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DOE OSTI2021

Data Driven Approach to Analyzing The Impact of Power Plant Cycling on Air Preheater Degradation and Remaining Useful Life

Due to the increased penetration of renewable energy generation sources, and fluctuations of the oil and gas prices, modern coal burning power plants deal with increased variability in the demand for power generation. These varying demands result in their intermittent under-capacity operation (cycling). Periodical ramping down and back up to follow the daily power demands causes damages to the plant components reducing its operational life. In this paper we analyze the impact of cycling on a rotary Ljungstrom air preheater (APH) unit installed at a coal fire power plant in the US. An inefficient air preheater can significantly impact boiler performance. Due to the repeated boiler’s hot-cold start, the APH experiences fluctuating operating conditions that result in accelerated degradation mechanisms, such as dew-point corrosion, fouling/deposition plugging, and air heater leakage. The analysis in this paper utilizes field data related to APH basket replacement, and the number of cycles experienced by the boiler to model the life expectancy of the baskets. The data-driven model enables preventive maintenance strategies for the APH by predicting how long the APH baskets will last in a probabilistic sense. Furthermore, the analysis showed that an increase in cycling for a fixed operation time can reduce the APH basket remaining useful life by about 30%.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

NASA NTRS2000

Comprehensive Design Reliability Activities for Aerospace Propulsion Systems

This technical publication describes the methodology, model, software tool, input data, and analysis result that support aerospace design reliability studies. The focus of these activities is on propulsion systems mechanical design reliability. The goal of these activities is to support design from a reliability perspective. Paralleling performance analyses in schedule and method, this requires the proper use of metrics in a validated reliability model useful for design, sensitivity, and trade studies. Design reliability analysis in this view is one of several critical design functions. A design reliability method is detailed and two example analyses are provided-one qualitative and the other quantitative. The use of aerospace and commercial data sources for quantification is discussed and sources listed. A tool that was developed to support both types of analyses is presented. Finally, special topics discussed include the development of design criteria, issues of reliability quantification, quality control, and reliability verification.

Christenson, R. L.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Analysis of human performance differences between students and operators when using the Rancor Microworld simulator

Here, from within the umbrella of the Simplified Human Error Experimental Program (SHEEP) framework, this paper analyzes human performance differences between professional and student operators when using a simplified simulator (i.e., Rancor Microworld). This paper represents a crucial step in understanding the fidelity of the simplified simulators and student operators within the SHEEP study. This paper explores a randomized factorial experimental design that features two independent variables: participant type and event class. Six human performance measurements are considered in the experiment. The experiment is conducted using 20 professional reactor operators employed at actual nuclear power plants (NPPs), along with 20 trained students. The experimental data are analyzed via statistical analysis methods. Finally, this paper examines the differences in human performance between actual operators and students when using Rancor Microworld.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2017

A Systematic Approach to Applying Lean Techniques to Optimize an Office Process at the Y-12 National Security Complex

This capstone offers the introduction of Lean concepts to an office activity to demonstrate the versatility of Lean. Traditionally Lean has been associated with process improvements as applied to an industrial atmosphere. However, this paper will demonstrate that implementing Lean concepts within an office activity can result in significant process improvements. Lean first emerged with the conception of the Toyota Production System. This innovative concept was designed to improve productivity in the automotive industry by eliminating waste and variation. Lean has also been applied to office environments, however the limited literature reveals most Lean techniques within an office are restricted to one or two techniques. Our capstone confronts these restrictions by introducing a systematic approach that utilizes multiple Lean concepts. The approach incorporates: system analysis, system reliability, system requirements, and system feasibility. The methodical Lean outline provides tools for a successful outcome, which ensures the process is thoroughly dissected and can be achieved for any process in any work environment.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

NASA NTRS1990

Calculation of Weibull strength parameters, Batdorf flaw density constants and related statistical quantities using PC-CARES

This manual describes the operation and theory of the PC-CARES (Personal Computer-Ceramic Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures) computer program for the IBM PC and compatibles running PC-DOS/MS-DOR OR IBM/MS-OS/2 (version 1.1 or higher) operating systems. The primary purpose of this code is to estimate Weibull material strength parameters, the Batdorf crack density coefficient, and other related statistical quantities. Included in the manual is the description of the calculation of shape and scale parameters of the two-parameter Weibull distribution using the least-squares analysis and maximum likelihood methods for volume- and surface-flaw-induced fracture in ceramics with complete and censored samples. The methods for detecting outliers and for calculating the Kolmogorov-Smirnov and the Anderson-Darling goodness-of-fit statistics and 90 percent confidence bands about the Weibull line, as well as the techniques for calculating the Batdorf flaw-density constants are also described.

Szatmary, Steven A.↗

DOE OSTI2018

Colorimetric-Luminance Readout for Quantitative Analysis of Fluorescence Signals with a Smartphone CMOS Sensor

Smartphones have shown promise as an enabling technology for portable and distributed point-of-care diagnostic tests. The CMOS camera sensor can be used for detecting optical signals, including fluorescence for applications such as isothermal nucleic acid amplification tests. However, such analysis is typically limited mostly to end point detection of single targets. In this paper, we present a smartphone-based image analysis pipeline that utilizes the CIE xyY (chromaticity-luminance) color space to measure the luminance (in lieu of RGB intensities) of fluorescent signals arising from nucleic acid amplification targets, with a discrimination sensitivity (ratio between the positive to negative signals), which is an order of magnitude more than traditional RGB intensity based analysis. Furthermore, the chromaticity part of the analysis enables reliable multiplexed detection of different targets labeled with spectrally separated fluorophores. We apply this chromaticity-luminance formulation to simultaneously detect Zika and chikungunya viral RNA via end point RT-LAMP (Reverse transcription Loop-Mediated isothermal amplification). We also show real time LAMP detection of Neisseria gonorrhoeae samples down to a copy number of 3.5 copies per 10 μL of reaction volume in our smartphone-operated portable LAMP box. Finally, our chromaticity-luminance analysis is readily adaptable to other types of multiplexed fluorescence measurements using a smartphone camera.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2015

A fast and reliable readout method for quantitative analysis of surface-enhanced Raman scattering nanoprobes on chip surface

Surface-enhanced Raman scattering techniques have been widely used for bioanalysis due to its high sensitivity and multiplex capacity. However, the point-scanning method using a micro-Raman system, which is the most common method in the literature, has a disadvantage of extremely long measurement time for on-chip immunoassay adopting a large chip area of approximately 1-mm scale and confocal beam point of ca. 1-μm size. Alternative methods such as sampled spot scan with high confocality and large-area scan method with enlarged field of view and low confocality have been utilized in order to minimize the measurement time practically. In this study, we analyzed the two methods in respect of signal-to-noise ratio and sampling-led signal fluctuations to obtain insights into a fast and reliable readout strategy. On this basis, we proposed a methodology for fast and reliable quantitative measurement of the whole chip area. The proposed method adopted a raster scan covering a full area of 100 μm × 100 μm region as a proof-of-concept experiment while accumulating signals in the CCD detector for single spectrum per frame. One single scan with 10 s over 100 μm × 100 μm area yielded much higher sensitivity compared to sampled spot scanning measurements and no signal fluctuations attributed to sampled spot scan. This readout method is able to serve as one of key technologies that will bring quantitative multiplexed detection and analysis into practice.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

NASA NTRS2007

Accounting for Uncertainties in Strengths of SiC MEMS Parts

A methodology has been devised for accounting for uncertainties in the strengths of silicon carbide structural components of microelectromechanical systems (MEMS). The methodology enables prediction of the probabilistic strengths of complexly shaped MEMS parts using data from tests of simple specimens. This methodology is intended to serve as a part of a rational basis for designing SiC MEMS, supplementing methodologies that have been borrowed from the art of designing macroscopic brittle material structures. The need for this or a similar methodology arises as a consequence of the fundamental nature of MEMS and the brittle silicon-based materials of which they are typically fabricated. When tested to fracture, MEMS and structural components thereof show wide part-to-part scatter in strength. The methodology involves the use of the Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures Life (CARES/Life) software in conjunction with the ANSYS Probabilistic Design System (PDS) software to simulate or predict the strength responses of brittle material components while simultaneously accounting for the effects of variability of geometrical features on the strength responses. As such, the methodology involves the use of an extended version of the ANSYS/CARES/PDS software system described in Probabilistic Prediction of Lifetimes of Ceramic Parts (LEW-17682-1/4-1), Software Tech Briefs supplement to NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 30, No. 9 (September 2006), page 10. The ANSYS PDS software enables the ANSYS finite-element-analysis program to account for uncertainty in the design-and analysis process. The ANSYS PDS software accounts for uncertainty in material properties, dimensions, and loading by assigning probabilistic distributions to user-specified model parameters and performing simulations using various sampling techniques.

Nemeth, Noel↗

NASA NTRS2017

Environmental Barrier Coating Fracture, Fatigue and High-Heat-Flux Durability Modeling and Stochastic Progressive Damage Simulation

Advanced environmental barrier coatings will play an increasingly important role in future gas turbine engines because of their ability to protect emerging light-weight SiC/SiC ceramic matrix composite (CMC) engine components, further raising engine operating temperatures and performance. Because the environmental barrier coating systems are critical to the performance, reliability and durability of these hot-section ceramic engine components, a prime-reliant coating system along with established life design methodology are required for the hot-section ceramic component insertion into engine service. In this paper, we have first summarized some observations of high temperature, high-heat-flux environmental degradation and failure mechanisms of environmental barrier coating systems in laboratory simulated engine environment tests. In particular, the coating surface cracking morphologies and associated subsequent delamination mechanisms under the engine level high-heat-flux, combustion steam, and mechanical creep and fatigue loading conditions will be discussed. The EBC compostion and archtechture improvements based on advanced high heat flux environmental testing, and the modeling advances based on the integrated Finite Element Analysis Micromechanics Analysis Code/Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures (FEAMAC/CARES) program will also be highlighted. The stochastic progressive damage simulation successfully predicts mud flat damage pattern in EBCs on coated 3-D specimens, and a 2-D model of through-the-thickness cross-section. A 2-parameter Weibull distribution was assumed in characterizing the coating layer stochastic strength response and the formation of damage was therefore modeled. The damage initiation and coalescence into progressively smaller mudflat crack cells was demonstrated. A coating life prediction framework may be realized by examining the surface crack initiation and delamination propagation in conjunction with environmental degradation under high-heat-flux and environment load test conditions.

Mechanical creep and fatigue loading condition↗

DOE OSTI2021

An Experimental Analysis on the CNS Simulator Comparing Human Performance between Operators and Students

This study, as a previous study of the SHEEP project, aims to identify differences in human performance data through experiments with students and operators using CNS (Compact Nuclear Simulator). To achieve this goal, this experiment seeks to analyze the correlation of measured human performance between students and operators through a randomized factorial experiment design. Five human performances are measured. In addition, several scenarios and related procedures have been developed for the CNS experiments.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2023

The importance of capturing power system operational details in resource adequacy assessments

Traditional methods for assessing the resource adequacy (RA) of a power system are becoming obsolete due to emerging trends such as the increasing deployment of variable renewable energy and storage. Consequently, analysts are recommending that RA be assessed using a Monte Carlo simulation approach that models chronological power system operations over many instances of possible operating conditions. However, this approach is necessarily more complex and computationally demanding, which is an obstacle to real-world implementation. Here, in this study, we investigate which operational details of power systems are important to capture in order to accurately evaluate a system's RA, versus details that add complexity but do not meaningfully affect RA results. To do so, we develop a probabilistic RA assessment framework by adapting an existing production cost model and apply it to a case study based on the IEEE Reliability Test System. Our results indicate that multi-year data, storage dispatch, and transmission limits are key details to incorporate. Accurate RA results can be obtained using non-economic dispatch strategies as long as they are coordinated with detailed operational strategies. We also demonstrate how popular expectation-based RA metrics can mask important differences in the characteristics of loss of load events.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2015

A method for the estimation of p-mode parameters from averaged solar oscillation power spectra

A new fitting methodology is presented that is equally well suited for the estimation of low-, medium-, and high-degree mode parameters from m-averaged solar oscillation power spectra of widely differing spectral resolution. This method, which we call the “Windowed, MuLTiple-Peak, averaged-spectrum” or WMLTP Method, constructs a theoretical profile by convolving the weighted sum of the profiles of the modes appearing in the fitting box with the power spectrum of the window function of the observing run, using weights from a leakage matrix that takes into account observational and physical effects, such as the distortion of modes by solar latitudinal differential rotation. We demonstrate that the WMLTP Method makes substantial improvements in the inferences of the properties of the solar oscillations in comparison with a previous method, which employed a single profile to represent each spectral peak. We also present an inversion for the internal solar structure, which is based upon 6366 modes that we computed using the WMLTP method on the 66 day 2010 Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/MDI Dynamics Run. To improve both the numerical stability and reliability of the inversion, we developed a new procedure for the identification and correction of outliers in a frequency dataset. We present evidence for a pronounced departure of the sound speed in the outer half of the solar convection zone and in the subsurface shear layer from the radial sound speed profile contained in Model S of Christensen-Dalsgaard and his collaborators that existed in the rising phase of Solar Cycle 24 during mid-2010.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Intrepid MCMC: Metropolis-Hastings with exploration

In engineering examples, one often encounters the need to sample from unnormalized distributions with complex shapes that may also be implicitly defined through a physical or numerical simulation model, making it computationally expensive to evaluate the associated density function. For such cases, MCMC has proven to be an invaluable tool. Random-walk Metropolis Methods (also known as Metropolis-Hastings (MH)), in particular, are highly popular for their simplicity, flexibility, and ease of implementation. However, most MH algorithms suffer from significant limitations when attempting to sample from distributions with multiple modes (particularly disconnected ones). Here, in this paper, we present Intrepid MCMC - a novel MH scheme that utilizes a simple coordinate transformation to significantly improve the mode-finding ability and convergence rate to the target distribution of random-walk Markov chains while retaining most of the simplicity of the vanilla MH paradigm. Through multiple examples, we showcase the improvement in the performance of Intrepid MCMC over vanilla MH for a wide variety of target distribution shapes. We also provide an analysis of the mixing behavior of the Intrepid Markov chain, as well as the efficiency of our algorithm for increasing dimensions. A thorough discussion is presented on the practical implementation of the Intrepid MCMC algorithm. Finally, its utility is highlighted through a Bayesian parameter inference problem for a two-degree-of-freedom oscillator under free vibration.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

srlife : A software tool for estimating the life of high temperature concentrating solar receivers. Part II – Ceramic receivers

As Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) technologies aim for higher operating temperatures to enhance efficiency and meet industrial process heat demands, high-temperature metallic materials, including nickel-based superalloys, face challenges in maintaining structural integrity. Advanced ceramics offer a promising alternative due to their superior high-temperature strength. However, accurately assessing the performance of ceramic components requires a fundamentally different approach from that used for metallic components. This Part II of a two-part paper describes the integration of ceramic statistical failure models within srlife – an open-source tool for predicting the life of high-temperature CSP receivers. These models account for the inherent variability in ceramic strength, as well as the effects of subcritical crack growth (SCG) under high temperature cyclic loads. Here, the paper includes an example problem that demonstrate the process of evaluating ceramic receivers using srlife. Part I details the life estimation process for metallic receivers (i.e. creep-fatigue life) along with input and output data structure, thermohydraulic analysis, and structural analysis. The complete tool is available as open-source software at https://github.com/srlife-project/srlife and can be installed via the PyPi package manager (https://pypi.org). By supporting both ceramic and metallic receiver analyses, srlife facilitates fair comparisons between competing metallic and ceramic designs, enabling accurate evaluations of plant efficiency and the economic benefits of ceramic solar receivers and other components.

High temperature ceramic receivers↗

DOE OSTI2023

Simulation-Based Recovery Action Analysis Using the EMRALD Dynamic Risk Assessment Tool

A recovery action is defined as the action that prevents deviant conditions from producing unwanted effects. It generally indicates a kind of countermeasure performed in response to a failure of human action. The recovery actions especially play an important role in complex systems like nuclear power plants (NPPs), which consist of highly sophisticated controllers to ensure that desired performance and safety must be achieved and maintained. This is because a combination of human error and its recovery failure may be able to cause a catastrophic effect on a system. Analyzing recovery actions has been a critical part of HRA, which is a technique to evaluate human errors and provide human error probabilities (HEPs) for application in probabilistic safety assessment (PSA). If recovery actions are not adequately analyzed and applied to PSA models, the PSA results may be under-estimated or be not able to reasonably account for the failure of human actions in the context of PSA. For this reason, some regulatory documents such as ASME/ANS RA-Sb-2013 by the American Society for Mechanical Engineers and the American Nuclear Society and NUREG-1792 by U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission have emphasized the importance of recovery analysis within the HRA. A couple of existing HRA methods, such as the Technique for Human Error-Rate Prediction (THERP), the Cause-Based Decision Tree (CBDT), and the Korean Standard HRA (K-HRA), have respectively suggested their own approaches to the HRA recovery analysis. However, there are a couple of limitations to treating recovery actions using only the current HRA methods available. The biggest limitation is that the existing recovery analysis does not explicitly consider a variety of recovery action types and recovery sequences as they occur in actual NPPs. To handle the limitations of existing recovery analysis, this study proposes a simulation-based recovery analysis method using the Event Modeling Risk Assessment Using Linked Diagram (EMRALD) software. The EMRALD software is a dynamic simulation tool for PSA. It supports realistic and dynamic modeling of human actions as they would be performed at NPPs. It is also favorable to simultaneously model the specific moment at which an action is performed, the time it takes to perform the action, and the failure probability of that action. In this paper, a detailed methodology for modeling recovery actions in the simulation platform is proposed with a couple of examples. Then, outputs from the simulation are discussed as reviewing if this novel approach can complement the challenges of existing recovery analyses.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2014

Evaluation of image guided motion management methods in lung cancer radiotherapy

Purpose: To evaluate the accuracy and reliability of three target localization methods for image guided motion management in lung cancer radiotherapy. Methods: Three online image localization methods, including (1) 2D method based on 2D cone beam (CB) projection images, (2) 3D method using 3D cone beam CT (CBCT) imaging, and (3) 4D method using 4D CBCT imaging, have been evaluated using a moving phantom controlled by (a) 1D theoretical breathing motion curves and (b) 3D target motion patterns obtained from daily treatment of 3 lung cancer patients. While all methods are able to provide target mean position (MP), the 2D and 4D methods can also provide target motion standard deviation (SD) and excursion (EX). For each method, the detected MP/SD/EX values are compared to the analytically calculated actual values to calculate the errors. The MP errors are compared among three methods and the SD/EX errors are compared between the 2D and 4D methods. In the theoretical motion study (a), the dependency of MP/SD/EX error on EX is investigated with EX varying from 2.0 cm to 3.0 cm with an increment step of 0.2 cm. In the patient motion study (b), the dependency of MP error on target sizes (2.0 cm and 3.0 cm), motion patterns (four motions per patient) and EX variations is investigated using multivariant linear regression analysis. Results: In the theoretical motion study (a), the MP detection errors are −0.2 ± 0.2, −1.5 ± 1.1, and −0.2 ± 0.2 mm for 2D, 3D, and 4D methods, respectively. Both the 2D and 4D methods could accurately detect motion pattern EX (error < 1.2 mm) and SD (error < 1.0 mm). In the patient motion study (b), MP detection error vector (mm) with the 2D method (0.7 ± 0.4) is found to be significantly less than with the 3D method (1.7 ± 0.8,p < 0.001) and the 4D method (1.4 ± 1.0, p < 0.001) using paired t-test. However, no significant difference is found between the 4D method and the 3D method. Based on multivariant linear regression analysis, the variances of MP error in SI direction explained by target sizes, motion patterns, and EX variations are 9% with the 2D method, 74.4% with the 3D method, and 27% with the 4D method. The EX/SD detection errors are both < 1.0 mm for the 2D method and < 2.0 mm for the 4D method. Conclusions: The 2D method provides the most accurate MP detection regardless of the motion pattern variations, while its performance is limited by the accuracy of target identification in the projection images. The 3D method causes the largest error in MP determination, and its accuracy significantly depends on target sizes, motion patterns, and EX variations. The 4D method provides moderate MP detection results, while its accuracy relies on a regular motion pattern. In addition, the 2D and 4D methods both provide accurate measurement of the motion SD/EX, providing extra information for motion management.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

DOE OSTI2016

SU-G-201-14: Is Maximum Skin Dose a Reliable Metric for Accelerated Partial Breast Irradiation with Brachytherapy?

Purpose: To evaluate the reliability of the maximum point dose (Dmax) to the skin surface as a dosimetric constraint, we investigated the correlation between Dmax at the skin surface and dose metrics at various definitions of skin thickness. Methods: 42 patients treated with APBI using a Strut Adjusted Volume Implant (SAVI) applicator between 2010 and 2014 were retrospectively reviewed. Target (PTV-EVAL) and organs at risk (OARs: skin, lung, and ribs) were delineated on a CT following NSABP B-39 guidelines. Six skin structures were contoured: a rind 3cm external to the body surface and 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5mm thick rinds deep to the body surface. Inverse planning simulated annealing optimization was used to deliver 32–34Gy in 8-10 fractions to the target while minimizing OAR doses. Dmax, D0.1cc, D1.0cc, and D2.0cc to the various skin structures were calculated. Linear regressions between the metrics were evaluated using the coefficient of determination (R{sup 2}). Results: The average±SD PTV-EVAL volume and cavity-to-skin distances were 71.1±28.5cc and 6.9±5.0mm. The target V90 and V95 were 97.3±2.3% and 95.1±3.2%. The Dmax to the skin structures were 78.7±10.2% (skin surface), 82.2±10.7% (skin-1mm), 89.4±12.6% (skin-2mm), 97.9±15.4% (skin-3mm), 114.1±32.5% (skin-4mm), and 157.0±85.3% (skin-5mm). Linear regression analysis showed D1.0cc and D2.0cc to the skin 1mm and Dmax to the skin-4mm and 5mm were poorly correlated with other metrics (R{sup 2}=0.413±0.204). Dmax to the skin surface was well correlated (R{sup 2}=0.910±0.047) and D1.0cc to the skin-3mm was strongly correlated with all subsurface skin layers (R{sup 2}=0.935±0.050). Conclusion: Dmax to the skin surface is a relevant metric for breast skin dose. Contouring discontinuities in the skin with a 1mm subsurface rind and the active dwells in the skin 4 and 5mm introduced significant variations in skin DVH. D0.1cc, D1.0cc, and D2.0cc to a 3mm skin rind are more robust metrics in breast brachytherapy.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2015

Reliability and Probabilistic Risk Assessment - How They Play Together

PRA methodology is one of the probabilistic analysis methods that NASA brought from the nuclear industry to assess the risk of LOM, LOV and LOC for launch vehicles. PRA is a system scenario based risk assessment that uses a combination of fault trees, event trees, event sequence diagrams, and probability and statistical data to analyze the risk of a system, a process, or an activity. It is a process designed to answer three basic questions: What can go wrong? How likely is it? What is the severity of the degradation? Since 1986, NASA, along with industry partners, has conducted a number of PRA studies to predict the overall launch vehicles risks. Planning Research Corporation conducted the first of these studies in 1988. In 1995, Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) conducted a comprehensive PRA study. In July 1996, NASA conducted a two-year study (October 1996 - September 1998) to develop a model that provided the overall Space Shuttle risk and estimates of risk changes due to proposed Space Shuttle upgrades. After the Columbia accident, NASA conducted a PRA on the Shuttle External Tank (ET) foam. This study was the most focused and extensive risk assessment that NASA has conducted in recent years. It used a dynamic, physics-based, integrated system analysis approach to understand the integrated system risk due to ET foam loss in flight. Most recently, a PRA for Ares I launch vehicle has been performed in support of the Constellation program. Reliability, on the other hand, addresses the loss of functions. In a broader sense, reliability engineering is a discipline that involves the application of engineering principles to the design and processing of products, both hardware and software, for meeting product reliability requirements or goals. It is a very broad design-support discipline. It has important interfaces with many other engineering disciplines. Reliability as a figure of merit (i.e. the metric) is the probability that an item will perform its intended function(s) for a specified mission profile. In general, the reliability metric can be calculated through the analyses using reliability demonstration and reliability prediction methodologies. Reliability analysis is very critical for understanding component failure mechanisms and in identifying reliability critical design and process drivers. The following sections discuss the PRA process and reliability engineering in detail and provide an application where reliability analysis and PRA were jointly used in a complementary manner to support a Space Shuttle flight risk assessment.

Safie, Fayssal M.↗