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At least 829 records · Page 46

Modeling salt adsorption in electrical double layer for capacitive deionization

Abstract This work presents an electrical double layer (EDL) model for capacitive deionization (CDI) by intercorrelating the salt adsorption, the electrode voltage, and the surface charge density. The counterion condensation is considered a crucial contribution to salt adsorption because of the high surface charge density in the charged micropores. The counterions condense when the surface charge density exceeds a critical value, which is predicted by the counterion condensation theory. The EDL model accurately correlates the NaCl salt adsorption and electrode voltage with various surface charge densities and well predicts the salt adsorption in a wide range of external salt concentrations. The EDL model reproduces the non‐monotonic relationship between the salt adsorption and the specific surface area observed in experiments and provides an explanation from the modeling perspective. Exhibiting superior accuracy and predictability for salt adsorption, the EDL model could serve as an enabling tool contributing to the development of CDI processes.

Lin, Yu‐Jeng↗

Demographic composition, not demographic diversity, predicts biomass and turnover across temperate and tropical forests

The growth and survival of individual trees determine the physical structure of a forest with important consequences for forest function. However, given the diversity of tree species and forest biomes, quantifying the multitude of demographic strategies within and across forests and the way that they translate into forest structure and function remains a significant challenge. Here, we quantify the demographic rates of 1961 tree species from temperate and tropical forests and evaluate how demographic diversity (DD) and demographic composition (DC) differ across forests, and how these differences in demography relate to species richness, aboveground biomass (AGB), and carbon residence time. We find wide variation in DD and DC across forest plots, patterns that are not explained by species richness or climate variables alone. There is no evidence that DD has an effect on either AGB or carbon residence time. Rather, the DC of forests, specifically the relative abundance of large statured species, predicted both biomass and carbon residence time. Our results demonstrate the distinct DCs of globally distributed forests, reflecting biogeography, recent history, and current plot conditions. Linking the DC of forests to resilience or vulnerability to climate change, will improve the precision and accuracy of predictions of future forest composition, structure, and function.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

A Method for Assessing the Accuracy of a Photogrammetry System for Precision Deployable Structures

The measurement techniques used to validate analytical models of large deployable structures are an integral Part of the technology development process and must be precise and accurate. Photogrammetry and videogrammetry are viable, accurate, and unobtrusive methods for measuring such large Structures. Photogrammetry uses Software to determine the three-dimensional position of a target using camera images. Videogrammetry is based on the same principle, except a series of timed images are analyzed. This work addresses the accuracy of a digital photogrammetry system used for measurement of large, deployable space structures at JPL. First, photogrammetry tests are performed on a precision space truss test article, and the images are processed using Photomodeler software. The accuracy of the Photomodeler results is determined through, comparison with measurements of the test article taken by an external testing group using the VSTARS photogrammetry system. These two measurements are then compared with Australis photogrammetry software that simulates a measurement test to predict its accuracy. The software is then used to study how particular factors, such as camera resolution and placement, affect the system accuracy to help design the setup for the videogrammetry system that will offer the highest level of accuracy for measurement of deploying structures.

Moore, Ashley↗

On the Accuracy of Probabilistic Bucking Load Prediction

The buckling strength of thin-walled stiffened or unstiffened, metallic or composite shells is of major concern in aeronautical and space applications. The difficulty to predict the behavior of axially compressed thin-walled cylindrical shells continues to worry design engineers as we enter the third millennium. Thanks to extensive research programs in the late sixties and early seventies and the contributions of many eminent scientists, it is known that buckling strength calculations are affected by the uncertainties in the definition of the parameters of the problem such as definition of loads, material properties, geometric variables, edge support conditions, and the accuracy of the engineering models and analysis tools used in the design phase. The NASA design criteria monographs from the late sixties account for these design uncertainties by the use of a lump sum safety factor. This so-called 'empirical knockdown factor gamma' usually results in overly conservative design. Recently new reliability based probabilistic design procedure for buckling critical imperfect shells have been proposed. It essentially consists of a stochastic approach which introduces an improved 'scientific knockdown factor lambda(sub a)', that is not as conservative as the traditional empirical one. In order to incorporate probabilistic methods into a High Fidelity Analysis Approach one must be able to assess the accuracy of the various steps that must be executed to complete a reliability calculation. In the present paper the effect of size of the experimental input sample on the predicted value of the scientific knockdown factor lambda(sub a) calculated by the First-Order, Second-Moment Method is investigated.

Arbocz, Johann↗

Computing x-ray absorption spectra from linear-response particles atop optimized holes

State specific orbital optimized density functional theory (OO-DFT) methods, such as restricted open-shell Kohn–Sham (ROKS), can attain semiquantitative accuracy for predicting x-ray absorption spectra of closed-shell molecules. OO-DFT methods, however, require that each state be individually optimized. In this Communication, we present an approach to generate an approximate core-excited state density for use with the ROKS energy ansatz, which is capable of giving reasonable accuracy without requiring state-specific optimization. Herein, this is achieved by fully optimizing the core-hole through the core-ionized state, followed by the use of electron-addition configuration interaction singles to obtain the particle level. This hybrid approach can be viewed as a DFT generalization of the static-exchange (STEX) method and can attain ~0.6 eV rms error for the K-edges of C–F through the use of local functionals, such as PBE and OLYP. This ROKS(STEX) approach can also be used to identify important transitions for full OO ROKS treatment and can thus help reduce the computational cost of obtaining OO-DFT quality spectra. ROKS(STEX), therefore, appears to be a useful technique for the efficient prediction of x-ray absorption spectra.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Application of ecological, geological and oceanographic ERTS-1 imagery to Delaware's coastal resources management

The author has identified the following significant results. Data from twelve successful ERTS-1 passes over Delaware Bay have been analyzed with special emphasis on coastal vegetation, land use, current circulation, water turbidity and pollution dispersion. Secchi depth, suspended sediment concentration and transmissivity as measured from helicopters and boats were correlated with ERTS-1 image radiance. Multispectral signatures of acid disposal plumes, sediment plumes and slick were investigated. Ten vegetative cover and water discrimination classes were selected for mapping: (1) forest-land; (2) Phragmites communis; (3) Spartina patens and Distichlis spicata; (4) Spartina alterniflora; (5) cropland; (6) plowed cropland; (7) sand and bare sandy soil; (8) bare mud; (9) deep water; and (10) sediment-laden and shallow water. Canonical analysis predicted good classification accuracies for most categories. The actual classification accuracies were very close to the predicted values with 8 of 10 categories classified with greater than 90% accuracy indicating that representative training sets had been selected.

Klemas, V.↗

Prediction of Unsteady Transitional Layers in Turbomachinery Using Navier Stokes Equations

The objective of the research reported in this presentation is to develop computational techniques for the prediction of unsteady transitional flows associated with the rotor stator interaction in turbomachinery. Three low-Reynolds number turbulence models are incorporated in two unsteady Navier-Stokes codes (one is pressure based and the other is time marching with Runge-Kutta time stepping) and evaluated for accuracy in predicting the onset and the end of unsteady transitional patches due to wake passing. The best model is then used for modification and improvement for the leading edge effect. An existing steady Navier-Stokes code was modified to include pseudo-time stepping, which provided acceleration from 5 to 25 times that of the original code. A systematic validation procedure was implemented to assess the effects of the grid, artificial dissipation, physical, and the pseudo-time step for an accurate prediction of transitional flows resulting from the rotor-stator interaction. The ability of the Navier-Stokes code to predict the unsteady transitional flow on a turbomachinery blade is demonstrated. The unsteady pressure and velocity fields are in good agreement with the experimental data and the prediction from the Euler/boundary layer approach. The numerical solver was able to capture all zones (wake induced transitional strip, wake induced turbulent strip, calmed region, etc.) associated with wake induced transition in a compressor cascade. Another significant step is the assessment of k-epsilon turbulence models, including the leading edge modifications. Best results were obtained from the FLB model. The LB model predicted earlier inception of the transition and shorter transition length. Modification of the k-epsilon model was found to be essential for an accurate prediction of the unsteady transitional flow in a compressor cascade. The CH model failed to predict the unsteady transitional flow. Predicted boundary layer was turbulent from the leading edge, even with the modification of the k-epsilon model near the stagnation point. A comparison of the instantaneous shape factor, the skin friction coefficient, and the momentum thickness indicates that the Navier-Stokes predictions are reasonably good. Interaction between the upstream wake and stator wake results in shedding of unsteady vortices from the trailing edge and increased dissipation in the stator wake and, as a consequence, increased rate of decay of the stator wake. The procedure developed at Penn State should aid the designers of turbomachinery in allowing for the unsteady transitional flows due to rotor-stator interaction.

Lakshminarayana, B.↗

Fortified LEWICE with viscous effects

A method for computing the prediction of ice shapes on airfoils and their effects on the airfoil lift and drag coefficients are described. The previously developed LEWICE code has been modified to avoid problems due to multiple stagnation points. The interactive boundary-layer method developed by Cebeci has been incorporated into LEWICE to improve the accuracy of predicting ice shapes as well as to compute the performance characteristics of iced airfoils. The paper also presents ice shapes calculated without and with viscous effects, the consequences for aerodynamic properties, particulary lift and drag, and evaluation of the time steps used in the ice accretion process.

Cebeci, Tuncer↗

Strike-Slip Fault Patterns on Europa: Obliquity or Polar Wander?

Variations in diurnal tidal stress due to Europa's eccentric orbit have been considered as the driver of strike-slip motion along pre-existing faults, but obliquity and physical libration have not been taken into account. The first objective of this work is to examine the effects of obliquity on the predicted global pattern of fault slip directions based on a tidal-tectonic formation model. Our second objective is to test the hypothesis that incorporating obliquity can reconcile theory and observations without requiring polar wander, which was previously invoked to explain the mismatch found between the slip directions of 192 faults on Europa and the global pattern predicted using the eccentricity-only model. We compute predictions for individual, observed faults at their current latitude, longitude, and azimuth with four different tidal models: eccentricity only, eccentricity plus obliquity, eccentricity plus physical libration, and a combination of all three effects. We then determine whether longitude migration, presumably due to non-synchronous rotation, is indicated in observed faults by repeating the comparisons with and without obliquity, this time also allowing longitude translation. We find that a tidal model including an obliquity of 1.2?, along with longitude migration, can predict the slip directions of all observed features in the survey. However, all but four faults can be fit with only 1? of obliquity so the value we find may represent the maximum departure from a lower time-averaged obliquity value. Adding physical libration to the obliquity model improves the accuracy of predictions at the current locations of the faults, but fails to predict the slip directions of six faults and requires additional degrees of freedom. The obliquity model with longitude migration is therefore our preferred model. Although the polar wander interpretation cannot be ruled out from these results alone, the obliquity model accounts for all observations with a value consistent with theoretical expectations and cycloid modeling.

Rhoden, Alyssa Rose↗

Machine Learning based Aircraft Performance Model Estimation for Trajectory Prediction

The accurate prediction of aircraft trajectory by ground-based decision support tools is a critical component of air traffic management in the US National Airspace System (NAS). Accurate predictions of where the aircraft will be in the future or when they will arrive at specific locations (e.g., fixes) is a key enabler for sequencing and efficient arrival management of flights. Traditional physics based aircraft trajectory prediction relies on a simplified point-mass total energy model whose parameters are referred to as Aircraft Performance Model (APM) parameters. Even though the performance coefficients and weight of an aircraft are a vital part of the aircraft performance model’s predictions and accuracy, these coefficients are proprietary in nature and therefore, unavailable to decision-support tools. Current approaches freeze some coefficients to default base of aircraft data (BADA) values and optimize others. However, the APM parameters are highly coupled by the flight dynamics and prioritizing one parameter over others leads to bias and skewed predictions. To alleviate this problem, we provide a combined optimization framework to predict all the critical (thrust, drag and weight) APM parameters. This paper is focused on training Machine Learning (ML) models that map historical flights to optimized APM parameters that provide the best fit (in terms of prediction error). Our dataset obtained from NASA’s Sherlock data warehouse is comprised of thousands of historical flights and includes weather and track data collected from 2019. Using different subsets of relevant features (e.g., aircraft type), we trained several ML models to estimate the aircraft’s take off weight, drag polar coefficients (both parasitic and lift induced), and thrust settings (multiplier applied to the maximum engine thrust). The chosen flights are from three of the most common aircraft types (B738, B737, and A320) arriving at four airports (LAX, DEN, MSP, and DFW). Our ML approach is comprised of two different solutions: 1- using a subset of features that are known prior to the flight departure and do not change during flight (such as engine type, current temperature at departure & destination airports, aircraft type) and 2 - using a subset of temporal features of the flight trajectory (such as cruise altitude, Mach, airspeed, and rate of climb) in addition to the pre-departure features from the first solution. The labels or target variables are the APM parameters that were obtained by an optimized ordinary differential equations (ODE) fitting process (applied to individual flights). The ODE-fitting is very time intensive and is therefore performed offline. Thus, training an ML model to learn the relationship between the flight features and ODE-generated labels enables faster estimation of the APM parameters and is therefore amenable to real-time prediction. Various ML models including linear regression, random forest, XGBoost, and neural network were trained, and the results are compared. After model validation and hyperparameter-tuning, we observed that the Random Forest model outperformed the other three models by the overall mean square error (MSE) of 2% for the first solution and 1.5% for the second solution. Finally, the ML-derived parameters are compared against default BADA APM parameters using NASA’s Autonomy Development toolkit (ADK) simulation software. The simulation results for one of each aircraft type is shown and discussed.

Aida Sharif Rohani↗

Confined turbulent swirling recirculating flow predictions

The capability and the accuracy of the STARPIC computer code in predicting confined turbulent swirling recirculating flows is presented. Inlet flow boundary conditions were demonstrated to be extremely important in simulating a flowfield via numerical calculations. The degree of swirl strength and expansion ratio have strong effects on the characteristics of swirling flow. In a nonswirling flow, a large corner recirculation zone exists in the flowfield with an expansion ratio greater than one. However, as the degree of inlet swirl increases, the size of this zone decreases and a central recirculation zone appears near the inlet. Generally, the size of the central zone increased with swirl strength and expansion ratio. Neither the standard k-epsilon turbulence mode nor its previous extensions show effective capability for predicting confined turbulent swirling recirculating flows. However, either reduced optimum values of three parameters in the mode or the empirical C sub mu formulation obtained via careful analysis of available turbulence measurements, can provide more acceptable accuracy in the prediction of these swirling flows.

Abujelala, M. T.↗

CFD modeling of near-wall combustion and unburned methane prediction in natural gas spark ignition engines

Natural gas-powered engines play a critical role in gas drilling, compression, and transmission sectors, but methane (CH 4 ) from engine combustion slip can be significant over their lifespan, contributing to atmospheric pollution and signaling reduced engine efficiency. Here, to address this challenge, computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations offer valuable insights into the in-cylinder combustion process, enabling the optimization of combustion strategies and engine designs to minimize unburned CH 4 slip. This study aims to evaluate and improve combustion models for simulating the combustion process and predicting unburned CH 4 concentrations in natural gas spark-ignition (SI) engines, including engines that are part of combined reformer-engine systems. Specifically, the performance of two flamelet-based combustion models—the Extended Coherent Flame Model (ECFM) and the G-equation model—was assessed using experimental engine data collected under varying excess-air ratio (λ) conditions and fuel compositions, including natural gas and syngas blends. In addition, to enhance the predictive capabilities of the G-equation model, a flame-wall interaction (FWI) sub-model was integrated into its framework. The effects of its model parameters, such as quenching and influence distance, on combustion behavior and unburned methane predictions were analyzed in detail. The ECFM tended to predict delayed combustion phasing under diluted mixture conditions, resulting in overprediction of unburned CH 4 concentrations. In contrast, the G-equation model provided reasonable predictions of combustion pressure, while representing higher the CH 4 reduction rate across the operating condition compared to experimental data. Incorporating the FWI sub-model—with the quenching distance calculated based on a pressure-dependent relation (P -0.48 ) and a fixed influence distance of 1.5 mm—further improved the G-equation model’s accuracy in predicting CH 4 reduction rates without compromising its ability to simulate the combustion process.

Combustion model↗

Probabilistic Voltage Sensitivity based Preemptive Voltage Monitoring in Unbalanced Distribution Networks

With increasing penetration of renewable energy and active consumers, control and management of power distribution networks has become challenging. Renewable energy sources can cause random voltage fluctuations as their output power depends on weather conditions. Conventional voltage control schemes such as tap changers and capacitor banks lack the foresight required to quickly alleviate voltage violations. Thus, there is an urgent need for effective approaches for predicting and mitigating voltage violations as a result of random fluctuations in power injections. This work proposes a novel voltage monitoring approach based on low-complexity, data-driven probabilistic voltage sensitivity analysis. The usefulness of this work is not only in predicting voltage violations in unbalanced distribution grids, but also in opening up the door for optimal voltage control. Using system data and forecasts, the proposed approach predicts the distribution of system node voltages which is then used to to identify nodes that may violate the nominal operational limits with high probability. The method is tested on the IEEE 37 node distribution system considering integrated distributed solar energy sources. The method is validated against the classic load flow based method and offers over 95% accuracy in predicting voltage violations.

Abujubbeh, Mohammad↗

Analysis of uncertainties in turbine metal temperature predictions

An analysis was conducted to examine the extent to which various factors influence the accuracy of analytically predicting turbine blade metal temperatures and to determine the uncertainties in these predictions for several accuracies of the influence factors. The advanced turbofan engine gas conditions of 1700 K and 40 atmospheres were considered along with those of a highly instrumented high temperature turbine test rig and a low temperature turbine rig that simulated the engine conditions. The analysis showed that the uncertainty in analytically predicting local blade temperature was as much as 98 K, or 7.6 percent of the metal absolute temperature, with current knowledge of the influence factors. The expected reductions in uncertainties in the influence factors with additional knowledge and tests should reduce the uncertainty in predicting blade metal temperature to 28 K, or 2.1 percent of the metal absolute temperature.

Stepka, F. S.↗

Predicted aerodynamic characteristics for HL-20 lifting-body using the aerodynamic preliminary analysis system (APAS)

The aerodynamic characteristics of the HL-20 lifting body configuraiton obtained through the APAS and from wind-tunnel tests have been compared. The APAS is considered to be an easy-to-use, relatively simple tool for quick preliminary estimation of vehicle aerodynamics. The APAS estimates are found to be in good agreement with experimental results to be used for preliminary evaluation of the HL-20. The APAS accuracy in predicting aerodynamics of the HL-20 varied over the Mach range. The speed ranges of best agreement were subsonic and hypersonic, while least agreement was in the Mach range from 1.2 to about 2,5.

Cruz, Christopher I.↗

A Transported Livengood–Wu Integral Model for Knock Prediction in Computational Fluid Dynamics Simulation

This work describes the development of a transported Livengood–Wu (L–W) integral model for computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation to predict autoignition and engine knock tendency. The currently employed L–W integral model considers both single-stage and two-stage ignition processes, thus can be generally applied to different fuels such as paraffin, olefin, aromatics, and alcohol. The model implementation is first validated in simulations of homogeneous charge compression ignition (HCCI) combustion for three different fuels, showing good accuracy in prediction of autoignition timing for fuels with either single-stage or two-stage ignition characteristics. Then, the L–W integral model is coupled with G-equation model to indicate end-gas autoignition and knock tendency in CFD simulations of a direct-injection spark-ignition engine. This modeling approach is about 10 times more efficient than the ones that based on detailed chemistry calculation and pressure oscillation analysis. Two fuels with same Research Octane Number (RON) but different octane sensitivity are studied, namely, Co-Optima alkylate and Co-Optima E30. Feed-forward neural network model in conjunction with multivariable minimization technique is used to generate fuel surrogates with targets of matched RON, octane sensitivity, and ethanol content. The CFD model is validated against experimental data in terms of pressure traces and heat release rate for both fuels under a wide range of operating conditions. The knock tendency—indicated by the fuel energy contained in the autoignited region—of the two fuels at different load conditions correlates well with the experimental results and the fuel octane sensitivity, implying the current knock modeling approach can capture the octane sensitivity effect and can be applied to further investigation on composition of octane sensitivity.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Uncertainties in Predicting Rice Yield by Current Crop Models Under a Wide Range of Climatic Conditions

Predicting rice (Oryza sativa) productivity under future climates is important for global food security. Ecophysiological crop models in combination with climate model outputs are commonly used in yield prediction, but uncertainties associated with crop models remain largely unquantified. We evaluated 13 rice models against multi-year experimental yield data at four sites with diverse climatic conditions in Asia and examined whether different modeling approaches on major physiological processes attribute to the uncertainties of prediction to field measured yields and to the uncertainties of sensitivity to changes in temperature and CO2 concentration [CO2]. We also examined whether a use of an ensemble of crop models can reduce the uncertainties. Individual models did not consistently reproduce both experimental and regional yields well, and uncertainty was larger at the warmest and coolest sites. The variation in yield projections was larger among crop models than variation resulting from 16 global climate model-based scenarios. However, the mean of predictions of all crop models reproduced experimental data, with an uncertainty of less than 10 percent of measured yields. Using an ensemble of eight models calibrated only for phenology or five models calibrated in detail resulted in the uncertainty equivalent to that of the measured yield in well-controlled agronomic field experiments. Sensitivity analysis indicates the necessity to improve the accuracy in predicting both biomass and harvest index in response to increasing [CO2] and temperature.

crop-model ensembles↗

A transported Livengood-Wu integral model for knock prediction in CFD simulation

This work describes the development of a transported Livengood-Wu (L-W) integral model for computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation to predict auto-ignition and engine knock tendency. The currently employed L-W integral model considers both single-stage and two-stage ignition processes, thus can be generally applied to different fuels such as paraffin, olefin, aromatics and alcohol. The model implementation is first validated in simulations of homogeneous charge compression ignition combustion for three different fuels, showing good accuracy in prediction of auto-ignition timing for fuels with either single-stage or two-stage ignition characteristics. Then, the L-W integral model is coupled with G-equation model to indicate end-gas auto-ignition and knock tendency in CFD simulations of a direct injection spark ignition engine. This modeling approach is about 10 times more efficient than the ones that based on detailed chemistry calculation and pressure oscillation analysis. Two fuels with same Research Octane Number (RON) but different octane sensitivity are studied, namely Co-Optima Alkylate and Co-Optima E30. Feed-forward neural network model in conjunction with multi-variable minimization technique is used to generate fuel surrogates with targets of matched RON, octane sensitivity and ethanol content. The CFD model is validated against experimental data in terms of pressure traces and heat release rate for both fuels under a wide range of operating conditions. The knock tendency indicated by the fuel energy contained in the auto-ignited region of the two fuels at different load conditions correlates well with the experimental results and the fuel octane sensitivity, implying the current knock modeling approach can capture the octane sensitivity effect and can be applied to further investigation on composition of octane sensitivity.

Yue, Zongyu↗