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At least 829 records · Page 46

Risk-Adaptive Experimental Design for High-Consequence Systems: LDRD Final Report

Constructing accurate statistical models of critical system responses typically requires an enormous amount of data from physical experiments or numerical simulations. Unfortunately, data generation is often expensive and time consuming. To streamline the data generation process, optimal experimental design determines the 'best' allocation of experiments with respect to a criterion that measures the ability to estimate some important aspect of an assumed statistical model. While optimal design has a vast literature, few researchers have developed design paradigms targeting tail statistics, such as quantiles. In this project, we tailored and extended traditional design paradigms to target distribution tails. Our approach included (i) the development of new optimality criteria to shape the distribution of prediction variances, (ii) the development of novel risk-adapted surrogate models that provably overestimate certain statistics including the probability of exceeding a threshold, and (iii) the asymptotic analysis of regression approaches that target tail statistics such as superquantile regression. To accompany our theoretical contributions, we released implementations of our methods for surrogate modeling and design of experiments in two complementary open source software packages, the ROL/OED Toolkit and PyApprox.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Summary of Forensic Examinations in Support of Breach Sealed Source Event at Harborview Medical Facility on 2 May 2019

On May 2, 2019, International Isotopes, Inc. (INIS), a subcontractor to Triad National Security, LLC (contractor for Los Alamos National Laboratory) breached a sealed radioactive source containing ~2800 Ci of the radioactive isotope cesium-137 ( 137 Cs) at the University of Washington Harborview Research and Training (HRT) Building in downtown Seattle while attempting to recover the source for the National Nuclear Security Administration’s (NNSA’s) Off-site Source Recovery Program (OSRP). The breach of the source resulted in the contamination of 13 personnel, all 7 floors of the building, and a release of material to the environment. A summary of root and contributing causes of the event was investigated and published by a joint investigation team (JIT) co-led by NNSA and Triad National Security, LLC. That investigation was supported by forensics examinations provided by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. This report summarizes the results of those forensic examinations.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

Improving the Capabilities and Computational Efficiency of the RTE+RRTMGP Radiation Code (Final Report)

This report details progress on the RTE+RRTMGP radiation codes made during the period of performance. RTE+RRTMGP is a set of codes for computing radiative fluxes in planetary atmospheres. RRTMGP uses a k-distribution to provide an optical description (absorption and possibly Rayleigh optical depth) of the gaseous atmosphere, along with the relevant source functions, on a pre-determined spectral grid given temperatures, pressures, and gas concentration. RTE computes fluxes given spectrally-resolved optical descriptions and source functions. Spectrally-resolved fluxes are summarized (“reduced”) via a user extensible class. The initial release of the code and the design choices are described in Pincus et al. 2019; the codes are available on Github. Although RRTMGP was based on current (at the time) empirical spectroscopic data, RTE and RRTMGP were developed in large part to modernize software practices. The design focused on flexibility broadly interpreted: by separating code from data and allowing data to drive computation; in coupling to the host model (e.g. the coupling of clouds to radiative fluxes is user-controlled); with respect to programming languages (computational tasks are accessed via widely-compatible C interfaces); and with respect to hardware (the codes run on a range of CPU and GPU architectures). The code also puts an emphasis on modularity and clarity. RTE+RRTMGP v1.0 was released in September 20219. This award supported the evolution of the RTE+RRTMGP code base to support greater flexibility, accuracy, and efficiency.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

An Open Benchmark of One Million High-Fidelity Cislunar Trajectories

Cislunar space spans from geosynchronous altitudes to beyond the Moon and will underpin future exploration, science, and security operations. We describe and release an open dataset of one million numerically propagated cislunar trajectories generated with the open-source Space Situational Awareness Python package (SSAPy). The model includes high-degree Earth/Moon gravity, solar gravity, and Earth/Sun radiation pressure; other planetary gravities are omitted by design for computational efficiency. Initial conditions uniformly sample commonly used osculating-element ranges, and each trajectory is propagated for up to six years under a single, fixed start epoch. The dataset is intended as a reusable benchmark for method development (e.g., space domain awareness, navigation, and machine-learning pipelines), a reference library for statistical studies of orbit families, and a starting point for community-driven extensions (e.g., alternative epochs). We report empirically observed stability trends (e.g., a band near ~5 GEO and persistence of some co-orbital classes including L4/L5 librators) as dataset descriptors rather than new dynamical results. The chief contribution is the scale, fidelity, organization (CSV/HDF5 with full state time series and metadata), and open availability, which together lower the barrier to comparative and data-driven studies in the cislunar regime.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

PowerAnalytics.jl: User-Centric Power Systems Analysis in Julia

The National Laboratory of the Rockies recently released version 1 of PowerAnalytics.jl, an analysis module for the outputs of its popular open-source electrical power systems modeling platform Sienna. It features an extensible framework - based on the flexible selecting of components, the execution of arbitrary metrics on them, and a familiar DataFrames-based output interface with embedded metadata - to process results in the Sienna style while keeping the interface as simple as possible for non-Julia experts. Here, I describe the package and where it fits into the Sienna ecosystem, how I harnessed user-centered design and Julia features to achieve beginner friendliness without sacrificing performance and expressibility, and what lessons might be drawn from the package's design and implementation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Indigenous lunar methane and ethane

Methane and ethane released from Apollo 11 lunar samples by crushing or acid treatment, suggesting carbides hydrolysis as main source

Abell, P. I.↗

Volatile history of Mangala Valles, Mars

The Mangala Valles channel system differs from other Mars outflow channels as they emanate from a point source determined by the local interplay of tectonism, volcanism, and volatiles that led directly to the release of groundwater. Water discharge rates through the southern reaches of Mangala Valles may have been substantially lower than estimates determined fron the canyon system as a whole, suggesting that the accumulation and release of water may have lasted longer than previously envisioned. The sequence of events determined from mapping of units along the southern reaches of Mangala Valles is closely related to the area structures.

Zimbelman, James R.↗

Episodic Ocean-Induced CO2 Greenhouse on Mars: Implications for Fluvial Valley Formation

Pulses of CO2 injected into the martian atmosphere more recently than 4 Ga can place the atmosphere into a stable, higher pressure, warmer greenhouse state. One to two bar pulses of CO2 added to the atmosphere during the past several billion years are sufficient to raise global mean temperatures above 240 or 250 K for tens to hundreds of millions of years, even when accounting for CO2 condensation. Over time, the added CO2 is lost to carbonates, the atmosphere collapses and returns to its buffered state. A substantial amount of water could be transported during the greenhouse periods from the surface of a frozen body of water created by outflow channel discharges to higher elevations, despite global temperatures well below freezing. This water, precipitated as snow, could ultimately form fluvial valleys if deposition sites are associated with localized heat sources, such as magmatic intrusions or volcanoes. Thus, if outflow channel discharges were accompanied by the release of sufficient quantities of CO2, a limited hydrological cycle could have resulted that would have been capable of producing geomorphic change sufficient for fluvial erosion and valley formation. Glacial or periglacial landforms would also be a consequence of such a mechanism.

Gulick, V. C.↗

Meteoroid Environment Modeling: the Meteoroid Engineering Model and Shower Forecasting

INTRODUCTION: The meteoroid environment is often divided conceptually into meteor showers and the sporadic meteor background. It is commonly but incorrectly assumed that meteoroid impacts primarily occur during meteor showers; instead, the vast majority of hazardous meteoroids belong to the sporadic complex. Unlike meteor showers, which persist for a few hours to a few weeks, sporadic meteoroids impact the Earth's atmosphere and spacecraft throughout the year. The Meteoroid Environment Office (MEO) has produced two environment models to handle these cases: the Meteoroid Engineering Model (MEM) and an annual meteor shower forecast. The sporadic complex, despite its year-round activity, is not isotropic in its directionality. Instead, their apparent points of origin, or radiants, are organized into groups called "sources". The speed, directionality, and size distribution of these sporadic sources are modeled by the Meteoroid Engineering Model (MEM), which is currently in its second major release version (MEMR2) [Moorhead et al., 2015]. MEM provides the meteoroid flux relative to a user-provided spacecraft trajectory; it provides the total flux as well as the flux per angular bin, speed interval, and on specific surfaces (ram, wake, etc.). Because the sporadic complex dominates the meteoroid flux, MEM is the most appropriate model to use in spacecraft design. Although showers make up a small fraction of the meteoroid environment, they can produce significant short-term enhancements of the meteoroid flux. Thus, it can be valuable to consider showers when assessing risks associated with vehicle operations that are brief in duration. To assist with such assessments, the MEO issues an annual forecast that reports meteor shower fluxes as a function of time and compares showers with the time-averaged total meteoroid flux. This permits missions to do quick assessments of the increase in risk posed by meteor showers.

Moorhead, Althea V.↗

Meteoroid Environment Modeling: The Meteoroid Engineering Model and Shower Forecasting

The meteoroid environment is often divided conceptually into meteor showers and the sporadic meteor background. It is commonly but incorrectly assumed that meteoroid impacts primarily occur during meteor showers; instead, the vast majority of hazardous meteoroids belong to the sporadic complex. Unlike meteor showers, which persist for a few hours to a few weeks, sporadic meteoroids impact the Earth's atmosphere and spacecraft throughout the year. The Meteoroid Environment Office (MEO) has produced two environment models to handle these cases: the Meteoroid Engineering Model (MEM) and an annual meteor shower forecast. The sporadic complex, despite its year-round activity, is not isotropic in its directionality. Instead, their apparent points of origin, or radiants, are organized into groups called "sources". The speed, directionality, and size distribution of these sporadic sources are modeled by the Meteoroid Engineering Model (MEM), which is currently in its second major release version (MEMR2) [Moorhead et al., 2015]. MEM provides the meteoroid flux relative to a user-provided spacecraft trajectory; it provides the total flux as well as the flux per angular bin, speed interval, and on specific surfaces (ram, wake, etc.). Because the sporadic complex dominates the meteoroid flux, MEM is the most appropriate model to use in spacecraft design. Although showers make up a small fraction of the meteoroid environment, they can produce significant short-term enhancements of the meteoroid flux. Thus, it can be valuable to consider showers when assessing risks associated with vehicle operations that are brief in duration. To assist with such assessments, the MEO issues an annual forecast that reports meteor shower fluxes as a function of time and compares showers with the time-averaged total meteoroid flux. This permits missions to do quick assessments of the increase in risk posed by meteor showers. Section II describes MEM in more detail and describes our current efforts to improve its characteristics for a future release. Section III describes the annual shower forecast and highlights recent improvements made to its algorithm and inputs.

Moorhead, Althea V.↗

Satellites May Underestimate Rice Residue and Associated Burning Emissions in Vietnam

In this study, we estimate rice residue, associated burning emissions, and compare results with existing emissions inventories employing a bottom-up approach. We first estimated field-level post-harvest rice residues, including separate fuel-loading factors for rice straw and rice stubble. Results suggested fuel-loading factors of 0.27 kg/sq m (+/-0.033), 0.61 kg/sq m (+/-0.076), and 0.88 kg/sq m (+/-0.083) for rice straw, stubble, and total post-harvest biomass, respectively. Using these factors, we quantified potential emissions from rice residue burning and compared our estimates with other studies. Our results suggest total rice residue burning emissions as 2.24 Gg PM2.5, 36.54 Gg CO and 567.79 Gg CO2 for Hanoi Province, which are significantly higher than earlier studies. We attribute our higher emission estimates to improved fuel-loading factors; moreover, we infer that some earlier studies relying on residue-to-product ratios could be underestimating rice residue emissions by more than a factor of 2.3 for Hanoi, Vietnam. Using the rice planted area data from the Vietnamese government, and combining our fuel-loading factors, we also estimated rice residue PM2.5 emissions for the entirety of Vietnam and compared these estimates with an existing all-sources emissions inventory, and the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED). Results suggest 75.98 Gg of PM2.5 released from rice residue burning accounting for 12.8% of total emissions for Vietnam. The GFED database suggests 42.56 Gg PM2.5 from biomass burning with 5.62 Gg attributed to agricultural waste burning indicating satellite-based methods may be significantly underestimating emissions. Our results not only provide improved residue and emission estimates, but also highlight the need for emissions mitigation from rice residue burning.

Air pollution↗

HDF5 Roadmap 2019-2020

In this talk we will give an overview of the new features of the upcoming HDF5 release 1.12.0, and outline the HDF5 roadmap for the next year. We will demonstrate new open source file drivers to access HDF5 files via Amazon Simple Storage Service (Amazon S3) and on Hadoop Distributed File system (HDFS). We will use this presentation to get feedback on the HDF5 roadmap from the ESDIS users and application developers.

Cloud↗

Evaluating T 2 Conversion to Tritiated Water under Ambient Conditions - Case Study

In 2015, an incident released approximately 40 Ci of T 2 gas directly into the Tritium Exhaust System. Data from a bubbler system that monitored the stack effluent during the time period encompassing the accident, from 9 days prior through approximately 26 hours following the release, indicated that approximately 0.25% of the total accumulated tritium gas was in the form of tritiated water; however this value does not account for sources of tritium exhaust from other building operations and processes during the 9 days prior to this incident. Further analysis of the bubbler data around this time period considered the 9-day background contributions and shows that the actual fraction of the tritium that was released as tritiated water vapor (during and within 26 hours after the release) was likely lower than 0.1%.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Ammonia Release on ISS

Crew: Approximately 53% metabolic load Product of protein metabolism Limit production of ammonia by external regulation NOT possbile Payloads Potential source Scientific experiments Thorough safety review ensures sufficient levels of containment

Macatangay, Ariel↗

Is chemical heating a major cause of the mesosphere inversion layer?

A region of thermal enhancement of the mesosphere has been detected on numerous occasions by in situ measurements, remote sensing from space, and lidar techniques. The source of these 'temperature inversion layers' has been attributed in the literature to the dissipation relating to dynamical forcing by gravity wave or tidal activity. However, evidence that gravity wave breaking can produce the inversion layer with amplitude as large as that observed in lidar measurements has been limited to results of numerical modeling. An alternative source for the production of the thermal inversion layer in the mesosphere is the direct deposition of heat by exothermic chemical reactions. Two-dimensional modeling combining a comprehensive model of the mesosphere photochemistry with the dynamical transport of long-lived species shows that the region from 80 to 95 km may be heated as much as 3 to 10 K/d during the night and half this rate during the day. Given the uncertainties in our understanding of the dynamics and chemistry for the mesopause region, separating the two sources by passive observations of the mesosphere thermal structure looks to be difficult. Therefore we have considered an active means for producing a mesopause thermal layer, namely the release of ozone into the upper mesosphere from a rocket payload. The induced effects would include artificial enhancements of the OH and Na airglow intensities as well as the mesopause thermal structure. The advantages of the rocket release of ozone is that detection of these effects by ground-based imaging, radar, and lidar systems and comparison of these effects with model predictions would help quantify the partition of the artificial inversion layer production into sources of dynamical and chemical forcing.

Meriwether, John W.↗

Clustering redshift distribution calibration of weak lensing surveys using the DESI-DR1 spectroscopic dataset

We estimate the source redshift distribution of current weak lensing surveys by applying the clustering-based redshift calibration technique, using the galaxy redshift sample provided by the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument Data Release 1 (DESI-DR1). We cross-correlate the Bright Galaxy Survey (BGS), Luminous Red Galaxies (LRGs) and Emission Line Galaxies (ELGs) from DESI, within the redshift range $0.1 < z < 1.6$, with overlapping tomographic source samples from the Dark Energy Survey (DES), Kilo-Degree Survey (KiDS), and Hyper Suprime-Cam (HSC) survey. Using realistic mock catalogues, we test the stability of the clustering-redshift signal to fitting scale, reference-sample choice, and the evolution of source galaxy bias, and we explicitly model and marginalise over magnification contributions, which become non-negligible at $z \gtrsim 1$ due to the depth of the DESI ELG sample. We then compare the resulting bias-weighted redshift distributions to those calibrated using self-organising map (SOM) techniques, finding agreement within uncertainties for all surveys and tomographic bins. Our results demonstrate that clustering redshifts enabled by DESI's unprecedented spectroscopic sample provides a robust, complementary, and independent constraint capable of reducing one of the dominant systematic uncertainties in weak lensing cosmology.

Ruggeri, R. [Queensland U.]↗

HarDWR - Raw Water Rights Records

A dataset within the Harmonized Database of Western U.S. Water Rights (HarDWR). For a detailed description of the database, please see the meta-record v2.0. Changelog v2.0 - Switched source data from collecting records from each state independently to using the WestDAAT dataset v1.0 - Initial public release Description In order to hold a water right in the western United States, an entity, (e.g., an individual, corporation, municipality, sovereign government, or non-profit) must register a physical document with the state's water regulatory agency. State water agencies each maintain their own database containing all registered water right documents within the state, along with relevant metadata such as the point of diversion and place of use of the water. All western U.S. states have digitized their individual water rights databases, as well as geospatial data defining the areas in which water rights are managed. Each state maintains and provides their own water rights data in accordance with individual state regulations and standards. In addition, while all states make their water rights publicly available, each provides their records in unique formats, meaning that file types, field availability, and terms vary from state to state. This leads to additional challenges to managing resources which cross state lines, or conducting consistent multi-state water analyses. For the first version of HarDWR, we collected the water rights databases from 11 Western States of the United States. In order to preform regional analyses with the collected data, the raw records had to be harmonized into one single format. The Water Data Exchange (WaDE) is a program dedicated to the sharing of water-related data for the Western U.S. in a singular consistent format. Created by the Western States Water Council (WSWC) to facilitate the collection and dissemination of water data among WSWC's member states and the public, WaDE provides an important service for those interested in water resource planning and management in their focus region. Of the services which WaDE provides, the one of the most interesting is the WestDAAT dataset, which is a collection of water rights data provided by the 18 WSWC member states that have been standardized into a single format, much like we had done on a more limited scale with HarDWR v1. For this version of HarDWR we decided to use WestDAAT, specifically a snapshot created in Feburary 2024, as our water rights source data. A full explanation of the benefits gained from this switch can be found in the description of the updated Harmonized Water Rights Records v2.0, but in short it has allowed us to focus more of our efforts on answering research questions and gaining a more realistic understanding of how water rights are allocated. For more information on how the data for WestDAAT was collected, please see the WaDE data summary. Terms of Use While WaDE works directly with the state agencies to collect and standardize the water rights records, the ultimate authority for the water rights data remains the individual states. Each state, and their respective water right authorities, have made their water right records available for non-commercial reference uses. In addition, the states make no guarantees as to the completeness, accuracy, or timeliness of their respective databases, let alone the modifications which we, the authors of this paper, have made to the collected records. None of the states should be held liable for using this data outside of its intended use. As several of the states update their water rights databases daily, the information provided here is not the latest possible, and should not be used for legal purposes. WestDAAT itself has irregular updates. Additional questions about the data the source states provided should be directed to the respective state agencies (see methods.csv and organization.csv files described below). In addition, although data was presented here was not collected directly from the states, several states requested specifically worked disclaimers when sharing their data. These disclaimers are included here as an acknowledgement from where the water rights data is primarily sourced. Colorado: "The data made available here has been modified for use from its original source, which is the State of Colorado. THE STATE OF COLORADO MAKES NO REPRESENTATIONS OR WARRANTY AS TO THE COMPLETENESS, ACCURACY, TIMELINESS, OR CONTENT OF ANY DATA MADE AVAILABLE THROUGH THIS SITE. THE STATE OF COLORADO EXPRESSLY DISCLAIMS ALL WARRANTIES, WHETHER EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING ANY IMPLIED WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY, OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. The data is subject to change as modifications and updates are complete. It is understood that the information contained in the Web feed is being used at one's own risk." Montana: "The Montana State Library provides this product/service for informational purposes only. The Library did not produce it for, nor is it suitable for legal, engineering, or surveying purposes. Consumers of this information should review or consult the primary data and information sources to ascertain the viability of the information for their purposes. The Library provides these data in good faith but does not represent or warrant its accuracy, adequacy, or completeness. In no event shall the Library be liable for any incorrect results or analysis; any direct, indirect, special, or consequential damages to any party; or any lost profits arising out of or in connection with the use or the inability to use the data or the services provided. The Library makes these data and services available as a convenience to the public, and for no other purpose. The Library reserves the right to change or revise published data and/or services at any time." Oregon: "This product is for informational purposes and may not have been prepared for, or be suitable for legal, engineering, or surveying purposes. Users of this information should review or consult the primary data and information sources to ascertain the usability of the information." File Descriptions The unmodified February, 2024 WestDAAT snapshot is composed of nine files. Below is a brief description of each file, as well as how they were utilized for HarDWR. WaDEDataDictionaryTerms.xlsx: As the file's name implies, this is a data dictionary for all of the below named files. This file describes the column names for each of the following files, with the exception of citation.txt which does not have any columns. The descriptions for each file are divided by tab,with the same name as their associated file, within this document. allocationamount.csv: The "main" file of the group, it contains the water right records for each state. Of particular note, each water right is broken down into one or more water allocations. Allocations may be withdrawn from one or more locations, or even multiple allocations associated with a particular location. This is a more subtle and realistic representation of how water is used than what was available in the first version of HarDWR. For the records from some states, this can mean that multiple allocations listed under a single right will appear as rows within this file. citation.txt: A combination of contact information for WaDE personnel, disclaimer about how the data should be used, and guidelines for citing WestDAAT. methods.csv: A file describing the source and method by which WaDE collected water rights data from each state. organization.csv: A file listing the water rights authoritative agencies for each state. sites.csv: This file provides the geographic, and other descriptors, of the physical location of allocations, called 'sites'. To reiterate, it is possible for one allocation to be associated with multiple sites, as well as one site to be associated with multiple allocations. The two descriptors which we were most interested in where the site's coordinates, as well as whether the site was classified as a Point of Diversion (POD) or a Place of Use (POU). As a general rule, PODs are geographic points, while POUs are areas typically represented as property boundaries or irregularly shaped polygons. sites_pouGeometry.csv: For those allocations with a POU site, this file contains the defining points for the associated polygons. variables.csv: A file describing the units in which an allocation's water amount is reported within WestDAAT. This information is essentially a repeat of the 'AllocationFlow_CFS' and 'AllocationVolume_AF' columns within allocationamount.csv, at least for our purposes. watersources: This file describes the source of water from which each site extracts from. For our purposes, this table was used to determine whether the water came from Surface Water, Groundwater, or Unspecified Water.

Lisk, Matthew↗

Low-frequency source parameters of twelve large earthquakes

A global survey of the low-frequency (1-21 mHz) source characteristics of large events are studied. We are particularly interested in events unusually enriched in low-frequency and in events with a short-term precursor. We model the source time function of 12 large earthquakes using teleseismic data at low frequency. For each event we retrieve the source amplitude spectrum in the frequency range between 1 and 21 mHz with the Silver and Jordan method and the phase-shift spectrum in the frequency range between 1 and 11 mHz with the Riedesel and Jordan method. We then model the source time function by fitting the two spectra. Two of these events, the 1980 Irpinia, Italy, and the 1983 Akita-Oki, Japan, are shallow-depth complex events that took place on multiple faults. In both cases the source time function has a length of about 100 seconds. By comparison Westaway and Jackson find 45 seconds for the Irpinia event and Houston and Kanamori about 50 seconds for the Akita-Oki earthquake. The three deep events and four of the seven intermediate-depth events are fast rupturing earthquakes. A single pulse is sufficient to model the source spectra in the frequency range of our interest. Two other intermediate-depth events have slower rupturing processes, characterized by a continuous energy release lasting for about 40 seconds. The last event is the intermediate-depth 1983 Peru-Ecuador earthquake. It was first recognized as a precursive event by Jordan. We model it with a smooth rupturing process starting about 2 minutes before the high frequency origin time superimposed to an impulsive source.

Harabaglia, Paolo↗