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DOE OSTI2021

A New Modeling Framework for Geothermal Operational Optimization with Machine Learning (GOOML)

Geothermal power plants are excellent resources for providing low carbon electricity generation with high reliability. However, many geothermal power plants could realize significant improvements in operational efficiency from the application of improved modeling software. Increased integration of digital twins into geothermal operations will not only enable engineers to better understand the complex interplay of components in larger systems but will also enable enhanced exploration of the operational space with the recent advances in artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) tools. Such innovations in geothermal operational analysis have been deterred by several challenges, most notably, the challenge in applying idealized thermodynamic models to imperfect as-built systems with constant degradation of nominal performance. This paper presents GOOML: a new framework for Geothermal Operational Optimization with Machine Learning. By taking a hybrid data-driven thermodynamics approach, GOOML is able to accurately model the real-world performance characteristics of as-built geothermal systems. Further, GOOML can be readily integrated into the larger AI and ML ecosystem for true state-of-the-art optimization. This modeling framework has already been applied to several geothermal power plants and has provided reasonably accurate results in all cases. Therefore, we expect that the GOOML framework can be applied to any geothermal power plant around the world.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Applying Particle Swarm Optimization and Extended Kalman Filtering to Model Kaplan Generation Dynamics for Hydropower Systems

Variable renewable generation is increasing the need for hydropower plants to provide fast and flexible grid support, which places new demands on plant-level dynamic models used for monitoring, control, and operational decision-making. This need is especially important for hydroelectric systems, where turbine and generator dynamics are strongly coupled, nonlinear, and time-varying, making accurate real-time representation difficult. To address this problem, this paper develops a digital twin (DT) framework for a synchronous generator–Kaplan turbine system using an explicit separation of slow turbine dynamics and fast generator dynamics. The turbine subsystem is represented by a six-coefficient model, whose parameters are identified offline using particle swarm optimization, while the generator subsystem is updated online through an extended Kalman filter for real-time state and parameter estimation. These models are integrated within a closed-loop simulation that includes a proportional–integral–derivative–double-derivative governor and excitation system, allowing the DT to track plant behavior under realistic operating conditions. Unlike prior studies that treat turbine and generator modeling separately or rely mainly on simulated inputs, the proposed framework is validated using real operational data from a hydropower plant. Results show that the DT reproduces terminal voltage, active power, and reactive power with a normalized root mean square error of approximately 5%. This hybrid offline–online formulation constitutes the main contribution of the work, providing an adaptive and practically deployable DT for hydropower systems with direct relevance to control improvement, performance monitoring, and grid-support applications under high renewable penetration.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty-Guided Prediction Horizon of Phase-Resolved Ocean Wave Forecasting Under Data Sparsity: Experimental and Numerical Evaluation

Accurate short-term wave forecasting is critical for the safe and efficient operation of marine structures that rely on real-time, phase-resolved ocean wave information for control and monitoring purposes (e.g., digital twins). These systems often depend on environmental sensors (e.g., waverider buoys, wave-sensing LIDAR). Challenges arise when upstream sensor data are missing, sparse, or phase-shifted due to drift. This study investigates the performance of two machine learning models, time-series dense encoder (TiDE) and long short-term memory (LSTM), for forecasting phase-resolved ocean surface elevations under varying degrees of data degradation. We introduce the τ-trimming algorithm, which adapts the prediction horizon based on uncertainty thresholds derived from historical forecasts. Numerical wave tank (NWT) and wave basin experiments are used to benchmark model performance under short- and long-term data masking, spatially coarse sensor grids, and upstream phase shifts. Results show under a 50% probability of upstream data loss, the τ-trimmed TiDE model achieves a 46% reduction in error at the most upstream target, compared to 22% for LSTM. Furthermore, phase misalignment in upstream data introduces a near-linear increase in forecast error. Under moderate model settings, a ±3 s misalignment increases the mean absolute error by approximately 0.5 m, while the same error is accumulated at ±4 s using the more conservative approach. These findings inform the design of resilient, uncertainty-aware wave forecasting systems suited for realistic offshore sensing environments.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

In-Situ Calibrated Modeling of Residual Stresses Induced in Machining under Various Cooling and Lubricating Environments

Although many functional characteristics, such as fatigue life and damage resistance depend on residual stresses, there are currently no industrially viable ‘Digital Process Twin’ models (DPTs) capable of efficiently and quickly predicting machining-induced stresses. By leveraging advances in ultra-high-speed in-situ experimental characterization of machining and finishing processes under plane strain (orthogonal/2D) conditions, we have developed a set of physics-based semi-analytical models to predict residual stress evolution in light of the extreme gradients of stress, strain and temperature, which are unique to these thermo-mechanical processes. Initial validation trials of this novel paradigm were carried out in Ti-6Al4V and AISI 4340 alloy steel. A variety dry, cryogenically cooled and oil lubricated conditions were evaluated to determine the model’s ability to capture the tribological changes induced due to lubrication and cooling. The preliminarily calibrated and validated model exhibited an average correlation of better than 20% between the predicted stresses and experimental data, with calculation times of less than a second. Based on such fast-acting DPTs, the authors envision future capabilities in pro-active surface engineering of advanced structural components (e.g., turbine blades).

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Added value of site load measurements in probabilistic lifetime extension: a Lillgrund case study

Site-specific fatigue estimation is an essential part of wind turbine lifetime extension, with various methods depending on data availability. The present study compares probabilistic lifetime extension assessment results for rotor blades with and without load measurements. It also addresses two key questions in such assessments: the applicability of the Frandsen model for estimating waked turbulence under complex and mixed wake conditions and the extrapolation of mid-term data over longer time periods. The case study wind turbine is SWT-2.3-93, located at the edge of the Lillgrund wind farm, situated in the Øresund Strait between Denmark and Sweden. The turbine is extensively instrumented, with 5 years of data available from its supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) system. Although the Frandsen turbulence estimates deviate in a different manner from measurements at below- and above-rated mean wind speeds, the model remains a conservative approach for fatigue load prediction and reliability. In the current case study, the site-specific assessment using strain gauge measurements yields a 33 % higher annual fatigue reliability index after 35 years compared to a scenario based on the Frandsen estimation combined with ambient environmental data and a generic aeroelastic model. The results also demonstrate that the sensitivity of fatigue reliability to load uncertainty is negligible when load measurements are used directly but relatively high when relying on the Frandsen model in combination with a generic aeroelastic model. Overall, the high variability of the lifetime extension in different scenarios of data availability and accuracy shows the importance and added value of high-quality measurements combined with wind-farm-level SCADA and a model updated in real time (digital twins).

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Networked HIL Simulation System for Modeling Large-scale Power Systems

This paper presents a network hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) simulation system for modeling large-scale power systems. Researchers have developed many HIL test systems for power systems in recent years. Those test systems can model both microsecond-level dynamic responses of power electronic systems and millisecond-level transients of transmission and distribution grids. By integrating individual HIL test systems into a network of HIL test systems, we can create large-scale power grid digital twins with flexible structures at required modeling resolution that fits for a wide range of system operating conditions. This will not only significantly reduce the need for field tests when developing new technologies but also greatly shorten the model development cycle. In this paper, we present a networked OPAL-RT based HIL test system for developing transmission-distribution coordinative Volt-VAR regulation technologies as an example to illustrate system setups, communication requirements among different HIL test systems, and connection mechanisms. Impacts of communication delays, information exchange cycles, and computing delays are illustrated. Simulation results show that the performance of a networked HIL test system is satisfactory.

digital twin, distribution system, co-simulation, ↗

DOE OSTI2023

Transient Efficiency, Flexibility, and Reliability Optimization of Coal-Fired Power Plants - Final Program Review

This program developed an advanced model-based monitoring and model-predictive control algorithms for a coal fired power plant (CFPP), and deployed these algorithms in a real-time platform to demonstrate performance benefits for transient flexibility and plant operation efficiency. More specifically, the objectives were successfully achieved through a combination of (i) developing a high-fidelity transient plant model in Apros, which was used as a high-fidelity plant simulation between $100-50\% TMCR$ where TMCR denotes the turbine maximum continuous rating, i.e., baseload, (ii) developing a very fast physics-based reduced-order model (ROM) of the plant, which ran more than $100\times$ faster than real-time, enabling its use as real-time embedded model for model-based estimation (MBE) and model predictive control (MPC) (iii) implementing a real-time MBE based on ROM using a robust unscented Kalman filter (UKF) to continuously tune the ROM to match the measurements from high-fidelity Apros plant model despite significant plant-model mismatch, and thus, obtain a Digital Twin of the plant (iv) designing and implementing a real-time MPC with dual objectives of transient plant load tracking with high ramp rates and minimizing coal consumption, i.e., improving plant efficiency in the baseload-partload operation range of $100-50\% TMCR$. Each key element above was developed and tested individually, and has been reported in corresponding Topical Reports. Finally, all the individual elements were integrated in an overall closed-loop system, that was successfully tested in desktop Simulink test harness simulations with ROM or high-fidelity model as the plant. Thereafter, the Simulink implementation was used to auto-generate C-code and deploy as real-time Docker microservice containers in Linux, and validate that they can run in real-time in the hardware-in-the loop (HIL) setup and produce the same results as in Simulink. The results of the integrated simulation tests in Simulink as well as the real-time HIL deployment are documented in this final report, showing good load tracking for load ramps at $3-4\%/min$ ramp rates, and achieving up to $5.5\%$ reduction in coal relative to baseline operation at $50\% TMCR$ load. The desktop and HIL simulations show successful performance of the overall model based estimation and control solution and achieve the key objectives of the program for flexible, efficient and reliable operation of sub-critical coal fired power plants.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Machine-Learning-aided Approach for Predicting the Thermal Expansion Behaviors in Advanced Test Reactor Capsules (NURETH-20 full paper)

Instrumented experiments at test reactors are essential to deploying new advanced reactor systems. Designing new experiments and generating data on specific conditions require both time and cost investment. A high-fidelity model of the experiment environment can be created using finite element analysis software to support the actual experiments, but computation time is still a concern in applying outcomes to real-time usage (e.g., a digital twin). This research proposes a machine-learning-aided approach to temperature and displacement predictions, based on the thickness of the outer gas gap on the experimental capsule used for the in-pile demonstration of a novel thermal conductivity probe in the Advanced Test Reactor. The capsule consisted of U10Zr fuel, a rodlet, sodium, and inner and outer capsules. There were gas gaps between the fuel and rodlet and between the inner and outer capsule. The learning data consisted of an experimental capsule’s radial distributions of temperature and displacement, as obtained from Abaqus and the physical features. For the first step, temperature was predicted using three positional parameters. Then the displacement was predicted using six different positional parameters. Each physical feature was normalized to be both nondimensional and standardized. The temperature and displacement predictions showed good agreement in all cases involving interpolation and extrapolation. Also, data similarity enhancement increased the similarity between training and target data increasing the predictive accuracy of machine-learning models. In some cases of extrapolation, the accuracy of the machine-learning model showed limited performance, but still data similarity enhancement improved the accuracy.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2025

BCTC LDRD - 2023 Slides for HQ

This presentation presents an overview of the LDRD project developing a digital twin for the solvent extraction laboratory at Idaho National Lab.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Artificial Intelligence and Digital Engineering as Enablers for System Engineering in the Energy Sector

Systems engineering is of utmost importance for the success of high-cost, high-complexity megaprojects, which are common in the energy sector. However, the traditional document-centric systems engineering approach tends to be labor-intensive and time-consuming, which has inhibited its full adoption despite proven metrics on its return on investment. However, with the modern approach of digital engineering and technological advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) technologies, the barriers to systems engineering adoption can finally be broken. This paper goes through the systems engineering V-model for lifecycle management and assesses the current state of implementation of digital engineering (especially, mod-el-based systems engineering, digital twins, and digital threads) and AI for each step. It was observed that a combination of digital engineering and AI is being used across different industries to accelerate and optimize systems engineering processes such as concept development, requirements management, architecture definition, system development, verification and validation, operations, and maintenance. Specifically in the energy sector, AI-augmented digital engineering has shown initial potential in accelerated development and deployment, performance optimization, anomaly detection, predictive maintenance, and configuration management. However, challenges remain in integrating DE and AI into an end-to-end system lifecycle management ecosystem safely and reliably. Addressing these challenges and continuously developing impactful tools will enable fast, efficient, and high-frequency deployment of power generation capabilities to keep up with the world’s energy demands and build energy security.

42 - ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Artificial Intelligence and Digital Engineering as Enablers for Systems Engineering in the Energy Sector

42 - ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Irradiation-Induced Extremes Create Hierarchical Face-/Body-Centered-Cubic Phases in Nanostructured High Entropy Alloys

A nanoscale hierarchical dual-phase structure is reported to form in a nanocrystalline NiFeCoCrCu high-entropy-alloy (HEA) film via ion irradiation. Under the extreme energy deposition and consequent thermal energy dissipation induced by energetic particles, a fundamentally new phenomenon is revealed, in which the original single-phase face-centered-cubic (FCC) structure partially transforms into alternating nanometer layers of a body-centered-cubic (BCC) structure. The orientation relationship follows the Nishiyama–Wasser-man relationship, that is, (011) BCC || (1¯1¯1) FCC and [100] BCC || [11¯0] FCC . Simulation results indicate that Cr, as a BCC stabilizing element, exhibits a tendency to segregate to the stacking faults (SFs). Furthermore, the high densities of SFs and twin boundaries in each nanocrystalline grain serve to accelerate the nucleation and growth of the BCC phase during irradiation. By adjusting the irradiation parameters, desired thicknesses of the FCC and BCC phases in the laminates can be achieved. Finally, this work demonstrates the controlled formation of an attractive dual-phase nanolaminate structure under ion irradiation and provides a strategy for designing new derivate structures of HEAs.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Giant Nonlinear Optical Response via Coherent Stacking of In-Plane Ferroelectric Layers

Thin ferroelectric materials hold great promise for compact nonvolatile memory and nonlinear optical and optoelectronic devices. Herein, an ultrathin in-plane ferroelectric material that exhibits a giant nonlinear optical effect, group-IV monochalcogenide SnSe, is reported. Nanometer-scale ferroelectric domains with ≈90°/270° twin boundaries or ≈180° domain walls are revealed in physical-vapor-deposited SnSe by lateral piezoresponse force microscopy. Atomic structure characterization reveals both parallel and antiparallel stacking of neighboring van der Waals ferroelectric layers, leading to ferroelectric or antiferroelectric ordering. Ferroelectric domains exhibit giant nonlinear optical activity due to coherent enhancement of second-harmonic fields and the as-resulted second-harmonic generation was observed to be 100 times more intense than monolayer WS 2 . This work demonstrates in-plane ferroelectric ordering and giant nonlinear optical activity in SnSe, which paves the way for applications in on-chip nonlinear optical components and nonvolatile memory devices.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Synthesis of 2H/ fcc -Heterophase AuCu Nanostructures for Highly Efficient Electrochemical CO 2 Reduction at Industrial Current Densities

Structural engineering of nanomaterials offers a promising way for developing high-performance catalysts toward catalysis. However, the delicate modulation of thermodynamically unfavorable nanostructures with unconventional phases still remains a challenge. Here, in this study, the synthesis of hierarchical AuCu nanostructures is reported with hexagonal close-packed (2H-type)/face-centered cubic (fcc) heterophase, high-index facets, planar defects (e.g., stacking faults, twin boundaries, and grain boundaries), and tunable Cu content. The obtained 2H/fcc Au 99 Cu 1 hierarchical nanosheets exhibit excellent performance for the electrocatalytic CO 2 reduction to produce CO, outperforming the 2H/fcc Au 91 Cu 9 and fcc Au 99 Cu 1 . The experimental results, especially those obtained by in-situ differential electrochemical mass spectroscopy and attenuated total reflection Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy, suggest that the enhanced catalytic performance of 2H/fcc Au 99 Cu 1 arises from the unconventional 2H/fcc heterophase, high-index facets, planar defects, and appropriate alloying of Cu. Impressively, the 2H/fcc Au 99 Cu 1 shows CO Faradaic efficiencies of 96.6% and 92.6% at industrial current densities of 300 and 500 mA cm -2 , respectively, as well as good durability, placing it among the best CO 2 reduction electrocatalysts for CO production. The atomically structural regulation based on phase engineering of nanomaterials (PEN) provides an avenue for the rational design and preparation of high-performance electrocatalysts for various catalytic applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Circular Reprocessing of Thermoset Polyurethane Foams

Thermoset polyurethane (PU) foams are widely used in industrial applications, but they cannot be recycled by conventional melt reprocessing because of their cross-linked structures. The introduction of carbamate exchange catalysts converts thermoset PU into covalent adaptable networks (CANs), which are amenable to reprocessing at elevated temperatures. However, this approach has produced solid PU films, which have fewer uses and lower commercial demand. In this work, simultaneous reprocessing and refoaming of thermoset PU foams is demonstrated by leveraging the melt-processability of PU CANs and allowing cell growth by gas generation in a twin-screw extruder. The optimal operating temperature of the refoaming process is determined through chemical, thermal, and structural analysis of PU foam extrudates. The foam-to-foam extrusion process produces controllable, continuous, and uniform foam structures, as characterized by cell diameter and cell number density. Low-density PU foams are obtained through a process simulating injection molding. The compression properties of reprocessed PU foam are compared with as-synthesized PU foam to demonstrate efficacy of the refoaming processes. These results demonstrate that PU foams can be prepared through recycling while maintaining microstructural and chemical integrity. In the future, this strategy may be applied to thermoset PU foams of various chemical compositions and shows promise for scalability.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Hole‐Carrier‐Dominant Transport in 2D Single‐Crystal Copper

Abstract In 2D noble metals like copper, the carrier scattering at grain boundaries has obscured the intrinsic nature of electronic transport. However, it is demonstrated that the intrinsic nature of transport by hole carriers in 2D copper can be revealed by growing thin films without grain boundaries. As even a slight deviation from the twin boundary is perceived as grain boundaries by electrons, it is only through the thorough elimination of grain boundaries that the hidden hole‐like attribute of 2D single‐crystal copper can be unmasked. Two types of Fermi surfaces, a large hexagonal Fermi surface centered at the zone center and the triangular Fermi surface around the zone corner, tightly matching to the calculated Fermi surface topology, confirmed by angle‐resolved photoemission spectroscopy (ARPES) measurements and vivid nonlinear Hall effects of the 2D single‐crystal copper account for the presence of hole carriers experimentally. This breakthrough suggests the potential to manipulate the majority carrier polarity in metals by means of grain boundary engineering in a 2D geometry.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Decoding THz‐Driven Dynamic Fingerprints of Ferroelectric Nanotwin Networks

Ultrafast polarization dynamics in ferroelectrics are of considerable interest for high-speed tunable dielectrics and electro-optics. Extended domain wall networks formed in ferroelectric twin nanodomains can support collective dynamics in the terahertz regime but require techniques that track polarization and strain evolution driven by ultrafast stimulus. Here, we use multi-modal probing of THz-pulse-driven excitations in PbTiO 3 /SrTiO 3 superlattices by combining X-ray free electron laser measurements that directly tracks lattice changes, with optical second harmonic generation that tracks the electronic potential coupled with the lattice potential. Dynamical phase-field modeling enables fingerprinting of these collective modes as superpositions of domain “breathing” through wall oscillations and polarization “rotations” with still walls. Ultrafast domain wall motion at 0.1–0.5 THz is observed at practical fields of 100 kV/cm with wall velocities of >4000 m/s, approaching typical speed of sound in PbTiO 3 . A unique “charging” mode is discovered that can electrically charge and discharge domain walls on ∼4 ps time scale thus dynamically tuning wall conductivity. Integrated experimental and theoretical fingerprinting of the dynamical landscape presented here enables ultrafast control of ferroics for high-speed microelectronics and optical applications.

THz dynamics↗

DOE OSTI2024

The Role of Interfacial Interactions and Oxygen Vacancies in Tuning Magnetic Anisotropy in LaCrO 3 /LaMnO 3 Heterostructures

The interplay of lattice, electronic, and spin degrees of freedom at epitaxial complex oxide interfaces provides a route to tune their magnetic ground states. Unraveling the competing contributions is critical for tuning their functional properties. The relationship between magnetic ordering and magnetic anisotropy and the lattice symmetry, oxygen content, and film thickness in compressively strained LaMnO 3 (LMO)/LaCrO 3 (LCO) superlattices is investigated. Mn–O–Cr antiferromagnetic superexchange interactions across the heterointerface result in a net ferrimagnetic magnetic structure. Bulk magnetometry measurements reveal isotropic in-plane magnetism for as-grown oxygen-deficient thin samples due to equal fractions of orthorhombic a+a-c-, and a-a+c- twin domains. As the superlattice thickness is increased, in-plane magnetic anisotropy emerges as the fraction of the a+a-c- domain increases. On annealing in oxygen, the suppression of oxygen vacancies results in a contraction of the lattice volume, and an orthorhombic to rhombohedral transition leads to isotropic magnetism independent of the film thickness. The complex interactions are investigated using high-resolution synchrotron diffraction and X-ray absorption spectroscopy. These results highlight the role of the evolution of structural domains with film thickness, interfacial spin interactions, and oxygen-vacancy-induced structural phase transitions in tuning the magnetic properties of complex oxide heterostructures.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗