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At least 829 records · Page 46
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2021

Climate Drivers of Arctic Tundra Variability and Change Using an Indicators Framework

This study applies an indicators framework to investigate climate drivers of tundra vegetation trends and variability over the 1982–2019 period. Previously known indicators relevant for tundra productivity (summer warmth index (SWI), coastal spring sea-ice (SI) area, coastal summer open-water (OW)) and three additional indicators (continentality, summer precipitation, and the Arctic Dipole (AD): second mode of sea level pressure variability) are analyzed with maximum annual Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (MaxNDVI) and the sum of summer bi-weekly (time-integrated) NDVI (TI-NDVI) from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer time-series. Climatological mean, trends, and correlations between variables are presented. Changes in SI continue to drive variations in the other indicators. As spring SI has decreased, summer OW, summer warmth, MaxNDVI, and TI-NDVI have increased. However, the initial very strong upward trends in previous studies for MaxNDVI and TI-NDVI are weakening and becoming spatially and temporally more variable as the ice retreats from the coastal areas. TI-NDVI has declined over the last decade particularly over High Arctic regions and southwest Alaska. The continentality index (CI) (maximum minus minimum monthly temperatures) is decreasing across the tundra, more so over North America than Eurasia. The relationship has weakened between SI and SWI and TI-NDVI, as the maritime influence of OW has increased along with total precipitation. The winter AD is correlated in Eurasia with spring SI, summer OW, MaxNDVI, TI-NDVI, the CI and total summer precipitation. This winter connection to tundra emphasizes the role of SI in driving the summer indicators. The winter (DJF) AD drives SI variations which in turn shape summer OW, the atmospheric SWI and NDVI anomalies. The winter and spring indicators represent potential predictors of tundra vegetation productivity a season or two in advance of the growing season.

Uma S. Bhatt↗
NASA NTRS2021

Estimation of Thermodynamic and Dynamic Contributions to Sea Ice Growth in the Central Arctic Using ICESat-2 and MOSAiC SIMBA Buoy Data

The fine spatial resolution of the ICESat-2 (IS2) satellite altimeter allows monitoring the evolution of sea ice thickness with detailed dynamic information (e.g. ridges and leads). In this study, we first assess the ability of IS2 to estimate thermodynamic ice growth and dynamic thickening during the ice-growing season in the central Arctic Ocean. As an indicator of the thermodynamic ice growth, we use 10 thermistor string-based sea ice mass balance array (SIMBA) buoys deployed at a scale of ~ 50 km from the Icebreaker Polarstern during the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition. We collect IS2 data within 20 km buffer distance from the individual buoys, and calculate the mode, median, and mean of the IS2-derived ice thickness. The IS2 modal thickness shows the least bias (−0.169 m) with the buoy ice thickness, representing level ice thickness. In addition, the increasing rate of the IS2 modal thickness is close to the thermodynamic ice growth with a small bias of −0.054 cm/day. However, the increasing rates of the IS2 median and mean thickness are greater than the thermodynamic ice growth by about 0.114 cm/day and 0.198 cm/day, respectively, because they also include ice growth caused by thickness redistribution during dynamic deformation. The dynamic contributions may account for 26.1 ± 10.3% and 34.4 ± 10.1% of the total increase of the IS2 median and mean thickness, respectively. Within a ~ 50 km radius area from the MOSAiC Central Observatory, IS2 measurements exhibit that the ridge fraction increased from <2% in November to ~ 4% in March (~0.029%/day of average increasing rate) and ridge height increased about 0.047 cm/day during the same period. However, lead formation does not show significant contributions to the dynamic ice thickening because leads are temporary features lasting only 2–3 days. Although there are considerable uncertainties in IS2 ice thickness estimation and IS2-buoy thickness comparison, this study emphasizes the importance of combining measurements by IS2 and SIMBA buoys to explain the regional sea ice mass balance with separating the thermodynamic and dynamic contributions.

satellite altimeter↗
NASA NTRS2021

Potential of Full-polarimetric P- and L-band Sar Data in Characterizing Post-fire Recovery of Arctic Tundra

We used the airborne full polarimetric L-band and P-band SAR (PolSAR) data collected from recent NASA ABoVE Arctic Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE) airborne campaign to understand the sensitivity of longwave radar backscatter intensity and phase to post-fire recovery process of Arctic tundra. The 2007 Anaktuvuk River fire was used as a case study. At 10-year post-fire, we observed a strong increase (>~4 dB) in both the P- and L-band radar backscatter in the severely burned areas, in contrast to limited backscatter differences (VV, VH) between burned and unburned areas at C-band. The polarimetric target decomposition analysis indicated a general trend towards more random surface scattering, and strong increases of the double-bounce and volumetric scattering power at both P- and L-band in the burned areas. Large differences were also observed in the Pauli phase angle and the dominant-scattering-type Touzi phase angle between the burned and unburned areas. The above changes are likely caused by increasing surface roughness and microtopography due to thermokarst development and ice degradation, and increasing subsurface scattering due to an overall drier and deeper active layer in the burned areas

Miller, Charles E.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Defining Burned Area in the Arctic: Examples from Small Fires in the Southeastern United States

Burning of small fires in the Arctic is important to climate change related processes and in the past the importance has been overlooked. Similarly, small fire burning in the Southeast United states has been underestimated and overlooked, but has just as much burned area as wildfires in the Western United States. Using FIREX-AQ campaign data, we are looking at the ability of satellites to detected the fires. Possible similarities in small fires between the Central and Southeastern US and the Arctic give ideas for collaboration and quantification of burned area.

Emily Gargulinski↗
NASA NTRS2022

The Radiative Effect on Cloud Microphysics from the Arctic to the Tropics

Cloud representation is one of the largest uncertainties in the current weather and climate models. In this article, the observations and modeling of the radiative effect on (cloud) microphysics (REM) from the Arctic to the Tropics are overviewed, providing a new direction to meet the challenge of cloud representation. REM deals with the radiation-induced temperature difference between cloud particles and air. It leads to two common phenomena observed at the surface—dew and frost—and impacts clouds aloft significantly, which is noticed via the wide occurrence of horizontally oriented ice crystals (HOICs). However, REM has been overlooked by all of the operational weather and climate models. Based on the bin model of REM and the global distribution of radiative cooling/warming, the observations of REM from several platforms (e.g., aircrafts, field campaigns, and satellites) are coordinated in this article, yielding a global picture on REM. As a result, the picture is compatible with the global distribution of HOICs and other ice crystal characteristics obtained from various clouds on the globe, such as diamond dust (or clear-sky precipitation) in the Arctic, sub-visual cirrus clouds in the tropical tropopause layer, and other cirrus clouds from the low to high latitudes. In addition, ice crystals possess relatively strong REM compared to liquid drops because their aspect ratio is usually not one. The global picture on REM can be used by the weather and climate modelers to diagnose their cloud representation biases. It can also be used to improve the atmospheric ice retrieval algorithm from satellite observations.

cloud microphysics↗
NASA NTRS2022

Effects of Increasing the Category Resolution of the Sea Ice Thickness Distribution in a Coupled Climate Model on Arctic and Antarctic Sea Ice Mean State

Many modern sea ice models used in global climate models represent the subgrid-scale heterogeneity in sea ice thickness with an ice thickness distribution (ITD), which improves model realism by representing the significant impact of the high spatial heterogeneity of sea ice thickness on thermodynamic and dynamic processes. Most models default to five thickness categories. However, little has been done to explore the effects of the resolution of this distribution (number of categories) on sea-ice feedbacks in a coupled model framework and resulting representation of the sea ice mean state. Here, we explore this using sensitivity experiments in CESM2 with the standard 5 ice thickness categories and 15 ice thickness categories. Increasing the resolution of the ITD in a run with preindustrial climate forcing results in substantially thicker Arctic sea ice year-round. Analyses show that this is a result of the ITD influence on ice strength. With 15 ITD categories, weaker ice occurs for the same average thickness, resulting in a higher fraction of ridged sea ice. In contrast, the higher resolution of thin ice categories results in enhanced heat conduction and bottom growth and leads to only somewhat increased winter Antarctic sea ice volume. The spatial resolution of the ICESat-2 satellite mission provides a new opportunity to compare model outputs with observations of seasonal evolution of the ITD in the Arctic (ICESat-2; 2018–2021). Comparisons highlight significant differences from the ITD modeled with both runs over this period, likely pointing to underlying issues contributing to the representation of average thickness.

Madison M. Smith↗
NASA NTRS2023

Summer Atmospheric Circulation Over Greenland in Response to Arctic Amplification and Diminished Spring Snow Cover

The exceptional atmospheric conditions that have accelerated Greenland Ice Sheet mass loss in recent decades have been repeatedly recognized as a possible dynamical response to Arctic amplification. Here, we present evidence of two potentially synergistic mechanisms linking high-latitude warming to the observed increase in Greenland blocking. Consistent with a prominent hypothesis associating Arctic amplification and persistent weather extremes, we show that the summer atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic has become wavier and link this wavier flow to more prevalent Greenland blocking. While a concomitant decline in terrestrial snow cover has likely contributed to this mechanism by further amplifying warming at high latitudes, we also show that there is a direct stationary Rossby wave response to low spring North American snow cover that enforces an anomalous anticyclone over Greenland, thus helping to anchor the ridge over Greenland in this wavier atmospheric state.

Atmospheric dynamics↗
NASA NTRS2023

A 1D Model for Nucleation of Ice From Aerosol Particles: An Application to a Mixed-Phase Arctic Stratus Cloud Layer

Mixed-phase clouds (MPCs) have been identified as significant contributors to uncertainties in climate projections, attributable to model representation of processes controlling the formation and loss of supercooled water droplets and ice particles from the atmosphere. Arctic MPCs are commonly widespread and long-lived, with sustained ice crystal formation processes that challenge current understanding. This study examines the ice-nucleating particle (INP) reservoir dynamics governing immersion-mode heterogeneous freezing in an observed case of Arctic MPCs using a simplified 1D aerosol-cloud model. The model setup includes prescribed dynamical forcings and thermodynamic profiles, and represents INPs as multicomponent and polydisperse particle size distributions. Diagnostic and prognostic approaches to immersion freezing parameterization are compared, including time-independent (singular) number- and surface area-based descriptions and a time-dependent description following classical nucleation theory (CNT). The choice of freezing parameterization defines the size of the INP reservoir. The CNT-based description yields an orders of magnitude larger INP reservoir than the singular parameterizations, which is the dominant factor for sustained ice crystal formation. The efficiency of the freezing process and cloud cooling are of secondary importance. A diagnostic treatment neglecting INP loss is only accurate when the INP reservoir size is large and INP depletion weak. Since a larger INP reservoir sustains ice crystal formation substantially longer, and ice water path scales with ice crystal concentrations for the conditions considered, resolving the source of differences in INP reservoir dynamics due to model implementation is a high priority for advancing climate model physics.

aerosol↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Supporting Arctic Research, Engagement, and Policy With GMAO’s Next Generation Reanalysis & Prediction Systems

Modeling efforts at NASA aim to advance scientific understanding of the Earth system and its response to natural and human-induced changes and to improve our ability to predict climate, weather, and natural hazards. These efforts are particularly relevant for communities, scientists and stakeholders working and living in the Arctic. Here, we highlight current and planned Earth system prediction and data assimilation products from the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO). We invite feedback and discussion on GMAO’s model and reanalysis development in support of Arctic research, engagement, and policy.

Lauren C Andrews↗
NASA NTRS2024

Integrating State Data Assimilation and Innovative Model Parameterization Reduces Simulated Carbon Uptake in the Arctic and Boreal Region

Model representation of carbon uptake and storage is essential for accurate projection of the response of the arctic‐boreal zone to a rapidly changing climate. Land model estimates of LAI and aboveground biomass that can have a marked influence on model projections of carbon uptake and storage vary substantially in the arctic and boreal zone, making it challenging to correctly evaluate model estimates of Gross Primary Productivity (GPP). To understand and correct bias of LAI and aboveground biomass in the Community Land Model (CLM), we assimilated the 8‐day Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) LAI observation and a machine learning product of annual aboveground biomass into CLM using an Ensemble Adjustment Kalman Filter (EAKF) in an experimental region including Alaska and Western Canada. Assimilating LAI and aboveground biomass reduced these model estimates by 58% and 72%, respectively. The change of aboveground biomass was consistent with independent estimates of canopy top height at both regional and site levels. The International Land Model Benchmarking system assessment showed that data assimilation significantly improved CLM's performance in simulating the carbon and hydrological cycles, as well as in representing the functional relationships between LAI and other variables. To further reduce the remaining bias in GPP after LAI bias correction, we re‐parameterized CLM to account for low temperature suppression of photosynthesis. The LAI bias corrected model that included the new parameterization showed the best agreement with model benchmarks. Combining data assimilation with model parameterization provides a useful framework to assess photosynthetic processes in LSMs.

land data assimilation↗
DOE OSTI2023

Analysis of Frost Prevention for Heat Recovery Ventilation in an Arctic Facility

Sub-Arctic environments present a unique challenge for the continuous operation of mechanical ventilation systems in occupied buildings where cold temperatures create complications for maintaining adequate air quality, efficiency, and system operability. Heat recovery ventilation is most difficult at the coldest temperatures, when there is the greatest availability to transfer heat between airstreams, due to the potential for frost accumulation in the exhaust airstream. Frost limits heat transfer and creates the potential for subsequent blockage of airflow. A successful frost prevention strategy is necessary to ensure that recovery ventilation systems function in locations with a large amount of annual heating degree days. Commonly, this is achieved by preheating outdoor air above freezing temperatures via airflow through a glycol-water mix hydronic coil before heat exchange occurs. Preheating the outdoor air proactively inhibits frost formation but is associated with a penalty to recovery efficiency. A commercial-scale heat recovery ventilator in a facility in Fairbanks, Alaska was analyzed for sensible recovery effectiveness and exhaust temperature at different winter conditions. The system utilized the common defrost strategy of preheating the air above-freezing with a static temperature control scheme. The heat transfer efficiency of the recovery ventilator was observed to be poor at various winter conditions with elevated exhaust temperatures indicating lost heat recovery effectiveness. Using prior findings on strategies for sub-freezing temperatures along with observed field conditions it was determined that a dynamic relationship between the coil and the exterior conditions would reduce the energy required to preheat the air and allow the heat exchanger to maximize effectiveness due to temperate difference. This reduction in preheated temperature of the air is achieved by modulating the temperature of the coil to keep the discharge air stream above a certain dewpoint temperature threshold, likely leading to energy savings for other sub-Arctic facilities using this frost control strategy.

ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Arctic shrub size and leaf traits, northern Alaska, summer 2017 (Version 2.0)

This data package contains leaf and size trait and environmental data collected from 170 plots of rapidly expanding shrub genera (Alnus, Betula, and Salix) and a widespread sedge (Eriophorum vaginatum) along a latitudinal and climate gradient in northern Alaska. The trait data were collected in summer 2017 and include leaf area, specific leaf area, leaf nitrogen concentration, leaf delta 15N, leaf delta 13C, shrub height, aboveground biomass, and the ratio of root biomass to aboveground biomass. These raw data support a submitted manuscript that examines the intraspecific variations of size, leaf and root traits of shrubs across the graminoid-dominated nutrient-poor arctic tundra and reveals the environmental drivers of deciduous shrub traits in tundra ecosystems (Fraterrigo et al., submitted). Data are presented by site (n=5) and patch (shrub or sedge plot) in separate csv files. The location data are provided in the “plot coordinates” file; all other files contain the data in the file title. Detailed methods are in the submitted manuscript. A companion data package contains root trait data collected simultaneously from the same plots (Fraterrigo and Chen, 2020). See the "Related references" section for more information.2023/07/20 Update: The latest version of this dataset publication is version 2.0. The latest version of the data package was updated to correct the leaf size trait.csv file.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Arctic shrub and Eriophorum leaf and root decomposition, northern Alaska, 2017-2018

This data package contains litter decomposition data collected from 170 plots of rapidly expanding shrub genera (Alnus, Betula, and Salix) and a widespread sedge (Eriophorum vaginatum) along a latitudinal and temperature gradient in northern Alaska. These data were produced from a litter bag experiment that took place from July 2017 to July 2018 and include mass loss and nitrogen loss decomposition metrics for both leaf and root litters. These raw data support a submitted manuscript that examines the variability in decomposition between shrub and graminoid leaf and root litters across a 1-year experiment across the graminoid-dominated Arctic tundra and reveals how deciduous shrub expansion affects litter decomposition in tundra ecosystems. Data are presented by site (n=5) and patch (shrub or sedge plot) in csv files. The site and plot location data and environmental measurement data are provided in Fraterrigo and Chen (2020). Additional methods regarding plot distribution and environmental measurements are in Chen et al. (2020) and Fraterrigo et al. (2024).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Wave energy converter buoy for Arctic observations

Ocean observation buoys are currently powered-constrained by battery storage capacity or available solar power. Power constraints limit the number of measurements that can be made and the lifetime of the buoys. Ocean surface wave energy could be used for power production, but wave energy converters are not yet commercially available for ocean observation buoys. Here we present the design and testing of a drifting wave energy converter buoy using a pendulum transmission system (PTS). The wave energy converter buoy was designed to operate in Arctic temperatures and wave conditions, but it could be used in areas with warmer temperatures and larger waves. Field tests measured a maximum power production of 5 watts in waves with a significant wave height of 0.42 meters and a ten minute average power production of 37 milliwatts. Power production increased with the energy period and significant wave height. The energy harvesting capabilities of the PTS showed the utility of adding a wave energy conversion device to a drifting ocean observation buoy.

Arctic observations↗
DOE OSTI2026

Performance evaluation of CMIP6 models on the Arctic-Siberian Plain teleconnection affecting the East Asian heat waves

The frequency and intensity of summer heat waves in East Asia have increased sharply in recent decades, significantly impacting public health and the economy. The Arctic-Siberian Plain (ASP) teleconnection pattern has been identified as a key driver, with ASP warming amplifying atmospheric circulation patterns conducive to extreme temperatures. This study evaluates the ability of Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 6 models to simulate the ASP pattern across interannual variability (IAV) and intra-seasonal variability (ISV) timescales using the Common Basis Function method. The multi-model mean shows statistically significant pattern correlations with ERA5 reanalysis, with correlation coefficients of 0.90 and 0.99 for IAV and ISV, respectively. While the ASP pattern is generally well captured, models exhibit substantial inter-model diversity in the intensity and position of anticyclonic anomalies over the ASP and East Asia. Models with ASP pattern variability similar to reanalysis better reproduce extreme East Asian temperatures, whereas those over- or underestimating ASP variability exhibit lower skill. These performance differences are related to differences in simulating key variables associated with the development of the ASP pattern. Our findings highlight the role of the ASP pattern in modulating extreme heat events, as models with improved ASP simulations align more closely with observed temperature extremes. Refining ASP representations in models could enhance seasonal heat wave predictions, improving climate adaptation strategies.

Arctic-Siberian Plain (ASP)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Snow Distribution Patterns Revisited: A Physics-Based and Machine Learning Hybrid Approach to Snow Distribution Mapping in the Sub-Arctic

Snowpack distribution in Arctic and alpine landscapes often occurs in repeating, year-to-year patterns due to local topographic, weather, and vegetation characteristics. Previous studies have suggested that with years of observational data, these snow distribution patterns can be statistically integrated into a snow process modeling workflow. Recent advances in snow hydrology and machine learning (ML) have increased our ability to predict snowpack distribution using in-situ observations, remote sensing data sets, and simple landscape characteristics that can be easily obtained for most environments. Here, we propose a hybrid approach to couple a ML snow distribution pattern (MLSDP) map with a physics-based, snow process model. We trained a random forest ML algorithm on tens of thousands of snow survey observations from a subarctic study area on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska, collected during peak snow water equivalent (SWE). We validated hybrid model outputs using in-situ snow depth and SWE observations, as well as a light detection and ranging data set and a distributed temperature profiling sensor data set. When the hybrid results were compared with the physics-based method, the hybrid method more accurately depicted the spatial patterns of the snowpack, areas of drifting snow, and years when no in-situ observations were used in the random forest ML training data set. The hybrid method also showed improvements in root mean squared error at 61% of locations where time-series estimations of snow depth were observed. These results can be applied to any physics-based model to improve the snow distribution patterning to reflect observed conditions in high latitude and high elevation cold region environments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Continuous observations of the surface energy budget and meteorology over the Arctic sea ice during MOSAiC

Abstract The Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) was a yearlong expedition supported by the icebreaker R/V Polarstern , following the Transpolar Drift from October 2019 to October 2020. The campaign documented an annual cycle of physical, biological, and chemical processes impacting the atmosphere-ice-ocean system. Of central importance were measurements of the thermodynamic and dynamic evolution of the sea ice. A multi-agency international team led by the University of Colorado/CIRES and NOAA-PSL observed meteorology and surface-atmosphere energy exchanges, including radiation; turbulent momentum flux; turbulent latent and sensible heat flux; and snow conductive flux. There were four stations on the ice, a 10 m micrometeorological tower paired with a 23/30 m mast and radiation station and three autonomous Atmospheric Surface Flux Stations. Collectively, the four stations acquired ~928 days of data. This manuscript documents the acquisition and post-processing of those measurements and provides a guide for researchers to access and use the data products.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluation of simulated soil carbon dynamics in Arctic-Boreal ecosystems

Given the magnitude of soil carbon stocks in northern ecosystems, and the vulnerability of these stocks to climate warming, land surface models must accurately represent soil carbon dynamics in these regions. We evaluate soil carbon stocks and turnover rates, and the relationship between soil carbon loss with soil temperature and moisture, from an ensemble of eleven global land surface models. We focus on the region of NASA's Arctic-Boreal vulnerability experiment (ABoVE) in North America to inform data collection and model development efforts. Models exhibit an order of magnitude difference in estimates of current total soil carbon stocks, generally under- or overestimating the size of current soil carbon stocks by greater than 50 PgC. We find that a model's soil carbon stock at steady-state in 1901 is the prime driver of its soil carbon stock a hundred years later—overwhelming the effect of environmental forcing factors like climate. The greatest divergence between modeled and observed soil carbon stocks is in regions dominated by peat and permafrost soils, suggesting that models are failing to capture the frozen soil carbon dynamics of permafrost regions. Using a set of functional benchmarks to test the simulated relationship of soil respiration to both soil temperature and moisture, we find that although models capture the observed shape of the soil moisture response of respiration, almost half of the models examined show temperature sensitivities, or Q10 values, that are half of observed. Significantly, models that perform better against observational constraints of respiration or carbon stock size do not necessarily perform well in terms of their functional response to key climatic factors like changing temperature. This suggests that models may be arriving at the right result, but for the wrong reason. The results of this work can help to bridge the gap between data and models by both pointing to the need to constrain initial carbon pool sizes, as well as highlighting the importance of incorporating functional benchmarks into ongoing, mechanistic modeling activities such as those included in ABoVE.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗