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At least 829 records · Page 46

Surface Chemistry and Particle Morphology Changes in Pine Biomass under Indirect Thermal Gradients: Implications for Feed Screw Design

The conversion of biomass feedstocks into fuels and chemicals using fast pyrolysis is a promising approach to renewable energy. Feed screws that convey biomass to pyrolysis reactors, however, often encounter plugging. Indirect heating of the feed screw occurs due to contact with the pyrolysis chamber, resulting in a heating gradient ranging from ambient temperature (22 °C) to reactor temperature (500 °C). Given that major cell wall macromolecules, such as lignin, cellulose, and hemicellulose, begin to produce bio-oils and volatile resin acid compounds within this temperature gradient, we hypothesized that indirect heating during feed screw conveyance is sufficient to cause premature degradation of biomass. We characterized this degradation by observing increases in surface roughness, changes in overall particle morphology, and the production and deposition of bio-oils on biomass particle surfaces. Correlative analysis between optical in situ hot-stage microscopy, confocal Raman spectroscopy, and SEM analysis revealed that heating at temperatures as low as 375 °C caused significant increases in surface roughness, with large fissures forming between and within cell walls. Additionally, droplets of bio-oil were observed on particles, especially in the bark and cambium samples. This work suggests that these phenomena contribute to particle agglomeration, leading to feed screw plugging, and that engineering a solution to cool the feed screw could prevent particle agglomeration and reduce plugging incidents, thereby increasing biomass processing efficiency.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Techno-Economic Analysis of Recycled Ionic Liquid Solvent Used in a Model Colloidal Platinum Nanoparticle Synthesis

Ionic liquids have garnered significant attention over the past 20 years as alternatives to conventional volatile organic solvents because they are non-flammable, have negligible vapor pressures, possess high thermal and chemical stabilities, and can potentially be recycled. A more recent use of ionic liquids is their application as a solvent in the synthesis of colloidal inorganic nanoparticles; however, a major challenge in the adoption of ionic liquids is that they are generally more expensive than their traditional organic solvent counterparts. Herein, we provide insight into how recycling an ionic liquid solvent affects the product characteristics in a model colloidal platinum nanoparticle synthesis, the structure of the ionic liquid through each recycle, and the overall cost of nanoparticle fabrication using a techno-economic analysis. Using a standard ionic liquid, 1-butyl-3-methylimidazolium bis(trifluoromethylsulfonyl)imide (BMIM-NTf2), as the solvent for a Pt nanoparticle synthesis, we demonstrate that the ionic liquid can be recovered and reused through multiple successive reactions following the initial reaction with virgin, or as-purchased, ionic liquid. The use of recycled ionic liquid does not cause any degradation in the product quality or change in nanoparticle morphology. Techno-economic analysis of this synthesis method revealed that, through ionic liquid recycling, nanoparticle preparation using BMIM-NTf2 can achieve a cost that is not only competitive but also potentially lower than that of the conventional organic solvent, 1-octadecene.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Sustainable Recycling of Rare-Earth Elements from NdFeB Magnet Swarf: Techno-Economic and Environmental Perspectives

Rare-earth elements (REEs) are increasingly susceptible to supply risks due to their limited geographical availability and growing demand in clean energy applications such as neodymium-iron-boron (NdFeB) magnets used in electric vehicles and wind turbines. When NdFeB magnets are produced, 6–73% of swarf is generated during the manufacturing steps. This paper presents an innovative technology that utilizes copper nitrate to dissolve REEs in NdFeB magnet swarf and subsequently recovers ~97% of them as mixed rare-earth oxides (REOs) of purity higher than 99.5%. Techno-economic analysis (TEA) and life cycle assessment (LCA) quantified the economic and environmental impacts of adopting the proposed acid-free dissolution technology, projecting a net profit margin of 12–43% and a global warming impact reduction by up to 73% compared to the prevailing REO production routes in China. As copper nitrate is the single largest contributor to the cost and environmental footprint, recycling of copper nitrate was investigated as well as using alternative copper salts (e.g., copper acetate), revealing significant improvements in TEA and LCA results. Dysprosium was a major revenue source, highlighting the importance of targeting electric vehicle magnets that are rich in dysprosium. As the REO market is volatile, sensitivity analysis was employed to evaluate the profitability of the proposed technology under different REO prices over the last 11 years. Overall, our results confirmed the economic and environmental viability of the proposed technology for sustainable recycling of REEs from the NdFeB magnet swarf.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Green Needle Coke Production from Pyrolysis Biocrude toward Bio-based Anode Material Manufacture: Biochar Fines Addition Effect as “Physical Template” on the Crystalline Order

Here, a new method for producing green needle coke (GNC) is developed by replacing the “heavy fraction” of petroleum pitch delayed coking with fast pyrolysis biocrude. A series of alternative biocrude distillation, carbonization, and calcination conditions were investigated to determine the influence of these processing parameters onto the crystalline structure of the resulting graphitized material. For the first time, the addition of biochar fines was found to serve as a “physical template” to increase the graphitic nature of the final product. During the initial biocrude carbonization (350–450 °C), volatile compounds are released, and aromatics in pyrolysis biocrude experience condensation, resulting in GNC solids with carbon contents above 95 wt % and some early lamellar structure. In the second stage of the thermal process (25–1500 °C), there are additional thermal decomposition reactions with an increase in the aromatic nature of the graphitized solid. It was found that systematic addition of biochar fines induces a nucleating effect during the GNC development. Thermogravimetric analysis suggests that biochar fines promote polycondensation reactions by modifying the biopitch structure and molecular weight, while elemental analysis (CHN) shows a reduction in both H/C and O/C ratios which are consistent with the increase in aromaticity and removal of oxygenated compounds as thermal treatment evolves. The effects of different bio-based pitch materials (after distillation) and GNC intermediates were evaluated by pyrolysis-gas chromatography mass spectrometry and Fourier transform infrared, displaying slight changes on product yields and quality. X-ray diffraction patterns taken after graphitization evidence an increase in the graphitic order with the addition of biochar fines. Transmittance electron microscopy depicts an improvement on graphitic morphology as biochar fine content increases. The use of biochar fines showed a significant increase in graphitic ordering at addition levels above 0.01 wt %. These results show that thermally treated biocrude/biochar fine systems can produce graphitic structures (hard carbon-like) that might be suitable for the manufacture of sodium-ion batteries.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

An Explainable Classification Framework for Determining and Understanding the Suitability of Solvent Extraction for Bioproduct Recovery

Lignocellulosic biomass is an abundant feedstock for producing sustainable fuels and chemicals. However, a key challenge in most biomass utilization strategies is the recovery of products from a dilute, typically aqueous, phase. In this respect, liquid–liquid extraction, which relies on a solvent to transfer a product of interest from one liquid phase to another (solvent-rich) phase, is a technology that can reduce the energy requirements for product recovery. To reduce solvent consumption, liquid–liquid extraction needs to be combined with another separation method (e.g., distillation) to recycle the solvent. Despite the research on solvent extraction, there are limited system-wide methods that allow us to determine when extraction is well suited to carry out a specific separation. Accordingly, we present a classification framework to predict whether extraction, coupled with distillation, is feasible and more economical than distillation. Our framework is based on features such as feed composition, liquid–liquid equilibrium constants, relative volatilities, and solvent price, and leads to trained classifiers that show good prediction accuracy. We further study how specific features influence the suitability of extraction. Furthermore, to showcase the applicability of the framework, we use it to analyze the separation of acetic acid from water.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Lignin-Derived Methoxyterephthalates for Performance-Advantaged Polymers and Plasticizers

Lignin-derived aromatic carboxylic acids can be produced from oxidative catalytic processes and are promising building blocks for performance-advantaged bioproducts that leverage their inherent heteroatom functionalities. Here, we synthesize 2-methoxyterephthalate and 2,6-dimethoxyterephthalate derivatives by electrochemical carboxylation of guaiacyl- and syringyl-derived lignin monomers obtained from the oxidative deconstruction of lignin. These methoxylated terephthalates are evaluated as comonomers in poly(ethylene terephthalate) (PET) and as plasticizers that could replace petrochemically-derived isophthalate and phthalate, respectively. Specifically, we copolymerize 2-methoxy- and 2,6-dimethoxyterephthalate with dimethyl terephthalate to form several PET copolymers, both of which enable the properties of PET to be tuned, with an incorporation beyond 25% producing amorphous polyesters. At 10 mol % loading in the copolymers, we demonstrate that the bioderived comonomers exhibit comparable behavior to isophthalic acid, a commonly used comonomer in PET, by lowering the crystallinity and melting temperature. Moreover, methoxyterephthalate esters (2-ethylhexyl and butyl) are compared to phthalate and terephthalate ester counterparts used as poly(vinyl chloride) (PVC) plasticizers. The bioderived plasticizers are comparable to the petroleum-derived incumbents in reducing the glass transition temperature and increasing the thermal stability of PVC. Furthermore, the dimethoxyterephthalic esters are expected to have an extended lifetime in the polymer matrix due to their lower volatility and lower diffusion coefficients calculated by molecular dynamic simulations. These results demonstrate that the isophthalate and phthalate components in polyesters and plasticizers, respectively, could be substituted with biobased methoxyterephthalate derivatives.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Towards Understanding of Cracking during Drying of Thick Aqueous-Processed LiNi 0.8 Mn 0.1 Co 0.1 O 2 Cathodes

Replacing N-methyl-2-pyrrolidone (NMP) with water for processing of lithium-ion battery (LIB) electrodes has both cost and environmental benefits, which include reduced drying time, lower dryer capital cost, elimination of NMP recovery capital equipment, and no release of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) into the environment. However, aqueous-processed thick cathodes (≳4 mAh/cm 2 ) typically exhibit detrimental cracking during drying that is not observed for the NMP-based counterpart. The reasons for cracking of these water-based thick electrodes are still not well understood due to the complex nature of the colloidal dispersions used in the LIB electrode processing steps. In this work, the contributions of various factors responsible for cracking are discussed. We show that eliminating hydrogen evolution due to corrosion of the aluminum current collector eliminated the majority of the cracks regardless of the coating thickness, identifying the gas evolution as the primary reason for electrode cracking. Some secondary cracks and pinhole-type defects remained after addressing the aluminum current collector corrosion, which are thought to be caused by an inferior binding network formed by carbon black and binder in aqueous-processed cathodes compared to those processed with NMP. The thick aqueous processed cathodes are not able to sufficiently withstand the drying stresses without crack formation. We demonstrate reduction of these secondary defects by either improving the binding network or by reducing the drying stress. The former was achieved by replacing carbon black with vapor grown graphite tubes (VGGTs) that caused a more efficient utilization of the emulsion binder. Here, the latter was achieved by adding a small amount of IPA as a co-solvent that has been shown to reduce capillary stresses.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Encapsulation in a Bacterial Microcompartment Shell Improves Thermal Stability of a Glycolytic Enzyme

Selective encapsulation of target enzymes is an increasingly well-studied field, with a host of potential applications for biotechnology. Natively, many bacteria utilize bacterial microcompartments (BMCs) for enzyme encapsulation to enhance catalysis. BMCs are protein shells that enable selective localization of targeted metabolic enzymes and may improve catalytic rates by colocalizing pathway enzymes and/or serve to sequester toxic or volatile intermediates. The microcompartment shell of Haliangium ochraceum (HO) is a notable BMC chassis because of its modularity and versatility; it is easily expressed and assembled outside its native host and can accept a wide array of cargo. Recently, it was demonstrated that assembly of HO BMC shells can be easily achieved in vitro. Following up on our previous work on in vivo assembly of HO-BMCs with triose phosphate isomerase (TPI) as a model enzyme cargo, here we have demonstrated the advantages of in vitro assembly (IVA) for targeted enzyme encapsulation. We achieved variable loading of BMC shells with targeted amounts of TPI and demonstrated enhanced thermal stability of encapsulated TPI versus free TPI up to 62 °C.

assays↗

Selective Chloride-Mediated Neat Ethanol Oxidation to 1,1-Diethoxyethane via an Electrochemically Generated Ethyl Hypochlorite Intermediate

Selective primary alcohol oxidation to form aldehydes products without overoxidation to carboxylic acids remains a key chemistry challenge. Using simple alkylammonium chloride as the electrolyte with a glassy carbon working electrode in neat ethanol solvent, 1,1-diethoxyethane (DEE) was prepared with >95% faradaic efficiency (FE). DEE serves as a storage platform protecting acetaldehyde from overoxidation and volatilization. UV–vis spectroscopy shows that the reaction proceeds through an ethyl hypochlorite intermediate as the sole chloride oxidation product, and that this intermediate decomposes unimolecularly (rate constant k = (6.896 ± 0.516) × 10 –4 s –1 ) to form HCl catalyst and acetaldehyde, which undergoes rapid nucleophilic attack by ethanol solvent to form the DEE product. As a result, this indirect oxidation mechanism enables ethanol oxidation at much less positive potentials due to the fast kinetics for chloride anion oxidation.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Characterizing Mars's Magnetotail Topology With Respect to the Upstream Interplanetary Magnetic Fields

The canonical picture of the magnetotail of unmagnetized planets consists of draped interplanetary magnetic fields (IMFs) forming opposite-directed lobes, separated by the current sheet. DiBraccio et al. (2018, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL077251) showed that Mars's magnetotail has a twist departing from this picture. Magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) results suggest that the asymmetry in how open field lines connected to the planet populate the tail causes the apparent twist. To validate this interpretation, we compare the tail topology determined from MHD simulations to that inferred from data collected by the Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN (MAVEN) spacecraft, in particular, how each topology responds to the upstream IMF orientation. The occurrence rates for open topology from both data and MHD vary with IMF polarities in a similar fashion as the tail twisting. This suggests that Mars's crustal fields have a global effect on the magnetosphere configuration, supporting the picture of a “hybrid” magnetotail that is partly induced/draped and partly intrinsic/planetary in origin.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Climate Forcing and Trends of Organic Aerosols in the Community Earth System Model (CESM2)

The Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) includes three main atmospheric configurations: the Community Atmosphere Model version 6 (CAM6) with simplified chemistry and a simplified organic aerosol (OA) scheme, CAM6 with comprehensive tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry representation (CAM6-chem), and the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model version 6 (WACCM6). Both, CAM6-chem and WACCM6 include a more comprehensive secondary organic aerosols (SOA) approach using the volatility basis set (vbs) scheme and prognostic stratospheric aerosols. This paper describes the different OA schemes available in the different atmospheric configurations of CESM2 and discusses differences in aerosol burden and resulting climate forcings. Derived OA burden and trends differ due to differences in OA formation using the different approaches. Regional differences in Aerosol Optical Depth with larger values using the comprehensive approach occur over SOA source regions. Stronger increasing SOA trends between 1960 and 2015 in WACCM6 compared to CAM6 are due to increasing biogenic emissions aligned with increasing surface temperatures. Using the comprehensive SOA approach further leads to improved comparisons to aircraft observations and SOA formation of ˜143 Tg/yr. We further use WACCM6 to identify source contributions of OA from biogenic, fossil fuel, and biomass burning emissions, to quantify SOA amounts and trends from these sources. Increasing SOA trends between 1960 and 2015 are the result of increasing biogenic emissions aligned with increasing surface temperatures. Biogenic emissions are at least two thirds of the total SOA burden. In addition, SOA source contributions from fossil fuel emissions become more important, with largest values over Southeast Asia. The estimated total anthropogenic forcing of OA in WACCM6 for 1995–2010 conditions is -0.43 W/m2, mostly from the aerosol direct effect.

Tilmes, S↗

Wintertime particulate matter decrease buffered by unfavorable chemical processes despite emissions reductions in China

Extreme and persistent haze events frequently occur during wintertime China. While recent emissions reductions reduced annual mean fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations over eastern China, their effectiveness on wintertime PM2.5 trend remains uncertain. We use observations and model simulations to quantify seasonal differences in PM2.5 trends and investigate the underlying chemical mechanisms driving such differences. We find a much slower decrease in observed wintertime PM2.5 (–3.2% yr-1) since 2014, in contrast to a drastic summertime decrease (–10.3% yr-1). Simulations show two previously underappreciated mechanisms buffering wintertime PM2.5 decrease, including an increase in oxidation capacity due to nitrogen oxides (NOx) reductions under wintertime volatile organic compound (VOC)- limited chemistry, and an enhanced conversion of nitric acid to nitrate by ammonia due to sulfur dioxide reductions. Our findings suggest that control policies targeting VOC and deep NOx reductions are needed to improve wintertime PM2.5 air quality over China.

Leung, Danny M.↗

Super‐Droplet Method to Simulate Lagrangian Microphysics of Nuclear Fallout in a Homogeneous Cloud

Abstract Nuclear detonations produce hazardous local and global particles or fallout. Predicting fallout size, chemical components, and location is necessary to inform officials and determine immediate guidance for the public. However, existing nuclear detonation fallout models prescribe the particle size distributions based on limited observations. In this work, we apply the super‐droplet method, which is a numerical modeling technique developed for cloud microphysics, to simulate size distributions of particles in a mushroom cloud formed post‐detonation of a nuclear device. We model fallout formation and evolution with homogeneous nucleation and condensation of a single species and a Monte Carlo coagulation algorithm. We verify the numerical methods representing coagulation and condensation processes against analytical test problems. Additionally, we explore several scenarios for the integral system mass and yield in equivalent kilotons (kt) of TNT (trinitrotoluene). The fallout size distribution median diameter d pg follows a scaling law based on the integral system mass m v 0 kg and yield Y kt: nm. We test the effect of cloud turbulence, enhanced nucleation and growth, and vapor volatility with a sensitivity study. The range in median diameter predictions for simulations of historical tests performed over the Pacific encompass the measurements of particles sampled from the cloud caps. Predicted median particle size ranges up to 217, 123, 86, and 35 nm for historical tests with yields of 0.2, 0.7, 2, and 10 Mt, respectively. This work can be expanded in many different directions to build a more predictive model for fallout formation.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

The Response of Summertime Organic Aerosol Composition to Emission Controls in the Northeastern United States

The responses of secondary organic aerosols (SOA) to emission controls remain uncertain due to the limited continuous long‐term measurements. Measurements of detailed carbonaceous aerosol composition in the New York City metropolitan region during the summers of 2001, 2009, 2011, and 2018 provide a look at the changes in summertime SOA over the past two decades when significant pollution reduction and emission controls occurred in the northeastern United States. Here, we show that the averaged nighttime SOA, especially the fresh local SOA, extreme mass concentrations resulted from anthropogenic volatile organic compounds reductions, while there is a little trend for the regional aged SOA. Meanwhile, these fresh SOA extremes occurred most often under conditions of high relative humidity during nighttime. The analysis presented here provides a comprehensive evaluation of the evolution of the increasingly important organic component of the submicron ambient aerosols in this major metropolitan area.

Zhang, Jie↗

The GFDL Variable-Resolution Global Chemistry-Climate Model for Research at the Nexus of US Climate and Air Quality Extremes

We present a variable-resolution global chemistry-climate model (AM4VR) developed at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) for research at the nexus of US climate and air quality extremes. AM4VR has a horizontal resolution of 13 km over the US, allowing it to resolve urban-to-rural chemical regimes, mesoscale convective systems, and land-surface heterogeneity. With the resolution gradually reducing to 100 km over the Indian Ocean, we achieve multi-decadal simulations driven by observed sea surface temperatures at 50% of the computational cost for a 25-km uniform-resolution grid. In contrast with GFDL's AM4.1 contributing to the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project at 100 km resolution, AM4VR features much improved US climate mean patterns and variability. In particular, AM4VR shows improved representation of: precipitation seasonal-to-diurnal cycles and extremes, notably reducing the central US dry-and-warm bias; western US snowpack and summer drought, with implications for wildfires; and the North American monsoon, affecting dust storms. AM4VR exhibits excellent representation of winter precipitation, summer drought, and air pollution meteorology in California with complex terrain, enabling skillful prediction of both extreme summer ozone pollution and winter haze events in the Central Valley. AM4VR also provides vast improvements in the process-level representations of biogenic volatile organic compound emissions, interactive dust emissions from land, and removal of air pollutants by terrestrial ecosystems. We highlight the value of increased model resolution in representing climate–air quality interactions through land-biosphere feedbacks. AM4VR offers a novel opportunity to study global dimensions to US air quality, especially the role of Earth system feedbacks in a changing climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Reducing Long‐Standing Surface Ozone Overestimation in Earth System Modeling by High‐Resolution Simulation and Dry Deposition Improvement

The overestimation of surface ozone concentration in low‐resolution global atmospheric chemistry and climate models has been a long‐standing issue. We first update the ozone dry deposition scheme in both high‐ (0.25°) and low‐resolution (1°) Community Earth System Model (CESM) version 1.3 runs, by adding the effects of leaf area index and correcting the sunlit and shaded fractions of stomatal resistances. With this update, 5‐year‐long summer simulations (2015–2019) using the low‐resolution CESM still exhibit substantial ozone overestimation (by 6.0–16.2 ppbv) over the U.S., Europe, eastern China, and ozone pollution hotspots. The ozone dry deposition scheme is further improved by adjusting the leaf cuticle conductance, reducing the mean ozone bias by 19%, and increasing the model resolution further reduces the ozone overestimation by 43%. We elucidate the mechanism by which model grid spacing influences simulated ozone, revealing distinctive pathways in urban versus rural areas. In rural areas, grid spacing mainly affects daytime ozone levels, where additional NO x emissions from nearby urban areas result in an ozone boost and overestimation in low‐resolution simulations. In contrast, over urban areas, daytime ozone overestimation follows a similar mechanism due to the influence of volatile organic compounds from surrounding rural areas. However, nighttime ozone overestimation is closely linked to weakened NO titration owing to the redistribution of urban NO x to rural areas. Additionally, stratosphere‐troposphere exchange may also contribute to reducing ozone bias in high‐resolution simulations, warranting further investigation. This optimized high‐resolution CESM may enhance understanding of ozone formation mechanisms, sources, and changes in a warming climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Stress Testing California's Hydroclimatic Whiplash: Potential Challenges, Trade‐Offs and Adaptations in Water Management and Hydropower Generation

Abstract Inter‐annual precipitation in California is highly variable, and future projections indicate an increase in the intensity and frequency of hydroclimatic “whiplash.” Understanding the implications of these shocks on California's water system and its degree of resiliency is critical from a planning perspective. Therefore, we quantify the resilience of reservoir services provided by water and hydropower systems in four basins in the western Sierra Nevada. Using downscaled runoff from 10 climate model outputs, we generated 200 synthetic hydrologic whiplash sequences of alternating dry and wet years to represent a wide range of extremes and transitional conditions used as inputs to a water system simulation model. Sequences were derived from upper (wet) and lower (dry) quintiles of future streamflow projections (2030–2060). Results show that carryover storage was negatively affected in all basins, particularly in those with lower storage capacity. All basins experienced negative impacts on hydropower generation, with losses ranging from 5% to nearly 90%. Reservoir sizes and inflexible operating rules are a particular challenge for flood control, as in extremely wet years spillage averaged nearly the annual basins' total discharge. The reliability of environmental flows and agricultural deliveries varied depending on the basin, intensity, and duration of whiplash sequences. Overall, wet years temporarily rebound negative drought effects, and greater storage capacity results in higher reliability and resiliency, and lesser volatility in services. We highlight potential policy changes to improve flexibility, increase resilience, and better equip managers to face challenges posed by whiplash while meeting human and environmental needs.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Future Anthropogenic Land Use Change Impacts on Carbonaceous Aerosol and Implications for Climate and Air Quality

Future anthropogenic land use change (LUC) may alter atmospheric carbonaceous aerosol (black carbon and organic aerosol) burden by perturbing biogenic and fire emissions. However, there has been little investigation of this effect. We examine the global evolution of future carbonaceous aerosol under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways projected reforestation and deforestation scenarios using the CESM2 model from present‐day to 2100. Compared to present‐day, the change in future biogenic volatile organic compounds emission follows changes in forest coverage, while fire emissions decrease in both projections, driven by trends in deforestation fires. The associated carbonaceous aerosol burden change produces moderate aerosol direct radiative forcing (−0.021 to +0.034 W/m 2 ) and modest mean reduction in PM 2.5 exposure (−0.11 μg/m 3 to −0.23 μg/m 3 ) in both scenarios. We find that future anthropogenic LUC may be more important in determining atmospheric carbonaceous aerosol burden than direct anthropogenic emissions, highlighting the importance of further constraining the impact of LUC.>

anthropogenic land use change↗