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At least 829 records · Page 46

Developing a Validation Methodology for Expert-Informed Bayesian Network Models Supporting Nuclear Nonproliferation Analysis

Under the auspices of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory’s Signature Discovery Initiative (SDI), the research team developed a series of Bayesian Network models to assess multi-source signatures of nuclear programs. A Bayesian network is a mathematical model that can be used to marshal evidence to assess competing hypotheses. The purpose of the models was to allow non-expert analysts to benefit from the use of expert-informed mathematical models to assess nuclear programs, because such assessments require significant technical expertise ranging from the nuclear fuel cycle, construction and engineering, imagery analysis, and so forth. One such model developed under this research was aimed at assessing the consistency of open-source information about a nuclear facility with the facility’s declared use. The model incorporates factors such as location, security and safety features among others identified by subject matter experts as crucial to their assessments. The model includes key features, observables and their relationships. The model also provides documentation, which serves as training materials for the non-experts.

White, Amanda M.↗

Machine‐Learning Spectral Indicators of Topology

Abstract Topological materials discovery has emerged as an important frontier in condensed matter physics. While theoretical classification frameworks have been used to identify thousands of candidate topological materials, experimental determination of materials’ topology often poses significant technical challenges. X‐ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS) is a widely used materials characterization technique sensitive to atoms’ local symmetry and chemical bonding, which are intimately linked to band topology by the theory of topological quantum chemistry (TQC). Moreover, as a local structural probe, XAS is known to have high quantitative agreement between experiment and calculation, suggesting that insights from computational spectra can effectively inform experiments. In this work, computed X‐ray absorption near‐edge structure (XANES) spectra of more than 10 000 inorganic materials to train a neural network (NN) classifier that predicts topological class directly from XANES signatures, achieving F 1 scores of 89% and 93% for topological and trivial classes, respectively is leveraged. Given the simplicity of the XAS setup and its compatibility with multimodal sample environments, the proposed machine‐learning‐augmented XAS topological indicator has the potential to discover broader categories of topological materials, such as non‐cleavable compounds and amorphous materials, and may further inform field‐driven phenomena in situ, such as magnetic field‐driven topological phase transitions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DefectTrack: a deep learning-based multi-object tracking algorithm for quantitative defect analysis of in-situ TEM videos in real-time

Abstract In-situ irradiation transmission electron microscopy (TEM) offers unique insights into the millisecond-timescale post-cascade process, such as the lifetime and thermal stability of defect clusters, vital to the mechanistic understanding of irradiation damage in nuclear materials. Converting in-situ irradiation TEM video data into meaningful information on defect cluster dynamic properties (e.g., lifetime) has become the major technical bottleneck. Here, we present a solution called the DefectTrack , the first dedicated deep learning-based one-shot multi-object tracking (MOT) model capable of tracking cascade-induced defect clusters in in-situ TEM videos in real-time. DefectTrack has achieved a Multi-Object Tracking Accuracy (MOTA) of 66.43% and a Mostly Tracked (MT) of 67.81% on the test set, which are comparable to state-of-the-art MOT algorithms. We discuss the MOT framework, model selection, training, and evaluation strategies for in-situ TEM applications. Further, we compare the DefectTrack with four human experts in quantifying defect cluster lifetime distributions using statistical tests and discuss the relationship between the material science domain metrics and MOT metrics. Our statistical evaluations on the defect lifetime distribution suggest that the DefectTrack outperforms human experts in accuracy and speed.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Structure-Aware Unsupervised, Transformational Machine Learning for Drug Discovery (DTRA Basic Research Final Report)

The major goal of this project is to develop machine learning (ML) methods to enable improved predictive power on real drug discovery for novel targets. More specifically, we planned to demonstrate the capability and effectiveness of ML tools utilizing unlabeled large-volume protein-ligand datasets. We investigated multiple pre-training approaches for 3D protein-ligand structure-based foundation models, without relying on experimental binding data. We also addressed scenarios in which crystal structures are unavailable or binding data are limited. We also planned to develop a complete pipeline to screen novel compounds as well as to demonstrate the capability and effectiveness of the developed methods by testing on a realistic drug discovery task such as SARS-CoV-2. While the major goals and milestones remain consistent with the original proposal, certain technical details have been adjusted, based on the experimental results and related outcomes.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

The Application of Lean Thinking Principles and Kaizen Practices for the Successful Development and Implementation of the Ares I-X Flight Test Rocket and Mission

On October 28, 2009 the Ares I-X flight test rocket launched from Kennedy Space Center and flew its suborbital trajectory as designed. The mission was successfully completed as data from the test, and associated development activities were analyzed, transferred to stakeholders, and well documented. A positive lesson learned from Ares I-X was that the application of lean thinking principles and kaizen practices was very effective in streamlining development activities. Ares I-X, like other historical rocket development projects, was hampered by technical, cost, and schedule challenges and if not addressed boldly could have resulted in cancellation of the test. The mission management team conducted nine major meetings, referred to as lean events, across its elements to assess plans, procedures, processes, requirements, controls, culture, organization, use of resources, and anything that could be changed to optimize schedule or reduce risk. The preeminent aspect of the lean events was the focus on value added activities and the removal or at least reduction in non-value added activities. Trained Lean Six Sigma facilitators assisted the Ares I-X developers in conducting the lean events. They indirectly helped formulate the mission s own unique methodology for assessing schedule. A core team was selected to lead the events and report to the mission manager. Each activity leveraged specialized participants to analyze the subject matter and its related processes and then recommended alternatives and solutions. Stakeholders were the event champions. They empowered and encouraged the team to succeed. The keys to success were thorough preparation, honest dialog, small groups, adherence to the Ares I-X ground rules, and accountability through disciplined reporting and tracking of actions. This lean event formula was game-changing as demonstrated by Ares I-X. It is highly recommended as a management tool to help develop other complex systems efficiently. The key benefits for Ares I-X were obtaining unambiguous schedule margin, defining enabling options for risk reduction, and most importantly a stronger more unified team.

Askins, B. R.↗

MRCI Task 4: Evaluating Regional Infrastructure Technical Summary Report

The infrastructure required to enable carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) goes beyond the equipment and materials needed to capture, transport, and store carbon dioxide (CO2) but includes people and policy that make CCS feasible. The Infrastructure Assessment task of the Midwest Regional Carbon Initiative (MRCI) seeks to determine the infrastructure requirements for the MRCI study area through four activities: • Infrastructure Readiness: Strategizing the buildout of capture, transport, and storage infrastructure in the Midwest, Northeast, and Mid-Atlantic Offshore. • Site Readiness: Determining the CCS readiness of each state in the MRCI region in the categories of subsurface readiness; infrastructure readiness; regulations, permitting, and incentives; and social dynamics. • Jobs, Economics, and Social Characteristics: Quantifying the economic potential, job opportunities, and training opportunities for CCS as well as the social characteristics of the region with a focus on energy and environmental justice (EJ) issues. • Policy and Regulations: Providing an updated accounting of the CCS-relevant policy and regulations in the MRCI region.

CCUS,Carbon storage,Midwest,Midwest Regional Carbo↗

Chooz A, First Pressurized Water Reactor to be Dismantled in France - 13445

Nine commercial nuclear power plants have been permanently shut down in France to date, of which the Chooz A plant underwent an extensive decommissioning and dismantling program. Chooz Nuclear Power Station is located in the municipality of Chooz, Ardennes region, in the northeast part of France. Chooz B1 and B2 are 1,500 megawatt electric (MWe) pressurized water reactors (PWRs) currently in operation. Chooz A, a 305 MWe PWR implanted in two caves within a hill, began operations in 1967 and closed in 1991, and will now become the first PWR in France to be fully dismantled. EDF CIDEN (Engineering Center for Dismantling and Environment) has awarded Westinghouse a contract for the dismantling of its Chooz A reactor vessel (RV). The project began in January 2010. Westinghouse is leading the project in a consortium with Nuvia France. The project scope includes overall project management, conditioning of the reactor vessel (RV) head, RV and RV internals segmentation, reactor nozzle cutting for lifting the RV out of the pit and seal it afterwards, dismantling of the RV thermal insulation, ALARA (As Low As Reasonably Achievable) forecast to ensure acceptable doses for the personnel, complementary vacuum cleaner to catch the chips during the segmentation work, needs and facilities, waste characterization and packaging, civil work modifications, licensing documentation. The RV and RV internals will be segmented based on the mechanical cutting technology that Westinghouse applied successfully for more than 13 years. The segmentation activities cover the cutting and packaging plan, tooling design and qualification, personnel training and site implementation. Since Chooz A is located inside two caves, the project will involve waste transportation from the reactor cave through long galleries to the waste buffer area. The project will end after the entire dismantling work is completed, and the waste storage is outside the caves and ready to be shipped either to the ANDRA (French National Radioactive Waste Management Agency) waste disposal facilities - (for low-level waste [LLW] and very low-level waste [VLLW], which are considered short lived) - or to the EDF Interim Storage Facility planned to be built on another site - (for low- and intermediate-level waste [LILW], which is considered long lived). The project has started with a detailed conceptual study that determines the step-by-step approach for dismantling the reactor and eventually supplying the packed containers ready for final disposal. All technical reports must be verified and approved by EDF and the French Nuclear Safety Authority before receiving the authorization to start the site work. The detailed conceptual study has been completed to date and equipment design and manufacturing is ongoing. This paper will present the conceptual design of the reactor internals segmentation and packaging process that will be implemented at Chooz A, including the planning, methodology, equipment, waste management, and packaging strategy. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Accomplishments and Year-End Performance Report; Wind Energy Program: Fiscal Year 2021

The National Wind Technology Center (NWTC), located at the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) Flatirons Campus, has been a driving force in advancing wind energy technology research worldwide since its designation as a DOE national research center in 1992. Enabled by the Flatirons Campus's world-class facilities, scientists, engineers, analysts, and researchers are pushing the frontiers of science to pursue wind energy innovation. In Fiscal Year (FY) 2021, NREL continued to provide the technical expertise, research capabilities, and industry understanding to support DOE's ambitious climate action and research goals by advancing technology, addressing market and deployment barriers, and driving down costs with more efficient, reliable, and predictable wind energy systems. One of several highlights, NREL received an R&D 100 Special Recognition Award for its Thermoplastic Resin System for Wind Turbine Blades. This breakthrough in the wind turbine manufacturing process will enable the production of recyclable blades that are stronger, longer, and less expensive, while increasing energy capture, decreasing energy and transportation costs, and increasing blade reliability. In a year when the entire U.S. economy struggled to address workforce gaps, an NREL study compared wind industry needs, training programs, and hiring practices with perspectives from students and recent college graduates. Researchers hope that, by pinpointing areas of disconnect, the expectations of employers who have difficulty filling entry-level jobs can better align with the preparation of the potential applicants who find it hard to break into the field. The lab also made numerous new data and modeling resources available in FY 2021. Recent NREL releases include a modeling tool for predicting the power performance and structural loads of wind turbines within a wind farm (FAST.Farm), a computational framework for modeling golden eagle behavior near wind farms, and 20 years of offshore wind data. Updates were also made to the widely used Wind Plant Integrated Systems Design and Engineering Model (WISDEM), which couples engineering and cost models to examine system-level trade-offs. Now, bolstered by a renewed national commitment to tackle climate change and revitalize the U.S. economy through increased investment in clean energy - particularly in offshore wind energy - NREL stands poised to lead the way to a sustainable future that powers the United States with significant levels of reliable, low-cost, accessible wind energy. This report provides an overview of the achievements NREL made on behalf of DOE's Wind Energy Technologies Office (WETO) and other partners during FY 2021 (between Oct. 1, 2020, and Sept. 30, 2021).

Flatirons Campus↗

Expansion of Machine-Learning Method for Classifying Neutron Resonances

The understanding of astrophysics processes and the performance of nuclear reactors and other nuclear systems depend on a precise description of the neutron interaction cross sections for materials and nuclei present in these environments. At low neutron energies, these cross sections exhibit resonance structure represented by sharp enhancements when the neutron energy is sufficiently close to excited levels in a compound nucleus. Such resonances can be characterized by their quantum numbers relative to angular momenta, which are often deduced in an ad hoc and irreproducible manner from the shape of the cross sections. The correct assignment of the quantum numbers of neutron resonances is therefore of paramount importance. To address this we have developed a machine-learning method to automate the identification and correction of these spin assignments. The algorithm is trained from simulated data, generated from statistical properties of resonance data for a given nucleus, to mimic the errors found in real data. In this project we describe five independent approaches to further develop and expand the applicability of the machine-learning spin classifier: i) Feature impact; ii) Integration with the Atlas; iii) Training optimization; iv) Spacings systematics; and v) Validation with polarized data. The premises, methods, results, and future perspectives are discussed.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Results of Speciation Determination Measurements of Insulating Sulfur Hexafluoride Gas

Under the direction of the NNSA NA-231 Mo-99 Program, SRNL has provided technical assistance to U.S. companies under cooperative agreements. One such area of technical assistance has been for the recommendation for contamination management methods in the eventuality that tritium contaminates the insulating gas of a high-voltage ion source used in the accelerator-based process developed by SHINE Medical Technologies to produce Mo-99. The SHINE accelerator process uses tritium as the target of a deuterium ion beam, where the ion beam is produced within a high-voltage ion source insulated with sulfur hexafluoride (SF 6 ), and is separated from the tritium target by an extensive pump train. Normal operating conditions preclude the conditions necessary for contamination of the insulating gas, however certain atypical conditions could result in a tritium contamination event. Accelerator based processes for medical isotope production represent an anomalous tritium contamination challenge due to the presence of SF 6 . SF 6 decomposes through normal use as an insulator gas, and the exact speciation of the decomposition byproducts depends on a variety of factors. This creates a scenario where the anticipation of species present in the insulating gas mixture is difficult. In turn, the fate of tritium within such a chemical system is unclear. This document discusses the results of measurements made in-situ of the SF 6 insulating gas in use within a SHINE Medical Technology’s high-voltage ion source. This was done in an effort to determine the chemical speciation of the gas, allowing for the recommendation of management strategies in the event that tritium contaminates the insulating gas. The results of the measurements reported in this work suggest that tritium contamination in the insulating gas may result in two chemical forms of tritium in the system, tritiated water and molecular tritium. These two forms of tritium would be captured by two methods. Tritiated water may be captured and removed from the SF 6 by an adsorbent canister already present within the pressure vessel that houses the insulating gas while in use. It may also be separated from the SF 6 during routine purification of the SF 6 , which is performed by SHINE personnel routinely. The purification cart will perform all non-embedded systems cleanup necessary to remediate tritiated species in the system. The purification cart passes the insulating gas through several filters, followed by the liquefication of the SF 6 . The filters will separate tritiated water from the SF 6 at this stage. It is expected that molecular tritium will accumulate in the gas-phase during the liquification step, which is separated and stored. Tritium may be recovered from this mixture through more conventional hydrogen purification methods such as a palladium diffuser.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

OMS FDIR: Initial prototyping

The Space Station Freedom Program (SSFP) Operations Management System (OMS) will automate major management functions which coordinate the operations of onboard systems, elements and payloads. The objectives of OMS are to improve safety, reliability and productivity while reducing maintenance and operations cost. This will be accomplished by using advanced automation techniques to automate much of the activity currently performed by the flight crew and ground personnel. OMS requirements have been organized into five task groups: (1) Planning, Execution and Replanning; (2) Data Gathering, Preprocessing and Storage; (3) Testing and Training; (4) Resource Management; and (5) Caution and Warning and Fault Management for onboard subsystems. The scope of this prototyping effort falls within the Fault Management requirements group. The prototyping will be performed in two phases. Phase 1 is the development of an onboard communications network fault detection, isolation, and reconfiguration (FDIR) system. Phase 2 will incorporate global FDIR for onboard systems. Research into the applicability of expert systems, object-oriented programming, fuzzy sets, neural networks and other advanced techniques will be conducted. The goals and technical approach for this new SSFP research project are discussed here.

Taylor, Eric W.↗

Resource for the Development of Biomedical Accelerator Mass Spectrometry (AMS)

The NIH Research Resource for Biomedical AMS was originally funded at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in 1999 to develop and apply the technology of accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) in broad- based biomedical research. The Resource’s niche is to fill needs for ultra high sensitivity quantitation when isotope-labeled agents are used. The Research Resource’s Technology Research and Development (TR&D) efforts will focus on the needs of the biomedical research community in the context of seven Driving Biomedical Projects (DBPs) that will drive the Center’s technical capabilities through three core TR&Ds. We will expand our present capabilities by developing a fully integrated HPLC AMS to increase our capabilities for metabolic measurements, we will develop methods to understand cellular processes and we will develop and validate methods for the application of AMS in human studies, which is a growing area of demand by collaborators and service users. In addition, we will continue to support new and ongoing collaborative and service projects that require the capabilities of the Resource. The Center will continue to train researchers in the use of the AMS capabilities being developed, and the results of all efforts will be widely disseminated to advance progress in biomedical research. Towards these goals, our specific aims are to:1.) Increase the value and information content of AMS measurements by combining molecular speciation with quantitation of defined macromolecular isolates. Specifically, develop and validate methods for macromolecule labeling, characterization and quantitation.2.) Develop and validate methods and strategies to enable AMS to become more broadly used in human studies. Specifically, demonstrate robust methods for conducting pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamics studies in humans and model systems.3.) Increase the accessibility of AMS to the Biomedical research community and the throughput of AMS through direct coupling to separatory instruments.4.) Provide high throughput 14C BioAMS analysis for collaborative and service clients.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Resource for the Development of Biomedical Accelerator Mass Spectrometry (AMS)

The NIH Research Resource for Biomedical AMS was originally funded at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in 1999 to develop and apply the technology of accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) in broad- based biomedical research. The Resource’s niche is to fill needs for ultra high sensitivity quantitation when isotope-labeled agents are used. The Research Resource’s Technology Research and Development (TR&D) efforts will focus on the needs of the biomedical research community in the context of seven Driving Biomedical Projects (DBPs) that will drive the Center’s technical capabilities through three core TR&Ds. We will expand our present capabilities by developing a fully integrated HPLC AMS to increase our capabilities for metabolic measurements, we will develop methods to understand cellular processes and we will develop and validate methods for the application of AMS in human studies, which is a growing area of demand by collaborators and service users. In addition, we will continue to support new and ongoing collaborative and service projects that require the capabilities of the Resource. The Center will continue to train researchers in the use of the AMS capabilities being developed, and the results of all efforts will be widely disseminated to advance progress in biomedical research. Towards these goals, our specific aims are to:1.) Increase the value and information content of AMS measurements by combining molecular speciation with quantitation of defined macromolecular isolates. Specifically, develop and validate methods for macromolecule labeling, characterization and quantitation.2.) Develop and validate methods and strategies to enable AMS to become more broadly used in human studies. Specifically, demonstrate robust methods for conducting pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamics studies in humans and model systems.3.) Increase the accessibility of AMS to the Biomedical research community and the throughput of AMS through direct coupling to separatory instruments.4.) Provide high throughput 14C BioAMS analysis for collaborative and service clients.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Resource for the Development of Biomedical Accelerator Mass Spectrometry (AMS) Final Report

The NIH Research Resource for Biomedical AMS was originally funded at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in 1999 to develop and apply the technology of accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) in broad- based biomedical research. The Resource’s niche is to fill needs for ultra high sensitivity quantitation when isotope-labeled agents are used. The Research Resource’s Technology Research and Development (TR&D) efforts will focus on the needs of the biomedical research community in the context of seven Driving Biomedical Projects (DBPs) that will drive the Center’s technical capabilities through three core TR&Ds. We will expand our present capabilities by developing a fully integrated HPLC AMS to increase our capabilities for metabolic measurements, we will develop methods to understand cellular processes and we will develop and validate methods for the application of AMS in human studies, which is a growing area of demand by collaborators and service users. In addition, we will continue to support new and ongoing collaborative and service projects that require the capabilities of the Resource. The Center will continue to train researchers in the use of the AMS capabilities being developed, and the results of all efforts will be widely disseminated to advance progress in biomedical research. Towards these goals, our specific aims are to:1.) Increase the value and information content of AMS measurements by combining molecular speciation with quantitation of defined macromolecular isolates. Specifically, develop and validate methods for macromolecule labeling, characterization and quantitation.2.) Develop and validate methods and strategies to enable AMS to become more broadly used in human studies. Specifically, demonstrate robust methods for conducting pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamics studies in humans and model systems.3.) Increase the accessibility of AMS to the Biomedical research community and the throughput of AMS through direct coupling to separatory instruments.4.) Provide high throughput 14C BioAMS analysis for collaborative and service clients.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Satellite Servicer System flight demonstration program

The major hardware elements, demonstration objectives, and technical approaches, as well as existing and developing technologies for applicability to the Satellite Servicer System (SSSFD) program are presented. In a project to develop the capability of servicing satellites in remote locations, NASA and SDI have planned a series of flights to demonstrate autonomous rendezvous and docking, supervised autonomous fluid transfer, and supervised autonomous orbital replacement unit exchange. Program objectives, design reference mission, and flight demonstrations are described. The expanded capability demonstrated by the SSSFD program will provide alternatives to excessive dependence on ground operations personnel and training, increase the reach into unique space environments, and decrease the costs of managing and operating space assets.

Moore, James S.↗

Software Quality Assurance Metrics

Software Quality Assurance (SQA) is a planned and systematic set of activities that ensures conformance of software life cycle processes and products conform to requirements, standards and procedures. In software development, software quality means meeting requirements and a degree of excellence and refinement of a project or product. Software Quality is a set of attributes of a software product by which its quality is described and evaluated. The set of attributes includes functionality, reliability, usability, efficiency, maintainability, and portability. Software Metrics help us understand the technical process that is used to develop a product. The process is measured to improve it and the product is measured to increase quality throughout the life cycle of software. Software Metrics are measurements of the quality of software. Software is measured to indicate the quality of the product, to assess the productivity of the people who produce the product, to assess the benefits derived from new software engineering methods and tools, to form a baseline for estimation, and to help justify requests for new tools or additional training. Any part of the software development can be measured. If Software Metrics are implemented in software development, it can save time, money, and allow the organization to identify the caused of defects which have the greatest effect on software development. The summer of 2004, I worked with Cynthia Calhoun and Frank Robinson in the Software Assurance/Risk Management department. My task was to research and collect, compile, and analyze SQA Metrics that have been used in other projects that are not currently being used by the SA team and report them to the Software Assurance team to see if any metrics can be implemented in their software assurance life cycle process.

McRae, Kalindra A.↗

Non-intrusive reduced-order modeling for dynamical systems with spatially localized features

This work presents a non-intrusive reduced-order modeling framework for dynamical systems with spatially localized features characterized by slow singular value decay. The proposed approach builds upon two existing methodologies for reduced and full-order non-intrusive modeling, namely Operator Inference (OpInf) and sparse Full-Order Model (sFOM) inference. We decompose the domain into two complementary subdomains that exhibit fast and slow singular value decay. The dynamics of the subdomain exhibiting slow singular value decay are learned with sFOM while the dynamics with intrinsically low dimensionality on the complementary subdomain are learned with OpInf. The resulting, coupled OpInf-sFOM formulation leverages the computational efficiency of OpInf and the high resolution of sFOM, and thus enables fast non-intrusive predictions for conditions beyond those sampled in the training data set. A novel regularization technique with a closed-form solution based on the Gershgorin disk theorem is introduced to promote stable sFOM and OpInf models. We also provide a data-driven indicator for subdomain selection and ensure solution smoothness over the interface via a post-processing interpolation step. We evaluate the efficiency of the approach in terms of offline and online speedup through a quantitative, parametric computational cost analysis. We demonstrate the coupled OpInf-sFOM formulation for two test cases: a one-dimensional Burgers’ model for which accurate predictions beyond the span of the training snapshots are presented, and a two-dimensional parametric model for the Pine Island Glacier ice thickness dynamics, for which the OpInf-sFOM model achieves an average prediction error on the order of 1% with an online speedup factor of approximately 8$\times$ compared to the numerical simulation.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Southern Colorado Disasters: Using NASA Earth Observations to Map Aspen Extent and Recovery Due to Wildfire

Quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides) is an important species for wildlife, watershed health, and ecosystem resilience across its range. Heavy ungulate browsing and factors influenced by a changing climate including seasonal temperature changes and moisture deficit have led to reduced post-fire aspen regeneration rates in southern Colorado. This project partnered with Trinchera Ranch and the Colorado State Forest Service to estimate aspen recovery after the Spring Creek Fire, which ignited in June of 2018. The Southern Colorado Disasters team utilized field measurements and satellite imagery from Landsat Operational Land Imager (OLI), Sentinel-2 MultiSpectral Instrument (MSI), and the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) to train and run several random forest models that detect pre- and post-fire aspen extent. Ocular sampling of over 500 points on high-resolution pre-fire and post-fire images identified percentage aspen cover in 30 x 30-meter grid cells. This process provided training data for regression models, which were able to detect aspen across the landscape for both time periods using multiple remote sensing vegetation health indices. In addition, landscape suitability for aspen regeneration was modeled to provide a guide for managers on where to monitor for aspen regeneration post-fire.

DEVELOP Technical Paper↗