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At least 829 records · Page 46
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Pro‐ L * ‐ A Probabilistic L * Mapping Tool for Ground Observations

Abstract Both ground and space observations are used extensively in the modeling of space weather processes within the Earth’s magnetosphere. In radiation belt physics modeling, one of the key phase‐space coordinates is L *, which indicates the location of the drift paths of energetic electrons. Global magnetic field models allow a subset of locations on the ground (mainly subauroral) to be mapped along field lines to a location in space and transformed into L *, provided that the initial ground location maps to a closed drift path. This allows observations from ground, or low‐altitude space‐based platforms to be mapped into space in order to inform radiation belt modeling. Many data‐based magnetic field models exist; however, these models can significantly disagree on mapped L * values for a single point on the ground, during both quiet times and storms. We present a state of the art probabilistic L * mapping tool, Pro‐ L *, which produces probability distributions for L * corresponding to a given ground location. Pro‐ L * has been calculated for a high resolution magnetic latitude by magnetic local time grid in the Earth’s Northern Hemisphere. We have developed the probabilistic model using 11 years of L * calculations for seven widely used magnetic field models. Usage of the tool is highlighted for both event studies and statistical models, and we demonstrate a number of potential applications.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Observed Relationships Between Cloud Droplet Effective Radius and Biogenic Gas Concentrations in Summertime Marine Stratocumulus Over the Eastern North Atlantic

Abstract Biogenic gases are a prominent component of the summertime marine boundary layer (MBL) over the Eastern North Atlantic. One of these gases, dimethyl sulfide (DMS), can produce sulfate cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) that, in theory, can brighten clouds through photolysis, and produces a reaction product, methane sulfonic acid (MSA). It is also possible that DMS can interact with sea‐salt or other marine aerosols changing their CCN activation spectrum, which could also modify cloud microphysical structure. Data collected aboard the G1 aircraft during the Aerosol Cloud Experiment Eastern North Atlantic (ACE‐ENA) in well‐mixed and decoupled marine boundary layers (MBLs) were used to examine relationships between the cloud droplet effective radii, , and the concentrations of DMS and MSA in constant cloud liquid water content (LWC) bins. A weak but statistically significant negative correlation was observed between CCN concentration and in most LWC bins, regardless of the source of the CCN, while a weak but statistically significant positive correlation between and DMS was observed. No correlation between the cloud droplet number concentration and DMS was found. The presence of MSA indicated that DMS‐to‐sulfate photolysis was likely occurring, but data sparsity prevented a statistically significant conclusion regarding the relationship between MSA and . Data sparsity in decoupled conditions also prevented statistically significant conclusions. To properly address biogenic gas impacts on cloud microphysics, it is recommended that aircraft data be supplemented by long‐term biogenic gas measurements at the surface in marine locations with appropriate remote and in‐situ cloud sensing capabilities, and the analysis limited to well‐mixed MBL's.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

High-Fidelity Analysis of ULF Wave Mode Structure Following Interplanetary Shock Compression of the Dayside Magnetopause Using MMS Multi-Point Observations

During the 9 March 2018 event with two consecutive interplanetary shocks compressing the dayside magnetosphere, the azimuthal mode structure and frequency spectrum of ultra low frequency magnetic pulsations are resolved using a cross-spectral analysis based on high-fidelity multi-probe Magnetospheric Multiscale Mission (MMS) magnetometer data. The results based on the MMS 4 and MMS 3 pair of measurements show that shock arrival leads to low mode (|m| ≤ 3) magnetic fluctuations in the Pc4-5 regimes, and smaller spatial scale fluctuations implied by the dominant high mode numbers are observed after both shock signatures hit and passed the magnetosphere. Detailed evolution of the mode structure is also shown for the first shock to reveal the development of high mode structure from a bump-on-tail distribution at m≈20 to a dominant peak at m≈50 in about 10 min. In addition, an interesting change of sign in m from negative to positive is observed as MMS crosses ~11 MLT pre-noon, which is consistent with the picture of wave generation by dayside magnetopause compression and then anti-sunward propagation. Finally, for both shocks, the contribution of higher frequency waves (Pc-4 range compared with Pc-5) to the total wave power is found to be negligible before and after the shock impact, but it becomes more significant during the shock impact.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Dairy Methane Emissions in California's San Joaquin Valley Inferred With Ground‐Based Remote Sensing Observations in the Summer and Winter

Abstract The dairy industry in the San Joaquin Valley (SJV) is one of California’s largest methane (CH 4 ) sources. Reducing dairy emissions is a priority for the state’s climate change plans. Observations of current dairy CH 4 emissions are key to monitoring actions taken toward this goal. To help support this, we present new ground‐based measurements of atmospheric column‐averaged CH 4 mixing ratio (XCH 4 ) gradients across a group of 600 dairies in the central SJV using EM27/SUN solar spectrometers. We used measurements from the 2019 summer and 2020 winter seasons for a top‐down emission inversion based on the WRF‐STILT model. Our top‐down estimates of the region’s dairy emissions range from 90% to 183% of the current CALGEM inventory’s emissions of 277 Gg/yr. In contrast to the strong temperature dependence found by earlier dairy CH 4 emission studies, we also find that our top‐down emissions during the winter measurement days are comparable to the summer measurement days, possibly due to seasonal changes in dairy management practices and meteorological conditions. Furthermore, we find significant interday variability in our measurements and find that our emission estimates overlap with earlier top‐down studies and bottom‐up inventories in this region. Our study demonstrates how analysis of ground‐based remotely sensed CH 4 gradient observations can help improve our understanding of CH 4 sources at scales relevant to mitigation policy. It also reflects the need for long‐term monitoring of CH 4 emissions in the region and at individual facilities to better understand their emissions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Southern Ocean Precipitation Characteristics Observed From CloudSat and Ground Instrumentation During the Macquarie Island Cloud & Radiation Experiment (MICRE): April 2016 to March 2017

A 1-year blended surface precipitation data set using Parsivel disdrometer, surface W-band radar, and tipping bucket measurements is produced for the Macquarie Island Cloud and Radiation Experiment (MICRE) and compared with retrievals from CloudSat (spaceborne 94 GHz radar). Surface precipitation was observed 44% ± 4% of the time between April 2016 and March 2017. Precipitation composed primarily of small particles (diameter <1 mm) occurred about 36% ± 2% of the time, constituting 10% of total accumulation. Remaining precipitation contained enough large particles such that the disdrometer could be used to identify the precipitation type as rain, ice, snow or wet snow. Seasonal and annual statistics on frequency of occurrence and accumulation for each precipitation type observed during MICRE are presented. Most ice and mixed phase precipitation was shallow, originating at a height of 3 km or lower, and occurred most often when Macquarie Island was to the northwest of the nearest cyclonic low-pressure center. In contrast, rain was more often deep and occurred most frequently when the island was to the southeast of cyclonic lows. A weak diurnal cycle in frequency and mean rate was present with a minimum between 12:00 and 14:00 local time and maximum between 03:00 and 06:00 local time. The CloudSat 2C-Precip-Column product missed the lightest precipitation (because the near-surface reflectivity is <-15 dBZ) and overestimated total liquid precipitation and occurrence of mixed phase precipitation, but captured reasonably well the distribution of rain rates for rates >0.5 mm/hr.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Observations Indicate That Clouds Amplify Mechanisms of Southern Ocean Heat Uptake

Abstract The Southern Ocean has absorbed most of the excess heat associated with anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Since Southern Ocean observations are sparse in certain regions and seasons, much of our knowledge of ocean heat uptake is based on climate model simulations. However, climate models still inadequately represent some properties of Southern Ocean clouds, and they have not identified the mechanisms by which clouds may affect Southern Ocean heat uptake (SOHU). Here, we use the ERA5 and JRA‐55 reanalyses to assess the influence of clouds and other atmospheric processes on SOHU from 1979 to 2020. We find that years with the highest SOHU between 45° and 65°S are dominated by ocean heat uptake anomalies during winter and spring, but not during summer or fall. Winter and spring cloud cover are up to 7% higher when SOHU is up to 5.5 W/m 2 higher than the climatological seasonal mean, with the largest increases in the South Pacific Ocean. Clouds also contain more liquid water. These changes in cloud properties increase downwelling longwave radiation, amplifying ocean heat uptake. Cloud changes are also concomitant with a more stable lower atmosphere, which suppresses turbulent heat fluxes out of the surface. Overall, we find that SOHU is likely not mediated by enhanced surface shortwave absorption over the observational time period. A better understanding of how atmospheric processes impact ocean heat uptake may help improve our understanding of ocean heat uptake mechanisms in the current generation of climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Topographically Scattered Infrasound Waves Observed on Microbarometer Arrays in the Lower Stratosphere

When an acoustic wave strikes a topographic feature, some of its energy is scattered. Sensors on the ground cannot capture these scattered signals when they propagate at high angles. We report observations of upwardly-scattered acoustic waves prior to refraction back to the ground, intercepting them with a set of balloon-borne infrasound microbarometers in the lower stratosphere over northern Sweden. We show that these scattered waves generate a coda whose presence can be related to topography beneath balloons and low-altitude acoustic ducts. The inclination of the coda signals changes systematically with time, as expected from waves arriving from scatterers successively closer to receivers. The codas are present when a temperature inversion channels infrasound from a set of ground chemical explosions along the ground, but are absent following the inversion's dissipation. Since scattering partitions energy away from the main arrival, these observations imply a mechanism of amplitude loss that had previously been inaccessible to measurement. As such, these data and results allow for a better comprehension of interactions between atmospheric infrasound propagation and the solid earth

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Wetter California Projected by CMIP6 Models With Observational Constraints Under a High GHG Emission Scenario

As the world's fifth-largest economy entity, California (CA) is vulnerable to climate changes especially the magnitude of winter (wet season) precipitation that is closely linked to regional drought severity, vegetation growth, and wildfire activities. However, the fate of CA precipitation in the future remains highly uncertain, for example, the state-of-the-art Earth system models (ESMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) projected –3% to +42% and –27% to +63% precipitation changes in northern and central-southern CA, respectively, under the high greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenario (SSP585). In this work, we applied the Pareto optimality concept and used observed teleconnection patterns (causal relationships between ocean regions and CA precipitation) to mechanistically constrain CMIP6 projected CA precipitations. We estimated that precipitation will robustly increase by 0.4–1.3 mm d –1 (10–34%) over northern CA and increase by 0.1–0.5 mm d –1 (7–32%) over central-southern CA by the end of the 21st century compared with present-day. Up to 71% of ESM projection uncertainties were reduced mainly due to the strong and consistent causal relationship between North American west coast sea level pressure and CA precipitation in both observations and CMIP6 models. Our results suggest that teleconnection patterns are powerful mechanistic constraints that can help explain and reduce uncertainties in ESM projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Plant-Soil Relationships Influence Observed Trends Between Manganese and Carbon Across Biomes

Manganese (Mn) is an essential plant micronutrient that plays a critical role in the litter decomposition by oxidizing and degrading complex organic molecules. Previous studies report a negative correlation between Mn concentrations and carbon (C) storage in organic horizons and suggest that high Mn concentrations in leaf litter reduce soil C storage in forest ecosystems, presumably by stimulating the oxidation of lignin by fungal enzymes. Yet, the relationship between Mn and C in the litter layer and organic soil remains poorly understood and restricted to a few biomes, hampering our ability to improve mechanistic understanding of soil C accumulation. Here, to examine plant-soil interactions that underlie observed relationships between Mn and C across a wide range of biomes, we extracted biogeochemical data reported for plants and soils from the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) database. We found that increased C and nitrogen (N) storage in organic horizons were associated with declines in Mn concentrations across diverse ecosystems at the continental scale, and this relationship was associated with the degree of organic matter decomposition (i.e., O i , O e , and O a ). Carbon and N stocks were more strongly correlated with Mn than with climatic variables (i.e., temperature and precipitation). Foliar Mn was strongly correlated with foliar lignin, and both these parameters increased with a decrease in soil pH, indicating links between soil pH, foliar chemistry, and litter decomposability. Our observations suggest that increased Mn bioavailability and accumulation in foliage under moderately acidic soil conditions support fungal decomposition of lignin-rich litter and contributes to lower soil C stocks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Important ice processes are missed by the Community Earth System Model (CESM) in Southern Ocean mixed–phase clouds: Bridging SOCRATES observations to model developments

Global climate models (GCMs) are challenged by difficulties in simulating cloud phase and cloud radiative effect over the Southern Ocean (SO). Some of the new generation GCMs predict too much liquid and too little ice in mixed-phase clouds. This misrepresentation of cloud phase in GCMs results in weaker negative cloud feedback over the SO and a higher climate sensitivity. Based on a model comparison with observational data obtained during the Southern Ocean Cloud Radiation and Aerosol Transport Experimental Study (SOCRATES), this study addresses a key uncertainty in the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) related to cloud phase, namely ice formation in pristine remote SO clouds. It is found that sea spray organic aerosols (SSOA) are the most important type of ice nucleating particles (INPs) over the SO with concentrations one order of magnitude higher than those of dust INPs based on measurements and CESM2 simulations. Secondary ice production (SIP) which includes riming splintering, rain droplet shattering, and ice-ice collisional fragmentation as implemented in CESM2 is the dominant ice production process in moderately cold clouds with cloud temperatures greater than –20°C. SIP enhances the in-cloud ice number concentrations (Ni) by 1-3 orders of magnitude and predicts more mixed-phase (with percentage occurrence increased from 15% to 21%), in better agreement with the observations. Finally, this study highlights the importance of accurately representing cloud phase over the pristine remote SO by considering the ice nucleation of SSOA and SIP processes, which are currently missing in most GCM cloud microphysics parameterizations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Wintertime synoptic patterns of midlatitude boundary layer clouds over the western North Atlantic: Climatology and insights from in-situ ACTIVATE observations

The winter synoptic evolution of the western North Atlantic and its influence on the atmospheric boundary layer is described by means of a regime classification based on Self Organizing Maps applied to 12 year of data (2009-2020). The regimes are classified into categories according to daily 600-hPa geopotential height: dominant ridge, trough to ridge eastward transition (trough-ridge), dominant trough, and ridge to trough eastward transition (ridge-trough). A fifth synoptic regime resembles the winter climatological mean. Coherent changes in sea-level pressure and large-scale winds are in concert with the synoptic regimes: 1) the ridge regime is associated with a well-developed anticyclone; 2) the trough-ridge gives rise to a low pressure center over the ocean, ascents, and northerly winds over the coastal zone; 3) trough is associated with the eastward displacement of a cyclone, coastal subsidence, and northerly winds, all representative characteristics of cold-air outbreaks; 4) the ridge-trough regime features the development of an anticyclone and weak coastal winds. Low clouds are characteristic of the trough regime, with both trough and trough-ridge featuring synoptic maxima in cloud droplet number concentration (N d ). The N d increase is primarily observed near the coast, concomitant with strong surface heat fluxes exceeding by more than 400 W m -2 compared to fluxes further east. Five consecutive days of aircraft observations collected during the ACTIVATE campaign corroborates the climatological characterization, confirming the occurrence of high N d for days identified as trough. This study emphasizes the role of boundary-layer dynamics and aerosol activation and their roles in modulating cloud microphysics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Three‐Dimensional Broadband Interferometric Mapping and Polarization (BIMAP‐3D) Observations of Lightning Discharge Processes

Abstract Following on our earlier single‐station, 2‐dimensional (2D) broadband interferometric mapping and polarization (BIMAP) observations of lightning discharges, we recently deployed two BIMAP stations at Los Alamos National Laboratory to map the lightning sources and their polarization in full 3‐dimensional (3D) space (BIMAP‐3D). The two stations are separated by 11.5‐km and each station consists of four antenna sets (instead of three for the original BIMAP) that form a Y ‐shaped array for improved interferometric performance. In this paper, we report the BIMAP‐3D system design, a generalized and analytical 2D interferometry technique for noncoplanar antenna array, a two‐stage 3D mapping technique based on geometric triangulation and baseline‐based differential time of arrival, and a technique to reconstruct the polarization orientation in 3D space by combining the 2D polarization results from the two‐station observations. Along with description of the techniques, we demonstrate and discuss the initial lightning results, including 3D maps for a hybrid intracloud and cloud‐to‐ground flash and for a normal intracloud flash, development of abnormal K‐change leaders, and polarization signatures for a K‐change leader. We find that with the two‐stage 3D mapping techniques, the sources can be located to meters accuracy for a favorable event that occurs between the two stations. We also find the polarization vectors for the example K leader are mostly orthogonal to the leader channel after the full 3D polarization analysis. The main purpose of this paper is to report the BIMAP‐3D techniques and capabilities. Detailed analysis of more specific discharge processes will be reported in later studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Impact of Seasonal Snow-Cover Change on the Observed and Simulated State of the Atmospheric Boundary Layer in a High-Altitude Mountain Valley

The structure and evolution of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) under clear-sky fair weather conditions over mountainous terrain is dominated by the diurnal cycle of the surface energy balance and thus strongly depends on surface snow cover. We use data from three passive ground-based infrared spectrometers deployed in the East River Valley in Colorado's Rocky Mountains to investigate the response of the thermal ABL structure to changes in surface energy balance during the seasonal transition from low to high snow cover. Temperature profiles were retrieved from the infrared radiances using the optimal estimation physical retrieval Tropospheric Remotely Observed Profiling via Optimal Estimation. A nocturnal surface inversion formed in the valley during clear-sky days, which was subsequently mixed out during daytime with the development of a convective boundary layer when snow cover was low. Over high snow cover, a very shallow convective boundary layer formed, above which the inversion persisted through the daytime hours. We compare these observations to NOAA's operational High-Resolution-Rapid-Refresh model and find large warm biases on clear-sky days resulting from the model's inability to form strong nocturnal inversions and to maintain the stable stratification in the valley during daytime when there was snow on the ground. We suggest several factors contributing to the large model errors. These are (a) the inability of the model to represent well-developed thermally driven flows likely due to the too coarse horizontal grid spacing (3 km), (b) too much convective mixing during daytime, and (c) too strong vertical coupling between the valley atmosphere and the free troposphere.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Ship-based Observations and Climate Model Simulations of Cloud Phase over the Southern Ocean

The Southern Ocean (SO) clouds exert a significant influence on the Earth’s radiation budget. Here we analyzed ship-based remote sensing observations of SO clouds over a five-month long DOE ARM Measurements of Aerosols, Radiation and Clouds over the Southern Oceans (MARCUS) field campaign to better understand cloud phase variability. We developed a method to classify eight categories of hydrometeors (ice, liquid, mixed phase, rain, drizzle, snow, aerosols, and clear sky) based on measurements of lidar, radar and radiosondes. Cloud thermodynamic phases (liquid, ice and mixed phase) at coarser scales were further derived to compare with the DOE Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SMv1) simulation and the Earth Model Column Collaboratory (EMC 2 ) instrument simulator. For a scale-aware comparison with climate model simulations, we found that spatially averaging the raw remote sensing data (e.g., backscatter, reflectivity) results in increased cloud cover and cloud liquid, whereas, directly averaging cloud phase from higher to lower resolution maintains clear air regions and is thus recommended for in-cloud frequency comparisons. For cloud thermodynamic phases in stratiform clouds, the E3SM underestimates cloud ice and overestimates cloud liquid at temperatures between -40 and 0°C. When latitudes increase, both observations and simulations show a transition of dominant phase from liquid to ice for cloud tops as well as for the entire cloud columns, but the model underestimation of ice phase is more severe at higher latitudes. Such model bias is unlikely caused by spatial scale differences or lack of heterogeneity in cloud vertical structure in the simulation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Insights Into Lightning K‐Leader Initiation and Development From Three Dimensional Broadband Interferometric Observations

Abstract We report detailed observations of K‐leaders and the activity between them with the three‐dimensional Broadband Interferometric Mapping and Polarization system (BIMAP‐3D) at Los Alamos National Laboratory. It is found that K‐leaders have a general propagation trend of initial acceleration and then gradual deceleration, and the corresponding very high frequency (VHF) radiation power is exponentially correlated with the leader speed. Based on the 3D development and simultaneous electric field change measurement, some simple K‐leaders can be modeled with time‐evolving point charges at the propagating leader tip and at the stationary origin. We found that the charge magnitude increases during the initial acceleration stage and stays relatively constant for the rest of the development. K‐leaders are observed to interact with other branches; the branches affect the leader's propagation speed, and may affect the charge transfer. After the occurrence of a K‐leader, VHF emissions are quenched for several milliseconds. VHF sources then reappear in an impulsive and scattered manner as “twinkling,” and these sources are found not uniquely on the so‐called needles, but also on the main channel. These twinkling sources start near the apparent positive leader tip, and extend back toward the direction of the flash origin at about 10 5 m/s, while the apparent positive tip continues to extend forward at about 10 4 m/s. The twinkling extending toward the direction of flash origin appears to initiate the following K‐leader, although it may be interrupted by a K‐leader along a different branch, or simply die out without more K‐leader activity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

High Values of the Arctic Amplification in the Early Decades of the 21st Century: Causes of Discrepancy by CMIP6 Models Between Observation and Simulation

Arctic Amplification (AA) in the first decade of the 21st century has reached values between 4 and 5, with a subsequent decrease to current values of about 3.6, while the value was from 2 to 3 during the twentieth century. The ensemble mean of the CMIP6 models has difficulty in reproducing the recently observed high values of the AA. In this report, we identify the main reason for this difficulty to be the CMIP6 models overestimate of the mean global temperature trend since about 1990. The largest values of the AA are observed in winter and spring. A sharp AA peak in 1987 spring was caused by a peak in the Arctic temperature trend occurring at the same time as a dip in the trend of mean global temperature. The winter AA has increased almost monotonically since 1990. Dividing the AA between the Arctic land and ocean areas shows that the ocean area makes a larger contribution to the AA. Our future projection of the AA suggests an increasing AA for about the next decade, followed by a slow decrease to about 3.5 in the 2050s.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Contributions From Cloud Morphological Changes to the Interannual Shortwave Cloud Feedback Based on MODIS and ISCCP Satellite Observations

The surface temperature-mediated change in cloud properties, referred to as the cloud feedback, continues to dominate the uncertainty in climate projections. A larger number of contemporary global climate models (GCMs) project a higher degree of warming than the previous generation of GCMs. This greater projected warming has been attributed to a less negative cloud feedback in the Southern Ocean. Here, we apply a novel “double decomposition method” that employs the “cloud radiative kernel” and “cloud regime” concepts, to two data sets of satellite observations to decompose the interannual cloud feedback into contributions arising from changes within and shifts between cloud morphologies. Our results show that contributions from the latter to the cloud feedback are large for certain regimes. We then focus on interpreting how both changes within and between cloud morphologies impact the shortwave cloud optical depth feedback over the Southern Ocean in light of additional observations. Results from the former cloud morphological changes reveal the importance of the wind response to warming increases low- and mid-level cloud optical thickness in the same region. Results from the latter cloud morphological changes reveal that a general shift from thick storm-track clouds to thinner oceanic low-level clouds contributes to a positive feedback over the Southern Ocean that is offset by shifts from thinner broken clouds to thicker mid- and low-level clouds. Our novel analysis can be applied to evaluate GCMs and potentially diagnose shortcomings pertaining to their physical parameterizations of particular cloud morphologies.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Estimating the CO 2 Fertilization Effect on Extratropical Forest Productivity From Flux‐Tower Observations

Abstract The land sink of anthropogenic carbon emissions, a crucial component of mitigating climate change, is primarily attributed to the CO 2 fertilization effect on global gross primary productivity (GPP). However, direct observational evidence of this effect remains scarce, hampered by challenges in disentangling the CO 2 fertilization effect from other long‐term confounding drivers, particularly climatic changes. Here, we introduce a novel statistical approach to separate the CO 2 fertilization effect on photosynthetic carbon uptake using eddy covariance (EC) records across 38 extratropical forest sites. We find the median stimulation rate of GPP to be 3.2 ± 0.9 gC m −2 yr −1 ppm −1 (or 16.4 ± 4.2% per 100 ppm) under increasing atmospheric CO 2 across these sites, respectively. To validate the robustness of our findings, we test our statistical method using factorial simulations of an ensemble of process‐based land surface models. We address additional factors, including nitrogen deposition and land management, that may impact plant productivity, potentially confounding the attribution to the CO 2 fertilization effect. Assuming these site‐specific effects offset to some extent across sites as random factors, the estimated median value still reflects the strength of the CO 2 fertilization effect. However, disentanglement of these long‐term effects, often inseparable by timescale, requires further causal research. Our study provides direct evidence that the photosynthetic stimulation is maintained under long‐term CO 2 fertilization across multiple EC sites. Such observation‐based quantification is key to constraining the long‐standing uncertainties in the land carbon cycle under rising CO 2 concentrations.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗