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At least 829 records · Page 46
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Sensitivity of the pseudo-global warming method under flood conditions: a case study from the northeastern US

Abstract. Intensified extreme precipitation and corresponding floods are the most relevant consequences of climate change over the northeastern US (NEUS). To evaluate the impacts of climate change or certain climate perturbations on future extreme weather events which are dynamically similar to historic analogs, the pseudo-global warming (PGW) method has been frequently employed; however, this method lacks precise definition and guidelines, thus limiting its application. More specifically, three key questions related to the application of the PGW method remain unanswered: at what spatial scale should climate perturbations be applied? Among the different meteorological variables available, which ones should be perturbed? And will PGW projections vary significantly when different perturbations are applied? To address these questions, we examine the sensitivity and robustness of conclusions drawn from the PGW method over the NEUS by conducting multiple PGW experiments with varied perturbation spatial scales and choice of perturbed meteorological variables. The results show that the projections of precipitation and other essential variables at the regional mean scale are consistent across the PGW simulations, with a relative difference of much less than 10 %; however, different perturbation modifications can cause significant displacements of the storm events being simulated. Several previously assumed advantages of modifying only the temperature at regional mean scale, such as the preservation of geostrophic balance, do not appear to hold. Also, for these experiments, we find the regional mean perturbation produces a positive precipitation bias because it ignores the land–ocean warming contrast, which is a robust regional response to global warming. Overall, PGW experiments with perturbations from temperature or the combination of temperature and wind at the grid point scale are both recommended, depending on the research questions. The first approach can isolate the spatially dependent thermodynamic impact, and the latter incorporates both the thermodynamic and dynamic impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1984

Natural convection in steady solidification - Finite element analysis of a two-phase Rayleigh-Benard problem

Galerkin finite-element approximations and Newton's method for solving free boundary problems are combined with computer-implemented techniques from nonlinear perturbation analysis to study solidification problems with natural convection in the melt. The Newton method gives rapid convergence to steady state velocity, temperature and pressure fields and melt-solid interface shapes, and forms the basis for algebraic methods for detecting multiple steady flows and assessing their stability. The power of this combination is demonstrated for a two-phase Rayleigh-Benard problem composed of melt and solid in a veritical cylinder with the thermal boundary conditions arranged so that a static melt with a flat melt-solid interface is always a solution. Multiple cellular flows bifurcating from the static state are detected and followed as Rayleigh number is varied. Changing the boundary conditions to approach those appropriate for the vertical Bridgman solidification system causes imperfections that eliminate the static state. The flow structure in the Bridgman system is related to those for the Rayleigh-Benard system by a continuous evolution of the boundary conditions.

Chang, C. J.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Unified analysis of finite-size error for periodic Hartree-Fock and second order Møller-Plesset perturbation theory

Despite decades of practice, finite-size errors in many widely used electronic structure theories for periodic systems remain poorly understood. For periodic systems using a general Monkhorst-Pack grid, there has been no comprehensive and rigorous analysis of the finite-size error in the Hartree-Fock theory (HF) and the second order Møller-Plesset perturbation theory (MP2), which are the simplest wavefunction based method, and the simplest post-Hartree-Fock method, respectively. Such calculations can be viewed as a multi-dimensional integral discretized with certain trapezoidal rules. Due to the Coulomb singularity, the integrand has many points of discontinuity in general, and standard error analysis based on the Euler-Maclaurin formula gives overly pessimistic results. The lack of analytic understanding of finite-size errors also impedes the development of effective finite-size correction schemes. We propose a unified analysis to obtain sharp convergence rates of finite-size errors for the periodic HF and MP2 theories. Our main technical advancement is a generalization of the result of Lyness [Math. Comp. 30 (1976), pp. 1–23] for obtaining sharp convergence rates of the trapezoidal rule for a class of non-smooth integrands. Our result is applicable to three-dimensional bulk systems as well as low dimensional systems (such as nanowires and 2D materials). Our unified analysis also allows us to prove the effectiveness of the Madelung-constant correction to the Fock exchange energy, and the effectiveness of a recently proposed staggered mesh method for periodic MP2 calculations (see X. Xing, X. Li, and L. Lin [J. Chem. Theory Comput. 17 (2021), pp. 4733–4745]). In conclusion, our analysis connects the effectiveness of the staggered mesh method with integrands with removable singularities, and suggests a new staggered mesh method for reducing finite-size errors of periodic HF calculations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1982

Combined four-wall interference assessment in two-dimensional airfoil tests

Two different procedures are examined for combining the correction method developed by Barnwell and Sewall for the effects of the sidewall boundary layer in two-dimensional wind-tunnel tests with the assessment and correction method due to Kemp for the effects of the upper and lower tunnel walls. One procedure utilizes the similarity transformation defined by Sewall to eliminate velocity perturbations induced by the sidewall boundary layer from consideration in the assessment and correction method as sources of error. The other procedure combines perturbations from all four walls before assessment and correction. In general, the two procedures yield different corrections to Mach number and angle of attack, either of which can be considered valid. Pressure distributions corrected for higher order interference effects are provided by either procedure.

Kemp, W. B., Jr.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Assessing the Sensitivity of the Tropical Cyclone Boundary Layer to the Parameterization of Momentum Flux in the Community Earth System Model

Recent studies have demonstrated that high-resolution (~25 km) Earth System Models (ESMs) have the potential to skillfully predict tropical cyclone (TC) occurrence and intensity. However, biases in ESM TCs still exist, largely due to the need to parameterize processes such as boundary layer (PBL) turbulence. Building on past studies, we hypothesize that the depiction of the TC PBL in ESMs is sensitive to the configuration of the PBL parameterization scheme, and that the targeted perturbation of tunable parameters can reduce biases. The Morris one-at-a-time (MOAT) method is implemented to assess the sensitivity of the TC PBL to tunable parameters in the PBL scheme in an idealized configuration of the Community Atmosphere Model, version 6 (CAM6). The MOAT method objectively identifies several parameters in an experimental version of the Cloud Layers Unified by Binormals (CLUBB) scheme that appreciably influence the structure of the TC PBL. We then perturb the parameters identified by the MOAT method within a suite of CAM6 ensemble simulations and find a reduction in model biases compared to observations and a high-resolution, cloud-resolving model. Importantly, we demonstrate that the high-sensitivity parameters are tied to PBL processes that reduce turbulent mixing and effective eddy diffusivity, and that in CAM6 these parameters alter the TC PBL in a manner consistent with past modeling studies. In this way, we provide an initial identification of process-based input parameters that, when altered, have the potential to improve TC predictions by ESMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2013

Monte Carlo Bayesian Inference on a Statistical Model of Sub-gridcolumn Moisture Variability Using High-resolution Cloud Observations : Sensitivity Tests and Results - Part II

Part I presented a Monte Carlo Bayesian method for constraining a complex statistical model of GCM sub-gridcolumn moisture variability using high-resolution MODIS cloud data, thereby permitting large-scale model parameter estimation and cloud data assimilation. This part performs some basic testing of this new approach, verifying that it does indeed significantly reduce mean and standard deviation biases with respect to the assimilated MODIS cloud optical depth, brightness temperature and cloud top pressure, and that it also improves the simulated rotational-Ramman scattering cloud optical centroid pressure (OCP) against independent (non-assimilated) retrievals from the OMI instrument. Of particular interest, the Monte Carlo method does show skill in the especially difficult case where the background state is clear but cloudy observations exist. In traditional linearized data assimilation methods, a subsaturated background cannot produce clouds via any infinitesimal equilibrium perturbation, but the Monte Carlo approach allows finite jumps into regions of non-zero cloud probability. In the example provided, the method is able to restore marine stratocumulus near the Californian coast where the background state has a clear swath. This paper also examines a number of algorithmic and physical sensitivities of the new method and provides guidance for its cost-effective implementation. One obvious difficulty for the method, and other cloud data assimilation methods as well, is the lack of information content in the cloud observables on cloud vertical structure, beyond cloud top pressure and optical thickness, thus necessitating strong dependence on the background vertical moisture structure. It is found that a simple flow-dependent correlation modification due to Riishojgaard (1998) provides some help in this respect, by better honoring inversion structures in the background state.

Monte Carlo Bayesian inference↗
NASA NTRS1992

The mass of (1) Ceres from perturbations on (348) May

The most promising ground-based technique for determining the mass of a minor planet is the observation of the perturbations it induces in the motion of another minor planet. This method requires careful observation of both minor planets over extended periods of time. The mass of (1) Ceres has been determined from the perturbations on (348) May, which made three close approaches to Ceres at intervals of 46 years between 1891 and 1984. The motion of May is clearly influenced by Ceres, and by using different test masses for Ceres, a search was made to determine the mass of Ceres that minimizes the residuals in the observations of May.

Williams, Gareth V.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Guiding centre motion for particles in a ponderomotive magnetostatic end plug

The Hamiltonian dynamics of a single particle in a rotating plasma column, interacting with an magnetic multipole is perturbatively solved for up to second order, using the method of Lie transformations. First, the exact Hamiltonian is expressed in terms of canonical action-angle variables, and then an approximate integrable Hamiltonian is introduced, using another set of actions and angles, which describe the centre of oscillation for the particle. The perturbation introduces an effective ponderomotive potential, which to leading order is positive. At the second order, the pseudopotential consists of a sum of terms of the Miller form, and can have either sign. Additionally, at second order, the ponderomotive interaction introduces a modification to the particle effective mass, when considering the motion along the column axis. It is found that particles can be axially confined by the ponderomotive potentials, but acquire radial excursions which scale as the confining potential. The radial excursions of the particle along its trajectory are investigated, and a condition for the minimal rotation frequency for which the particle remains radially confined is derived. Last, we comment on the changes to the aforementioned solution to the pseudopotentials and particle trajectory in the case of resonant motion, that is, a motion which has the same periodicity as the perturbation.

Rubin, T. (ORCID:0000000164850096)↗
NASA NTRS1986

Dynamics of a discrete auroral arc

Porcupine Flight 4 data were used to determine the field-aligned currents associated with a southward moving discrete auroral arc in the postmidnight sector. Three different methods were used for determining the field-aligned current which should give identical results if the arcs are quasi-stationary and no parallel electric field exists between the payload and the dynamo region of the ionosphere. As long as the rocket is above the arc, the three methods agree. The integral of precipitating electron flux, the local magnetic field perturbations, and the divergence of the horizontal Pedersen current all indicate an upward current of 5 + or - 3 microamperes/sq m. Immediately north of the arc a strong downward current of about 10-20 microamperes/sq m is detected. The magnitude, however, is not well known because the rocket's velocity relative to the arc cannot be clearly established. Further north of the southward moving arc, the two methods that can be applied (magnetic field perturbations and divergence of the horizontal Pedersen current) yield contradictory results not only about the magnitude of the current but also about the direction of the current. It is suggested that this discrepancy is due to time-dependent electric field.

Bruening, K.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Repartitioning the Hamiltonian in many-body second-order Brillouin–Wigner perturbation theory: Uncovering new size-consistent models

Second-order Møller-Plesset perturbation theory is well-known as a computationally inexpensive approach to the electron correlation problem that is size-consistent with a size-consistent reference but fails to be regular. On the other hand, the less well-known many-body version of Brillouin-Wigner perturbation theory has the reverse properties: it is regular but fails to be size-consistent when used with the standard MP partitioning. Consequently, its widespread use remains limited. In this work, we analyze the ways in which it is possible to use alternative non-MP partitions of the Hamiltonian to yield variants of BW2 that are size-consistent as well as regular. We show that there is a vast space of such BW2 theories and also show that it is possible to define a repartitioned BW2 theory from the ground state density alone, which regenerates the exact correlation energy. We also provide a general recipe for deriving regular, size-consistent, and size-extensive partitions from physically meaningful components, and we apply the result to small model systems. The scope of these results appears to further set the stage for a revival of BW2 in quantum chemistry.

Ab initio perturbation↗
NASA NTRS1987

The use of atmospheric measurements to constrain model predictions of ozone change from chlorine perturbations

Atmospheric photochemistry models have been used to predict the sensitivity of the ozone layer to various perturbations. These same models also predict concentrations of chemical species in the present day atmosphere which can be compared to observations. Model results for both present day values and sensitivity to perturbation depend upon input data for reaction rates, photodissociation rates, and boundary conditions. A method of combining the results of a Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis with the existing set of present atmospheric species measurements is developed. The method is used to examine the range of values for the sensitivity of ozone to chlorine perturbations that is possible within the currently accepted ranges for input data. It is found that model runs which predict ozone column losses much greater than 10 percent as a result of present fluorocarbon fluxes produce concentrations and column amounts in the present atmosphere which are inconsistent with the measurements for ClO, HCl, NO, NO2, and HNO3.

Douglass, Anne R.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Scattering of Low Energy Electrons and Positrons from Hydrogenic Systems and Applications

While the electron scatters from the target, the target no longer stays in its original form. One of the first methods to take into account the distortion of the target at low incident energies is the method of polarized orbitals. In this method the wave function for the process is written using the first-order perturbation theory and the equation for the scattering function is derived from the Schradinger equation. This method has been very successful in calculating the phase shifts and therefore the cross sections at various energies. The total wave function can be used to calculate photoionization cross sections. The disadvantage of this approach is that the method is not variational and therefore does not provide bounds on the phase shifts. These difficulties can be overcome by using the Feshbach projection operator formalism. This approach has been employed for the scattering of electrons and positrons from targets. Results of various calculations will be discussed.

Bhatia, Anand K.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Bounded motion design in the Earth zonal problem using differential algebra based normal form methods

Establishing long-term relative bounded motion between orbits in perturbed dynamics is a key challenge in astrodynamics to enable cluster flight with minimum propellant expenditure. Herein, we present an approach that allows for the design of long-term relative bounded motion considering a zonal gravitational model. Entire sets of orbits are obtained via high-order Taylor expansions of Poincarè return maps about reference fixed points. The high-order normal form algorithm is used to determine a change in expansion variables of the map into normal form space, in which the phase space behavior is circular and can be easily parameterized by action–angle coordinates. The action–angle representation of the normal form coordinates is then used to parameterize the original Poincarè return map and average it over a full phase space revolution by a path integral along the angle parameterization. As a result, the averaged nodal period and drift in the ascending node are obtained, for which the bounded motion conditions are straightforwardly imposed. Sets of highly accurate bounded orbits are obtained, extending over several thousand kilometers, and valid for decades.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Electron-Ion Dynamics with Time-Dependent Density Functional Theory: Towards Predictive Solar Cell Modeling

This project focussed on two aspects of computational modeling with a view toward application for photovoltaic design: (i) increased reliability of exchange-correlation functionals in time-dependent density functional theory (TDDFT) (a method of choice of the calculation of electronic spectra and dynamics), especially for time-resolved non-perturbative dynamics, and (ii) the development of a practical but rigorously-based method for coupling electronic and nuclear motion via the exact-factorization (EF) approach (a relatively new framework for developing approximations).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS2003

The Updated Umkehr Ozone Retrieval Algorithm and its Validation against Satellite Data

Improvements to the Umkehr ozone profile retrieval algorithm have been developed and are now being evaluated. The updated algorithm is able to simulate observations more accurately and provides data output that is easier to analyze. Among the new diagnostic capabilities that the updated algorithm provides is the averaging kernel (AK) method. The AK approach allows studying how the algorithm responds when a small perturbation is made in a particular layer of the atmosphere [Rodgers 1976, 1990]. We will use the AK method to define precisely what Umkehr should measure given a set of profiles measured by other platforms. This method allows us to compare trends and offsets in data more accurately than it has been done in the past. The updated Umkehr retrievals will be validated against SAGE II ozone profiles as well as SSBUV ozone profile data. We will discuss possible reasons for offset between data and differences in derived ozone profile trends. Considerable variability of the ozone profile within the 10-degree latitude envelope creates noise in the SAGE matching dataset and makes comparisons difficult. To eliminate this problem, the SAGE and Umkehr data had been previously de-seasonalized by subtracting the latitude/season dependent ozone climatology. However, the remaining noise in the ozone residuals was still considerably high for trend analysis and was attributed to longitude variability of SAGE sampling. The new ozone climatology (Labow, NASA) that has longitude dependent ozone variability will be used to minimize contribution of sampling noise in comparisons of satellite and ground station. The comparison of zenith-sky radiances (Umkehr N-value measurements) synthesized for a given set of SAGE profiles will be used to determine whether SAGE-derived N-values agree with the Umkehr-measured N-values. The instrumental effects will be discussed. Both the Umkehr data and SAGE II measurements will be analyzed for their information about ozone variability and loss and recovery rates at the mid- and upper (40 km) levels. The updated long-term Umkehr dataset can be used to provide high quality information for identifying signs of ozone recovery. The long Umkehr historical record can provide additional information for separating the dynamic and chemical mechanisms of depletion, and can help the community better understand climate change effects.

Petropavlovskikh, I.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Convergence of Eigenvector Continuation

Eigenvector continuation is a computational method that finds the extremal eigenvalues and eigenvectors of a Hamiltonian matrix with one or more control parameters. It does this by projection onto a subspace of eigenvectors corresponding to selected training values of the control parameters. The method has proven to be very efficient and accurate for interpolating and extrapolating eigenvectors. However, almost nothing is known about how the method converges, and its rapid convergence properties have remained mysterious. In this Letter, we present the first study of the convergence of eigenvector continuation. In order to perform the mathematical analysis, we introduce a new variant of eigenvector continuation that we call vector continuation. We first prove that eigenvector continuation and vector continuation have identical convergence properties and then analyze the convergence of vector continuation. Our analysis shows that, in general, eigenvector continuation converges more rapidly than perturbation theory. The faster convergence is achieved by eliminating a phenomenon that we call differential folding, the interference between nonorthogonal vectors appearing at different orders in perturbation theory. From our analysis we can predict how eigenvector continuation converges both inside and outside the radius of convergence of perturbation theory. Further, while eigenvector continuation is a nonperturbative method, we show that its rate of convergence can be deduced from power series expansions of the eigenvectors. Our results also yield new insights into the nature of divergences in perturbation theory.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

Machine learning methods for probabilistic locked-mode predictors in tokamak plasmas

A rotating tokamak plasma can interact resonantly with the external helical magnetic perturbations, also known as error fields. This can lead to locking and then to disruptions. We leverage machine learning (ML) methods to predict the locking events. We use a coupled third-order nonlinear ordinary differential equation model to represent the interaction of the magnetic perturbation and the plasma rotation with the error field. This model is sufficient to describe qualitatively the locking and unlocking bifurcations. Here, we explore using ML algorithms with the simulation data and experimental data, focusing on the methods that can be used with sparse datasets. These methods lead to the possibility of the avoidance of locking in real-time operations. We describe the operational space in terms of two control parameters: the magnitude of the error field and the rotation frequency associated with the momentum source that maintains the plasma rotation. The outcomes are quan- tified by order parameters that completely characterize the state, whether locked or unlocked. We use unsupervised ML methods to classify locked/unlocked states and note the usefulness of a certain normalization of the order parameters. Three supervised ML classifiers are used in suite to estimate the probability of locking in the region of control parameter space with hysteresis, i.e., the set of control parameters for which both locked and unlocked states can exist. The results show that a neural network gives the best estimate of the locking probability. An analogy of the present locking model with the van der Waals equation of state is also provided.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
NASA NTRS1981

Development of an efficient procedure for calculating the aerodynamic effects of planform variation

Numerical procedures to compute gradients in aerodynamic loading due to planform shape changes using panel method codes were studied. Two procedures were investigated: one computed the aerodynamic perturbation directly; the other computed the aerodynamic loading on the perturbed planform and on the base planform and then differenced these values to obtain the perturbation in loading. It is indicated that computing the perturbed values directly can not be done satisfactorily without proper aerodynamic representation of the pressure singularity at the leading edge of a thin wing. For the alternative procedure, a technique was developed which saves most of the time-consuming computations from a panel method calculation for the base planform. Using this procedure the perturbed loading can be calculated in about one-tenth the time of that for the base solution.

Mercer, J. E.↗