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NASA NTRS2020

Global Declines in Human-Driven Mangrove Loss

Global mangrove loss has been attributed primarily to human activity. Anthropogenic loss hotspots across Southeast Asia and around the world have characterized the ecosystem as highly threatened, though natural processes such as erosion can also play a significant role in forest vulnerability. However, the extent of human and natural threats has not been fully quantified at the global scale. Here, using a Random Forest-based analysis of over one million Landsat images, we present the first 30-meter resolution global maps of the drivers of mangrove loss from 2000-2016, capturing both human-driven and natural stressors. We estimate that 62% of global losses between 2000-2016 resulted from land-use change, primarily through conversion to aquaculture and agriculture. Up to 80% of these human-driven losses occurred within six Southeast Asian nations, reflecting the regional emphasis on enhancing aquaculture for export to support economic development. Both anthropogenic and natural losses declined between 2000-2016, though slower declines in natural loss caused an increase in their relative contribution to total global loss area. We attribute the decline in anthropogenic losses to the regionally-dependent combination of increased emphasis on conservation efforts and a lack of remaining mangroves viable for conversion. While efforts to restore and protect mangroves appear to be effective over decadal time scales, the emergence of natural drivers of loss presents an immediate challenge for coastal adaptation. We anticipate that our results will inform decision making within conservation and restoration initiatives by providing a locally-relevant understanding of the causes of mangrove loss.

Coastal wetlands↗

NASA NTRS2020

Pacific Northwest Health & Air Quality - Utilizing NASA Earth Observations to Analyze Air Quality Impacts from Wildfires in the Pacific Northwest

The Pacific Northwest region of the United States and Canada has become more vulnerable to intense wildfire regimes due to years of fire suppression and climatic changes. Smoke from fires exposes communities to hazardous aerosols and pollutants known to trigger asthma symptoms and exacerbate other respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. In partnership with The Nature Conservancy’s Washington Chapter and the Puget Sound Clean Air Agency, NASA DEVELOP investigated the impacts of wildfire smoke on air quality from 2008 to 2020 using NASA Earth observations. To explore the various dimensions of smoke and its relation to air quality, the team looked at the vertical extent of smoke plumes and the resulting changes in air quality. The team evaluated the potential relationship between plume height of wildfire smoke and fire radiative power using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aboard the Aqua and Terra satellites and Terra’s Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) using the MISR INteractive eXplorer (MINX). The team determined that there was no regional relationship between fire radiative power and smoke plume height. To investigate changes in air quality resulting from wildfire smoke, the team utilized data from NASA’s Fire Information for Resource Management System, from the European Space Agency’s Sentinel-5P Tropospheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI), and true color imagery from Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI). The team created a Google Earth Engine-based (GEE) web tool to visualize changes in atmospheric pollutants and aerosol optical depth. Results of case study fires showed varying increases in pollutant concentrations when compared to a baseline map. The end products provided the partners with tools to quantify plume height using MINX and to visualize recent air quality patterns relating to variations in wildfire extent and severity in the Pacific Northwest

Ani Matevosian↗

NASA NTRS2020

Bhutan Water Resources Tech Paper: Comparing Precipitation, Temperature, and Phenology Data Trends in Bhutan to Assist the Himalayan Environmental Rhythm Observation and Evaluation System (HEROES) Project

Himalayan countries, including Bhutan, have become vulnerable to warming trends which result in increasing temperature and variable rainfall and snowfall. By combining phenological and meteorological data, Earth observation platforms and sensors were used to assess trends in precipitation, temperature, and vegetation phenology in Bhutan from 1996 through 2017. This project studied precipitation using Climate Hazards Center Infrared Precipitation with Station data, analyzed temperature using the Famine Early Warning System Network Land Data Assimilation System, incorporated elevation data from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission, and assessed vegetation phenology using Aqua and Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to evaluate climate variability and its effects on Bhutan. In situ temperature and precipitation data were also collected from the Himalayan Environmental Rhythm Observation and Evaluation System (HEROES) project and Bhutan’s National Center for Hydrology and Meterology. Modeled and in situ data showed similar trends in precipitation and temperature for the Thimpu, Chhukha, and Gasa regions. Aqua and Terra MODIS phenology data were variable from year to year. However, the data suggested a late onset of spring green up. Partners at the Bhutan Foundation and locally in Bhutan can use this information to better understand and monitor climate variability and replicate these methods for future analysis.

Kinley Dorji↗

NASA NTRS2020

Bhutan Water Resources Project Summary - Comparing Precipitation, Temperature, and Phenology Data Trends in Bhutan to Assist the Himalayan Environmental Rhythm Observation and Evaluation System (HEROES) Project

DEVELOP Project Summary↗

NASA NTRS2020

Burning Embers: Towards More Transparent and Robust Climate-change Risk Assessments

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports provide policy-relevant insights about climate impacts, vulnerabilities and adaptation through a process of peer-reviewed literature assessments underpinned by expert judgement. An iconic output from these assessments is the burning embers diagram, first used in the Third Assessment Report to visualize reasons for concern, which aggregate climate-change-related impacts and risks to various systems and sectors. These burning embers use colour transitions to show changes in the assessed level of risk to humans and ecosystems as a function of global mean temperature. In this Review, we outline the history and evolution of the burning embers and associated reasons for concern framework, focusing on the methodological approaches and advances. While the assessment framework and figure design have been broadly retained over time, refinements in methodology have occurred, including the consideration of different risks, use of confidence statements, more formalized protocols and standardized metrics. Comparison across reports reveals that the risk level at a given temperature has generally increased with each assessment cycle, reflecting accumulating scientific evidence. For future assessments, an explicit, transparent and systematic process of expert elicitation is needed to enhance comparability, quality and credibility of burning embers.

burning embers diagram↗

NASA NTRS2020

Atmospheric Carbon Cycle Dynamics Over the Above Domain: an Integrated Analysis Using Aircraft Observations (Arctic-CA) and Model Simulations (GEOS)

The Arctic Carbon Atmospheric Profiles (Arctic-CAP) project conducted six airborne surveys of Alaska and northwestern Canada between April and November 2017 to capture the spatial and temporal gradients of northern high-latitude carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and carbon monoxide (CO) as part of NASA's Arctic-Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE). The Arctic-CAP sampling strategy involved acquiring vertical profiles of CO2, CH4 and CO from the surface to 5 km altitude at 25 sites around the ABoVE domain on a 4- to 6-week time interval. We observed vertical gradients of CO2, CH4 and CO that vary by eco-region and duration of the sampling period, which spanned the majority of the seasonal cycle. All Arctic-CAP measurements were compared to a global simulation using the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) modeling system. Comparisons with GEOS simulations of atmospheric CO2, CH4 and CO highlight the potential of these multi-species observations to inform improvements in surface flux estimates and the representation of atmospheric transport. GEOS simulations provide estimates of the near surface average CO2 and CH4 enhancements that are well correlated with aircraft observations (R=0.74 and R=0.60 respectively), suggesting that GEOS has reasonable fidelity over this complex and heterogeneous region. This model-data comparison over the ABoVE domain reveals that while current state-of-the-art models and flux estimates are able to capture broadscale spatial and temporal patterns in near-surface CO2 and CH4 concentrations, more work is needed to resolve fine-scale flux features that are observed. The study also provides a framework for benchmarking a global model at regional scales, which is needed to use climate models as tools to investigate high-latitude carbon-climate feedbacks.

C Sweeney↗

NASA NTRS2020

Convection Parametrization and Multi-Nesting Dependence of a Heavy Rainfall Event over Namibia with Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model

Namibia is considered as one of the countries that are most vulnerable to climate change due to its generally dry climate and the percentage of its population that rely on subsistence agriculture for their livelihoods. Early warning systems are an important aspect of adapting to climate change. Weather forecasting relies on the use of numerical weather prediction models and these need to be configured properly. In this study we investigate the effects of using multi-nests and a convection scheme on the simulation of a heavy rainfall event over the Northwestern region of Kunene, Namibia. The event which was associated with a cut-off low system, was short-lived and resulted in over 45 mm of rainfall in one hour. For the multi-nest, a 9 km grid length parent domain is nested within the Global Forecast System (GFS) simulations, which in turn forces a 3 km grid spacing child domain. A different set of simulations are produced using a single nest of 3 km grid spacing, nested directly inside the GFS data. The simulations are produced with the convection scheme switched on and off. The impact of a single versus multi nest is found to be small in general, with slight differences in the location of high rainfall intensity. Switching off the convection schemes results in high rainfall intensity and increased detail in the simulations, including when a grid spacing of 9 km mis used. Using a grid spacing of 3 km with the convection scheme on, results in a loss of detail in the simulations as well as lower rainfall amounts. The study shows a need for different configurations to be tested before an optimum configuration can be selected for operational forecasting. We recommend further tests with different synoptic forcing to be conducted to identify a suitable configuration for Namibia.

flooding↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Multi-Class Anomaly Detection in Flight Data using Semi-Supervised Explainable Deep Learning Model

Identifying precursor for safety incidents in aviation data is a crucial task, yet extremely challenging. The main approach, in practice, leverages domain expertise to define expected tolerances in system’s behavior and alarm exceedance from such safety margins. However, this approach is incapable of identifying unknown risk and vulnerabilities. Machine learning has been long studied and deployed to identify precursors for such anomalies, with the great challenge of the need for sufficient labelled set of data to achieve a reliable and accurate performance. In this article, we develop an explainable deep semi-supervised model for anomaly detection in aviation, building upon recent advancements in the machine learning literature. The proposed model combines feature engineering and classification in the feature space, while leveraging all available data (labelled and unlabeled). Validating on two case studies of anomaly detection in take-off and landing phases of commercial aircraft, we show that our model is able to outperform state-of-the-art supervised anomaly detection model and reach significantly high accuracy and low false alarm with minimum amount of available labelled data.

Anomaly Detection↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Implementing the Infosec Color Wheel into an UAM Software and System Development Lifecycle

This research will provide information on the importance of collaboration between software development teams and cyber security teams. As Urban Air Mobility software services are developed, a collaborative approach between software development and software assurance teams will limit the exposed vulnerabilities and weaknesses.

Urban Air Mobility↗

NASA NTRS2021

Sacramento Urban Development: Quantifying and Mapping Urban Heat to Inform Urban Planning Initiatives in Sacramento, California

The combined effects of increasing urbanization and changing climatic conditions have exacerbated the urban heat island (UHI) effect and heat-related risks for city dwellers. Vulnerability to heat-related illnesses is further compounded by risk factors such as demographics, socioeconomic status, and pre-existing health conditions. The City of Sacramento, as California’s fastest-growing city by population, is particularly invested in combatting the UHI effect. The team collaborated with the City of Sacramento and urban planning firm, Dyett and Bhatia, on three main goals: assessing urban heat at the neighborhood scale, identifying priority areas for cooling interventions, and assessing heat risk to the population. This project utilized NASA Earth observation products to identify hotspots within the communities of Sacramento and create maps of urban heat, the heat-mitigation index, and heat risk from 2016-2020. The team used the Surface Reflectance product from Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) and Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS) and the ECOsystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on Space Station (ECOSTRESS) thermal infrared sensor. Additionally, the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) urban cooling model was used to assess the impact of increased tree canopy scenarios. Urban hotspots were identified in central Sacramento and along major transportation corridors such as Stockton Boulevard, while the highest risk areas were identified in the communities of Fruitridge/Broadway and North Sacramento. This project identified these high-opportunity areas for heat mitigation to inform the City of Sacramento's General Plan and reduce citizen risk by addressing urban heat islands.

DEVELOP Project Summary↗

NASA NTRS2021

Vegetation Monitoring Optimization with Normalized Difference Vegetation Index and Evapotranspiration Using Remote Sensing Measurements and Land Surface Models Over East Africa

The majority of people in East Africa rely on the agro-pastoral system for their livelihood, which is highly vulnerable to droughts and flooding. Agro-pastoral droughts are endemic to the region and are considered the main natural hazard that contributes to food insecurity. Drought begins with rainfall deficit, gradually leading to soil moisture deficit, higher land surface temperature, and finally impacts to vegetation growth. Therefore, monitoring vegetation conditions is essential in understanding the progression of drought, potential effects on food security, and providing early warning information needed for drought mitigation decisions. Because vegetation processes couple the land and atmosphere, monitoring of vegetation conditions requires consideration of both water provision and demand. While there is consensus in using either the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) or evapotranspiration(ET) for vegetation monitoring, a comprehensive assessment optimizing the use of both has not yet been done. Moreover, the evaluation methods for understanding the relationships between NDVI and ET for vegetation monitoring are also limited. Taking these gaps into account we have developed a framework to optimize vegetation monitoring using both NDVI and ET by identifying where they perform the best by using triple collocation and cross-correlation methods. We estimated the random error structure in Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) NDVI; ET from the Operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEBop) model; and ET from land surface models (LSMs). LSM ET and SSEBop ET have been found to be better indicators for vegetation monitoring during extreme drought events, while NDVI could provide better information on vegetation condition during wetter than normal conditions. The random error structures of these variables suggest that LSM ET is most likely to provide important information for vegetation monitoring over low and high ends of the vegetation fraction areas. Over moderate vegetative areas, any of these variables could provide important vegetation information for drought characterization and food security assessments. While this study provides a framework for optimizing vegetation monitoring for drought and food security assessments over East Africa, the framework can be adopted to optimize vegetation monitoring over any other drought and food insecure region of the world.

triple collocation↗

NASA NTRS2000

Cosmic GPS ionospheric sensing and space weather

As our civilization becomes more dependent on space based technologies, we become more vulnerable to conditions in space weather. Accurate space weather specification and forecasting require proper modeling which account for the coupling between the sun, the magnetosphere, the thermosphere, the ionosphere and the mesosphere.

GPS↗

NASA NTRS2018

Application Software Cybersecurity Scanning

Scanning software applications for cybersecurity vulnerabilities is a crucial step is assessing the overall health of the application, but how can this kind of scan be performed to give development teams the information they need to make informed design decisions? Two pilot cybersecurity scans were conducted in an attempt to answer this question. A scanning team composed of various subject matter experts was established and worked closely with the development team to perform these scans and capture metrics throughout the process. These interactions and metrics indicate that these scans can be performed in an unobtrusive way and still provide valuable information to development teams regarding the health of their application. This work is not definitive in nature but serves as a foundation for future work.

Barner, Lyle↗

NASA NTRS2017

Precision Projector Laboratory: Detector Characterization with an Astronomical Emulation Testbed

As astronomical observations benefit from improved sensitivity, the effectiveness of scientific programs is becoming limited by systematics that often originate in poorly understood image sensor behavior. Traditional, bottom-up detector characterization methods provide one way to model underlying detector physics, and generate ever more faithful numerical simulations, but this approach is vulnerable to preconceptions and over-simplification. The alternative top-down approach is laboratory emulation, which enables observation, calibration, and analysis scenarios to be tested without relying on a complete understanding of the underlying physics. This complements detector characterization and simulation efforts by testing their validity. We describe a laboratory facility and experimental testbed that supports the emulation of a wide range of mission concepts such as gravitational weak lensing measurements by WFIRST and high precision spectrophotometry of transiting exoplanets by JWST. An Offner relay projects readily customizable "scenes" (e.g. stars, galaxies, spectra) with very low optical aberration over the full area of a typical optical or near infrared image sensor. f/8 and slower focal ratios may be selected, spanning those of most proposed space missions and approximating the point spread function (PSF) size of seeing limited ground based surveys. Diffraction limited PSFs are projected over a wide field of view and wavelength range to deliver highly predictable image patterns down to sub-pixel scales with stable intensity and fine motion control. The testbed enables realistic validation of detector performance on science-like images, which aids mission design and survey strategy, as well as targeted investigations of various detector effects.

Seshadri, Suresh↗

NASA NTRS2017

An Automaton Rover Enabling Long Duration In-Situ Science in Extreme Environments

The Automaton Rover for Extreme Environments (AREE) is a NASA Innovative Advanced Concept (NIAC) funded study focused on enabling long duration science on Venus by replacing vulnerable electronics with an entirely mechanical design. By utilizing high temperature alloys, the rover would survive on the surface of Venus for weeks if not months. The rover concept harvests wind energy using a turbine and stores it in a constant force spring. The mobility system would be guided by a mechanical computer and logic system, programed to carry out the mission. It would collect basic science data such as wind speed, temperature, and seismic events. Communicating the data back to Earth is the most challenging aspect of the system design with multiple options being explored in a trade: a simple electronic high temperature transponder, a retroreflector target or inscribing phonograph style records to be launched via a balloon to a high altitude drone capable of transmitting the data back to Earth. AREE is not only a new exciting in-situ rover concept, but also a paradigm shift to conducting in-situ science in extreme environments. Traditional extreme environment vehicles collect as many diverse data points as possible in the short period of time before system failure. AREE breaks that trend by exploring what can be done with only a few basic scientific measurements, but recorded over long periods of time. In addition to Venus, the concept can be useful in other extreme environments in the solar system including Mercury, Jupiter's radiation belts, the interiors of gas giants, the mantle of the Earth and volcanoes throughout the solar system.

Parness, Aaron↗

NASA NTRS2019

Developing a soil inversion model framework for regional permafrost monitoring

Currently, the community lacks capabilities to assess and monitor landscape scale permafrost active layer dynamics over large extents. To address this need, we developed a concept of a remote sensing based Soil Inversion Model for regional Permafrost (SIM-P) monitoring. The current SIM-P framework includes a satellite-based soil process model and a soil dielectric model. We are also working on incorporating a radar scattering model for Arctic tundra into the SIM-P framework. A unified soil parameterization scheme was developed to harmonize key soil thermal, hydraulic and dielectric parameters in the soil process and radar models that can be used in the joint soil-radar inversion framework. The soil parameter retrievals of the SIM-P framework include soil organic content (SOC) and active layer thickness (ALT). Initial tests of SIM-P using in-situ soil permittivity observations showed reasonable accuracy in predicting site-level SOC and soil temperature profiles at an Alaska tundra site and ALT in Arctic Alaska. SIM-P will be further tested using airborne P- and L-band radar data collected during NASA’s Arctic Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE) to evaluate the sensitivity of longwave radar to active layer properties.

Miller, Charles E.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Multitasking

Multitasking is endemic in modern life and work: drivers talk on cell phones, office workers type while answering phone calls, students do homework while text messaging, nurses prepare injections while responding to doctor’s calls, and air traffic controllers direct aircraft in one sector while handling additional traffic in another. Whether in daily life or at work, we are constantly bombarded with multiple concurrent demands, and we have all somehow come to believe in the myth that we can, and in fact are expected to, easily address them all - without any repercussions. However, accumulating scientific evidence is now suggesting that multitasking increases the probability of human error. This talk presents a set of NASA studies that characterize concurrent demands in routine airline flight operations, in order to illustrate the ways operational task demands together with the proclivity to manage them all concurrently make human performance in this and in any domain vulnerable to potentially serious errors and to accidents.

multitasking↗

NASA NTRS2021

Systems Engineering and Assurance Modeling (SEAM): A Web-Based Solution for Integrated Mission Assurance

We present an overview of the Systems Engineering and Assurance Modeling (SEAM) platform, a web-browser-based tool which is designed to help engineers evaluate the radiation vulnerabilities and develop an assurance approach for electronic parts in space systems. The SEAM framework consists of three interconnected modeling tools, a SysML compatible system description tool, a Goal Structuring Notation (GSN) visual argument tool, and Bayesian Net and Fault Tree extraction and export tools. The SysML and GSN sections also have a coverage check application that ensures that every radiation fault identified on the SysML side is also addressed in the assurance case in GSN. The SEAM platform works on space systems of any degree of radiation hardness but is especially helpful for assessing radiation performance in systems with commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) electronic components.

SEAM↗