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At least 829 records · Page 46
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1992

Estimating the probability of failure when testing reveals no failures

Formulas for estimating the probability of failure when testing reveals no errors are introduced. These formulas incorporate random testing results, information about the input distribution, and prior assumptions about the probability of failure of the software. The formulas are not restricted to equally likely input distributions, and the probability of failure estimate can be adjusted when assumptions about the input distribution change. The formulas are based on a discrete sample space statistical model of software and include Bayesian prior assumptions. Reusable software and software in life-critical applications are particularly appropriate candidates for this type of analysis.

Miller, Keith W.↗
NASA NTRS1974

Some qualitative remarks on the variation of the probability of error

The qualitative behavior of the probability of misclassifying observations from two normally distributed populations as the classification regions are varied in a prescribed way is described in order to provide a preliminary generalization of the results obtained by Walton for the case of normally distributed observations with varying a priori probabilities.

Walker, H. F.↗
NASA NTRS1973

The asymptotic distribution of maxima in bivariate samples

The joint distribution (as n tends to infinity) of the maxima of a sample of n independent observations of a bivariate random variable (X,Y) is studied. A method is developed for deriving the asymptotic distribution of the maxima, assuming that X and Y possess asymptotic extreme-value distributions and that the probability element dF(x,y) can be expanded in a canonical series. Applied both to the bivariate normal distribution and to the bivariate gamma and compound correlated bivariate Poisson distributions, the method shows that maxima from all these distributions are asymptotically uncorrelated.

Campbell, J. W.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Application of statistical distribution theory to launch-on-time for space construction logistic support

The ability to launch-on-time and to send payloads into space has progressed dramatically since the days of the earliest missile and space programs. Causes for delay during launch, i.e., unplanned 'holds', are attributable to several sources: weather, range activities, vehicle conditions, human performance, etc. Recent developments in space program, particularly the need for highly reliable logistic support of space construction and the subsequent planned operation of space stations, large unmanned space structures, lunar and Mars bases, and the necessity of providing 'guaranteed' commercial launches have placed increased emphasis on understanding and mastering every aspect of launch vehicle operations. The Center of Space Construction has acquired historical launch vehicle data and is applying these data to the analysis of space launch vehicle logistic support of space construction. This analysis will include development of a better understanding of launch-on-time capability and simulation of required support systems for vehicle assembly and launch which are necessary to support national space program construction schedules. In this paper, the author presents actual launch data on unscheduled 'hold' distributions of various launch vehicles. The data have been supplied by industrial associate companies of the Center for Space Construction. The paper seeks to determine suitable probability models which describe these historical data and that can be used for several purposes such as: inputs to broader simulations of launch vehicle logistic space construction support processes and the determination of which launch operations sources cause the majority of the unscheduled 'holds', and hence to suggest changes which might improve launch-on-time. In particular, the paper investigates the ability of a compound distribution probability model to fit actual data, versus alternative models, and recommends the most productive avenues for future statistical work.

Morgenthaler, George W.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Fossil preservation and the stratigraphic ranges of taxa

The incompleteness of the fossil record hinders the inference of evolutionary rates and patterns. Here, we derive relationships among true taxonomic durations, preservation probability, and observed taxonomic ranges. We use these relationships to estimate original distributions of taxonomic durations, preservation probability, and completeness (proportion of taxa preserved), given only the observed ranges. No data on occurrences within the ranges of taxa are required. When preservation is random and the original distribution of durations is exponential, the inference of durations, preservability, and completeness is exact. However, reasonable approximations are possible given non-exponential duration distributions and temporal and taxonomic variation in preservability. Thus, the approaches we describe have great potential in studies of taphonomy, evolutionary rates and patterns, and genealogy. Analyses of Upper Cambrian-Lower Ordovician trilobite species, Paleozoic crinoid genera, Jurassic bivalve species, and Cenozoic mammal species yield the following results: (1) The preservation probability inferred from stratigraphic ranges alone agrees with that inferred from the analysis of stratigraphic gaps when data on the latter are available. (2) Whereas median durations based on simple tabulations of observed ranges are biased by stratigraphic resolution, our estimates of median duration, extinction rate, and completeness are not biased.(3) The shorter geologic ranges of mammalian species relative to those of bivalves cannot be attributed to a difference in preservation potential. However, we cannot rule out the contribution of taxonomic practice to this difference. (4) In the groups studied, completeness (proportion of species [trilobites, bivalves, mammals] or genera [crinoids] preserved) ranges from 60% to 90%. The higher estimates of completeness at smaller geographic scales support previous suggestions that the incompleteness of the fossil record reflects loss of fossiliferous rock more than failure of species to enter the fossil record in the first place.

NASA Program Exobiology↗
NASA NTRS1987

Isotropic probability measures in infinite dimensional spaces: Inverse problems/prior information/stochastic inversion

Let R be the real numbers, R(n) the linear space of all real n-tuples, and R(infinity) the linear space of all infinite real sequences x = (x sub 1, x sub 2,...). Let P sub n :R(infinity) approaches R(n) be the projection operator with P sub n (x) = (x sub 1,...,x sub n). Let p(infinity) be a probability measure on the smallest sigma-ring of subsets of R(infinity) which includes all of the cylinder sets P sub n(-1) (B sub n), where B sub n is an arbitrary Borel subset of R(n). Let p sub n be the marginal distribution of p(infinity) on R(n), so p sub n(B sub n) = p(infinity)(P sub n to the -1(B sub n)) for each B sub n. A measure on R(n) is isotropic if it is invariant under all orthogonal transformations of R(n). All members of the set of all isotropic probability distributions on R(n) are described. The result calls into question both stochastic inversion and Bayesian inference, as currently used in many geophysical inverse problems.

Backus, George↗
NASA NTRS1987

Isotropic probability measures in infinite-dimensional spaces

Let R be the real numbers, R(n) the linear space of all real n-tuples, and R(infinity) the linear space of all infinite real sequences x = (x sub 1, x sub 2,...). Let P sub in :R(infinity) approaches R(n) be the projection operator with P sub n (x) = (x sub 1,...,x sub n). Let p(infinity) be a probability measure on the smallest sigma-ring of subsets of R(infinity) which includes all of the cylinder sets P sub n(-1) (B sub n), where B sub n is an arbitrary Borel subset of R(n). Let p sub n be the marginal distribution of p(infinity) on R(n), so p sub n(B sub n) = p(infinity) (P sub n to the -1 (B sub n)) for each B sub n. A measure on R(n) is isotropic if it is invariant under all orthogonal transformations of R(n). All members of the set of all isotropic probability distributions on R(n) are described. The result calls into question both stochastic inversion and Bayesian inference, as currently used in many geophysical inverse problems.

Backus, George↗
NASA NTRS1995

The underlying magnetic field direction in Ulysses observations of the southern polar heliosphere

Between May 1993 and January 1995, the Ulysses spacecraft has probed the southern polar heliosphere at latitudes greater than 30 deg S, reaching a maximum latitude of 80.2 deg S in September 1994. Using hourly averages of the data obtained by the magnetometer experiment on Ulysses we have studied the underlying direction of the magnetic field threading this region of the heliosphere, away from the influence of the magnetic sector structure which complicates similar analyses in the ecliptic plane. We have constructed histograms of the measured magnetic field direction using the simple Parker spiral model field direction as a reference. We find that throughout this region the meridional angle between the field vector and the Parker model direction has a distribution which is symmetric and has a most probable value consistent with the model. At latitudes below about 60 deg S the azimuthal angle distribution also has a most probable value consistent with the model but this distribution is highly asymmetric with a greater number of observations of field lines less tightly wound than the expected spiral direction. At latitudes greater than 60 deg S the most probable value of the azimuthal angle is found to have become nearly 30 more tightly wound than the expected direction, but due to the asymmetric distribution still with a greater number of observations less tightly wound than expected. We consider possible causes of both the asymmetry in the distributions and the shift in the most probable value at the highest latitudes, one of which may be the presence of large amplitude, long period Alfven waves in the magnetic field originating from the Sun's southern polar coronal hole.

Forsyth, R. J.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Error probabilities in optical PPM receivers with Gaussian mixture densities

A Gaussian mixture density arises when a discrete variable (e.g., a photodetector count variable) is added to a continuous Gaussian variable (e.g., thermal noise). Making use of some properties of photomultiplier Gaussian mixture distributions, some approximate error probability formulas can be derived. These appear as averages of M-ary orthogonal Gaussian error probabilities. The use of a pure Gaussian assumption is considered, and when properly defined, appears as an accurate upper bound to performance.

Gagliardi, R. M.↗
NASA NTRS1935

Large-Scale Boundary-Layer Control Tests on Two Wings in the NACA 20-Foot Wind Tunnel, Special Report

Tests were made in the N.A.C.A. 20-foot wind tunnel on: (1) a wing, of 6.5-foot span, 5.5-foot chord, and 30 percent maximum thickness, fitted with large end plates and (2) a 16-foot span 2.67-foot chord wing of 15 percent maximum thickness to determine the increase in lift obtainable by removing the boundary layer and the power required for the blower. The results of the tests on the stub wing appeared more favorable than previous small-scale tests and indicated that: (1) the suction method was considerably superior to the pressure method, (2) single slots were more effective than multiple slots (where the same pressure was applied to all slots), the slot efficiency increased rapidly for increasing slot widths up to 2 percent of the wing chord and remained practically constant for all larger widths tested, (3) suction pressure and power requirements were quite low (a computation for a light airplane showed that a lift coefficient of 3.0 could be obtained with a suction as low as 2.3 times the dynamic pressure and a power expenditure less than 3 percent of the rated engine power), and (4) the volume of air required to be drawn off was quite high (approximately 0.5 cubic feet per second per unit wing area for an airplane landing at 40 miles per hour with a lift coefficient of 3,0), indicating that considerable duct area must be provided in order to prevent flow losses inside the wing and insure uniform distribution of suction along the span. The results from the tests of the large-span wing were less favorable than those on the stub wing. The reasons for this were, probably: (1) the uneven distribution of suction along the span, (2) the flow losses inside the wing, (3) the small radius of curvature of the leading edge of the wing section, and (4) the low Reynolds Number of these tests, which was about one half that of the stub wing. The results showed a large increase in the maximum lift coefficient with an increase in Reynolds Number in the range of the tests. The results of drag tests showed that the profile drag of the wing was reduced and the L/D ratio was increased throughout the range of lift coefficients corresponding to take-off and climb but that the minimum drag was increased. The slot arrangement that is best for low drag is not the same, however, as that for maximum lift.

Freeman, Hugh B.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Optimal source codes for geometrically distributed integer alphabets

An approach is shown for using the Huffman algorithm indirectly to prove the optimality of a code for an infinite alphabet if an estimate concerning the nature of the code can be made. Attention is given to nonnegative integers with a geometric probability assignment. The particular distribution considered arises in run-length coding and in encoding protocol information in data networks. Questions of redundancy of the optimal code are also investigated.

Gallager, R. G.↗
NASA NTRS1973

The latitudinal distribution of a debris mantle on the Martian surface

A relatively young mantling deposit of debris surrounds both Martian polar regions and extends toward the equator. This mantle apparently has been derived by wind erosion of sedimentary deposits in the polar regions, a process that is probably continuing now. The distribution of the mantle is not correlated with any particular terrain type for it has masked the small crater populations on young and old terrains alike. The paucity of small fresh craters at high latitudes can be directly attributed to the presence of this debris blanket. It is clear that extreme care should be exercised in using the populations of small craters to establish the chronology of the evolution of geologic provinces on Mars.

Soderblom, L. A.↗
NASA NTRS2008

The Integrated Medical Model: Statistical Forecasting of Risks to Crew Health and Mission Success

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) helps capture and use organizational knowledge across the space medicine, training, operations, engineering, and research domains. The IMM uses this domain knowledge in the context of a mission and crew profile to forecast crew health and mission success risks. The IMM is most helpful in comparing the risk of two or more mission profiles, not as a tool for predicting absolute risk. The process of building the IMM adheres to Probability Risk Assessment (PRA) techniques described in NASA Procedural Requirement (NPR) 8705.5, and uses current evidence-based information to establish a defensible position for making decisions that help ensure crew health and mission success. The IMM quantitatively describes the following input parameters: 1) medical conditions and likelihood, 2) mission duration, 3) vehicle environment, 4) crew attributes (e.g. age, sex), 5) crew activities (e.g. EVA's, Lunar excursions), 6) diagnosis and treatment protocols (e.g. medical equipment, consumables pharmaceuticals), and 7) Crew Medical Officer (CMO) training effectiveness. It is worth reiterating that the IMM uses the data sets above as inputs. Many other risk management efforts stop at determining only likelihood. The IMM is unique in that it models not only likelihood, but risk mitigations, as well as subsequent clinical outcomes based on those mitigations. Once the mathematical relationships among the above parameters are established, the IMM uses a Monte Carlo simulation technique (a random sampling of the inputs as described by their statistical distribution) to determine the probable outcomes. Because the IMM is a stochastic model (i.e. the input parameters are represented by various statistical distributions depending on the data type), when the mission is simulated 10-50,000 times with a given set of medical capabilities (risk mitigations), a prediction of the most probable outcomes can be generated. For each mission, the IMM tracks which conditions occurred and decrements the pharmaceuticals and supplies required to diagnose and treat these medical conditions. If supplies are depleted, then the medical condition goes untreated, and crew and mission risk increase. The IMM currently models approximately 30 medical conditions. By the end of FY2008, the IMM will be modeling over 100 medical conditions, approximately 60 of which have been recorded to have occurred during short and long space missions.

Fitts, M. A.↗
NASA NTRS1991

The energetic ion signature of an O-type neutral line in the geomagnetic tail

An energetic ion signature is presented which has the potential for remote sensing of an O-type neutral line embedded in a current sheet. A source plasma with a tailward flowing Kappa distribution yields a strongly non-Kappa distribution after interacting with the neutral line: sharp jumps, or ridges, occur in the velocity space distribution function f(nu-perpendicular, nu-parallel) associated with both increases and decreases in f. The jumps occur when orbits are reversed in the x-direction: a reversal causing initially earthward particles (low probability in the source distribution) to be observed results in a decrease in f, while a reversal causing initially tailward particles to be observed produces an increase in f. The reversals, and hence the jumps, occur at approximately constant values of perpendicular velocity in both the positive nu parallel and negative nu parallel half planes. The results were obtained using single particle simulations in a fixed magnetic field model.

Martin, R. F., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Asteroid families, dynamics and astrometry

The proper elements and family assignments for the 1227 Palomar-Leiden Survey asteroids of high quality were tabulated. In addition to the large table, there are also auxiliary tables of Mars crossers and commensurate objects, histograms of the proper element distributions, and a discussion. Probably the most important part of the discussion describes the Mars crossing boundary, how the closest distances of approach to Mars and Jupiter are calculated, and why the observed population of Mars crossers should bombard that planet episodically rather than uniformly. Analytical work was done to derive velocity distributions of family forming events from proper element distributions subject to assumptions which may be appropriate for cratering events. Software was developed for a microcomputer to permit plotting of the proper elements. Three orthogonal views are generated and stereo pairs can be printed when desired. This program was created for the study of asteroid families. The astrometry task is directed toward measuring and reducing positions on faint comets and the minor planets with less common orbits. The observational material is CCD frames taken with the Palomar 1.5 m telescope. Positions of 10 comets and 16 different asteroids were published on the Minor Planet Circulars.

Williams, J. G.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Forecasting Lightning at Kennedy Space Center/Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Florida

The Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) developed a set of statistical forecast equations that provide a probability of lightning occurrence on Kennedy Space Center (KSC) I Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) for the day during the warm season (May September). The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) forecasters at CCAFS in Florida include a probability of lightning occurrence in their daily 24-hour and weekly planning forecasts, which are briefed at 1100 UTC (0700 EDT). This information is used for general scheduling of operations at CCAFS and KSC. Forecasters at the Spaceflight Meteorology Group also make thunderstorm forecasts for the KSC/CCAFS area during Shuttle flight operations. Much of the current lightning probability forecast at both groups is based on a subjective analysis of model and observational data. The objective tool currently available is the Neumann-Pfeffer Thunderstorm Index (NPTI, Neumann 1971), developed specifically for the KSCICCAFS area over 30 years ago. However, recent studies have shown that 1-day persistence provides a better forecast than the NPTI, indicating that the NPTI needed to be upgraded or replaced. Because they require a tool that provides a reliable estimate of the daily thunderstorm probability forecast, the 45 WS forecasters requested that the AMU develop a new lightning probability forecast tool using recent data and more sophisticated techniques now possible through more computing power than that available over 30 years ago. The equation development incorporated results from two research projects that investigated causes of lightning occurrence near KSCICCAFS and over the Florida peninsula. One proved that logistic regression outperformed the linear regression method used in NPTI, even when the same predictors were used. The other study found relationships between large scale flow regimes and spatial lightning distributions over Florida. Lightning, probabilities based on these flow regimes were used as candidate predictors in the equation development. Fifteen years (1 989-2003) of warm season data were used to develop the forecast equations. The data sources included a local network of cloud-to-ground lightning sensors called the Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Surveillance System (CGLSS), 1200 UTC Florida synoptic soundings, and the 1000 UTC CCAFS sounding. Data from CGLSS were used to determine lightning occurrence for each day. The 1200 UTC soundings were used to calculate the synoptic-scale flow regimes and the 1000 UTC soundings were used to calculate local stability parameters, which were used as candidate predictors of lightning occurrence. Five logistic regression forecast equations were created through careful selection and elimination of the candidate predictors. The resulting equations contain five to six predictors each. Results from four performance tests indicated that the equations showed an increase in skill over several standard forecasting methods, good reliability, an ability to distinguish between non-lightning and lightning days, and good accuracy measures and skill scores. Given the overall good performance the 45 WS requested that the equations be transitioned to operations and added to the current set of tools used to determine the daily lightning probability of occurrence.

Lambert, Winfred↗
NASA NTRS1974

Analytical tools and isolation of TOF events

Analytical tools are presented in two reports. The first is a probability analysis of the orbital distribution of events in relation to dust flux density observed in Pioneer 8 and 9 distributions. A distinction is drawn between asymmetries caused by random fluctuations and systematic variations, by calculating the probability of any particular asymmetry. The second article discusses particle trajectories for a repulsive force field. The force on a particle due to solar radiation pressure is directed along the particle's radius vector, from the sun, and is inversely proportional to its distance from the sun. Equations of motion which describe both solar radiation pressure and gravitational attraction are presented.

Wolf, H.↗