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Functional models are used to identify possible faults and system-level fault consequences. A risk factor is calculated to evaluate mitigation. The risk factor from different radiation-induced faults is compared with system telemetry from on-orbit data.
Weather, specifically winds, are the most variable and least predictable of the weather-related elements that affect wildfire behavior.1 This leads to aviation operations which must deal with increased risks due to dynamic weather factors. Remotely piloted aircraft provide the opportunity to remove human loss of life from these risk consequences and mitigate the overall risks for air operations for fire suppression and dropping of retardant. UAS also allows the opportunity to continue fire suppression with nighttime operations. However, with the use of new technologies in aviation operations comes additional risk factors and the need for remote sensing capabilities to identify and permit navigation around extreme weather conditions, with turbulence being the most unforeseeable. This paper presents advanced concepts for weather hazard perception capabilities for remote pilot operators to include data and display techniques intended for dynamic environments and low altitude operations. This work can support the potential of weather sensing capabilities to create hazard maps to track high-risk weather patterns in mountainous regions. Advanced sensing may provide opportunity to locate extreme turbulence hazards for uninhabited aerial systems (UAS) and decrease the likelihood of flying into unknown weather conditions to enable safe operations to assist in wildfire air support.
The cyber risk landscape for BESS and IBR can be broken up by threats, vulnerabilities, and consequences for these systems. This presentation walks through the cyber risk landscape for BESS through the lens of consequence-informed awareness and mitigation for each risk factor. Threats with varying capabilities have been demonstrated in real-world events. Though threat actors can rarely be directly influenced by organizations, exposure of systems to adversaries can be limited (a known issue with IBR systems) to reduce likelihood of adversaries accessing systems with disruptive consequences. Common trends in disclosed IBR vulnerabilities include weak password generation or managements for various devices or services and web portal vulnerabilities that provide unauthorized access to data or capabilities or elevated user privileges. Understanding these common vulnerabilities and considering the consequences if these types of vulnerabilities were to occur can help mitigate risk. Consequences range from loss-of-view events that have no reliability impact to asset damage or grid stability impacts. Five case studies are briefly shared to highlight trends in real-world events affecting IBR.
Both pluvial and fluvial flooding events pose direct challenges on urban infrastructure and communities across the United States. Heavy rainfall events oversaturate the ground, overflow waterbodies, and overwhelm stormwater infrastructure. Vulnerable areas receive heavy damage from flooding events due to physical factors like increased impervious surfaces, poor stormwater systems, and limited greenspaces. These vulnerable neighborhoods are comprised of aging populations, minority communities, and lower income levels. Lack of data in these communities have made it difficult to implement policymaking and flood mitigation strategies. Using the Urban Flood Risk Mitigation model (InVEST) and the PlanetScope satellite constellation, the team visualized historical flooding and tree canopy coverage as a measure of flood susceptibility. The team also used the Arc-Malstrom model to provide further insight into where flooding accumulates via surface elevation depressions in the study area. To validate these models, the team explored the spatial variation of rainfall events using NASA’s Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM IMERG). The resulting maps highlight areas surrounding the cities of Youngstown and Warren as being the most flood susceptible and socially vulnerable, while the city centers contain the lowest tree canopy coverage. The DEVELOP team collaborated with the Environmental Collaborative of Ohio (ECO) to create products for end users within the City of Warren’s Water Pollution Control Department, the Eastgate Regional Council of Governments and the Healthy Community Partnership of Mahoning Valley. These products help identify target areas for preventative flood mitigation measures as well as areas ideal for green infrastructure intervention.
Two approaches were compared to the Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) Avionics Integration Laboratory (CAIL) approach: the Flat-Sat and Shuttle Avionics Integration Laboratory (SAIL). The Flat-Sat and CAIL/SAIL approaches are two different tools designed to mitigate different risks. Flat-Sat approach is designed to develop a mission concept into a flight avionics system and associated ground controller. The SAIL approach is designed to aid in the flight readiness verification of the flight avionics system. The approaches are complimentary in addressing both the system development risks and mission verification risks. The following NESC team findings were identified: The CAIL assumption is that the flight subsystems will be matured for the system level verification; The Flat-Sat and SAIL approaches are two different tools designed to mitigate different risks. The following NESC team recommendation was provided: Define, document, and manage a detailed interface between the design and development (EDL and other integration labs) to the verification laboratory (CAIL).
This paper discusss the systems approach taken by NASA and the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in the commercialization of land-mobile satellite services (LMSS) in the United States. As the lead center for NASA's Mobile Satellite Program, JPL was involved in identifying and addressing many of the key barriers to commercialization of mobile satellite communications, including technical, economic, regulatory and institutional risks, or uncertainties. The systems engineering approach described here was used to mitigate these risks. The result was the development and implementation of the JPL Mobile Satellite Experiment Project. This Project included not only technology development, but also studies to support NASA in the definition of the regulatory, market, and investment environments within which LMSS would evolve and eventually operate, as well as initiatives to mitigate their associated commercialization risks. The end result of these government-led endeavors was the acceleration of the introduction of commercial mobile satellite services, both nationally and internationally.
The NASA Human Research Program’s (HRP) Space Radiation Element (SRE) funds research to characterize and mitigate adverse health outcomes from exposure to space radiation to enable deep space exploration and sustained human presence in space. Damage to the cardiovascular system has been observed after exposure to clinically relevant doses of ionizing radiation. However, an association between lower radiation doses and cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains controversial, and questions pertaining to dose thresholds, radiation quality and dose-rate effects, and gaps in characterizing the mechanisms and major pathways of CVD remain. To solicit new ideas for characterizing and mitigating this risk, the SRE is organizing a series of miniature technical interchange meeting (Tiny-TIM) that provide a venue for HRP-funded investigators and thought leaders to present ongoing work and engage in open discussion on relevant topics. The initial Tiny-TIM: Upping the Ante on Characterizing and Mitigating Cardiovascular Disease Risk from Space Radiation Exposure, held at the NASA HRP Investigators’ Workshop (IWS) earlier this year, consisted of two 90-minute sessions; the first focused on current knowledge of CVD risk from space radiation exposure, and the second focused on innovative ideas, and newer approaches and techniques to accelerate research. The second session was followed by an open, spirited discussion amongst peers on the current issues impeding the characterization of CVD risk. SRE leadership facilitated the discussion using a set of pressing questions and gaps in knowledge that need to be addressed by the scientific community. This poster presents the outcomes of the Tiny-TIM, along with proposed future workshops and the SRE’s other initiatives.
The foundation of NASA's Electrical, Electronic and Electromechanical (EEE) parts program is standardization. Standardization helps to reduce the number of unknown variables present as a project or program progresses; unknown variables equate to unknown risk. NASA spacecraft are usually 'one-offs' or at least part of a very short run, and every new part that is used represents a risk that has to be understood and mitigated as necessary. This equates directly to time and cost. Standardization of component parts is used to provide a foundation of known, dependable, qualified parts upon which a safe, reliable system can be built. In addition, the evaluation and selection of parts for the standard parts list unifies the activity under one group of experts rather than having engineers on each project overlapping and duplicating efforts. Thus, the project support engineers are able to concentrate on understanding and mitigating the risks for the non standard parts required to meet specific requirements of their project. Rapid technology change is producing conditions that make any form of parts-based standardization increasingly difficult, particularly the use of Commercial Off The Shelf (COTS) parts and assemblies. There are many complications to COTS-based standardization. COTS parts change rapidly and unpredictably, often have different characteristics fiom manufacturer to manufacturer, frequently are only available through distribution, have no universal specification and have variable and unpredictable radiation characteristics. This presentation will discuss some potential approaches to COTS parts standardization. Further into the future, in three to five years perhaps, the use of COTS boards and boxes will be extensive and standardization at these levels of assembly will be necessary. In five to ten years, most major spacecraft functions will probably be performed by COTS boards. How will this be achieved? What role will the parts engineer play, if any? This presentation will borrow from the lessons of the past to suggest some scenarios for the future.
This paper discusses the Asteroid Redirect Crewed Mission (ARCM) space suit and Extravehicular Activity (EVA) architecture trade study and the current state of the work to mature the requirements and products to the mission concept review level. The mission requirements and the resulting concept of operations will be discussed. A historical context will be presented as to present the similarities and differences from previous NASA missions. That will set the stage for the trade study where all options for both pressure garment and life support were considered. The rationale for the architecture decisions will then be presented. Since the trade study did identity risks, the subsequent tests and analyses that mitigated the risks will be discussed. Lastly, the current state of the effort will be provided.
The US National Airspace System (NAS) is making its transition to the NextGen system and assuring safety is one of the top priorities in NextGen. At present, safety is managed reactively (correct after occurrence of an unsafe event). While this strategy works for current operations, it may soon become ineffective for future airspace designs and high density operations. There is a need for proactive management of safety risks by identifying hidden and "unknown" risks and evaluating the impacts on future operations. To this end, NASA Ames has developed data mining algorithms that finds anomalies and precursors (high-risk states) to safety issues in the NAS. In this paper, we describe a recently developed algorithm called ADOPT that analyzes large volumes of data and automatically identifies precursors from real world data. Precursors help in detecting safety risks early so that the operator can mitigate the risk in time. In addition, precursors also help identify causal factors and help predict the safety incident. The ADOPT algorithm scales well to large data sets and to multidimensional time series, reduce analyst time significantly, quantify multiple safety risks giving a holistic view of safety among other benefits. This paper details the algorithm and includes several case studies to demonstrate its application to discover the "known" and "unknown" safety precursors in aviation operation.
BACKGROUND: Current medical operations in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) allow for real-time audio-video communication with a flight surgeon at mission control, resupply, and medical evacuation to earth on the order of hours. As mission profiles change from LEO to the Moon, Mars, and beyond, medical risk as a contribution to overall mission risk is anticipated to rise substantially. Concurrently, due to the distance, the medical systems on board vehicles proposed for these mission types are expected to have reduced mass and volume allocation. Together, astronaut crews will be at a higher risk of major medical events, be required to perform a broader set of tasks, and have substantially reduced resources and support to do so. Earth Independent Medical Operations (EIMO) aims to identify and fill the gaps present in this progressively changing paradigm. OVERVIEW: Medical supplies, resources, and skills are central to spaceflight medical systems. Vehicles used for non-LEO missions are anticipated to be smaller and thus the medical system will also need to have reduced mass, volume, and power. Medical resources are another form of consumable and may need resupply or pre-deployment to meet crew needs. One particular concern is the degradation of medications which become less efficacious and potentially toxic with time, particularly given environmental conditions such as temperature, humidity, oxygen, and radiation which have not yet been fully studied. Supply and resource management in LEO is dependent on resupply, however the supply chain of transporting equipment does not yet have a clear infrastructure for missions beyond LEO. DISCUSSION: EIMO is intended to systemically identify and fill these gaps with forward-looking solutions. In mission monitoring of resources with technology like RFID, improving medical resource longevity, targeted resupply and careful pre-mission planning will be central to facilitate crew health and performance. One approach to optimizing resources is the Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces (IMPACT) tool, which uses probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) to quantitatively predict medical risk and identify resources and skills that mitigate this risk. This evidence based, quantitative analysis prediction tool and several other approaches to meeting the challenge of supply and resource management are discussed.
The Decision Support Tool helps users address four discrete challenges: (1) complex requirements of relevant codes and standards, (2) technical complexity of solar assets, (3) undefined cyber risk severity, and (4) unclear roles and responsibilities. Content includes an analysis of cyber vulnerability risks, a decision support resource for policymakers to mitigate cyber risks to solar photovoltaic systems, and background resources for informing policy development. A key component of this tool is the Probable Risk Assessment (PRA), based on established, formal variables, models, and consequences, which helps users understand the determined risk and assigned ownership of the physical components. It helps states draw logical lines between vulnerabilities and mitigative solutions, of which some have been further detailed as Cybersecurity Advisory Team for State Solar (CATSS) tools.
The aim of this article is to develop a risk management procedure, which could be applied to the magnet design process, for both superconducting and normal magnets at the Jefferson Laboratory (JLab). This procedure allowed us to identify the key risks at each of the critical phases of design and propose procedures, tests, and checks to mitigate each risk. In this article, we present a qualitative and quantitative risk management procedure commonly referred to a “failure modes and effects analysis.” As part of this procedure, we calculated a risk priority number (RPN) for each activity of the process, identified the most critical activities and proposed mitigation activities, which in turn resulted in a revised RPN. Additionally, another benefit of this procedure was the identification of appropriate “control and hold” points within the design process, which allowed one to review and approve a particular outcome before proceeding to the next sequential activity.
With the establishment of the Constellation Program, NASA has initiated efforts designed similar to the Apollo Program to return to the moon and subsequently travel to Mars. Early lunar sorties will take 4 crewmembers to the moon for 4 to 7 days. Later missions will increase in duration up to 6 months as a lunar habitat is constructed. These missions and vehicle designs are the forerunners of further missions destined for human exploration of Mars. Throughout the planning and design process, lessons learned from the International Space Station (ISS) and past programs will be implemented toward future exploration goals. The standards and requirements for these missions will vary depending on life support systems, mission duration, crew activities, and payloads. From a microbiological perspective, preventative measures will remain the primary techniques to mitigate microbial risk. Thus, most of the effort will focus on stringent preflight monitoring requirements and engineering controls designed into the vehicle, such as HEPA air filters. Due to volume constraints in the CEV, in-flight monitoring will be limited for short-duration missions to the measurement of biocide concentration for water potability. Once long-duration habitation begins on the lunar surface, a more extensive environmental monitoring plan will be initiated. However, limited in-flight volume constraints and the inability to return samples to Earth will increase the need for crew capabilities in determining the nature of contamination problems and method of remediation. In addition, limited shelf life of current monitoring hardware consumables and limited capabilities to dispose of biohazardous trash will drive flight hardware toward non-culture based methodologies, such as hardware that rapidly distinguishes biotic versus abiotic surface contamination. As missions progress to Mars, environmental systems will depend heavily on regeneration of air and water and biological waste remediation and regeneration systems, increasing the need for environmental monitoring. Almost complete crew autonomy will be needed for assessment and remediation of contamination problems. Cabin capacity will be limited; thus, current methods of microbial monitoring will be inadequate. Future methodology must limit consumables, and these consumables must have a shelf life of over three years. In summary, missions to the moon and Mars will require a practical design that prudently uses available resources to mitigate microbial risk to the crew.
Using Systems Engineering principles and the NASA Glenn Safety procedures and protocols, a rigorous method was developed to ensure safe testing and operation of a small, commercial off the shelf turbofan engine at the Aero-Acoustic Propulsion Laboratory (AAPL). The DGEN380 is a small, ~500-lbf thrust class, high-bypass, geared- turbofan engine with a separate flow nozzle. It is a modular, compact, lightweight turbofan with Full-Authority Digital Engine Control. It’s general characteristics make it an ideal candidate for utilization as a testbed for engine aero-acoustic technology maturation in a relevant performance environment. The DGEN380 is the core component of the DGEN Aero-propulsion Research Turbofan (DART) mobile test rig. The full presentation will describe the risk assessment and mitigation process applied to the DART by the project team. The identification and analysis of failure modes led to the development of risk mitigation plans, which include administrative, engineering, and physical controls for the safe operation of the DART test rig at the AAPL facility.
Hydrogen (H 2 ), as a carbon-free fuel, is considered as one of the most promising solutions to reduce the carbon footprint of hard-to-decarbonize energy and transportation sectors. As such, hydrogen-fueled internal combustion engines (H 2 ICEs) have recently been receiving increasing attention, particularly in applications such as on-road/off-road heavy-duty transport and combined heat and power. The direct injection (DI) of gaseous hydrogen into the combustion chamber offers great potential for achieving high power density and high engine efficiency, while mitigating the risk of backfire and reducing pre-ignition. However, the numerical simulation of H 2 DI system remains a formidable challenge associated with the high computational cost of reproducing compressible supersonic flow and shocks in narrow injector passages and in near-nozzle regions. In general, there is a lack of well-established and validated practices for the modeling of high-pressure H 2 DI in large-bore engines. Here, to this end, this study focuses on computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling of the mixture formation process in a heavy-duty optical engine employing a medium-pressure H 2 DI system. Both large eddy simulations (LES) and Reynolds Averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) simulations are performed and evaluated against optical data. Gaseous hydrogen is injected into the combustion chamber via a centrally located outward opening hollow-cone injector at a pressure of 40 bar. Simulations are carried out for two injection timings, namely, −120 and −60 °CA. The numerical predictions for H 2 distribution in different horizontal and vertical planes during the compression stroke are systematically compared against optical data obtained through planar laser-induced fluorescence (PLIF) measurements. Overall, the LES approach using the Dynamic Structure model is found to have good predictive capabilities for the early jet penetration in terms of length and shape, as well as the later H 2 distributions. However, the unsteady RANS approach with the renormalization group $k - ϵ$ model, which is widely used by industry to model heavy-duty ICEs, significantly underpredicts the H 2 mixing, even at similar mesh resolution to that used in LES. These results indicate that there is a need for the improvement of mixing submodels within the RANS approach when applied to H 2 DI simulations.
The successful operation of unmanned air vehicles requires software with a high degree of autonomy. Only if high level functions can be carried out without human control and intervention, complex missions in a changing and potentially unknown environment can be carried out successfully. Autonomy software is highly mission and safety critical: failures, caused by flaws in the software cannot only jeopardize the mission, but could also endanger human life (e.g., a crash of an UAV in a densely populated area). Due to its large size, high complexity, and use of specialized algorithms (planner, constraint-solver, etc.), autonomy software poses specific challenges for its verification, validation, and certification. -- - we have carried out a survey among researchers aid scientists at NASA to study these issues. In this paper, we will present major results of this study, discussing the broad spectrum. of notions and characteristics of autonomy software and its challenges for design and development. A main focus of this survey was to evaluate verification and validation (V&V) issues and challenges, compared to the development of "traditional" safety-critical software. We will discuss important issues in V&V of autonomous software and advanced V&V tools which can help to mitigate software risks. Results of this survey will help to identify and understand safety concerns in autonomy software and will lead to improved strategies for mitigation of these risks.
Recognizing the scale of this industry challenge, the United States (U.S.) Department of Energy (DOE) Grid Deployment Office (GDO) and Cybersecurity Energy Security & Emergency Response office have launched a multi-year BESS supply chain security initiative to identify consequence-driven approaches to addressing BESS supply chain security and provide resources to support prioritization of supply chain security efforts associated with the procurement of BESS equipment and services. This guide is one element of the supporting resources to be provided and sets forth a framework and guidance for procurement bidding, selection, risk analysis, and agreements stakeholders can implement to mitigate cybersecurity risks across the entirety of battery system component ecosystem, including the interconnected software and hardware required for control and monitoring BESSs.