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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Photometry and astrometry with JWST – III. A NIRCam-Gaia DR3 analysis of the open cluster NGC 2506

ABSTRACT In the third paper of this series aimed at developing the tools for analysing resolved stellar populations using the cameras on board of the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), we present a detailed multiband study of the 2 Gyr Galactic open cluster NGC 2506. We employ public calibration data sets collected in multiple filters to: (i) derive improved effective Point Spread Functions (ePSFs) for 10 NIRCam filters; (ii) extract high-precision photometry and astrometry for stars in the cluster, approaching the main sequence (MS) lower mass of ∼0.1 M⊙; and (iii) take advantage of the synergy between JWST and Gaia DR3 to perform a comprehensive analysis of the cluster’s global and local properties. We derived a MS binary fraction of ∼57.5 per cent, extending the Gaia limit (∼0.8 M⊙) to lower masses (∼0.4 M⊙) with JWST. We conducted a study on the mass functions (MFs) of NGC 2506, mapping the mass segregation with Gaia data, and extending MFs to lower masses with the JWST field. We also combined information on the derived MFs to infer an estimate of the cluster present-day total mass. Lastly, we investigated the presence of white dwarfs (WDs) and identified a strong candidate. However, to firmly establish its cluster membership, as well as that of four other WD candidates and of the majority of faint low-mass MS stars, further JWST equally deep observations will be required. We make publicly available catalogues, atlases, and the improved ePSFs.

Nardiello, D. (ORCID:0000000311493659)↗
DOE OSTI2020

Binary Stars in Upper Scorpius

To address the statistics of binary stars in the 8 Myr old Upper Scorpius (USco) star formation region, we conducted a speckle interferometric survey of 614 association members more massive than 0.4 M{sub ⊙} (spectral types earlier than M3V) based on the list of Luhman et al. (2018). We resolved 187 pairs, 55 of which are new discoveries. Also using the published data and the Gaia DR2, a catalog of 250 physical binaries was produced. We carefully estimated detection limits for each target and studied binary statistics in the separation range from 0.″06 to 20″ (9–2800 au), as well as clustering at larger separations. The frequency of companions with mass ratios q > 0.3 in this separation range is 0.33 ± 0.04 and 0.35 ± 0.04 for early M- and solar-type stars, respectively, larger by 1.62 ± 0.22 and 1.39 ± 0.18 times compared to field stars of similar masses. The excess is produced mostly by pairs closer than 100 au. At separations from 100 to 10{sup 4} au, the separation distribution and companion fraction resemble those of solar-type stars in the field. However, unlike in the field, we see a relative deficit of equal-mass binaries at separations of ∼500 au, compared to smaller and larger separations. The distribution of q depends on the separation, with a preference of larger q and a larger fraction of twins with q > 0.95 at smaller separations. The binary population of USco differs from binaries in the field in several ways and suggests that binary statistics is not universal.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Acoustic Exposure to Turbine Operation Quantifies Risk to Bats at Commercial Wind Energy Facilities

ABSTRACT Turbine‐related bat mortality at commercial wind energy facilities may threaten populations of migratory tree‐roosting bat species in North America. Industry stakeholders and regulatory agencies alike are investigating strategies to reduce risk of population‐level consequences as the wind energy industry grows. Bats collide with turbines only when turbine rotors are spinning and curtailing turbine operation at low wind speeds can effectively reduce bat fatality rates. Nonetheless, few quantitative data exist to determine appropriate threshold wind speeds below which turbine operations should be curtailed. Carcass monitoring is labor‐intensive and does not provide information on factors linked to bat fatality rates on any scale finer than nightly. We tested whether acoustic bat data recorded at turbine nacelles could provide a more precise and sensitive measure of fatality risk to bats by analyzing acoustics, weather, turbine operation, and carcass data collected at 2 commercial wind energy facilities in West Virginia over 7 years. Each wind facility implemented several distinct curtailment treatments during our study, allowing us to compare fatality rates and acoustic bat activity across multiple operational strategies. We found that bat passes exposed to turbine operation explained close to 80% of the variation in carcass‐based estimates of bat fatality rates and accounted for significant variation in raw carcass counts per turbine and probability of finding bat carcasses during individual turbine searches. Conversely, bat activity occurring when turbines were not operating had little or no relationship to fatality rates. We also found that patterns in bat activity exposure could be predicted accurately among turbines and years. Our results demonstrate that measuring exposure of acoustic bat activity provides a quantitative basis for designing, evaluating, and adaptively managing curtailment strategies. This is an important advance towards using curtailment to reduce bat fatality rates strategically while allowing for increased generation of renewable energy. © 2021 The Authors. Wildlife Society Bulletin published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of The Wildlife Society.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Exploring HOD-dependent systematics for the DESI 2024 Full-Shape galaxy clustering analysis

We analyze the robustness of the DESI 2024 cosmological inference from the full shape of the galaxy power spectrum to uncertainties in the Halo Occupation Distribution (HOD) model of the galaxy-halo connection and the choice of priors on nuisance parameters. We assess variations in the recovered cosmological parameters across a range of mocks populated with different HOD models and find that shifts are often greater than 20% of the expected statistical uncertainties from the DESI data. We encapsulate the effect of such shifts in terms of a systematic covariance term, C HOD , and an additional diagonal contribution quantifying the impact of our choice of nuisance parameter priors on the ability of the effective field theory (EFT) model to correctly recover the cosmological parameters of the simulations. These two covariance contributions are designed to be added to the usual covariance term, C stat , describing the statistical uncertainty in the power spectrum measurement, in order to fairly represent these sources of systematic uncertainty. This novel approach should be more general and robust to the choice of model or additional external datasets used in cosmological fits than the alternative approach of adding systematic uncertainties to the recovered marginalised parameter posteriors. We compare the approaches within the context of a fixed ΛCDM model and demonstrate that our method gives conservative estimates of the systematic uncertainty that nevertheless have little impact on the final posteriors obtained from DESI data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Correcting for Selection Biases in the Determination of the Hubble Constant from Time-Delay Cosmography

The time delay between multiple images of strongly lensed quasars has been used to infer the Hubble constant. The primary systematic uncertainty for time-delay cosmography is the mass-sheet transform (MST), which preserves the lensing observables while altering the inferred ⁠H 0 . The TDCOSMO collaboration used velocity dispersion measurements of lensed quasars and lensed galaxies to infer that mass sheets are present, which decrease the inferred H 0 by 8 per cent. Here, we test the assumption that the density profiles of galaxy–galaxy and galaxy–quasar lenses are the same. We use a composite star-plus-dark-matter mass profile for the parent deflector population and model the selection function for galaxy–galaxy and galaxy–quasar lenses. We find that a power-law density profile with an MST is a good approximation to a two-component mass profile around the Einstein radius, but we find that galaxy–galaxy lenses have systematically higher mass-sheet components than galaxy–quasar lenses. For individual systems, λ int correlates with the ratio of the half-light radius and Einstein radius of the lens. By propagating these results through the TDCOSMO hierarchical inference code, we find that H 0 is lowered by a further 3 per cent. Using a more recent measurement of velocity dispersions and our fiducial model for selection biases, we infer H 0 = 66 ± 4 (stat) ± 1 (model sys) ± 2 (measurement sys) km s -1 Mpc -1 for the TDCOSMO plus SLACS data set. The first residual systematic error is due to plausible alternative choices in modelling the selection function, and the second is an estimate of the remaining systematic error in the measurement of velocity dispersions for SLACS lenses. Accurate time-delay cosmography requires precise velocity dispersion measurements and accurate calibration of selection biases.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Spectra and characteristics of somatic mutations induced by ionizing radiation in hematopoietic stem cells

Spectra and frequencies of spontaneous and X-ray-induced somatic mutations were revealed with mouse long-term hematopoietic stem cells (LT-HSCs) by whole-genome sequencing of clonal cell populations propagated in vitro from single isolated LT-HSCs. SNVs and small indels were the most common types of somatic mutations, and increased up to twofold to threefold by whole-body X-irradiation. Base substitution patterns in the SNVs suggested a role of reactive oxygen species in radiation mutagenesis, and signature analysis of single base substitutions (SBS) revealed a dose-dependent increase of SBS40. Most of spontaneous small deletions were shrinkage of tandem repeats, and X-irradiation specifically induced small deletions out of tandem repeats (non-repeat deletions). Presence of microhomology sequences in non-repeat deletions suggested involvement of microhomology mediated end-joining repair mechanisms as well as nonhomologous end-joining in radiation-induced DNA damages. We also identified multisite mutations and structural variants (SV), i.e., large indels, inversions, reciprocal translocations, and complex variants. The radiation-specificity of each mutation type was evaluated from the spontaneous mutation rate and the per-Gy mutation rate estimated by linear regression, and was highest with non-repeat deletions without microhomology, followed by those with microhomology, SV except retroelement insertions, and multisite mutations; these types were thus revealed as mutational signatures of ionizing radiation. Further analysis of somatic mutations in multiple LT-HSCs indicated that large fractions of postirradiation LT-HSCs originated from single LT-HSCs that survived the irradiation and then expanded in vivo to confer marked clonality to the entire hematopoietic system, with varying clonal expansion and dynamics depending on radiation dose and fractionation.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗
DOE OSTI2022

Ab initio calculations for void swelling bias in α - and δ -plutonium

Void swelling can develop in materials under persistent irradiation when nonequilibrium vacancy and self-interstitial populations migrate under sufficiently asymmetric interaction biases. In conventional metals, the propensity is determined to the first approximation by comparing point-defect relaxation strains. We thus present DFT-based calculations of structures and formation energies and volumes of point defects in the α and the δ phases of plutonium. Here we discuss the pros and cons of various levels of electronic structure theory: spin polarization, spin-orbit coupling, and orbital polarization. Our results show that lattice defects in δ-Pu, in contrast to most fcc metals, have surprisingly small formation volumes. Equally unexpected are the large defect formation volumes found in the low-symmetry α-Pu phase. Both these unusual properties can be satisfactorily explained from defect-induced spin/orbital moment formation and destruction in the Pu phases. Surprisingly, the point defects in α-Pu are found to induce far larger transformation of the local electronic structure than in δ-Pu. When we use the calculated defect properties to estimate the classic void swelling bias in each of the phases, we find it to be unusually small in δ-Pu but likely much larger in α-Pu. Hence, swelling rates and mechanisms can diverge dramatically between the different phases of Pu. Especially in the transient regime before the formation of large defect clusters, the swelling rate of α-Pu can reliably be expected to be much larger than δ-Pu. However, accurate forecasts over longer times will require the conventional void-swelling theory to be modified to handle the complexities presented by the different Pu phases. As a case in point, we show the possible anomalous temperature dependence of vacancy properties in δ-Pu, caused by entropic contributions from defect-induced spin-lattice fluctuations. Such complications may affect defect-defect interactions and thus alter the void swelling bias.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2022

Sequentially calibrating a Bayesian microsimulation model to incorporate new information and assumptions

Background: Microsimulation models are mathematical models that simulate event histories for individual members of a population. They are useful for policy decisions because they simulate a large number of individuals from an idealized population, with features that change over time, and the resulting event histories can be summarized to describe key population-level outcomes. Model calibration is the process of incorporating evidence into the model. Calibrated models can be used to make predictions about population trends in disease outcomes and effectiveness of interventions, but calibration can be challenging and computationally expensive. Methods: This paper develops a technique for sequentially updating models to take full advantage of earlier calibration results, to ultimately speed up the calibration process. A Bayesian approach to calibration is used because it combines different sources of evidence and enables uncertainty quantification which is appealing for decision-making. We develop this method in order to re-calibrate a microsimulation model for the natural history of colorectal cancer to include new targets that better inform the time from initiation of preclinical cancer to presentation with clinical cancer (sojourn time), because model exploration and validation revealed that more information was needed on sojourn time, and that the predicted percentage of patients with cancers detected via colonoscopy screening was too low. Results: The sequential approach to calibration was more efficient than recalibrating the model from scratch. Incorporating new information on the percentage of patients with cancers detected upon screening changed the estimated sojourn time parameters significantly, increasing the estimated mean sojourn time for cancers in the colon and rectum, providing results with more validity. Conclusions: A sequential approach to recalibration can be used to efficiently recalibrate a microsimulation model when new information becomes available that requires the original targets to be supplemented with additional targets.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Potential of water quality wetlands to mitigate habitat losses from agricultural drainage modernization

Given widespread biodiversity declines, a growing global human population, and demands to improve water quality, there is an immediate need to explore land management solutions that support multiple ecosystem services. Agricultural water quality wetlands designed to provide both water quality benefits and wetland and grassland habitat are an emerging restoration solution that may reverse habitat declines in intensive agricultural areas. Installation of water quality wetlands in the Upper Midwest, USA, when considered alongside the repair and modification of aging agricultural tile drainage infrastructure, is a likely scenario that may mitigate nutrient pollution exported from agricultural systems and improve crop yields. The capacity of water quality wetlands to provide habitat within the wetland pool and the surrounding grassland is not well-studied, particularly with respect to potential habitat changes resulting from drainage infrastructure upgrades. For the current study, we produced spatially explicit models of 37 catchments distributed throughout an important region for agriculture and biodiversity, the Des Moines Lobe of Iowa. Four scenarios were considered - with and without improved drainage and with and without water quality wetlands - to estimate the net potential habitat implications of these scenarios for amphibians, grassland birds, and wild bees. Model results indicate that drainage modification alone will likely result in moderate direct losses of suitable amphibian habitat and large declines in overall habitat quality. However, inclusion of water quality wetlands at the catchment scale may mitigate these amphibian habitat losses while also increasing grassland bird and pollinator habitat. In conclusion, the impacts of water quality wetlands and drainage modernization on waterfowl in the region require additional study.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Ultraviolet H 2 luminescence in molecular clouds induced by cosmic rays

Context. Galactic cosmic rays (CRs) play a crucial role in ionisation, dissociation, and excitation processes within dense cloud regions where UV radiation is absorbed by dust grains and gas species. CRs regulate the abundance of ions and radicals, leading to the formation of more and more complex molecular species, and determine the charge distribution on dust grains. A quantitative analysis of these effects is essential for understanding the dynamical and chemical evolution of star-forming regions. Aims. The CR-induced photon flux has a significant impact on the evolution of the dense molecular medium in its gas and dust components. This study evaluates the flux of UV photons generated by CRs to calculate the photon-induced dissociation and ionisation rates of a vast number of atomic and molecular species, as well as the integrated UV photon flux. Methods. To achieve these goals, we took advantage of recent developments in the determination of the spectra of secondary electrons, in the calculation of state-resolved excitation cross sections of H 2 by electron impact, and of photodissociation and photoionisation cross sections. Results. We calculated the H 2 level population of each rovibrational level of the X, B, C, B′, D, B″, D′, and a states. We then computed the UV photon spectrum of H 2 in its line and continuum components between 72 and 700 nm, with unprecedented accuracy, as a function of the CR spectrum incident on a molecular cloud, the H 2 column density, the isomeric H 2 composition, and the dust properties. The resulting photodissociation and photoionisation rates are, on average, lower than previous determinations by a factor of about 2, with deviations of up to a factor of 5 for the photodissociation of species such as AlH, C 2 H 2 , C 2 H 3 , C 3 H 3 , LiH, N 2 , NaCl, NaH, O 2 + , S2, SiH, l-C 4 , and l-C 5 H. A special focus is given to the photoionisation rates of H 2 , HF, and N 2 , as well as to the photodissociation of H 2 , which we find to be orders of magnitude higher than previous estimates. We give parameterisations for both the photorates and the integrated UV photon flux as a function of the CR ionisation rate, which implicitly depends on the H 2 column density, as well as the dust properties.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Ultraviolet H 2 luminescence in molecular clouds induced by cosmic rays

Context. Galactic cosmic rays (CRs) play a crucial role in ionisation, dissociation, and excitation processes within dense cloud regions where UV radiation is absorbed by dust grains and gas species. CRs regulate the abundance of ions and radicals, leading to the formation of more and more complex molecular species, and determine the charge distribution on dust grains. A quantitative analysis of these effects is essential for understanding the dynamical and chemical evolution of star-forming regions. Aims. The CR-induced photon flux has a significant impact on the evolution of the dense molecular medium in its gas and dust components. This study evaluates the flux of UV photons generated by CRs to calculate the photon-induced dissociation and ionisation rates of a vast number of atomic and molecular species, as well as the integrated UV photon flux. Methods. To achieve these goals, we took advantage of recent developments in the determination of the spectra of secondary electrons, in the calculation of state-resolved excitation cross sections of H 2 by electron impact, and of photodissociation and photoionisation cross sections. Results. We calculated the H 2 level population of each rovibrational level of the X, B, C, B', D, B", D', and a states. We then computed the UV photon spectrum of H 2 in its line and continuum components between 72 and 700 nm, with unprecedented accuracy, as a function of the CR spectrum incident on a molecular cloud, the H 2 column density, the isomeric H 2 composition, and the dust properties. The resulting photodissociation and photoionisation rates are, on average, lower than previous determinations by a factor of about 2, with deviations of up to a factor of 5 for the photodissociation of species such as AlH, C 2 H 2 , C 2 H 3 , C 3 H 3 , LiH, N 2 , NaCl, NaH, O$^+_2$, S 2 , SiH, l-C 4 , and l-C 5 H. A special focus is given to the photoionisation rates of H 2 , HF, and N 2 , as well as to the photodissociation of H 2 , which we find to be orders of magnitude higher than previous estimates. We give parameterisations for both the photorates and the integrated UV photon flux as a function of the CR ionisation rate, which implicitly depends on the H 2 column density, as well as the dust properties.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

​​Updates to Anaerobic Digestion Pathways for Animal Manure in R&D GREET 2025​

Livestock and poultry manure management in the U.S. is a greenhouse gas (GHG) intensive process, emitting 81.7 MMT CO 2 e in 2022 (1.5% of net U.S. GHG emissions). The primary GHG is methane (CH 4 ), with 2,312 kt released in 2022 (9% of U.S. CH 4 emissions). Manure management methods are commonly categorized by whether they are anaerobic (“wet”) or aerobic (“dry”) techniques. Although dry methods manage the largest share of manure, the majority of GHG emissions are generated during storage of manure in anaerobic conditions – typically in water-filled tanks, pits, or lagoons. There has been a 65% increase in emissions from 1990, primarily due to an increasing cattle population. Also, this rise in population has been coupled with a rise in animal confinement and density, which typically adopt wet manure management methods. Within wet methods, anaerobic bacteria proliferate and decompose volatile solids (VS) within the manure in a process called anaerobic digestion to produce roughly equal mixtures of CH 4 and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ). These GHGs are fugitive, in that they are assumed to be released to the atmosphere and contribute to GHGs within U.S. GHG inventories. If the methane is captured and purified (i.e., “upgraded”) this simultaneously mitigates GHGs that would have otherwise been released and produces a valuable energy product known colloquially as Renewable Natural Gas (RNG). Such processes are acknowledged by U.S. policy through programs such as the U.S. Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS), the federal Clean Fuel Production Credit (45Z), and state clean fuel standards (CFS). In the 45Z and CFS schemes, the GHG emissions of the business-as-usual (BAU) manure management system is taken as a baseline, and credits are received based on GHG reductions relative to this baseline. Thus, estimating the GHG emissions of the BAU scenario (also known as the “counterfactual”) is necessary.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2020

ProZES: the methodology and software tool for assessment of assigned share of radiation in probability of cancer occurrence

ProZES is a software tool for estimating the probability that a given cancer was caused by preceding exposure to ionising radiation. ProZES calculates this probability, the assigned share, for solid cancers and hematopoietic malignant diseases, in cases of exposures to low-LET radiation, and for lung cancer in cases of exposure to radon. User-specified inputs include birth year, sex, type of diagnosed cancer, age at diagnosis, radiation exposure history and characteristics, and smoking behaviour for lung cancer. Cancer risk models are an essential part of ProZES. Linking disease and exposure to radiation involves several methodological aspects, and assessment of uncertainties received particular attention. ProZES systematically uses the principle of multi-model inference. Models of radiation risk were either newly developed or critically re-evaluated for ProZES, including dedicated models for frequent types of cancer and, for less common diseases, models for groups of functionally similar cancer sites. The low-LET models originate mostly from the study of atomic bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Risks predicted by these models are adjusted to be applicable to the population of Germany and to different time periods. Adjustment factors for low dose rates and for a reduced risk during the minimum latency time between exposure and cancer are also applied. The development of the methodology and software was initiated and supported by the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU) taking up advice by the German Commission on Radiological Protection (SSK, Strahlenschutzkommission). These provide the scientific basis to support decision making on compensation claims regarding malignancies following occupational exposure to radiation in Germany.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Association mapping across a multitude of traits collected in diverse environments in maize

Abstract Classical genetic studies have identified many cases of pleiotropy where mutations in individual genes alter many different phenotypes. Quantitative genetic studies of natural genetic variants frequently examine one or a few traits, limiting their potential to identify pleiotropic effects of natural genetic variants. Widely adopted community association panels have been employed by plant genetics communities to study the genetic basis of naturally occurring phenotypic variation in a wide range of traits. High-density genetic marker data—18M markers—from 2 partially overlapping maize association panels comprising 1,014 unique genotypes grown in field trials across at least 7 US states and scored for 162 distinct trait data sets enabled the identification of of 2,154 suggestive marker-trait associations and 697 confident associations in the maize genome using a resampling-based genome-wide association strategy. The precision of individual marker-trait associations was estimated to be 3 genes based on a reference set of genes with known phenotypes. Examples were observed of both genetic loci associated with variation in diverse traits (e.g., above-ground and below-ground traits), as well as individual loci associated with the same or similar traits across diverse environments. Many significant signals are located near genes whose functions were previously entirely unknown or estimated purely via functional data on homologs. This study demonstrates the potential of mining community association panel data using new higher-density genetic marker sets combined with resampling-based genome-wide association tests to develop testable hypotheses about gene functions, identify potential pleiotropic effects of natural genetic variants, and study genotype-by-environment interaction.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Regional Relative Risk, a Physics-Based Metric for Characterizing Airborne Infectious Disease Transmission

Airborne infectious disease transmission events occur over a wide range of spatial scales and can be an important means of disease transmission. Physics- and biology-based models can assist in predicting airborne transmission events, overall disease incidence, and disease control strategy efficacy. We describe a new theory that extends current approaches for the case in which an individual is infected by a single airborne particle, including the scenario in which numerous infectious particles are present in the air but only one causes infection. A single infectious particle can contain more than one pathogenic microorganism and be physically larger than the pathogen itself. This approach allows robust relative risk estimates even when there is wide variation in (i) individual exposures and (ii) the individual response to that exposure (the pathogen dose-response function can take any mathematical form and vary by individual). Based on this theory, we propose the regional relative risk—a new metric, distinct from the traditional relative risk metric, that compares the risk between two regions. In theory, these regions can range from individual rooms to large geographic areas. In this paper, we apply the regional relative risk metric to outdoor disease transmission events over spatial scales ranging from 50 m to 20 km, demonstrating that in many common cases minimal input information is required to use the metric. Also, we demonstrate that the model predictions are consistent with data from prior outbreaks. Future efforts could apply and validate this theory for other spatial scales, such as transmission within indoor environments. This work provides context for (i) the initial stages of an airborne disease outbreak and (ii) larger-scale disease spread, including unexpected low-probability disease “sparks” that potentially affect remote populations, a key practical issue in controlling airborne disease outbreaks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Solar Steam on Demand

INTRODUCTION: This Report summarizes the research and development project performed by Sunvapor and the subrecipient National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) during the period of 10/01/2018-9/30/2021. The work was aimed at the economic integration of solar steam with an industrial process, and in particular, the advantages that a novel type of thermal energy storage and collector design could bring to the system. The completed work includes experimental research on the storage material, design of the collector, engineering of a complete solar steam plant, and economic analysis. The plant was, in the end, not constructed, due to COVID-19 impacts to the project host. PURPOSE: The purpose of the project was to test the hypothesis that a levelized cost of heat (LCOH) of 2¢/kWh delivered to a steam-consuming process, including energy discharged from storage, could be feasibly achieved. PROJECT OBJECTIVES: For Budget Period 1 our objectives were to engineer a prototype industrial solar steam generation system, and design and test a Latent Heat Energy Storage (LHES) lab-scale system. For Budget Period 2 our objectives were to construct and test the solar steam prototype plant, and to build and factory-test a full LHES module. For Budget Period 3 our objective was to integrate the storage module with the solar steam generator, show successful long duration energy tests of the combined system, and use the results to project the LCOH of delivered steam to a second-generation plant. PROJECT OUTCOMES: Various phase change materials (PCMs) for the LHES were tested for compatibility with industrial steam uses as measured by phase change temperature, stability of latent heat of fusion, and their corrosive effects on steel (the heat exchanger material). Two of these materials (sodium formate and sodium/ potassium) showed potential to meet the technical criteria. The estimated cost of a complete LHES module with these materials did not meet economic targets. The developmental collector design builds from previous work to exploit the potential cost advantages of a spaceframe of lumber construction. Design improvements were achieved in assembly efficiency and structural performance. A complete engineering package was completed for the solar steam system without storage that included the developmental as well as commercial arrays. The plant was permitted for construction. The storage CAPEX for a reference plant was estimate to be greater than $\$ 57$/kWh. The LCOH of the system without storage and with developmental collectors of lumber construction was projected to be 2¢/kWh, assuming a FCR of 8.2% over thirty years. PROJECT MILESTONES: The Milestones fully achieved in the first Budget Period includes obtaining a Letter of Intent from an industrial steam-consuming project host, issuance of a construction permit, and corrosion resistance. The Milestone that was partly achieved was the degradation in the latent heat of fusion. Milestones associated with Budget Periods 2 and 3, related to the construction and operation of the plant were not achieved as a result of the host shutting down the plant due to COVID-19 impacts. CONCLUSIONS: Sunvapor was able to secure an agreement with a host to build a fully engineered and permitted solar steam plant that met the host’s economic goals. As a basis for comparison, the solar field design was comprised of eight commercial collector arrays and one developmental Green Parabolic Trough Collector (GPTC) array. The projected LCOH with a solar field entirely populated with a second generation GPTC met the goal of 2¢/kWh. The experimental program concerning the PCM indicated the feasibility of meeting their technical requirements for industrial steam uses. The cost of the complete LHES exceeded its $\$ 14$/kWh target, and therefore the inclusion of LHES could not be economically justified. Due to COVID-19 impacts on the host, the solar steam plant was not constructed.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Optimizing radar scan strategies for tracking isolated deep convection using observing system simulation experiments

Abstract. Optimizing radar observation strategies is one of the most important considerations in pre-field campaign periods. This is especially true for isolated convective clouds that typically evolve faster than the observations captured by operational radar networks. This study investigates uncertainties in radar observations of the evolution of the microphysical and dynamical properties of isolated deep convective clouds developing in clean and polluted environments. It aims to optimize the radar observation strategy for deep convection through the use of high-spatiotemporal cloud-resolving model simulations, which resolve the evolution of individual convective cells every 1 min, coupled with a radar simulator and a cell tracking algorithm. The radar simulation settings are based on the Tracking Aerosol Convection Interactions ExpeRiment (TRACER) and Experiment of Sea Breeze Convection, Aerosols, Precipitation and Environment (ESCAPE) field campaigns held in the Houston, TX, area but are generalizable to other field campaigns focusing on isolated deep convection. Our analysis produces the following four outcomes. First, a 5–7 m s−1 median difference in maximum updrafts of tracked cells is shown between the clean and polluted simulations in the early stages of the cloud lifetimes. This demonstrates the importance of obtaining accurate estimates of vertical velocity from observations if aerosol impacts are to be properly resolved. Second, tracking of individual cells and using vertical cross section scanning every minute capture the evolution of precipitation particle number concentration and size represented by polarimetric observables better than the operational radar observations that update the volume scan every 5 min. This approach also improves multi-Doppler radar updraft retrievals above 5 km above ground level for regions with updraft velocities greater than 10 m s−1. Third, we propose an optimized strategy composed of cell tracking by quick (1–2 min) vertical cross section scans from more than one radar in addition to the operational volume scans. We also propose the use of a single-RHI (range height indicator) updraft retrieval technique for cells close to the radars, for which multi-Doppler radar retrievals are still challenging. Finally, increasing the number of deep convective cells sampled by such observations better represents the median maximum updraft evolution with sample sizes of more than 10 deep cells, which decreases the error associated with sampling the true population to less than 3 m s−1.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

What's on the menu? Examining native apex‐ and invasive meso‐predator diets to understand impacts on ecosystems

Abstract Understanding how carnivores impact ecological communities is essential for guiding effective management actions and conserving biodiversity. Quantifying predators' diets, including prey selectivity, allows for the assessment of the relative effects native and invasive predators may have on prey populations. In Australia, populations of a native, terrestrial apex predator, the dingo Canis dingo/C. familiaris , and introduced and invasive subordinate mesopredators, the European red fox Vulpes vulpes and feral cat Felis catus , co‐occur, but there is limited understanding of their relative impacts on native and invasive prey in different ecosystems. To assess the possible effects of dingoes, foxes and cats on prey, we examined their diet and prey selectivity across a ~10,000 km 2 semi‐arid mallee ecosystem. Using macroscopic scat analysis, we identified strong dietary niche separation. Larger‐bodied dingoes primarily consumed large marsupial herbivores, whereas foxes and cats primarily consumed smaller prey, including introduced and native rodents and birds. Foxes had the broadest diet, and the greatest dietary overlap with cats ( = 0.81), compared with dingoes ( = 0.50) or between dingoes and cats ( = 0.36). Livestock were identified in 2% of dingo and 7% of fox scats. Cats and foxes consumed more than 15 times the volume of small native mammals compared with dingoes, including threatened species such as fat‐tailed dunnarts Sminthopsis crassicaudata . Cats and foxes also selectively consumed small mammals relative to their estimated availability and consumed fewer large mammals. In contrast, dingoes consumed fewer birds and more echidnas relative to their availability. Our results suggest limited intraguild competition within this semi‐arid ecosystem, as dingoes are primarily exerting top‐down pressure on large herbivores, whereas invasive mesopredators are disproportionately impacting smaller prey, including threatened native mammals. Practical implication . Our findings suggest that ongoing conservation management of dingoes, red foxes and feral cats must consider the variation in diets, impacts on prey and ecological roles of these different predator species, and avoid indiscriminate lethal control methods. Quantifying actual, rather than assumed, impacts of predators on threatened native species, large herbivores and livestock is essential to achieve effective and integrated ecosystem management.

Mason, Rachel T. [School of Life and Environmental↗