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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Validation of Fitness for Duty Standards Using Pre- and Post-Flight Capsule Egress and Suited Functional Performance Tasks in Simulated Reduced Gravity

The transition between gravity environments will involve one of the most complex, high-risk phases of exploration missions. The reduced functional capacity caused by physiological deconditioning adaptations in microgravity coupled with the stressors of re-entry into partial gravity environments will increase risks to crew, even with rigorous adherence to inflight countermeasures. Specifically, two high-risk scenarios may be required to be performed soon after gravity transitions: 1) nominal and/or emergency unassisted capsule egress task after return to Earth, and 2) planetary extravehicular activity (EVA) soon after landing on Mars or the Moon. Quantification of crewmember’s functional performance after long-duration spaceflight is necessary to inform concepts of operations for future exploration missions. The overarching aim of this study is to quantify post-landing functional performance with deconditioning after long-duration ISS missions. This study is broken down into two phases. Phase 1 includes a pilot study to assess the overall feasibility and demonstrate the capability to perform mission-like tasks shortly after landing. Phase 2, the Egress Fitness study, which is part of the Complement of Integrated Protocols for Human Exploration Research (CIPHER), uses a task-based approach to characterize functional performance in long-duration ISS crewmembers before flight and shortly after return to Earth. The pilot and full Egress Fitness study includes pre-flight and post-flight testing of simulated emergency egress out of a functional capsule mockup and a Mars gravity EVA simulation at the Active Response Gravity Offload System (ARGOS) facility. The EVA simulation tasks include suit donning, hatch egress, ladder descent, task board cable operations, baggage transfer over sand/rocky regolith, alignment with a rear entry port, and suit egress. The post-flight simulated capsule egress test occurs 1–4 h after landing and the planetary EVA simulation occurs 18–36 h after landing. The full CIPHER Egress Fitness study has additional pre-flight sessions, longer EVA tasks that include traverse and geology sampling, and post-flight sessions on R+1, 4, and 8 to characterize the timeframe of recovery. The Pilot Egress Fitness study has completed baseline and post-flight testing on four crewmembers. All subjects were able to complete the post-flight simulated planetary EVA; three subjects were able to complete the postflight capsule egress simulation. CIPHER study data collection is ongoing. This study will quantify post-landing functional performance in operationally relevant simulations to help inform future planetary concepts of operations shortly after landing.

egress↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

CIPHER: Egress Fitness

The transition between gravity environments will involve one of the most complex, high-risk phases of exploration missions. The reduced functional capacity caused by physiological deconditioning adaptations in microgravity coupled with the stressors of re-entry into partial gravity environments will increase risks to crew, even with rigorous adherence to inflight countermeasures. Specifically, two high-risk scenarios may be required to be performed soon after gravity transitions: 1) nominal and/or emergency unassisted capsule egress task after return to Earth, and 2) planetary extravehicular activity (EVA) soon after landing on Mars or the Moon. Quantification of crewmember’s functional performance after long-duration spaceflight is necessary to inform concepts of operations for future exploration missions. The overarching aim of this study is to quantify post-landing functional performance with deconditioning after long-duration ISS missions. This study is broken down into two phases. Phase 1 includes a pilot study to assess the overall feasibility and demonstrate the capability to perform mission-like tasks shortly after landing. Phase 2, the Egress Fitness study, which is part of the Complement of Integrated Protocols for Human Exploration Research (CIPHER), uses a task-based approach to characterize functional performance in long-duration ISS crewmembers before flight and shortly after return to Earth. The pilot and full Egress Fitness study includes pre-flight and post-flight testing of simulated emergency egress out of a functional capsule mockup and a Mars gravity EVA simulation at the Active Response Gravity Offload System (ARGOS) facility. The EVA simulation tasks include suit donning, hatch egress, ladder descent, task board cable operations, baggage transfer over sand/rocky regolith, alignment with a rear entry port, and suit egress. The post-flight simulated capsule egress test occurs 1–4 h after landing and the planetary EVA simulation occurs 18–36 h after landing. The full CIPHER Egress Fitness study has additional pre-flight sessions, longer EVA tasks that include traverse and geology sampling, and post-flight sessions on R+1, 4, and 8 to characterize the timeframe of recovery. Pilot Egress Fitness has completed baseline and post-flight testing on four crewmembers. That study remains open. Originally this was to cover the Boeing CFT mission, but now also includes private astronauts on commercial spaceflights. CIPHER study data collection is ongoing with 2 subjects completed and 4 additional subjects consented. This study will quantify post-landing functional performance in operationally relevant simulations to help inform fitness for duty standards and future planetary concepts of operations shortly after landing.

Jason Norcross↗
DOE OSTI2021

Smart Semi-Supervised Accumulation of Large Repositories for Industrial Control Systems Device Information

Industrial Control Systems device manufacturers frequently add new features to improve their product performance. Oftentimes, these changes are mainly vendor-driven initiatives, and customers may not be aware of the full impact of these new capabilities on their cybersecurity posture. In the energy sector, this can lead to considerable dissonance between vendor-provided cybersecurity claims and a customer’s responsibility for Operation Technology cybersecurity compliance. Thus, the resulting dynamic verification burden is shifted towards the customer and may pose a significant cybersecurity risk to the energy sector landscape. We found that there is very limited research into cybersecurity auditing for Operational Technology. However, a solution is needed for vetting the vendor-supplied feature claims and their adherence to cybersecurity requirements and standards. We are presently engaged in an effort to develop such a system. This paper demonstrates one vital aspect of this effort in proposing an end-to-end framework to accumulate a large repository of ICS device information for this vetting system, curate the dataset, and conduct extensive processing. This framework is designed to use web scraping, data analytics and Natural Language Processing (NLP) techniques to identify vendor websites, automate the collection of website-accessible documents and automatically derive metadata from them for identification of product documents relevant to the repository. We have found that this automated approach to vendor identification, document extraction into a product repository, and NLP pre-processing is unique and has not been previously presented in the literature. The preliminary work shows that this is feasible and can produce reliable results with minimum supervision. Future work will be built upon this foundation in order to achieve semi-supervised vetting of device technical information – a vital capability for ensuring that vendor-claimed device cybersecurity capabilities match industry requirements.

Ameri, Kimia↗
DOE OSTI2025

Finch: Toxicity Dose Response Curve Prediction of Chemical Compounds and Mixtures

A paradigm shift in chemical risk assessment is emphasizing mixture testing over single compound analysis, eliminating animal testing, and adopting advanced modeling approaches to understand mixture activity profiles. However, existing computational models largely focus on single chemicals, with few effective solutions for modeling complex mixtures that account for synergistic or antagonistic effects and multiple Modes of Action (MoA). Conventional methods like concentration addition (CA) and independent action (IA) are insufficient for this task as they are designed for simplistic interactions and struggle to account for the dynamic and multifaceted nature of chemical mixtures, such as overlapping MoA and non-linear interactions. Finch offers a novel approach utilizing deep learning (DL) embeddings and multi-task quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) models to improve chemical exposure prediction. By leveraging molecular descriptors, physiochemical properties, and large language model (LLM) embeddings from SMILES inputs, Finch preserves critical information in a latent space thereby enhancing predictive accuracy. The multi-task learning aspect of Finch is highly advantageous, as it simultaneously optimizes multiple loss functions, leveraging all available data across tasks to develop generalized representations that effectively capture complex ingredient interactions within mixtures.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Potential ecological impacts of climate intervention by reflecting sunlight to cool Earth

As the effects of anthropogenic climate change become more severe, several approaches for deliberate climate intervention to reduce or stabilize Earth’s surface temperature have been proposed. Solar radiation modification (SRM) is one potential approach to partially counteract anthropogenic warming by reflecting a small proportion of the incoming solar radiation to increase Earth’s albedo. While climate science research has focused on the predicted climate effects of SRM, almost no studies have investigated the impacts that SRM would have on ecological systems. The impacts and risks posed by SRM would vary by implementation scenario, anthropogenic climate effects, geographic region, and by ecosystem, community, population, and organism. Complex interactions among Earth’s climate system and living systems would further affect SRM impacts and risks. We focus here on stratospheric aerosol intervention (SAI), a well-studied and relatively feasible SRM scheme that is likely to have a large impact on Earth’s surface temperature. We outline current gaps in knowledge about both helpful and harmful predicted effects of SAI on ecological systems. Desired ecological outcomes might also inform development of future SAI implementation scenarios. In addition to filling these knowledge gaps, increased collaboration between ecologists and climate scientists would identify a common set of SAI research goals and improve the communication about potential SAI impacts and risks with the public. Without this collaboration, forecasts of SAI impacts will overlook potential effects on biodiversity and ecosystem services for humanity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

BioSecure Digital Twin: Manufacturing Innovation and Cybersecurity Resilience

U.S. national security, prosperity, economy, and well-being require secure, flexible, and resilient Biopharmaceutical Manufacturing. The COVID-19 pandemic reaffirmed that the biomedical production value-chain is vulnerable to disruption and has been under attack from sophisticated nation-state adversaries. Current cyber defenses are inadequate, and the integrity of critical production systems and processes are inherently vulnerable to cyber-attacks, human error, and supply chain disruptions. The following chapter explores how a BioSecure Digital Twin will improve U.S. manufacturing resilience and preparedness to respond to these hazards by significantly improving monitoring, integrity, security, and agility of our manufacturing infrastructure and systems. The BioSecure Digital Twin combines a scalable manufacturing framework with a robust platform for monitoring and control to increase U.S. biopharma manufacturing resilience. Then, the chapter discusses some of the inherent vulnerabilities and challenges at the nexus of health and advanced manufacturing. Next, the chapter highlights that as the Pandemic evolves, we need agility and resilience to overcome significant obstacles. This section highlights an innovative application of Cyber Informed Engineering to developing and deploying a BioSecure Digital Twin to improve the resilience and security of the biopharma industrial supply chain and production processes. Finally, the chapter concludes with a process framework to complement the Digital Twin platform, called the Biopharma (Observe, Orient, Decide, Act) OODA Loop Framework (BOLF), a four-step approach to decision-making outputs from the Digital Twin. The BOLF will help end users leverage twin technology by distilling the available information, focusing the data on context, and rapidly making the best decision while remaining cognizant of changes that can be made as more data becomes available.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Quantifying the impact of climate change on erosion - 20397

The New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) is the owner of the Western New York Nuclear Service Center (WNYNSC), a 1,351-ha (3,338-ac) site located approximately 48 km (30 mi) south of Buffalo, New York. In 1962, Nuclear Fuel Services, Inc. (NFS) entered into Agreements with the Atomic Energy Commission and New York State to construct the first commercial reprocessing plant of nuclear fuel in the United States. NFS, a private company, built and operated the spent fuel reprocessing plant and waste disposal facilities, processing 640 Mg (metric tons, or 705 short tons) of spent nuclear fuel from 1966 to 1972 under an Atomic Energy Commission license. Nuclear fuel reprocessing operations ended in 1972 and never reopened, leaving behind radioactive and chemical wastes. Erosion can play an important role in the fate and transport of waste at sites where disposal of long-lived waste is anticipated. The statistical characterization of key processes related to erosion is essential to the understanding of site stability through time. One of the key processes governing erosion is extreme precipitation and it is critical that trends in the distribution of extreme precipitation events through time be represented. The evidence of climate change is increasingly well documented and projected impacts on extreme precipitation events should be incorporated in performance assessment studies when relevant. Not evaluating future climate states in a performance assessment is contradictory to good modeling practice. Specifically, excluding climate change limits development of modeling information that could aid in effective decision making. The current climate literature provides both observational evidence and climate model projections of climate trends and/or climate change in the late 20. and early 21. centuries for North America and the northeast United States. In this work, this information was used to assess the impacts of potential changes in climate on erosion processes. The goal was to understand how projections of future climate relate to the performance of the WNYNSC through time. In the first stage of this work multi-temporal historical aerial images were analyzed in conjunction with orthophotography and Lidar data to develop probability distributions for variables representing important erosion processes. The information from these analyses was then used in conjunction with simulated data from the West Valley Erosion Working Group (EWG). Analysis of EWG simulations provides estimates for the change in erosion rates through time that is driven by changes in climate. The time-varying rates of erosion change were applied to the historical aerial imagery data in order to inform time-varying rates of erosion that are driven by changes in climate. Ultimately, this process resulted in the identification of locations for features like gully heads using both the Lidar dataset and projection of the estimated location from the historical aerial photo under consideration back to the Lidar dataset. The distance between the estimate of the location from the historical image and that of the Lidar dataset was the estimated distance the feature has moved. This distance was then divided by the number of years between the Lidar dataset and the year of the historical aerial image of interest to get a rate of movement through time. This was done for several dozen points on each historical aerial image. The analyses from the EWG were used to characterize the relative impact of climate change on the erosion rates. This relative impact was quantified by comparing the LEM based estimates of erosion that were derived using historical climate data with LEM based estimates of erosion that were derived using projections of future climate. The relative increase in the erosion rates was then applied to the historical estimates of erosion derived from the analysis of the historical aerial imagery. This approach was used since the LEM-based estimated of the historical erosion rates from the past century have a bias towards underestimating erosion. This underestimation is hypothesized to be a consequence of an inability of the LEMs to account for the impacts of land-use change (i.e. deforestation) which had been shown to significantly increase erosion in similar Northern hardwood forest ecosystems. In summary, gully head retreat rate and gully widening rate were characterized using statistical probability distributions from the historical aerial image analysis. Simulated data from the EWG was used to estimate the climatically-driven changes in erosion rates through time. The changes through time from the EWG were applied to the gully head retreat rate and gully widening rate characterized using the historical aerial image analysis. This information can be used to inform PPA models to project future risks from a given site. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2023

Technical Specification Surveillance Interval Extension Using Self-Diagnostics

As part of the Light Water Reactor Sustainability program, an ongoing research effort is being conducted on technical specifications surveillance interval extension of digital equipment in nuclear power plants. The research team is led by Idaho National Laboratory and includes Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Technology Resources, and Oak Ridge National Laboratory. This research focuses on developing methods for applying the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC)–approved guidance to implement a licensee-controlled, risk-informed surveillance frequency change program in digital instrumentation and control (I&C) systems that include self-diagnostics and online monitoring (OLM) capabilities. Although approved methods exist for extending technical specifications (TS) surveillance test intervals (STIs) for general equipment, including analog I&C equipment, gaps remain in technology and guidance on crediting newer digital equipment’s internal self-diagnostics and OLM characteristics. Previous research described a general methodology for crediting internal self-diagnostics for extending surveillance test intervals. The methodology used self-diagnostics to detect—and credited recovery from—failure. Self-diagnostics were also applied for performance monitoring during the extended surveillance interval. This report discusses the status of recent activities to evaluate the previously developed methodology using a pilot study. Although both a utility partner for a pilot study and a specific digital asset were identified in FY2020, delays in obtaining proprietary information resulted in a limited ability to fully evaluate the methodology, and further interactions were complicated by the COVID pandemic. Therefore, at that time, the use of public-domain information—along with current processes for surveillance interval extension through a surveillance frequency control program—identified the need to fully assess diagnostic coverage as part of the pilot study. Furthermore, self-diagnostics were also identified as a potential option to replace the drift analyses conducted as part of current STI extension procedures. In FY2022, the project was reconstituted with the industry partner, and information and data were made available by the industry partner to the research team for review. The shared information included failure event descriptions and data for a digital I&C system since its implementation, as well as recent STI extension interval reports developed by the utility partner on that digital I&C system. This report presents an evaluation of this information and data and describes an application of the proposed methodology cited above. The methodology seeks to take advantage of the self-diagnostics and OLM capabilities to reduce risk or reduce the level of qualitative monitoring assessment needed to perform a risk-informed STI extension using existing NRC approved guidance or both. Addressing these issues of STI extension by crediting self-diagnostics is likely to result in benefits for current and future nuclear power plant (NPP) operations, including lowering the barriers to adoption of digital I&C systems and increasing cost savings by deferring or eliminating unneeded preventive maintenance (tasks or checks or activities). Specifically, self-diagnostic and OLM capabilities of newer digital equipment being installed in non-safety and safety applications are designed to detect failures, provide early warning of potential failures, and notify plant operators to take appropriate action to reduce out of service (OOS) time thus protecting safety margins. Moreover, the equipment is expected to provide information that time-related operational degradation is identified early to ensure timely and planned corrective actions instead of a reactive and unplanned approach ahead of an extended-surveillance interval.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS2000

The Mars Project: Avoiding Decompression Sickness on a Distant Planet

A cost-effective approach for Mars exploration is to use available resources, such as water and atmospheric gases. Nitrogen (N2) and argon (Ar) are available and could form the inert gas component of a habitat atmosphere at 8.0, 9.0, or 10.0 pounds per square inch (psia). The habitat and space suit are designed as an integrated system: a comfortable living environment about 85% of the time and a safe working environment about 15% of the time. A goal is to provide a system that permits unrestricted exploration of Mars, but the risk of decompression sickness (DCS) during the extravehicular activity in a 3.75-psia suit, after exposure to any of the three habitat conditions, may limit unrestricted exploration. I evaluate here the risk of DCS since a significant proportion of a trinary breathing gas in the habitat might contain Ar. I draw on past experience and published information to extrapolate into untested, multivariable conditions to evaluate risk. A rigorous assessment of risk as a probability of DCS for each habitat condition is not yet possible. Based on many assumptions about Ar in hypobaric decompressions, I conclude that the presence of Ar significantly increases the risk of DCS. The risk is significant even with the best habitat option: 2.56 psia oxygen, 3.41 psia N2, and 2.20 psia Ar. Several hours of prebreathing 100% 02, a higher suit pressure, or a combination of other important variables such as limited exposure time on the surface or exercise during prebreathe would be necessary to reduce the risk of DCS to an acceptable level. The acceptable level for DCS risk on Mars has not yet been determined. Mars is a great distance from Earth and therefore from primary medical care. The acceptable risk would necessarily be defined by the capability to treat DCS in the Rover vehicle, in the habitat, or both.

Conkin, Johnny↗
NASA NTRS2007

Sensing Super-Position: Human Sensing Beyond the Visual Spectrum

The coming decade of fast, cheap and miniaturized electronics and sensory devices opens new pathways for the development of sophisticated equipment to overcome limitations of the human senses. This paper addresses the technical feasibility of augmenting human vision through Sensing Super-position by mixing natural Human sensing. The current implementation of the device translates visual and other passive or active sensory instruments into sounds, which become relevant when the visual resolution is insufficient for very difficult and particular sensing tasks. A successful Sensing Super-position meets many human and pilot vehicle system requirements. The system can be further developed into cheap, portable, and low power taking into account the limited capabilities of the human user as well as the typical characteristics of his dynamic environment. The system operates in real time, giving the desired information for the particular augmented sensing tasks. The Sensing Super-position device increases the image resolution perception and is obtained via an auditory representation as well as the visual representation. Auditory mapping is performed to distribute an image in time. The three-dimensional spatial brightness and multi-spectral maps of a sensed image are processed using real-time image processing techniques (e.g. histogram normalization) and transformed into a two-dimensional map of an audio signal as a function of frequency and time. This paper details the approach of developing Sensing Super-position systems as a way to augment the human vision system by exploiting the capabilities of Lie human hearing system as an additional neural input. The human hearing system is capable of learning to process and interpret extremely complicated and rapidly changing auditory patterns. The known capabilities of the human hearing system to learn and understand complicated auditory patterns provided the basic motivation for developing an image-to-sound mapping system. The human brain is superior to most existing computer systems in rapidly extracting relevant information from blurred, noisy, and redundant images. From a theoretical viewpoint, this means that the available bandwidth is not exploited in an optimal way. While image-processing techniques can manipulate, condense and focus the information (e.g., Fourier Transforms), keeping the mapping as direct and simple as possible might also reduce the risk of accidentally filtering out important clues. After all, especially a perfect non-redundant sound representation is prone to loss of relevant information in the non-perfect human hearing system. Also, a complicated non-redundant image-to-sound mapping may well be far more difficult to learn and comprehend than a straightforward mapping, while the mapping system would increase in complexity and cost. This work will demonstrate some basic information processing for optimal information capture for headmounted systems.

Maluf, David A.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Integration of Data Analytics with Plant System Health Program

This report summarizes the R&D activities of the Plant Health Management (PHM) project during fiscal year 2020 (FY20). This project focuses on the development of methods that integrate component health data and propagate such information at the system level to evaluate system sources of risk. This project development lives in cooperation with the Risk Informed Asset Management (RIAM) project. The RIAM project, in fact, uses the reliability models and data generated by the PHM project to optimize plant operations (e.g., maintenance/replacement schedule, optimal maintenance posture). This year’s activities for the PHM project focused mainly on the development of two classes of models. The first one includes a series of component reliability models which include aging, testing and maintenance. The second class includes a series of system reliability models which focus on the secondary side of exiting U.S. reactors. These models are based on fault tree logic structures such that they can be used by existing plant PRA software. We also started to focus on the management of health data and we tackled this issue in two directions. The first one focuses on the integration of monitor data with simulation models to assess component health. This approach is moving from a classical data based to a model+data based approach with the goal of improving higher component health information. The second direction focuses on linking equipment reliability data (e.g., maintenance/failure reports, component monitoring data) directly to system reliability models using a safety margin based language rather than a probability based language. The main advantage of a safety margin based language is that it can provide to system engineers more tangible information on system/component health and how it propagates to the system level.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS2013

ISECG Global Exploration Roadmap: A Stepwise Approach to Deep Space Exploration

In 2011, ISECG released the Global Exploration Roadmap (GER), advancing the "Global Exploration Strategy: The Framework for Coordination" by articulating the perspectives of participating agencies on exploration goals and objectives, mission scenarios, and coordination of exploration preparatory activities. The GER featured a stepwise development and demonstration of capabilities ultimately required for human exploration of Mars. In 2013 the GER was updated to reflect the ongoing evolution of agency's exploration policies and plans, informed by individual agency and coordinated analysis activities that are relevant to various elements of the GER framework as well as coordinated stakeholder engagement activities. For this release of version 2 of the GER in the mid 2013 timeframe, a modified mission scenario is presented, more firmly reflecting the importance of a stepwise evolution of critical capabilities provided by multiple partners necessary for executing increasingly complex missions to multiple destinations and leading to human exploration of Mars. This paper will describe the updated mission scenario, the changes since the release of version 1, the mission themes incorporated into the scenario, and risk reduction for Mars missions provided by exploration at various destinations.

Martinez, Roland↗
DOE OSTI2025

Downscaled CMIP5 projections of physical fire risk understate historical trends

Reliable projections of wildfire risk are important for multi-sector impacts analysis. Statistically downscaled and bias-corrected Earth system model ensemble products are routinely used to analyze regional physical wildfire risk, but evaluations of historical observed trends and variability are lacking. Here, we evaluate physical fire risk over the western United States using the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) by comparing model outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), statistically downscaled via the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) approach, against the observational target dataset gridMET, a gridded high-resolution surface meteorological product. We analyze multidecadal trends and interannual variability in seasonal average FWI for the historical period and future projections under two emissions scenarios, and we compare MACA-CMIP5 ensemble results with a simple time series model that generates historical and future projections of seasonal FWI based on bootstrapping observed historical trends and variability. Our findings indicate that MACA-CMIP5 accurately captures the magnitude and spatial patterns of seasonally averaged FWI but tends to underestimate historical decadal trends. We show that future increases in fire risk may be underestimated relative to the simple time series model that projects historical variability into the future. We also highlight that model biases in relative humidity contribute significantly to model-data differences. Our results underscore the importance of historical hindcasting exercises for informing broader multi-sector applications.

FWI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Carbon Capture, Transport, And Storage (CTS) Cost Modeling Of The Onshore Gulf Coast

The onshore Gulf of Mexico region presents significant opportunities for CO2 capture, transport, and storage due to its numerous CO2 sources, such as power plants, refineries, and its substantial CO2 storage potential. However, operators face critical decisions in designing an efficient and cost-effective CO2 pipeline network. This study examines the economic implications of two primary strategies: constructing a trunkline with excess initial capacity versus developing dedicated pipelines incrementally as new CO2 sources come online. Building a trunkline first offers the advantage of future-proofing the network, allowing for the accommodation of increased CO2 volumes from various sources over time. However, this approach incurs higher upfront costs and risks underutilizing the transport capacity in the initial stages, potentially resulting in economic inefficiencies. Conversely, constructing dedicated pipelines for each new CO2 source as it becomes operational may avoid the initial overcapacity issue but fails to capitalize on the economies of scale. This could lead to higher overall costs due to the duplication of infrastructure and increased complexity in network management. This research employs a comprehensive cost-benefit analysis, integrating factors such as capital expenditure, operational costs, projected CO2 volumes, and potential economies of scale. Through this analysis, we aim to provide operators with insights into the most economically viable strategy for CO2 pipeline network design in the region. The findings underscore the importance of strategic planning and highlight the trade-offs between immediate capacity utilization and long-term cost savings, ultimately guiding stakeholders towards informed decision-making in the development of CO2 transport infrastructure. Presented at the 41st USAEE/IAEE North American Conference, 3-6 November 2024, Baton Rouge, LA, United States.

Shih, Chung Yan↗
NASA NTRS2003

Optical Dust Characterization in Manned Mars Analogue Research Stations

Martian dust has been identified as a potentially serious hazard to any manned Mars landing mission. NASA and other organizations realize this risk and continue to support Martian dust research through the Matador project led by researchers at the University of Arizona. The Mars Society can contribute to this work by beginning a regimen of monitoring and measuring dust properties at its Mars analogue research stations. These research facilities offer the unique opportunity to study the transport and distribution of dust particles within a crewed habitat supporting active geologic exploration. Information regarding the amount, location and size of dust particles that may accumulate in a Mars habitat will be required to design a real Mars habitat and habitat equipment. Beginning such an effort does not require a large outlay of equipment and can be accomplished using crewmembers experienced with station operations. Various optical techniques, such as dark-field illumination, coupled with image processing algorithms enable the collection of dust grain relative size and frequency information. Such approaches can be applied in several different zones within the research stations to evaluate the various dust reduction and isolation procedures implemented during a particular crew rotation. As the stations simulation fidelity increases, the applicability of such data to a functional Mars lander will increase. This presentation describes the optical equipment and procedures for measuring dust properties in Mars analogue research stations that can be implemented during the next field season.

Bos, B. J.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Development and Application of a Risk Analysis Toolkit for Plant Resources Optimization

This report summarizes the R&D activities of the Risk Informed Asset Management (RIAM) project during fiscal year 2020 (FY20). This project focuses on the development of methods designed to optimize plant operations (e.g., maintenance/replacement schedule, optimal maintenance posture) provided system/component health/cost data. This project development lives in cooperation with the Plant Health Management (PHM) project which focuses on the development of methods that integrate component health data and propagate such information at the system level to evaluate most relevant sources of risk. This year’s activities for the RIAM project focused on the continuation of schedule optimization algorithms developed in FY19. While in FY19 we focused on both deterministic and stochastic capital budgeting methods, in FY20 we moved forward by implementing two versions of schedule optimization methods. The first one reformulates the capital budgeting problem in a distributionally robust form which allows the user to rely on data directly rather than proposing a distribution from the data itself. The second version reformulates the capital budgeting explicitly using risk measures as variables to maximize/minimize. Lastly, we focused on the development of methods designed to identify the optimal maintenance posture based on the Pareto Frontier analysis. Rather than performing a tradeoff analysis (i.e., identify the absolute best posture), the Pareto Frontier analysis performs a trade space exploration approach (i.e., identify value and costs of several postures and have the analyst perform the task of imposing desired value and cost constraints). This is performed by identifying maintenance postures that maximize value (e.g., system availability) and minimize operational costs, i.e., the Pareto frontier in a value-cost trade space.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Flexible Siting Criteria and Staff Minimization for Micro-Reactors

The economic potential of micro-reactors is vast and underestimated. Commonly-emphasized applications include niche markets such as remote communities, mines and military bases. However, micro-reactors could be used as flexible energy generators also for larger markets, such as mobile and containerized agriculture and manufacturing facilities, district heating, micro-grids for data centers, sea ports, airports and hospitals. The implication is that micro-reactors may have to be deployed also in non-remote locations. Successful implementation of micro-reactors needs a navigable and predictable licensing process, technology-appropriate siting restrictions, risk-informed emergency and safety requirements, and practical operating and maintenance requirements. The primary goal of this project was to develop siting criteria that are tailored to micro-reactors deployable in densely-populated areas, e.g., urban environments. To achieve that goal, we compared the characteristics of the MIT research reactor (MITR) with those of leading micro-reactor concepts (e.g., eVinci, USNC, Aurora), and evaluated whether and how the MITR design basis (e.g., inherent safety features, engineered safety systems, source term, emergency planning and emergency operating procedures) and associated regulations may be applicable to these new micro-reactors as well. What makes MITR a unique analogue in this context is its small power rating (6 MWt) and physical size, mode of operations (24/7 with a somewhat more commercial flavor than typical university reactors), and especially its urban location. Of course significant differences exist, such as mission (power production vs. research) and the reactor design itself. Leveraging the MITR experience, this project was able to generate criteria that will allow micro-reactors to realize their full economic potential as flexible heat and electricity generators for a diverse portfolio of applications in non-remote locations. As such, the outcome of this project might encourage investment in and use of micro-reactors. A second goal of the project was to conceptualize a model of operations for micro-reactors that would minimize the staffing requirements, and thus reduce the cost of electricity and heat generated by these systems. Here too our approach was to systematically review the MITR experience and requirements, as well as survey the innovations in autonomous control technologies and monitoring (e.g., advanced sensors, drones, robotics, AI) that would permit a dramatic reduction in staffing at future micro-reactor installations. The scope of work was expanded after the start date to include also an evaluation of micro-reactor security, using the so-called consequence-based analysis, and the development of a methodology to perform dynamic risk assessment for micro-reactors, using system theory and modeling and simulation.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Tailoring Microbial Fitness Through Computational Steering and CRISPRi-Driven Robustness Regulation

The widespread application of genetically modified microorganisms (GMMs) across diverse sectors underscores the pressing need for robust strategies to mitigate the risks associated with their potential uncontrolled escape. This study merges computational modeling with CRISPR interference (CRISPRi) to refine GMM metabolic robustness. Utilizing ensemble modeling, we achieved high-throughput in silico screening for enzymatic targets susceptible to expression alterations. Translating these insights, we developed functional CRISPRi, boosting fitness control via multiplexed gene knockdown. Our method, enhanced by an insulator-improved gRNA structure and an off-switch circuit controlling a compact Cas12m, resulted in rationally engineered strains with escape frequencies below National Institutes of Health standards. The effectiveness of this approach was confirmed under various conditions, showcasing its ability for secure GMM management. This research underscores the resilience of microbial metabolism, strategically modifying key nodes to halt growth without provoking significant resistance, thereby enabling more reliable and precise GMM control. A record of this paper's transparent peer review process is included in the supplemental information.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗