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At least 829 records · Page 46

Evaluation of liquid cloud albedo susceptibility in E3SM using coupled eastern North Atlantic surface and satellite retrievals

The impact of aerosol number concentration on cloud albedo is a persistent source of spread in global climate predictions due to multi-scale, interactive atmospheric processes that remain difficult to quantify. We use 5 years of geostationary satellite and surface retrievals at the US Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) eastern North Atlantic (ENA) site in the Azores to evaluate the representation of liquid cloud albedo susceptibility for overcast cloud scenes in the DOE Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SMv1) and provide possible reasons for model–observation discrepancies. The overall distribution of surface 0.2 % CCN concentration values is reasonably simulated, but simulated liquid water path (LWP) is lower than observed and layer mean droplet concentration (N d ) comparisons are highly variable depending on the N d retrieval technique. E3SMv1's cloud albedo is greater than observed for given LWP and N d values due to a lower cloud effective radius than observed. However, the simulated albedo response to N d is suppressed due to a correlation between the solar zenith angle (SZA) and N d created by the seasonal cycle that is not observed. Controlling for this effect by examining the cloud optical depth (COD) shows that E3SMv1's COD response to CCN concentration is greater than observed. For surface-based retrievals, this is only true after controlling for cloud adiabaticity because E3SMv1's adiabaticities are much lower than observed. Assuming a constant adiabaticity in surface retrievals as done in top-of-atmosphere (TOA) retrievals narrows the retrieved ln N d distribution, which increases the cloud albedo sensitivity to ln N d to match the TOA sensitivity. The greater sensitivity of COD to CCN is caused by a greater Twomey effect in which the sensitivity of N d to CCN is greater than observed for TOA-retrieved N d , and once model–observation cloud adiabaticity differences are removed, this is also true for surface-retrieved N d . The LWP response to N d in E3SMv1 is overall negative as observed. Despite reproducing the observed LWP–N d relationship, observed clouds become much more adiabatic as N d increases, while E3SMv1 clouds do not, associated with more heavily precipitating clouds that are partially but not completely caused by deeper clouds and weaker inversions in E3SMv1. These cloud property differences indicate that the negative LWP–N d relationship is likely not caused by the same mechanisms in E3SMv1 and observations. The negative simulated LWP response also fails to mute the excessively strong Twomey effect, highlighting potentially important confounding factor effects that likely render the LWP–N d relationship non-causal. N d retrieval scales and assumptions, particularly related to cloud adiabaticity, contribute to substantial spreads in the model–observation comparisons, though enough consistency exists to suggest that aerosol activation, drizzle, and entrainment processes are critical areas to focus E3SMv1 development for improving the fidelity of aerosol–cloud interactions in E3SM.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Co‐Evolution of Specific Stiffness and Permeability of Rock Fractures Offset in Shear

Abstract Fractures and faults represent planes of weakness and compliance in rock masses that serve as focal points for both microearthquakes and fluid transport, with seismicity and permeability evolution closely linked. Contact stiffness is highly stress‐sensitive and directly influences permeability. We explore the co‐evolution of specific stiffness and permeability of rough fractures under normal stress and shear offset using numerical simulations. Individual rough fractures are represented by variable amplitude (Root mean square) and wavelength ( λ ) using a granular mechanics model. Contacting rough surfaces are mated, offset in shear, and then compacted in displacement mode. The compacting fractures generate stress‐dependent changes in contact porosity, which govern both permeability and stiffness evolution. We establish a universal dimensionless relationship linking specific stiffness and permeability that inherently incorporates the effects of surface roughness, shear offset, and microcracking. The observed cracking effect—where local stress redistribution and pressure‐driven microcrack propagation dynamically alter the aperture field—introduces a nonlinear permeability response at high stress. Increased roughness amplitude and larger shear offsets reduce stiffness while dampening permeability sensitivity to stress, demonstrating a strong interplay between surface texture and hydro‐mechanical behavior. While the model captures this behavior effectively, deviations emerge at very low porosities due to extreme aperture sensitivity in this limit.

He, Xinxin [Energy and Mineral Engineering Pennsyl↗

Dynamical Sensitivity in Response to a Wide Range of Abrupt CO 2 Forcings

An improved understanding of dynamical variability is important for projecting future changes in extratropical weather and the interaction between the extratropical troposphere and the tropics, stratosphere, cryosphere and ocean. Despite their simplicity, the abrupt 2x- and 4xCO 2 forcing simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Phase 6 DECK experiments enable a mechanistic look into the forcing and feedback response characteristics of models that can be unambiguously attributed to an increase in carbon dioxide concentrations. Thus, while typically used to evaluate the climate sensitivity in models, with a primary focus on global surface temperature change, here we focus on several measures of extratropical variability, including projected changes in the storm tracks and in stratospheric polar vortex variability. Results are primarily based on simulations produced using low- and high-top versions of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies Model (ModelE) but results are also presented from the larger CMIP6 multi-model ensemble. In addition to the 2x- and 4xCO 2 simulations, we also explore the linearity of the response of extratropical dynamical variability in ModelE to varying levels of CO 2 spanning the range 1/8-8xCO 2 . In particular, we show that the expansion of the jet streams varies nonlinearly with increasing CO 2 , especially in the Northern Hemisphere, and that this can be interpreted in terms of variations in ocean heat transport. The impact of composition feedbacks on changes in variability is also discussed.

dynamical variability↗

Machine learning enables national assessment of wind plant controls with implications for land use

Summary As deployment of wind energy continues to expand, computationally efficient tools for predicting wind plant performance over a wide range of layout designs, technology innovations, and spatial locations are increasingly important for policy and investment decisions. We demonstrate two approaches to training a surrogate model to predict annual energy production (AEP) of parameterized wind plant layouts: one using a Gaussian process (GP) and the other using a fully convolutional neural network (FCNN). We leverage the powerful FCNN architecture by encoding wind plant design parameters and output response surface as an image. The FCNN produces more accurate results than the GP with mean absolute errors equivalent to 1% and 1.9% of plant rated power, respectively, although the GP performs well under limited training data and provides useful uncertainty information. We also evaluate a surrogate model for wake steering, enabling a nationwide assessment of the impact of plant control strategies and plant layout decisions. Across two million locations, we find that wake steering strategies boost AEP with relative gains upwards of 3%. Gains are most pronounced at sites without a dominant wind direction and where layout optimization is less fruitful. Additionally, we perform a nationwide sensitivity analysis showing that wake steering can mitigate wake losses from higher density plant layouts. Our results suggest that regions which have not been previously viable for wind deployment due to moderate wind resources are especially well enhanced by wake steering strategies that could help overcome land constraints and inflexible layout options, potentially identifying new deployment opportunities.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Transition Induced by Fence Geometrics on Shuttle Orbiter at Mach 10

Fence-induced transition data simulating a raised gap filler have been acquired on the wing lower surface of a Shuttle Orbiter model in the Langley 31-Inch Mach 10 Tunnel to compare with the Shuttle Boundary Layer Transition Flight and HYTHIRM Experiments, and to provide additional correlation data for the Boundary Layer Transition Tool. In a qualitative assessment, the data exhibit the expected response to all parameter variations; however, it is unclear whether fully effective tripping at the fence was ever realized at any test condition with the present model hardware. A preliminary, qualitative comparison of the ground-based transition measurements with those obtained from the STS-128 HYTHIRM imagery at Mach 15 reveal similar transition-wake response characteristics in terms of the spreading and the path along the vehicle surface.

Everhart, Joel L.↗

Evolutionary sequences of very hot, low-mass, accreting white dwarfs with application to symbiotic variables and ultrasoft/supersoft low-luminosity x-ray sources

We present the first detailed model results of quasi-static evolutionary sequences of very hot low-mass white dwarfs accreting hydrogen-rich material at rates between 1 x 10(exp -7) and 1 x 10(exp -9) solar mass/yr. Most of the sequences were generated from starting models whose core thermal structures were not thermally relaxed in the thermal pulse cycle-averaged sense of an asymptotic giant branch stellar core. Hence, the evolution at constant accretion rate was not invariably characterized by series of identical shell flashes. Sequences exhibiting stable steady state nuclear burning at the accretion supply rate as well as sequences exhibiting recurrent thermonuclear shell flashes are presented and discussed. In some cases, the white dwarf accretors remain small (less than 10(exp 11) cm) and very hot even during the shell flash episode. They then experience continued but reduced hydrogen shell burning during the longer quiescent intervals while their surface temperatures increase both because of compressional heating and envelope structure readjustment in response to accretion over thousands of years. Both accretion and continued hydrogen burning power these models with luminosities of a few times 10(exp 37) ergs/s. We suggest that the physical properties of these model sequences are of considerable relevance to the observed outburst and quiescent behavior of those symbiotic variables and symbiotic novae containing low-mass white dwarfs. We also suggest that our models are relevant to the observational characteristics of the growing class of low-luminosity, supersoft/ultrasoft X-ray sources in globular clusters, and the Magellanic Clouds.

Sion, Edward M.↗

Wind Conditions for Solar Energy Facility Design Based on Field Measurements at Nevada Solar One

This study characterises near-surface wind conditions at the Nevada Solar One (NSO) concentrated solar power plant using two years of measurements from a 15-m mast located 30 m west of the solar arrays. The surrounding terrain is fairly flat within 3 km, but nearby solar photovoltaic (PV) and concentrated solar power (CSP) installations introduce strong directional wind inhomogeneity, which motivates a sector-based analysis that distinguishes undisturbed inflow from waked flow. The analysis uses data from three sonic anemometers to assess whether turbulence in the surface layer can be represented as Gaussian and whether standard surface-layer scaling remains valid below 10 m height. The roughness length and displacement height are estimated for twelve directional sectors under near-neutral wind conditions, and all three velocity components show departures from Gaussian behaviour. Spectral analysis indicates that the turbulence contains low-frequency fluctuations with amplitudes higher than those predicted by standard models such as the Kaimal model or the Simiu and Scanlan model. The study introduces a new turbulence spectral model based on the eddy-surface-layer framework to better represent near-surface wind turbulence. The analysis further quantifies the influence of the surrounding power plants on mean wind profiles, one-point spectra, and vertical coherence for all velocity components. The solar collector arrays located 30 m east of the mast significantly modify the turbulence structure, whereas PV installations situated a few hundred metres away have only a limited influence on the turbulence measured at the mast. These findings highlight the limitations of conventional turbulence models for near-surface wind over solar infrastructure and provide improved parameterisations to support the structural design. The implications for the structural response of parabolic troughs and PV modules to such turbulence remain uncertain and require further investigation.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Identification of dynamic coefficients of annular turbulent seals

An identification procedure to determine dynamic coefficients of annular turbulent seals in turbopumps is presented. Measurements were carried out at a built test rig with two symmetrical arranged seals. A rigid rotating shaft is surrounded by an elastically supported housing, which is excited by impact forces. The relative radial motion between the rotating parts and the housing, respectively between the seal surfaces, is measured by displacement pick-ups and from the time signals complex frequency response functions can be calculated. Finally an analytical model, depending on the seal parameters, is fitted to the measured data, to find the dynamic coefficients.

Nordmann, R.↗

Some new results concerning the dynamic behavior of annular turbulent seals

The dynamic characteristics of annular turbulent seals applied in high pressure turbopumps can be described by stiffness, damping, and inertia coefficients. An improved procedure is presented for determining these parameters by using measurements made with newly developed test equipment. The dynamic system seal, consisting of the fluid between the cylindrical surfaces of the rotating shaft and the housing, is excited by test forces (input), and the relative motion between the surfaces (output) is measured. Transformation of the input and output time signals into the frequency domain leads to frequency response functions. An analytical model, depending on the seal parameters, is fitted to the measured data in order to identify the dynamic coefficients. Some new results are reported that show the dependencies of these coefficients with respect to the axial and radial Reynolds numbers and the geometrical data of the seal.

Massmann, H.↗

Turbine Engine Hot Section Technology 1986

On October 21 and 22, 1986, the Turbine Engine Hot Section Technology (HOST) Project of the NASA Lewis Research Center sponsored a workshop to discuss current research pertinent to turbine engine durability problems. Presentations were made concerning the hot-section environment and the behavior of combustion liners, turbine blades, and turbine vanes. The presentations were divided Into six sessions: Instrumentation, Combustion, Turbine Heat Transfer, Structural Analysis, Fatigue and Fracture, and Surface Protection. The principal objective of each session was to disseminate research results to date. Topics discussed included modeling of thermal and fluid-flow phenomena, structural analysis, fatigue and fracture, surface protective coatings, constitutive behavior of materials, stress-strain response, and life-prediction methods. Researchers from industry, academia, and government presented results of their work sponsored by the HOST Project. This publication contains extended abstracts and visual material presented during the workshop.

Turbine Engine Hot Section Technology (HOST)↗

Analysis of unsteady pressures induced on a body by a rotor

An analysis was conducted on the unsteady pressures measured on a body surface in proximity to a rotor. Unsteady pressures were measured at strategic points on the body in forward flight at various combination of advance ratio, rotor thrust, and tip-path-plane angle. It was found that the local values of unsteady pressure were significantly altered by small changes in rotor thrust and advance ratio; tip-path-plane angle variations had a much smaller effect. Four characteristic pressure signatures representative of (1) blade passage, (2) close wake interactions with the body, (3) wake impingement on the body, and (4) postwake impingement were distinguished. These classifications were supported by correlations with shadowgraphic flow visualization of the rotor wake/body interaction, as well as unsteady potential flow models. This general classification of the surface pressure signatures has permitted a greater physical understanding of the overall air loads and possible mechanisms responsible for the interactional effects between a helicopter rotor and its fuselage.

Bi, Nai-Pei↗

Space transportation vehicle design evaluation using saturated designs

An important objective in the preliminary design and evaluation of space transportation vehicles is to find the best values of design variables that optimize the performance characteristic (e.g. dry weight). For a given configuration, the vehicle performance can be determined by the use of complex sizing and performance evaluation computer programs. These complex computer programs utilize iterative algorithms and they are generally too expensive and/or difficult to use directly in multidisciplinary design optimization. An alternative is to use response surface methodology (RSM) and obtain quadratic polynomial approximations to the functional relationships between performance characteristics and design variables. In RSM, these approximation models are then used to determine optimum design parameter values and for rapid sensitivity studies. Constructing a second-order model requires that 'n' design parameters be studied at least at 3 levels (values) so that the coefficients in the model can be estimated. There, 3(n) factorial experiments (point designs or observations) may be necessary. For small values of 'n' such as two or three, this design works well. However, when a large number of design parameters are under study, the number of design points required for a full-factorial design may become excessive. Fortunately, these quadratic polynomial approximations can be obtained by selecting an efficient design matrix using central composite designs (CCD) from design of experiments theory. Each unique point design from the CCD matrix is then conducted using computerized analysis tools (e.g. POST, CONSIZ, etc.). In the next step, least squares regression analysis is used to calculate the quadratic polynomial coefficients from the data. However, in some multidisciplinary applications involving a large number of design variables and several disciplines, the computerized performance synthesis programs may get too time consuming and expensive to run even with the use of efficient central composite designs. In such cases, it may be preferable to keep the number of design points to an absolute minimum and trade some model accuracy with cost. For this purpose, another class of experimental designs, called saturated D-optimal designs may be utilized for generating a matrix of vehicle designs. A design is called saturated when the number of design points is exactly equal to the number of terms in the model to be fitted. As a result, saturated designs require the absolute minimum number of design points ((n+1)(n+2)/s) to estimate the quadratic polynomial model coefficients. Saturated designs can be generated using the D-optimality criterion. A good saturated design should give rise to least squares estimates with minimum generalized variance.

Unal, Resit↗

The influence of land surface properties on Sahel climate. Part 1: Desertification

This is a general circulation model sensitivity study of the physical mechanisms of the effects of desertification on the Sahel drought. The model vegetation types were changed in the prescribed desertification area, which led to changes in the surface characteristics. The model was integrated for three months (June, July, August) with climatological surface conditions (control) and desertification conditions (anomaly) to examine the summer season response to the changed surface conditions. The control and anomaly experiments consisted of five pairs of integrations with different initial conditions and/or sea surface temperature boundary conditions. In the desertification experiment, the moisture flux convergence and rainfall were reduced in the test area and increased to the immediate south of this area. The simulated anomaly dipole pattern was similar to the observed African drought patterns in which the axis of the maximum rainfall shifts to the south. The circulation changes in the desertification experiment were consistent with those observed during sub-Saharan dry years. The tropical easterly jet was weaker and the African easterly jet was stronger than normal. Further, in agreement with the observations, the easterly wave disturbances were reduced in intensity but not in number. Descending motion dominated the desertification area. The surface energy budget and hydrological cycle were also changed substantially in the anomaly experiment.

Xue, Yongkang↗

Application of Probabilistic Analysis to Aircraft Impact Dynamics

Full-scale aircraft crash simulations performed with nonlinear, transient dynamic, finite element codes can incorporate structural complexities such as: geometrically accurate models; human occupant models; and advanced material models to include nonlinear stressstrain behaviors, laminated composites, and material failure. Validation of these crash simulations is difficult due to a lack of sufficient information to adequately determine the uncertainty in the experimental data and the appropriateness of modeling assumptions. This paper evaluates probabilistic approaches to quantify the uncertainty in the simulated responses. Several criteria are used to determine that a response surface method is the most appropriate probabilistic approach. The work is extended to compare optimization results with and without probabilistic constraints.

Lyle, Karen H.↗

The NASA Marshall Space Flight Center Earth Global Reference Atmospheric Model-2010 Version

Reference or standard atmospheric models have long been used for design and mission planning of various aerospace systems. The NASA Marshall Space Flight Center Global Reference Atmospheric Model was developed in response to the need for a design reference atmosphere that provides complete global geographical variability and complete altitude coverage (surface to orbital altitudes), as well as complete seasonal and monthly variability of the thermodynamic variables and wind components. In addition to providing the geographical, height, and monthly variation of the mean atmospheric state, it includes the ability to simulate spatial and temporal perturbations.

Leslie, F. W.↗

Experimental Calibration of a Numerical Model of Prepreg Tack for Predicting AFP Process Related Defects

Wrinkles, puckers, and fiber bridging are among the major defects encountered in the Automated Fiber Placement (AFP) process, and are all different manifestations of fiber misalignment. The main driver for these defects are the residual stresses introduced in the tow during the deposition stage by the AFP head. In contrast, the tack between the deposited tape and the substrate is the resisting force against the formation of such defects. Tack may be defined as the ability of a material to form a bond immediately on contact with another surface. Tack is a very complex phenomenon that is influenced by a variety of process parameters including temperature, head pressure and speed, as well as degree of cure, moisture content, and surface roughness A physics-based modeling framework for simulation of tack was developed in this study that allows for prediction of tack response. The developed tack model is incorporated in the AFP placement modelling framework developed to simulate AFP defects.

Forghani, Alireza↗

Intercomparison of the representations of the atmospheric chemistry of pre-industrial methane and ozone in earth system and other global chemistry-transport models

An intercomparison has been set up to study the representation of the atmospheric chemistry of the pre-industrial troposphere in earth system and other global tropospheric chemistry-transport models. The intercomparison employed a constrained box model and utilised tropospheric trace gas composition data for the pre-industrial times at ninety mid-latitude surface locations. Incremental additions of four organic compounds: methane, ethane, acetone and propane, were used to perturb the constrained box model and generate responses in hydroxyl radicals and tropospheric ozone at each location and with each chemical mechanism. Although the responses agreed well across the chemical mechanisms from the selected earth system and other global tropospheric chemistry-transport models, there were differences in the detailed responses between the chemical mechanisms that could be tracked down by sensitivity analysis to differences in the representation of C1–C3 chemistry. Inter-mechanism ranges in NOx compensation points were about 0.17 ± 0.12 when expressed relative to the inter-mechanism average. Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis carried out with a single chemical mechanism put the intra-mechanism range a factor of three higher at 0.50 ± 0.12. Similar differences between inter-mechanism and intra-mechanism ranges were found for hydroxyl radical depletion but were up to a factor of six wider for ozone formation from incremental additions of organic compounds. The cause of the discrepancies between the inter- and intra-mechanism ranges was found to be the large uncertainties that are present in the laboratory determinations of the rate coefficients and product channel branching ratios of some key chemical reactions involving organic peroxy radicals and hydroperoxides. Whilst these large uncertainties are present in the laboratory determinations, there will be irreducible uncertainties in the predictions from the earth system and other chemistry-transport models of methane and tropospheric ozone trends since pre-industrial times and hence their contributions to the radiative forcing of climate change. Further definitive laboratory studies of the reaction rates and product yields of the reactions of the simple organic peroxy radicals and hydroperoxides are required to resolve and reduce current uncertainties in earth system and chemistry-transport model predictions.

atmospheric chemistry↗

Doppler-Lidar Evaluation of HRRR-Model Skill at Simulating Summertime Wind Regimes in the Columbia River Basin during WFIP2

Complex-terrain locations often have repeatable near-surface wind patterns, such as synoptic gap flows and local thermally forced flows. An example is the Columbia River Valley in east-central Oregon-Washington, a significant wind-energy-generation region and the site of the Second Wind-Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2). Data from three Doppler lidars deployed during WFIP2 define and characterize summertime wind regimes and their large-scale contexts, and provide insight into NWP model errors by examining differences in the ability of a model [NOAA’s High-Resolution Rapid-Refresh (HRRR-version1)] to forecast wind-speed profiles for different regimes. Seven regimes were identified based on daily time series of the lidar-measured rotor-layer winds, which then suggested two broad categories. First, in three regimes the primary dynamic forcing was the large-scale pressure gradient. Second, in two regimes the dominant forcing was the diurnal heating-cooling cycle (regional sea-breeze-type dynamics), including the marine intrusion previously described, which generates strong nocturnal winds over the region. The other two included a hybrid regime and a non-conforming regime. For the large-scale pressure-gradient regimes, HRRR had wind-speed biases of ~1 m s -1 and RMSEs of 2-3 m s -1 . Errors were much larger for the thermally forced regimes, owing to the premature demise of the strong nocturnal flow in HRRR. Thus, the more dominant the role of surface heating in generating the flow, the larger the errors. Major errors could result from surface heating of the atmosphere, boundary-layer responses to that heating, and associated terrain interactions. Finally, measurement/modeling research programs should be aimed at determining which modeled processes produce the largest errors, so those processes can be improved and errors reduced.

17 WIND ENERGY↗