Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Uncertainties”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 829 records · Page 46
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2003

Application of Probability Methods to Assess Crash Modeling Uncertainty

Full-scale aircraft crash simulations performed with nonlinear, transient dynamic, finite element codes can incorporate structural complexities such as: geometrically accurate models; human occupant models; and advanced material models to include nonlinear stress-strain behaviors, and material failure. Validation of these crash simulations is difficult due to a lack of sufficient information to adequately determine the uncertainty in the experimental data and the appropriateness of modeling assumptions. This paper evaluates probabilistic approaches to quantify the effects of finite element modeling assumptions on the predicted responses. The vertical drop test of a Fokker F28 fuselage section will be the focus of this paper. The results of a probabilistic analysis using finite element simulations will be compared with experimental data.

Lyle, Karen H.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Best Practices for Reduction of Uncertainty in CFD Results

This paper describes a proposed best-practices system that will present expert knowledge in the use of CFD. The best-practices system will include specific guidelines to assist the user in problem definition, input preparation, grid generation, code selection, parameter specification, and results interpretation. The goal of the system is to assist all CFD users in obtaining high quality CFD solutions with reduced uncertainty and at lower cost for a wide range of flow problems. The best-practices system will be implemented as a software product which includes an expert system made up of knowledge databases of expert information with specific guidelines for individual codes and algorithms. The process of acquiring expert knowledge is discussed, and help from the CFD community is solicited. Benefits and challenges associated with this project are examined.

Mendenhall, Michael R.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Uncertainty in Computational Aerodynamics

An approach is presented to treat computational aerodynamics as a process, subject to the fundamental quality assurance principles of process control and process improvement. We consider several aspects affecting uncertainty for the computational aerodynamic process and present a set of stages to determine the level of management required to meet risk assumptions desired by the customer of the predictions.

Luckring, J. M.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Uncertainties in the Thermal and Mechanical Properties of Particulate Composites Quantified

Particle-reinforced composites are candidate materials for a wide variety of aerospace and nonaerospace applications. The high costs and technical difficulties involved with the use of many fiber-reinforced composites often limit their use in many applications. Consequently, particulate composites have emerged as viable alternatives to conventional fiber-reinforced composites. Particulate composites can be processed to near net shapepotentially reducing the manufacturing costs. They are candidate materials where shock or impact properties are important. For example, particle-reinforced metal matrix composites have shown great potential for many automotive applications. Typically, these materials are aluminum matrix reinforced with SiC or TiC particles. Reinforced concrete can also be thought of as a particle-reinforced composite. In situ ceramics can be modeled as particulate composites and are candidate materials for many high-temperature applications. The characterization of these materials is fundamental to their reliable use. It has been observed that the overall properties of these composites exhibit scatter because of the uncertainty in the constituent material properties, and fabrication-related parameters.

Murthy, Pappu L. N.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Probability Distribution Estimated From the Minimum, Maximum, and Most Likely Values: Applied to Turbine Inlet Temperature Uncertainty

Modern engineering design practices are tending more toward the treatment of design parameters as random variables as opposed to fixed, or deterministic, values. The probabilistic design approach attempts to account for the uncertainty in design parameters by representing them as a distribution of values rather than as a single value. The motivations for this effort include preventing excessive overdesign as well as assessing and assuring reliability, both of which are important for aerospace applications. However, the determination of the probability distribution is a fundamental problem in reliability analysis. A random variable is often defined by the parameters of the theoretical distribution function that gives the best fit to experimental data. In many cases the distribution must be assumed from very limited information or data. Often the types of information that are available or reasonably estimated are the minimum, maximum, and most likely values of the design parameter. For these situations the beta distribution model is very convenient because the parameters that define the distribution can be easily determined from these three pieces of information. Widely used in the field of operations research, the beta model is very flexible and is also useful for estimating the mean and standard deviation of a random variable given only the aforementioned three values. However, an assumption is required to determine the four parameters of the beta distribution from only these three pieces of information (some of the more common distributions, like the normal, lognormal, gamma, and Weibull distributions, have two or three parameters). The conventional method assumes that the standard deviation is a certain fraction of the range. The beta parameters are then determined by solving a set of equations simultaneously. A new method developed in-house at the NASA Glenn Research Center assumes a value for one of the beta shape parameters based on an analogy with the normal distribution (ref.1). This new approach allows for a very simple and direct algebraic solution without restricting the standard deviation. The beta parameters obtained by the new method are comparable to the conventional method (and identical when the distribution is symmetrical). However, the proposed method generally produces a less peaked distribution with a slightly larger standard deviation (up to 7 percent) than the conventional method in cases where the distribution is asymmetric or skewed. The beta distribution model has now been implemented into the Fast Probability Integration (FPI) module used in the NESSUS computer code for probabilistic analyses of structures (ref. 2).

Holland, Frederic A., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2005

The Effects of Thrust Uncertainty and Attitude Knowledge Errors on the MMS Formation Maintenance Maneuver

The Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) Mission will use a formation of four spinning spacecraft to study the Earth s magnetosphere. The science objectives of MMS require a near-regular tetrahedron formation to be maintained with side lengths ranging from ten kilometers to several thousand kilometers at orbit apogee. To reduce spacecraft complexity and cost, the current mission concept assumes MMS can achieve its formation goals through open-loop orbit control from the ground, rather than in-flight, closed-loop formation control that has been the subject of recent study. Significant analysis has been performed to provide optimal reference orbit and relative orbit designs. However, the feasibility of achieving these orbits, and maintaining them for an extended period of time in the presence of real world errors and perturbations has not been investigated. In particular, attitude knowledge and control errors, which may have a negligible effect on orbit control for conventional missions with spinning spacecraft, can contribute significant errors to the MMS orbits. In this work, a 6 degree-of-freedom (DOF) simulation is developed and used to analyze the effects of realistic errors on formation maintenance maneuver accuracy. Several realistic considerations including a finite-burn model, attitude perturbations, and thrust uncertainty are studied. The primary objective is to quantify the effects of realistic attitude and orbit control, knowledge, and actuator errors on the formation geometry by observing representative maneuver errors of a single spacecraft.

Tsai, Dean C.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Models of Wake-Vortex Spreading Mechanisms and Their Estimated Uncertainties

One of the primary constraints on the capacity of the nation's air transportation system is the landing capacity at its busiest airports. Many airports with nearly-simultaneous operations on closely-spaced parallel runways (i.e., as close as 750 ft (246m)) suffer a severe decrease in runway acceptance rate when weather conditions do not allow full utilization. The objective of a research program at NASA Ames Research Center is to develop the technologies needed for traffic management in the airport environment so that operations now allowed on closely-spaced parallel runways under Visual Meteorological Conditions can also be carried out under Instrument Meteorological Conditions. As part of this overall research objective, the study reported here has developed improved models for the various aerodynamic mechanisms that spread and transport wake vortices. The purpose of the study is to continue the development of relationships that increase the accuracy of estimates for the along-trail separation distances available before the vortex wake of a leading aircraft intrudes into the airspace of a following aircraft. Details of the models used and their uncertainties are presented in the appendices to the paper. Suggestions are made as to the theoretical and experimental research needed to increase the accuracy of and confidence level in the models presented and instrumentation required or more precise estimates of the motion and spread of vortex wakes. The improved wake models indicate that, if the following aircraft is upwind of the leading aircraft, the vortex wakes of the leading aircraft will not intrude into the airspace of the following aircraft for about 7s (based on pessimistic assumptions) for most atmospheric conditions. The wake-spreading models also indicate that longer time intervals before wake intrusion are available when atmospheric turbulence levels are mild or moderate. However, if the estimates for those time intervals are to be reliable, further study is necessary to develop the instrumentation and procedures needed to accurately define when the more benign atmospheric conditions exist.

Rossow, Vernon J.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Modeling uncertainty in requirements engineering decision support

One inherent characteristic of requrements engineering is a lack of certainty during this early phase of a project. Nevertheless, decisions about requirements must be made in spite of this uncertainty. Here we describe the context in which we are exploring this, and some initial work to support elicitation of uncertain requirements, and to deal with the combination of such information from multiple stakeholders.

risk analysis↗
NASA NTRS2007

Application of Probability Methods to Assess Crash Modeling Uncertainty

Full-scale aircraft crash simulations performed with nonlinear, transient dynamic, finite element codes can incorporate structural complexities such as: geometrically accurate models; human occupant models; and advanced material models to include nonlinear stress-strain behaviors, and material failure. Validation of these crash simulations is difficult due to a lack of sufficient information to adequately determine the uncertainty in the experimental data and the appropriateness of modeling assumptions. This paper evaluates probabilistic approaches to quantify the effects of finite element modeling assumptions on the predicted responses. The vertical drop test of a Fokker F28 fuselage section will be the focus of this paper. The results of a probabilistic analysis using finite element simulations will be compared with experimental data.

Lyle, Karen H.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Spaceborne Doppler Radar Measurements of Rainfall: Correction of Errors Induced by Pointing Uncertainties

In this paper a sea surface radar echo spectral analysis technique to correct for the rainfall velocity error caused by radar-pointing uncertainty is presented. The correction procedure is quite straightforward when the radar is observing a homogeneous rainfall field. When nonuniform beam filling (NUBF) occurs and attenuating frequencies are used, however, additional steps are necessary in order to correctly estimate the antenna-pointing direction. This new technique relies on the application of the combined frequency-time (CFT) algorithm to correct for uneven attenuation effects on the observed sea surface Doppler spectrum. The performance of this correction technique was evaluated by a Monte Carlo simulation of the Doppler precipitation radar backscatter from high-resolution 3D rain fields (either generated by a cloud resolving numerical model or retrieved from airborne radar measurements). The results show that the antenna-pointing-induced error can, indeed, be reduced by the proposed technique in order to achieve 1 m s(exp -1) accuracy on rainfall vertical velocity estimates.

remote sensing↗
NASA NTRS2009

Assessing the Uncertainty of Land Surface Fluxes Derived from Operational Analyses

Operational numerical weather prediction systems assimilate tremendous amounts of observations to produce global analyses of the atmospheric states. Since the systems include significant contributions from the model components, physical fields, such as the turbulent heat fluxes, can also be derived. However, the physical fields are indirectly constrained by the data assimilation, and so subject to uncertainty in the model parameterizations. Recently, 10 international operational analyses have been collected and reprocessed through the Coordinated Enhanced. Observing Period (CEOP). Comparisons against independent observations (global precipitation and outgoing longwave radiation) show that while there is significant range of the individual analyses, the ensemble of analyses provide data closest the observations. Here, we evaluate the collection of land surface turbulent heat fluxes. The data are available for Oct 2002 - Dec 2004, at 6 hourly, daily and monthly intervals. An ensemble mean and its variance have been computed. we will analyze the range of analysis results at daily and seasonal time scales, and where possible compare with existing observations.

Bosilovich, Michael G.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Quantification of the Uncertainties for the Ares I A106 Ascent Aerodynamic Database

A detailed description of the quantification of uncertainties for the Ares I ascent aero 6-DOF wind tunnel database is presented. The database was constructed from wind tunnel test data and CFD results. The experimental data came from tests conducted in the Boeing Polysonic Wind Tunnel in St. Louis and the Unitary Plan Wind Tunnel at NASA Langley Research Center. The major sources of error for this database were: experimental error (repeatability), database modeling errors, and database interpolation errors.

Houlden, Heather P.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Using LIDAR and Quickbird Data to Model Plant Production and Quantify Uncertainties Associated with Wetland Detection and Land Cover Generalizations

Spatiotemporal data from satellite remote sensing and surface meteorology networks have made it possible to continuously monitor global plant production, and to identify global trends associated with land cover/use and climate change. Gross primary production (GPP) and net primary production (NPP) are routinely derived from the MOderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) onboard satellites Terra and Aqua, and estimates generally agree with independent measurements at validation sites across the globe. However, the accuracy of GPP and NPP estimates in some regions may be limited by the quality of model input variables and heterogeneity at fine spatial scales. We developed new methods for deriving model inputs (i.e., land cover, leaf area, and photosynthetically active radiation absorbed by plant canopies) from airborne laser altimetry (LiDAR) and Quickbird multispectral data at resolutions ranging from about 30 m to 1 km. In addition, LiDAR-derived biomass was used as a means for computing carbon-use efficiency. Spatial variables were used with temporal data from ground-based monitoring stations to compute a six-year GPP and NPP time series for a 3600 ha study site in the Great Lakes region of North America. Model results compared favorably with independent observations from a 400 m flux tower and a process-based ecosystem model (BIOME-BGC), but only after removing vapor pressure deficit as a constraint on photosynthesis from the MODIS global algorithm. Fine resolution inputs captured more of the spatial variability, but estimates were similar to coarse-resolution data when integrated across the entire vegetation structure, composition, and conversion efficiencies were similar to upland plant communities. Plant productivity estimates were noticeably improved using LiDAR-derived variables, while uncertainties associated with land cover generalizations and wetlands in this largely forested landscape were considered less important.

Cook, Bruce D.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Safe Onboard Guidance and Control Under Probabilistic Uncertainty

An algorithm was developed that determines the fuel-optimal spacecraft guidance trajectory that takes into account uncertainty, in order to guarantee that mission safety constraints are satisfied with the required probability. The algorithm uses convex optimization to solve for the optimal trajectory. Convex optimization is amenable to onboard solution due to its excellent convergence properties. The algorithm is novel because, unlike prior approaches, it does not require time-consuming evaluation of multivariate probability densities. Instead, it uses a new mathematical bounding approach to ensure that probability constraints are satisfied, and it is shown that the resulting optimization is convex. Empirical results show that the approach is many orders of magnitude less conservative than existing set conversion techniques, for a small penalty in computation time.

Blackmore, Lars James↗
NASA NTRS2011

Forward Modeling of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide in GEOS-5: Uncertainties Related to Surface Fluxes and Sub-Grid Transport

Forward GEOS-5 AGCM simulations of CO2, with transport constrained by analyzed meteorology for 2009-2010, are examined. The CO2 distributions are evaluated using AIRS upper tropospheric CO2 and ACOS-GOSAT total column CO2 observations. Different combinations of surface C02 fluxes are used to generate ensembles of runs that span some uncertainty in surface emissions and uptake. The fluxes are specified in GEOS-5 from different inventories (fossil and biofuel), different data-constrained estimates of land biological emissions, and different data-constrained ocean-biology estimates. One set of fluxes is based on the established "Transcom" database and others are constructed using contemporary satellite observations to constrain land and ocean process models. Likewise, different approximations to sub-grid transport are employed, to construct an ensemble of CO2 distributions related to transport variability. This work is part of NASA's "Carbon Monitoring System Flux Pilot Project,"

Pawson, Steven↗
NASA NTRS2011

Assessment of Uncertainty-Based Screening Volumes for NASA Robotic LEO and GEO Conjunction Risk Assessment

Conjunction Assessment operations require screening assets against the space object catalog by placing a pre-determined spatial volume around each asset and predicting when another object will violate that volume. The selection of the screening volume used for each spacecraft is a trade-off between observing all conjunction events that may pose a potential risk to the primary spacecraft and the ability to analyze those predicted events. If the screening volumes are larger, then more conjunctions can be observed and therefore the probability of a missed detection of a high risk conjunction event is small; however, the amount of data which needs to be analyzed increases. This paper characterizes the sensitivity of screening volume size to capturing typical orbit uncertainties and the expected number of conjunction events observed. These sensitivities are quantified in the form of a trade space that allows for selection of appropriate screen-ing volumes to fit the desired concept of operations, system limitations, and tolerable analyst workloads. This analysis will specifically highlight the screening volume determination and selection process for use in the NASA Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis process but will also provide a general framework for other Owner / Operators faced with similar decisions.

Narvet, Steven W.↗