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At least 829 records · Page 46

ChemoMechanical Controls on Induced Seismicity

In recent years, seismicity rates in the US have dramatically risen due to increased activity in onshore oil and gas production. This project attempts to tie observations about induced seismicity to dehydration reactions in laumontite, a common mineral found in fault gouge in crystalline basement formations. It is the hypothesis of this study that in addition to pressurerelated changes in the in situ stress state, the injection of wastewater pushes new fluids into crystalline fault fracture networks that are not in chemical equilibrium with the mineral assemblages, particularly laumontite in fault gouge. Experiments were conducted under hydrothermal conditions where samples of laumontite were exposed to NaC1 brines at different pH values. After exposure to different fluid chemistries for 8 weeks at 90° C, we did not observe substantial alteration of laumontite. In hydrostatic compaction experiments, all samples deformed similarly in the presence of different fluids. Pore pressure decreases were observed at the start of a 1 week hold at 85° C in a 1M NaC1 pH 3 solution, suggesting that acidic fluids might stabilize pore pressures in basement fault networks. Friction experiments on laumontite and kaolinite powders showed both materials have similar coefficients of friction. Mixtures with partial kaolinite content showed a slight decrease in the coefficient of friction, which could be sufficient to trigger slip on critically stressed basement faults.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Near-Field Imaging of Shallow Chemical Detonations in Granite using Change Detection Methods of Borehole Seismic Data

As part of the Source Physics Experiment (SPE) Phase I shallow chemical detonation series, multiple surface and borehole active-source seismic campaigns were executed to perform high resolution imaging of seismic velocity changes in the granitic substrate. Cross-correlation data processing methods were implemented to efficiently and robustly perform semi-automated change detection of first-arrival times between campaigns. The change detection algorithm updates the arrival times, and consequently the velocity model, of each campaign. The resulting tomographic imagery reveals the evolution of the subsurface velocity structure as the detonations progressed.

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Pararhombi: Parallel Implementation of 3-D Seismic Wave Propagation in Orthorhombic Media

Many earth materials and minerals are seismically anisotropic; however, due to the weakness of anisotropy and for simplicity, the earth is often approximated as an isotropic medium. Specific circumstances, such as in shales, tectonic fabrics, or oriented fractures, for example, require the use of anisotropic simulations in order to accurately model the earth. This report details the development of a new massively parallel 3-D full seismic waveform simulation algorithm within the principle coordinate system of an orthorhombic material, which is a specific form of anisotropy common in layered, fractured media. The theory and implementation of Pararhombi is described along with verification of the code against other solutions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

PF-4 Seismic Performance Reassessment, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Project Charter and Integrated Project Team

This report presents the charter of the Integrated Project Team for conducting the PF-4 Seismic Performance Reassessment (P-SPRa) Project. The overall objective of the project is to compute the seismic performance of the PF-4 structure. The credited safety feature of the structure is to provide tertiary confinement of hazardous materials. This document highlights major tasks to be performed as part of the project. It includes a project schedule and a work breakdown structure dictionary. It also includes roles and responsibilities for key project personnel.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Near-Field Imaging of Shallow Chemical Detonations in Granite using Change Detection Methods of Borehole Seismic Data

As part of the Source Physics Experiment (SPE) Phase I shallow chemical detonation series, multiple surface and borehole active-source seismic campaigns were executed to perform high-resolution imaging of seismic velocity changes in the granitic substrate. Cross-correlation data processing methods were implemented to efficiently and robustly perform semi-automated change detection of first-arrival times between campaigns. The change detection algorithm updates the arrival times, and consequently the velocity model, of each campaign. The resulting tomographic imagery reveals the evolution of the subsurface velocity structure as the detonations progressed.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Evaluating and Improving the USGS 3D Seismic Velocity Model in the San Francisco East Bay by Integrating Earthquake Ground-Motion Simulations and Noise-Derived Empirical Green's Functions

Simulations of scenario earthquake ground motions play an increasingly important role in improving seismic hazard assessment. In the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA) the USGS has developed a 3D geologic/seismic model. Simulations of large magnitude (M) 7 Hayward Fault scenario earthquakes show dramatic differences in peak ground motions across the fault, arising from wavespeed differences, which highlights the need to evaluate the model. Our comparison of observed and simulated waveforms from M 4 SFBA earthquakes reveals bias in the travel times of direct S-waves for paths crossing the East Bay Hills, east of Hayward Fault, suggests that the shear wavespeeds in the upper crust of the USGS 3D model are too low, resulting in large delay times of S-wave arrivals at the East Bay Hills. We also retrieved noise-derived Green's functions (NGFs) and examined the path-specific bias in the USGS 3D model. We systematically compared synthetic waveforms with the 3D velocity model and observed NGFs. Our result shows that the time lags between the synthetic and observed data ranging from 2-5 seconds for the ray paths propagating the East Bay Hills. This result also suggests that the SFBA 3D model generates arrivals that are too slow. Additionally, we evaluate the Rayleigh-wave ellipticity to evaluate the subsurface velocity beneath seismic stations. A lateral variation in Rayleigh-wave ellipticity across the Hayward fault is observed, which will contribute to refine the SFBA 3D velocity model.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Advanced Seismic Fragility Modeling using Nonlinear Soil-Structure Interaction Analysis

The goal of this effort is to compare the seismic fragilities of a nuclear power plant system obtained by a traditional seismic probabilistic risk assessment (SPRA) and an advanced SPRA that utilizes Nonlinear Soil-Structure Interaction (NLSSI) analysis. Soil-structure interaction (SSI) response analysis for a traditional SPRA involves the linear analysis, which ignores geometric nonlinearities (i.e., soil and structure are glued together and the soil material undergoes tension when the structure uplifts). The NLSSI analysis will consider geometric nonlinearities.

31274, LWRS↗

Screening IMS Seismic Detections using Dynamic Correlation Processor: Progress report for 2020

LLNL completed the FY20 workplan entailing application of the Dynamic Correlation Processor (DCP) to International Monitoring System (IMS) primary seismic data in 2019 and 2020. The effective analysis period was curtailed to January 1 through November 12, 2019 due to a data compression change that rendered later data unusable. Fixing the data compression error is a priority for our data source, and we plan to extend the period of data analysis when the fix is implemented. We found that the percentage overlap between detections generated by the International Data Centre (IDC) DFX software and detections generated by DCP varied widely by station. Overlap is 30-40% at some stations, suggesting that a large percentage of DFX detections could be screened (removed) from the detection-event association algorithm. However, detection overlap was much lower, a few percent, at many stations and the percentage overlap was low at stations known to have many mines and other local sources of seismicity. Unexpectedly low detection overlap at many stations prompted us to examine results for the ARCES station in detail. There is considerable mine activity near ARCES, but our initial FY20 analysis found only ~2% DCP/DFX detection overlap. Differences in the pre-processing (e.g. beam recipes) used by DCP and DFX appear to be the cause of low detection overlap at ARCES. DCP uses wideband filters to improve detector robustness and the IDC uses narrow-band pre-filtering to improve sensitivity. After reprocessing ARCES using the IDC beam recipe, DCP/DFX overlap increased to ~74%. This result shows that we must reprocess the IMS network using the IDC station-specific beam recipes if we are to effectively screen DFX detections and improve automatic event building performance at the IDC.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A Multi-Instance learning Framework for Seismic Detectors

In this report, we construct and test a framework for fusing the predictions of a ensemble of seismic wave detectors. The framework is drawn from multi-instance learning and is meant to improve the predictive skill of the ensemble beyond that of the individual detectors. We show how the framework allows the use of multiple features derived from the seismogram to detect seismic wave arrivals, as well as how it allows only the most informative features to be retained in the ensemble. The computational cost of the "ensembling" method is linear in the size of the ensemble, allowing a scalable method for monitoring multiple features/transformations of a seismogram. The framework is tested on teleseismic and regional p-wave arrivals at the IMS (International Monitoring System) station in Warramunga, NT, Australia and the PNSU station in University of Utah's monitoring network.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Seismic Wave Coherence as a Function of Propagation Azimuth at the Large-N Array, Source Physics Experiment

The Large-N array of the Source Physics Experiment (SPE) consisted, in part, of 496 vertical component geophones that recorded the seismic wave field produced by the SPE-5 buried chemical explosion. Preliminary observations of the data showed a large degree of azimuthally dependent seismic scattering, particularly for post-P wave arrivals, hindering surface wave analysis. We document and quantify the azimuthal dependence of the wave field scattering in order to guide future coherent wave field processing methods. Specifically, we form three linear arrays, with different nominal source-receiver azimuths, by extracting a subset of the Large-N stations. For each linear array, we evaluate wave field coherence as a function of frequency and inter-station distance. For P waves, we observe that there is a strong azimuthal dependence of wave coherence, with the highest degree of scattering occurring in a northwest/southeast propagation direction. This suggests that there are structural elements beneath the Large-N array that affect the direct source to receiver body wave ray path. We also observe that the scattering of the post-P energy displays a coherence that is dependent on both frequency and azimuthal direction. This energy is preferentially coherent in the southwest-to-northeast propagation direction, consistent with the strike of the steeply dipping fault (Boundary fault) adjacent to the northeast side of the Large-N array, but only at low frequencies (<10 Hz). At higher frequencies, the azimuthally dependent wave coherence diminishes, suggesting that the scattering of high frequency portion of the post-P wave field is independent of the large-scale geologic structure at this site.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Recovery and calibration of legacy analog data from the Leo Brady Seismic Network for the Source Physics Experiment

The Leo Brady Seismic Network (LBSN) was established in 1960 by Sandia National Laboratories for monitoring underground nuclear tests (UGTs) at the Nevada Test Site— renamed in 2010 to the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS). The LBSN has been in various configurations throughout its existence, but it has been generally comprised of four to six stations at regional distances from the NNSS with evenly spaced azimuthal coverage. Between 1962 and the early 1980s, the LBSN—and a sister network operated by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory—were the most comprehensive U.S. source of regional seismic data of UGTs. During the pre-digital era, LBSN data were transmitted as frequency-modulated (FM) audio over telephone lines to the NTS and recorded in analog on hi-fi 8-track AMPEX tapes. These tapes have been stored in temperature-stable buildings or bunkers on the NNSS and Kirtland Air Force Base in Albuquerque, NM for decades and contain the sole record of this irreplaceable data from the analog era; full waveforms of UGTs during this time were never routinely converted to digital form. We have been developing a process over the past few years to recover and calibrate data from these tapes, converting them from FM audio to digital waveforms in ground motion units. The calibration of legacy data from the LBSN is still ongoing. To date, we have digitized tapes from 592 separate UGTs. As a proof-of-concept, we calibrated data from the BOXCAR event.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Approximating and incorporating model uncertainty in an inversion for seismic source functions: Preliminary results

We present preliminary work on propagating model uncertainty into the estimation of the time domain source time functions of the seismic source. Our method is based on an estimated model covariance function, which we estimate from the data. The model covariance function is then used to construct a suite of surrogate Greens functions which we use in a Monte Carlo type inversion scheme. The result is a probability density function of the six independent source time functions, each of which corresponds to an individual component of the seismic moment tensor. We compare the results of our method with those obtained using a computationally expensive finite difference Monte Carlo method and find that our new method produces results that are deficient in low frequencies. The advantage of our new method, which we term the Karhunen-Loeve Monte Carlo (KLMC) method, is that is several orders of magnitude faster than our current method, which uses a finite difference scheme to produce the suite of forward models.

42 ENGINEERING↗

The Modeled Performance of the ORNL Matched Filter Detector for Seismic Signatures of Multi-Axle Tractor Trailers

The MINOS program seeks methods to passively monitor the transfer of special materials, which are reproducible and quantitatively defensible. To date, we have demonstrated that short-period seismometers deployed near vehicle tracks can detect and monitor signatures of multi-axle tractor trailers impacting small road obstacles as means to detect and identify some transfer activities. In this report, we model the seismic velocity signal output from a tractor-trailer impacting a small obstacle (a template waveform) to parameterize a matched filter that identifies signals with similar shapes buried in noise, and that indicate repeating events (target waveforms). We then use this model to perform thousands of synthetic experiments, in which we apply our detector to identify noisy waveforms output from a similarly modeled vehicle data set; we process all data in the same manner as we process real data collected from the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) seismic network. Our experiments, while limited, reveal that the matched filter shows a high discrimination capability, and at very low SNR values (at visibility thresholds). This means that template waveforms can match target waveforms that are sourced by models that share the same vehicle speed (target vehicles), and have a low probability of mis-identification. In particular, a matched filter designed to detect a five-axle tractor-trailer will reliably identify that target vehicle down to an SNR of 11.25 dB, and within ±0.1 km/hr, while successfully screening target vehicles with three axles.

42 ENGINEERING↗

3D orthorhombic earth model effects on seismic source characterization

Most earth materials are anisotropic with regard to seismic wave-speeds, especially materials such as shales, or where oriented fractures are present. However, the base assumption for many numerical simulations is to treat earth materials as isotropic media. This is done for simplicity, the apparent weakness of anisotropy in the far field, and the lack of well-characterized anisotropic material properties for input into numerical simulations. One approach for addressing the higher complexity of actual geologic regions is to model the material as an orthorhombic medium. We have developed an explicit time-domain, finite-difference (FD) algorithm for simulating three-dimensional (3D) elastic wave propagation in a heterogeneous orthorhombic medium. The objective of this research is to investigate the errors and biases that result from modeling a non-isotropic medium as an isotropic medium. This is done by computing “observed data” by using synthetic, anisotropic simulations with the assumption of an orthorhombic, anisotropic earth model. Green’s functions for an assumed isotropic earth model are computed and then used an inversion designed to estimate moment tensors with the “observed” data. One specific area of interest is how shear waves, which are introduced in an anisotropic model even for an isotropic explosion, affect the characterization of seismic sources when isotropic earth assumptions are made. This work is done in support of the modeling component of the Source Physics Experiment (SPE), a series of underground chemical explosions at the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Bell Creek Test Site: 3-D Seismic and Characterization Report

The Plains CO 2 Reduction (PCOR) Partnership, led by the Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC), is working with Denbury Onshore (Denbury) to evaluate the effectiveness of large-scale injection of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) into the Bell Creek oil field for CO 2 enhanced oil recovery (EOR) and to study long-term incidental CO 2 storage. A technical team that includes Denbury, the EERC, and others are conducting activities to determine the baseline reservoir characteristics for development of a geologic model for predictive simulations and to serve as a comparison to time-lapse data as they are acquired. One of the activities was the acquisition and interpretation of a baseline three-dimensional (3-D) surface seismic survey acquired over a major portion of the field which is the subject of this report. The interpretation will be used to advance the field characterization effort. The geophysical data will be integrated with the EERC’s geologic model to improve its accuracy. In the future, when paired with at least one subsequent 3-D surface seismic survey, the data difference will provide a direct indication of where the CO 2 has migrated within the reservoir and aid in monitoring, verification, and accounting goals.

02 PETROLEUM↗

GraphAlign: Graph-Enabled Machine Learning for Seismic Event Filtering

This report summarizes results from a 2 year effort to improve the current automated seismic event processing system by leveraging machine learning models that can operated over the inherent graph data structure of a seismic sensor network. Specifically, the GraphAlign project seeks to utilize prior information on which stations are more likely to detect signals originating from particular geographic regions to inform event filtering. To date, the GraphAlign team has developed a Graphical Neural Network (GNN) model to filter out false events generated by the Global Associator (GA) algorithm. The algorithm operates directly on waveform data that has been associated to an event by building a variable sized graph of station waveforms nodes with edge relations to an event location node. This builds off of previous work where random forest models were used to do the same task using hand crafted features. The GNN model performance was analyzed using an 8 week IMS/IDC dataset, and it was demonstrated that the GNN outperforms the random forest baseline. We provide additional error analysis of which events the GNN model performs well and poorly against concluded by future directions for improvements.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

BayesMT: A Probabilistic Bayesian Framework for the Seismic Moment Tensor

Moment tensors (MTs) have long been used in earthquake and explosion source analysis, and there has been a renewed interest in how they can inform us about the seismic source, particularly in the geophysical monitoring community due to its application in event identification and yield analysis. However, parameter uncertainties in seismic MT inversion are rarely available. The inverse procedure often does not quantify MT model errors such as event location, data noise and Earth model that are essential for estimating solution robustness. To address this need, we propose to adopt the Bayesian probabilistic framework to incorporate uncertainties in MT inversions. In this study, we present the theoretical background of a probabilistic Bayesian framework for MT inversion accounting for model and measurements errors and illustrate the implementation of the method using a synthetic example.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Adjoint Waveform Tomography for Next Generation Seismic Analyses and Monitoring

The development of methods and capabilities to compute complete waveform simulations in three-dimensional (3D) Earth models along with adjoint methods for computing the fully 3D sensitivity kernels in the 2000's set the stage for new advances in seismic imaging. I believe that the full benefits of adjoint waveform tomography (AWT) are not yet fully realized and this will be an important direction for the future of seismic tomography.

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