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At least 829 records · Page 46

Phenomena-based graph representations and applications to chemical process simulation

Rapid and robust simulation of chemical processes is critical to conduct process design, optimization, techno-economic analysis, and sustainability analysis. Yet, efficiently solving simulation models remains a challenge due to the highly coupled and nonlinear nature of the underlying algebraic equations that capture the physical phenomena taking place in the process (e.g., material and energy conservation, phase equilibrium, reactions). In this work, we show that graph-theoretic representations of the physical phenomena within unit operations can help navigate and decompose equations to systematically identify alternative approaches for fast and robust numerical solutions. Specifically, we present a graph-theoretic abstraction that captures the connectivity between the model variables/equations and use this abstraction to group variables/equations into fundamental phenomena. We show that phenomena-based decomposition of the underlying equations can help decouple nonlinearities and enforce material/energy conservation at the process level to accelerate convergence. The proposed decomposition approach differs from the more traditional sequential modular simulation approach, in which equations are grouped and decomposed by unit operations. We implemented the phenomena-based decomposition in BioSTEAM—an open-source process simulation platform in Python—and demonstrated that this approach can converge a variety of separation process models. Compared to sequential modular simulation, the phenomena-based approach can converge idealized systems faster, but it can be slower for (or even fail to converge) highly coupled and nonideal process systems.

Convergence↗

Trap-Assisted Dopant Compensation Prevents Shunting in poly-Si Passivating Interdigitated Back Contact Silicon Solar Cells

Interdigitated back contact (IBC) solar cells achieve the highest efficiencies of single-junction architectures, but complicated patterning of the rear fingers and spreading of dopants during processing inhibit their mainstream adoption due to concerns of shunting between the IBC fingers. One method of simplifying patterning at the rear is by using contact masks combined with plasma-enhanced chemical vapor deposition (PECVD) or ion implantation. However, the intrinsic isolation region becomes contaminated during high-temperature annealing by lateral diffusion of dopants and during masked PECVD by spreading of dopant radicals through region between the mask and the substrate. Despite this contamination, we show through scanning spreading resistance microscopy and Kelvin probe force microscopy that a ~20 µm wide compensating region exists with high enough resistivity to prevent shunting. We model this p-i-n poly-Si system using two simulation models: a simple resistor model considering only the capture of charge carriers by trap defects in poly-Si to reduce the conductivity, and a more refined 1-dimensional finite element model using Poisson’s equation, drift-diffusion equations, and recombination of carriers. Using this model, we show that high defect density significantly decreases the current across the region between the p- and n-type fingers, preventing shunting.

atom probe↗

Diffusion model approach to simulating electron-proton scattering events

Generative artificial intelligence is a fast-growing area of research offering various avenues for exploration in high-energy nuclear physics. In this work, we explore the use of generative models for simulating electron-proton collisions relevant to experiments like the Continuous Electron Beam Accelerator Facility and the future Electron-Ion Collider (EIC). These experiments play a critical role in advancing our understanding of nucleons and nuclei in terms of quark and gluon degrees of freedom. The use of generative models for simulating collider events faces several challenges such as the sparsity of the data, the presence of global or eventwide constraints, and steeply falling particle distributions. In this work, we focus on the implementation of diffusion models for the simulation of electron-proton scattering events at EIC energies. Our results demonstrate that diffusion models can reproduce relevant observables such as momentum distributions and correlations of particles, momentum sum rules, and the leading electron kinematics, all of which are of particular interest in electron-proton collisions. Although the sampling process is relatively slow compared to other machine-learning architectures, we find diffusion models can generate high-quality samples. We foresee various applications of our work including inference for nuclear structure, interpretable generative machine learning, and searches of physics beyond the Standard Model. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Offshore wind energy forecasting sensitivity to sea surface temperature input in the Mid-Atlantic

Abstract. As offshore wind farm development expands, accurate wind resource forecasting over the ocean is needed. One important yet relatively unexplored aspect of offshore wind resource assessment is the role of sea surface temperature (SST). Models are generally forced with reanalysis data sets, which employ daily SST products. Compared with observations, significant variations in SSTs that occur on finer timescales are often not captured. Consequently, shorter-lived events such as sea breezes and low-level jets (among others), which are influenced by SSTs, may not be correctly represented in model results. The use of hourly SST products may improve the forecasting of these events. In this study, we examine the sensitivity of model output from the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) 4.2.1 to different SST products. We first evaluate three different data sets: the Multiscale Ultrahigh Resolution (MUR25) SST analysis, a daily, 0.25∘ × 0.25∘ resolution product; the Operational Sea Surface Temperature and Ice Analysis (OSTIA), a daily, 0.054∘ × 0.054∘ resolution product; and SSTs from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite 16 (GOES-16), an hourly, 0.02∘ × 0.02∘ resolution product. GOES-16 is not processed at the same level as OSTIA and MUR25; therefore, the product requires gap-filling using an interpolation method to create a complete map with no missing data points. OSTIA and GOES-16 SSTs validate markedly better against buoy observations than MUR25, so these two products are selected for use with model simulations, while MUR25 is at this point removed from consideration. We run the model for June and July of 2020 and find that for this time period, in the Mid-Atlantic, although OSTIA SSTs overall validate better against in situ observations taken via a buoy array in the area, the two products result in comparable hub-height (140 m) wind characterization performance on monthly timescales. Additionally, during hours-long flagged events (< 30 h each) that show statistically significant wind speed deviations between the two simulations, both simulations once again demonstrate similar validation performance (differences in bias, earth mover's distance, correlation, and root mean square error on the order of 10−1 or less), with GOES-16 winds validating nominally better than OSTIA winds. With a more refined GOES-16 product, which has been not only gap-filled but also assimilated with in situ SST measurements in the region, it is likely that hub-height winds characterized by GOES-16-informed simulations would definitively validate better than those informed by OSTIA SSTs.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Increased power gains from wake steering control using preview wind direction information

Abstract. Yaw controllers typically rely on measurements taken at the wind turbine, resulting in a slow reaction to wind direction changes and subsequent power losses due to misalignments. Delayed yaw action is especially problematic in wake steering operation because it can result in power losses when the yaw misalignment angle deviates from the intended one due to a changing wind direction. This study explores the use of preview wind direction information for wake steering control in a two-turbine setup with a wind speed in the partial load range. For these conditions and a simple yaw controller, results from an engineering model identify an optimum preview time of 90 s. These results are validated by forcing wind direction changes in a large-eddy simulation model. For a set of six simulations with large wind direction changes, the average power gain from wake steering increases from only 0.44 % to 1.32 %. For a second set of six simulations with smaller wind direction changes, the average power gain from wake steering increases from 1.24 % to 1.85 %. Low-frequency fluctuations are shown to have a larger impact on the performance of wake steering and the effectiveness of preview control, in particular, than high-frequency fluctuations. From these results, it is concluded that the benefit of preview wind direction control for wake steering is substantial, making it a topic worth pursuing in future work.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Bayesian learning of orthogonal embeddings for multi-fidelity Gaussian Processes

Uncertainty propagation in complex engineering systems often poses significant computational challenges related to modeling and quantifying probability distributions of model outputs, as those emerge as the result of various sources of uncertainty that are inherent in the system under investigation. Gaussian Processes regression (GPs) is a robust meta-modeling technique that allows for fast model prediction and exploration of response surfaces. Multi-fidelity variations of GPs further leverage information from cheap and low fidelity model simulations in order to improve their predictive performance on the high fidelity model. In order to cope with the high volume of data required to train GPs in high dimensional design spaces, a common practice is to introduce latent design variables that are typically projections of the original input space to a lower dimensional subspace, and therefore substitute the problem of learning the initial high dimensional mapping, with that of training a GP on a low dimensional space. Here in this paper, we present a Bayesian approach to identify optimal transformations that map the input points to low dimensional latent variables. The \projection" mapping consists of an orthonormal matrix that is considered a priori unknown and needs to be inferred jointly with the GP parameters, conditioned on the available training data. The proposed Bayesian inference scheme relies on a two-step iterative algorithm that samples from the marginal posteriors of the GP parameters and the projection matrix respectively, both using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling. In order to take into account the orthogonality constraints imposed on the orthonormal projection matrix, a Geodesic Monte Carlo sampling algorithm is employed, that is suitable for exploiting probability measures on manifolds. We extend the proposed framework to multi-fidelity models using GPs including the scenarios of training multiple outputs together. We validate our framework on three synthetic problems with a known lower-dimensional subspace. The benefits of our proposed framework, are illustrated on the computationally challenging aerodynamic optimization of a last-stage blade for an industrial gas turbine, where we study the effect of an 85-dimensional shape parameterization of a three-dimensional airfoil on two output quantities of interest, specifically on the aerodynamic efficiency and the degree of reaction

42 ENGINEERING↗

A statistical approach to screening isotopic signatures in monitoring for underground nuclear explosions

The ability to differentiate between atmospheric radionuclide signatures from underground nuclear explosions (UNEs) and signals from other sources, such as medical isotope-production facilities and nuclear reactors, can be critical to the detection and monitoring of unannounced, low-yield nuclear events. Signatures having anomalously high amplitudes, compared to background levels, remain the best indicator in screening for a UNE. However, isotopic composition can further validate a suspected UNE signature, but separation from any atmospheric background composition is first necessary. To date, evaluating the challenges of performing this separation has typically involved comparing an observed background with a highly idealized deterministic model of radioxenon signature production by a UNE that does not consider the influence of post-detonation chemical/physical processes in the detonation cavity or the subsequent gas transport mechanisms that can also affect the isotopic composition of the detected gas signature. In addition, purely deterministic models, as previously employed, overlook the uncertainty inherent in estimating critical parameters characterizing the UNE and its detonation environment. In this paper, we create detailed, multi-parameter models of radionuclide evolution using the widely accepted England and Rider post-detonation radionuclide decay-chain network coupled to detailed models simulating physical production and transport processes affecting the gas signature. Because these models are governed by uncertain parameters including barometric fluctuations, realistic ranges of variation for each of the parameters influencing isotopic composition are then defined. A Latin-Hypercube sampling approach is used to obtain a random distribution of isotopic production and gas transport results associated with a given value of each parameter. We apply these results to background histories of two stations, one providing 4-isotope background measurements and the other providing two-isotope measurements associated with the 2013 DPRK announced UNE.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Continuum gyrokinetic simulations of edge plasmas in single-null geometries

The first continuum gyrokinetic calculations of electrostatic ion scale turbulence are presented for the case of a diverted tokamak geometry. The simulation model solves the long-wavelength limit of the full-F gyrokinetic equation for ion species coupled to the quasi-neutrality equation for electrostatic potential variations, where a fluid model is used for an electron response. Furthermore, in order to facilitate simulations of highly-anisotropic microturbulence in the presence of strong magnetic shear and a magnetic X-point, a numerical algorithm utilizing a locally field-aligned multiblock coordinate system has been developed and implemented in the 5D finite-volume code COGENT. In this approach, the toroidal direction is divided into blocks, such that within each block, the cells are field-aligned and a non-matching grid interface is allowed at block boundaries. The toroidal angle corresponds to the “coarse” field-aligned coordinate, whereas the poloidal cross section, comprised of the radial and poloidal directions, is finely gridded to resolve short-scale perpendicular turbulence structures and to support accurate re-mapping (interpolation) at block boundaries. The 5D simulations explore cross-separatrix ion scale turbulence in the presence of a self-consistent radial electric field and address the effects of magnetic-shear stabilization in the X-point region.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

N2A

N2A includes an object-oriented language for modeling neural systems as well as a software tool for editing and simulating models. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525. SAND2021-2695 O

Rothganger, Frederick↗

Comparison of Eulerian Bin and Lagrangian Particle-Based Schemes in Simulations of Pi Chamber Dynamics and Microphysics

This paper presents a comparison of simulations applying either a traditional Eulerian bin microphysics or a novel particle-based Lagrangian approach to represent CCN activation and cloud droplet growth. The Eulerian microphysics solve the evolution equation for the spectral density function, whereas the Lagrangian approach follows computational particles referred to as superdroplets. Each superdroplet represents a multiplicity of natural droplets that makes the Lagrangian approach computationally feasible. The two schemes apply identical representation of CCN activation and use the same droplet growth equation; these make direct comparison between the two schemes practical. The comparison, the first of its kind, applies an idealized simulation setup motivated by laboratory experiments with the Pi Chamber and previous model simulations of the Pi Chamber dynamics and microphysics. The Pi Chamber laboratory apparatus considers interactions between turbulence, CCN activation, and cloud droplet growth in moist Rayleigh–Bénard convection. Simulated steady-state droplet spectra averaged over the entire chamber are similar, with the mean droplet concentration, mean radius, and spectral width close in Eulerian and Lagrangian simulations. Small differences that do exist are explained by the inherent differences between the two schemes and their numerical implementation. The local droplet spectra differ substantially, again in agreement with the inherent limitations of the theoretical foundation behind each approach. There is a general agreement between simulations and Pi Chamber observations, with simplifications of the CCN activation and droplet growth equation used in the simulations likely explaining specific differences.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Role of Deep Convection and Large-scale Circulation in Driving Model Spread in Low Cloud Feedback and Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity

This project aims to advance the understanding of the processes that drive the large uncertainties in climate change projections, use observations to constrain model physics and reduce the inter-model spread in equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). There are three major goals: 1) Characterize the representation of the physical pathways that link deep convection, large-scale circulation and low cloud feedback in CMIP6 model simulations and determine the relative contribution of each pathway to the CMIP6 model spread in low cloud feedback and ECS; 2) Use process-oriented diagnostics and multiple observations to evaluate CMIP6 model performance in capturing the observed cloud-circulation relation and deep convection characteristics including convective transition statistics and the bulk properties of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). Error decomposition in CMIP6 models will be performed. 3) Conduct E3SM short-range hindcasts following the DOE Cloud-Associated Parameterizations Testbed (CAPT) protocol to pinpoint specific model parameters/processes that are crucial to the representation of deep convection, circulation, clouds and the pathways that connect them. We will modify convective parameters in E3SM and analyze the perturbed physics experiments (PPEs) to isolate model parameters that are critical to the uncertainty of ECS.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Time-Lapse Integration at FWU: Fluids, Rock Physics, Numerical Model Integration, and Field Data Comparison

We present the current status of time-lapse seismic integration at the Farnsworth (FWU) CO2 WAG (water-alternating-gas) EOR (Enhanced Oil Recovery) project at Ochiltree County, northwest Texas. As a potential carbon sequestration mechanism, CO2 WAG projects will be subject to some degree of monitoring and verification, either as a regulatory requirement or to qualify for economic incentives. In order to evaluate the viability of time-lapse seismic as a monitoring method the Southwest Partnership (SWP) has conducted time-lapse seismic monitoring at FWU using the 3D Vertical Seismic Profiling (VSP) method. The efficacy of seismic time-lapse depends on a number of key factors, which vary widely from one application to another. Most important among these are the thermophysical properties of the original fluid in place and the displacing fluid, followed by the petrophysical properties of the rock matrix, which together determine the effective elastic properties of the rock fluid system. We present systematic analysis of fluid thermodynamics and resulting thermophysical properties, petrophysics and rock frame elastic properties, and elastic property modeling through fluid substitution using data collected at FWU. These analyses will be framed in realistic scenarios presented by the FWU CO2 WAG development. The resulting fluid/rock physics models will be applied to output from the calibrated FWU compositional reservoir simulation model to forward model the time-lapse seismic response. Modeled results are compared with field time-lapse seismic measurements and strategies for numerical model feedback/update are discussed. While mechanical effects are neglected in the work presented here, complementary parallel studies are underway in which laboratory measurements are introduced to introduce stress dependence of matrix elastic moduli.

4D↗

Using Convolutional Neural Network to Emulate Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Activity

Abstract It has been widely recognized that tropical cyclone (TC) genesis requires favorable large‐scale environmental conditions. Based on these linkages, numerous efforts have been made to establish an empirical relationship between seasonal TC activities and large‐scale environmental favorability in a quantitative way, which lead to conceptual functions such as the TC genesis index. However, due to the limited amount of reliable TC observations and complexity of the climate system, a simple analytic function may not be an accurate portrait of the empirical relationship between TCs and their ambiences. In this research, we use convolution neural networks (CNNs) to disentangle this complex relationship. To circumvent the limited amount of seasonal TC observation records, we implement transfer‐learning technique to train ensemble of CNNs first on suites of high‐resolution climate model simulations with realistic seasonal TC activities and large‐scale environmental conditions, and then on a state‐of‐the‐art reanalysis from 1950 to 2019. The trained CNNs can well reproduce the historical TC records and yields significant seasonal prediction skills when the large‐scale environmental inputs are provided by operational climate forecasts. Furthermore, by inputting the ensemble CNNs with 20th century reanalysis products and Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) simulations, we investigated TC variability and its changes in the past and future climates. Specifically, our ensemble CNNs project a decreasing trend of global mean TC activity in the future warming scenario, which is consistent with our future projections using high‐resolution climate model.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

Quantification of the effect of uncertainty on impurity migration in PISCES-A simulated with GITR

A Bayesian inference strategy has been used to estimate uncertain inputs to global impurity transport code (GITR) modeling predictions of tungsten erosion and migration in the linear plasma device, PISCES-A. This allows quantification of GITR output uncertainty based on the uncertainties in measured PISCES-A plasma electron density and temperature profiles (n e , T e ) used as inputs to GITR. The technique has been applied for comparison to dedicated experiments performed for high (4 × 10 22 m –2 s –1 ) and low (5 × 10 21 m –2 s –1 ) flux 250 eV He–plasma exposed tungsten (W) targets designed to assess the net and gross erosion of tungsten, and corresponding W impurity transport. The W target design and orientation, impurity collector, and diagnostics, have been designed to eliminate complexities associated with tokamak divertor plasma exposures (inclined target, mixed plasma species, re-erosion, etc) to benchmark results against the trace impurity transport model simulated by GITR. The simulated results of the erosion, migration, and re-deposition of W during the experiment from the GITR code coupled to materials response models are presented. Specifically, the modeled and experimental W I emission spectroscopy data for a 429.4 nm line and net erosion through the target and collector mass difference measurements are compared. Furthermore, the methodology provides predictions of observable quantities of interest with quantified uncertainty, allowing estimation of moments, together with the sensitivities to plasma temperature and density.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Modeling Study of Reduced Tubing Size Effects on Flow in Depleted Reservoir Natural Gas Storage Wells

This report explores the effects of tubing size reductions on natural gas flow from representative depleted reservoir underground storage wells and fields using basic models for coupled reservoir and pipe flow. This work was motivated by interest at the U.S. Department of Transportation, Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration, in evaluating the effects of tubing and packer as a potential safety upgrade to implement double-barrier systems to existing underground natural gas storage wells. Reservoir and well flow models were developed from widely accepted industry equations, verified against a commercial process simulator model, and validated against field data. The study utilized U.S. operator survey data to provide context and assure that modeling parameters including aver age deliverability rates for wells and fields, operating pressures, well depths, and storage capacities were all carefully considered to keep the modeling relevant to the known range of U.S. operations. The models generally found that wells and fields with inherently low deliverability were relatively insensitive to reductions in tubing diameter, primarily because the hydraulics in those cases were controlled by reservoir properties. For the high-producing wells and fields, the models found that reducing tubing diameter could produce significant reductions in deliverability, both at the field- and well-level. When put into context with occurrence data regarding average deliverability of fields and wells, it appears that most wells and most fields across the U.S. would experience deliverability reductions on the low end of what was simulated here, generally below 20%. For fields with moderate to high deliverability, reductions were generally larger, and could reach as high as 60% for the highest-producing wells and fields.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Reduced‐Order Probabilistic Emulation of Physics‐Based Ring Current Models: Application to RAM‐SCB Particle Flux

Abstract In this work, we address the computational challenge of large‐scale physics‐based simulation models for the ring current. Reduced computational cost allows for significantly faster than real‐time forecasting, enhancing our ability to predict and respond to dynamic changes in the ring current, valuable for space weather monitoring and mitigation efforts. Additionally, it can also be used for a comprehensive investigation of the system. Thus, we aim to create an emulator for the Ring current‐Atmosphere interactions Model with Self‐Consistent magnetic field (RAM‐SCB) particle flux that not only improves efficiency but also facilitates forecasting with reliable estimates of prediction uncertainties. The probabilistic emulator is built upon the methodology developed by Licata and Mehta (2023), https://doi.org/10.1029/2022sw003345 . A novel discrete sampling is used to identify 30 simulation periods over 20 years of solar and geomagnetic activity. Focusing on a subset of particle flux, we use Principal Component Analysis for dimensionality reduction and Long Short‐Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks to perform dynamic modeling. Hyperparameter space was explored extensively resulting in about 5% median symmetric accuracy across all data sets for one‐step dynamic prediction. Using a hierarchical ensemble of LSTMs, we have developed a reduced‐order probabilistic emulator (ROPE) tailored for time‐series forecasting of particle flux in the ring current. This ROPE offers accurate predictions of omnidirectional flux at a single energy with no pitch angle information, providing robust predictions on the test set with an error score below 11% and calibration scores under 8% with bias under 2% providing a significant speed up as compared to the full RAM‐SCB run.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Dispatch optimization of a concentrating solar power system under uncertain solar irradiance and energy prices

The integration of thermal energy storage into a concentrating solar power system allows for mitigating some of the risk associated with uncertain solar irradiance and uncertain energy prices. We solve a 48 h dispatch optimization model with continually updated conditional point forecasts of both direct normal irradiance (DNI) and electricity prices with a rolling-horizon scheme at hourly resolution over the course of a year. Joint, conditional forecasts for DNI and prices are formed using an autoregressive moving-average time series model with exogenous weather predictors. We guide dispatch using a mixed-integer programming model, but in order to evaluate performance we use the System Advisor Model (SAM) of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. SAM is a techno-economic simulation model that accounts for plant thermodynamics with higher fidelity. Our conditional DNI forecasts improve annual revenue by 4%–12% over using historical forecasts based on data from previous years. Conditional price forecasts improve annual revenue by 6%–19% in the real-time market over analogous historical forecasts. Updating these forecasts every six hours, rather than every 24 h, further improves annual revenue by 5%–6%. Here, we also investigate a method that values terminal inventory in our dispatch optimization model, again when used in a rolling-horizon scheme.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Modelling of electrostatic ion-scale turbulence in divertor tokamaks with the gyrokinetic code $\mathrm{COGENT}$

Here, continuum gyrokinetic simulations of electrostatic ion scale turbulence are presented for the case of a diverted (single-null) tokamak geometry. The simulation model, implemented in the finite-volume code COGENT, solves the long-wavelength limit of the full-F gyrokinetic equation for ion species coupled to a vorticity equation for electrostatic potential variations, where a fluid model is used for an electron response. The model describes the ion scale ion temperature gradient (ITG) and resistive drift modes as well as neoclassical ion physics effects. Different turbulence regimes are observed depending on the plasma profiles, and the roles of a self-consistent background electric field and an X-point geometry are explored. In particular, increasing the pedestal density gradient and the corresponding radial electric field is demonstrated to suppress the ITG turbulence, whereas the same edge plasma background can still be destabilized by the resistive modes when the plasma resistivity is increased. The effects of X-point geometry are assessed by comparing cross-separatrix simulations with counterpart calculations performed for a toroidal annulus geometry. For the simulation parameters considered, similar global behaviour is observed in both cases, whereas strong local suppression of turbulence fluctuations is demonstrated near the X-point for the case of a single-null geometry.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗