Towards Improved Real-Time Observability of Behind-Meter PhotoVoltaic Systems: A Data-Driven Approach
The stochasticity in energy supply introduced by increased PV penetration in grid distribution systems can lead to frequent and sudden supply-demand imbalances, thereby causing voltage and frequency fluctuations. Enhanced observability, in real-time, of grid attributes such as real and reactive power flows, power injections/consumption and voltages is becoming increasingly essential to ensure smooth grid operation under these new large-scale PV integration scenarios. Two significant challenges prevent grid operators from achieving this objective: 1) Computational complexity of quasi-static timeseries simulations, and 2) Partial observability of behind-meter grid assets. In this work, we take a step towards this objective by enhancing the observability of smart inverter equipped PV systems located behind AMI meters. Smart inverters convert the DC output of PV systems into real and reactive power, the ratio of which is governed by a power factor setting. This in turn is governed by the real-time voltage at its terminal, as per a pre-set volt/var curve. While it is possible to infer the power factor setting - thereby, real and reactive power injection of the PV system - at each time interval by quasi-static time series simulations, such methods are not scalable to large grid sizes. We propose to reduce the reliance on simulations by developing a deep neural network based data-driven model which predicts the time dependent power factors of the PV systems in the grid. The model uses a small amount of simulated data to learn the dependence of power factor on 1) load and apparent PV power injection (root mean square of real and reactive power) data, and 2) AMI net-load data (for BTM PV assets). Our results show that our model can predict power factors with mean absolute error of less than 6.2% under full observability scenario and under 8.6% under the partial observability scenario. Thus, our data-driven model can reduce the amount of simulations required to compute real and reactive injections from PV systems in the distribution system with or without complete information.