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At least 829 records · Page 46
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Cross-scale sensing of field-level crop residue cover: Integrating field photos, airborne hyperspectral imaging, and satellite data

Conservation tillage practices can bring benefits to agricultural sustainability. Accurate spatial and temporal resolved information of field-scale crop residue cover, which reflects tillage intensity, is highly valuable for evaluating the outcomes of government conservation programs and voluntary ecosystem service markets, as well as facilitating agroecosystem modeling to quantify cropland biogeochemical processes. Remote sensing has the potential to cost-effectively detect crop residue cover, however, existing regional-scale studies were limited by insufficient ground truth data, scale mismatch between coarse satellite pixels and ground data, and the lack of key spectral data for detecting crop residues. Therefore, this study developed an innovative cross-sensing framework to integrate proximal sensing, airborne hyperspectral imaging, and satellite Earth Observation through deep learning to quantify field-level crop residue cover fractions at the regional scale. Specifically, we have collected intensive ground orthographic photos and conducted airborne hyperspectral surveys at corn and soybean fields of Champaign and nearby counties in Illinois, the heartland of the U.S. Corn Belt. Through semi-automatic labeling aided by ResNet-50 and superpixel image segmentation, we obtained 6719 records of ground residue fractions. With these ground data, we developed the 1-dimensional convolution neural network (CNN) model using airborne hyperspectral reflectance, which has 0.5m spatial resolution and 3–5 nm spectral resolution from 400 to 2400 nm, to predict residue fractions. By applying the CNN model to airborne pixels, we augmented “ground truth” data of crop residues and further combined them with Harmonized Landsat and Sentinel-2 (HLS) satellite data to quantify regional residue fractions at 30 m resolution. Results show that airborne hyperspectral imagery with CNN can accurately detect residue fractions (R 2 = 0.82, relative RMSE = 11.73%) to effectively generate quasi “ground truth” data to support satellite upscaling to all fields. With independent ground data for testing, we found that the ground-airborne-satellite integrative framework achieved better predictions in estimating crop residue cover (R 2 = 0.67, relative RMSE = 17.53%) than the conventional ground-satellite upscaling (R 2 = 0.22, relative RMSE = 32.09%). Here we also found that the shortwave infrared wavelengths, particularly 2100–2300 nm, are vital for predicting crop residue cover. Sentinel-2 and Landsat-8 data have a comparable capability to track residue fractions due to similar shortwave infrared wavelengths. This study highlights the high accuracy of hyperspectral imaging to detect agroecosystem tillage management practices and the advantages of cross-scale sensing to cost-effectively integrate multi-source data to quantify field-level agroecosystem variables across scales.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Classification of gaseous UF 6 assay by femtosecond LIBS in the 424.4 nm spectral region using numerical HOGSVD-DTW features

This technical note presents experimental results using numerical features of fs-LIBS data to classify the assay value of a gaseous UF 6 material. Here, the data-driven feature vectors are computed by Higher Order Generalized Singular Value Decomposition (HOGSVD) and Dynamic Time Warp (DTW). The method achieves 96.97% accuracy in spectral classification testing with fs-LIBS samples obtained from a UF 6 material with five known assay values ranging from 0.287% to 61.740%, with 100% accuracy for the four largest assay values ranging from 4.615% to 61.740%.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2023

Analytical nonadiabatic coupling and state-specific energy gradient for the crystal field Hamiltonian describing lanthanide single-ion magnets

Paramagnetic molecules with a metal ion as an electron spin center are promising building blocks for molecular qubits and high-density memory arrays. However, fast spin relaxation and decoherence in these molecules lead to a rapid loss of magnetization and quantum information. Nonadiabatic coupling (NAC), closely related to spin-vibrational coupling, is the main source of spin relaxation and decoherence in paramagnetic molecules at higher temperatures. Predicting these couplings using numerical differentiation requires a large number of computationally intensive ab initio or crystal field electronic structure calculations. To reduce computational cost and improve accuracy, we derive and implement analytical NAC and state-specific energy gradient for the ab initio parametrized crystal field Hamiltonian describing single-ion molecular magnets. Our implementation requires only a single crystal field calculation. In addition, the accurate NACs and state-specific energy gradients can be used to model spin relaxation using sophisticated nonadiabatic molecular dynamics, which avoids the harmonic approximation for molecular vibrations. To test our implementation, we calculate the NAC values for three lanthanide complexes. Finally, the predicted values support the relaxation mechanisms reported in previous studies.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Identification of Distorted Gamma-Ray Signature Patterns Using Digital Filtering and Auto-Associative Memory Implemented with a Hopfield Neural Network

The detection and identification of radioactive sources in search applications involve analyzing passive gamma-ray emissions from high-level radioactive materials. This process uses a mobile detector-spectrometer in a complex field test environment. Recently, the use of artificial intelligence for gamma-ray spectrum analysis has shown promising results. However, challenges persist in identifying isotopic signatures from spectral measurements that may be distorted due to source shielding, random variations in natural radioactive background, or insufficient measurement time to obtain clear spectral lines. Here, this paper presents a novel intelligent signature recognition method that combines digital filtering techniques with an artificial Hopfield Neural Network (HNN). The HNN leverages auto-associative memory to store training sample patterns and match them with incoming gamma spectra from distorted sources. It restores the testing sources’ measurements by finding the closest matching signature patterns in the spectral library. Before HNN recognition, the measured spectrum undergoes preprocessing with a digital image filter to reduce fluctuations. Performance of the proposed method is evaluated using a set of gamma-ray spectra measured with a sodium iodide detector. The data collected include measurements from six pure samples: 241 Am, 60 Co, 137 Cs, 192 Ir, 239 Pu, and 235 U, which are used for training and validation (i.e. six cases). Additionally, the data set contains 24 distorted synthesized sources with various fluctuating backgrounds. Test results demonstrate the potential of the proposed method to accurately recognize the correct isotope with high precision, achieving an accuracy rate exceeding 85%. Furthermore, the proposed method exhibits superior performance compared to the conventional multiple regression fitting and simple feedforward neural network methods.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2020

Coordinate parameterisation and spectral method optimisation for Beltrami field solver in stellarator geometry

The numerical solution of the stepped pressure equilibrium (Hudson et al 2012 Phys. Plasmas 19 112502) requires a fast and robust solver to obtain the Beltrami field in three-dimensional geometry such as stellarators. The spectral method implemented in the stepped pressure equilibrium code (SPEC) is efficient when the domain is a hollow torus, but ill-conditioning of the discretised linear equations occurs in the (solid) toroid due to the artificially singular coordinate parameterisation near the axis. Here, we propose an improved choice for the reference axis to prevent coordinates surfaces from overlapping. Then, we examine the parity and asymptotics of the magnetic vector potential near the axis and suggest the use of recombined and rescaled Zernike radial basis functions. The maximum relative error in the magnetic field of the Wendelstein 7-X geometry is shown to reach 10 –9 at high resolution in a series of convergence tests and benchmarks against the boundary integral equation solver for Taylor states. The new method is also reported to significantly improve the accuracy of multi-volume SPEC calculations. A comparison between free-boundary SPEC and the analytical Dommaschk potential is presented with higher-than-usual Fourier resolution. It is illustrated that we are able to resolve low amplitude current sheets when an interface is placed where there is no flux surface in the analytic solution. This was previously concealed because of insufficient numerical resolution.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Chemical and steric effects in simulating noncontact atomic force microscopy images of organic molecules on a Cu (111) substrate

Noncontact mode of atomic force microscopy (nc-AFM) employing a CO-functionalized tip is a very powerful tool for studying molecular structures. However, interpreting nc-AFM images for nonplanar molecules can sometimes be problematic. To illustrate and resolve the nature of such problematic systems, we employ real-space pseudopotentials constructed within density functional theory to simulate nc-AFM images. In this work, we focus on several representative nonplanar organic molecules (pentacene, naphthanthrone, olympicene, and 6-phenylhexa-1,3,5-triynybenzene (PHTB)) on a typical substrate: the Cu (111) surface. This substrate results in significant distortions in the molecular geometries of pentacene and naphthanthrone. Including these distortions in simulated nc-AFM imaging notably improves the agreement between the simulated and measured images. In naphthanthrone, the relatively large interaction between the O atom and the Cu substrate offers a straightforward explanation for the absence of the C = O bond in the measured image. Nonplanar features such as tilting or twisting are also apparent in olympicene and PHTB. A “triangular” bright feature associated with the –CH 2 group in olympicene appears in simulated and measured nc-AFM images. This feature is directly related to the tilting angle of the molecule with respect to the Cu substrate. The “defective” benzene ring feature and the faint ellipsoidal C ≡ C feature in PHTB can be ascribed to its twisted nature. The ability to simulate such subatomic images in nc-AFM reflects the accuracy and efficiency of calculating quantum forces in real space.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2022

Demographic composition, not demographic diversity, predicts biomass and turnover across temperate and tropical forests

The growth and survival of individual trees determine the physical structure of a forest with important consequences for forest function. However, given the diversity of tree species and forest biomes, quantifying the multitude of demographic strategies within and across forests and the way that they translate into forest structure and function remains a significant challenge. Here, we quantify the demographic rates of 1961 tree species from temperate and tropical forests and evaluate how demographic diversity (DD) and demographic composition (DC) differ across forests, and how these differences in demography relate to species richness, aboveground biomass (AGB), and carbon residence time. We find wide variation in DD and DC across forest plots, patterns that are not explained by species richness or climate variables alone. There is no evidence that DD has an effect on either AGB or carbon residence time. Rather, the DC of forests, specifically the relative abundance of large statured species, predicted both biomass and carbon residence time. Our results demonstrate the distinct DCs of globally distributed forests, reflecting biogeography, recent history, and current plot conditions. Linking the DC of forests to resilience or vulnerability to climate change, will improve the precision and accuracy of predictions of future forest composition, structure, and function.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Accurate prediction of protein structures and interactions using a three-track neural network

DeepMind presented notably accurate predictions at the recent 14th Critical Assessment of Structure Prediction (CASP14) conference. We explored network architectures that incorporate related ideas and obtained the best performance with a three-track network in which information at the one-dimensional (1D) sequence level, the 2D distance map level, and the 3D coordinate level is successively transformed and integrated. The three-track network produces structure predictions with accuracies approaching those of DeepMind in CASP14, enables the rapid solution of challenging x-ray crystallography and cryo–electron microscopy structure modeling problems, and provides insights into the functions of proteins of currently unknown structure. The network also enables rapid generation of accurate protein-protein complex models from sequence information alone, short-circuiting traditional approaches that require modeling of individual subunits followed by docking. Here, we make the method available to the scientific community to speed biological research.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Southwest Regional Partnership on Carbon Sequestration: Phase III (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

The Southwest Regional Partnership on Carbon Sequestration (SWP) is one of 7 regional partnerships formed in 2003 under the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnerships (RCSPs) initiative. The overall purpose of the initiative was to help determine and implement the technology, infrastructure, and regulations most appropriate to promote carbon storage in different regions of the country. Covering Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Utah, and parts of Texas, Wyoming, and Kansas, the SWP evaluated regional carbon storage and utilization potential and focused on technologies and sites that could complement the region’s strong position in energy production. The project progressed through three phases: • Phase I (2003–2005): Characterized regional geologic formations and CO 2 sources, assessed sequestration potential, and identified pilot test sites. • Phase II (2005–2013): Conducted small-scale field tests to validate sequestration methods, including geologic and terrestrial projects. • Phase III (2008–2022): Demonstrated large-scale CO 2 injection at a commercial oil field to test monitoring, verification, and long-term storage strategies. This report covers Phase III. The final project site, the Farnsworth Unit (FWU) in Texas, provided real-world testing of reservoir characterization, monitoring, and risk evaluation tools and processes that could be used in any commercial scale carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) project. Extensive data collection and analysis helped refine best practices for reservoir characterization, injection monitoring, and storage verification. The SWP contributed to national databases, DOE best practice manuals, and regional geological assessments to support future sequestration efforts. Key lessons learned include the importance of robust data management, strategic site selection, regulatory navigation, and effective industry collaboration. The project’s findings will inform ongoing and future carbon storage initiatives. Task 1 (Regional Characterization) • The SWP continued to participate in national outreach efforts and NATCARB. • The SWP evaluated multiple potential sites before selecting the FWU as the primary field test location. Task 2 (Public Outreach and Education) • The SWP contributed to national databases, DOE best practice manuals, and regional geological assessments to support future sequestration efforts. Task 3 (Permitting and Regulatory Compliance) • The SWP ensured compliance with federal and state regulations, including National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) requirements. • The SWP obtained all necessary permits for drilling, injection, and monitoring activities. Task 4 (Site Characterization and Planning) • The SWP developed work plans for four key activities: characterization, simulation, monitoring and verification, and risk evaluation. • The SWP collected and synthesized legacy data from multiple sources to build initial static geological models and dynamic reservoir models demonstrating project feasibility. • The SWP conducted an initial risk evaluation and developed mitigation plans. Task 5 (Field Operations and Data Collection) • The SWP drilled, logged, and cored three characterization wells to gather critical subsurface data. • The SWP conducted multiple geophysical surveys, including 3D seismic, crosswell seismic, and vertical seismic profiling, to improve reservoir characterization. Task 6 (Monitoring and Verification) • The SWP performed extensive geological characterization using data from characterization wells and seismic surveys. • The SWP established a surface monitoring network to track CO 2 flux in soil gas, groundwater chemistry, and near-surface atmospheric CO 2 levels. • The SWP built and refined reservoir models to study the effects of relative permeability on simulation behavior and improve calibration with experimental data. Task 7 (Risk Assessment and Model Refinement) • The SWP conducted multiple studies to evaluate reservoir integrity, predict CO 2 plume behavior and improve predictive modeling capabilities. • The SWP refined geological models and used them to enhance the accuracy of simulation models. • The SWP continued quantitative risk assessment of top-ranked risks and strengthened the link between qualitative and quantitative risk methodologies.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2024

Tetrafluoroboric Acid Digestion for Accurate Determination of Rare Earth Elements in Coal and Fly Ash by ICP-MS Analysis

Coal and coal-related fly ash often contain rare earth elements (REEs) that have the potential to be utilized as valuable mineral resources. Accurately determining the REE content in coal and fly ash is crucial for resource evaluation. The conventional approach involves using hydrofluoric acid (HF) to dissolve silicates and release REEs, which, however, prolongs the digestion process due to the additional step of complexing fluoride ions (F−) with boric acid (H3BO3). Determining the correct amount of H3BO3 for neutralization can be challenging, and in some instances, the binding of fluoride ions with certain lanthanides (Lns) hampers the accurate determination of all 14 naturally occurring rare earth elements in a single digestion batch by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS). In this study, we present an alternative method that achieves the accurate determination of all 14 naturally occurring REEs using tetrafluoroboric acid (HBF4) followed by ICP-MS analysis. This approach eliminates the need for an F− complexing step. We tested this method on certified REE reference materials, including NIST 1632e (coal) and NIST 1633c (fly ash), as well as the REE geological reference material USGS AGV-1 (andesite). Our results demonstrated excellent recovery rates (relative standard deviation, RSD < ±10%), with a correlation coefficient (r2) exceeding 0.99. Using this method, we investigated the concentrations of all 14 REEs in coal and fly ash samples collected from various locations in the southwestern USA. This improved digestion technique streamlines the analysis process and enhances the accuracy of REE determination, facilitating a more comprehensive evaluation of REE-rich coal and fly ash deposits for resource exploration.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Coolant Pump Predictive Data Analytics from Signatures Generated by the Recursive Short Time Fast Fourier Transform

Although a nuclear reactor is a hostile environment for sensors and signal transmissions, the reactor core is amenable to acoustic communication. An acoustic measurement infrastructure installed at the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) nozzle trench area records acoustic signals that can capture reactor operating states. The distinct states produce unique signatures that can be identified and tracked using data processing and data analytics. The infrastructure relies on acoustic transmission through ATR in-pile structural components, piping, and coolant that transmit acoustically modified signals generated by the coolant pumps. This paper will discuss results from using the Recursive Short Time Fast Fourier Transform (RSTFFT) technique used to process acoustic signals and provide signatures that are identified and monitored by analytics. The RSTFFT is applied to ATR data to understand the vibration levels and signatures for different operating regimes as displayed by the spectrogram. The combination of coolant pumps for normal and high-power operation generate unique signatures. These acoustic signatures are used to develop machine learning approaches to automatically classify operating regimes. Two machine-learning models, Support Vector Machines and Linear Discriminant Analysis, were developed to classify two event classes. Class 1 is a normal steady-state operation, and Class 2 is any event that is due to start up, shut down, or other actions. Both types of machine learning models had over a 96% prediction accuracy for the two classes. These results lay the foundation for predictive analytic frameworks that can be leveraged by ATR to optimize operations and maintenance.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2023

Real-Time Detection and Localization of Line Trip Event Via Relative Phase Angles

Line trip events widely exist in power systems. They can result in power outages and a huge economic loss if not promptly detected and localized. To provide a fast and precise solution, this paper presents a Complete Coverage of Voltage Measurement (CCVM)-based line trip event detection algorithm and a Relative Phase Angle (RPA)-based line trip event localization algorithm. First, frequency and relative phase angle features during a line trip event are calculated. Then, the CCVM-based algorithm is proposed from both frequency and rate of change of frequency estimation algorithm aspects. Additionally, the RPA-based algorithm is presented, and two cases are studied to demonstrate the uniqueness of the proposed algorithm. Various experiments are conducted, where the simulation results demonstrate that the proposed CCVM-based algorithm can detect a line trip event as short as 2.07 ms. In addition, the RPA-based algorithm has 1.26 times higher localization accuracy compared with the frequency magnitude-based and phase angle-based algorithms. In conclusion, the experiment results on the examples from two interconnected power systems in the U.S. verified the performance of the proposed algorithms in wide-area power systems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

AI and extreme scale computing to learn and infer the physics of higher order gravitational wave modes of quasi-circular, spinning, non-precessing black hole mergers

We use artificial intelligence (AI) to learn and infer the physics of higher order gravitational wave modes of quasi-circular, spinning, non precessing binary black hole mergers. We trained AI models using 14 million waveforms, produced with the surrogate model NRHybSur3dq8, that include modes up to $\ell$ ≤ 4 and (5,5), except for (4,0) and (4,1), that describe binaries with mass-ratios $\textit{q}$ ≤ 8, individual spins $s^z_{\{1,2\}} \in$[–0.8,0.8], and inclination angle $θ \in$ [0,π]. Our probabilistic AI surrogates can accurately constrain the mass-ratio, individual spins, effective spin, and inclination angle of numerical relativity waveforms that describe such signal manifold. We compared the predictions of our AI models with Gaussian process regression, random forest, k-nearest neighbors, and linear regression, and with traditional Bayesian inference methods through the PyCBC Inference toolkit, finding that AI outperforms all these approaches in terms of accuracy, and are between three to four orders of magnitude faster than traditional Bayesian inference methods. Our AI surrogates were trained within 3.4 hours using distributed training on 1,536 NVIDIA V100 GPUs in the Summit supercomputer.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Transferable Hirshfeld atom model for rapid evaluation of aspherical atomic form factors

Form factors based on aspherical models of atomic electron density have brought great improvement in the accuracies of hydrogen atom parameters derived from X-ray crystal structure refinement. Today, two main groups of such models are available, the banks of transferable atomic densities parametrized using the Hansen–Coppens multipole model which allows for rapid evaluation of atomic form factors and Hirshfeld atom refinement (HAR)-related methods which are usually more accurate but also slower. In this work, a model that combines the ideas utilized in the two approaches is tested. It uses atomic electron densities based on Hirshfeld partitions of electron densities, which are precalculated and stored in a databank. This model was also applied during the refinement of the structures of five small molecules. A comparison of the resulting hydrogen atom parameters with those derived from neutron diffraction data indicates that they are more accurate than those obtained with the Hansen–Coppens based databank, and only slightly less accurate than those obtained with a version of HAR that neglects the crystal environment. The advantage of using HAR becomes more noticeable when the effects of the environment are included. To speed up calculations, atomic densities were represented by multipole expansion with spherical harmonics up to l = 7, which used numerical radial functions (a different approach to that applied in the Hansen–Coppens model). Calculations of atomic form factors for the small protein crambin (at 0.73 Å resolution) took only 68 s using 12 CPU cores.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Pulsar Movement Animation and its Corresponding Signal Visualization for Timing Source

The global positioning system, widely used for synchronization in energy systems, faces vulnerabilities, while Pulsars—natural cosmic clocks—offer long-term stability as potential backup timing sources. Existing research lacks sufficient exploration of Pulsar signal animation under astrophysical factors, limiting practical applications. This study establishes a mathematical model based on the rotation dynamics of dual-beam Pulsars and implements dynamic signal visualization through MATLAB. The model dynamically illustrates the relative motion between Pulsar beams and observers via timeline calculations, beam intensity modeling, and rotation matrix derivation. A case study on the millisecond Pulsar J1939+2134 reveals that observer angles influence signal peak timing, while beam widths determine signal duration, highlighting the critical role of parameter calibration for timing accuracy. Open-source code and animation results are publicly shared, providing tools for interdisciplinary research. This study validates the feasibility of Pulsar-based timing in energy systems, offering new insights to enhance synchronization robustness.

Wu, Ori [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000326723410)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Learning the Temporal Effect in Infrared Thermal Videos With Long Short-Term Memory for Quality Prediction in Resistance Spot Welding

With the advances of sensing technology, in-situ infrared thermal videos can be collected from Resistance Spot Welding (RSW) processes. Each video records the formulation process of a weld nugget. The nugget evolution creates a “temporal effect” across the frames, which can be leveraged for real-time, nondestructive evaluation (NDE) of the weld quality. Currently, quality prediction with imaging data mainly focuses on optical feature extraction with Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) but does not make the most of such temporal effect. In this study, pixels corresponding to critical locations on the weld nugget surface are extracted from a video to form multivariate time series (MTS). Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) is used in MTS processing to remove noisy signals related to uninformative frames. A Stacked Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model is developed to learn from the processed MTS and then predicts weld nugget size and thickness in real-time NDE. Results from a case study on RSW of Boron steel demonstrates the improvement in prediction accuracy and computational time with the proposed method, as compared to CNN-based weld quality prediction.

Guo, Shenghan↗
DOE OSTI2021

Advances in secondary ion mass spectrometry for N-doped niobium

Accurate secondary ion mass spectroscopy measurement of nitrogen in niobium relies on the use of closely equivalent standards, made by ion implantation, to convert nitrogen signal intensity to nitrogen content by determination of relative sensitivity factors (RSFs). Accurate RSF values for ppm-range nitrogen contents are increasingly critical, as more precision is sought in processes for next-generation superconducting radiofrequency (SRF) accelerator cavities. Furthermore, factors influencing RSF value measurements were investigated with the aim of reliably attaining better than 10% accuracy in nitrogen concentrations at various depths into the bulk. This has been accomplished for materials typical of SRF cavities at the cost of increased attention to all aspects.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Designing optimal experiments: an application to proton Compton scattering

Interpreting measurements requires a physical theory, but the theory’s accuracy may vary across the experimental domain. To optimize experimental design, and so to ensure that the substantial resources necessary for modern experiments are focused on acquiring the most valuable data, both the theory uncertainty and the expected pattern of experimental errors must be considered. We develop a Bayesian approach to this problem, and apply it to the example of proton Compton scattering. Chiral Effective Field Theory (χEFT) predicts the functional form of the scattering amplitude for this reaction, so that the electromagnetic polarizabilities of the nucleon can be inferred from data. With increasing photon energy, both experimental rates and sensitivities to polarizabilities increase, but the accuracy of χEFT decreases. Our physics-based model of χEFT truncation errors is combined with present knowledge of the polarizabilities and reasonable assumptions about experimental capabilities at HI γ S and MAMI to assess the information gain from measuring specific observables at specific kinematics, i.e. to determine the relative amount by which new data are apt to shrink uncertainties. The strongest gains would likely come from new data on the spin observables Σ 2x and Σ 2x' at ω≃140 to 200 MeV and 40° to 120°. These would tightly constrain γ E1E1 –γ E1M2 . New data on the differential cross section between 100 and 200 MeV and over a wide angle range will substantially improve constraints on α E1 –β M1 , γ π and γ M1M1 –γ M1E2 . Good signals also exist around 160 MeV for Σ 3 and Σ 2z' . As a result, such data will be pivotal in the continuing quest to pin down the scalar polarizabilities and refine understanding of the spin polarizabilities.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗