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Winter Storm Elliott: Energy Emergency Alert Lessons Learned

Power blackouts in the United States in 2022 highlighted the need for better communication and planning among power grid stakeholders. This need was further demonstrated at a 2021 workshop held by the Grid Reliability Initiative Utilizing Data Standardization (GRIDS) Project. The GRIDS Project was established to understand and address the gaps in communication between the transmission and distribution operators. With the ongoing energy transition including electrification, distributed energy resource penetration, and so on, this project aims for improved energy emergency communications at the transmission-distribution interface. In 2022, Winter Storm Elliott affected 60% of the United States population (Weather Underground 2022), resulting in rolling blackouts in many areas of the eastern United States (Knoxville Utilities Board [KUB] 2023). Information presented here is based on the GRIDS workshop findings and subsequent research and interviews with stakeholders. After a brief summary of the effects of Winter Storm Elliott, this report covers the standard energy emergency communications processes currently in use, how the storm affected power management operations for the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) and its local utility companies, and related experiences in other states. The report concludes with lessons learned and recommendations for improvements and a path forward.

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A Cost-Effective Wave Energy Harvesting System with Maximum Power Point Tracking Capability

In this paper, we propose a low-cost bidirectional four-switch inverter that transfers three-phase energy between a permanent magnet synchronous generator (PMSG) driven by a wave energy collector and the power grid or a local ac load. To achieve high control performance, the machine-side inverter uses a high-gain observer for rotor position estimation and a Lyapunov-based approach for torque control. For the gridside inverter control, we estimate the filter capacitor voltage with a model reference adaptive system and control the dc-link voltage with a Lyapunov-based energy function. We also track the maximum power point from the sea waves with an integral control law that actively matches the generator impedance with that of the wave collection device. The proposed system supports both grid-following/forming modes. We validate our control design with simulation results on a 3-kW hardware setup.

wave energy, power systems integration, control de↗

Marginal Soils Index Analysis & Geospatial Data

This data package contains output files associated with the Mongird et al. paper entitled "Can US power grid expansion avoid prime agricultural lands?" and is organized into four dataset directories. Each dataset is described in more detail below. 1. Marginal Soils Index Analysis Description: This folder contains a csv file with land needs and availability by state, power generating technology type, and scenario in 2050 when suitable siting areas are additionally constrained to areas with increasing levels of soil marginality. Files: msi_constrained_siting_availability_2050.csv Variables: Scenario - Projected 2050 scenario name State - US state abbreviation Technology - Generating technology type solar = solar photovoltaic gas_cc_re = natural gas combined cycle (recirculating cooling) wind = onshore wind gas_cc_ccs_re = natural gas combined cycle with carbon capture sequestration (recirculating cooling) gas_cc_dry = natural gas combined cycle with (dry cooling) gas_cc_pond = natural gas combined cycle with (pond cooling) coal_conv_ccs_re = conventional coal with carbon capture sequestration (recirculating cooling) Req_Capacity_MW - The amount of rated capacity required in 2050 of the given technology type in the given state and under the given scenario from the capacity expansion plan Req_Capacity_Factor - The assumed capacity factor (fraction between 0 and 1) for the given technology type in the given state and under the given scenario by the capacity expansion plan Req_Land_km2 - The amount of land required (in km-squared) to host the required generating capacity that is capable of meeting the specified capacity factor for the given technology type in the given state and under the given scenario Req_Energy_TWh - Product of Req_Capacity_MW, Req_Capacity_Factor, and 8760/1e6 for the given technology type in the given state and under the given scenario MSI_Case - The level of MSI that siting the given technology is additionally constrained to, where >0 means siting is additionally constrained to suitable land areas that have an MSI value greater than 0 >=1 means siting is additionally constrained to suitable land areas that have an MSI value greater than or equal to 1 >=2 means siting is additionally constrained to suitable land areas that have an MSI value greater than or equal to 2 >=3 means siting is additionally constrained to suitable land areas that have an MSI value greater than or equal to 3 Soil Attribute Rasters Description: This folder contains geospatial raster files for individual soil parameters upscaled to the listed grid resolution (30m or 1 km). 1 km resolution files are a spatial average of non-missing 30m resolution values. All raster files use the USA Contiguous Albers Equal Area Conic (ESRI:102003) projection. Files: avg_cond_raster_ .tif - Average conductivity of the saturation extract across all soil horizons within a depth of 40 inches, measured in mmhos/cm max_cond_raster_ .tif - Maximum conductivity of the saturation extract across all soil horizons within a depth of 40 inches, measured in mmhos/cm min_ph_raster_ .tif- Min pH values across all soil horizons within a depth of 40 inches. avg_ph_raster_ .tif - Average pH value across all soil horizons within a depth of 40 inches. max_ph_raster_ .tif- Max pH value across all soil horizons within a depth of 40 inches. erosion_factor_raster_ .tif - Product of k-factor and percent slope flood_freq_raster_ .tif - Number of months of the year during which the area is commonly, frequently, or very frequently flooded. max_sar_raster_ .tif - Maximum sodium adsorption ratio across all horizons within a depth of 40 inches rock_frac_raster_ .tif - Fraction of the upper 6 inches of soil composed of rock fragments larger than 3 inches. temp_regime_raster_ .tif - Soil temperature regime with the following key: 0 = pergelic 1 = gelic 2 = cryic 3 = frigid 4 = isofrigid 5 = mesic 6 = isomesic 7 = thermic 8 = isothermic 9 = hyperthermic 10 =isohyperthermic Marginal Soils Index Rasters Description: This folder contains geospatial raster files of the Marginal Soils Index at the listed grid resolution (30m or 1 km). 1 km resolution files are a spatial average of 30m resolution. Both raster files use the USA Contiguous Albers Equal Area Conic (ESRI:102003) projection. A value of 0 indicates that there were no soil attributes present that indicate marginal soil. NA values indicate that data was unavailable or bodies of water. Files: marginal_soils_index_30m_raster.tif marginal_soils_index_1km_raster.tif Marginal Soils Index Resource Potential Rasters Description: This folder contains geospatial raster files of the Marginal Soils Index + Resource Potential (MSIxRP) score at 1km resolution for geothermal, solar, and wind technologies. Raster files use the USA Contiguous Albers Equal Area Conic (ESRI:102003) projection. NA values indicate that the location is not suitable for siting the given technology due to policy, environmental, socioeconomic, topological, and other constraints regardless of soil marginality level. Areas with values greater than or equal to zero represent the product of the normalized MSI value and the normalized resource potential value. Files: geothermal_msi_rp_score_raster.tif solar_msi_rp_score_raster.tif wind_msi_rp_score_raster.tif Acknowledgment IM3 is a multi-institutional effort led by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and supported by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Science as part of research in MultiSector Dynamics, Earth and Environmental Systems Modeling Program. Disclaimer This material was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States Government. Neither the United States Government nor the United States Department of Energy, nor the Contractor, nor any or their employees, nor any jurisdiction or organization that has cooperated in the development of these materials, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness or any information, apparatus, product, software, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States Government or any agency thereof, or Battelle Memorial Institute. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States Government or any agency thereof. PACIFIC NORTHWEST NATIONAL LABORATORYoperated byBATTELLEfor theUNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ENERGYunder Contract DE-AC05-76RL01830

Agriculture↗

A Regime-Switching Spatio-Temporal GARCH Method for Short-Term Wind Forecasting

The growth of wind energy poses challenges to the integration of wind energy into the power grid. Within a wind farm, the conditions of local wind exhibit sizeable variations in very short term period and temporal wind speed patterns vary from turbine to turbine. Hence, short-term wind forecasting has been adopted to assist power system operations. In this work, we propose a wind plant-level short term wind speed and power forecasting methodology considering turbine contributions. The proposed model utilizes spatio-temporal dependencies and nonstationarity to accommodate the characteristics of wind farm data by using a novel regime-switching spatiotemporal generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (RS-stGARCH) model. Case studies based on 2 years of data from a wind farm shows that the proposed RS-stGARCH method outperforms benchmark models by up to 21.10% for wind speed forecasting and up to 58.62% for the wind power forecasting.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Decarbonization and technology cost drivers: considerations for potential future thermoelectric water use in the power sector

The power sector is currently undergoing significant changes, driven by a combination of factors, including decarbonization and technology innovation. This study aims to assess implications of these drivers on U.S. power sector technology futures and the associated water and environmental implications for cooling thermoelectric power plants. Specifically, we evaluate four decarbonization scenarios for the contiguous United States that vary in assumptions concerning demand growth and technology costs, with technology costs driving alternative outcomes that prioritize either technologies that require low amounts of water (such as wind, solar, and battery) or high amounts of water (such as nuclear and carbon capture and storage). These scenarios are executed in a power sector capacity expansion model and compared to two reference scenarios that assume status quo with policy and cost drivers. Our analysis indicates that future U.S. thermoelectric water withdrawals could decrease by 25%–60%, but water consumption could more than triple in some scenarios. These changes are driven by a combination of retirement of some power facilities, shifts in cooling technologies, and new technology deployment. The water use patterns vary across the United States, with the eastern regions demonstrating a lot more variability in water consumption across scenarios than western regions. However, local concerns can influence these possible investments, since increased water consumption can exacerbate water scarcity, leading to conflicts among competing users and affecting regional social, environmental, and economic dynamics. Future work should consider possible costs associated with alternate water sources, as well as improve the representation of water constraints within simulations. Inclusion of extreme events and alternate modeling platforms (e.g. production cost modeling and resource adequacy) may also be warranted to further stress test the robustness of these possible technology futures. Such assessments will be critical for ensuring decarbonization and other infrastructure-oriented investments lead to a reliable and resilient power grid.

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The Value of Increased HVDC Capacity Between Eastern and Western U.S. Grids: The Interconnections Seam Study

The Interconnections Seam Study examines the potential economic value of increasing electricity transfer between the Eastern and Western Interconnections using high-voltage direct-current (HVDC) transmission and cost-optimizing both generation and transmission resources across the United States, proposing, assessing, justifying, and illustrating a major infrastructure change involving two of the worlds largest power grids. The study conducted a multi-model analysis that used co-optimized generation and transmission expansion planning and production cost modeling. Four transmission designs under eight scenarios were developed and studied to estimate costs and potential benefits. The results show benefit-to-cost ratios that reach as high as 2.5, indicating significant value to increasing the transmission capacity between the interconnections under the cases considered, realized through sharing generation resources and flexibility across regions.

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Controlling Air Conditioners for Frequency Regulation: A Real-World Example

Even though thermostatically controlled loads like air conditioners present a great potential for providing ancillary services to the electric power grid, the practical challenges associated with their real-time coordination have not received the necessary attention. In this work, we present a nondisruptive load control application, specifically, we demonstrate how real residential air conditioners can provide frequency regulation. Aggregate power adjustment is achieved by modifying the ON/OFF modes of the air conditioners. To account for both single and multi-zone houses, we extend the currently available techniques and develop an approach that can be used for controlling aggregations that include both types of houses. A discussion of the practical challenges encountered in our field experiments is provided, along with the hardware and software approaches we developed to circumvent them. Here, we argue that limitations of current thermostat APIs introduce significant challenges and are an impediment to widespread adoption of fast load control applications.

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Grid Event Signature Library Analytics Report: Signature Matching Tool Development Efforts

This report describes the purpose and features of the Signature Matching Tool (SMT), employed in the Department of Energy (DOE) Grid Event Signature Library (GESL). The SMT supports a user of GESL to identify snippets of electric signatures, usually from sensor devices measuring electric characteristics such as phase voltages and currents, frequency, etc., suspected to represent certain events in the power grid but are not known to the user. The SMT uses a classification method to identify an event of the unknown signature, using the repository of known and labeled signatures in the GESL. The classifier applies a local binary classifier per node (LCN) approach to the unique event tag taxonomy used in the GESL, where training phases are separated based on the Primary labels in the taxonomy, sensor type, and voltage level. Results show that this method helps with computing time during training, in comparison to a flat, multinomial classifier, and produces acceptable average accuracy of 83% across all Primary labels. The report concludes with planned future work including integration to the web interface and API.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Convex Relaxations of Maximal Load Delivery for Multi-Contingency Analysis of Joint Electric Power and Natural Gas Transmission Networks

Recent increases in gas-fired power generation have engendered increased interdependencies between natural gas and power transmission systems. These interdependencies have amplified existing vulnerabilities in gas and power grids, where disruptions can require the curtailment of load in one or both systems. Although typically operated independently, coordination of these systems during severe disruptions can allow for targeted delivery to lifeline services, including gas delivery for residential heating and power delivery for critical facilities. To address the challenge of estimating maximum joint network capacities under such disruptions, we consider the task of determining feasible steady-state operating points for severely damaged systems while ensuring the maximal delivery of gas and power loads simultaneously, represented mathematically as the nonconvex joint Maximal Load Delivery (MLD) problem. To increase its tractability, we present a mixed-integer convex relaxation of the MLD problem. Then, to demonstrate the relaxation’s effectiveness in determining bounds on network capacities, exact and relaxed MLD formulations are compared across various multi-contingency scenarios on nine joint networks ranging in size from 25 to 1191 nodes. The relaxation-based methodology is observed to accurately and efficiently estimate the impacts of severe joint network disruptions, often converging to the relaxed MLD problem’s globally optimal solution within ten seconds.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Anomaly Detection in Power System State Estimation: Review and New Directions

Foundational and state-of-the-art anomaly-detection methods through power system state estimation are reviewed. Traditional components for bad data detection, such as chi-square testing, residual-based methods, and hypothesis testing, are discussed to explain the motivations for recent anomaly-detection methods given the increasing complexity of power grids, energy management systems, and cyber-threats. In particular, state estimation anomaly detection based on data-driven quickest-change detection and artificial intelligence are discussed, and directions for research are suggested with particular emphasis on considerations of the future smart grid.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Machine Learning Solutions for a Stable Grid Recovery

Grid operating security studies are typically employed to establish operating boundaries, ensuring secure and stable operation for a range of operation under NERC guidelines. However, if these boundaries are severely violated, existing system security margins will be largely unknown, as would be a secure incremental dispatch path to higher security margins while continuing to serve load. As an alternative to the use of complex optimizations over dynamic conditions, this work employs the use of machine learning to identify a sequence of secure state transitions which place the grid in a higher degree of operating security with greater static and dynamic stability margins. Several reinforcement learning solution methods were developed using deep learning neural networks, including Deep Q-learning, Mu-Zero, and the continuous algorithms Proximal Reinforcement Learning, and Advantage Actor Critic Learning. The work is demonstrated on a power grid with three control dimensions but can be scaled in size and dimensionality, which is the subject of ongoing research.

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Enabling a Flexible Grid with Increased Penetration of DER: Techno-economic Analysis of Metal Hydride Thermochemical Energy Storage Integrated with Stirling Engine for Grid Energy Storage Applications

This report summarizes the results of a techno-economic assessment of the capital and operational expenses for 3 scenarios utilizing a TES/Stirling engine system which is charged by an electric heater to provide grid power and energy storage. While there are several integration possibilities and material choices that could be utilized in such systems, three difference scenarios were chosen for this assessment to reflect an anticipated deployment of the technology where each might require different TES system configurations. Additionally, an enhanced version of the HTMH is considered to demonstrate the expected impact on costs with further technology development. The predicted capital and operational LCOS for the system configurations range from $0.0198/kWhr e - $0.0734/kWhr e which compare positively to the LCOS for lithium ion battery storage ranging from $0.087/kWhr e – $0.329/kWhr e . The key drivers for cost improvements to the system are material property enhancements in the HTMH primarily related to reducing the costs associated with the HTMH vessel and heat exchangers. This analysis demonstrates the potential benefits and flexibility of integrating a Stirling engine with a metal hydride-based TES system and suggests that the MH TES technology, at its current level of development, provides a highly competitive alternative to lithium ion batteries for large scale grid energy storage applications.

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Anomaly Detection and Mitigation in FACTS-based Wide-Area Voltage Control Systems using Machine Learning

With the increasing deployment of Flexible AC Transmission System (FACTS) devices in wide-area voltage control systems (WAVCS) for achieving improved voltage stability of bulk power systems, the possibility for cyber attacks on these systems is also increasing. Successful stealthy cyber attacks that are difficult to detect by traditional informational technology (IT)-based cybersecurity solutions or threshold-based bad data detectors can lead to a voltage collapse in power grid. This paper presents the testbed-based attacks implementation and real-time evaluation of machine learning (ML) algorithm for detecting and mitigating stealthy cyber attacks on FACTS-based WAVCS on a hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) testbed. Initially, we discuss the implementation of a fuzzy logic controller (FLC) that controls a Static VAR Compensator (SVC) device deployed in a two-area four-machine Kundur power system for improving transient voltage stability. Later, the ML-based Anomaly Detection and Mitigation (ADM) system is implemented on the cyber-physical HIL testbed to detect and mitigate various stealthy cyber attacks, which are injected in real-time over the wide-area network (WAN). The experimental results show accurate and effective performance of ADM system in detecting and mitigating anomalies while keeping the grid stable and within the system operating limits, as defined by the North America Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC).

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Electro-mechanical Modeling of Wind Turbine and Energy Storage Systems with Enhanced Inertial Response

In this paper, a coordinated control scheme for wind turbine generator (WTG) and supercapacitor energy storage system (ESS) is proposed for temporary frequency supports. Inertial control is designed by using generator torque limit considering the security of WTG system, while ESS releases its energy to compensate the sudden active power deficit during the recovery process of turbine rotor. WTG is modeled using the fatigue, aerodynamic, structure, turbulence (FAST) code, which identifies the mechanical loadings of the turbine and addresses electro-mechanical interactions in the wind energy system. A damping controller is augmented to the inertial control to suppress severe mechanical oscillations in the shaft and tower of the turbine during frequency supports. Furthermore, the result of small-signal stability analysis shows that the WTG-ESS tends to improve the stability of the whole multi-energy power grid. The major contributions of this paper will be validated by utilizing the proposed control method that combines the grid support capability and maintaining the integrity of structural design of the turbine for normal operations.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Evaluating performance of different generative adversarial networks for large-scale building power demand prediction

We report as an unsupervised-learning data-driven model, Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) have recently attracted a lot of attention for various applications. There is potential to apply GANs for large-scale building power demand prediction, which is needed for power grid operation. However, there are many GAN variations and it is unclear which GAN is suitable for this application. To answer this question, this paper identifies five promising GANs (Original GAN, cGAN, SGAN, InfoGAN, and ACGAN) and evaluates their performance for predicting building power demand at a large scale. Physics-based building energy models are developed to generate training and reference data. A new evaluation indicator that combines accuracy and reproducibility is proposed to evaluate the performance of different GANs in predicting building power demand. The results show that SGAN and InfoGAN are not suitable because they cannot control the number of generated building samples for different building types. The prediction performance among the Original GAN, cGAN, and ACGAN can vary depending on training sample sizes and number of building types. If the training sample size is sufficiently large, Original GAN and cGAN can predict building power demand more accurately than ACGAN with the same number of samples. If training samples are limited, Original GAN provides better accuracy than cGAN and ACGAN. When the number of building types increase, the prediction accuracy increases for cGAN, decreases for ACGAN, and remains the same for Original GAN. As a result, cGAN and Original GAN are recommended for large-scale building power demand prediction.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Efficient Reformulation and Optimization for SC-ACOPF with Line Switching

This project aims to develop efficient and robust computational methods for solving the security-constrained alternating current optimal power flow problem (SC-ACOPF). The SC-ACOPF problem is a central problem in operating the electric power grids in the United States. It determines the most economically efficient way to operate the generation and transmission system to meet daily electricity demand. The solution found by solving an SC-ACOPF problem must satisfy the physics of the alternating current (AC) power flows, various generator and network operational constraints, and must maintain secure operation under various contingency scenarios, where a generator, a transmission branch, or a transformer may unexpectedly trip offline.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Control approach for power modulation of end-use loads

Methods, apparatus, and systems are disclosed herein for power modulation control of power grids using end-use loads. At the beginning of a coordination period typically lasting a few minutes, a population of end-use loads (water heaters, air conditioners, plug-in electric vehicles, etc.) is interrogated for their willingness to participate in power modulation by undergoing state transitions from on to off, or off to on. Distribution system flexibilities are calculated from the sums of device powers within distribution systems. Area flexibilities are calculated from the sums of device powers within areas. Thresholds for various devices to change state in response to inter-area oscillation damping or frequency regulation are derived from these flexibilities. Two power functions are monitored in real-time and compared with the device thresholds to trigger state changes which then remain locked throughout the remainder of the coordination period, then the devices are released from the lockout state.

Lian, Jianming↗

Energy Resilient Recovery in Puerto Rico: Hurricane Maria Recovery Support

This report covers microgrids as a special application of distributed energy resources (DERs) in Puerto Rico. This is one of a series of reports describing the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) multi-laboratory efforts undertaken. To ensure the sustainable, long-term recovery of Puerto Rico's electric power grid from hurricanes Maria and Irma and to build capacity to manage future potential natural disasters in the most secure and resilient way, DOE convened experts from multiple national laboratories to develop a comprehensive set of data, models, analytic tools, and studies, considering inputs from a wide variety of stakeholder groups, to support technically sound recommendations for Puerto Rico's energy investment decisions. In Phase 1 of the multi-laboratory effort to support Puerto Rico's recovery, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) provided the utility company Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority (PREPA) recommendations for a new framework of interconnection standards to accelerate the integration of utility-scale, transmission-connected, renewable electrical generation and energy storage that ensure cross-technology compatibility and enable high deployment levels without compromising grid reliability, safety, or security (https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy19osti/73848.pdf). In Phase 2, NREL published a report focused on the interconnection of distributed energy resources (DERs) to the electric distribution system in Puerto Rico (https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy21osti/77127.pdf). This report familiarized the reader with Puerto Rico's distribution infrastructure and operational practices and procedures that are relevant to DER interconnection. The report also provided considerations for streamlining the interconnection process given the expected increase in deployments resulting from Puerto Rico's renewable portfolio standard goal of 100% renewables by 2050. Accordingly, the report identifies considerations and concerns associated with the increase in intermittent generation, strategies for DER interconnection best practices, and the potential use of the latest technological solutions identified in the latest revision of the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers 1547-2018 interconnection standard. Additionally, the report identified ways to improve the physical resiliency of installed DERs. This task describes how distributed energy systems may participate in and contribute to improving the resiliency of Puerto Rico's energy infrastructure in the future. This report presents an analysis of the Puerto Rico grid to illustrate the possible different microgrid and minigrid scenarios. The capability to form sustained microgrids and minigrids has the potential to provide a high level of resiliency during disturbances on the grid. DERs, on the other hand, have the capability to aid in the microgrid operation by providing grid support as well as grid-forming functionality. Other tasks in Phase 3 include voltage regulation in distribution networks using DERs and transmission-and-distribution co-simulation.

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