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A Theoretical and Observational Study of Large and Small-Scale Dynamics in the Mesosphere and Lower Thermosphere in Support of TIMED

The long-term objectives of this IDS component of the TIMED mission are to define, through a combination of modeling and data analysis efforts, the influences of large- and small-scale waves (tidal, planetary, and gravity waves) on the circulation, structure, composition, and variability of the mesosphere and lower thermosphere. Particular emphasis is aimed at the TIMED core science objectives of defining the structure and energetics of the TIMED core region, approx. 60 to 180 km. To do so, however, it is also essential to understand the dynamical influences and contributions because of their considerable direct and indirect influences on structure and energetics. To accomplish these goals, we anticipate two parallel modeling efforts and a significant data analysis effort following TIMED launch. The modeling efforts will address both: the residual circulation response to mean and variable wave forcing of the MLT through development of a spherical model addressing balanced flow dynamics and transience and a more comprehensive effort addressing gravity wave propagation, interactions, nonlinearity, and spectral evolution and transports in canonical and realistic environments. The data analysis effort is envisioned to involve application of ground-based measurements and TIMED data analyses to a quantification of gravity wave forcing and effects at one or more sites with comprehensive measurement suites and extension of the inferred forcing globally, based on distributed ground-based measurements. Research results and publications resulting from the research are included.

Fritts, David C.↗

A Factorial Data Rate and Dwell Time Experiment in the National Transonic Facility

This report is an introductory tutorial on the application of formal experiment design methods to wind tunnel testing, for the benefit of aeronautical engineers with little formal experiment design training. It also describes the results of a Study to determine whether increases in the sample rate and dwell time of the National Transonic Facility data system Would result in significant changes in force and moment data. Increases in sample rate from 10 samples per second to 50 samples per second were examined, as were changes in dwell time from one second per data point to two seconds. These changes were examined for a representative aircraft model in a range of tunnel operating conditions defined by angles of attack from 0 deg to 3.8 degrees, total pressure from 15.0 psi to 24.1 psi, and Mach numbers from 0.52 to 0.82. No statistically significant effect was associated with the change in sample rate. The change in dwell time from one second to two seconds affected axial force measurements, and to a lesser degree normal force measurements. This dwell effect comprises a "rectification error" caused by incomplete cancellation of the positive and negative elements of certain low frequency dynamic components that are not rejected by the one-Hz low-pass filters of the data system. These low frequency effects may be due to tunnel circuit phenomena and other sources. The magnitude of the dwell effect depends on dynamic pressure, with angle of attack and Mach number influencing the strength of this dependence. An analysis is presented which suggests that the magnitude of the rectification error depends on the ratio of measurement dwell time to the period of the low-frequency dynamics, as well as the amplitude of the dynamics The essential conclusion of this analysis is that extending the dwell time (or, equivalently, replicating short-dwell data points) reduces the rectification error.

DeLoach, R.↗

Simulation of a Real-Time Local Data Integration System over East-Central Florida

The Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) simulated a real-time configuration of a Local Data Integration System (LDIS) using data from 15-28 February 1999. The objectives were to assess the utility of a simulated real-time LDIS, evaluate and extrapolate system performance to identify the hardware necessary to run a real-time LDIS, and determine the sensitivities of LDIS. The ultimate goal for running LDIS is to generate analysis products that enhance short-range (less than 6 h) weather forecasts issued in support of the 45th Weather Squadron, Spaceflight Meteorology Group, and Melbourne National Weather Service operational requirements. The simulation used the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS) software on an IBM RS/6000 workstation with a 67-MHz processor. This configuration ran in real-time, but not sufficiently fast for operational requirements. Thus, the AMU recommends a workstation with a 200-MHz processor and 512 megabytes of memory to run the AMU's configuration of LDIS in real-time. This report presents results from two case studies and several data sensitivity experiments. ADAS demonstrates utility through its ability to depict high-resolution cloud and wind features in a variety of weather situations. The sensitivity experiments illustrate the influence of disparate data on the resulting ADAS analyses.

Case, Jonathan↗

Timing Noise in SGR 1806-20

We have phase connected a sequence of Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer Proportional Counter Array observations of SGR 1806-20 covering 178 days. We find a simple secular spin-down model does not adequately fit the data. The period derivative varies gradually during the observations between 8.1 and 11.7 x 10(exp -11) s/s (approx. 40% larger than the long term trend), while the average burst rate as seen with the Burst and Transient Source Experiment drops throughout the time interval. The phase residuals show no evidence for periodicity, but more closely resemble timing noise as seen ill radio pulsars. The magnitude of the timing noise., however, is large relative to the noise level typically found in radio pulsars (Delta(sub 8) = 4.8; frequency derivative average power approx. = 8 X 10(exp -20) Hz/sq s). Combined with the noise levels measured for some AXPs. we find all magnetar candidates have A8 values larger than those expected from a simple extrapolation of the correlation found in radio pulsars. We find the timing noise ill SGR 1806-20 is greater than or equal to the levels found in some accreting systems (e.g., Vela X-1, 4U 1538-52 and 4U 1626-67). Alternatively, an orbital model with a period P(sub orb) = 733 days provides a statistically acceptable fit to the data. If the phase residuals are created by Doppler shifts from a gravitationally bound companion. then the allowed parameter space for the mass function (small) and orbital separation (large) rule out the possibility of accretion from the companion sufficient to power the persistent emission from the SGR.

Woods, Peter M.↗

Timing Noise in SGR 1806-20

We have phase-connected a sequence of Rossi X-Ray Timing Explorer Proportional Counter Array observations of SGR 1806-20 covering 178 days. We find that a simple secular spin-down model does not adequately fit the data. The period derivative varies gradually during the observations between 8.1 x 10(exp -11) and 11.7 x 10(exp -11) s/s (at its highest, approximately 40% larger than the long-term trend), while the average burst rate as seen with the Burst and Transient Source Experiment drops throughout the time interval. The phase residuals give no compelling evidence for periodicity, but more closely resemble timing noise as seen in radio pulsars. The magnitude of the timing noise, however, is large relative to the noise level typically found in radio pulsars (Delta(sub 8) = 4.8; frequency derivative average power approximately 7 x 10(exp -20) sq cycles/cubic s). Combining these results with the noise levels measured for some anomalous X-ray pulsars, we find that all magnetar candidates have Delta(sub 8) values larger than those expected from a simple extrapolation of the correlation found in radio pulsars. We find that the timing noise in SGR 1806-20 is greater than or equal to the levels found in some accreting systems (e.g., Vela X-1, 4U 1538-52, and 4U 1626-67), but the spin-down of SGR 1806-20 has thus far maintained coherence over 6 yr. Alternatively, an orbital model with a period P(sub orb) = 733 days provides a statistically acceptable fit to the data. If the phase residuals are created by Doppler shifts from a gravitationally bound companion, then the allowed parameter space for the mass function (small) and orbital separation (large) rule out the possibility of accretion from the companion sufficient to power the persistent emission from the SGR.

Woods, P. M.↗

Development and Implementation of Real-Time Information Delivery Systems for Emergency Management

The disaster management community has an on-going need for real-time data and information, especially during catastrophic events. Currently, twin engine or jet aircraft with limited altitude and duration capabilities collect much of the data. Flight safety is also an issue. Clearly, much of the needed data could be delivered via over-the-horizon transfer through a uninhabited aerial vehicles (UAV) platform to mission managers at various locations on the ground. In fact, because of the ability to stay aloft for long periods of time, and to fly above dangerous situations, UAV's are ideally suited for disaster missions. There are numerous situations that can be considered disastrous for the human population. Some, such as fire or flood, can continue over a period of days. Disaster management officials rely on data from the site to respond in an optimum way with warnings, evacuations, rescue, relief, and to the extent possible, damage control. Although different types of disasters call for different types of response, most situations can be improved by having visual images and other remotely sensed data available. "Disaster Management" is actually made up of a number of activities, including: - Disaster Prevention and Mitigation - Emergency Response Planning - Disaster Management (real-time deployment of resources, during an event) - Disaster / Risk Modeling All of these activities could benefit from real-time information, but a major focus for UAV-based technology is in real-time deployment of resources (i.e., emergency response teams), based on changing conditions at the location of the event. With all these potential benefits, it is desirable to demonstrate to user agencies the ability to perform disaster management missions as described. The following demonstration project is the first in a program designed to prove the feasibility of supporting disaster missions with UAV technology and suitable communications packages on-board. A several-year program is envisioned, in which a broad range of disaster-related activities are demonstrated to the appropriate user communities.

Wegener, Steve↗

Detection of Objects Hidden in Highly Scattering Media Using Time-Gated Imaging Methods

Non-intrusive and non-invasive optical imaging techniques has generated great interest among researchers for their potential applications to biological study, device characterization, surface defect detection, and jet fuel dynamics. Non-linear optical parametric amplification gate (NLOPG) has been used to detect back-scattered images of objects hidden in diluted Intralipid solutions. To directly detect objects hidden in highly scattering media, the diffusive component of light needs to be sorted out from early arrived ballistic and snake photons. In an optical imaging system, images are collected in transmission or back-scattered geometry. The early arrival photons in the transmission approach, always carry the direct information of the hidden object embedded in the turbid medium. In the back-scattered approach, the result is not so forth coming. In the presence of a scattering host, the first arrival photons in back-scattered approach will be directly photons from the host material. In the presentation, NLOPG was applied to acquire time resolved back-scattered images under the phase matching condition. A time-gated amplified signal was obtained through this NLOPG process. The system's gain was approximately 100 times. The time-gate was achieved through phase matching condition where only coherent photons retain their phase. As a result, the diffusive photons, which were the primary contributor to the background, were removed. With a large dynamic range and high resolution, time-gated early light imaging has the potential for improving rocket/aircraft design by determining jets shape and particle sizes. Refinements to these techniques may enable drop size measurements in the highly scattering, optically dense region of multi-element rocket injectors. These types of measurements should greatly enhance the design of stable, and higher performing rocket engines.

Galland, Pierre A.↗

Effects of Above Real Time Training (ARTT) On Individual Skills and Contributions to Crew/Team Performance

Above Real Time Training (ARTT) is the training acquired on a real time simulator when it is modified to present events at a faster pace than normal. The experiments on training of pilots performed by NASA engineers and others have indicated that real time training (RTT) reinforced with ARTT would offer an effective training strategy for such tasks which require significant effort at time and workload management. A study was conducted to find how ARTT and RTT complement each other for training of novice pilot-navigator teams to fly on a required route. In the experiment, each of the participating pilot-navigator teams was required to conduct simulator flights on a prescribed two-legged ground track while maintaining required air speed and altitude. At any instant in a flight, the distance between the actual spatial point location of the airplane and the required spatial point was used as a measure of deviation from the required route. A smaller deviation represented better performance. Over a segment of flight or over complete flight, an average value of the deviation represented consolidated performance. The deviations were computed from the information on latitude, longitude, and altitude. In the combined ARTT and RTT program, ARTT at intermediate training intervals was beneficial in improving the real time performance of the trainees. It was observed that the team interaction between pilot and navigator resulted in maintaining high motivation and active participation throughout the training program.

Ali, Syed Firasat↗

Rollout and Turnoff (ROTO) Guidance and Information Displays: Effect on Runway Occupancy Time in Simulated Low-Visibility Landings

This report examines a rollout and turnoff (ROTO) system for reducing the runway occupancy time for transport aircraft in low-visibility weather. Simulator runs were made to evaluate the system that includes a head-up display (HUD) to show the pilot a graphical overlay of the runway along with guidance and steering information to a chosen exit. Fourteen pilots (airline, corporate jet, and research pilots) collectively flew a total of 560 rollout and turnoff runs using all eight runways at Hartsfield Atlanta International Airport. The runs consisted of 280 runs for each of two runway visual ranges (RVRs) (300 and 1200 ft). For each visual range, half the runs were conducted with the HUD information and half without. For the runs conducted with the HUD information, the runway occupancy times were lower and more consistent. The effect was more pronounced as visibility decreased. For the 1200-ft visibility, the runway occupancy times were 13% lower with HUD information (46.1 versus 52.8 sec). Similarly, for the 300-ft visibility, the times were 28% lower (45.4 versus 63.0 sec). Also, for the runs with HUD information, 78% (RVR 1200) and 75% (RVR 300) had runway occupancy times less than 50 sec, versus 41 and 20%, respectively, without HUD information.

Hueschen, Richard M.↗

Experimental Demonstration of the Use of a N2O/N2 Mixture in the Driven Tube of a Reflected Shock Tunnel in Order to Increase Test Time

An experimental investigation was carried out into the replacement of air in the driven tube of a reflected shock tunnel by an N2O/N2 mixture in order to increase the test time. The incident shock velocities were between 2 and 3 km/sec. Test times were estimated from light emission histories in the driven tube (at distance of L/D = 46.5 from the main diaphragm) and in the nozzle at an area ratio of 27.9 and from pressure histories just upstream of the nozzle entrance (at L/D = 54). The test times estimated from the light emission histories in the driven tube showed that consistent increases of 60-100% were obtained upon substituting N2O/N2 for air in the driven tube. These increases were in very good agreement with theoretical estimates. The test times estimated from the light emission histories in the nozzle or pressure histories at the nozzle inlet showed significant improvements with N2O/N2 only for cases where the facility was operated at substantially overtailored conditions. It is believed that this is due to the greater stability of the driver-driven interface at overtailored operating conditions. At overtailored operating conditions, test times increases of 60-100% with N2O/N2 were observed with all three diagnostic techniques. These increases were in reasonable agreement with theoretical estimates.

Bogdanoff, David W.↗

Time-Accurate Solutions of Incompressible Navier-Stokes Equations for Potential Turbopump Applications

Two numerical procedures, one based on artificial compressibility method and the other pressure projection method, are outlined for obtaining time-accurate solutions of the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations. The performance of the two method are compared by obtaining unsteady solutions for the evolution of twin vortices behind a at plate. Calculated results are compared with experimental and other numerical results. For an un- steady ow which requires small physical time step, pressure projection method was found to be computationally efficient since it does not require any subiterations procedure. It was observed that the artificial compressibility method requires a fast convergence scheme at each physical time step in order to satisfy incompressibility condition. This was obtained by using a GMRES-ILU(0) solver in our computations. When a line-relaxation scheme was used, the time accuracy was degraded and time-accurate computations became very expensive.

Kiris, Cetin↗

Parametric Study of a YAV-8B Harrier in Ground Effect Using Time-Dependent Navier-Stokes Computations

Flow simulations using the time-dependent Navier-Stokes equations remain a challenge for several reasons. Principal among them are the difficulty to accurately model complex flows, and the time needed to perform the computations. A parametric study of such complex problems is not considered practical due to the large cost associated with computing many time-dependent solutions. The computation time for each solution must be reduced in order to make a parametric study possible. With successful reduction of computation time, the issue of accuracy, and appropriateness of turbulence models will become more tractable.

Shishir, Pandya↗

Prospects for Improved Forecasts of Weather and Short-Term Climate Variability on Subseasonal (2-Week to 2-Month) Times Scales

This workshop, held in April 2002, brought together various Earth Sciences experts to focus on the subseasonal prediction problem. While substantial advances have occurred over the last few decades in both weather and seasonal prediction, progress in improving predictions on these intermediate time scales (time scales ranging from about two weeks to two months) has been slow. The goals of the workshop were to get an assessment of the "state of the art" in predictive skill on these time scales, to determine the potential sources of "untapped" predictive skill, and to make recommendations for a course of action that will accelerate progress in this area. One of the key conclusions of the workshop was that there is compelling evidence for predictability at forecast lead times substantially longer than two weeks. Tropical diabatic heating and soil wetness were singled out as particularly important processes affecting predictability on these time scales. Predictability was also linked to various low-frequency atmospheric "phenomena" such as the annular modes in high latitudes (including their connections to the stratosphere), the Pacific/North American (PNA) pattern, and the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO). The latter, in particular, was highlighted as a key source of untapped predictability in the tropics and subtropics, including the Asian and Australian monsoon regions.

Schubert, Siegfried↗

Implementation of Preconditioned Dual-Time Procedures in OVERFLOW

Preconditioning methods have become the method of choice for the solution of flowfields involving the simultaneous presence of low Mach and transonic regions. It is well known that these methods are important for insuring accurate numerical discretization as well as convergence efficiency over various operating conditions such as low Mach number, low Reynolds number and high Strouhal numbers. For unsteady problems, the preconditioning is introduced within a dual-time framework wherein the physical time-derivatives are used to march the unsteady equations and the preconditioned time-derivatives are used for purposes of numerical discretization and iterative solution. In this paper, we describe the implementation of the preconditioned dual-time methodology in the OVERFLOW code. To demonstrate the performance of the method, we employ both simple and practical unsteady flowfields, including vortex propagation in a low Mach number flow, flowfield of an impulsively started plate (Stokes' first problem) arid a cylindrical jet in a low Mach number crossflow with ground effect. All the results demonstrate that the preconditioning algorithm is responsible for improvements to both numerical accuracy and convergence efficiency and, thereby, enables low Mach number unsteady computations to be performed at a fraction of the cost of traditional time-marching methods.

Pandya, Shishir A.↗

Time as an Observable in Nonrelativistic Quantum Mechanics

The argument follows from the viewpoint that quantum mechanics is taken not in the usual form involving vectors and linear operators in Hilbert spaces, but as a boundary value problem for a special class of partial differential equations-in the present work, the nonrelativistic Schrodinger equation for motion of a structureless particle in four- dimensional space-time in the presence of a potential energy distribution that can be time-as well as space-dependent. The domain of interest is taken to be one of two semi-infinite boxes, one bounded by two t=constant planes and the other by two t=constant planes. Each gives rise to a characteristic boundary value problem: one in which the initial, input values on one t=constant wall are given, with zero asymptotic wavefunction values in all spatial directions, the output being the values on the second t=constant wall; the second with certain input values given on both z=constant walls, with zero asymptotic values in all directions involving time and the other spatial coordinates, the output being the complementary values on the z=constant walls. The first problem corresponds to ordinary quantum mechanics; the second, to a fully time-dependent version of a problem normally considered only for the steady state (time-independent Schrodinger equation). The second problem is formulated in detail. A conserved indefinite metric is associated with space-like propagation, where the sign of the norm of a unidirectional state corresponds to its spatial direction of travel.

Hahne, G. E.↗

Time-Variable Gravity Signal Due to Extratropic Pacific Water Mass Redistribution

Cox and Chao [2002] reported the detection of a large anomaly in the form of a positive "jump" in the time series of Earth's lowest-degree gravity harmonic J2, or the dynamic oblateness, during 1998. This prompted us to examine the mass redistribution in the global oceans. We report here a seesaw of the sea-surface height (SSH) in the extratropic north + south Pacific basins -- the leading (nonseasonal) EOF/PC mode in SSH derived from the 10-year TOPEX/Poseidon altimetry data in the extratropic Pacific region. The mode underwent a step-like jump with time evolution that match remarkably well with the observed J2 anomaly. However, the magnitude is several times too small to explain the observed J2, even if assuming the SSH jump was all mass-induced (as opposed to any steric effect which causes no time-variable gravity signal). If one accepts the notion that this extratropic Pacific seesaw is part of the geophysical process that produced the observed 1998 J2 anomaly, then this finding suggests strong geophysical connection of the interannual-to-decadal variation of J2 with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), as the time series of the above EOF/PC mode is actually a formally defined PDO Index series.

Chao, Benjamin F.↗

Detailed Vibration Analysis of Pinion Gear with Time-Frequency Methods

In this paper, the authors show a detailed analysis of the vibration signal from the destructive testing of a spiral bevel gear and pinion pair containing seeded faults. The vibration signal is analyzed in the time domain, frequency domain and with four time-frequency transforms: the Short Time Frequency Transform (STFT), the Wigner-Ville Distribution with the Choi-Williams kernel (WV-CW), the Continuous Wavelet' Transform (CWT) and the Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT). Vibration data of bevel gear tooth fatigue cracks, under a variety of operating load levels and damage conditions, are analyzed using these methods. A new metric for automatic anomaly detection is developed and can be produced from any systematic numerical representation of the vibration signals. This new metric reveals indications of gear damage with all of the time-frequency transforms, as well as time and frequency representations, on this data set. Analysis with the CWT detects changes in the signal at low torque levels not found with the other transforms. The WV-CW and CWT use considerably more resources than the STFT and the DWT. More testing of the new metric is needed to determine its value for automatic anomaly detection and to develop fault detection methods for the metric.

Mosher, Marianne↗

Near-Real-Time Detection and Monitoring of Dust Events by Satellite (SeaWIFS, MODIS, and TOMS)

Over the last few years satellites have given us increasingly detailed information on the size, location, and duration of dust events around the world. These data not only provide valuable feedback to the modelling community as to the fidelity of their aerosol models but are also finding increasing use in near real-time applications. In particular, the ability to locate and track the development of aerosol dust clouds on a near real-time basis is being used by scientists and government to provide warning of air pollution episodes over major urban area. This ability has also become a crucial component of recent coordinated campaigns to study the characteristics of tropospheric aerosols such as dust and their effect on climate. One such recent campaign was ACE-Asia, which was designed to obtain the comprehensive set of ground, aircraft, and satellite data necessary to provide a detailed understanding of atmospheric aerosol particles over the Asian-Pacific region. As part of ACE-Asia, we developed a near real-time data processing and access system to provide satellite data from the polar-orbiting instruments Earth Probe TOMS (in the form of absorbing aerosol index) and SeaWiFS (in the form of aerosol optical thickness, AOT, and Angstrom exponent). The results were available via web access. The location and movement information provided by these data were used both in support of the day-to-day flight planning of ACE-Asia and as input into aerosol transport models. While near real-time SeaWiFS data processing can be performed using either the normal global data product or data obtained via direct broadcast to receiving stations close to the area of interest, near real-time MODIS processing of data to provide aerosol retrievals is currently only available using its direct broadcast capability. In this paper, we will briefly discuss the algorithms used to generate these data. The retrieved aerosol optical thickness and Angstrom exponent from SeaWiFS will be compared with those obtained from various AERONET sites over the Asian-Pacific region. The TOMS aerosol index will also be compared with AERONET aerosol optical thickness over different aerosol conditions, and comparisons between the MODIS and SeaWiFS data will also be presented. Finally, we will discuss the climate implication of our studies using the combined satellite and AERONET observations.

Hsu, N. Christina↗