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At least 829 records · Page 46

Relationship between tropical heating and subtropical westerly maxima in the Southern Hemisphere during SOP-1, FGGE

FGGE Level III-b analyses, produced by the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres, NASA, are used to investigate the relationship between tropical heating and subtropical westerly maxima in the Southern Hemisphere during SOP-1 (January 5 - March 4, 1979). The mean state of two 15-day periods is examined, as well as day-to-day variations for the entire 59-day period. In Period 1 (January 6-20), the central South Pacific was extremely active convectively, while in Period 2 (February 3-17), convective activity over the western Indian Ocean was enhanced. Episodes of strong outflow in the tropics, as measured by the upper tropospheric velocity potential, were found to be well correlated with the strengthening and propagation of westerly wind maxima in the subtropics. The average location of the westerly maximum over the South Pacific and Indian oceans was about 16 deg latitudes south, and slightly east, of its corresponding heat source. For a cyclone case study which is presented, however, this distance was considerably less. The response time between the upper level tropical outflow and subtropical westerly enhancement appears to be less than 12 hours; however, an exact temporal scale was difficult to identify.

Hurrel, James W.↗

Synoptic Traveling Weather Systems on Mars: Effects of Radiatively-Active Water Ice Clouds

Atmospheric aerosols on Mars are critical in determining the nature of its thermal structure, its large-scale circulation, and hence the overall climate of the planet. We conduct multi-annual simulations with the latest version of the NASA Ames Mars global climate model (GCM), gcm2.3+, that includes a modernized radiative-transfer package and complex water-ice cloud microphysics package which permit radiative effects and interactions of suspended atmospheric aerosols (e.g., water ice clouds, water vapor, dust, and mutual interactions) to influence the net diabatic heating. Results indicate that radiatively active water ice clouds profoundly affect the seasonal and annual mean climate. The mean thermal structure and balanced circulation patterns are strongly modified near the surface and aloft. Warming of the subtropical atmosphere at altitude and cooling of the high latitude atmosphere at low levels takes place, which increases the mean pole-to-equator temperature contrast (i.e., "baroclinicity"). With radiatively active water ice clouds (RAC) compared to radiatively inert water ice clouds (nonRAC), significant changes in the intensity of the mean state and forced stationary Rossby modes occur, both of which affect the vigor and intensity of traveling, synoptic period weather systems. Such weather systems not only act as key agents in the transport of heat and momentum beyond the extent of the Hadley circulation, but also the transport of trace species such as water vapor, water ice-clouds, dust and others. The northern hemisphere (NH) forced Rossby waves and resultant wave train are augmented in the RAC case: the modes are more intense and the wave train is shifted equatorward. Significant changes also occur within the subtropics and tropics. The Rossby wave train sets up, combined with the traveling synoptic period weather systems (i.e., cyclones and anticyclones), the geographic extent of storm zones (or storm tracks) within the NH. A variety of circulation features will be presented which indicate contrasts between the RAC and nonRAC cases, and which highlight key effects radiatively-active clouds have on physical and dynamical processes active in the current climate of Mars.

Atmospheric aerosols↗

Synoptic Traveling Weather Systems on Mars: Effects of Radiatively-Active Water Ice Clouds

Atmospheric aerosols on Mars are critical in determining the nature of its thermal structure, its large-scale circulation, and hence the overall climate of the planet. We conduct multi-annual simulations with the latest version of the NASA Ames Mars global climate model (GCM), gcm2.3+, that includes a modernized radiative-transfer package and complex water-ice cloud microphysics package which permit radiative effects and interactions of suspended atmospheric aerosols (e.g., water ice clouds, water vapor, dust, and mutual interactions) to influence the net diabatic heating. Results indicate that radiatively active water ice clouds profoundly affect the seasonal and annual mean climate. The mean thermal structure and balanced circulation patterns are strongly modified near the surface and aloft. Warming of the subtropical atmosphere at altitude and cooling of the high latitude atmosphere at low levels takes place, which increases the mean pole-to-equator temperature contrast (i.e., "baroclinicity"). With radiatively active water ice clouds (RAC) compared to radiatively inert water ice clouds (nonRAC), significant changes in the intensity of the mean state and forced stationary Rossby modes occur, both of which affect the vigor and intensity of traveling, synoptic period weather systems.Such weather systems not only act as key agents in the transport of heat and momentum beyond the extent of the Hadley circulation, but also the transport of trace species such as water vapor, water ice-clouds, dust and others. The northern hemisphere (NH) forced Rossby waves and resultant wave train are augmented in the RAC case: the modes are more intense and the wave train is shifted equatorward. Significant changes also occur within the subtropics and tropics. The Rossby wave train sets up, combined with the traveling synoptic period weather systems (i.e., cyclones and anticyclones), the geographic extent of storm zones (or storm tracks) within the NH. A variety of circulation features will be presented which indicate contrasts between the RAC and nonRAC cases, and which highlight key effects radiatively-active clouds have on physical and dynamical processes active in the current climate of Mars.

GCM-global climate model↗

Tracking the Rates and Mechanisms of Canopy Damage and Recovery Following Hurricane Maria Using Multitemporal Lidar Data

Hurricane Maria, a Category 4 storm, snapped and uprooted canopy trees, removed large branches, and defoliated vegetation across Puerto Rico. The magnitude of forest damages and the rates and mechanisms of forest recovery following Maria provide important benchmarks for understanding the ecology of extreme events. We used airborne Lidar data acquired before (2017) and after Maria (2018, 2020) to quantify landscape-scale changes in forest structure along a 439-ha elevational gradient (100–800 m) in the Luquillo Experimental Forest. Damages from Maria were widespread, with 73% of the study area losing ≥ 1 m in canopy height (mean = −7.1 m). Taller forests at lower elevations suffered more damage than shorter forests above 600 m. Yet only 13.5% of the study area had canopy heights ≤ 2 m in 2018, a typical threshold for forest gaps, highlighting the importance of damaged trees and advanced regeneration on post-storm forest structure. Heterogeneous patterns of regrowth and recruitment yielded shorter and more open forests by 2020. Nearly 45% of forests experienced initial height loss > 1 m (2017–2018) followed by rapid height gain > 1 m (2018–2020), whereas 21.6% of forests with initial height losses showed little or no height gain, and 17.8% of forests exhibited no height changes larger than ± 1 m in either period. Canopy layers < 10 m tall accounted for most increases in canopy height and fractional cover between 2018 and 2020, with gains split evenly between height growth and lateral crown expansion by surviving individuals. These findings benchmark rates of gap formation, crown expansion, and canopy closure following hurricane damage and highlight the diversity of ecosystem impacts from heterogeneous spatial patterns and vertical stratification of forest regrowth following a major disturbance event.

forest structure↗

Tracking the Rates and Mechanisms of Canopy Damage and Recovery Following Hurricane Maria Using Multitemporal Lidar Data

Hurricane Maria, a Category 4 storm, snapped and uprooted canopy trees, removed large branches, and defoliated vegetation across Puerto Rico. The magnitude of forest damages and the rates and mechanisms of forest recovery following Maria provide important benchmarks for understanding the ecology of extreme events. We used airborne Lidar data acquired before (2017) and after Maria (2018, 2020) to quantify landscape-scale changes in forest structure along a 439-ha elevational gradient (100–800 m) in the Luquillo Experimental Forest. Damages from Maria were widespread, with 73% of the study area losing ≥ 1 m in canopy height (mean = −7.1 m). Taller forests at lower elevations suffered more damage than shorter forests above 600 m. Yet only 13.5% of the study area had canopy heights ≤ 2 m in 2018, a typical threshold for forest gaps, highlighting the importance of damaged trees and advanced regeneration on post-storm forest structure. Heterogeneous patterns of regrowth and recruitment yielded shorter and more open forests by 2020. Nearly 45% of forests experienced initial height loss > 1 m (2017–2018) followed by rapid height gain > 1 m (2018–2020), whereas 21.6% of forests with initial height losses showed little or no height gain, and 17.8% of forests exhibited no height changes larger than ± 1 m in either period. Canopy layers < 10 m tall accounted for most increases in canopy height and fractional cover between 2018 and 2020, with gains split evenly between height growth and lateral crown expansion by surviving individuals. These findings benchmark rates of gap formation, crown expansion, and canopy closure following hurricane damage and highlight the diversity of ecosystem impacts from heterogeneous spatial patterns and vertical stratification of forest regrowth following a major disturbance event.

forest structure↗

An Objective Classification of Saturn Cloud Features from Cassini ISS Images

A k -means clustering algorithm is applied to Cassini Imaging Science Subsystem continuum and methane band images of Saturn's northern hemisphere to objectively classify regional albedo features and aid in their dynamical interpretation. The procedure is based on a technique applied previously to visible- infrared images of Earth. It provides a new perspective on giant planet cloud morphology and its relationship to the dynamics and a meteorological context for the analysis of other types of simultaneous Saturn observations. The method identifies 6 clusters that exhibit distinct morphology, vertical structure, and preferred latitudes of occurrence. These correspond to areas dominated by deep convective cells; low contrast areas, some including thinner and thicker clouds possibly associated with baroclinic instability; regions with possible isolated thin cirrus clouds; darker areas due to thinner low level clouds or clearer skies due to downwelling, or due to absorbing particles; and fields of relatively shallow cumulus clouds. The spatial associations among these cloud types suggest that dynamically, there are three distinct types of latitude bands on Saturn: deep convectively disturbed latitudes in cyclonic shear regions poleward of the eastward jets; convectively suppressed regions near and surrounding the westward jets; and baro-clinically unstable latitudes near eastward jet cores and in the anti-cyclonic regions equatorward of them. These are roughly analogous to some of the features of Earth's tropics, subtropics, and midlatitudes, respectively. This classification may be more useful for dynamics purposes than the traditional belt-zone partitioning. Temporal variations of feature contrast and cluster occurrence suggest that the upper tropospheric haze in the northern hemisphere may have thickened by 2014. The results suggest that routine use of clustering may be a worthwhile complement to many different types of planetary atmospheric data analysis.

atmosphere dynamics↗

Synoptic Traveling Weather Systems on Mars: Effects of Radiatively-Active Water Ice Clouds

Atmospheric aerosols on Mars are critical in determining the nature of its thermal structure, its large-scale circulation, and hence the overall climate of the planet. We conduct multi-annual simulations with the latest version of the NASA Ames Mars global climate model (GCM), gcm2.3+, that includes a modernized radiative-transfer package and complex water-ice cloud microphysics package which permit radiative effects and interactions of suspended atmospheric aerosols (e.g., water ice clouds, water vapor, dust, and mutual interactions) to influence the net diabatic heating. Results indicate that radiatively active water ice clouds profoundly affect the seasonal and annual mean climate. The mean thermal structure and balanced circulation patterns are strongly modified near the surface and aloft. Warming of the subtropical atmosphere at altitude and cooling of the high latitude atmosphere at low levels takes place, which increases the mean pole-to-equator temperature contrast (i.e., "baroclinicity"). With radiatively active water ice clouds (RAC) compared to radiatively inert water ice clouds (nonRAC), significant changes in the intensity of the mean state and forced stationary Rossby modes occur, both of which affect the vigor and intensity of traveling, synoptic period weather systems. Such weather systems not only act as key agents in the transport of heat and momentum beyond the extent of the Hadley circulation, but also the transport of trace species such as water vapor, water ice-clouds, dust and others. The northern hemisphere (NH) forced Rossby waves and resultant wave train are augmented in the RAC case: the modes are more intense and the wave train is shifted equatorward. Significant changes also occur within the subtropics and tropics. The Rossby wave train sets up, combined with the traveling synoptic-period weather systems (i.e., cyclones and anticyclones), the geographic extent of storm zones (or storm tracks) within the NH. A variety of circulation features will be presented which indicate contrasts between the RAC and nonRAC cases, and which highlight key effects radiatively-active clouds have on physical and dynamical processes active in the current climate of Mars.

NASA Ames Mars global climate model (GCM)↗

Cloud encounter statistics in the 28.5-43.5 KFT altitude region from four years of GASP observations

The results of an analysis of cloud encounter measurements taken at aircraft flight altitudes as part of the Global Atmospheric Sampling Program are summarized. The results can be used in estimating the probability of cloud encounter and in assessing the economic feasibility of laminar flow control aircraft along particular routes. The data presented clearly show the tropical circulation and its seasonal migration; characteristics of the mid-latitude regime, such as the large-scale traveling cyclones in the winter and increased convective activity in the summer, can be isolated in the data. The cloud encounter statistics are shown to be consistent with the mid-latitude cyclone model. A model for TIC (time-in-clouds), a cloud encounter statistic, is presented for several common airline routes.

Jasperson, W. H.↗

Global Teleconnections: Atmospheric Interactions Across Scales [Slides]

This project aims at an improved understanding of non-hydrostatic dynamics in atmospheric modeling using the DOE’s next generation climate model. One aspect that we have been focusing on is baroclinic instability which is closely related to mid-latitude cyclone genesis. The other aspect that we recently developed is E3SM simulations under Radiative-Convective Equilibrium (RCE), a prototype of tropical climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Vertical and Horizontal Wind Structure Prior to and During the 1997/1998 ENSO Event

Analyses of ECMWF and satellite wind products are used to investigate low frequency fluctuations in the wind fields immediately preceding and during the 1997/1998 ENSO event. An extended EOF analysis of the horizontal and vertical wind structure that allows for the study of propagating features indicates that the dominant mode of variability established in the lower levels of the atmosphere is a convergence in the central tropical Pacific. At mid-levels, the westerlies increase with time over most of the equatorial Pacific, and there are closed cyclonic features on either side of the equator. At upper levels, the flow tends to become divergent across the equatorial Pacific, and there is a strong flow from the northwest Pacific across Indonesia that then turns to the west along the equator in the Indian Ocean. The addition of satellite data for improved surface wind estimates reveal that the Indian Ocean winds were anomalously strong during the winter preceding the initiation of the ENSO event. An analysis of the momentum convergence flux at the surface indicates a very strong anomaly 9 months prior to the ENSO event that begins in the western Indian Ocean and propagates to the east, arriving over the Pacific warm pool area coincident with the beginning of the El Nino. Changes in the near surface thermal and water vapor structure over the Indian Ocean during this period will also be discussed.

Adamec, David↗

Validation of Satellite-Based Wind Observations During PISTON

PISTON cruises provide a useful and unique suite of measurements relevant to validating satellite-based ocean wind datasets near tropical convection. In this talk, we will focus on opportunities for using PISTON observations to validate two different scatterometer datasets: (1) Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) (2) Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT).

Lang, Timothy↗

Response of Global Lightning Activity Observed by the TRMM/LIS During Warm and Cold ENSO Phases

This paper investigates the response of global lightning activity to the transition from the warm (January February March-JFM 1998) to the cold (JFM 1999) ENSO phase. The nine-year global lightning climatology for these months from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) provides the observational baseline. Flash rate density is computed on a 5.0x5.0 degree lat/lon grid within the LIS coverage area (between approx.37.5 N and S) for each three month period. The flash rate density anomalies from this climatology are examined for these months in 1998 and 1999. The observed lightning anomalies spatially match the documented general circulation features that accompany the warm and cold ENSO events. During the warm ENSO phase the dominant positive lightning anomalies are located mostly over the Western Hemisphere and more specifically over Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean and Northern Mid-Atlantic. We further investigate specifically the Northern Mid-Atlantic related anomaly features since these show strong relation to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Furthermore these observed anomaly patterns show strong spatial agreement with anomalous upper level (200 mb) cold core cyclonic circulations. Positive sea surface temperature anomalies during the warm ENSO phase also affect the lightning activity, but this is mostly observed near coastal environments. Over the open tropical oceans, there is climatologically less lightning and the anomalies are less pronounced. Warm ENSO related anomalies over the Eastern Hemisphere are most prominent over the South China coast. The transition to the cold ENSO phase illustrates the detected lightning anomalies to be more pronounced over East and West Pacific. A comparison of total global lightning between warm and cold ENSO phase reveals no significant difference, although prominent regional anomalies are located over mostly oceanic environments. All three tropical "chimneys" (Maritime Continent, Central Africa, and Amazon Basin) do not show any particular response to this transition.

Chronis, Themis G.↗

Increased U.S. coastal hurricane risk under climate change

Several pathways for how climate change may influence the U.S. coastal hurricane risk have been proposed, but the physical mechanisms and possible connections between various pathways remain unclear. Here, future projections of hurricane activity (1980–2100), downscaled from multiple climate models using a synthetic hurricane model, show an enhanced hurricane frequency for the Gulf and lower East coast regions. The increase in coastal hurricane frequency is driven primarily by changes in steering flow, which can be attributed to the development of an upper-level cyclonic circulation over the western Atlantic. The latter is part of the baroclinic stationary Rossby waves forced mainly by increased diabatic heating in the eastern tropical Pacific, a robust signal across the multimodel ensemble. Last, these heating changes also play a key role in decreasing wind shear near the U.S. coast, further aggravating coastal hurricane risk enhanced by the physically connected steering flow changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Storm-DEPART (Damage Estimate Prediction and Recovery Tool)

Storm-DEPART (Damage Estimate Prediction and Restoration Tool): Each year hurricanes and tropical storms in the United States damage critical infrastructure assets, disrupt the services they provide, and cause millions to billions of dollars in economic impacts due to extended recovery times. The Storm-DEPART tool and analytical output enable more impactful data-driven decision-making capabilities and strengthen national-level disaster preparedness, response, and recovery. Storm-DEPART, built through multi-month collaboration between Entergy and INL, combines Entergy’s critical infrastructure inventory data with weather forecasts to predict damages to Electric utility’s assets due to natural disasters and the estimated recovery support needed, including time, materials, and resource allocation. In the event of an approaching hurricane, this innovative solution can assess potential damage to power generation capacity, transmission grids, distribution networks, and communications assets from wind bands, storm surge, and flooding. With more effective predictions, Entergy can more efficiently allocate resources to mitigate impacts and optimize recovery for customers. Storm-DEPART also allows Electric utilities the ability to apply a planning scenario and model expected damage to better inform infrastructure restoration needs leading to enhance system resiliency. The technology is fully transferrable to other electric utilities with the same damage estimating challenges. The INL team is working on the evolution of Storm-DEPART to include ice event damage prediction framework.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Large Scale Water Vapor Sources Relative to the October 2000 Piedmont Flood

Very intense mesoscale or synoptic-scale rainfall events can occasionally be observed in the Mediterranean region without any deep cyclone developing over the areas affected by precipitation. In these perplexing cases the synoptic situation can superficially look similar to cases in which very little precipitation occurs. These situations could possibly baffle the operational weather forecasters. In this article, the major precipitation event that affected Piedmont (Italy) between 13 and 16 October 2000 is investigated. This is one of the cases in which no intense cyclone was observed within the Mediterranean region at any time, only a moderate system was present, and yet exceptional rainfall and flooding occurred. The emphasis of this study is on the moisture origin and transport. Moisture and energy balances are computed on different space- and time-scales, revealing that precipitation exceeds evaporation over an area inclusive of Piedmont and the northwestern Mediterranean region, on a time-scale encompassing the event and about two weeks preceding it. This is suggestive of an important moisture contribution originating from outside the region. A synoptic and dynamic analysis is then performed to outline the potential mechanisms that could have contributed to the large-scale moisture transport. The central part of the work uses a quasi-isentropic water-vapor back trajectory technique. The moisture sources obtained by this technique are compared with the results of the balances and with the synoptic situation, to unveil possible dynamic mechanisms and physical processes involved. It is found that moisture sources on a variety of atmospheric scales contribute to this event. First, an important contribution is caused by the extratropical remnants of former tropical storm Leslie. The large-scale environment related to this system allows a significant amount of moisture to be carried towards Europe. This happens on a time- scale of about 5-15 days preceding the Piedmont event. Second, water-vapor intrusions from the African Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone and evaporation from the eastern Atlantic contribute on the 2-5 day time-scale. The large-scale moist dynamics appears therefore to be one important factor enabling a moderate Mediterranean cyclone to produce heavy precipitation. Finally, local evaporation from the Mediterranean, water-vapor recycling, and orographically-induced low-level convergence enhance and concentrate the moisture over the area where heavy precipitation occurs. This happens on a 12-72 hour time-scale.

Turato, Barbara↗

Lightning Enriched Global Precipitation Feature Database

The Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) has provided a wealth of insight about lightning and precipitation in the tropics. However TRMM did not provide coverage outside the tropics and sub-tropics (i.e., beyond ±38°latitude), and hence it was unable to sample the lightning activity and precipitation features over a large fraction of mid-latitude continents and oceans, including extratropical cyclone storm tracks. The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission picks up where TRMM left off in that it provides information on precipitation features in the mid-and high latitudes (up to 65°N/S). However, GPM lacks a lightning instrument that can provide additional insights into mid-latitude thunderstorm activity and distribution. Hence we integrate observations from coincident the ISS Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) and the World Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN) observations with measurements from the GPM constellation of satellites, in particular to extend the existing GPM Precipitation Feature (PF) database so its data parameters are similar to that of the TRMM PF database (i.e., precipitation + lighting). Currently, WWLLN and ISS-LIS lightning have been collocated into precipitation features defined from GPM core satellite and constellation satellites observations.

Precipitation↗

Investigating Convective Gustiness of Winds and Fluxes Using Microwave Remote Sensing

Tropical atmospheric convection is known to be associated with enhanced winds over the oceans that can drive increased rates of mass and energy transfer through turbulent latent and sensible heat fluxes. However, convection and its associated rainfall usually obscures the surface wind signals observed using passive microwave observations. Air-sea flux estimates based on the use of microwave imagers typically mask in areas of rainfall and thus are likely underrepresenting the true turbulent flux transfer. However, both monostatic and bistatic radar scatterometer systems are allowing for more detailed analysis of the convective near-surface environment. While rain still impact C-band scatterometer observations, the L-band observables from the Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) are providing improved observing capabilities in all-weather conditions. In this study, we will present ongoing research to leverage CYGNSS observations in addition to other scatterometer, in situ, and satellite-based precipitation information to provide an improved characterization of surface wind enhancement within tropical oceanic convection. The results will specifically highlight current capabilities and limitations to assess convective wind enhancement and wind gustiness and their relationship to the surface turbulent fluxes of heat and water.

J Brent Roberts↗

Interpretation of the Jupiter Red Spot, 1

With the aid of 8900 micron CH4 filter photographs it is shown that the Red Spot is normally the highest cloud feature in the Jovian atmosphere, located squarely on the South Tropical Zone at 22 deg. S. The Red Spot is a rising column, obviously having its own energy source; it spreads outward at the top level, in anticyclonic rotation. It is concluded that the large and persistent Jovian cloud masses, of which the Red Spot is the largest, are major organized storm arrays embedded in a near stagnant atmosphere, each probably possessing numerous short-lived rising hot columns driven by released latent heat; and covered by a horizontally-expanding gigantic cirrus cloud system, in anti-cyclonic rotation. The meteorological theory of Organized Cumulus Convection is applied to the Red Spot and the White Ovals. Evidence exists that the array of hot towers under the Red Spot is eccentric. The 90-day and the occassional 5-8 year fluctuations in the motion of the Red Spot may be due to processes analogous to those found in the Earth's Tropical Convergence. The 90-day oscillation has been observed for 8 years.

Kuiper, G. P.↗