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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2020

Quantifying the impacts of climate change and extreme climate events on energy systems

Climate induced extreme weather events and weather variations will affect both the demand of energy and the resilience of energy supply systems. The specific potential impact of extreme events on energy systems has been difficult to quantify due to the unpredictability of future weather events. In this work, we develop a stochastic-robust optimization method to consider both low impact variations and extreme events. Applications of the method to 30 cities in Sweden, by considering 13 climate change scenarios, reveal that uncertainties in renewable energy potential and demand can lead to a significant performance gap (up to 34% for grid integration) brought by future climate variations and a drop in power supply reliability (up to 16%) due to extreme weather events. Finally, appropriate quantification of the climate change impacts will ensure robust operation of the energy systems and enable renewable energy penetration above 30% for a majority of the cities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Spatial noise correlations in a Si/SiGe two-qubit device from Bell state coherences

Here, we study spatial noise correlations in a Si/SiGe two-qubit device with integrated micromagnets. Our method relies on the concept of decoherence-free subspaces, whereby we measure the coherence time for two different Bell states, designed to be sensitive only to either correlated or anticorrelated noise, respectively. From these measurements we find weak correlations in low-frequency noise acting on the two qubits, while no correlations could be detected in high-frequency noise. We expect nuclear spin noise to have an uncorrelated nature. A theoretical model and numerical simulations give further insight into the additive effect of multiple independent (anti)correlated noise sources with an asymmetric effect on the two qubits as can result from charge noise. Such a scenario in combination with nuclear spins is plausible given the data and the known decoherence mechanisms. This work is highly relevant for the design of optimized quantum error correction codes for spin qubits in quantum dot arrays, as well as for optimizing the design of future quantum dot arrays.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2020

Valuation and cost reduction of behind-the-meter hydrogen production in Hawaii

A 250kW hydrogen electrolysis facility was recently installed at the Natural Energy Laboratory of Hawaii Authority's (NELHA's) campus. This facility that will begin operation in 2020 to produce hydrogen for fuel cell buses on the island to demonstrate of the application of hydrogen to decarbonize transportation. Given the size of the electrolysis station, it has the potential to significantly increase electricity costs for the campus, which is subject to energy and peak demand charges from the local utility. In this paper, we analyze the cost of hydrogen production at NELHA given the rate structure options available from the utility. Production costs are estimated using optimal versus constant scheduling of the facility to meet the buses’ demand. A model of the electrolysis station is used to capture changes in production efficiency over the power range in the optimization routine. The effects of combining the station and campus load versus standalone operation and increasing solar generation are also explored. The analyses surrounding this scenario show the importance of multiple factors on the potential profitability of hydrogen production in behind-the-meter applications and show trends that could have implications for other similar installations.

08 HYDROGEN↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

SimUAM: A Comprehensive Microsimulation Toolchain to Evaluate the Impact of Urban Air Mobility in Metropolitan Areas

Over the past several years, Urban Air Mobility (UAM) has galvanized enthusiasm from investors and researchers, marrying expertise in aircraft design, transportation, logistics, artificial intelligence, battery chemistry, and broader policymaking. However, two significant questions remain unexplored: (1) What is the value of UAM in a region’s transportation network? and (2) How can UAM be effectively deployed to realize and maximize this value to all stakeholders, including riders and local economies? To adequately understand the value proposition of UAM for metropolitan areas, the authors develop a holistic multi-modal toolchain, SimUAM, to model and simulate UAM and its impacts on travel behavior. This toolchain has several components: (1) Microsimulation Analysis for Network Traffic Assignment (MANTA): A fast, high-fidelity regional-scale traffic microsimulator, (2) VertiSim: Agranular, discrete-event vertiport and pedestrian simulator, (3) Flexible Engine for Fast-time Evaluation of Flight Environments (Fe3): A high-fidelity, trajectory-based aerial microsimulation. SimUAM, rooted in granular, GPU-based microsimulation, models millions of trips and their movements in the street network and in the air, producing interpretable and actionable performance metrics for UAM designs and deployments. Once the ground-air interface is modeled, the authors find that the market for UAM decreases across all network designs relative to models with static assumptions about transfer times. However, significant improvements can be made to balance the demand and optimize the networks for transfer time, likely increasing the number of benefited trips. The modularity, extensibility, and speed of the platform will allow for rapid scenario planning and sensitivity analysis, effectively acting as a detailed performance assessment tool.

urban air mobility↗

DOE OSTI2020

Leveraging Multiple Connected Traffic Light Signals in an Energy-Efficient Speed Planner

Connecting automated vehicles to traffic lights can lead to significant energy savings by enabling them to pass through intersections in an energy-efficient way without unnecessary stops. A cellular-based communication system connecting multiple traffic lights can help realize the full potential of energy-efficient driving at intersections. Thus, we propose a hierarchical speed planner that can leverage information from multiple connected traffic lights. The proposed speed planner consists of two modules: a green window selector and a reference trajectory generator. The green window selector, based on Dijkstra’s algorithm, finds a series of "green windows" for connected traffic lights that builds an energy-optimal path for vehicles to follow. The reference trajectory generator finds optimal entering times, based on the selected green window at each intersection, and then computes reference trajectories. Deriving and using analytical optimal entering speeds as a function of entering times allows us to guarantee the computational simplicity suitable for real-time implementation. We also demonstrate how to balance energy and traffic flow perspectives in the reference trajectory generator. Lastly, a high-fidelity simulation framework is used to evaluate the proposed speed planner and quantify the extent to which it can save energy in various real-world urban route scenarios.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2022

Multiscale simulation of integrated energy system and electricity market interactions

Accelerating the deep decarbonization of the world's electric grids requires the coordination of complex energy systems and infrastructures across timescales from seconds to decades. Here, we present a new multiscale simulation framework that integrates process- and grid-centric modeling paradigms to better design, operate, and control integrated energy systems (IESs), which combine multiple technologies, in wholesale energy markets. Traditionally, IESs are analyzed with a process-centric paradigm such as levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) or annualized net revenue, ignoring important interactions with electricity markets. This framework explicitly models the complex interactions between an IES's bidding, scheduling, and control decisions and the energy market's clearing and settlement processes, while incorporating operational uncertainties. Through two case studies, we show the importance of understanding and quantifying complex resource-grid interactions. In case study 1, we demonstrate that optimized bidding from one resource shifts the profit distribution for all energy systems in the market. This result suggests new and more flexible IES technologies can disrupt the economics of all market participants, possibly leading to accelerated retirements of less flexible resources. Interestingly, the optimized bidding has little impact on grid-level aggregate statistics, such as total generation costs and renewable penetration rate. While aggregate modeling strategies may remain valid under some IES adoption scenarios for analysis focused on regional outcomes, direct comparisons of IES technologies at specific locations without considering these interactions may lead to misleading or incorrect conclusions. In case study 2, we consider the design and flexible operation of IESs that hybridize conventional generators with energy storage. Through a sensitivity analysis, we find that as the size of the storage system increases, the total number of start-ups for coal- and natural gas-based IESs reduced by 25% and 33.6%, and the total thermal generator ramping (i.e., mileage) reduced by 86.5% and 62.5%, respectively. This shows the primary benefit of storage may not be reduced operational costs (which do not change significantly) but fewer start-ups and less ramping, which may greatly simplify the design, operation, and control of carbon capture systems. The new modeling and optimization capabilities from this work enable the coupling of rigorous, dynamic process models with grid-level production cost models to quantitatively identify the nuanced interdependencies across these vast timescales that must be addressed to realize clean, safe, and secure energy production. Moreover, the proposed general multiscale simulation framework is applicable to all IES technologies and can be easily extended to consider other energy carriers (e.g., hydrogen, ammonia) and energy infrastructures (e.g., natural gas pipelines).

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Soft Actor Critic Based Volt-VAR Co-optimization in Active Distribution Grids

Modern distribution networks are undergoing several technical challenges, such as voltage fluctuations, because of high penetration of distributed energy resources (DERs). This paper proposes a deep reinforcement learning (DRL)-based Volt VAR co-optimization technique for reducing voltage fluctuations as well as power loss under high penetration of DERs. In addition, the proposed approach minimizes the operational cost of the grid. A stochastic policy optimization based soft actor critic (SAC) agent is proposed to configure the optimal set-points of the reactive power outputs of the inverters. The performance of the proposed model is verified on the modified IEEE 34- and 123-bus systems and compared with a base case scenario with no reactive supply by inverters, and a local droop control approach. The results demonstrate that the proposed framework outperforms the conventional droop control method in improving the voltage profile, minimizing the network power loss, and reducing grid operational cost.

—Distribution grids, deep reinforcement learning, ↗

DOE OSTI2023

Hydroelectric Power and Hydrogen Production Integration

Hydropower-based hydrogen production could introduce opportunities for new revenue streams for hydropower plants, including from energy storage and regeneration as well as from sale of the hydrogen product to external markets. Hydrogen-based energy storage and regeneration could also help support Idaho Power’s decarbonization goals by decreasing dependence on fossil-based peaking power plants. Additionally, integration of hydrogen production with hydropower generation could help address the issue of low dissolved oxygen river water conditions that commonly accompany hydropower plant operations by utilizing the oxygen byproduct from an electrolytic hydrogen production process as a resource for mitigation of low dissolved oxygen water conditions. Comprehensive techno-economic analysis of the hybrid hydroelectric and hydrogen energy storage system has revealed critical insights into the pathways and considerations for optimizing the economic value and environmental benefits of such systems. Among the three identified pathways of natural gas blending, regeneration, and direct sale of hydrogen, the direct sale of hydrogen emerges as the most profitable, particularly given the current pricing dynamics of hydrogen and electricity. However, as we anticipate a future grid characterized by higher renewable energy penetration, the landscape may evolve, featuring lower average electricity prices, heightened fluctuations, and more significant seasonal variations. Consequently, the attractiveness of electricity regeneration through hydrogen and the benefits of long-duration hydrogen storage are expected to increase substantially in such a dynamic energy scenario. The careful selection of component sizes within the hybrid system proves to be paramount for ensuring cost-effectiveness. Notably, the size of the hydrogen market has emerged as a critical determinant for the optimal size of the electrolyzer. Hydrogen storage should be sized to meet energy shifting requirements. The appropriate size of the fuel cell/microturbine generator hinges on the shape of electricity prices and the available revenue streams derived from participating in grid services. Striking the right balance among these components is essential for maximizing the overall efficiency and profitability of the hydrogen facility. Furthermore, the by-product of electrolysis, namely oxygen, introduces an additional dimension to the system's functionality. The oxygen generated can be effectively utilized for dissolved oxygen (DO) mitigation, particularly with larger electrolyzer sizes capable of satisfying the complete oxygen demand for this purpose. While the economic benefits derived from saved oxygen purchase costs may be relatively modest compared to other revenue streams, the environmental advantages of repurposing oxygen for DO mitigation could help Idaho Power meet their environmental obligations. In addition to the identified factors shaping the viability of hybrid hydrogen production and hydroelectric generation, it is noteworthy that the integration of hydrogen energy storage offers a unique advantage during unusually wet years. In such periods of increased water inflow, the hydrogen storage capacity serves as a valuable supplement to the reservoir. By utilizing hydrogen energy storage as a complementary reservoir, the system gains flexibility in reservoir management when dealing with fluctuations in water availability.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2022

The impact of detection rate changes and correlations on random-coincidence background measurements

Coincidence detection of multiple particles emitted during an experiment can yield a new depth of understanding of the underlying process under study. However, the probability of detecting particles that are generated from the same physical event within a given coincidence time window is generally much lower than that of detecting particles that appear in the same coincidence time window, but were not created from the same physical event, and are therefore detected randomly in coincidence with each other. Thus, accurate and precise methods of measuring this random-coincidence background are essential for a wide variety of fields of science. A method to determine this background directly using the data themselves without any additional experimental run time or fake signals introduced in the data was recently established (O’Donnell, 2016). This method yields a statistical uncertainty on the random-coincidence background that is orders of magnitude smaller than that of the true coincidence data, though the potential for systematic errors of backgrounds from this method was never explored. In this work, we discuss common varieties of correlated and uncorrelated changes in the detection rates of each particle detected in an experiment. Here we demonstrate here that a correlation between particle detection rates from, for example, an incident particle beam that initiates a physical process of interest, creates systematic errors in the random-coincidence background measurement. We also discuss the impact of a variety of other realistic scenarios for rate changes in experiments. Lastly, a method is introduced to correct for errors in the random-coincidence background from any source, yielding an optimization between statistical precision and eliminating potential lingering systematic errors.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2024

Gravitational waves from primordial black hole evaporation with large extra dimensions

Abstract The spectra of gravitational waves from black hole evaporation generically peak at frequencies of order the Hawking temperature, making this signal ultra-high frequency for primordial black holes evaporating in the early universe. This motivates us to consider small black holes in theories with large extra dimensions, for which the peak frequency can be lowered substantially, since the true bulk Planck scaleM * can be much smaller than the effectiveM Pl . We study the emission of brane-localized gravitons during the Hawking evaporation of ultra-light primordial black holes in the context of theories with large extra dimensions, with the ultimate goal of computing the contribution to the stochastic gravitational wave background. To accurately model black hole evolution, we compute greybody factors for particles of spin-0, 1/2, 1, and 2 emitted on the brane and in the bulk, presuming the majority of emission proceeds during the Schwarzschild phase. We then compute the power spectrum and present day spectral density parameter for brane-localized gravitons contributing to a gravitational wave signal. We find that for an optimal choice of parameters, the peak frequency plateaus in the sub-MHz regime, within range of planned high-frequency gravitational wave detectors, making this scenario a target for detection once their sensitivity exceeds ΔN eff bounds.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Data-Driven Methodology for Contextual Unit Commitment Using Regression Residuals

Day after day, system operators are faced with the challenge of taking unit commitment (UC) decisions under uncertain net load conditions. The standard operating procedure for taking UC decisions begins by leveraging auxiliary data on covariates (such as the day of the week or latest weather information) to generate a point prediction for net load, which is used in solving a deterministic UC problem. Such an approach, however, is known to deliver a notoriously poor out-of-sample (OOS) performance, as it completely disregards the stochastic nature of net load. While stochastic programming models explicitly represent uncertainty, they mostly do so using a generic set of scenarios that neglect covariate observations, squandering useful auxiliary data that could be harnessed to glean insights into uncertainty. In this article, we discuss a contextual stochastic optimization approach to UC, which effectively exploits covariate observations while explicitly assessing uncertainty so as to boost the OOS performance of UC decisions. The key thrust of our approach is to leverage regression models, along with their empirical residuals, to set up and solve sample average approximation problems. Not only do we prove that our approach satisfies the requisite conditions for asymptotic optimality and consistency laid out in (Kannan et al., 2022), but we also assess its performance on several case studies conducted using real-world data collected in California ISO and New York ISO grids. In conclusion, results show that the proposed approach can significantly improve OOS performance compared to alternative methods proposed in the literature under varying dataset sizes.

Yurdakul, Ogun↗

DOE OSTI2024

The need for carbon-emissions-driven climate projections in CMIP7

Abstract. Previous phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) have primarily focused on simulations driven by atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs), for both idealized model experiments and climate projections of different emissions scenarios. We argue that although this approach was practical to allow parallel development of Earth system model simulations and detailed socioeconomic futures, carbon cycle uncertainty as represented by diverse, process-resolving Earth system models (ESMs) is not manifested in the scenario outcomes, thus omitting a dominant source of uncertainty in meeting the Paris Agreement. Mitigation policy is defined in terms of human activity (including emissions), with strategies varying in their timing of net-zero emissions, the balance of mitigation effort between short-lived and long-lived climate forcers, their reliance on land use strategy, and the extent and timing of carbon removals. To explore the response to these drivers, ESMs need to explicitly represent complete cycles of major GHGs, including natural processes and anthropogenic influences. Carbon removal and sequestration strategies, which rely on proposed human management of natural systems, are currently calculated in integrated assessment models (IAMs) during scenario development with only the net carbon emissions passed to the ESM. However, proper accounting of the coupled system impacts of and feedback on such interventions requires explicit process representation in ESMs to build self-consistent physical representations of their potential effectiveness and risks under climate change. We propose that CMIP7 efforts prioritize simulations driven by CO2 emissions from fossil fuel use and projected deployment of carbon dioxide removal technologies, as well as land use and management, using the process resolution allowed by state-of-the-art ESMs to resolve carbon–climate feedbacks. Post-CMIP7 ambitions should aim to incorporate modeling of non-CO2 GHGs (in particular, sources and sinks of methane and nitrous oxide) and process-based representation of carbon removal options. These developments will allow three primary benefits: (1) resources to be allocated to policy-relevant climate projections and better real-time information related to the detectability and verification of emissions reductions and their relationship to expected near-term climate impacts, (2) scenario modeling of the range of possible future climate states including Earth system processes and feedbacks that are increasingly well-represented in ESMs, and (3) optimal utilization of the strengths of ESMs in the wider context of climate modeling infrastructure (which includes simple climate models, machine learning approaches and kilometer-scale climate models).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1997

An Algorithm for Integrated Subsystem Embodiment and System Synthesis

Consider the statement,'A system has two coupled subsystems, one of which dominates the design process. Each subsystem consists of discrete and continuous variables, and is solved using sequential analysis and solution.' To address this type of statement in the design of complex systems, three steps are required, namely, the embodiment of the statement in terms of entities on a computer, the mathematical formulation of subsystem models, and the resulting solution and system synthesis. In complex system decomposition, the subsystems are not isolated, self-supporting entities. Information such as constraints, goals, and design variables may be shared between entities. But many times in engineering problems, full communication and cooperation does not exist, information is incomplete, or one subsystem may dominate the design. Additionally, these engineering problems give rise to mathematical models involving nonlinear functions of both discrete and continuous design variables. In this dissertation an algorithm is developed to handle these types of scenarios for the domain-independent integration of subsystem embodiment, coordination, and system synthesis using constructs from Decision-Based Design, Game Theory, and Multidisciplinary Design Optimization. Implementation of the concept in this dissertation involves testing of the hypotheses using example problems and a motivating case study involving the design of a subsonic passenger aircraft.

Lewis, Kemper↗

NASA NTRS2003

CCSDS File Delivery Protocol (CFDP): Why it's Useful and How it Works

Reliable delivery of data products is often required across space links. For example, a NASA mission will require reliable delivery of images produced by an on-board detector. Many missions have their own (unique) way of accomplishing this, requiring custom software. Many missions also require manual operations (e.g. the telemetry receiver software keeps track of what data is missing, and a person manually inputs the appropriate commands to request retransmissions). The Consultative Committee for Space Data Systems (CCSDS) developed the CCSDS File Delivery Protocol (CFDP) specifically for this situation. CFDP is an international standard communication protocol that provides reliable delivery of data products. It is designed for use across space links. It will work well if run over the widely used CCSDS Telemetry and Telecommand protocols. However, it can be run over any protocol, and will work well as long as the underlying protocol delivers a reasonable portion of the data. The CFDP receiver will autonomously determine what data is missing, and request retransmissions as needed. The CFDP sender will autonomously perform the requested transmissions. When the entire data product is delivered, the CFDP receiver will let the CFDP sender know that the transaction has completed successfully. The result is that custom software becomes standard, and manual operations become autonomous. This paper will consider various ways of achieving reliable file delivery, explain why CFDP is the optimal choice for use over space links, explain how the core protocol works, and give some guidance on how to best utilize CFDP within various mission scenarios. It will also touch on additional features of CFDP, as well as other uses for CFDP (e.g. the loading of on-board memory and tables).

Ray, Tim↗

NASA NTRS2006

Deep Space Network and Lunar Network Communication Coverage of the Moon

In this article, we describe the communication coverage analysis for the lunar network and the Earth ground stations. The first part of this article focuses on the direct communication coverage of the Moon from the Earth's ground stations. In particular, we assess the coverage performance of the Moon based on the existing Deep Space Network (DSN) antennas and the complimentary coverage of other potential stations at Hartebeesthoek, South Africa and at Santiago, Chile. We also address the coverage sensitivity based on different DSN antenna scenarios and their capability to provide single and redundant coverage of the Moon. The second part of this article focuses on the framework of the constrained optimization scheme to seek a stable constellation six relay satellites in two planes that not only can provide continuous communication coverage to any users on the Moon surface, but can also deliver data throughput in a highly efficient manner.

lunar network↗

NASA NTRS2011

Slitless Solar Spectroscopy

Spectrographs have traditionally suffered from the inability to obtain line intensities, widths, and Doppler shifts over large spatial regions of the Sun quickly because of the narrow instantaneous field of view. This has limited the spectroscopic analysis of rapidly varying solar features like, flares, CME eruptions, coronal jets, and reconnection regions. Imagers have provided high time resolution images of the full Sun with limited spectral resolution. In this paper we present recent advances in deconvolving spectrally dispersed images obtained through broad slits. We use this new theoretical formulation to examine the effectiveness of various potential observing scenarios, spatial and spectral resolutions, signal to noise ratio, and other instrument characteristics. This information will lay the foundation for a new generation of spectral imagers optimized for slitless spectral operation, while retaining the ability to obtain spectral information in transient solar events.

Davila, Joseph M.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Slitless Spectroscopy

Spectrographs have traditionally suffered from the inability to obtain line intensities, widths, and Doppler shifts over large spatial regions of the Sun quickly because of the narrow instantaneous field of view. This has limited the spectroscopic analysis of rapidly varying solar features like, flares, CME eruptions, coronal jets, and reconnection regions. Imagers have provided high time resolution images of the full Sun with limited spectral resolution. In this paper we present recent advances in deconvolving spectrally dispersed images obtained through broad slits. We use this new theoretical fomulation to examine the effectiveness of various potential observing scenarios, spatial and spectral resolutions, signal to noise ratio, and other instrument characteristics. This information will lay the foundation for a new generation of spectral imagers optimized for slitless spectral operation, while retaining the ability to obtain spectral information in transient solar events.

Davila, Joseph M.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Integrated Medical Model Project - Overview and Summary of Historical Application

Introduction: The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) Project represents one aspect of NASA's Human Research Program (HRP) to quantitatively assess medical risks to astronauts for existing operational missions as well as missions associated with future exploration and commercial space flight ventures. The IMM takes a probabilistic approach to assessing the likelihood and specific outcomes of one hundred medical conditions within the envelope of accepted space flight standards of care over a selectable range of mission capabilities. A specially developed Integrated Medical Evidence Database (iMED) maintains evidence-based, organizational knowledge across a variety of data sources. Since becoming operational in 2011, version 3.0 of the IMM, the supporting iMED, and the expertise of the IMM project team have contributed to a wide range of decision and informational processes for the space medical and human research community. This presentation provides an overview of the IMM conceptual architecture and range of application through examples of actual space flight community questions posed to the IMM project. Methods: Figure 1 [see document] illustrates the IMM modeling system and scenario process. As illustrated, the IMM computational architecture is based on Probabilistic Risk Assessment techniques. Nineteen assumptions and limitations define the IMM application domain. Scenario definitions include crew medical attributes and mission specific details. The IMM forecasts probabilities of loss of crew life (LOCL), evacuation (EVAC), quality time lost during the mission, number of medical resources utilized and the number and type of medical events by combining scenario information with in-flight, analog, and terrestrial medical information stored in the iMED. In addition, the metrics provide the integrated information necessary to estimate optimized in-flight medical kit contents under constraints of mass and volume or acceptable level of mission risk. Results and Conclusions: Historically, IMM simulations support Science and Technology planning, Exploration mission planning, and ISS program operations by supplying simulation support, iMED data information, and subject matter expertise to Crew Health and Safety and the HRP. Upcoming release of IMM version 4.0 seeks to provide enhanced functionality to increase the quality of risk decisions made using the IMM through a more accurate representation of the real world system.

Myers, J.↗