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Advancing uncertainty characterization for understanding projected water scarcity in multi-sector, multi-actor river basins across scales.

Invited Talk at AGU Fall Meeting 2023 Modeling how human institutions and infrastructure interact with the water cycle is essential to better understand the vulnerability, and resilience of water resources systems from the local to the global scale. This is especially true when investigating multi-sector, multi-actor responses to the effects of long-term changes and short-term shocks. It is also well recognized that uncertainty present throughout the modeling cycle (e.g., in data, functional relations, and model coupling approaches) limits our ability to trace the interactive dynamics of human-water systems, as well as to quantify their implications for management and planning. Systems with large numbers of diverse stakeholders further compound this challenge, as uncertain drivers and complex dynamics might have very disparate effects on water users. The work presented is conducted through the Integrated Multisector Multiscale Modeling (IM3) Science Focus Area, which explores how human and natural systems co-evolve in response to change. Through this multi-year effort, we have developed exploratory modeling methods to better characterize how the uncertain human and natural drivers of water scarcity yield consequential vulnerabilities in institutionally complex, multi-sectoral systems. This talk will specifically present on a series of uncertainty characterization experiments performed in the Upper Colorado River Basin, a sub-basin of the Colorado with thousands of water users. These complementary and systematic experiments are aimed at understanding: How are various uncertain stressors (e.g., climate change, demand growth) affecting the diverse water users of this basin in terms of water shortage? What are the key drivers of this shortage for each user? Methods and results from this work are used to address additional questions on the ability of adaptation to modulate the effects of these uncertain drivers, and on their compounding effects across spatial scales and through sectoral interactions.

Hadjimichael, Antonia↗

An attached microalgae platform for recycling phosphorus through biologically mediated fertilizer formation and biomass cultivation

Nutrient management is a global challenge for protecting water bodies from eutrophication and for retaining and sustainably recycling phosphorus within the biosphere. This challenge is especially important for water resource recovery facilities (WRRFs) in jurisdictions that limit nutrient loads in plant effluent. A microalgae-based biofilm platform has been designed, constructed, and tested to remove phosphorus and nitrogen from anaerobic digester (AD) effluent filtrate through cultivating biomass and inducing the precipitation of a mineral called struvite (NH₄MgPO₄ · 6H₂O) using a rotating algae biofilm reactor (RABR). RABRs function by rotating a growth substratum through nutrient rich water and then into the atmosphere, immersing microalgae in both sunlight and water. Photosynthesis is utilized in RABR operation to enhance struvite formation by increasing the pH value within the biofilm through the uptake of carbon dioxide from solution. Measurements of pH trended higher with depth through the biofilm when exposed to light confirming the function of photosynthesis in increasing pH and, as a consequence, struvite formation. In addition, reducing RPM allows more time for water to evaporate through exposure of the biofilm to the atmosphere and provides a management option to exceed struvite solubility product. Struvite precipitation was predicted based on chemical analysis and MINTEQ modeling of ADE, was confirmed using Scanning Electron Microscopy and Energy Dispersive X-ray Spectroscopy, and quantified by determining ash content. Increase in pH within the biofilm was confirmed as photosynthetic photon flux density increased. While struvite precipitation and removal from wastewater is conventionally accomplished through physicochemical methods, this research is the first report of struvite enhanced formation through algae biofilm-based photosynthesis processes.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Mobile data buoy system

The Mobile Data Buoy System was conceived to serve the users requirement for obtaining water quality parameters from two separate watershed systems. In view of the cost constraints of the ERTS program it was obvious that the network of 10 sampling stations required could not be of the fixed installation type; therefore, it was decided to go to a system of battery powered buoys of a size that could be used in one watershed system for a period of time and then moved to another by use of a relatively small 6.7 m (22 foot) boat. The basic idea of the water quality measurement program was to establish the water quality pattern of change from the headwaters of the watersheds to and through the Mobile Bay. This would allow the investigator to develop a good picture of the state's major water resources and the pressures from pollution that are being imposed. At this point in deployment of this mobile system of buoys, it is too early to put a quantitative value on the system, however it appears less expensive than known fixed installations as to first cost. It has a basic advantage in that it can be moved, at very little expense, to alternate sites where it is desired to obtain water quality data. It is to be noted this buoy system which covers a 80 Km (50 mile) stretch of the Black Warrior River and then skips down 483 Km (300 miles) to Mobile Bay for the next measurements would not be feasible unless there is a satellite to collect and relay the data.

Morton, R. A.↗

Collection of relevant results obtained with the ERTS-1 satellite images by the Institute for Space Research (INPE), volume 2

The author has identified the following significant results. Soil resource studies in Brazil have concluded that: areas with agricultural activities appear surrounding urban centers; some areas are suffering a strong erosion action; there exist two drainage systems near Paraguai River and Parana River; and this region possesses great variety of soil types. It is possible to count the number of lakes and sluices as well as their superficial area using a channel 7 photographic enlargement. The great concentration of water bodies along the Jacui River determines the large rice crops. Data concerning regions around Teresina City, Presidente Prudente, Piracicaba City, Dourados, and Tres Marias Dam revealed several characteristics concerning the soil and water resources. Two basic maps were made of the natural vegetation distribution over central eastern Brazil from data ERTS-1 data. One map shows the drainage system, the road system, and cities; while the second shows the natural vegetation. It was possible to identify old reforestation, new reforestation, natural forest in flat lands, and natural forest in rolling lands from the ERTS images. Different pasture plant species could be identified by multispectral remote sensing. Data obtained along different wavelength bands provide essential data for the range manager to evaluate his range and to establish a suitable policy. Hydrographic mapping was done using the ERTS images.

Demendonca, F.↗

An operational earth resources satellite system - The Landsat follow-on program

The Landsats 1 and 2 have demonstrated the role of remote sensing from satellite in research, development, and operational activities essential to the better management of our resources. Hundreds of agricultural, geological, hydrological, urban land use, and other investigations have raised the question of the development of an operational system providing continuous, timely data. The Landsat follow-on study addressed the economics, technological performance, and design of a system in transition from R&D to operations. Economic benefits were identified; and a complete system from sensors to the utilization in forecasting crop production, oil and mineral exploration, water resources management was designed. Benefits-to-costs ratio in present-worth dollars is at least 4:1.

Stroud, W. G.↗

Improved LANDSAT to give better view of earth resources

The launch data of LANDSAT 3 is announced. The improved capability of the spacecrafts' remote sensors (the return beam vidicon and the multispectral scanner) and application of LANDSAT data to the study of energy supplies, food production, and global large-scale environmental monitoring are discussed along with the piggyback amateur radio communication satellite-OSCAR-D, the plasma Interaction Experiment, and the data collection system onboard LANDSAT 3. An assessment of the utility of LANDSAT multispectral data is given based on the research results to data from studies of LANDSAT 1 and 2 data. Areas studied include agriculture, rangelands, forestry, water resources, environmental and marine resources, environmental and marine resources, cartography, land use, demography, and geological surveys and mineral/petroleum exploration.

Source record↗

An operational earth resources satellite system: The LANDSAT follow-on program

The LANDSATS 1 and 2 have demonstrated the role of remote sensing from satellite in research, development, and operational activities essential to the better management of our resources. Hundreds of agricultural, geological, hydrological, urban land use, and other investigations have raised the question of the development of an operational system providing continuous, timely data. The LANDSAT Follow-on Study addressed the economics, technological performance, and design of a system in transition from R and D to operations. Economic benefits were identified; and a complete system from sensors to the ultilization in forecasting crop production, oil and mineral exploration, and water resources management was designed.

Stroud, W. G.↗

Denoising Autoencoder for Reconstructing Sensor Observation Data and Predicting Evapotranspiration: Noisy and Missing Values Repair and Uncertainty Quantification

Abstract Machine learning (ML) methods applied in scientific research often deal with interrelated features in high‐dimensional data. Reducing data noise and redundancy is needed to increase prediction accuracy and efficiency especially when dealing with data from field sensors. We explored an unsupervised learning method, the denoising autoencoder (DAE), to extract the underlying data structure from noisy raw data in the context of predicting hydrologic quantities from multiple field sensors. These sensors have intrinsic instrumental noise and occasional malfunctions that cause missing values. Our DAE neural network reconstructed meteorological sensor data containing noise and missing values to predict evapotranspiration in a mountainous watershed. The DAE reconstructed the sensor variables with a mean coefficient of determination value of 0.77 across 15 dimensions representing individual sensors. It reduced variance and bias uncertainties compared to a classical autoencoder model. The reconstruction quality varied across dimensions depending on their cross‐correlation and alignment with the underlying data structure. Uncertainties arising from the model structure were overall higher than those resulting from data corruption. We attached the DAE structure to a downstream ET‐prediction neural network in three formats and achieved reasonably accurate ET predictions . The use of the DAE notably reduced variance uncertainty in ET prediction. However, excessive variance reduction may be accompanied by an increase in bias due to the intrinsic bias‐variance tradeoff. Our method of evaluating and reducing uncertainties in aggregated data from different sources can be used to improve predictive models, process understanding, and uncertainty quantification for better water resource management. Plain Language Summary We present a machine learning method, namely the denoising autoencoder, which reduces the effects of data noise and missing values typically present in scientific data sets collected through sensor measurements. This method selects the most relevant information from noisy raw data collected by the instruments and fills in missing values. To demonstrate the effectiveness of our method, we applied it to predict evapotranspiration, a hydrologic variable that represents the water moved from the land surface to the atmosphere through a combination of evaporation and plant water use (transpiration). We also used a random sampling technique (the Monte Carlo method) to compare the uncertainty in the predictions when using the raw and noisy data versus the reconstructed data. The denoising process produced more accurate predictions of evapotranspiration with less uncertainty. Improved predictions of evapotranspiration can lead to a better understanding and accounting of water budgets. This ML approach is broadly suitable for a wide variety of applications that involve noisy sensor data with missing values. Key Points We used a denoising autoencoder (DAE) neural network to reduce noise in meteorological and soil sensor observations by on average We used Monte Carlo sampling to estimate the bias and variance of all model outputs, including uncertainty sources from data and the model We attached the DAE component to a downstream neural network to predict ET with the variance reduced by , compared to that without the DAE

denoising autoencoder↗

Trade and Climate Mitigation Interactions Create Agro–Economic Opportunities With Social and Environmental Trade–Offs in Latin America and the Caribbean

The Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) region plays key roles in both meeting global agricultural demands and maintaining carbon sinks due to its abundant land and water resources. In this study we use the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) to evaluate the opportunities and challenges posed by two global-scale drivers: agricultural market integration (i.e., reduction of trade barriers) and land-based climate mitigation policy. We evaluate their potential individual and combined impacts on agricultural production and trade revenues across LAC’s economies through mid-century, as well as the resulting impacts on agricultural consumers and integrated land-water-climate systems across the region’s diverse sub-regions. Increased global market integration results in increased agricultural production and trade revenues for many LAC economies driven by their evolving comparative advantages. Climate mitigation measures on CO 2 and non-CO 2 greenhouse gases increase revenues due to increased agricultural prices from land competition and emissions abatement. The combined outcomes from both drivers are complex and sometimes non-linear, highlighting the importance of understanding the interactions between multiple drivers. Our results show that increased agricultural production and trade opportunities pose significant trade-offs that require careful multi-sectoral planning, such as emissions reduction challenges, potential loss of livestock production when pursuing land-based climate mitigation strategies, increased consumer expenditures, and changes in land-use or water withdrawals, resulting in deforestation or water scarcity pressures. There is considerable heterogeneity in economic and environmental outcomes across LAC sub-regions and agricultural commodities, illustrating the value of considering outcomes at finer scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Projecting end-of-century climate extremes and their impacts on the hydrology of a representative California watershed

Abstract. In California, it is essential to understand the evolution of water resources in response to a changing climate to sustain its economy and agriculture and to build resilient communities. Although extreme conditions have characterized the historical hydroclimate of California, climate change will likely intensify hydroclimatic extremes by the end of the century (EoC). However, few studies have investigated the impacts of EoC extremes on watershed hydrology. We use cutting-edge global climate and integrated hydrologic models to simulate EoC extremes and their effects on the water-energy balance. We assess the impacts of projected driest, median, and wettest water years under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 on the hydrodynamics of the Cosumnes River basin. Substantial changes to annual average temperature (>+2.5 ∘C) and precipitation (>+38 %) will characterize the EoC extreme water years compared to their historical counterparts. A shift in the dominant form of precipitation, mostly in the form of rain, is projected to fall earlier. These changes reduce snowpack by more than 90 %, increase peak surface water and groundwater storages up to 75 % and 23 %, respectively, and drive the timing of peak storage to occur earlier in the year. Because EoC temperatures and soil moisture are high, both potential and actual evapotranspiration (ET) increase. The latter, along with the lack of snowmelt in the warm EoC, causes surface water and groundwater storages to significantly decrease in summer, with groundwater showing the highest rates of decrease. These changes result in more ephemeral EoC streams with more focused flow and increased storage in the mainstem of the river network during the summer.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluating an Earth system model from a water manager perspective

Abstract. The large spatial scale of global Earth system models (ESMs) is often cited as an obstacle to using the output by water resource managers in localized decisions. Recent advances in computing have improved the fidelity of hydrological responses in ESMs through increased connectivity between model components. However, the models are seldom evaluated for their ability to reproduce metrics that are important for and resonate with practitioners or that allow practitioners to situate higher-resolution model outputs within a cascade of uncertainty stemming from different models and scenarios. We draw on the combined experience of the author team and water manager workshop participants to identify salient water management metrics and evaluate whether they are credibly reproduced over the conterminous USA by the Community Earth System Model v2 (CESM2) Large Ensemble. We find that, while the exact values may not match the observations, aspects such as interannual variability can be reproduced by CESM2 for the mean wet day precipitation and length of dry spells. CESM2 also captures the proportion of total annual precipitation that derives from the heaviest rain days in watersheds that are not snow-dominated. Aggregating the 7 d mean daily runoff to two-digit Hydrological Unit Code (HUC2) watersheds also shows that rain-dominated regions capture the timing and interannual variability of annual maximum and minimum flows. We conclude that there is potential for far greater use of large-ensemble ESMs, such as CESM2, in long-range water management decisions to supplement high-resolution regional projections.

Tye, Mari R. (ORCID:0000000324911020)↗

Goddard DEVELOP Students: Using NASA Remote Sensing Technology to Study the Chesapeake Bay Watershed

The DEVELOP National Program is an Earth Science research internship, operating under NASA s Applied Sciences Program. Each spring, summer, and fall, DEVELOP interns form teams to investigate Earth Science related issues. Since the Fall of 2003, Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) has been home to one of 10 national DEVELOP teams. In past terms, students completed a variety of projects related to the Applied Sciences Applications of National Priority, such as Public Health, Natural Disasters, Water Resources, and Ecological Forecasting. These projects have focused on areas all over the world, including the United States, Africa, and Asia. Recently, Goddard DEVELOP students have turned their attention to a local environment, the Chesapeake Bay Watershed. The Chesapeake Bay Watershed is a complex and diverse ecosystem, spanning approximately 64,000 square miles. The watershed encompasses parts of six states: Delaware, Maryland, New York, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and West Virginia, as well as the District of Columbia. The Bay itself is the biggest estuary in the United States, with over 100,000 tributaries feeding into it. The ratio of fresh water to salt water varies throughout the Bay, allowing for a variety of habitats. The Bay s wetlands, marshes, forests, reefs, and rivers support more than 3,600 plant and animal species, including birds, mammals, reptiles, amphibians, fish, and crabs. The Bay is also commercially significant. It is ranked third in the nation in fishery catch, and supplies approximately 500 million pounds of seafood annually. In addition to its abundant flora and fauna, the Chesapeake Bay watershed is home to approximately 16.6 million people, who live and work throughout the watershed, and who use its diverse resources for recreational purposes. Over the past several decades, the population throughout the watershed has increased rapidly, resulting in land use changes, and ultimately decreasing the health of the Chesapeake Bay Watershed. Over the course of 2009-2010, student teams carried out two independent research projects focused on the Chesapeake Bay Watershed. The first investigated the threat of invasive species to forests in Maryland. The second investigated the detection of winter cover crops throughout the watershed from satellite data.

Moore, Rachel↗

Why Near Real-time/Low Latency is Important to Monitor the Changing World

An essential factor for remote sensing data products in impacting decision making is latency, or the time between earth observation and data are available to users. In many applications areas, latency plays an important or even decisive role where low latency earth observations help people to make timely, data-based decisions. Within the open and free NASA resources, NASA’s Land, Atmosphere Near real-time Capability for Earth Observing System (EOS) (LANCE) supports users interested in monitoring a wide variety of natural and man-made phenomena using near real-time (NRT) data products that are made available much quicker than routine processing allows. The combination of all available LANCE satellite products provides global coverage at multiple times per day, which makes it possible to meet user needs in various areas of applications including water resources, agriculture, air quality, wildland fire and many other disasters monitoring and management. As one of the prime users of LANCE, NASA’s Earth Science Applied Sciences Program promotes the use of LANCE data products to demonstrate applications in decision making and facilitates the end-user feedback to the science team to improve data products. One of the most critical applications that we expect data to be processed as close to the user as possible is wildland file response and management. User feedback indicates that LANCE NRT fire data products within 3 hours latency would meet the needs of the wildland fire community. Other examples of earth science application areas for which low latency is particularly important include detecting volcanic eruptions, early warning of disasters, tracking extreme weather events, and monitoring air quality.

Tian Yao↗

Tonlé Sap Food Security and Agriculture II: Evaluating Changes in Ecosystem Vitality and Freshwater Healthin the Tonlé Sap Basin using Remotely Sensed Data

The Tonlé Sap Lake and river basin in central Cambodia provide critical ecosystem services to the region, including fisheries, agricultural irrigation, hydropower, and biodiverse habitats. Deforestation, increased pumping for farming, and effects of climate change such as droughts and forest fires threaten the health of the lake and food security in the region. This project built upon the previous term through a partnership with Conservation International (CI), the Cambodian Ministry of Water Resources and Meteorology, and the Tonlé Sap Authority to assess ecosystem vitality and implement CI’s Freshwater Health Index (FHI) tool, in an effort to prioritize resource expenditure and highlight areas of concern. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic and related travel restrictions, partners had not been able to readily collect in situ data for the past year, which make up the majority of FHI inputs. To help fill this data gap, we developed a methodology for using Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite data to calculate groundwater storage depletion, and a Python Application Programming Interface for processing and formatting remotely-sensed data for the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. We then used SWAT to model nutrient flows and of phosphorous, nitrogen and suspended sediments amounts in the basin from October 2000 to December 2020. These outputs served as inputs for the FHI and provided policy makers with robust monitoring information to aid decision-making in the area and safeguard the lake’s vital fisheries and biodiversity.

Justine Spore↗

Economic Analysis in the Pacific Northwest Land Resources Project: Theoretical Considerations and Preliminary Results

The Pacific Northwest Land Resources Inventory Demonstration Project i s an a ttempt to combine a whole spectrum of heterogeneous geographic, institutional and applications elements in a synergistic approach to the evaluation of remote sensing techniques. This diversity is the prime motivating factor behind a theoretical investigation of alternative economic analysis procedures. For a multitude of reasons--simplicity, ease of understanding, financial constraints and credibility, among others--cost-effectiveness emerges as the most practical tool for conducting such evaluation determinatIons in the Pacific Northwest. Preliminary findings in two water resource application areas suggest, in conformity with most published studies, that Lands at-aided data collection methods enjoy substantial cost advantages over alternative techniques. The pntential for sensitivity analysis based on cost/accuracy tradeoffs is considered on a theoretical plane in the absence of current accuracy figures concerning the Landsat-aided approach.

Morse, D. R. A.↗

Bayesian Physics Informed Spatio-Temporal Network for Streamflow Data Imputation

Reliable reconstruction of incomplete streamflow records is critical for improving hydrological forecasting, flood preparedness, and water resource management. However, large observational gaps and uncertainties in governing physical parameters limit the accuracy of traditional statistical and machinelearning imputation frameworks. To address these challenges, we develop a Bayesian Physics-Informed Spatio-Temporal Network (BPI-STNet) that jointly captures spatial and temporal dependencies while enforcing hydrologic consistency through embedded physical constraints. The framework integrates a GraphSAGE-LSTM architecture to model spatial connectivity across gauges and temporal flow dynamics, coupled with a Bayesian update mechanism to estimate uncertain parameters in a simplified water-balance framework. Unlike conventional physics-informed networks that rely on sampling-based posterior estimation, BPI-STNet derives an analytic solution to the inverse problem, allowing closed-form Bayesian updates of uncertain parameters Λ={α,β,k} using Gaussian priors and likelihoods. Applied to daily observations from the Susquehanna River Basin (1980-2022), BPI-STNet achieves substantial improvements over a purely data-driven RGNN baseline, which reduced RMSE by 23 % and MAE by 9 %, and achieving an average NSE values up to 0.96. The results demonstrate that coupling Bayesian inference with physics-informed learning yields physically consistent, uncertainty-aware reconstructions that preserve the temporal persistence and statistical distribution of observed flows. The proposed framework establishes a generalizable paradigm for data-sparse hydrologic systems where both data fidelity and physical interpretability are essential.

Krishnan Kutty Ambika, Anukesh [ORNL] (ORCID:00000↗

Design of an Excavation Robot: Regolith Advanced Surface Systems Operations Robot (RASSOR) 2.0

To continue on a sustainable and flexible path, NASA needs to address the challenge of collecting and moving large amounts of regolith at the destination. Acquiring the water resources on Mars will require mining significant quantities of regolith and this is not possible with the state-of-the-art low mass excavation systems. Low gravity environments (Mars = 3/8 G) and launch mass restrictions limit the traction and the resulting reaction force of the vehicle, making current terrestrial techniques impractical. This project addressed this challenge by developing a completely new technology that can mine large quantities of regolith on Mars. Recent measurements by the “Curiosity” rover on Mars have found that the regolith contains ~ 2% water by weight globally, ~4% in Jezero Crater (Human Architecture Team’s reference landing site), and much more at the poles(Leshin et al, 2013). RASSOR 2.0 is a planetary excavator, which has a mass of 66 kg, with a 0.38 kg vehicle mass per kilogram, per hour of excavation rate and power usage of 4 W per kg of regolith excavation rate. A single RASSOR 2.0 can excavate a minimum of 2.7 metric tons of regolith per day.This is accomplished by using counteracting excavation forces on two opposing digging implements called bucket drums and an autonomous mining control system. This work has addressed several major research areas outlined in the NASA Technology Area (TA) 04 Robotics & Autonomous Systems and TA 07 Human Destination Systems roadmaps. This project started at Technology Readiness Level (TRL) 4 as a low fidelity “proof of concept” prototype which has successfully demonstrated basic regolith simulant excavation functionality in a lab-scale gravity off load test. The foundational technology described here was awarded US patent number: US 9027265 for a “Zero horizontal reaction force excavator” on May 12, 2015.

RASSOR↗

Critical Soil Moisture Thresholds of Plant Water Stress in Terrestrial Ecosystems

Plant water stress occurs at the point when soil moisture (SM) limits transpiration, defining a critical SM threshold (θ crit ). Knowledge of the spatial distribution of θ crit is crucial for future projections of climate and water resources. Here, we use global eddy covariance observations to quantify θcrit and evaporative fraction (EF) regimes. Three canonical variables describe how EF is controlled by SM: the maximum EF (EF max ), θ crit , and slope (S) between EF and SM. We find systematic differences of these three variables across biomes. Variation in θ crit , S, and EFmax is mostly explained by soil texture, vapor pressure deficit, and precipitation, respectively, as well as vegetation structure. Dryland ecosystems tend to operate at low θ crit and show adaptation to water deficits. The negative relationship between θ crit and S indicates that dryland ecosystems minimize θcrit through mechanisms of sustained SM extraction and transport by xylem. Our results further suggest an optimal adaptation of local EF-SM response that maximizes growing-season evapotranspiration and photosynthesis.

Zheng Fu↗