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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Inverse Reinforcement Learning based Bayesian Goal Inference Method for Early Nuclear Proliferation Detection

Traditional methods for detection of nuclear proliferation indicators are usually applied after nuclear proliferation has already occurred. There is a need to advance these methods to perform early detection of nuclear proliferation indicators. In this project, we formulated an early detection problem as a sequential, decision-making, goal inference problem based on research publications of authors, to determine whether it is possible to infer whether an author will publish on a research activity before it has occurred. To develop and test our approach, we selected a civil nuclear activity for our case study. We constructed a state-action-state transition graph from publications of authors associated with the activity and the co-authors of their publications, using titles, abstracts, and author publication sequences. We then used inverse reinforcement learning to model the goal-directed behavior of authors in trajectories that terminate at selected goal states. Using a Bayesian formulation, we computed the probability that authors would reach each selected state from partially observed trajectories of their state transitions in their research topic space. The state with the highest probability was selected as the most probable goal state. Based on our results, we found that 60% of the times we can infer the correct goal state early; sometimes the inference is either delayed, or multiple states could be inferred as goal states. Overall, our results show that it is possible to perform early detection of research activities of authors in a nuclear technology area. Further research is necessary to establish a more accurate understanding of how topic modeling, topic space grid discretization, and the extent of overlap among trajectories of different goal states, affect the goal inference results. The methods developed in this work may be used to enhance data-driven methods for early detection of nuclear proliferation indicators.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Transfer learning for smart buildings: A critical review of algorithms, applications, and future perspectives

Smart buildings play a crucial role toward decarbonizing society, as globally buildings emit about one-third of greenhouse gases. In the last few years, machine learning has achieved a notable momentum that, if properly harnessed, may unleash its potential for advanced analytics and control of smart buildings, enabling the technique to scale up for supporting the decarbonization of the building sector. In this perspective, transfer learning aims to improve the performance of a target learner exploiting knowledge in related environments. The present work provides a comprehensive overview of transfer learning applications in smart buildings, classifying and analyzing 77 papers according to their applications, algorithms, and adopted metrics. The study identified four main application areas of transfer learning: (1) building load prediction, (2) occupancy detection and activity recognition, (3) building dynamics modeling, and (4) energy systems control. Furthermore, the review highlighted the role of deep learning in transfer learning applications that has been used in more than half of the analyzed studies. The paper also discusses how to integrate transfer learning in a smart building's ecosystem, identifying, for each application area, the research gaps and guidelines for future research directions.

Pinto, G↗
DOE OSTI2024

Two-Step Hyperparameter Optimization Method: Accelerating Hyperparameter Search by Using a Fraction of a Training Dataset

Abstract Hyperparameter optimization (HPO) is an important step in machine learning (ML) model development, but common practices are archaic—primarily relying on manual or grid searches. This is partly because adopting advanced HPO algorithms introduces added complexity to the workflow, leading to longer computation times. This poses a notable challenge to ML applications, as suboptimal hyperparameter selections curtail the potential of ML model performance, ultimately obstructing the full exploitation of ML techniques. In this article, we present a two-step HPO method as a strategic solution to curbing computational demands and wait times, gleaned from practical experiences in applied ML parameterization work. The initial phase involves a preliminary evaluation of hyperparameters on a small subset of the training dataset, followed by a reevaluation of the top-performing candidate models postretraining with the entire training dataset. This two-step HPO method is universally applicable across HPO search algorithms, and we argue it has attractive efficiency gains. As a case study, we present our recent application of the two-step HPO method to the development of neural network emulators for aerosol activation. Although our primary use case is a data-rich limit with many millions of samples, we also find that using up to 0.0025% of the data—a few thousand samples—in the initial step is sufficient to find optimal hyperparameter configurations from much more extensive sampling, achieving up to 135× speedup. The benefits of this method materialize through an assessment of hyperparameters and model performance, revealing the minimal model complexity required to achieve the best performance. The assortment of top-performing models harvested from the HPO process allows us to choose a high-performing model with a low inference cost for efficient use in global climate models (GCMs).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Recent Progress in Solid‐State Lithium Batteries through Cathode Microstructure Engineering

A high‐performance cathode is necessary to realize the great potentials of solid‐state batteries such as high energy density and long cycle life. It is also needed to validate electrolyte performance, which is lacking. Currently, cathodes for solid‐state batteries are thinner and have lower cathode active material content than their lithium‐ion battery counterpart, resulting from insufficient conductivity and limiting the battery energy density. This review article provides an overview of recent development in cathode microstructures and their impact on battery properties, including compatibility between cathode and electrolyte, cathode architecture design, interface engineering, correlation between material properties, cathode processing approaches, and performance, as well as the advanced characterization methods used to understand the above correlations . Some perspectives on future development are shared including utilizing in situ and operando characterization tools to better understand dynamic evolution of the cathode/electrolyte interface, adapting artificial intelligence and machine learning to design and optimize cathode structures. The article is aimed to promote research interest on cathode development and advance solid‐state battery technologies.

cathode engineering↗
DOE OSTI2025

Transforming Aeration Energy in Water Resource Recovery Facilities (WRRFs) through Suboxic Nitrogen Removal (Final Report)

The objective of this project was to advance two key technological components—aeration control strategies and process design methodologies—to support the development and broader adoption of suboxic biological nitrogen removal (SBNR). The project focused on achieving the following three goals: • Enhance Model Predictive Control (MPC) Technology: Advance the DO/Nmaster MPC platform from its initial 2018 pilot deployment at the Chico Water Resource Recovery Facility in California to full-scale integration. This included partnering with a blower technology commercialization partner and incorporating machine learning (ML) capabilities to enable nationwide deployment. • Bridge Knowledge Gaps in SBNR Process Design: Address fundamental gaps in SBNR process understanding through controlled pilot-scale testing at a dedicated pilot facility. These efforts supported the development of robust kinetic models to inform reliable SBNR control, operational strategies, and design frameworks. • Demonstrate Full-Scale Implementation of Low DO/SBNR with ML: Transition low dissolved oxygen (DO)/SBNR coupled with ML from pilot-scale trials to full-scale demonstration in flow-through biological nutrient removal (BNR) systems, with the goal of enabling scalable, nationwide adoption in activated sludge treatment processes. The project included demonstration of SBNR at the pilot scale as performed by Hampton Roads Sanitation District (HRSD) and at the full-scale as performed by the Los Angeles County Sanitation Districts' (LACSD) Pomona Water Reclamation Plant (POWRP).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Estimating building occupancy: a machine learning system for day, night, and episodic events

Building occupancy research increasingly emphasizes understanding the social and physical dynamics of how people occupy space. Opportunities in the open source domain including social media, Volunteered Geographic Information, crowdsourcing, and sensor data have proliferated, resulting in the exploration of building occupancy dynamics at varying spatiotemporal scales. At Oak Ridge National Laboratory, research into building occupancies through the development of a global learning framework that accommodates exploitation of open source authoritative sources, including governmental census and surveys, journal articles, real estate databases, and more, to report national and subnational building occupancies across the world continues through the Population Density Tables (PDT) project. This probabilistic learning system accommodates expert knowledge, experience, and open-source data to capture local, socioeconomic, and cultural information about human activity. It does so through a systematic process of data harmonization techniques in the development of observation models for over 50 building types to dynamically update baseline estimates and report probabilistic diurnal and episodic building occupancy estimates. This discussion will explore how PDT is implemented at scale and expanded based on the development of observation model classes and will explain how to interpret and spatially apply the reported probability occupancy estimates and uncertainty.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

Active- and transfer-learning applied to microscale-macroscale coupling to simulate viscoelastic flows

Active- and transfer-learning are applied to microscale dynamics of polymer flows for the multiscale discovery of effective constitutive approximations required in viscoelastic flow simulation. The result is macroscopic rheology directly connected to a microstructural model. Micro and macroscale simulations are adaptively coupled by means of Gaussian process regression (GPR) to run the expensive microscale computations only as necessary. This multiscale method is demonstrated with flows of a polymer solution as a model system. At the microscale level dissipative particle dynamics (DPD) is employed to model the fluid as a suspension of bead-spring micro-structures subjected to steady shear flow. The results yield the non-Newtonian viscosity and the first normal stress difference at strain rates as training data used in a GPR model. DPD parameters are calibrated with respect to experimental data for a real polymer solution. Compliance with these data requires adjustment of the DPD model's cutoff radius, which then becomes a function of the second invariant of the strain rate tensor. The FENE-P model is chosen for the macroscale description using the spectral element method (SEM) to simulate channel flow and flow past a circular cylinder. The DPD results at the lowest possible shear strain rate yield an estimate of the zero-shear rate viscosity, which allows the initiation of the macroscale flow by SEM as a Newtonian fluid. The resulting strain-rate field is surveyed to determine additional shear strain rate sampling points for the DPD system. This new information allows an initial fitting of parameters of the constitutive equation followed by new SEM simulations at the macroscale. Additionally, guided by active-learning GPR to select new sampling points, this process continues until convergence is achieved. The effectiveness of this new simulation paradigm for viscoelastic flows is tested with different macroscale operating conditions. The effective closure learned in the channel simulation is then transferred directly to the flow past a circular cylinder at low Reynolds number, where the results show that only two additional DPD simulations are required to achieve a satisfactory constitutive model. With an increase of the Reynolds number, the active-learning scheme automatically detects the inaccuracy of the learned constitutive model, and initiates additional DPD simulations for the extra data needed to once again close the microscale-macroscale coupled system. This new paradigm of active- and transfer-learning for multiscale modeling is readily applicable to other microscale-macroscale coupled simulations of complex fluids and other materials. Furthermore, the coupling between microscale and macroscale solvers can be seamlessly implemented with our open source multiscale universal interface (MUI) library.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2026

Expanding the Domain of Applicability of Machine Learning Models with Limited Data for Drug Property Prediction

Accurate machine learning models for predicting small molecule interactions with biological targets are essential for therapeutic discovery, biothreat response, and computational drug design, but their performance is often limited for understudied targets with sparse experimental data. To address this challenge, we developed and evaluated methods to improve molecular property prediction under low-data conditions, using the NimA-related kinase (NEK) family as a proof-of-concept. This work focused on two complementary goals within the ATOM Modeling PipeLine (AMPL) and the Generative Molecular Design (GMD) loop: expanding model applicability through transfer learning, representation learning, feature scaling, sampling strategies, and active-learning-inspired compound selection; and enabling efficient virtual screening to prioritize compounds that balance predicted activity, design objectives, and synthetic accessibility.

organic↗
DOE OSTI2021

Extract useful information from building permits data to profile a city’s building retrofit history

Building retrofit is one of the key strategies for cities to reduce energy use and GHG emissions. The historical information about changes to buildings is crucial to infer the buildings’ current energy system efficiency levels and to identify candidate buildings for retrofit. In general, a building permit is required before the start of any construction activity of a building, such as changing building structure, remodeling, or installing new equipment. Moreover, many large cities provide public datasets of building permits in history. Therefore, the permits are a potentially good resource for mining information on the city’s retrofit history. In this study, we use the permit dataset from the city of San Francisco as a case study. Location and time information from the dataset is also used to depict the retrofit timeline of each building and the whole building stock. The type of work of the permit is inferred from the descriptive text by a machine learning model. At last, the limitations of the current permit dataset and potential improvements on the permit data management are discussed to better utilize the information in the future.

Zhang, Wanni↗
DOE OSTI2020

Autonomous Navigation and Control of UGVs' in Nuclear Power Plants - 20381

The purpose of the husky A200 ground robot is to autonomously navigate through the places where it is very hazardous for human beings to reach and operate, like nuclear power plants, chemical industries. The aim is to navigate the ground robot autonomously with an Arm mounted on the robot along with the different sensors as camera, and Lidar. The autonomous motion of the robot is controlled by the controller which uses path planner for trajectory generation of the robot. The mission planner uses the current position of the husky A200, given the way points of the initial and the destination it would extract a best possible route based on the current events provided using GMapping. The global reference frame is used for planning the way points. Creating the appropriate path and the actions required to follow the path are given by the motion planner. The motion planner depends on the active sensor data such as obstacles, lanes, based on the sensor data feasible path is generated. Feasibility of the path is determined by the dynamics of the husky and a series of points generated with certain velocity and acceleration profile. The controller adjusts the lateral, longitudinal and yaw motion of the husky to command the behaviors. The kinematic model is developed for kinematic motion of the husky and the dynamic model is developed for transient and steady state characteristics. The images and other type of data captured by the camera are processed through the computational framework used to build machine learning models. TensorFlow will be used for deep learning and to identify and classify different objects around the husky. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2025

What Makes Au Nanospheres Superior to Octahedral and Cubic Counterparts for the Deposition of a Pt Monolayer Shell?

This study demonstrates that Au nanospheres are advantageous over their octahedral and cubic counterparts as seeds in the synthesis of Au@Pt core−shell nanocrystals with a monolayer shell. In combination with experimental characterization, we show through training a machine-learned interatomic potential that the Au nanospheres exhibit a large fraction of lowcoordination atoms which are uniformly distributed over the surface. The corresponding high-index facets, including {211}, {311}, {331}, {210}, and {310}, on a spherical seed promote nucleation while greatly shortening the diffusion distance for adatoms. In addition, the high-index facets are instrumental in retaining the deposited Pt atoms on the outermost surface by retarding their inter-diffusional exchange with the underlying Au atoms. By switching from a monolayer made of pure Pt to those made of Pt−Au alloys, we can optimize both the activity and selectivity of the nanocrystals toward the two-electron oxygen reduction reaction for the electrochemical synthesis of H 2 O 2 . This method should be extendible to the fabrication of other core−shell nanocatalysts with desired monolayer shells for various catalytic reactions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

"Russians in the Grid" Enrichment Process

Threat intelligence sources are numerous, and the quality of their intelligence is equally variable. The need for quality, actionable, and shareable intelligence is becoming increasingly important as cyber-threats continue to increase. In this paper, we describe the process we used to enrich U.S. CERT’s Technical Alert entitled “Russian Government Cyber-Activity Targeting Energy and Other Critical Infrastructure Sectors,” affectionately referred to as “Russians In the Grid,” from a series of separate but related reports to a final, actionable, unified Structured Threat Information Expression (STIX) v2 representation of the report. In the process, we detail the tools and procedures we used, some of which are automated and others highly manual. We identify some of the limitations of current STIX enrichment tools and techniques, and propose enhancements to allow for more effective enrichment and better overall threat intelligence to be used for more effective threat data-sharing, as well as machine learning-based predictive threat work being conducted at Idaho National Laboratory.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2022

On the similarity of hillslope hydrologic function: a clustering approach based on groundwater changes

Abstract. Hillslope similarity is an active topic in hydrology because of its importance in improving our understanding of hydrologic processes and enabling comparisons and paired studies. In this study, we propose a holistic bottom-up hillslope clustering based on a region's integrative hydrodynamic response quantified by the seasonal changes in groundwater levels ΔP. The main advantage of the ΔP clustering is its ability to capture recharge and discharge processes. We test the performance of the ΔP clustering by comparing it to seven other common hillslope clustering approaches. These include clustering approaches based on the aridity index, topographic wetness index, elevation, land cover, and machine-learning that jointly integrate multiple data. We assess the ability of these clustering approaches to identify and categorize hillslopes with similar static characteristics, hydroclimate, land surface processes, and subsurface dynamics in a mountainous watershed – the East River – located in the headwaters of the Upper Colorado River Basin. The ΔP clustering performs very well in identifying hillslopes with six out of the nine characteristics studied. The variability among clusters as quantified by the coefficient of variation (0.2) is less in the ΔP and the machine learning approaches than in the others (> 0.3 for TWI, elevation, and land cover). We further demonstrate the robustness of the ΔP clustering by testing its ability to predict hillslope responses to wet and dry hydrologic conditions, of which it performs well when based on average conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

In the Mix : A Workshop Merging Computational Chemistry and Electrochemistry Alongside Data Science

As chemistry expands to more complex and interdisciplinary areas, a new generation of diverse researchers must engage with science and learn effective cross-disciplinary collaboration and communication. To these ends, we designed and implemented In the Mix, a graduate student-led, two-day workshop for undergraduate students promoting collaborative science in the context of energy storage innovations. Here, the interactive workshop was designed for future and emerging researchers to gain hands-on experience with data science, computational chemistry, and electrochemistry techniques that are critical for developing materials for battery technologies. Participants also visited commercial renewable energy facilities to help them connect discovery-based research with industry and broader societal considerations. The workshop content and structure ensured that participants experienced the interrelatedness of the fields and understood the importance of collaborative research to yield scientific advances with real-world applications. An external team evaluated the workshop and participants’ perceptions of their experiences. While our research context was energy storage, the workshop goals and outcomes are applicable to other contexts. Interdisciplinary, experiential workshops are a key avenue to broadening participation in science and research, and the ideas presented here can be readily modified for other scientific contexts and/or incorporated as broader impact activities.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Charge accumulation and solvation in $β$-NiOOH: Surface chemistry of an OER catalyst from ML-aided simulations

Electrochemical water splitting is a key technology for a sustainable energy transition, providing a route to store surplus electricity from renewable sources. A central bottleneck is the sluggish oxygen evolution reaction (OER), which drives the search for catalysts that are active, stable, and inexpensive enough for large-scale deployment. Within this context, pure and doped NiO x H y combine high activity with low cost, making them prime candidates for alkaline OER. Yet, despite extensive study, the atomistic structure of NiOOH under operando conditions and the associated reaction mechanisms remain debated. Here, we investigate the structural complexity of pure β-NiOOH, the scaffold for its doped derivatives. We systematically investigate the oxidation of the surface adsorbates via proton-coupled electron transfer steps across relevant facets and sites, identifying the most probable sequence of deprotonation events. Our results reveal asymmetric charge accumulation on Wulff-relevant surfaces and show how applied potential can promote morphological restructuring. Explicit solvation is included through machine-learning interatomic potential molecular dynamics of the NiOOH/water interface, which allows us to resolve the hydrophobic and hydrophilic character of different surfaces and the associated interfacial water structure. Together, these insights demonstrate how surface chemistry and solvation jointly govern the stability of NiOOH and the accumulation of surface charge, with possible implications for catalytic performance.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Cognitive IoT and Edge Computing for Intrusion Detection with Federated TinyML

Internet of Things (IoT) and Edge Computing (EC) are rapidly becoming an integral part of the modern society. By 2030, there is estimated to be over 40 billion active and connected IoT devices [1]. This rapid progress also comes with a significant implication on cybersecurity. Back-end infrastructure and systems have a much broader attack than they did previously due to vulnerable IoT/EC devices being connected to wireless networks. This expanding attack surface is a growing concern because IoT/EC are increasingly being used in critical systems such as power grids, health care, and smart homes. To effectively address a problem of this scale, cognitive cyber methods—which can autonomously detect and react to cyber attacks as they develop—are needed. To address this, we bring Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) to IoT/EC devices, using tinyML to monitor voluminous IoT data against cyber threats, and using Federated Learning (FL) to share local detection knowledge across the system while preserving privacy. We propose a novel three-layer architecture: (1) an IoT layer for tinyML-based inference, (2) an edge layer for ML model training, and (3) a cloud layer for FL operations. Using the publicly available 11-class N-BaIoT dataset [2], we demonstrate that this architecture mitigates resource constraints at the IoT layer while improving detection accuracy over standard two-layer designs. An outlier-resistant scaler, feature reduction, and quantization enable the tinyML model to maintain detection accuracy with a reduced model size. Additionally, federated learning that only utilizes the intersection (across heterogenous devices) of the reduced feature set achieves superior detection accuracy compared to locally trained models.

Li, Mingyan [ORNL] (ORCID:0009000569532640)↗
DOE OSTI2020

Computationally Predicted High-Throughput Free-Energy Phase Diagrams for the Discovery of Solid-State Hydrogen Storage Reactions

The design of multinary solid-state material systems that undergo reversible phase changes via changes in temperature and pressure provides a potential means of safely storing hydrogen. However, fully mapping the stabilities of known or newly targeted compounds relative to competing phases at reaction conditions has previously required many stringent experiments or computationally demanding calculations of each compound’s change in Gibbs energy with respect to temperature, G(T). Here, we have extended the approach of constructing chemical potential phase diagrams based on ΔG f (T) to enable the analysis of phase stability at non-zero temperatures. We first performed density functional theory calculations to compute the formation enthalpies of binary, ternary, and quaternary compounds within several compositional spaces of current interest for solid-state hydrogen storage. Temperature effects on solid compound stability were then accounted for using our recently introduced machine learned descriptor for the temperature-dependent contribution G δ (T) to the Gibbs energy G(T). From these Gibbs energies, we evaluated each compound’s stability relative to competing compounds over a wide range of conditions and show using chemical potential and composition phase diagrams that the predicted stable phases and H2 release reactions are consistent with experimental observations. This demonstrates that our approach rapidly computes the thermochemistry of hydrogen release reactions for compounds at sufficiently high accuracy relative to experiment to provide a powerful framework for analyzing hydrogen storage materials. This framework based on G(T) enables the accelerated discovery of active materials for a variety of technologies that rely on solid-state reactions involving these materials.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2026

EXERGETIC: De-Risking Next-Generation Resilient Geothermal Hybrids via At-Scale Evaluation Using Virtual Emulation Digital Twin Environment for Efficient Operation

The DOE-GTO-funded project, award number 5.1.2.12, entitled "EXERGETIC - De-risking Next Generation Resilient Geothermal Hybrids via at-Scale Evaluation Using a Virtual Emulation Digital Twin Environment for Efficient Operation," advances the solution to these challenges by developing and validating a geothermal co-emulation environment implemented at the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR)'s Advanced Research on Integrated Energy Systems (ARIES) platform. This framework enables the de-risking of next-generation geothermal and geothermal hybrid systems through high-fidelity modeling, real-time digital emulation, advanced control strategies, and techno-economic assessment. The project focused on geothermal hybrid configurations that integrate geothermal power plants with concentrated solar power and underground thermal energy storage, enabling enhanced efficiency, flexibility, and grid support capabilities. The main goal of this project was the development of a geothermal digital co-emulation environment to demonstrate the technical and economic value of geothermal hybrid systems and their contribution to grid stability and flexibility. The EXERGETIC framework combined physics-based models, controls, and real assets at ARIES, including digital real-time simulators (DRTS), a 20-MW-scale controllable grid interface (CGI), and a 2-MW conventional generator. Detailed transient models were developed for the key subsystems of a hybrid geothermal plant, including parabolic trough solar collectors, reservoir thermal energy storage (RTES), and a binary Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) power plant. The ORC model explicitly captured thermal inertia and off-design operation and integrated control strategies to dynamically respond to electric load profiles. The models were validated against published experimental and numerical studies, demonstrating strong agreement and confirming the accuracy and robustness of the modeling approach. The resulting digital twin represents geothermal-solar-storage systems at multiple scales (1 MW to 100 MW) and enables realistic emulation of grid-connected operation. The control architecture allows the geothermal resource to provide stable baseload generation, while solar and stored thermal energy supply flexible, dispatchable support during periods of high demand or variable grid conditions. A key contribution of the EXERGETIC project is the demonstration that geothermal hybrid systems can be designed to be active grid assets rather than passive baseload generators. Using the ARIES platform, the digital twin was evaluated under multiple grid scenarios, including load following, voltage support at the distribution level, and frequency response at the transmission level. Results show that hybrid geothermal systems can respond effectively to dynamic grid conditions, providing inertia-like behavior, primary frequency support, and voltage regulation through coordinated control. In addition to the performance and grid services capability analysis of geothermal and hybrid geothermal systems, the EXERGETIC project also focused on scalability and techno-economic analysis of geothermal hybrid plants. In particular, for the scalability analysis, machine-learning (ML)-based surrogate models were trained using data generated from the geothermal digital twin under different grid-connected scenarios and plant capacities. These ML models demonstrated strong interpolation and extrapolation capabilities across plant sizes, accurately reproducing both steady-state and transient responses with very low errors. Regarding the techno-economic analysis, plant performance results were integrated with cost models for hybrid geothermal systems, and the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) was used as the main economic metric to evaluate system performance across a range of system capacities, solar shares, solar multiples, and storage durations. Results indicate that economies of scale significantly reduce geothermal LCOE as plant capacity increases, with large-scale systems (25-100 MW) achieving substantially lower costs than small plants. Hybridization with solar thermal energy and storage further improves economic performance by increasing capacity utilization and enabling flexible dispatch. In addition, thermal storage plays a critical role in reducing LCOE by maximizing geothermal, solar, and stored energy resources. In summary, the results from this project demonstrate that geothermal hybrid systems represent a promising alternative for increasing the energy conversion efficiency of geothermal technologies, contributing to the preservation of geothermal resources, and supporting the transition of geothermal plants from traditional baseload resources into flexible, resilient, and cost-competitive energy conversion technologies.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗