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DOE OSTI2021

A consistent, Bayesian, approach to the cross section probability distribution in the unresolved resonance region

The cross sections of neutron-induced reactions can be divided into three energy ranges: the resolved resonance region (RRR), the unresolved resonance region (URR), and the fast region. In general, the cross sections in the URR show significant fluctuations that cannot be predicted and cannot be experimentally resolved, thus, it is commonly assumed that the cross section at a specific energy is given by a probability distribution function (PDF) over a range of values that can span several orders of magnitude. The current methodology used to describe such behavior is to construct the PDF by stochastically generating resonance ladders and numerically measuring the PDF. The resonance ladders are sampled using known resonance statistical properties and average resonance widths and spacings extrapolated from the RRR. Although this is a standard and widely used technique, it is computationally very expensive, therefore, an alternative, analytical, approach would be preferable due to the considerable speed up of the computational time in real life applications. Moreover, the current methodology does not take into account existing experimental data, such for total and capture cross sections, that are available for many nuclei. Finally, this approach was developed to be used in reactor-scale applications and it is not suited for use in single-event applications. In this work we will rethink the entire approach to the PDF construction using a Bayesian mindset. This will allow us to provide a different definition of the PDF that allows a much faster calculation of the higher-temperature PDFs and a proper combination of theoretical and experimental PDFs following the probability theory. We will also show that our definition is well suited for single-event applications and we will make an explicit connection between our method and the standard approach. We do this by showing that the central limit theorem applies and our method leads to the same PDF obtained with the standard methodology, for a large number of events per history.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Robust Measurement of Stellar Streams around the Milky Way: Correcting Spatially Variable Observational Selection Effects in Optical Imaging Surveys

Observations of density variations in stellar streams are a promising probe of low-mass dark matter substructure in the Milky Way. However, survey systematics such as variations in seeing and sky brightness can also induce artificial fluctuations in the observed densities of known stellar streams. These variations arise because survey conditions affect both object detection and star–galaxy misclassification rates. To mitigate these effects, we use Balrog synthetic source injections in the Dark Energy Survey (DES) Y3 data to calculate detection rate variations and classification rates as functions of survey properties. We show that these rates are nearly separable with respect to survey properties and can be estimated with sufficient statistics from the synthetic catalogs. Applying these corrections reduces the standard deviation of relative detection rates across the DES footprint by a factor of 5, and our corrections significantly change the inferred linear density of the Phoenix stream when including faint objects. Additionally, for artificial streams with DES-like survey properties we are able to recover density power spectra with reduced bias. We also find that uncorrected power-spectrum results for Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST)-like data can be around 5 times more biased, highlighting the need for such corrections in future ground-based surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2010

X-Ray Variation Statistics and Wind Clumping in Vela X-1

We investigate the structure of the wind in the neutron star X-ray binary system Vela X-1 by analyzing its flaring behavior. Vela X-1 shows constant flaring, with some flares reaching fluxes of more than 3.0 Crab between 20-60 keV for several 100 seconds, while the average flux is around 250 mCrab. We analyzed all archival INTEGRAL data, calculating the brightness distribution in the 20-60 keV band, which, as we show, closely follows a log-normal distribution. Orbital resolved analysis shows that the structure is strongly variable, explainable by shocks and a fluctuating accretion wake. Analysis of RXTE ASM data suggests a strong orbital change of N. Accreted clump masses derived from the INTEGRAL data are on the order of 5 x 10(exp 19)-10(exp 21) g. We show that the lightcurve can be described with a model of multiplicative random numbers. In the course of the simulation we calculate the power spectral density of the system in the 20-100 keV energy band and show that it follows a red-noise power law. We suggest that a mixture of a clumpy wind, shocks, and turbulence can explain the measured mass distribution. As the recently discovered class of supergiant fast X-ray transients (SFXT) seems to show the same parameters for the wind, the link between persistent HMXB like Vela X-1 and SFXT is further strengthened.

Furst, Felix↗

DOE OSTI2022

Kinetic modeling of neutral transport for a continuum gyrokinetic code

In this work we present the first-of-its-kind coupling of a continuum full- f gyrokinetic turbulence model with a 6D continuum model for kinetic neutrals, carried out using the Gkeyll code. Our objective is to improve the first-principle understanding of the role of neutrals in plasma fueling, detachment, and their interaction with edge plasma profiles and turbulence statistics. Our model includes only atomic hydrogen and incorporates electron-impact ionization, charge exchange, and wall recycling. These features have been successfully verified with analytical predictions and benchmarked with the DEGAS2 Monte Carlo neutral code. We carry out simulations for a scrape-off layer (SOL) with simplified geometry and National Spherical Torus Experiment parameters. We compare these results to a baseline simulation without neutrals and find that neutral interactions reduce the normalized density fluctuation levels and associated skewness and kurtosis, while increasing auto-correlation times. A flatter density profile is also observed, similar to the SOL density shoulder formation in experimental scenarios with high fueling.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Tuning nonequilibrium phase transitions with inertia

In striking contrast to equilibrium systems, inertia can profoundly alter the structure of active systems. Here, we demonstrate that driven systems can exhibit effective equilibrium-like states with increasing particle inertia, despite rigorously violating the fluctuation–dissipation theorem. Increasing inertia progressively eliminates motility-induced phase separation and restores equilibrium crystallization for active Brownian spheres. This effect appears to be general for a wide class of active systems, including those driven by deterministic time-dependent external fields, whose nonequilibrium patterns ultimately disappear with increasing inertia. The path to this effective equilibrium limit can be complex, with finite inertia sometimes acting to accentuate nonequilibrium transitions. The restoration of near equilibrium statistics can be understood through the conversion of active momentum sources to passive-like stresses. Unlike truly equilibrium systems, the effective temperature is now density dependent, the only remnant of the nonequilibrium dynamics. Further, this density-dependent temperature can in principle introduce departures from equilibrium expectations, particularly in response to strong gradients. Our results provide additional insight into the effective temperature ansatz while revealing a mechanism to tune nonequilibrium phase transitions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2026

Generalized master equation for particle transport in binary random media with renewal statistics

Particle transport in binary stochastic mixtures is classically modeled assuming Markovian or exponential mixing statistics but in many applications material memory invalidates the Markov assumption. For non-Markovian mixing characterized by alternating renewal processes, a transport-theoretic framework is presented that provides an exact description of transport in nonscattering random binary media with general non-exponential statistics. Our approach is to Markovianize the problem by augmenting the {material type, particle flux} state space with the age or distance from the last interface. A Chapman-Kolmogorov equation is formulated for the joint probability density of the material type, particle flux, and age, and subsequently reduced to a generalized Master equation (GME) in differential form. This constitutes the primary result of this work. A state-updating Monte Carlo algorithm consistent with the GME is developed and benchmarked against analytical solutions for multiple chord-length laws. For purely absorbing renewal statistical media, the GME reproduces analytical benchmarks for the equilibrium age distribution, interior mean/variance of material-conditioned fluxes, and boundary transmittance. Simulations further demonstrate that a Markov (exponential) approximation of non-exponential statistics can introduce large errors in transmittance and interior flux profiles. Lastly, the reintroduction of memory due to scattering is briefly addressed through heuristic considerations.

Fluctuations & noise↗

NASA NTRS1993

Major episodes of geologic change - Correlations, time structure and possible causes

Published data sets of major geologic events of the past about 250 Myr (extinction events, sea-level lows, continental flood-basalt eruptions, mountain-building events, abrupt changes in sea-floor spreading, ocean-anoxic and blackshale events and the largest evaporite deposits) have been synthesized (with estimated errors). These events show evidence for a statistically significant periodic component with an underlying periodicity, formally equal to 26.6 Myr, and a recent maximum, close to the present time. The cycle may not be strictly periodic, but a periodicity of about 30 Myr is robust to probable errors in dating of the geologic events. The intervals of geologic change seem to involve jumps in sea-floor spreading associated with episodic continental rifting, volcanism, enhanced orogeny, global sea-level changes and fluctuations in climate. The period may represent a purely internal earth-pulsation, but evidence of planetesimal impacts at several extinction boundaries, and a possible underlying cycle of 28-36 Myr in crater ages, suggests that highly energetic impacts may be affecting global tectonics. A cyclic increase in the flux of planetesimals might result from the passage of the Solar System through the central plane of the Milky Way Galaxy - an event with a periodicity and mean phasing similar to that detected in the geologic changes.

Rampino, Michael R.↗

NASA NTRS2012

The Atacama Cosmology Telescope: Data Characterization and Map Making

We present a description of the data reduction and mapmaking pipeline used for the 2008 observing season of the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT). The data presented here at 148 GHz represent 12% or the 90 TB collected by ACT from 2007 to 2010. In 2008 we observed for 136 days, producing a total of 142h of data (11 TB for the 148 GHz band only), with a daily average of 10.5 h of observation. From these, 108.5 h were devoted to 850 sq deg stripe (11.2 h by 9 deg.1) centered on a declination of -52 deg.7, while 175 h were devoted to a 280 square deg stripe (4.5 h by 4 deg.8) centered at the celestial equator. We discuss sources of statistical and systematic noise, calibration, telescope pointing and data selection. Out of 1260 survey hours and 1024 detectors per array, 816 h and 593 effective detectors remain after data selection for this frequency band, yielding a 38 % survey efficiency. The total sensitivity in 2008, determined from the noise level between 5 Hz and 20 Hz in the time-ordered data stream (TOD), is 32 muK square root of s in CMB units. Atmospheric brightness fluctuations constitute the main contaminant in the data and dominate the detector and noise covariance at low frequencies in the TOD. The maps were made by solving the lease squares problem using the Preconditioned Conjugate Gradient method, incorporating the details of the detector and noise correlations. Cross-correlation with WMAP sky maps as well as analysis from simulations reveal the our maps are unbiased at l > 300. This paper accompanies the public release of the 148 GHz southern stripe maps from 2008. The techniques described here will be applied to future maps and data releases.

Duenner, Rolando↗

DOE OSTI2023

Deep Learning Parameterization of Vertical Wind Velocity Variability via Constrained Adversarial Training

Atmospheric models with typical resolution in the tenths of kilometers cannot resolve the dynamics of air parcel ascent, which varies on scales ranging from tens to hundreds of meters. Small-scale wind fluctuations are thus characterized by a subgrid distribution of vertical wind velocity W with standard deviation σ W . The parameterization of σ W is fundamental to the representation of aerosol–cloud interactions, yet it is poorly constrained. Using a novel deep learning technique, this work develops a new parameterization for σ W merging data from global storm-resolving model simulations, high-frequency retrievals of W , and climate reanalysis products. The parameterization reproduces the observed statistics of σ W and leverages learned physical relations from the model simulations to guide extrapolation beyond the observed domain. Incorporating observational data during the training phase was found to be critical for its performance. The parameterization can be applied online within large-scale atmospheric models, or offline using output from weather forecasting and reanalysis products.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1985

Shock and statistical acceleration of energetic particles in the interplanetary medium

Definite evidence for particle acceleration in the solar wind came around a decade ago. Two likely sources are known to exist: particles may be accelerated by the turbulence resulting from the superposition of Alfven and Magnetosonic waves (Statistical Acceleration) or they may be accelerated directly at shock fronts formed by the interaction of fast and slow solar wind (CIR's) or by traveling shocks due to sporadic coronal mass ejections. Naurally both mechanisms may be operative. In this work the acceleration problem was tackled numerically using Helios 1 and 2 data to create a realistic representation of the Heliospheric plasma. Two 24 hour samples were used: one where there are only wave like fluctuations of the field (Day 90 Helios 1) and another with a shock present in it (Day 92 of Helios 2) both in 1976 during the STIP 2 interval. Transport coefficients in energy space have been calculated for particles injected in each sample and the effect of the shock studied in detail.

Valdes-Galicia, J. F.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Coherent structures in stably stratified wall-bounded turbulent flows

To date, a growing body of literature has documented the existence and impacts of coherent structures known as large- and very-large-scale motions within wall-bounded turbulent flows under neutral and unstable thermal stratification. These coherent structures can account for a considerable fraction of the overall turbulent transport and have been found to modulate small-scale turbulent fluctuations near the wall. In the context of stably stratified flows, however, the examination of such coherent structures has garnered relatively little attention. Stable stratification limits vertical transport and turbulent mixing within flows, which makes it unclear the extent to which previous findings on coherent structures under unstable and neutral stratification are applicable to stably stratified flows. In this study, we investigate the existence and characteristics of coherent structures under stable stratification with a wide range of statistical and spectral analyses. Outer peaks in premultiplied spectrograms under weak stability indicate the presence of large-scale motions, but these peaks become weaker and eventually vanish with increasing stability. Quadrant analysis of turbulent transport efficiencies (the ratio of net fluxes to their respective downgradient components) demonstrates dependencies on both stability and height above ground, which is evidence of morphological differences in the coherent structures under increasing stability. Amplitude modulation by large-scale streamwise velocity was found to decrease with increasing gradient Richardson number, whereas modulation by large-scale vertical velocity was approximately zero across all stability ranges. For sufficiently stable stratification, large eddies are suppressed enough to limit any inner–outer scale interactions.

Greene, Brian R. (ORCID:0000000343766818)↗

NASA NTRS1994

Multifractal characterizations of nonstationarity and intermittency in geophysical fields: Observed, retrieved, or simulated

Geophysical data rarely show any smoothness at any scale, and this often makes comparison with theoretical model output difficult. However, highly fluctuating signals and fractal structures are typical of open dissipative systems with nonlinear dynamics, the focus of most geophysical research. High levels of variability are excited over a large range of scales by the combined actions of external forcing and internal instability. At very small scales we expect geophysical fields to be smooth, but these are rarely resolved with available instrumentation or simulation tools; nondifferentiable and even discontinuous models are therefore in order. We need methods of statistically analyzing geophysical data, whether measured in situ, remotely sensed or even generated by a computer model, that are adapted to these characteristics. An important preliminary task is to define statistically stationary features in generally nonstationary signals. We first discuss a simple criterion for stationarity in finite data streams that exhibit power law energy spectra and then, guided by developments in turbulence studies, we advocate the use of two ways of analyzing the scale dependence of statistical information: singular measures and qth order structure functions. In nonstationary situations, the approach based on singular measures seeks power law behavior in integrals over all possible scales of a nonnegative stationary field derived from the data, leading to a characterization of the intermittency in this (gradient-related) field. In contrast, the approach based on structure functions uses the signal itself, seeking power laws for the statistical moments of absolute increments over arbitrarily large scales, leading to a characterization of the prevailing nonstationarity in both quantitative and qualitative terms. We explain graphically, step by step, both multifractal statistics which are largely complementary to each other. The geometrical manifestations of nonstationarity and intermittency, 'roughness' and 'sparseness', respectively, are illustrated and the associated analytical (differentiability and continuity) properties are discussed. As an example, the two techniques are applied to a series of recent measurements of liquid water distributions inside marine stratocumulus decks; these are found to be multifractal over scales ranging from approximately 60 m to approximately 60 km. Finally, we define the 'mean multifractal plane' and show it to be a simple yet comprehensive tool with many applications including data intercomparison, (dynamical or stochastic) model and retrieval validations.

Davis, Anthony↗

DOE OSTI2022

Direct numerical simulation of hypersonic turbulent boundary layers: effect of spatial evolution and Reynolds number

Direct numerical simulations (DNS) are performed to investigate the spatial evolution of flat-plate zero-pressure-gradient turbulent boundary layers over long streamwise domains ( >300δ i , with δ i the inflow boundary-layer thickness) at three different Mach numbers, 2.5, 4.9 and 10.9, with the surface temperatures ranging from quasiadiabatic to highly cooled conditions. The settlement of turbulence statistics into a fully developed equilibrium state of the turbulent boundary layer has been carefully monitored, either based on the satisfaction of the von Kármán integral equation or by comparing runs with different inflow turbulence generation techniques. The generated DNS database is used to characterize the streamwise evolution of multiple important variables in the high-Mach-number, cold-wall regime, including the skin friction, the Reynolds analogy factor, the shape factor, the Reynolds stresses, and the fluctuating wall quantities. The data confirm the validity of many classic and newer compressibility transformations at moderately high Reynolds numbers (up to friction Reynolds number Re τ ≈1200 ) and show that, with proper scaling, the sizes of the near-wall streaks and superstructures are insensitive to the Mach number and wall cooling conditions. The strong wall cooling in the hypersonic cold-wall case is found to cause a significant increase in the size of the near-wall turbulence eddies (relative to the boundary-layer thickness), which leads to a reduced-scale separation between the large and small turbulence scales, and in turn to a lack of an outer peak in the spanwise spectra of the streamwise velocity in the logarithmic region.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

NASA NTRS1993

Results from a study of scintillation behavior at 12, 20, and 30 GHz using the results from the Virginia Tech Olympus receivers

Tropospheric scintillations are rapid fluctuations of signal caused by multiple scattering from the small scale turbulent refractive index inhomogeneities in the troposphere. They can strongly impair satellite communications links operating at frequency above 10 GHz. The VA Tech OLYMPUS propagation experiment which includes 12, 20, and 30 GHz beacon receivers at an elevation angle of 14 degrees provides us with valuable multifrequency scintillation data. A long term analysis of tropospheric scintillation results from the VA Tech OLYMPUS experiment is presented. It includes statistics of both the scintillation intensity and the attenuation relative to clear air as well as seasonal, diurnal and meteorological trends. A comparison with the Consultative Committee for International Radio (CCIR) predictive model for scintillation fading is presented.

Pratt, Timothy↗

NASA NTRS1998

Equatorial Density Irregularity Structures at Intermediate Scales and Their Temporal Evolution

We examine high resolution measurements of ion density in the equatorial ionosphere from the AE-E satellite during the years 1977-1981. Structure over spatial scales from 18 km to 200 m is characterized by the spectrum of irregularities at larger and smaller scales and at altitudes above 350 km and below 300 km. In the low-altitude region, only small amplitude large-scale (lambda greater than 5 km) density modulations are often observed, and thus the power spectrum of these density structures exhibits a steep spectral slope at kilometer scales. In the high-altitude region, sinusoidal density fluctuations, characterized by enhanced power near 1-km scale, are frequently observed during 2000-0200 LT. However, such fluctuations are confined to regions at the edges of larger bubble structures where the average background density is high. Small amplitude irregularity structures, observed at early local time hours, grow rapidly to high-intensity structures in about 90 min. Fully developed structures, which are observed at late local time hours, decay very slowly producing only-small differences in spectral characteristics even 4 hours later. The local time evolution of irregularity structure is investigated by using average statistics for low-(1% less than sigma less than 5%) and high-intensity (sigma greater than 10%) structures. At lower altitudes, little chance in the spectral slope is seen as a function of local time, while at higher attitudes the growth and maintenance of structures near 1 km scales dramatically affects the spectral slope.

Kil, Hyosub↗

NASA NTRS2017

The Net Decay Time of Anomalies in Concentrations of Atmospheric Pollutants

This paper introduces a new parameter to characterize the random component in temporal variability of atmospheric pollutants and proposes a simple statistical technique for its evaluation. That parameter is the net decay time (or the time scale) of the local anomalies in concentrations of atmospheric pollutants, rather than the traditionally used chemical lifetimes of total amounts of the species. Using widely available data of hourly multi-year surface trace gas pollutant concentrations we demonstrate a simplified way to estimate the net decay time with an exponential approximation of lag-correlation functions. We assessed the decay times of fluctuations in observations of eight atmospheric pollutants (SO2, NO, NO2, NOy, O3, CO, NH3, and HNO3) at two urban sites and one cleaner rural site in the Eastern US. The time scales of temporal fluctuations (net decay times) vary from about one hour to slightly more than one day. These scales are generally much shorter in urban environments than in remote regions. We also compared day- and night-time observations in warm and cold seasons. At night in the cold season, time scales of fluctuations in atmospheric pollutants are usually the longest. Such estimates should be useful to air quality prediction, public health, and satellite remote sensing research communities.

air quality prediction↗

DOE OSTI2024

Challenges of measuring spin Seebeck noise

Just as electronic shot noise in driven conductors results from the granularity of charge and the statistical variation in the arrival times of charge carriers, there are predictions for fundamental noise in magnon currents due to angular momentum being carried by discrete excitations. The inverse spin Hall effect as a transduction mechanism to convert spin current into charge current raises the prospect of experimental investigations of such magnon shot noise. Spin Seebeck effect measurements have demonstrated the electrical detection of thermally driven magnon currents and have been suggested as an avenue for accessing spin current fluctuations. Using spin Seebeck structures made from yttrium iron garnet on gadolinium gallium garnet, we demonstrate the technical challenges inherent in such noise measurements. While there is a small increase in voltage noise in the inverse spin Hall detector at low temperatures associated with adding a magnetic field, the dependence on field orientation implies that this is not due to magnon shot noise. We describe theoretical predictions for the expected magnitude of magnon shot noise, highlighting ambiguities that exist. Further, we show that magnon shot noise detection through the standard inverse spin Hall approach is likely impossible due to geometric factors. Implications for future attempts to measure magnon shot noise are discussed.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

NASA NTRS1996

Multiwavelength Comparison of Modeled and Measured Remote Tropospheric Aerosol Backscatter Over Pacific Ocean

Aerosol concentrations and size distributions in the middle and upper troposphere over the remote Pacific Ocean were measured with a forward scattering spectrometer probe (FSSP) on the NASA DC-8 aircraft during NASA's Global Backscatter Experiment (GLOBE) in May-June 1990. The FSSP size channels were recalibrated based on refractive index estimates from flight-level aerosol volatility measurements with a collocated laser optical particle counter (LOPC). The recalibrated FSSP size distributions were averaged over 100-s intervals, fitted with lo-normal distributions and used to calculate aerosol backscatter coefficients at selected wavelengths. The FSSP-derived backscatter estimates were averaged over 300-s intervals to reduce large random fluctuations. The smoothed FSSP aerosol backscatter coefficients were then compared with LOPC-derived backscatter values and with backscatter measured at or near flight level from four lidar systems operating at 0.53, 1.06, 9.11, 9.25, and 10.59 micrometers. Agreement between FSSP-derived and lidar-measured backscatter was generally best at flight level in homogeneous aerosol fields and at high backscatter values. FSSP data often underestimated low backscatter values especially at the longer wavelengths due to poor counting statistics for larger particles (greater than 0.8 micrometers diameter) that usually dominate aerosol backscatter at these wavelengths. FSSP data also underestimated backscatter at shorter wavelengths when particles smaller than the FSSP lower cutoff diameter (0.35 micrometers) made significant contributions to the total backscatter.

Cutten, D. R.↗