Simulation of the December 1998 Stratospheric Major Warming
An atypically early major stratospheric sudden warming in mid-Dec 1998 resulted in an abnormally warm and weak polar vortex through most of the 1998-99 winter.
stratosphere↗
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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Constraining Arctic Climate Projections of Wintertime Warming With Surface Turbulent Flux Observations and Representation of Surface-Atmosphere Coupling
The drivers of rapid Arctic climate change—record sea ice loss, warming SSTs, and a lengthening of the sea ice melt season—compel us to understand how this complex system operates and use this knowledge to enhance Arctic predictability. Changing energy flows sparked by sea ice decline, spotlight atmosphere-surface coupling processes as central to Arctic system function and its climate change response. Despite this, the representation of surface turbulent flux parameterizations in models has not kept pace with our understanding. The large uncertainty in Arctic climate change projections, the central role of atmosphere-surface coupling, and the large discrepancy in model representation of surface turbulent fluxes indicates that these processes may serve as useful observational constraints on projected Arctic climate change. This possibility requires an evaluation of surface turbulent fluxes and their sensitivity to controlling factors (surface-air temperature and moisture differences, sea ice, and winds) within contemporary climate models (here Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6). The influence of individual controlling factors and their interactions is diagnosed using a multi-linear regression approach. This evaluation is done for four sea ice loss regimes, determined from observational sea ice loss trends, to control for the confounding effects of natural variability between models and observations. The comparisons between satellite- and model-derived surface turbulent fluxes illustrate that while models capture the general sensitivity of surface turbulent fluxes to declining sea ice and to surface-air gradients of temperature and moisture, substantial mean state biases exist. Specifically, the central Arctic is too weak of a heat sink to the winter atmosphere compared to observations, with implications to the simulated atmospheric circulation variability and thermodynamic profiles. Models were found to be about 50% more efficient at turning an air-sea temperature gradient anomaly into a sensible heat flux anomaly relative to observations. Further, the influence of sea ice concentration on the sensible heat flux is underestimated in models compared to observations. The opposite is found for the latent heat flux variability in models; where the latent heat flux is too sensitive to a sea ice concentration anomaly. Lastly, the results suggest that present-day trends in sea ice retreat regions may serve as suitable observational constraints of projected Arctic warming.
turbulent fluxes↗
Monitoring Warm Wastewater and Evaporation Fans - A Brilliant Duo
The Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) generates warm wastewater which must be stored in warm wastewater ponds. The goal is to evaporate the water from the ponds and using evaporation fans may help to accomplish this. This project explores how much water has been accumulated into the ponds along with how much water has been entering and leaving the ponds over the past 5 years. Furthermore, the implementation of the evaporation fans into the ponds is evaluated to see if they are helpful for improving evaporation rates or not.
12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
Energy balance in a warm world without the ocean conveyor belt and sea ice
Under a strong global warming scenario, the global mean temperature could rise up to 10°C, causing the global ocean conveyor belt to collapse and the summer sea ice to disappear. This will lead to profound changes in our climate system and to impact drastically the living conditions of the globe. In this work, we study how the global heat redistribution and regional heat balance will respond to these changes using the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model version 4. Results show that the collapsed ocean conveyor belt reduces the oceanic northward meridional heat transport (MHT) by nearly 60% with a minor increase in the atmospheric MHT. The polar amplified warming is primarily caused by the increased absorption of longwave radiation due to the increased greenhouse gases and cloudiness and by the increased absorption of shortwave radiation due to a lower albedo associated with the disappeared summer sea ice.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Isolating the anthropogenic component of Arctic warming
Structural equation modeling is used in statistical applications as both confirmatory and exploratory modeling to test models and to suggest the most plausible explanation for a relationship between the independent and the dependent variables. Although structural analysis cannot prove causation, it can suggest the most plausible set of factors that influence the observed variable. Here, we apply structural model analysis to the annual mean Arctic surface air temperature from 1900 to 2012 to find the most effective set of predictors and to isolate the anthropogenic component of the recent Arctic warming by subtracting the effects of natural forcing and variability from the observed temperature. We also find that anthropogenic greenhouse gases and aerosols radiative forcing and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation internal mode dominate Arctic temperature variability. Finally, our structural model analysis of observational data suggests that about half of the recent Arctic warming of 0.64 K/decade may have anthropogenic causes.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
The Hydrological Sensitivity to Global Warming and Solar Geoengineering Derived from Thermodynamic Constraints
We derive analytic expressions of the transient response of the hydrological cycle to surface warming from an extremely simple energy balance model in which turbulent heat fluxes are constrained by the thermodynamic limit of maximum power. For a given magnitude of steady-state temperature change, this approach predicts the transient response as well as the steady-state change in surface energy partitioning and the hydrologic cycle. We show that the transient behavior of the simple model as well as the steady state hydrological sensitivities to greenhouse warming and solar geoengineering are comparable to results from simulations using highly complex models. Many of the global-scale hydrological cycle changes can be understood from a surface energy balance perspective, and our thermodynamically-constrained approach provides a physically robust way of estimating global hydrological changes in response to altered radiative forcing.
Kleidon, Alex↗
Why does tropical convective available potential energy (CAPE) increase with warming?
Previous work has produced a theory for tropical convective available potential energy (CAPE) that highlights the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) scaling of the atmosphere's saturation deficit as a driver of increases in CAPE with warming. Here we test this so-called "zero-buoyancy" theory for CAPE by modulating the saturation deficit of cloud-resolving simulations of radiative-convective equilibrium in two ways: changing the sea surface temperature (SST) and changing the environmental relative humidity (RH). For earthlike and warmer SSTs, undilute parcel buoyancy in the lower troposphere is insensitive to increasing SST because of a countervailing CC scaling that balances the increase in the saturation deficit; however, buoyancy increases dramatically with SST in the upper troposphere. Conversely, in the RH experiment, undilute buoyancy throughout the troposphere increases monotonically with decreasing RH. We show that the zero-buoyancy theory successfully predicts these contrasting behaviors, building confidence that it describes the fundamental physics of CAPE and its response to warming.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Amplified North Atlantic warming in the late Pliocene by changes in Arctic gateways
Under previous reconstructions of late Pliocene boundary conditions, climate models have failed to reproduce the warm sea surface temperatures reconstructed in the North Atlantic. Using a reconstruction of mid-Piacenzian paleogeography that has the Bering Strait and Canadian Arctic Archipelago Straits closed, however, improves the simulation of the proxy-indicated warm sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic in the Community Climate System Model. We find that the closure of these small Arctic gateways strengthens the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, by inhibiting freshwater transport from the Pacific to the Arctic Ocean and from the Arctic Ocean to the Labrador Sea, leading to warmer sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic. In conclusion, this indicates that the state of the Arctic gateways may influence the sensitivity of the North Atlantic climate in complex ways, and better understanding of the state of these Arctic gateways for past time periods is needed.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Storm time impulsive enhancements of energetic oxygen due to adiabatic acceleration of preexisting warm oxygen in the inner magnetosphere: Storm Time Impulsive Oxygen Enhancements
We examine enhancements of energetic (>50 keV) oxygen ions observed by the Radiation Belt Storm Probes Ion Composition Experiment (RBSPICE) instrument on board the Van Allen Probes spacecraft in the inner magnetosphere (L ~ 6) at 22–23 h magnetic local time (MLT) during an injection event of the 6 June 2013 storm. Simultaneous observations by two Van Allen Probes spacecraft located close together (~0.5 RE) indicate that particle injections occurred in the premidnight sector (< ~24 h MLT). We also examine the evolution of the proton and oxygen energy spectra at L ~ 6 during the injection event. The spectral slope did not significantly change during the storm. The oxygen phase space density (PSD) was shifted toward higher PSD in a wide range of the first adiabatic invariant. The spectral evolution manifests the characteristics of adiabatic acceleration and density increase of oxygen ions. Warm (0.1–10 keV) oxygen measured by the Helium, Oxygen, Proton, and Electron (HOPE) instrument was enhanced prior to the storm mostly in magnetic field-aligned directions. Finally, the most reasonable scenario of this event is that warm oxygen ions that preexisted in the inner magnetosphere were picked up and adiabatically transported and accelerated by spatially localized, temporarily impulsive electric fields.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
Increased Ocean Heat Convergence Into the High Latitudes With CO 2 Doubling Enhances Polar-Amplified Warming
We isolate the role of the ocean in polar climate change by directly evaluating how changes in ocean dynamics with quasi-equilibrium CO 2 -doubling impact high-latitude climate. With CO 2 -doubling, the ocean heat flux convergence (OHFC) shifts poleward in winter in both hemispheres. Imposing this pattern of perturbed OHFC in a global climate model results in a poleward shift in ocean-to-atmosphere turbulent heat fluxes (both sensible and latent) and sea ice retreat; the high-latitudes warm while the midlatitudes cool, thereby amplifying polar warming. Furthermore, midlatitude cooling is propagated to the polar mid-troposphere on isentropic surfaces, augmenting the (positive) lapse rate feedback at high latitudes. Finally, these results highlight the key role played by the partitioning of meridional energy transport changes between the atmosphere and ocean in high-latitude climate change.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Forecasting Responses of a Northern Peatland Carbon Cycle to Elevated CO 2 and a Gradient of Experimental Warming
The ability to forecast ecological carbon cycling is imperative to land management in a world where past carbon fluxes are no longer a clear guide in the Anthropocene. However, carbon–flux forecasting has not been practiced routinely like numerical weather prediction. This study explored (1) the relative contributions of model forcing data and parameters to uncertainty in forecasting flux– versus pool–based carbon cycle variables and (2) the time points when temperature and CO 2 treatments may cause statistically detectable differences in those variables. We developed an online forecasting workflow (Ecological Platform for Assimilation of Data (EcoPAD)), which facilitates iterative data–model integration. EcoPAD automates data transfer from sensor networks, data assimilation, and ecological forecasting. We used the Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Changing Experiments data collected from 2011 to 2014 to constrain the parameters in the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model, forecast carbon cycle responses to elevated CO 2 and a gradient of warming from 2015 to 2024, and specify uncertainties in the model output. Our results showed that data assimilation substantially reduces forecasting uncertainties. Interestingly, we found that the stochasticity of future external forcing contributed more to the uncertainty of forecasting future dynamics of C flux–related variables than model parameters. However, the parameter uncertainty primarily contributes to the uncertainty in forecasting C pool–related response variables. Given the uncertainties in forecasting carbon fluxes and pools, our analysis showed that statistically different responses of fast–turnover pools to various CO 2 and warming treatments were observed sooner than slow–turnover pools. In conclusion, our study has identified the sources of uncertainties in model prediction and thus leads to improve ecological carbon cycling forecasts in the future.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Could a future “Grand Solar Minimum” like the Maunder Minimum stop global warming?
A future Maunder Minimum type grand solar minimum, with total solar irradiance reduced by 0.25% over a 50 year period from 2020 to 2070, is imposed in a future climate change scenario experiment (RCP4.5) using, for the first time, a global coupled climate model that includes ozone chemistry and resolved stratospheric dynamics (Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model). This model has been shown to simulate two amplifying mechanisms that produce regional signals of decadal climate variability comparable to observations, and thus is considered a credible tool to simulate the Sun's effects on Earth's climate. After the initial decrease of solar radiation in 2020, globally averaged surface air temperature cools relative to the reference simulation by up to several tenths of a degree Centigrade. By the end of the grand solar minimum in 2070, the warming nearly catches up to the reference simulation. Thus, a future grand solar minimum could slow down but not stop global warming.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Enhanced biofilm formation aids adaptation to extreme warming and environmental instability in the diatom Thalassiosira pseudonana and its associated bacteria
Abstract Recent studies have highlighted the capacity of marine diatoms at the foundation of ocean food webs and biogeochemical cycles to respond to environmental change. These responses are a combination of physiological acclimation and evolutionary responses. The latter occur rapidly within a few hundred generations (translating to a scale of months to years), due to the large standing genetic variation and short generation times of diatom populations. Studies are usually carried out on diatom species in their planktonic state, but this may constitute a stark oversimplification: diatoms readily form biofilms in the water column of shallow coastal areas, where biofilm formation affects carbon export, and in the benthos, where biofilms contribute significantly to sediment stability. Here, I have carried out a 400‐generation selection experiment, where I evolved the diatom Thalassiosira pseudonana and its associated bacteria. Bacteria and diatom were cultured in their planktonic form, and under strong selection for rapid biofilm formation in temperature and nutrient regimes differing in their severity and stability. I find that biofilm formation is enhanced under mild warming and rapid thermal fluctuations but not under extreme warming regardless of nutrient availability. Evolutionary responses are slower in biofilms under benign conditions but speed up under extreme and fluctuating conditions. Taxonomic composition of the associated bacteria is driven by the temperature selection regime in biofilms but not in planktonic samples. I also show that T. pseudonana , when selected for biofilm formation, presents predictable and sequential morphologies that are not usually observed in planktonic T. pseudonana.
Schaum, C. ‐E.↗
Effect of Simulated Climate Warming on the Ectomycorrhizal Fungal Community of Boreal and Temperate Host Species Growing Near Their Shared Ecotonal Range Limits
Ectomycorrhizal (ECM) fungi can influence the establishment and performance of host species by increasing nutrient and water absorption. Therefore, understanding the response of ECM fungi to expected changes in the global climate is crucial for predicting potential changes in the composition and productivity of forests. While anthropogenic activity has, and will continue to, cause global temperature increases, few studies have investigated how increases in temperature will affect the community composition of ectomycorrhizal fungi. The effects of global warming are expected to be particularly strong at biome boundaries and in the northern latitudes. In the present study, we analyzed the effects of experimental manipulations of temperature and canopy structure (open vs. closed) on ectomycorrhizal fungi identified from roots of host seedlings through 454 pyrosequencing. The ecotonal boundary site selected for the study was between the southern boreal and temperate forests in northern Minnesota, USA, which is the southern limit range for Picea glauca and Betula papyrifera and the northern one for Pinus strobus and Quercus rubra . Manipulations that increased air and soil temperature by 1.7 and 3.4 °C above ambient temperatures, respectively, did not change ECM richness but did alter the composition of the ECM community in a manner dependent on host and canopy structure. The prediction that colonization of boreal tree species with ECM symbionts characteristic of temperate species would occur was not substantiated. Overall, only a small proportion of the ECM community appears to be strongly sensitive to warming.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Response of the tropical Pacific Ocean to El Niño versus global warming
Climate models project an El Niño-like SST response in the tropical Pacific Ocean to global warming (GW). By employing the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and applying an overriding technique to its ocean component, Parallel Ocean Program version 2 (POP2), this study investigates the similarity and difference of formation mechanism for the changes in the tropical Pacific Ocean under El Niño and GW. Results show that, despite sharing some similarities between the two scenarios, there are many significant distinctions between GW and El Niño: 1) the phase locking of the seasonal cycle reduction is more notable under GW compared with El Niño, implying more extreme El Niño events in the future; 2) in contrast to the penetration of the equatorial subsurface temperature anomaly that appears to propagate in the form of an oceanic equatorial upwelling Kelvin wave during El Niño, the GW-induced subsurface temperature anomaly manifest in the form of off-equatorial upwelling Rossby waves; 3) while significant across-equator northward heat transport (NHT) is induced by the wind stress anomalies associated with El Niño, little NHT is found at the equator due to a symmetric change in the shallow meridional overturning circulation that appears to be weakened in both North and South Pacific under GW; and 4) the maintaining mechanisms for the eastern equatorial Pacific warming are also substantially different.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Warming Stimulates Iron-Mediated Carbon and Nutrient Cycling in Mineral-Poor Peatlands
We know that iron (Fe) plays a key role in elemental cycling at terrestrial–aquatic interfaces by stabilizing carbon (C), phosphorus (P), and nutrient cations through physicochemical associations and by potentially releasing these elements following the reduction of Fe(III) to Fe(II). However, the ecosystem-scale importance of Fe redox cycling and its responses to climate change remain unclear in precipitation-fed peatlands (bogs), C-rich wetlands with very low mineral content. We tested impacts of Fe redox cycling on C and nutrient release in two bogs in northern Minnesota and in Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Changing Environments (SPRUCE), an ecosystem-scale warming experiment. Concentrations of Fe(III) declined from the peat surface to 50 cm depth (31 to 0.5 µmol g -1 ) and co-occurred with Fe(II) (10 to 30 µmol g -1 ). Chemical reduction of Fe(III) released C and P from variably saturated (0–30 cm) peat (106–1006 µmol C g -1 ; 0.6–5 µmol P g -1 ), and Fe-bound C was similar to previous measurements from upland mineral soils. Concentrations of Fe(II) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) were strongly (R 2 = 0.56–0.78) and positively correlated in water samples measured at SPRUCE enclosure outlets and ambient near-surface porewater. Concentrations of Fe(II) also correlated positively with P at warmer SPRUCE temperature treatments and increased with experimental warming, but stabilized at the highest temperature treatments as water depth declined. Although bogs have low total mineral content, mass balance measurements indicated that atmospheric deposition could in principle sustain significant Fe cycling and hydrologic losses in these ecosystems. Overall, Fe redox cycling significantly impacted C and nutrient dynamics in these mineral-poor bogs, contributing to strong correlations between Fe(II) and DOC in water samples. Increased Fe(III) reduction with warmer temperatures will likely promote peatland C and nutrient release, impacting ecosystem C budgets both directly and indirectly by enhancing decomposition and productivity.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Processing of Ultrafine-Grained Steels by Warm Rolling and Annealing
Low-carbon microalloyed steel was subjected to warm rolling followed by rapid transformation annealing (RTA) at 800-850 °C and subcritical annealing (SCA) at 600 °C to develop ultrafine ferrite grain structures (UFFG) with grain size less than 3 μm. The present study investigated the influence of light (40%) and heavy (80%) warm rolling deformation (LWR and HWR) applied during the finishing pass of two-pass rolling schedules on the microstructural evolution after rolling and subsequent annealing treatments. RTA treatment of HWR sample at a lower intercritical temperature for an optimum duration (800 °C, 30 s) developed UFFG-martensite dual-phase structure that offered the best combination of strength (YS ~ 900 MPa and UTS ~ 1200 MPa) and ductility (25% elongation). The SCA treatment provided sufficient time to achieve a uniform distribution of carbide particles throughout the ferrite matrix. SCA treatment of HWR at 600 °C for 4 h developed UFFG-carbide structure achieving YS of 800 MPa with 20% ductility. The SCA of LWR resulted in coarser ferrite grain structures (grain size > 5 μm) having higher ductility (more than 30%) but lower strength (UTS of 400-550 MPa) as compared to RTA.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Rapidly Changing Range Limits in a Warming World: Critical Data Limitations and Knowledge Gaps for Advancing Understanding of Mangrove Range Dynamics in the Southeastern USA
Climate change is altering species’ range limits and transforming ecosystems. For example, warming temperatures are leading to the range expansion of tropical, cold-sensitive species at the expense of their cold-tolerant counterparts. In some temperate and subtropical coastal wetlands, warming winters are enabling mangrove forest encroachment into salt marsh, which is a major regime shift that has significant ecological and societal ramifications. Here, we synthesized existing data and expert knowledge to assess the distribution of mangroves near rapidly changing range limits in the southeastern USA. We used expert elicitation to identify data limitations and highlight knowledge gaps for advancing understanding of past, current, and future range dynamics. Mangroves near poleward range limits are often shorter, wider, and more shrublike compared to their tropical counterparts that grow as tall forests in freeze-free, resource-rich environments. The northern range limits of mangroves in the southeastern USA are particularly dynamic and climate sensitive due to abundance of suitable coastal wetland habitat and the exposure of mangroves to winter temperature extremes that are much colder than comparable range limits on other continents. Thus, there is need for methodological refinements and improved spatiotemporal data regarding changes in mangrove structure and abundance near northern range limits in the southeastern USA. Advancing understanding of rapidly changing range limits is critical for foundation plant species such as mangroves, as it provides a basis for anticipating and preparing for the cascading effects of climate-induced species redistribution on ecosystems and the human communities that depend on their ecosystem services.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗