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NASA NTRS1973

Bayesian estimation of life parameters in the Weibull distribution.

Development of a Bayesian analysis of the scale and shape parameters in the Weibull distribution and the corresponding reliability function with respect to the usual life-testing procedures. For the scale parameter theta, Bayesian estimates of theta and reliability are obtained for the uniform, exponential, and inverted gamma prior probability densities. Bhattacharya's results (1967) for the one-parameter exponential life-testing distribution are reduced to a special case of these results. A fully Bayesian analysis of both the scale and shape parameters is developed by assuming independent prior distributions; since in the latter case, analytical tractability is not possible, Bayesian estimates are obtained through a conjunction of Monte Carlo simulation and numerical-integration techniques. In both cases, a computer simulation is carried out, and a comparison is made between the Bayesian and the corresponding minimum-variance unbiased, or maximum likelihood, estimates. As expected, the Bayesian estimates are superior.

Canavos, G. C.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Interstellar scattering of the radio source 2013+370

Results are reported from a six-station 1663-MHz VLBI observation of the radio source 2013+370. The image of this source is dominated by interstellar scattering and is observed to be elliptical, with a major axis (FWHM) of 17 marcsec and an axial ratio of of 0.70. A fit of the observations to a model visibility function yields a value for alpha, the spectral index of the power-law density irregularity spectrum, of alpha=3.79 + or - 0.05. Corrections for the finite angular size of the source would probably produce a downward revision of alpha. The present observations are consistent with the interstellar density spectrum being close to Kolmogoroff for those scales which determine the angular broadening.

Spangler, Steven R.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Equivalence of physically based statistical fracture theories for reliability analysis of ceramics in multiaxial loading

The present comparison of the Batdorf (1974) flaw density and orientation distribution approach with Evans' (1978) elemental strength approach, with a view to identities in fracture criteria and distribution functions, notes that despite their fundamental differences in multiaxial loading fracture probabilities, the two approaches yield identical predictions. Lamon's (1988) assertion to the contrary, in light of different theoretical predictions by the two methods for the case of alumina disks loaded in flexure, is demonstrated to be in error.

Chao, Luen-Yuan↗

NASA NTRS1999

Meteoric Magnesium Ions in the Martian Atmosphere

From a thorough modeling of the altitude profile of meteoritic ionization in the Martian atmosphere we deduce that a persistent layer of magnesium ions should exist around an altitude of 70 km. Based on current estimates of the meteoroid mass flux density, a peak ion density of about 10(exp 4) ions/cm is predicted. Allowing for the uncertainties in all of the model parameters, this value is probably within an order of magnitude of the correct density. Of these parameters, the peak density is most sensitive to the meteoroid mass flux density which directly determines the ablated line density into a source function for Mg. Unlike the terrestrial case, where the metallic ion production is dominated by charge-exchange of the deposited neutral Mg with the ambient ions, Mg+ in the Martian atmosphere is produced predominantly by photoionization. The low ultraviolet absorption of the Martian atmosphere makes Mars an excellent laboratory in which to study meteoric ablation. Resonance lines not seen in the spectra of terrestrial meteors may be visible to a surface observatory in the Martian highlands.

Pesnell, William Dean↗

DOE OSTI2022

A functional global sensitivity measure and efficient reliability sensitivity analysis with respect to statistical parameters

Sensitivity analysis and reliability assessment are two important aspects of structural and system safety. Epistemic uncertainty with respect to probabilistic model of input parameters due to lack of knowledge is present in many scarce-data applications and complicates the characterization of uncertainty in model response. In this article, we present two importance measures to evaluate the impact of distribution parameters on the probability distribution function (PDF) of the output and the failure probability. The epistemic uncertainty associated with the distribution parameters is modeled as random variables. Additionally, a modified extended polynomial chaos expansion (MEPCE) approach is introduced in which aleatory and epistemic random variables are modeled and propagated simultaneously while allowing the separate assessment for any single epistemic variable. A MEPCE-based kernel density estimation (KDE) construction provides a composite map from each epistemic variable to the response PDF. The functional global sensitivity index of the PDF with respect to the distribution parameters is thus derived, as a function of output, which is both more informative and more efficient than standard scalar sensitivity measures. Reliability sensitivity indices can be readily evaluated by integrating the global sensitivity index function over the failure zone. Three illustrative examples are used to demonstrate the proposed methodology.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

A framework for quantifying uncertainty in DFT energy corrections

In this work, we demonstrate a method to quantify uncertainty in corrections to density functional theory (DFT) energies based on empirical results. Such corrections are commonly used to improve the accuracy of computational enthalpies of formation, phase stability predictions, and other energy-derived properties, for example. We incorporate this method into a new DFT energy correction scheme comprising a mixture of oxidation-state and composition-dependent corrections and show that many chemical systems contain unstable polymorphs that may actually be predicted stable when uncertainty is taken into account. We then illustrate how these uncertainties can be used to estimate the probability that a compound is stable on a compositional phase diagram, thus enabling better-informed assessments of compound stability.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Retrieval of the molecular orientation distribution from atom-pair angular distributions

Imaging laser-induced rotational dynamics is an important and active field due to its applications in capturing reactions in the molecular frame and in molecular imaging. Experimental measurement of the molecular orientation distribution, as a function of the Euler angles, has only been demonstrated for special cases when the detectable signal is generated along the molecular symmetry axis. Here we developed the general theory that maps the probability density distribution of the molecular orientation to the atom-pair angular distributions for nonlinear molecules. With the theory, the molecular orientation distribution can be retrieved from the measured atom-pair angular distribution, which we demonstrate experimentally using ultrafast electron diffractive imaging of impulsively aligned trifluoro-iodomethane molecules. Here, the retrieved molecular orientation distribution is in good agreement with direct numerical simulations of the time-dependent Schrodinger equation using the experimental conditions. Unlike the existing retrieval methods, the retrieval method does not require solving Schrodinger equation, works for any alignment method, and is in principle applicable to asymmetric top molecules.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Electronic Structure Theory and Novel Materials

This grant supported research on electronic structure and materials theory, with focus on three main issues: (i) novel techniques to deal with correlation in the electronic ground-state, (ii) topological materials, (iii) the phase diagram of lattice spin models. Regarding (i), we applied to the homogeneous electron liquid an approach that we previously developed in the context of molecular systems. In this scheme the electronic occupation probabilities and the natural spin orbitals are used to construct an approximate two-body density matrix for the electronic ground-state. Regarding (ii) we used standard electronic structure methods based on density functional theory to model topological materials and interpret experimental observations. Finally, regarding (iii) we further developed a numerical approach to compute the renormalized couplings within real space renormalization group theory in the context of lattice spin models. The main findings were the following. (i) We found that with our approximate two-body density matrix, which works well for small molecules, is not sufficiently accurate for condensed phase systems. Missing a systematic way of improving on the adopted approximations, we decided not to pursue this approach. (ii) We performed two studies. In one, we investigated the influence of Te defects on the topological properties of a WTe2 monolayer, finding that while Te vacancies, even in modest concentration, destroy the topological character, Te adatoms do not, consistent with a recent experiment. In another study, we predicted Weyl semimetal character and strong anomalous Hall effect in the Heusler compensated ferrimagnet Ti2MnAl. (iii) We developed a new Monte Carlo method to do real space renormalization group calculations for lattice spin models. We subsequently extended the scheme to deal with lattice spin models in presence of quenched disorder, finding that the approach can distinguish systems with finite and strong disorder. In the finite disorder case, the method allows one to find with good approximation the critical coupling distribution and the critical exponents.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2024

Quadrature Based Neural Network Learning of Stochastic Hamiltonian Systems

Hamiltonian Neural Networks (HNNs) provide structure-preserving learning of Hamiltonian systems. In this paper, we extend HNNs to structure-preserving inversion of stochastic Hamiltonian systems (SHSs) from observational data. We propose the quadrature-based models according to the integral form of the SHSs’ solutions, where we denoise the loss-by-moment calculations of the solutions. The integral pattern of the models transforms the source of the essential learning error from the discrepancy between the modified Hamiltonian and the true Hamiltonian in the classical HNN models into that between the integrals and their quadrature approximations. This transforms the challenging task of deriving the relation between the modified and the true Hamiltonians from the (stochastic) Hamilton–Jacobi PDEs, into the one that only requires invoking results from the numerical quadrature theory. Meanwhile, denoising via moments calculations gives a simpler data fitting method than, e.g., via probability density fitting, which may imply better generalization ability in certain circumstances. Numerical experiments validate the proposed learning strategy on several concrete Hamiltonian systems. The experimental results show that both the learned Hamiltonian function and the predicted solution of our quadrature-based model are more accurate than that of the corrected symplectic HNN method on a harmonic oscillator, and the three-point Gaussian quadrature-based model produces higher accuracy in long-time prediction than the Kramers–Moyal method and the numerics-informed likelihood method on the stochastic Kubo oscillator as well as other two stochastic systems with non-polynomial Hamiltonian functions. Moreover, the Hamiltonian learning error εH arising from the Gaussian quadrature-based model is lower than that from Simpson’s quadrature-based model. These demonstrate the superiority of our approach in learning accuracy and long-time prediction ability compared to certain existing methods and exhibit its potential to improve learning accuracy via applying precise quadrature formulae.

Mathematics↗

NASA NTRS1984

XUV observations of Capella and the local interstellar medium

The present study is concerned with the first observations of Capella in the wavelength region from 170 A to 450 A. The essential feature of the obtained data is related to the absence of a significant signal at 304 A despite a two sigma sensitivity of 0.6 photons per (sq cm sec) at earth. An investigation shows that the expected Capella 304 A flux at lies in the range from 1.4 to 2.7 photons per (sq cm sec). It is concluded that the failure to detect 304 A flux from Capella is probably the result of intervening absorption. The acquired data are useful in setting a lower limit on the total helium column density, N(He), required to absorb the 304 A flux as a function of the temperature of the local interstellar medium.

Bobroff, N.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Reliability assessment of thrust chamber cooling concepts using probabilistic analysis techniques

The reliability of OFHC (Oxygen Free High Conductivity) copper and NARloy-Z thrust chambers is assessed by applying probabilistic structural analysis techniques to incorporate design parameter variability and uncertainty. Thrust chambers specifically evaluated are the cylindrical test fixtures employed in a plug-nozzle configuration at the NASA Lewis Research Center. Direct sampling Monte Carlo simulations based on a simplified life prediction methodology established probability densities of firing cycles to structural failure. Simulated cyclic lives demonstrated modest agreement to experiment. Similarly, regions of high structural failure probability were determined using a limit state approach employing calculated cumulative distribution functions for effective stress response and an assumed material strength distribution. A probability of failure of 0.012 was calculated at the center of the coolant channel hot-gas-side wall for an OFHC milled channel. Structural response was found to be sensitive to the uncertainties in the thrust chamber thermal environment and the material's thermal expansion coefficient.

Rapp, Douglas C.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Reliability assessment of thrust chamber cooling concepts using probabilistic analysis techniques

Rapp, Douglas C.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Current-State Constrained Filter Bank for Wald Testing of Spacecraft Conjunctions

We propose a filter bank consisting of an ordinary current-state extended Kalman filter, and two similar but constrained filters: one is constrained by a null hypothesis that the miss distance between two conjuncting spacecraft is inside their combined hard body radius at the predicted time of closest approach, and one is constrained by an alternative complementary hypothesis. The unconstrained filter is the basis of an initial screening for close approaches of interest. Once the initial screening detects a possibly risky conjunction, the unconstrained filter also governs measurement editing for all three filters, and predicts the time of closest approach. The constrained filters operate only when conjunctions of interest occur. The computed likelihoods of the innovations of the two constrained filters form a ratio for a Wald sequential probability ratio test. The Wald test guides risk mitigation maneuver decisions based on explicit false alarm and missed detection criteria. Since only current-state Kalman filtering is required to compute the innovations for the likelihood ratio, the present approach does not require the mapping of probability density forward to the time of closest approach. Instead, the hard-body constraint manifold is mapped to the filter update time by applying a sigma-point transformation to a projection function. Although many projectors are available, we choose one based on Lambert-style differential correction of the current-state velocity. We have tested our method using a scenario based on the Magnetospheric Multi-Scale mission, scheduled for launch in late 2014. This mission involves formation flight in highly elliptical orbits of four spinning spacecraft equipped with antennas extending 120 meters tip-to-tip. Eccentricities range from 0.82 to 0.91, and close approaches generally occur in the vicinity of perigee, where rapid changes in geometry may occur. Testing the method using two 12,000-case Monte Carlo simulations, we found the method achieved a missed detection rate of 0.1%, and a false alarm rate of 2%.

Carpenter, J. Russell↗

DOE OSTI2024

Impact of baryonic feedback on HSC-Y1 weak lensing non-Gaussian statistics

Baryonic feedback is a major systematic in weak lensing cosmology. Its most studied effect is the suppression of the lensing power spectrum, a second-order statistic, on small scales. Motivated by the growing interest in statistics beyond the second order, we investigate the effect of baryons on lensing non-Gaussian statistics and the resulting biases in the matter clustering amplitude S 8 = σ 8 Ω m / 0.3 . We focus on the Subaru Hyper Suprime-Cam Year 1 (HSC-Y1) data which, with its high source number density, closely resembles those expected from the upcoming Euclid and Rubin Legacy Survey of Space and Time. We study four non-Gaussian statistics of convergence maps—peak counts, minimum counts, the probability distribution function, and the scattering transform coefficients—in addition to the usual power spectrum. We first estimate the biases in S 8 using mock observations built from the IllustrisTNG and BAHAMAS hydrodynamical simulations and theoretical models built from dark-matter-only simulations. We find up to 1 σ bias in S 8 when the smallest scales (2 arcmin) and the highest feedback level are considered. We then analyze the HSC-Y1 data and compare the S 8 obtained for each statistic with different smoothing scales or scale cuts. As we expect that baryons mostly affect the small scales, comparing the results obtained from including and excluding small scales can indicate the level of impact from baryons. With HSC data, we find only minor ( ≤ 0.5 σ ) differences in S 8 for all statistics, even when considering very small scales (2 arcmin). Our results suggest that the effect of baryons is insignificant at the level of HSC-Y1 down to 2 arcmin for all statistics examined here, or it is canceled by other scale-dependent systematics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1973

Investigation of atomic oxygen-surface interactions related to measurements with dual air density explorer satellites

For a number of candidate materials of construction for the dual air density explorer satellites the rate of oxygen atom loss by adsorption, surface reaction, and recombination was determined as a function of surface and temperature. Plain aluminum and anodized aluminum surfaces exhibit a collisional atom loss probability alpha .01 in the temperature range 140 - 360 K, and an initial sticking probability. For SiO coated aluminum in the same temperature range, alpha .001 and So .001. Atom-loss on gold is relatively rapid alpha .01. The So for gold varies between 0.25 and unity in the temperature range 360 - 140 K.

Wood, B. J.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Tearing at the dayside magnetopause

Initial observations of the dayside magnetopause thickness using magnetometers on board ISEE 1 (International Sun-Earth Explorer) and ISEE 2 indicate that this boundary may only be a few ion gyro-radii thick during periods of observed southward interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). Such a thin current layer can destabilize the collisionless tearing mode, a probable first step in the reconnection sequence. The linear growth rate is calculated assuming typical magnetopause parameters and it is found that it is a sensitive function of IMF orientation, magnetopause thickness, and electron number density. It is also shown that the finite size of the dayside magnetopause necessitates the existence of a two-dimensional tearing mode wave vector spectrum, a consequence of the inability of a thermal electron to maintain Landau resonance with the wave for a growth period. Implications regarding reconnection are discussed.

Quest, K. B.↗

NASA NTRS1994

A complete southern sky redshift survey

We discuss a magnitude-limited redshift survey covering a region around the south Galactic pole (SSRS2). The survey includes 3592 galaxies and covers a region of 1.13 sr to a limiting m(sub B(0)) = 15.5, directly comparable to CfA2. Together, CfA2 and SSR2 cover more than a third of the sky. The northern and southern surveys are remarkably similar. Both contain voids with diameters as large as 5000 km/s. The southern survey contains the Southern Wall, similar to the northern Great Wall. The distributions of velocity dispersions for systems extracted from the SSRS2 and CfA2 surveys are also remarkably similar. For the SSRS2, an inhomogeneity-independent technique yields Schechter luminosity function parameters M(sup *) = -19.50 and alpha = -1.20 (H(sub O) = 100 h km/s/Mpc, h = 1 unless otherwise specified). The steep faint-end slope is probably attributable to bluer galaxies. By examining the normalized density fluctuations in the SSRS2 and CfA2 surveys, we suggest that the combined sample is not yet large enough to be 'fair.' There are large fluctuations in shells at 10,000 km/s.

Da Costa, L. Nicolaci↗

DOE OSTI2020

Effective spin-mixing conductance of topological-insulator/ferromagnet and heavy-metal/ferromagnet spin-orbit-coupled interfaces: A first-principles Floquet-nonequilibrium Green function approach

The spin-mixing conductance (SMC) is a key quantity determining efficiency of spin transport across interfaces. Thus, knowledge of its precise value is required for accurate measurement of parameters quantifying numerous effects in spintronics, such as spin-orbit torque, spin Hall magnetoresistance, spin Hall effect, and spin pumping. However, the standard expression for SMC, provided by the scattering theory in terms of the reflection probability amplitudes, is inapplicable when strong spin-orbit coupling (SOC) is present directly at the interface. This is the precisely the case of topological-insulator/ferromagnet and heavy-metal/ferromagnet interfaces of great contemporary interest. We introduce an approach where first-principles Hamiltonian of these interfaces, obtained from noncollinear density functional theory (ncDFT) calculations, is combined with charge-conserving Floquet-nonequilibrium-Green-function formalism to compute directly the pumped spin current $I^{S_z}_L$ into semi-infinite left lead of two-terminal heterostructures Cu/X/Co/Cu or Y/Co/Cu—where X = Bi 2 Se 3 and Y = Pt or W—due to microwave-driven steadily precessing magnetization of the Co layer. This allows us to extract an effective SMC as a prefactor in $I^{S_z}_L$ versus precession cone angle θ dependence, as long as it remains the same, $I^{S_z}$ ∝ sin 2 θ , as in the case where SOC is absent. By comparing calculations where SOC in switched off versus switched on in ncDFT calculations, we find that SOC consistently reduces the pumped spin current and therefore the effective SMC.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗