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At least 829 records · Page 46

Role of Satellite Rainfall Information in Improving Understanding of the Dynamical Link Between the Tropics and Extratropics Prospects of Improved Forecasts of Weather and Short-Term Climate Variability on Sub-Seasonal Time Scales

The tropics and extratropics are two dynamically distinct regimes. The coupling between these two regimes often defies simple analytical treatment. Progress in understanding of the dynamical interaction between the tropics and extratropics relies on better observational descriptions to guide theoretical development. However, global analyses currently contain significant errors in primary hydrological variables such as precipitation, evaporation, moisture, and clouds, especially in the tropics. Tropical analyses have been shown to be sensitive to parameterized precipitation processes, which are less than perfect, leading to order-one discrepancies between estimates produced by different data assimilation systems. One strategy for improvement is to assimilate rainfall observations to constrain the analysis and reduce uncertainties in variables physically linked to precipitation. At the Data Assimilation Office at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, we have been exploring the use of tropical rain rates derived from the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) and the Special Sensor Microwave/ Imager (SSM/I) instruments in global data assimilation. Results show that assimilating these data improves not only rainfall and moisture fields but also related climate parameters such as clouds and radiation, as well as the large-scale circulation and short-range forecasts. These studies suggest that assimilation of microwave rainfall observations from space has the potential to significantly improve the quality of 4-D assimilated datasets for climate investigations (Hou et al. 2001). In the next few years, there will be a gradual increase in microwave rain products available from operational and research satellites, culminating to a target constellation of 9 satellites to provide global rain measurements every 3 hours with the proposed Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission in 2007. Continued improvements in assimilation methodology, rainfall error estimates, and model parameterizations are needed to ensure that we derive maximum benefits from these observations.

Hou, Arthur Y.↗

Time-Variable Gravity from Space: Quarter Century of Observations, Mysteries, and Prospects

Any large mass transport in the Earth system produces changes in the gravity field. Via the space geodetic technique of satellite-laser ranging in the last quarter century, the Earth's dynamic oblateness J2 (the lowest-degree harmonic component of the gravity field) has been observed to undergo a slight decrease -- until around 1998, when it switched quite suddenly to an increase trend which has continued to date. The secular decrease in J2 has long been attributed primarily to the post-glacial rebound in the mantle; the present increase signifies an even larger change in global mass distribution whose J2 effect overshadows that of the post-glacial rebound, at least over interannual timescales. Intriguing evidences have been found in the ocean water distribution, especially in the extratropical Pacific basins, that may be responsible for this J2 change. New techniques based on satellite-to-satellite tracking will yield greatly improved observations for time-variable gravity, with much higher precision and spatial resolution (i.e., much higher harmonic degrees). The most important example is the GRACE mission launched in March 2002, following the success of the CHAMP mission. In addition, although less precise than GRACE, the GPS/Meteorology constellation mission COSMIC, with 6 mini-satellites to be launched in late 2005, is expected to provide continued and complementary time-variable gravity observations. Such observations are becoming a new and powerful tool for remote sensing of geophysical fluid processes that involve larger-scale mass transports.

Chao, Benjamin F.↗

On the Prospects of Measuring the Cosmic History of Element Synthesis with Future Far-IR/Submillimeter Observatories

To understand the cosmic history of element synthesis it will be important to obtain extinction-free measures of the heavy element contents of high-redshift objects and to chart two monumental events: the collapse of the first metal-free clouds to form stars, and the initial seeding of the universe with dust. The information needed to achieve these objectives is uniquely available in the far-infrared/submillimeter (FIR/SMM) spectral region. Following the Decadal Report and anticipating the development of the Single Aperature Far-IR (SAFIR) telescope capabilities of a large-aperature, background-limited FIR/SMM observatory and an interferometer on a boom, and discuss how such instruments could be used to measure the element synthesis history of the universe.

Leisawitz, David↗

Prospect of Using Numerical Dynamo Model for Prediction of Geomagnetic Secular Variation

Modeling of the Earth's core has reached a level of maturity to where the incorporation of observations into the simulations through data assimilation has become feasible. Data assimilation is a method by which observations of a system are combined with a model output (or forecast) to obtain a best guess of the state of the system, called the analysis. The analysis is then used as an initial condition for the next forecast. By doing assimilation, not only we shall be able to predict partially secular variation of the core field, we could also use observations to further our understanding of dynamical states in the Earth's core. One of the first steps in the development of an assimilation system is a comparison between the observations and the model solution. The highly turbulent nature of core dynamics, along with the absence of any regular external forcing and constraint (which occurs in atmospheric dynamics, for example) means that short time comparisons (approx. 1000 years) cannot be made between model and observations. In order to make sensible comparisons, a direct insertion assimilation method has been implemented. In this approach, magnetic field observations at the Earth's surface have been substituted into the numerical model, such that the ratio of the multiple components and the dipole component from observation is adjusted at the core-mantle boundary and extended to the interior of the core, while the total magnetic energy remains unchanged. This adjusted magnetic field is then used as the initial field for a new simulation. In this way, a time tugged simulation is created which can then be compared directly with observations. We present numerical solutions with and without data insertion and discuss their implications for the development of a more rigorous assimilation system.

Kuang, Weijia↗

Atmospheric Electrical Activity and the Prospects for Improving Short-Term, Weather Forcasting

How might lightning measurements be used to improve short-term (0-24 hr) weather forecasting? We examine this question under two different prediction strategies. These include integration of lightning data into short-term forecasts (nowcasts) of convective (including severe) weather hazards and the assimilation of lightning data into cloud-resolving numerical weather prediction models. In each strategy we define specific metrics of forecast improvement and a progress assessment. We also address the conventional observing system deficiencies and potential gap-filling information that can be addressed through the use of the lightning measurement.

Goodman, Steven J.↗

On the Determination of Local Sites for Shallow Ground Water Prospection Using Low Frequency Sounding Radars on Mars

Low frequency sounding radars should be able to probe the Martian subsurface layers down to varying depths, depending on the geo-electrical properties of the sounded sites. We present in this work four frequency dependent geo-electrical models of the Martian subsurface in the 1-20 MHz frequency band, based on laboratory electromagnetic characterization of Martian soil analogues. Those models correspond to local Martian sites, where we considered particular interest for the search of water using mainly the Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR) instrument of the Netlander mission. Results and discussion are also valid for both sounding experiments MARSIS and SHARAD. The four models of the Martian subsurface are designed to represent terrains where recent fluvial like features suggest the presence of near subsurface ground ice and probably liquid water. We performed measurements on volcanic and sedimentary materials that may be present on these sites under the appropriate geophysical conditions that may exist in those terrains. We then simulated the backscattered radar echo arising from each site in the 2 MHz frequency band, using the Finite Difference Time Domain (FDTD) algorithm, in order to evaluate the instrument performances to probe the subsurface stratigraphy of each site. Our results confirm that the near subsurface rich iron oxide mineralogy controls the instrument performances in terms of penetration depth and signal to noise ratio in the 2 MHz frequency band. We also discuss the geophysical and geo-electrical sounding conditions that could lead to an ambiguous detection of shallow subsurface water on Mars for the Netlander GPR. Finally we hope to present by the conference time a terrestrial test analogue site selected according to those creteria where deep sub-surface water have been detected 600 m deep using a prototype of the 2 MHz Netlander GPR in a field survey performed last febrary in the eastern part of the Egyptian desert.

Heggy, E.↗

Submillimeter and Far Infrared Experiment for SOFIA (SAFIRE): Progress and Prospects

SAFIRE/SOFIA is a versatile imaging Fabry-Perot spectrograph covering 100 less than lambda less than 655 microns, with spectral resolving power of approx. l0(exp 3). Selected as a "PI" instrument for the airborne Stratospheric Observatory for Infrared Astronomy (SOFIA), SAFIRE will apply two dimensional pop-up bolometer arrays to provide background limited imaging spectrometry. We describe the instrument design, its application to a range of astro- physical investigations, and current progress and results in the innovative detector and instrument design. SAFIRE/SOFIA is on track for availability in 2006.

Shafer, R. A.↗

Prospecting Jupiter in the Thermal Infrared: Temperatures and Dynamics

We present for the first time detailed maps of charged temperatures and winds in Jupiter's stratosphere, from infrared spectra acquired during the Cassini swingby of Jupiter. The maps reveal a high-altitude equatorial jet 1140 m s-', as strong as the cloud-top winds. It may result from wave forcing and be analogous to the quasi-biennial oscillation in the earth's stratosphere. The maps give the best characterization of the motions of stratospheric waves, and they better define the vertical penetration of the auroral hot spots into the stratosphere.

Flasar, F. M.↗

GMS-based"Future Time" Rainfall Data Assimilation for Mesoscale Weather Prediction over Korean Peninsula and Future Prospects with GPM Satellite Measurements

This study examines the use of satellite-derived nowcasted (short-term forecasted) rainfall over 3-hour time periods to gain an equivalent time increment in initializing a nonhydrostatic mesoscale model used for predicting convective rainfall events over the Korean peninsula. Infrared (IR) window measurements from the Japanese Geostationary Meteorological Satellite (GMS) are used to specify latent heating for a spinup period of the model - but in future time -- thus initializing in advance of actual time in the framework of a prediction scenario. The main scientific objective of the study is to investigate the strengths and weaknesses of this approach insofar as data assimilation, in which the nowcasted assimilation data are derived independently of the prognostic model itself. Although there have been various recent improvements in formulating the dynamics, thermodynamics, and microphysics of mesoscale models, as well as computer advances which allow the use of high resolution cloud-resolving grids and explicit latent heating over regional domains, spinup remains at the forefront of unresolved mesoscale modeling problems. In general, non-realistic spinup limits the skill in predicting the spatial-temporal distribution of convection and precipitation, primarily in the early hours of a. forecast, stemming from standard prognostic variables not representing the initial diabatic heating field produced by the ambient convection and cloud fields. The long-term goal of this research is to improve short-range (12-hour) quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF) over the Korean peninsula through the use of innovative data assimilation methods based on geosynchronous satellite measurements. As a step in th~s direction, a non-standard data assimilation experiment in conjunction with GMS-retrieved nowcasted rainfall information introduced to the mesoscale model is conducted. The 3-hourly precipitation forecast information is assimilated through nudging the associated diabatic heating during the early stages of a forecast period. This procedure is expected to enhance details in the moisture field during model integration, and thus improve spinup performance, assuming the errors in the future time latent heating data ate less than intrinsic model background errors.

Smith, Eric A.↗

Maghemite Formation via Organics and the Prospect for Maghemite as a Biomarker Mineral on Mars

One of the major questions on Mars is the origin of the magnetic component in the surface material. Our work on maghemite formation suggests that alteration of femhydrite in the presence of organics would provide a plausible formation scenario for this magnetic soil component and further suggests that maghemite might be an important biomarker mineral on Mars. Identification of biomarker minerals is an important aspect of Astrobiology . The iron oxide mineral maghemite is thought to be one of the magnetic components in the Martian surface material; however, it is a rare mineral on the Earth and requires a reducing agent for synthesis. Organic material serves as a reductant in maghemite formation during forest fires on Earth and may play an important role in maghemite formation on Mars through low-temperature heating (e.g., volcanism, impacts). This study involves analysis of magnetite, maghemite and hematite formation under Martian environmental conditions from femhydrite in the presence and absence of organics. A dehydrated version of the mineral femhydrite is thought to be present in Martian soil/dust grains and could have formed at an earlier time on Mars when water was present. Our work indicates that low-temperature alteration of femhydrite in the presence of organic material could be an important mechanism on Mars.

Bishop, Janice↗

Prospecting for Martian Ice from Orbit

Recent data from the Gamma-Ray Spectrometer (GRS) on Mars Odyssey indicate the presence of a hydrogen-rich layer tens of centimeters thick in high latitudes on Mars. This hydrogen-rich layer correlates to previously determined regions of ice stability. It has been suggested that the subsurface hydrogen is ice and constitutes 35 plus or minus 15% by weight near the north and south polar regions. This study constrains the location of subsurface ice deposits on the scale of kilometers or smaller by combining GRS data with surface features indicative of subsurface ice. The most recognizable terrestrial geomorphic indicators of subsurface ice, formed in permafrost and periglacial environments, include thermokarst pits, pingos, pseudocraters and patterned ground. Patterned ground features have geometric forms such as circles, polygons, stripes and nets. This study focuses on the polygonal form of patterned ground, selected for its discernable shape and subsurface implications. Polygonal features are typically demarcated by troughs, beneath which grow vertical ice-wedges. Ice-wedges form in thermal contraction cracks in ice-rich soil and grow with annual freezing and thawing events repeated over tens of years. Ice wedges exist below the depth of seasonal freeze-thaw. Terrestrial ice wedges can be several meters deep and polygons can be tens of meters apart, and, on rare occasions, up to 1 km. The crack spacing of terrestrial polygons is typically 3 to 10 times the crack depth.

Kanner, L. C.↗

Impacts and evolution: future prospects

The discipline of astrobiology includes the dynamics of biological evolution. One of the major ways that the cosmos influences life is through the catastrophic environmental disruptions caused when comets and asteroids collide with a planet. We now recognize that such impacts have caused mass extinctions and played a major role in determining the evolution of life on Earth. The time-averaged impact flux as a function of projectile energy can be derived from lunar cratering statistics as well as the current population of near Earth asteroids (NEAs). Effects of impacts of various energies can be modeled, using data from historic impacts [such as the Cretaceous-Tertiary (KT) impactor 65 million years ago] and the observed 1994 bombardment of Jupiter by fragments of Comet Shoemaker-Levy 9. It is of particular interest to find from such models that the terrestrial environment is highly vulnerable to perturbation from impacts, so that even such a small event as the KT impact (by a projectile 10-15 km in diameter) can lead to a mass extinction. Similar considerations allow us to model the effects of still smaller (and much more likely) impacts, down to the size of the asteroid that exploded over Tunguska in 1908 (energy approximately 10 megatons). Combining the impact flux with estimates of environmental and ecological effects reveals that the greatest contemporary hazard is associated with impactors near 1 million megatons in energy (approximately 2 km in diameter for an asteroid). The current impact hazard is significant relative to other natural hazards, and arguments can be developed to illuminate a variety of public policy issues. The first priority in any plan for defense against impactors is to survey the population of Earth-crossing NEAs and project their orbits forward in time. This is the purpose of the Spaceguard Survey, which has already found more than half of the NEAs >1 km in diameter. If there is an NEA on a collision course with Earth, it can be discovered and the impact predicted with decades or more of warning. It is then possible to consider how to deflect or disrupt the NEA. Unlike other natural hazards, the impact risk can be largely eliminated, given sufficient advanced knowledge to take action against the threatening projectile.

Directed Molecular Evolution↗

Artificial cells: prospects for biotechnology

A variety of techniques can now be used to alter the genome of a cell. Although these techniques are very powerful, they have limitations related to cost and efficiency of scale. Artificial cells designed for specific applications combine properties of biological systems such as nanoscale efficiency, self-organization and adaptability at relatively low cost. Individual components needed for such structures have already been developed, and now the main challenge is to integrate them in functional microscopic compartments. It will then become possible to design and construct communities of artificial cells that can perform different tasks related to therapeutic and diagnostic applications.

Review↗

Transmembrane transport of peptide type compounds: prospects for oral delivery

Synthesis and delivery of potential therapeutic peptides and peptidomimetic compounds has been the focus of intense research over the last 10 years. While it is widely recognized that numerous limitations apply to oral delivery of peptides, some of the limiting factors have been addressed and their mechanisms elucidated, which has lead to promising strategies. This article will briefly summarize the challenges, results and current approaches of oral peptide delivery and give some insight on future strategies. The barriers determining peptide bioavailability after oral administration are intestinal membrane permability, size limitations, intestinal and hepatic metabolism and in some cases solubility limitations. Poor membrane permeabilities of hydrophilic peptides might be overcome by structurally modifying the compounds, thus increasing their membrane partition characteristics and/or their affinity to carrier proteins. Another approach is the site-specific delivery of the peptide to the most permeable parts of the intestine. The current view on size limitation for oral drug delivery has neglected partition considerations. Recent studies suggest that compounds with a molecular weight up to 4000 might be significantly absorbed, assuming appropriate partition behavior and stability. Metabolism, probably the most significant factor in the absorption fate of peptides, might be controlled by coadministration of competitive enzyme inhibitors, structural modifications and administration of the compound as a well absorbed prodrug that is converted into the therapeutically active agent after its absorption. For some peptides poor solubility might present a limitation to oral absorption, an issue that has been addressed by mechanistically defining and therefore improving formulation parameters. Effective oral peptide delivery requires further development in understanding these complex mechanisms in order to maximize the therapeutic potential of this class of compounds.

NASA Discipline Regulatory Physiology↗

Experiments on plants grown in space. Status and prospects

Space flight provides a unique capability to gravitational research by providing an environment in which gravity can be manipulated below the Earth norm of 1 to a state comparable to weightlessness. Although space experiments with seeds and plants have been conducted for almost 25 years, we are only now entering an era that promises the capability of routinely conducting controlled plant experiments in space. Results from experiments with higher plants and seeds flown thus far in both manned and unmanned spacecraft from both the USA and USSR are briefly summarized. An overview of the current status of space biology experimentation as it relates to plants is presented and present and future opportunities to conduct plant experiments under space flight conditions are discussed.

Flight Experiment↗

Automated Portable Test (APT) System: overview and prospects

The Automated Portable Test (APT) System is a notebook-sized, computer-based, human-performance and subjective-status assessment system. It is now being used in a wide range of environmental studies (e.g., simulator aftereffects, flight tests, drug effects, and hypoxia). Three questionnaires and 15 performance tests have been implemented, and the adaptation of 30 more tests is underway or is planned. The APT System is easily transportable, is inexpensive, and has the breadth of expansion options required for field and laboratory applications. The APT System is a powerful and expandable tool for human assessment in remote and unusual environments.

Aerospace Medicine/instrumentation↗