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DOE OSTI2020

Gravitational Waves from Neutrino Emission Asymmetries in Core-collapse Supernovae

We present a broadband spectrum of gravitational waves (GWs) from core-collapse supernovae (CCSNe) sourced by neutrino emission asymmetries for a series of full 3D simulations. The associated GW strain probes the long-term secular evolution of CCSNe and small-scale turbulent activity and provides insight into the geometry of the explosion. For nonexploding models, both the neutrino luminosity and the neutrino gravitational waveform will encode information about the spiral SASI. The neutrino memory will be detectable for a wide range of progenitor masses for a galactic event. Our results can be used to guide near-future decihertz and long-baseline GW detection programs, including aLIGO, the Einstein Telescope, and DECIGO.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2024

Lambda-PFLOTRAN 1.0: a workflow for incorporating organic matter chemistry informed by ultra high resolution mass spectrometry into biogeochemical modeling

Abstract. Organic matter (OM) composition plays a central role in microbial respiration of dissolved organic matter and subsequent biogeochemical reactions. Here, a direct connection of organic matter chemistry and thermodynamics to reactive transport simulators has been achieved through the newly developed Lambda-PFLOTRAN workflow tool that succinctly incorporates carbon chemistry data generated from Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FTICR-MS) into reaction networks to simulate organic matter degradation and the resulting biogeochemistry. Lambda-PFLOTRAN is a Python-based workflow, executed through a Jupyter notebook interface, that digests raw FTICR-MS data, develops a representative reaction network based on substrate-explicit thermodynamic modeling (also termed lambda modeling due to its key thermodynamic parameter λ used therein), and completes a biogeochemical simulation with the open source, reactive flow and transport code PFLOTRAN. The workflow consists of the following five steps: configuration, thermodynamic (lambda) analysis, sensitivity analysis, parameter estimation, and simulation output and visualization. Two test cases are provided to demonstrate the functionality of the Lambda-PFLOTRAN workflow. The first test case uses laboratory incubation data of temporal oxygen depletion to fit lambda parameters (i.e., maximum utilization rate and microbial carrying capacity). A slightly more complex second test case fits multiple lambda formulation and soil organic matter release parameters to temporal greenhouse gas generation measured during a soil incubation. Overall, the Lambda-PFLOTRAN workflow facilitates upscaling by using molecular-scale characterization to inform biogeochemical processes occurring at larger scales.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Reduced Order Models for Liquid Hydrogen Pooling and Vaporization Supported by Experiments

In the event of a leak of liquid hydrogen, a pool can form that vaporizes, disperses, and eventually dilutes to a non-flammable mixture. In this work, we describe fast-running models for the pooling and vaporization of liquid hydrogen in a steady cross-wind. Several pooling models from the literature are compared to solve for the flow and extent of the pool. The size of the pool can serve as the source for a separate dispersion model, which builds upon the existing one-dimensional Gaussian plume model in HyRAM+. Additional terms for the effects of a cross-wind on momentum and entrainment were added so that the model could handle the effects of a cross-wind on a low-speed flow. The models are compared to experimental data on pooling extent and downwind dispersion for steady flow rates of liquid hydrogen in a steady cross-wind. In the two compared experiments, liquid flow rates of 15 and 45 g/s were spilled onto concrete in cross-winds of approximately 1.8 m/s. The rate of growth of the pool and the downwind concentration boundaries are compared to the models, showing good agreement, although additional tuning is needed. These models can contribute to the advancement of codes and standards for liquid hydrogen systems.

dispersion↗

DOE OSTI2020

Graphite Baseline Status

Subtask Relevancy Inherent variation exists in nuclear-grade graphite due to processing techniques and raw material sources Comprehensive graphite properties database does not exist that fully establishes physical and mechanical property relationships Predictability of long-term behavior in a nuclear environment requires full analysis of variability Technical Approach, Accomplishments/Results Perform comprehensive mechanical and physical properties testing to populate a fully-validated database Grade selection is based upon candidate graphites from four international suppliers 15,000+ property values measured to date Physical properties testing that is based upon AGC geometries is a key component to establishing baseline/AGC data link

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Recent Advances in Pipeline Integrity for Transporting Blended Hydrogen-Natural Gas

To achieve US decarbonization goals, hydrogen is being considered as an alternative energy source to reduce carbon emissions. Blending hydrogen into existing natural gas pipelines is an intuitive first step to enable near term emission reductions. However, there are numerous challenges and uncertainties that complicate the transition to transporting hydrogen long-distance through existing natural gas pipelines. The main challenge is hydrogen embrittlement (HE), which reduces the ductility, fracture toughness and fatigue resistance of pipeline steels. This work delivers a technical review on HE effects on the material properties of pipeline carbon steels, such as Grade B, X52, X65, X70, X80, and X100. An important aspect of laboratory tests to capture the HE effect is the hydrogen test environment. This includes hydrogen pre-charged specimens tested in air and specimens tested in a hydrogen gas environment. A review of the mechanical properties of pipeline steel in different hydrogen environments determined through tensile testing is given first, which includes HE effects on yield strength, ultimate tensile strength, and ductility for blended hydrogen-natural gas pipelines. Then, the HE effects on fracture toughness and fatigue crack growth resistance are discussed. Last, impacts of HE to pipeline integrity and major technical challenges are discussed.

: Hydrogen Embrittlement↗

DOE OSTI2026

Continual Learning for Production-Level Machine Learning in Particle Accelerators

Particle accelerators operate in complex environments where data distribution can change dynamically, leading to data drifts that significantly challenge Machine Learning (ML) models. These non-stationary conditions often cause ML models to deteriorate in performance, making it difficult to maintain reliable predictions in operation. The primary sources of data drifts are changes in accelerator settings and changes in equipment performance which cannot be measured directly. To bridge this gap between ML development and long-term deployment in operational settings, we identify key areas within particle accelerators where continual learning can help mitigate drift-induced performance degradation. We will provide a practical guide on selecting the appropriate method given resource constraints and desired stability plasticity trade offs. As a concrete example, we will present a real-world use case for anomaly detection to predict errant beams at the Spallation Neutron Source accelerator, where continual learning has been employed to demonstrate stable performance on drifting data streams. We will present practical challenges, lessons learned, and the results from the deployed ML model.

Rajput, Kishansingh [Thomas Jefferson National Acc↗

DOE OSTI2023

What is the long-term demand for liquid hydrocarbon fuels and feedstocks?

Liquid hydrocarbons made from crude oil serve many functions: (1) a dense, easy-to-store, easy-to-transport energy source, (2) a method for daily-to-seasonal energy storage, (3) a chemical feedstock, (4) a chemical reducing agent and (5) a method to enhance high-temperature heat transfer in many furnaces and industrial processes. Liquid hydrocarbons can be produced and used without increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels if made from non-fossil feedstocks such as carbon dioxide or biomass. Understanding future liquid hydrocarbon demand is the starting point in assessing the viability of such options. Our assessment is that U.S. demand for liquid hydrocarbons is unlikely to go below the equivalent of 10 million barrels per day of crude oil but could be as high as 20 million barrels per day. The costs to replace liquid hydrocarbons increases rapidly at lower liquid hydrocarbon consumption rates. Hydrocarbon biofuels from cellulosic feedstocks can meet such demands if produced with large external inputs of heat and hydrogen. Options based on more limited feedstocks (starches, plant oils, sugars, etc.) can’t meet such demands.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2025

How initial conditions-, structural-, and parameter-based model uncertainty interact and influence predictions in permafrost ecosystems: Modeling Archive

This dataset contains model output and input data, as well as source code examples for the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model with the Dynamic Vegetation Model and Dynamic Organic Soil (DVM-DOS-TEM) for the field sites Imnavait creek and the Bonanza creek Long Term Ecological Research Network (LTER). The data covers simulations from the last glacial maximum (LGM) until 2100 for a selection of paleo scenarios, setting the mean temperature of the LGM up to 10°C lower than pre-industrial conditions. The model structure was modulated to represent various model versions, and this dataset contains the relevant changes in the source code. The raw output data, the processed statistical data, the setup and processing scripts as well as parameter value distribution files from a parameter sensitivity analysis are included as well. Model outputs include active layer depth, organic soil carbon, soil layer depths, gross primary productivity (GPP) with and without nitrogen limitation, net primary productivity (NPP), soil liquid water content, heterotrophic, maintenance, and growth respiration, soil temperature, and vegetation carbon (*.nc files). The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments in the Arctic (NGEE Arctic) project is a research effort to reduce uncertainty in the Department of Energy’s Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) by developing a predictive understanding of Arctic tundra ecosystems underlain by permafrost and to quantify feedbacks from the Arctic tundra to the Earth system. NGEE Arctic is supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research.Over Phases 1–3, observations made by the NGEE Arctic team across a gradient of permafrost landscapes in Arctic Alaska improved the representation of tundra processes in the land surface component of E3SM (the E3SM Land Model, ELM). Model improvements emphasized unique aspects of permafrost environments and explored reductions in model complexity while retaining predictive power. The Arctic-informed ELM developed by NGEE Arctic has been used to make novel predictions on processes ranging from permafrost thaw to soil biogeochemical cycling to Earth system feedbacks associated with the unique characteristics of tundra plants. In Phase 4, the NGEE Arctic team is evaluating our new predictive understanding under novel conditions across the Arctic domain. In collaboration with partners at long-term pan-Arctic research sites we are examining whether an Arctic-informed ELM can faithfully simulate interactions among surface and subsurface processes at site, regional, and pan-Arctic scales. In turn, we are using variety of tools to dynamically extend and evaluate ELM inference, with an emphasis on data synthesis and pan-Arctic model evaluation, reintegration of code with an evolving E3SM, scaling across heterogeneous Arctic landscapes, and the appropriate representation of the impacts of increasingly frequent Arctic disturbances.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Analysis and Planning Framework for Nuclear Plant Transformation

Commercial nuclear power in the United States has been an unqualified success by any measure, providing low cost, carbon-free, and safe baseload electricity for decades. The industry today is at the peak of its historical performance in terms of generation output, reliable operations, and demonstrated nuclear safety. However, it is no longer among the lowest-cost electric generation sources with the emergence of subsidized renewables and shale gas generation. The business model that has served the operating nuclear fleet so well over its life is now a drag on cost performance due to its reliance on a large highly skilled labor force. In contrast, digital technology and innovation are enabling dramatic efficiencies in energy production, resulting in fierce competition for a commodity such as electricity. The nuclear power industry has responded to this challenge with many initiatives to improve efficiency and modernize plant equipment, especially where reliability and obsolescence issues are pressing. However, it would be a missed opportunity to merely modernize the plant components and the work processes of an outdated business model that was formulated to manage the technology of the 1960s. Rather, the greater opportunity is to transform that business model to one that fully exploits the capabilities of modern digital technology, resulting in substantially lower production costs and sustainable market viability. One successful example of such transformation is the concept of Integrated Operations, which was introduced into the North Sea oil and gas industry a couple of decades ago when the profitability of operating these fields was severely threatened by low world petroleum prices and the high overhead of operating the offshore oil and gas platforms. This effort resulted in significant changes to how these oil fields were operated and allowed the industry to continue profitable operation of these platforms. This example has some remarkable parallels to the U.S. commercial nuclear industry as described in the next section. This report provides an analysis and planning framework for such a nuclear plant operating model transformation based on the transferable learnings from the North Sea transformation. This framework is termed Integrated Operations for Nuclear or ION. This report describes the key principles and methods of Integrated Operations and how they are being applied in a collaboration between the DOE Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program and Xcel Energy in an initiative to transform its operating model for performance improvement and long-term sustainability. It describes a method to bring the operating costs of a nuclear fleet in line with market-based pricing, transforming work functions to reduce cost with technology innovations. This initiative will continue over the next several years in the detailed development of transformative concepts for nuclear plants, which will be published as follow-up to this initial report on Integrated Operations for Nuclear.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Open Source Platform for Live Processing of High Data Rate Electron Microscopy (SBIR Phase I Award Topic 15, Subtopic B, Final Scientific / Technical Report)

4D scanning transmission electron microscopy (STEM) is experiencing a revolution both in terms of data size, and data veracity, as are many other areas of experimental data acquisition. This presents enormous opportunities to make new scientific discoveries, but is also hamstrung by aging software that is no longer fit for purpose. Experimental data acquisition platforms must make the same investments in software infrastructure that the simulation community made decades ago to take advantage of high-performance computing (HPC) if they hope to realize the full potential of the latest advances made in detector technology. This requires rethinking the design and deployment of hardware, moving away from small, fixed commodity computing capabilities with closed interfaces to open, modular, scalable systems designed for parallelism and throughput. The technical approach will leverage best-in-class open source technologies, and develop new approaches strategically to build an open source platform for experimental data acquisition targeting high data rate electron microscopy. The project will develop a software platform that uses the power and performance of modern HPC resources to ingest the large volume of data produced by electron microscopes using direct electron detectors. A set of configurable pipelines will be used to enable the processing to be tailored to the problem being investigated with builtin visualization of data at interactive rates. This project will leverage investments made by the DOE and other agencies to provide a powerful software platform for the experimental data community working with most powerful electron microscopes, such as 4D STEM detectors. It will create a platform that serves as a reference for the community. Permissive open source licensing will make the platform available to all, with a simple deployment strategy offering the ability to keep data close to where it is generated. This advanced software platform will require customization for each deployment, creating opportunities for software services that are typically offered to extend open source software platforms.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Fourteen Years of Energetic Neutral Atom Observations from IBEX

The Interstellar Boundary Explorer (IBEX) has been observing the outer heliosphere and its interactions with the very local interstellar medium (VLISM) via measurements of energetic neutral atoms (ENAs) for over 14 yr. We discovered the IBEX Ribbon—a structure completely unanticipated by any prior theory or model—that almost certainly resides beyond the heliopause in the VLISM. We also characterized the other major source of heliospheric ENAs, the globally distributed flux (GDF), produced largely in the heliosheath between the termination shock and heliopause. In this study, we make three major new contributions. First, we validate, provide, and analyze the most recent 3 yr of IBEX-Hi (0.5–6 keV FWHM) data (2020–2022) for the first time. Second, we link these observations to the prior 11 yr of observations, exploring long-term variations. Finally, we provide the first IBEX team-validated Ribbon/GDF separation scheme and separated maps. Because of the uncertainty in separating different line-of-sight integrated sources, we provide not just best guess (median) maps, but also maps with upper and lower reasonable values of Ribbon and GDF fluxes, along with bounding fluxes that add the uncertainties to the upper and lower values. This allows theories and models to be compared with a range of possible values that the IBEX team believes are consistent with data. These observations, along with the reanalysis of the prior 11 yr of IBEX-Hi data, provide new insights and even further develop our detailed understanding of the heliosphere’s interaction with the local interstellar medium unlocked by IBEX.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

A general spatial-temporal framework for short-term building temperature forecasting at arbitrary locations with crowdsourcing weather data

Weather forecasting has been a critical component to predict and control building energy consumption for better building energy management. Without accessibility to other data sources, the onsite observed temperatures or the airport temperatures are used in forecast models. In this paper, we present a novel approach by utilizing the crowdsourcing weather data from neighboring personal weather stations (PWS) to improve the weather forecast accuracy around buildings using a general spatial-temporal modeling framework. The final forecast is based on the ensemble of local forecasts for the target location using neighboring PWSs. Our approach is distinguished from existing literature in various aspects. First, we leverage the crowdsourcing weather data from PWS in addition to public data sources. In this way, the data is at much finer time resolution (e.g., at 5-minute frequency) and spatial resolution (e.g., arbitrary location vs grid). Second, our proposed model incorporates spatial-temporal correlation information of weather variables between the target building and a set of neighboring PWSs so that underlying correlations can be effectively captured to improve forecasting performance. Here, we demonstrate the performance of the proposed framework by comparing to the benchmark models on temperature forecasting for a building located at an arbitrary location at San Antonio, Texas, USA. In general, the proposed model framework equipped with machine learning technique such as Random Forest can improve forecasting by 50% compares with persistent model and has 90% chance to outperform airport forecast in short-term forecasting. In a real-time setting, the proposed model framework can provide more accurate temperature forecasting results compared with using airport temperature forecast for most forecast horizon. Moreover, we analyze the sensitivity of model parameters to gain insights on how crowdsourcing data from the neighboring personal weather stations impacts forecasting performance. Finally, we implement our model in other cities such as Syracuse and Chicago to test the model's performance in different landforms and climate types.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Performance Considerations for Ground Source Heat Pumps in Cold Climates: Preprint

Remote, cold climates present challenges to finding safe and affordable options to heat homes. In Alaska, residential ground source heat pumps (GSHPs) have been gaining in popularity to fill this gap. However, there is little research on their long-term performance or effect on soil temperatures. The extended heating season and cold soils of Alaska provide a harsh testing ground for GSHPs, even those designed and marketed for colder climates. The large and unbalanced heating load of cold climates creates a challenging environment for GSHPs. In 2013 the Cold Climate Housing Research Center (CCHRC) installed a GSHP at its Research and Testing Facility (RTF) in Fairbanks, Alaska. The heat pump replaced an oil-fired condensing boiler heating a 464 m2 office space via an in-floor hydronic radiant heating system. The ground heat exchanger (GHE) was installed in moisture-rich silty soils underlain with permafrost near 0°C. The intent of the installation was to observe and monitor the system over a 10-year period in order to develop a better understanding of the performance of GSHPs in sites with permafrost and to help inform future design. As of this writing, the heat pump system has been running for seven heating seasons. The efficiency in those seven heating seasons has been variable with ups and downs that have been difficult to explain. This paper seeks to understand the variability in performance as well as make recommendations for GSHP use in other cold climates.

cold climate↗

DOE OSTI2026

Elucidating the Structural and Electronic Effects of Ni and Mn Cationic Incorporation on CoOOH for Efficient Benzyl Alcohol Electrooxidation

Transition-metal oxyhydroxides such as CoOOH are promising low-cost electrocatalysts for the selective electrooxidation of organic molecules, yet the influence of ubiquitous transition-metal impurities on their performance and durability remains poorly understood. Here, we experimentally probed the individual and synergistic electrochemical and structural effects of Ni and Mn incorporations into model CoOOH electrocatalysts toward an efficient benzyl alcohol oxidation reaction (BAOR). Comprehensive electrochemical, microscopic, and spectroscopic analyses reveal that Ni incorporation enhances charge-transfer kinetics and overall activity through the formation of catalytically active Ni 3+ sites, whereas Mn exhibited a more complex but interesting role. At the early stages of operation, Mn 4+ acts as a stabilizing surface layer that mitigates catalyst degradation but partially blocks Co sites before they undergo gradual leaching. The concurrent incorporation of both Ni and Mn yields a trimetallic 2NMC@NF electrocatalyst that integrates the activity benefits of Ni with the stability conferred by Mn, achieving 92.9% benzyl alcohol conversion and 91.4% Faradaic efficiency after 24 h at 1.5 V vs RHE. These findings elucidate how trace Ni and Mn impurities, often introduced from electrolytes or external sources, can modulate the lattice and electronic structure of CoOOH, offering a design strategy for enhancing both activity and long-term stability in electrocatalytic organic oxidation.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Stability analysis of Alfvén eigenmodes excited by ion cyclotron resonance heating on EAST

Alfvén wave instabilities driven by energetic particles are common in fusion devices. Understanding their behavior is essential for the good confinement of fusion plasma. For this purpose, a series of experiments are performed on EAST to investigate the excitation of toroidal Alfvén eigenmodes (TAEs). Experimentally, it was found that AEs with frequencies around 80, 134, 157 kHz are excited by ion cyclotron resonance heating (ICRH) hydrogen minority heating scenario. Moreover, the excitation of AEs is independent of the wall-coating materials, but determined with the generation and confinement of the fast ions. Statistical analysis suggests that the TAEs can only be excited when the ICRH power is larger than 2 MW and the H 98 factor is larger than 1.15. In line with the experiments, a set of simulations using TORIC, ASCOT, and NOVA-C is performed. The simulation results show that with the experimental density profile and safety factor, the measured TAE with frequency of 134 kHz is well reproduced by taking into account the plasma toroidal rotation frequency. However, the appearance of the 80 kHz mode cannot be captured in the simulations. The ICRH-generated fast hydrogen ions mainly have banana orbits and that their perpendicular velocity is much larger than that of the parallel ions. The stability analysis with NOVA-C suggests that the radial gradient of the fast H ion distribution is the only driving source of TAEs. For TAEs locate in the center of Alfvén continuum, the D ion Landau damping is the dominant damping term; For most other TAEs which have intersections with the continuum boundary, the continuum damping becomes the dominant damping mechanism.

Alfvén eigenmodes↗

DOE OSTI2021

Multi-tracer intensity mapping: cross-correlations, line noise & decorrelation

Line intensity mapping (LIM) is a rapidly emerging technique for constraining cosmology and galaxy formation using multi-frequency, low angular resolution maps. Many LIM applications crucially rely on cross-correlations of two line intensity maps, or of intensity maps with galaxy surveys or galaxy/CMB lensing. We present a consistent halo model to predict all these cross-correlations and enable joint analyses, in 3D redshift-space and for 2D projected maps. We extend the conditional luminosity function formalism to the multi-line case, to consistently account for correlated scatter between multiple galaxy line luminosities. This allows us to model the scale-dependent decorrelation between two line intensity maps, a key input for foreground rejection and for approaches that estimate auto-spectra from cross-spectra. This also enables LIM cross-correlations to reveal astrophysical properties of the interstellar medium inacessible with LIM auto-spectra. We expose the different sources of luminosity scatter or "line noise" in LIM, and clarify their effects on the 1-halo and galaxy shot noise terms. In particular, we show that the effective number density of halos can in some cases exceed that of galaxies, counterintuitively. Using observational and simulation input, we implement this halo model for the Hα, [Oiii], Lyman-α, CO and [Cii] lines. Here, we encourage observers and simulators to measure galaxy luminosity correlation coefficients for pairs of lines whenever possible. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/EmmanuelSchaan/HaloGen/tree/LIM. In a companion paper, we use this halo model formalism and code to highlight the degeneracies between cosmology and astrophysics in LIM, and to compare the LIM observables to galaxy detection for a number of surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Low Mutation Rate and Atypical Mutation Spectrum in Prasinoderma coloniale : Insights From an Early Diverging Green Lineage

Mutations are the ultimate source of genetic diversity on which natural selection and genetic drift act, playing a crucial role in evolution and long-term adaptation. At the molecular level, the spontaneous mutation rate (µ), defined as the number of mutations per base per generation, thus determines the adaptive potential of a species. Through a mutation accumulation experiment, we estimate the mutation rate and spectrum in Prasinoderma coloniale, a phytoplankton species from an early-branching lineage within the Archaeplastida, characterized by an unusually high genomic guanine-cytosine (GC) content (69.8%). We find that P. coloniale has a very low total mutation rate of µ = 2.00 × 10 -10 . The insertion–deletion mutation rate is almost 5 times lesser than the single nucleotide mutation rate with µ ID = 3.40 × 10 -11 and µ SNM = 1.62 × 10 -10 . Prasinoderma coloniale also exhibits an atypical mutational spectrum: While essentially all other eukaryotes show a bias toward GC to AT mutations, no evidence of this AT-bias is observed in P. coloniale. Since cytosine methylation is known to be mutagenic, we hypothesized that this may result from an absence of C-methylation. Surprisingly, we found high levels of C-methylation (14% in 5mC, 25% in 5mCG contexts). Methylated cytosines did not show increased mutation rates compared with unmethylated ones, not supporting the prevailing notion that C-methylation universally leads to higher mutation rates. Overall, P. coloniale combines a GC-rich genome with a low mutation rate and original mutation spectrum, suggesting the almost universal AT-bias may not have been present in the ancestor of the green lineage.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Diabatic Eddy Forcing Increases Persistence and Opposes Propagation of the Southern Annular Mode in MERRA-2

Abstract As a dominant mode of jet variability on subseasonal time scales, the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) provides a window into how the atmosphere can produce internal oscillations on longer-than-synoptic time scales. While SAM’s existence can be explained by dry, purely barotropic theories, the time scale for its persistence and propagation is set by a lagged interaction between barotropic and baroclinic mechanisms, making the exact physical mechanisms challenging to identify and to simulate, even in latest generation models. By partitioning the eddy momentum flux convergence in MERRA-2 using an eddy–mean flow interaction framework, we demonstrate that diabatic processes (condensation and radiative heating) are the main contributors to SAM’s persistence in its stationary regime, as well as the key for preventing propagation in this regime. In SAM’s propagating regime, baroclinic and diabatic feedbacks also dominate the eddy–jet feedback. However, propagation is initiated by barotropic shifts in upper-level wave breaking and then sustained by a baroclinic response, leading to a roughly 60-day oscillation period. This barotropic propagation mechanism has been identified in dry, idealized models, but here we show evidence of this mechanism for the first time in reanalysis. The diabatic feedbacks on SAM are consistent with modulation of the storm-track latitude by SAM, altering the emission temperature and cloud cover over individual waves. Therefore, future attempts to improve the SAM time scale in models should focus on the storm-track location, as well as the roles of the cloud and moisture parameterizations. Significance Statement As they circumnavigate the planet, the tropospheric jet streams slowly drift north and south over about 30 days, longer than the normal limit of weather prediction. Understanding the source of this “memory” could improve our knowledge of how the atmosphere organizes itself and our ability to make long-term forecasts. Current theories have identified several possible internal atmospheric interactions responsible for this memory. Yet most of the theories for understanding the jets’ behavior assume that this behavior is only weakly influenced by atmospheric water vapor. We show that this assumption is not enough to understand jet persistence. Instead, clouds and precipitation are more important contributors in reanalysis data than internal “dry” mechanisms to this memory of the Southern Hemisphere jet.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗