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Spheres of Earth: An Introduction to Making Observations of Earth Using an Earth System's Science Approach. Student Guide

Scientists from the Image Science and Analysis Laboratory (ISAL) at NASA's Johnson Space Center (JSC) work with astronauts onboard the International Space Station (ISS) who take images of Earth. Astronaut photographs, sometimes referred to as Crew Earth Observations, are taken using hand-held digital cameras onboard the ISS. These digital images allow scientists to study our Earth from the unique perspective of space. Astronauts have taken images of Earth since the 1960s. There is a database of over 900,000 astronaut photographs available at http://eol.jsc.nasa.gov . Images are requested by ISAL scientists at JSC and astronauts in space personally frame and acquire them from the Destiny Laboratory or other windows in the ISS. By having astronauts take images, they can specifically frame them according to a given request and need. For example, they can choose to use different lenses to vary the amount of area (field of view) an image will cover. Images can be taken at different times of the day which allows different lighting conditions to bring out or highlight certain features. The viewing angle at which an image is acquired can also be varied to show the same area from different perspectives. Pointing the camera straight down gives you a nadir shot. Pointing the camera at an angle to get a view across an area would be considered an oblique shot. Being able to change these variables makes astronaut photographs a unique and useful data set. Astronaut photographs are taken from the ISS from altitudes of 300 - 400 km (~185 to 250 miles). One of the current cameras being used, the Nikon D3X digital camera, can take images using a 50, 100, 250, 400 or 800mm lens. These different lenses allow for a wider or narrower field of view. The higher the focal length (800mm for example) the narrower the field of view (less area will be covered). Higher focal lengths also show greater detail of the area on the surface being imaged. Scientists from the Image Science and Analysis Laboratory (ISAL) at NASA s Johnson Space Center (JSC) work with astronauts onboard the International Space Station (ISS) who take images of Earth. Astronaut photographs, sometimes referred to as Crew Earth Observations, are taken using hand-held digital cameras onboard the ISS. These digital images allow scientists to study our Earth from the unique perspective of space. Astronauts have taken images of Earth since the 1960s. There is a database of over 900,000 astronaut photographs available at http://eol.jsc.nasa.gov . Images are requested by ISAL scientists at JSC and astronauts in space personally frame and acquire them from the Destiny Laboratory or other windows in the ISS. By having astronauts take images, they can specifically frame them according to a given request and need. For example, they can choose to use different lenses to vary the amount of area (field of view) an image will cover. Images can be taken at different times of the day which allows different lighting conditions to bring out or highlight certain features. The viewing angle at which an image is acquired can also be varied to show the same area from different perspectives. Pointing the camera straight down gives you a nadir shot. Pointing the camera at an angle to get a view across an area would be considered an oblique shot. Being able to change these variables makes astronaut photographs a unique and useful data set. Astronaut photographs are taken from the ISS from altitudes of 300 - 400 km (approx.185 to 250 miles). One of the current cameras being used, the Nikon D3X digital camera, can take images using a 50, 100, 250, 400 or 800mm lens. These different lenses allow for a wider or narrower field of view. The higher the focal length (800mm for example) the narrower the field of view (less area will be covered). Higher focal lengths also show greater detail of the area on the surface being imaged. There are four major systems or spheres of Earth. They are: Atmosphere, Biosphere, Hydrosphe, and Litho/Geosphere.

Graff, Paige Valderrama↗

Receiver Signal to Noise Ratios for IPDA Lidars Using Sine-wave and Pulsed Laser Modulation and Direct Detections

Integrated path differential absorption (IPDA) lidar can be used to remotely measure the column density of gases in the path to a scattering target [1]. The total column gas molecular density can be derived from the ratio of the laser echo signal power with the laser wavelength on the gas absorption line (on-line) to that off the line (off-line). 80th coherent detection and direct detection IPDA lidar have been used successfully in the past in horizontal path and airborne remote sensing measurements. However, for space based measurements, the signal propagation losses are often orders of magnitude higher and it is important to use the most efficient laser modulation and detection technique to minimize the average laser power and the electrical power from the spacecraft. This paper gives an analysis the receiver signal to noise ratio (SNR) of several laser modulation and detection techniques versus the average received laser power under similar operation environments. Coherent detection [2] can give the best receiver performance when the local oscillator laser is relatively strong and the heterodyne mixing losses are negligible. Coherent detection has a high signal gain and a very narrow bandwidth for the background light and detector dark noise. However, coherent detection must maintain a high degree of coherence between the local oscillator laser and the received signal in both temporal and spatial modes. This often results in a high system complexity and low overall measurement efficiency. For measurements through atmosphere the coherence diameter of the received signal also limits the useful size of the receiver telescope. Direct detection IPDA lidars are simpler to build and have fewer constraints on the transmitter and receiver components. They can use much larger size 'photon-bucket' type telescopes to reduce the demands on the laser transmitter. Here we consider the two most widely used direct detection IPDA lidar techniques. The first technique uses two CW seeder lasers, one on-line and one offline that are intensity modulated by two different frequency sine-waves signals before being amplified by a common laser amplifier. The receiver uses narrowband amplitude demodulation, or lock-in, Signal processing at the given laser modulation frequencies [3,4]. The laser transmitter operates in a quasi CW mode with the peak power equal to twice the average power. The on-line and off-line lasers can be transmitted at the same time without interference. Another direct detection technique uses a low duty cycle pulsed laser modulation [5,6] with the laser wavelengths alternating between on-line and off-line on successive pulses. The receiver uses time resolved detection and can also provide simultaneous target range measurement. With a lower laser duty cycle it requires a much higher peak laser power for the same average power.

Sun, Xiaoli↗

The Use of Tribocharging in the Electrostatic Beneficiation of Lunar Simulant

Any future lunar base and habitat must be constructed from strong dense materials in order to provide for thermal and radiation protection. Lunar soil may meet this need. Lunar regolith has high concentrations of aluminum, silicon, calcium, iron, sodium, and titanium oxides. Refinement or enrichment of specific minerals in the soil before it is chemically processed may be more desirable as it would reduce the size and energy requirements required to produce the virgin material and it may significantly reduce the process' complexity. Also, investigations into the potential production of breathable oxygen from oxidized mineral components are a major research initiative by NASA. In this study. the objective was to investigate the use of tribocharging to charge lunar simulants and pass them through a parallel plate separator to enrich different mineral fractions. This technique takes advantage of the high Lunar vacuum in which much higher voltages can be used on the separation plates than in air. Additionally, the Lunar g1avity, only being 1/6 that of Earth, allows the particles more separation time between the plates and therefore enhances separation. For the separation studies, two lunar stimulants were used. The first simulant was created in-house, labeled KSC-1. using commercially supplied (sieved to 325 mesh) materials, and was composed of 40 wt. % feldspar ((Na,K,Ca)AlSi3O8;SiO2), 40 wt. % olivine ((Mg,Fe)2SiO4), 10 wt. % ilmenite (FeTiO3). and 10 wt. % spodumene (LiAlSi2O6) (pyroxene). The advantage of the in-house mixture is that the composition can he varied to simulate different soil compositions from different areas on the moon. This simulant was used to show proof-of-concept using the designed separator in air. The second stimulant was JSC-1. used for the vacuum experiments. JSC-1 is principally basalts, containing phases of plagioclase. pyroxene. olivine, and ilmenite. The JSC-1 was sieved to provide a 50-75 micron size range to correlate with the mean grain size found on the moon's surface [1]. Four different materials were investigated for the triboelectrification process; aluminum, copper. stainless steel, and PTFE. These materials were selected because they offer a wide variation in work functions (aluminum 4.28 eV, copper 4.65 eV. stainless steel 5.04 eV, and PTFE 5.75 eV). The difference between the work function of each material and the simulant influences the charge obtained by the grains. Each simulant was analyzed before and after separation using X-ray Photoelectron Spectroscopy (XPS) to determine mineral surface composition. In addition. Raman spectroscopy was performed on the JSC-1 before and after separation in vacuum to determine the mineral composition. Charge-to-mass (Q/M) measurements were performed using a fluidizing bed in air and passing the simulant through a static mixer of a particular material and collecting it in a Faraday pail grounded through an electrometer. To measure the Q/M in vacuum, a special device was constructed consisting of a heater/shaker cup that fed into a solid block of material (either PTFE, copper, or aluminum) in which a channel composed of a "zig-zag" series of inclines greater than 50 degrees has been cut. The voltage to the vibrating motor can be varied to control the amount of simulant passing through the channel. Figure I shows the Q/M measurements for JSC-1 tribocharged using the static mixers and the incline plane chargers in air, and the incline plane chargers in vacuum.

Trigwell, S.↗

Estimation of the Relationship Between Remotely Sensed Anthropogenic Heat Discharge and Building Energy Use

This paper examined the relationship between remotely sensed anthropogenic heat discharge and energy use from residential and commercial buildings across multiple scales in the city of Indianapolis, Indiana, USA. The anthropogenic heat discharge was estimated with a remote sensing-based surface energy balance model, which was parameterized using land cover, land surface temperature, albedo, and meteorological data. The building energy use was estimated using a GIS-based building energy simulation model in conjunction with Department of Energy/Energy Information Administration survey data, the Assessor's parcel data, GIS floor areas data, and remote sensing-derived building height data. The spatial patterns of anthropogenic heat discharge and energy use from residential and commercial buildings were analyzed and compared. Quantitative relationships were evaluated across multiple scales from pixel aggregation to census block. The results indicate that anthropogenic heat discharge is consistent with building energy use in terms of the spatial pattern, and that building energy use accounts for a significant fraction of anthropogenic heat discharge. The research also implies that the relationship between anthropogenic heat discharge and building energy use is scale-dependent. The simultaneous estimation of anthropogenic heat discharge and building energy use via two independent methods improves the understanding of the surface energy balance in an urban landscape. The anthropogenic heat discharge derived from remote sensing and meteorological data may be able to serve as a spatial distribution proxy for spatially-resolved building energy use, and even for fossil-fuel CO2 emissions if additional factors are considered.

Multi-scale↗

Pre-Test Assessment of the Use Envelope of the Normal Force of a Wind Tunnel Strain-Gage Balance

The relationship between the aerodynamic lift force generated by a wind tunnel model, the model weight, and the measured normal force of a strain-gage balance is investigated to better understand the expected use envelope of the normal force during a wind tunnel test. First, the fundamental relationship between normal force, model weight, lift curve slope, model reference area, dynamic pressure, and angle of attack is derived. Then, based on this fundamental relationship, the use envelope of a balance is examined for four typical wind tunnel test cases. The first case looks at the use envelope of the normal force during the test of a light wind tunnel model at high subsonic Mach numbers. The second case examines the use envelope of the normal force during the test of a heavy wind tunnel model in an atmospheric low-speed facility. The third case reviews the use envelope of the normal force during the test of a floor-mounted semi-span model. The fourth case discusses the normal force characteristics during the test of a rotated full-span model. The wind tunnel model's lift-to-weight ratio is introduced as a new parameter that may be used for a quick pre-test assessment of the use envelope of the normal force of a balance. The parameter is derived as a function of the lift coefficient, the dimensionless dynamic pressure, and the dimensionless model weight. Lower and upper bounds of the use envelope of a balance are defined using the model's lift-to-weight ratio. Finally, data from a pressurized wind tunnel is used to illustrate both application and interpretation of the model's lift-to-weight ratio.

strain-gage balance↗

An Assessment of Actual and Potential Building Climate Zone Change and Variability From the Last 30 Years Through 2100 Using NASA's MERRA and CMIP5 Simulations

Background: In the US, residential and commercial building infrastructure combined consumes about 40% of total energy usage and emits about 39% of total CO2 emission (DOE/EIA "Annual Energy Outlook 2013"). Building codes, as used by local and state enforcement entities are typically tied to the dominant climate within an enforcement jurisdiction classified according to various climate zones. These climate zones are based upon a 30-year average of local surface observations and are developed by DOE and ASHRAE. Establishing the current variability and potential changes to future building climate zones is very important for increasing the energy efficiency of buildings and reducing energy costs and emissions in the future. Objectives: This paper demonstrates the usefulness of using NASA's Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) atmospheric data assimilation to derive the DOE/ASHRAE building climate zone maps and then using MERRA to define the last 30 years of variability in climate zones for the Continental US. An atmospheric assimilation is a global atmospheric model optimized to satellite, atmospheric and surface in situ measurements. Using MERRA as a baseline, we then evaluate the latest Climate Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP) climate model Version 5 runs to assess potential variability in future climate zones under various assumptions. Methods: We derive DOE/ASHRAE building climate zones using surface and temperature data products from MERRA. We assess these zones using the uncertainties derived by comparison to surface measurements. Using statistical tests, we evaluate variability of the climate zones in time and assess areas in the continental US for statistically significant trends by region. CMIP 5 produced a data base of over two dozen detailed climate model runs under various greenhouse gas forcing assumptions. We evaluate the variation in building climate zones for 3 different decades using an ensemble and quartile statistics to provide an assessment of potential building climate zone changes relative to the uncertainties demonstrated using MERRA. Findings and Conclusions: These results show that there is a statistically significant increase in the area covered by warmer climate zones and a tendency for a reduction of area in colder climate zones in some limited regions. The CMIP analysis shows that models vary from relatively little building climate zone change for the least sensitive and conservation assumptions to a warming of at most 3 zones for certain areas, particularly the north central US by the end of the 21st century.

Stackhouse, Paul W., Jr.↗

Using Natural Language to Enhance Mission Effectiveness

The availability of highly capable, yet relatively cheap, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) is opening up new areas of use for hobbyists and for professional-related activities. The driving function of this research is allowing a non-UAV pilot, an operator, to define and manage a mission. This paper describes the preliminary usability measures of an interface that allows an operator to define the mission using speech to make inputs. An experiment was conducted to begin to enumerate the efficacy and user acceptance of using voice commands to define a multi-UAV mission and to provide high-level vehicle control commands such as "takeoff." The primary independent variable was input type - voice or mouse. The primary dependent variables consisted of the correctness of the mission parameter inputs and the time needed to make all inputs. Other dependent variables included NASA-TLX workload ratings and subjective ratings on a final questionnaire. The experiment required each subject to fill in an online form that contained comparable required information that would be needed for a package dispatcher to deliver packages. For each run, subjects typed in a simple numeric code for the package code. They then defined the initial starting position, the delivery location, and the return location using either pull-down menus or voice input. Voice input was accomplished using CMU Sphinx4-5prealpha for speech recognition. They then inputted the length of the package. These were the option fields. The subject had the system "Calculate Trajectory" and then "Takeoff" once the trajectory was calculated. Later, the subject used "Land" to finish the run. After the voice and mouse input blocked runs, subjects completed a NASA-TLX. At the conclusion of all runs, subjects completed a questionnaire asking them about their experience in inputting the mission parameters, and starting and stopping the mission using mouse and voice input. In general, the usability of voice commands is acceptable. With a relatively well-defined and simple vocabulary, the operator can input the vast majority of the mission parameters using simple, intuitive voice commands. However, voice input may be more applicable to initial mission specification rather than for critical commands such as the need to land immediately due to time and feedback constraints. It would also be convenient to retrieve relevant mission information using voice input. Therefore, further on-going research is looking at using intent from operator utterances to provide the relevant mission information to the operator. The information displayed will be inferred from the operator's utterances just before key phrases are spoken. Linguistic analysis of the context of verbal communication provides insight into the intended meaning of commonly heard phrases such as "What's it doing now?" Analyzing the semantic sphere surrounding these common phrases enables us to predict the operator's intent and supply the operator's desired information to the interface. This paper also describes preliminary investigations into the generation of the semantic space of UAV operation and the success at providing information to the interface based on the operator's utterances.

Trujillo, Anna C.↗

Use of Schema on Read in Earth Science Data Archives

Traditionally, NASA Earth Science data archives have file-based storage using proprietary data file formats, such as HDF and HDF-EOS, which are optimized to support fast and efficient storage of spaceborne and model data as they are generated. The use of file-based storage essentially imposes an indexing strategy based on data dimensions. In most cases, NASA Earth Science data uses time as the primary index, leading to poor performance in accessing data in spatial dimensions. For example, producing a time series for a single spatial grid cell involves accessing a large number of data files. With exponential growth in data volume due to the ever-increasing spatial and temporal resolution of the data, using file-based archives poses significant performance and cost barriers to data discovery and access. Storing and disseminating data in proprietary data formats imposes an additional access barrier for users outside the mainstream research community. At the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data Information Services Center (GES DISC), we have evaluated applying the schema-on-read principle to data access and distribution. We used Apache Parquet to store geospatial data, and have exposed data through Amazon Web Services (AWS) Athena, AWS Simple Storage Service (S3), and Apache Spark. Using the schema-on-read approach allows customization of indexing spatially or temporally to suit the data access pattern. The storage of data in open formats such as Apache Parquet has widespread support in popular programming languages. A wide range of solutions for handling big data lowers the access barrier for all users. This presentation will discuss formats used for data storage, frameworks with This presentation will discuss formats used for data storage, frameworks with support for schema-on-read used for data access, and common use cases covering data usage patterns seen in a geospatial data archive.

cloud applications↗

Investigation of Magmatic Activities on Early Mars Using Igneous Mineral Chemistry in Gale Crater, Mars

One objective of rover missions is exploring the geological context of the surroundings. Over the years, igneous petrology and sedimentology have been disconnected, the first investigating magmatic processes and volcanic activities, and the second seeking environmental conditions in the past and assessing the habitability of the planet. Although different, one is related to the other: igneous rocks are altered and broken down, leading to the formation of sedimentary rocks, which can in turn be used to back out the nature of their magmatic source. The Curiosity rover that landed in the 3.7 Gyr old impact crater Gale is traveling through sedimentary rocks. About fifty float rocks have been observed, and several of them with ambiguous texture and composition have been classified as igneous or sedimentary depending on studies such as Jake_M. The composition of several unambiguous igneous rocks has been analyzed [4- 6] but their heterogeneity at a larger instrumental (measurement size < 2 cm) scale prevents the measurement of a bulk composition as performed on Earth. An original approach avoiding these two last issues is to consider igneous mineral chemistry analyzed within igneous and sedimentary rocks to assess magmatic processes that could have formed them. Most Curiosity data are used to explore ancient environmental conditions, and a significant number of compositional analyses are under-explored for constraining magmatic activities. We will present how we can make use of sedimentary data for investigating igneous processes in the vicinity of Gale crater. Geological Context: We focus on the first 750 martian days, corresponding to measurements in a coherent lacustrine sedimentary unit called Bradbury, because all sedimentary rocks were sourced from the same watershed and appear to have a consistent source with minimal alteration [2-3]. Igneous detrital minerals including feldspar and pyroxene, are observed in sedimentary rocks. Monte Carlo models showed that minimal cation loss is observed based on the composition of all Bradbury rocks, implying negligible weathering [3]. Although clay minerals are detected in few rocks [7], chemical compositions of rocks can be explained by a mixture of primary igneous minerals [3]. Variation of composition within Bradbury rocks can be explained by mineral sorting and one distinct source component. While a common magmatic source is suggested, Bradbury sediments likely come from several volcanic eruptions from a single magmatic chamber [9- 10]. The occurrence of alkali minerals like sanidine and K-rich rocks throughout Bradbury supports the presence of a potassic component, likely trachytic, while plagioclase and a mafic composition suggest a basaltic component [8-9]. Instruments: Mineral chemistry can be estimated by three instruments onboard Curiosity. The CheMin instrument enables detection of mineral assemblages using X-ray diffraction (XRD). Using Rietveld refinement, each mineral is identified according to their 1D XRD pattern [11]. Note that distinction between pyroxene minerals is challenging with the CheMin instrument due to overlapping peaks on XRD patterns and low angular resolution of the instrument [12]. Then, using least square regression and optimization algorithms based on unit-cell parameters, mineral chemistry has been estimated by [11]. Plagioclase composition has been estimated using the NaAlSi3O8- CaAl2Si2O8 system and alkali feldspar is based on the NaAlSi3O8-KAlSi3O8 system (stars in Fig.1). Two mudstone samples (John Klein and Cumberland) and one sandstone sample (Windjana) were analyzed by CheMin at Yellowknife Bay and Kimberley, respectively. Figure 1. Ternary diagrams of feldspars (top) and pyroxene (bottom) quadrilateral. Stars correspond to CheMin composition and the gray patches to ChemCam composition. The colored dots are the composition of feldspar and pyroxene that crystallized during fractional crystallization at FMQ+1 of a melt extracted at distinct melting degree during the adiabatic ascent of a primitive mantle composition, without any water (left panels) and with 0.5 wt.% of water (right panels) at distinct pressure. The ChemCam instrument enables the analysis of the chemical compositions of rocks at hundreds of micrometer scale (350-550 μm) using laser induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS), which may provide the composition of minerals when they are larger than the beam spot (>550 μm) [13]. Within >5000 LIBS points, we performed a typical stoichiometric filtering allowing us to distinguish 56 feldspar and 10 pyroxene mineral compositions (grey patches in Fig. 1). Finally, the Alpha Particle X-ray Spectrometer (APXS) analyzes the composition of rocks with a 1.6 cm diameter spot size. Monte Carlo mass balance modeling allowed [3] to decipher a feldspar range varying between An30 and An40 (Fig. 1). Discussion: Although there could be a more complex history and other ways to form the whole compositional range of igneous minerals analyzed within the Bradbury formation, we are presenting here simple magmatic pathways commonly occurring on Earth using the thermodynamical softwares pMELTS and rhyoliteMELTS [14]. The objective is to find reasonable igneous processes that produce minerals that parallel the compositions of feldspar and pyroxene analyzed by the Curiosity rover. As commonly observed for mid-ocean ridge basalts, the adiabatic ascent of a primitive mantle composition [15] partially melting at 2 GPa has been modeled, followed by the extraction of a liquid at distinct degrees of partial melting, which undergoes fractional crystallization at an oxygen fugacity +1 log unit above the fayalite-magnetite-quartz (FMQ) buffer within the crust (0.02-0.4 GPa) with H2O = 0- 0.5 wt. %. These latter conditions correspond to those recorded within igneous clasts from the Noachian martian breccia NWA 7034 and paired and within Gale igneous rocks (colored dots in Fig. 1) [16-17]. To check the reliability of these 2-step models, we also tested fractional crystallization at similar conditions (FMQ+1; P=0.02-0.4 GPa; H2O = 0-0.5 wt. %) of starting compositions corresponding to that of magmas with distinct melting degrees obtained from isobaric experiments at 2 GPa [18]. Mineral compositions obtained from both models are similar. As shown on Fig. 1, the whole range of observed feldspar compositions cannot be reproduced by fractionation of one magma only. Indeed, while alkali feldspar and Na-plagioclase likely crystallized from fractional crystallization of a low-degree melt (here <15%), plagioclase and pyroxene can only be formed by fractional crystallization of a higher degree melt (here >19%). The corresponding liquid descent lines are broadly in agreement with compositions estimated by ChemCam corresponding to float igneous rocks (Fig. 2) [4-6]. Figure 2. Silica versus alkali content. Lines show the liquid lines of descent from magmas with distinct degrees of melting. Gray patches represents the composition of Gale igneous rocks [4-6]. Trachytic to rhyolitic magmas crystallize alkali feldspar, and andesite to dacite magmas likely form plagioclase. Therefore, at least two starting magmas at distinct melting degrees, which could easily come from a single mantle source, are necessary to explain the whole compositional range of feldspar and pyroxene analyzed within Bradbury rocks. Conclusion: Because rocks from the Bradbury formation are likely originating from the same magmatic source with minimal weathering as supported by several studies using different approaches, igneous mineral chemistry analyzed by CheMin and ChemCam allows us to back out reasonable magmatic pathways that could have crystallized them. Fractional crystallization of at least two starting magmas originating from distinct melting degrees of a single mantle source can explain the whole range of feldspar and pyroxene composition. Both alkaline and sub-alkaline liquids can be produced, with compositions corresponding to those of the igneous rocks analyzed by ChemCam within the Bradbury formation, highlighting the complexity of Mars magmatism.

Payre, V.↗

Use of Design of Experiments and Rule-Based Inference in Determining Neural Network Architectures for Loss of Control Detection

In this work, we describe methods for selecting the neural network architectures and input spaces to implement belief state inference on generic commercial transport aircraft. First, we highlight a case study on the planning, execution, and analysis of a set of experiments to determine the configurations of a conditional variational autoencoder (CVAE). We present a structured method that can be used in a number of aerospace applications, to optimize the structure and training parameters of the CVAE for belief state inference, using Design of Experiments (DOE) statistical methodologies. The motivation for this specific DOE was to identify the appropriate hyperparameters for measuring the CVAE reconstruction probability and latent space, such that the measurements can be used to infer qualitative state changes for the aircraft. We demonstrate that this process yields information about a trained neural network’s utility for this specific application, along with a quantifiable range of certainty. We execute 84 experiments using loss-of-control flight maneuver data from a NASA T-2 aircraft, demonstrating that this empirical process allows us to construct cheap and simple models with specific attributes amenable to belief state inference in aerospace applications. While theoretically, we could create a single CVAE with an input space the size of all measurable flight variables and environmental dynamics, it becomes intractable to use such a neural network in an in-situ intelligent multi-agent system. Using the recommendations from our case study, we introduce a technical approach for feasibly describing the belief space by (1) identifying significant statistical relationships among flight variables using rule induction, (2) using a set of rules that cover all features to define the input space of multiple CVAEs, and (3) forming a belief space based on the joint probability density of their collective latent spaces. This results in a series of relatively small matrix multiplications that can be performed in real time, as opposed to large matrix computations in a single CVAE. We demonstrate the application of this approach on the T-2 flight loss-of control experiments, using the architecture and hyperparameter recommendations from the case study. We compare the utilities of an individual CVAE trained on all flight variables and multiple CVAEs defined on subsets of flight variables for detecting qualitative changes in flight. We demonstrate that the use of multiple CVAEs with smaller input spaces permits the CVAE to capture more granular relationships in the latent space, permitting better state space characterization and loss-of-control detection.

Design of experiments↗

Normalization Method and Application for MODIS TEB Assessments using Earth Scene Measurements

Selected Earth targets are commonly used for satellite sensor calibration assessments (e.g. sensor stability and inter-comparisons). Moreover, typical scenes used for the calibration assessment of the thermal emissive bands (TEBs) includeDome Concordia (Dome-C), ocean, desert, and deep convective clouds (DCC). Reference data used for these calibration assessments can come from another band, another instrument, or ground measurements. The Dome-C site, covered with uniformly-distributed permanent snow, is normally used for the assessment of the TEBsat cold temperatures. Furthermore, ocean and desert measurements prove useful for scenes with higher temperatures. The DCC, one of the most consistent and coldest targets, can be used for the TEBs calibration and product stability assessments. MODIS band 31 (~ 11 m) can be used as a reference for these scenes. However, measurements over these scenes have seasonal variations, and the DCC brightness temperatures (BTs) have asymmetrical distributions. These features can introduce additional uncertainty to the stability assessments. A normalization method is applied by using an empirical model to derive reference-dependent BTs. Using the developed empirical model, measurements can be normalized to a reference BT in order to enhance the calibration assessment’s accuracy. This method is evaluated using all four scene types (i.e. ocean, desert, snow (Dome-C), and DCC) and applied to all the Terra and Aqua MODIS TEBs. Stability assessments over the instruments’ entire data records are presented and discussed. The technique can be applied in future efforts to support MODIS TEBs calibration assessments.

MODIS TEB↗

Progress on Inverse Estimation Technique of Non-Linear Pitch Damping Coefficient Curves Using Free-Flight CFD Generated Trajectories

Characterization of entry vehicle pitch damping coefficient curves is crucial to ensure appropriate re-entry and overall mission success. The pitch damping coefficient (C_(m_q )+C_(m_α ̇ )) is used to encapsulate the oscillatory growth or decay of a body during a trajectory. The inverse estimation technique utilizes an existing Free-Flight CFD (FF-CFD) dataset and wraps a reconstruction algorithm in an optimizer. The reconstruction integrates the planar equations of motion derived by Schoenenberger, Queen [1] using Python’s scipy.integrate.solve_ivp. The optimizer’s objective function is the normalized 𝐿2 residual of the angle of attack peaks between the reconstructed trajectory and the original data produced with FF-CFD. Inclusion of the peak times in this residual calculation allows for simultaneous optimization of the pitch moment coefficient, C_(m_α ). This residual equation is shown below in Eq. 1. The optimizer scipy.optimize.minimize was used with the gradient-based Powell method for the analysis presented, however the differential evolution method was investigated as means of comparison, and was found to produce marginally lower residual values with prohibitively longer run times. Further, the pitch damping curve is found by fitting a cubic interpolation function to a set of (α, (C_(m_q )+C_(m_α ̇ ))) control points, where the α points are held constant and the (C_(m_q )+C_(m_α ̇ )) values are the optimized parameters. The pitch moment curve uses a linear interpolation between the minimum and maximum α in the dataset. FF-CFD generated trajectories using the Dragonfly capsule geometry with the Genesis ballistic range model parameters were simulated and used for this analysis. These FF-CFD trajectories simulate planar motion, as restricted by the reconstructing the equations of motion, of three different cases: 1-DoF (free-to-pitch), 2-DoF (free-to-pitch and heave), and 3-DoF (free-to-pitch, heave, and decelerate). Pitch damping coefficient curves generated using this inverse estimation curve technique with FF-CFD 1-DoF Dragonfly data are found in Fig. 1. Preliminary results reconstructing ballistic range shots using these FF-CFD derived predictions of the pitch damping curve (Fig. 1) are shown in Fig. 2. It should be noted that the ballistic range shot used a Genesis model whereas the FF-CFD data used a Dragonfly geometry, however these geometries are similar.

entry↗

Hourly Carbon Fluxes Estimation Using the GOES Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) Data Over the Conterminous USA

Tremendous efforts by Fluxnet scientists over the past few decades have made thousands of site-years of carbon flux observations available for advancing our understanding of carbon cycling in terrestrial ecosystems. One of key Fluxnet measurements is net ecosystem exchange (NEE) as it is directly related to carbon budget of terrestrial ecosystems. However, carbon flux estimation studies using satellite remote sensing have focused mainly on daily Gross Primary Production (GPP). The satellite based carbon flux estimation used the polar orbiting satellite sensors (e.g., Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)), which allow us to observe target regions only once during the day. Because daily NEE is close to zero value, the carbon flux models using the polar orbiting satellite data have not been well used for NEE estimation. The new generation of geostationary satellite sensors (e.g., GOES Advanced Baesline Imager (ABI) and Himawari Advanced Himawari Imager (AHI)) provide frequent observations, often less than every 10 minutes. Here, we use GOES ABI data to estimate hourly NEE over the conterminous USA. We used the Terrestrial Observation Prediction System (TOPS) model for estimating hourly NEE. TOPS is a diagnostic ecosystem process model that simulates the fluxes of carbon and water through vegetation in response to climate variability. For the climate input, we developed hourly climate data using the same algorithm with NASA Earth Exchange Gridded Daily Meteorology (NEX-GDM) datasets based on machine learning techniques. The hourly climate data includes precipitation, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, dew point temperature, and, in particular, solar radiation that is directly derived from the Geostationary observations. The spatial patterns of ecosystem parameters used in TOPS are optimized using satellite Solar Induced Fluorescence (SIF) data. The high frequency GPP estimations from geostationary satellite sensors make it comparable to the instantaneous SIF data than daily GPP. We also used Fluxnet data for optimization of model parameters and the validation of the output. The derived data addresses the diurnal dynamics of carbon cycling at large scales and should help in reducing the uncertainties in carbon budget studies.

Geostationary satellite↗

Harmonising the Land-Use Flux Estimates of Global Models and National Inventories for 2000–2020

As the focus of climate policy shifts from pledges to implementation, there is a growing need to track progress on climate change mitigation at the country level, particularly for the land-use sector. Despite new tools and models providing unprecedented monitoring opportunities, striking differences remain in estimations of anthropogenic land-use CO 2 fluxes between, on the one hand, the national greenhouse gas inventories (NGHGIs) used to assess compliance with national climate targets under the Paris Agreement and, on the other hand, the Global Carbon Budget and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment reports, both based on global bookkeeping models (BMs). Recent studies have shown that these differences are mainly due to inconsistent definitions of anthropogenic CO 2 fluxes in managed forests. Countries assume larger areas of forest to be managed than BMs do, due to a broader definition of managed land in NGHGIs. Additionally, the fraction of the land sink caused by indirect effects of human-induced environmental change (e.g. fertilisation effect on vegetation growth due to increased atmospheric CO 2 concentration) on managed lands is treated as non-anthropogenic by BMs but as anthropogenic in most NGHGIs. We implement an approach that adds the CO 2 sink caused by environmental change in countries' managed forests (estimated by 16 dynamic global vegetation models, DGVMs) to the land-use fluxes from three BMs. This sum is conceptually more comparable to NGHGIs and is thus expected to be quantitatively more similar. Our analysis uses updated and more comprehensive data from NGHGIs than previous studies and provides model results at a greater level of disaggregation in terms of regions, countries and land categories (i.e. forest land, deforestation, organic soils, other land uses). Our results confirm a large difference (6.7 GtCO 2 yr −1 ) in global land-use CO 2 fluxes between the ensemble mean of the BMs, which estimate a source of 4.8 GtCO 2 yr −1 for the period 2000–2020, and NGHGIs, which estimate a sink of −1.9 GtCO 2 yr −1 in the same period. Most of the gap is found on forest land (3.5 GtCO 2 yr −1 ), with differences also for deforestation (2.4 GtCO 2 yr −1 ), for fluxes from other land uses (1.0 GtCO 2 yr −1 ) and to a lesser extent for fluxes from organic soils (0.2 GtCO2 yr−1). By adding the DGVM ensemble mean sink arising from environmental change in managed forests (−6.4 GtCO 2 yr −1 ) to BM estimates, the gap between BMs and NGHGIs becomes substantially smaller both globally (residual gap: 0.3 GtCO 2 yr −1 ) and in most regions and countries. However, some discrepancies remain and deserve further investigation. For example, the BMs generally provide higher emissions from deforestation than NGHGIs and, when adjusted with the sink in managed forests estimated by DGVMs, yield a sink that is often greater than NGHGIs. In summary, this study provides a blueprint for harmonising the estimations of anthropogenic land-use fluxes, allowing for detailed comparisons between global models and national inventories at global, regional and country levels. This is crucial to increase confidence in land-use emissions estimates, support investments in land-based mitigation strategies and assess the countries' collective progress under the Global Stocktake of the Paris Agreement.

Giacomo Grassi↗

Evaluation of the GaAs displacement damage metric using updated nuclear data

The emerging use of the physics-based athermal recombination-corrected displacement per atom (arc-dpa) model for the displacement damage efficiency has motivated a re-evaluation of the historical empirically-derived GaAs damage response function with the purpose of highlighting needs for future analytical and experimental work. The 1-MeV neutron damage equivalence methodology used in the ASTM E-722 standard for GaAs has been re-evaluated using updated nuclear data. This yielded a higher fidelity representation of the GaAs displacement kerma and, through the use of the refined PKA recoil energy-dependent damage efficiency model, an updated 1-MeV(GaAs) displacement damage function. This re-evaluation included use of the Norgett-Robinson-Torrens (NRT) model for an updated threshold treatment, rather than the sharp-threshold Kinchin-Pease model used in the current ASTM standard. The underlying nuclear data evaluations have been updated to use the ENDF/VIII.0 {sup 75}As and TENDL-2019 {sup 71}Ga/{sup 69}Ga evaluations. The displacement kerma and 1-MeV-equivalent damage responses were calculated using a modified NJOY-2016 code which allowed for refinements in some of the damage models. This paper shows that an updated displacement damage function, based upon the latest nuclear data, is consistent with the experimental data used to develop the current ASTM E-722 GaAs standard. Using a double ratio approach to compare the available experimental data with the calculated response, the average legacy double ratio was found to be 0.97 ± 0.05 and the average updated double ratio was found to be 0.94 ± 0.05. (authors)

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Coupled effects of future rainfall and land use on urban stormwater drainage system in Tampa, Florida (USA)

Future rainfall and land use are two important factors for flood management since they both directly and indirectly affect the functionality and performance of urban stormwater drainage infrastructures. Although some studies have already examined the coupled effects of future rainfall and land use conditions, they have not concluded how such effects on both surface runoff and flood areas would change with regional surface elevation variation and infrastructure conditions. This paper analyzed the coupled effects of future rainfall and land use on urban drainage systems in terms of surface runoff quantity and flood area changes using EPA SWMM. Future downscaled and bias-corrected precipitation projections for 2040–2060 and 2080–2099 from “Downscaled CMIP3 and CMIP5 Climate and Hydrology Projections” Archive and future land use for 2050 s and 2090 s from EPA ICLUS project were used for the City of Tampa in Florida (USA). It was shown that potential runoff volume and flood area changes ranged from –40% to 160%, and –40% to 400% due to rainfall change, while potential changes induced by land use change ranged from 0% to 3.5%, and 0% to 18% respectively. Additionally, this study examined the coupled effects of future rainfall and land use changes on flood area variations, considering the capacity of drainage infrastructure and elevation variation of study site. Results showed that flood area variations are not solely influenced by runoff quantity changes due to the two external drivers, but also by other factors. Specifically, in low-relief areas with inadequate drainage infrastructure and less elevation variation, these two drivers have no additive effects on the percentage of flood area changes. In contrast, in areas with adequate drainage infrastructure and greater surface elevation variation, there are additive effects from rainfall and land use changes on flood area expansions. These findings have important implications for stakeholders involved in city planning and flooding control, particularly for urban areas facing future precipitation and urbanization challenges.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Dynamic land use implications of rapidly expanding and evolving wind power deployment

Abstract The expansion of wind power poses distinct and varied geographic challenges to a sustainable energy transition. However, current knowledge of its land use impacts and synergies is limited by reliance on static characterizations that overlook the role of turbine technology and plant design in mediating interactions with the environment. Here, we investigate how wind technology development and innovation have shaped landscape interactions with social and ecological systems within the United States and contribute to evolving land area requirements. This work assesses trends in key land use facets of wind power using a holistic set of metrics to establish an evidence base that researchers, technology designers, land use managers, and policymakers can use in envisioning how future wind-intensive energy systems may be jointly optimized for clean energy, social, and environmental objectives. Since 2000, we find dynamic land occupancy patterns and regional trends that are driven by advancing technology and geographic factors. Though most historical U.S. wind deployment has been confined to the temperate grassland biome in the nation’s interior, regional expansion has implicated diverse land use and cover types. A large percentage of the typical wind plant footprint (∼96% to > 99%) is not directly impacted by permanent physical infrastructure, allowing for multiple uses in the spaces between turbines. Surprisingly, turbines are commonly close to built structures. Moreover, rangeland and cropland have supported 93.4% of deployment, highlighting potential synergies with agricultural lands. Despite broadly decreasing capacity densities, offsetting technology improvements have stabilized power densities. Land use intensity, defined as the ratio of direct land usage to lifetime power generation of wind facilities, has also trended downwards. Although continued deployment on disturbed lands, and in close proximity to existing wind facilities and other infrastructure, could minimize the extent of impacts, ambitious decarbonization trajectories may predispose particular biomes to cumulative effects and risks from regional wind power saturation. Increased land-use and sustainability feedback in technology and plant design will be critical to sustainable management of wind power.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Applications of Remote Sensing for Land Use Planning Scenarios with Suitability Analysis

In regions undergoing rapid urbanization, such as West Africa, land use planning (LUP) is vital to accommodate growing population and manage natural resources. Suitability analysis modeling is a widely used tool in LUP to determine the extent to which a land area is suitable for a designated purpose, but there is a gap in the integration of remote sensing time series data into land use decisions. The goal of this study was to incorporate remote sensing time series information with suitability analyses to inform LUP decisions in urban areas. In the study area of Kumasi, Ghana, land cover trends and land surface temperature (LST) from 2000 to 2019 were used to understand climate change trends. Suitability analyses determined the fitness of land areas for predetermined uses. These background processes informed a genetic algorithm to project plausible futures for three land use scenarios. One scenario represented current land use planning practices for addressing population growth, another scenario prioritized minimizing climate change impacts while also accommodating population growth, and the final scenario focused on both of these climate and population goals in addition to high density urban development. Each of these scenarios was successful in achieving population accommodation and respective climate change mitigation goals. The results for these scenarios provide insight into plausible land use distributions in 2050 based on different planning approaches. The genetic algorithm was able to effectively develop results for each scenario through the integration of remotely sensed trends and suitability models, providing a novel approach to land use decision-making.

remote sensing time series↗