SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Natural Probabilities”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 829 records · Page 46

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

NASA NTRS1991

How far we are from the complete knowledge: Complexity of knowledge acquisition in Dempster-Shafer approach

When a knowledge base represents the experts' uncertainty, then it is reasonable to ask how far we are from the complete knowledge, that is, how many more questions do we have to ask (to these experts, to nature by means of experimenting, etc) in order to attain the complete knowledge. Of course, since we do not know what the real world is, we cannot get the precise number of questions from the very beginning: it is quite possible, for example, that we ask the right question first and thus guess the real state of the world after the first question. So we have to estimate this number and use this estimate as a natural measure of completeness for a given knowledge base. We give such estimates for Dempster-Shafer formalism. Namely, we show that this average number of questions can be obtained by solving a simple mathematical optimization problem. In principle this characteristic is not always sufficient to express the fact that sometimes we have more knowledge. For example, it has the same value if we have an event with two possible outcomes and nothing else is known, and if there is an additional knowledge that the probability of every outcome is 0.5. We'll show that from the practical viewpoint this is not a problem, because the difference between the necessary number of questions in both cases is practically negligible.

Chokr, Bassam A.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Impact of Non-Gaussian Error Volumes on Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis

An understanding of how an initially Gaussian error volume becomes non-Gaussian over time is an important consideration for space-vehicle conjunction assessment. Traditional assumptions applied to the error volume artificially suppress the true non-Gaussian nature of the space-vehicle position uncertainties. For typical conjunction assessment objects, representation of the error volume by a state error covariance matrix in a Cartesian reference frame is a more significant limitation than is the assumption of linearized dynamics for propagating the error volume. In this study, the impact of each assumption is examined and isolated for each point in the volume. Limitations arising from representing the error volume in a Cartesian reference frame is corrected by employing a Monte Carlo approach to probability of collision (Pc), using equinoctial samples from the Cartesian position covariance at the time of closest approach (TCA) between the pair of space objects. A set of actual, higher risk (Pc >= 10 (exp -4)+) conjunction events in various low-Earth orbits using Monte Carlo methods are analyzed. The impact of non-Gaussian error volumes on Pc for these cases is minimal, even when the deviation from a Gaussian distribution is significant.

Ghrist, Richard W.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Contribution of Anthropogenic Warming to California Drought During 2012-2014

A suite of climate data sets and multiple representations of atmospheric moisture demand are used to calculate many estimates of the self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index, a proxy for near-surface soil moisture, across California from 1901 to 2014 at high spatial resolution. Based on the ensemble of calculations, California drought conditions were record breaking in 2014, but probably not record breaking in 2012-2014, contrary to prior findings. Regionally, the 2012-2014 drought was record breaking in the agriculturally important southern Central Valley and highly populated coastal areas. Contributions of individual climate variables to recent drought are also examined, including the temperature component associated with anthropogenic warming. Precipitation is the primary driver of drought variability but anthropogenic warming is estimated to have accounted for 8-27 percent of the observed drought anomaly in 2012-2014 and 5-18 percent in 2014. Although natural variability dominates, anthropogenic warming has substantially increased the overall likelihood of extreme California droughts.

California↗

NASA NTRS2017

A New Type of Foreign Clast in A Polymict Ureilite: A CAI or AL-Rich Chondrule

Introduction: Polymict ureilites are breccias interpreted to represent regolith formed on a ureilitic asteroid [1-3]. They consist of approximately 90-95% clasts of various ureilite types (olivine-pyroxene rocks with Fo 75-95), a few % indigenous feldspathic clasts, and a few % foreign clasts [4-20]. The foreign clasts are diverse, including fragments of H, L, LL and R chondrites, angrites, other achondrites, and dark clasts similar to CC [6,7,9-19]. We report a new type of foreign clast in polymict ureilite DaG 999. Methods: Clast 8 in Dar al Gani (DaG) 999/1 (Museum fur Naturkunde) was discovered during a survey of feldspathic clasts in polymict ureilites [19,20]. It was studied by BEI, EMPA, and X-ray mapping on the JEOL 8530F electron microprobe at ARES, JSC. Petrography and Mineral Compositions: Clast 8 is sub-rounded to irregular in shape, approximately 85 micrometers in diameter, and consists of approximately 68% pyroxene and 32% mesostasis (by area). Part of the pyroxene (top half of clast in Fig. 1a and 2) shows a coarse dendritic morphology; the rest appears massive. Mesostasis may be glassy and contains fine needles/grains of pyroxene. The pyroxene has very high CaO (23.5 wt.%) and Al2O3 (19.7 wt.%), with the formula: (Ca(0.91)Mg(0.63)Fe(0.01)Al(sup VI) (0.38)Cr(0.01)Ti(0.05)1.99 Si2O6. The bulk mesostasis also has very high Al2O3 (approximately 26 wt.%). A bulk composition for the clast was obtained by combining modal abundances with phase compositions (Table 1, Fig. 3). Discussion: The pyroxene in clast 8 has a Ca-Al-(Ti)- rich (fassaitic) composition that is clearly distinct from compositions of pyroxenes in main group ureilites [22] or indigenous feldspathic clasts in polymict ureilites [4-8]. It also has significantly higher Al than fassaite in angrites (up to approximately 12 wt.% [23]), which occur as xenoliths in polymict ureilites. Ca-Al-Ti rich pyroxenes are most commonly found in CAIs, Al-rich chondrules and other types of refractory inclusions in chondrites [21,24-31]. However, the clast 8 pyroxene matches only the most Al-Ca-rich of these, e.g., pyroxenes in type B CAIs in CV3 chondrites [25,30,31], a pyroxene-hibonite spherule and a pyroxene-anorthitespinel fragment from unique CC Acfer 094 [29], and one Al-rich chondrule from Chainpur (LL3.4) [21]. The mineralogy of clast 8 is not consistent with the mineral assemblages of any of these objects (since it lacks hibonite, spinel and/or anorthite), which suggests that it is unrepresentatively sectioned or is a fragment of a more mineralogically diverse object. Its bulk composition (Table 1; Fig. 3) is similar to bulk compositions of some Al-rich chondrules, as well as those of Type C CAIs (which plot in the sp+An+L field in Fig. 3), although it is enriched in silica relative to type C CAIs [e.g., 31]. This suggests a more likely affinity to Al-rich chondrules, although most Al-rich chondrules have less Al-Ca-rich pyroxene [21,26,27]. These bulk compositional comparisons may not be definitive, however, if the clast is unrepresentatively sampled. One of eleven Al-rich chondrules from UOCs described by [21] has textural and compositional characteristics that make it a possible progenitor type for clast 8. This chondrule (Chainpur 1251-14-2) is anorthiteporphyritic, with an interstitial dendritic intergrowth of pyroxene (similar in composition to that in clast 8) and plagioclase [21]. Clast 8 is conceivably a fragment from the interstitial area of such an object. The occurrence of glassy mesostasis (in clast 8) rather than plagioclase may not be a significant difference; it could result from a difference only in cooling rate. Al-rich chondrules with glassy mesostasis are rare, and known occurrences are Ca-poor [26], unlike clast 8. Polymict ureilites are known to contain xenoliths of various chondrites (including OC, R and CC) as well as individual ferromagnesian and silica-pyroxene chondrules probably derived from OC or RC [6,9,15,16,18]. This is the first report of an individual chondritic refractory inclusion as a xenolith in a polymict ureilite. An RC-like sample from anomalous polymict ureilite Almahata Sitta contains CAIs, but they are spinel-rich and not similar to clast 8 [13,14]. Further studies of this clast (which, unfortunately, may not be possible), or the discovery of additional (more representative?) materials of this type would be needed to determine the exact nature of this xenolith and the type of chondrite from which it is derived.

Goodrich, C. A.↗

NASA NTRS1994

SN 1994I in M51 and the nature of type Ibc supernovae

Early spectra of SN 1994I in M51 (NGC 5194) are presented along with arguments that is a member of the class of helium-poor Type Ic supernovae. The issue of H and He in the spectra of Type Ib and Ic events is reexamined with the conclusion that Type Ib eject substantially less H than even transition events like SN 1993J and that Type Ic eject substantially less He than Type Ib and their optical spectra are consistent with no H or He. Type Ic show and absorption of the Si II lambda 6355 blend that characterizes Type Ia. This feature requires only a solar abundance of Si. Some Type Ic show an absorption that is probably C II lambda 6580. IR spectra are presented of SN 1990W which show the line of He I lambda 10830. The strength of this feature and the rather slow decay of the late time light curve suggest that this event could be better classified as a Type Ib. Even if trace abundances of H are present in Type Ib and of He in Type Ic the spectral differences still imply a distinctly different evolution for the progenitors of Type Ib from Type Ic and events like SN 1993J.

Wheeler, J. C.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Modeling q 95 windows for the suppression of edge localized modes by resonant magnetic perturbations in the DIII-D tokamak

A toroidal asymptotic matching model of the response of a tokamak plasma to a static resonant magnetic perturbation (RMP) is used to simulate the n = 3 RMP-induced edge-localized-mode-suppression windows in q 95 that are evident when the plasma current is slowly ramped in DIII-D discharge #145380. All quantities employed in the simulation are derived from experimental measurements, apart from the neutral particle data. Three cases are considered. In the first case, the natural frequencies of tearing modes resonant in the plasma are determined by the ion flows at the corresponding resonant surfaces, which is the prediction of nonlinear tearing mode theory. In the second case, the natural frequencies are determined by the local E x B velocities at the resonant surfaces. In the third case, the natural frequencies are determined by the electron flows at the resonant surfaces, which is the prediction of linear tearing mode theory. The second case gives the best agreement between the simulations and the experimental observations. The first and third cases only lead to partial agreement between the simulations and the observations. In the first case, the lack of complete agreement may be a consequence of using an inaccurate assumption for the neutral particle distribution in the pedestal. In the third case, the lack of complete agreement is probably due to the fact that the response of a tokamak plasma to an RMP is not accurately described by linear tearing mode theory.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

NASA NTRS1982

Photometry of resolved galaxies. I - The Pegasus dwarf irregular

Color-magnitude diagrams for resolved stars in the Pegasus dwarf galaxy in the green, red, and infrared passbands of the extended Gunn photometric system are presented. The evolved nature of the upper main sequence and the lack of luminous red supergiants indicate that recent star formation in Pegasus has been very subdued. Three star clusters are identified. Their red colors indicate they are of intermediate age or older. Two features of the color-magnitude diagrams are of interest: a group of red stars with I at about 21.3, which may be the counterparts of the carbon stars found in the Magellanic Clouds, and a clump in the (I, R-I)-diagram, which is probably the tip of the old giant branch. A provisional distance estimate for Pegasus of 1.7 Mpc is derived, placing it at the outer margins of the Local Group.

Hoessel, J. G.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Homogeneous versus heterogeneous crystal nucleation in Li2O-2SiO2 glass

When analyzing crystal nucleation in glasses, it is difficult to distinguish between homogeneous and heterogeneous nucleation. A method is proposed to investigate the nature of crystal nucleation in Li2O-2SiO2, and calculations are performed to determine under which conditions saturation effects help ascertain the nature of the nucleation. The capability of detecting impurity particles in unheated glass via standard micrographic techniques (SEM or REM) and small angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) is explored. Results indicate that if the maximum impurity particle densities do not exceed 2 x 10 to the 7th per cu cm then heterogeneous nucleation may be excluded and most impurity particles with densities in excess of 10 to the 10th per cu cm are detectable by SAXS. It is concluded that crystal nucleation in this system most probably occurs homogeneously.

Weinberg, M. C.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Does the Bushveld-Vredefort system (South Africa) record the largest known terrestrial impact catastrophe?

The unique 2.05-Ga Bushveld and Vredefort complexes cover 100,000 sq km (diameter 400 km) on the otherwise stable Kaapvaal craton. Since the 1920's, workers have recognized that they are bracketed by the same units and were probably formed by related processes. Modern field studies and radiometric dates have provided no compelling evidence for different ages. Previous researchers invoked magmatic upthrust. Daly later attributed Vredefort to impact, but never applied his concept to the Bushveld. Subsequently, Vredefort yielded shatter cones, coesite and stishovite, and planar features; pseudotachylite (indistinguishable from Sudbury) was long known to be present. Other research concluded that at least four simultaneous impacts caused the Bushveld-Vredefort system. Three impacts formed overlapping Bushveld basins; the fourth made the Vredefort dome. The nature of intra-Bushveld 'fragments' and the properties of Rooiberg Felsite offer clues.

Elston, W. E.↗

NASA NTRS2002

A Rewriting-Based Approach to Trace Analysis

We present a rewriting-based algorithm for efficiently evaluating future time Linear Temporal Logic (LTL) formulae on finite execution traces online. While the standard models of LTL are infinite traces, finite traces appear naturally when testing and/or monitoring red applications that only run for limited time periods. The presented algorithm is implemented in the Maude executable specification language and essentially consists of a set of equations establishing an executable semantics of LTL using a simple formula transforming approach. The algorithm is further improved to build automata on-the-fly from formulae, using memoization. The result is a very efficient and small Maude program that can be used to monitor program executions. We furthermore present an alternative algorithm for synthesizing probably minimal observer finite state machines (or automata) from LTL formulae, which can be used to analyze execution traces without the need for a rewriting system, and can hence be used by observers written in conventional programming languages. The presented work is part of an ambitious runtime verification and monitoring project at NASA Ames, called PATHEXPLORER, and demonstrates that rewriting can be a tractable and attractive means for experimenting and implementing program monitoring logics.

Havelund, Klaus↗

NASA NTRS2008

Tensile Creep and Fatigue of Sylramic-iBN Melt-Infiltrated SiC Matrix Composites: Retained Properties, Damage Development, and Failure Mechanisms

An understanding of the elevated temperature tensile creep, fatigue, rupture, and retained properties of ceramic matrix composites (CMC) envisioned for use in gas turbine engine applications are essential for component design and life-prediction. In order to quantify the effect of stress, time, temperature, and oxidation for a state-of-the-art composite system, a wide variety of tensile creep, dwell fatigue, and cyclic fatigue experiments were performed in air at 1204 C for the SiC/SiC CMC system consisting of Sylramic-iBN SiC fibers, BN fiber interphase coating, and slurry-cast melt-infiltrated (MI) SiC-based matrix. Tests were either taken to failure or interrupted. Interrupted tests were then mechanically tested at room temperature to determine the residual properties. The retained properties of most of the composites subjected to tensile creep or fatigue were usually within 20% of the as-produced strength and 10% of the as-produced elastic modulus. It was observed that during creep, residual stresses in the composite are altered to some extent which results in an increased compressive stress in the matrix upon cooling and a subsequent increased stress required to form matrix cracks. Microscopy of polished sections and the fracture surfaces of specimens which failed during stressed-oxidation or after the room-temperature retained property test was performed on some of the specimens in order to quantify the nature and extent of damage accumulation that occurred during the test. It was discovered that the distribution of stress-dependent matrix cracking at 1204 C was similar to the as-produced composites at room temperature; however, matrix crack growth occurred over time and typically did not appear to propagate through thickness except at final failure crack. Failure of the composites was due to either oxidation-induced unbridged crack growth, which dominated the higher stress regime (> 179 MPa) or controlled by degradation of the fibers, probably caused by intrinsic creep-induced flaw growth of the fibers or internal attack of the fibers via Si diffusion through the CVI SiC and/or microcracks at the lower stress regime (< 165 MPa).

Morscher, Greg↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Development of a Comprehensive Physics-Based Model for Study of NASA Gateway Lunar Dust Contamination

NASA is committed to landing the first woman and first person of color on the Moon by 2025 to begin a sustaining presence. A major component of this mission is NASA’s orbiting lunar outpost, Gateway, that will be subjected to the harsh environment of space during its 7-day orbit around the Moon. One aspect of this environment that is not well quantified is microscopic lunar regolith particles, or simply, lunar dust. As Apollo 17 Mission Commander Eugene Cernan said, “I think dust is probably one of our greatest inhibitors to a nominal operation on the moon. I think we can overcome other physiological or physical or mechanical problems except dust” [1]. These dust particles, most of which are smaller than the width of two human hairs and of highly irregular shape, are composed mainly of dielectric materials. Such characteristics can allow the dust particles to collect electric charge from the surrounding environment, resulting in electrostatic interactions between the dust, electromagnetic fields, and electrically charged surfaces [2-3]. Due to the nature of these fields, dust can collect on and contaminate charged surfaces. Lunar dust introduced into the Gateway environment by a lunar ascent vehicle element returning from the surface of the Moon presents risks to Gateway hardware such as radiators, solar arrays, antennae, and docking mechanisms. To quantify this risk and inform NASA, International Partner, and Commercial Provider stakeholders, Booz Allen, in partnership with NASA, is developing a toolset to model the interaction of charged lunar dust particles with the cis-lunar and deep-space environments. This includes a comprehensive physics model of the space plasma and solar radiation environment and electromagnetic interaction of spacecraft and lunar dust. Spacecraft charging and plasma environment are solved using the open-source code from The French Aerospace Lab (ONERA) and the European Space Agency (ESA), known as Spacecraft Plasma Interaction Software (SPIS) [4]. The physics of particle charging and motion is handled by a time-dependent implementation of Orbital-Motion-Limited (OML) theory which accounts for plasma flows and positive potential grains [5-7], using Siemens STAR-CCM+ as the framework. Model validation includes lab experiments by NASA experts and academia, as well as future on-orbit dust detecting payloads on the exterior of Gateway and Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) missions to the lunar surface [7-9]. The results and analyses will inform Gateway Program system owners at risk for lunar dust contamination.

Complex Plasma↗

DOE OSTI2023

Data assimilation in operator algebras

We develop an algebraic framework for sequential data assimilation of partially observed dynamical systems. In this framework, Bayesian data assimilation is embedded in a nonabelian operator algebra, which provides a representation of observables by multiplication operators and probability densities by density operators (quantum states). In the algebraic approach, the forecast step of data assimilation is represented by a quantum operation induced by the Koopman operator of the dynamical system. Moreover, the analysis step is described by a quantum effect, which generalizes the Bayesian observational update rule. Projecting this formulation to finite-dimensional matrix algebras leads to computational schemes that are i) automatically positivity-preserving and ii) amenable to consistent data-driven approximation using kernel methods for machine learning. Moreover, these methods are natural candidates for implementation on quantum computers. Applications to the Lorenz 96 multiscale system and the El Niño Southern Oscillation in a climate model show promising results in terms of forecast skill and uncertainty quantification.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Scattering using real-time path integrals

Background: Path integrals are a powerful tool for solving problems in quantum theory that are not amenable to a treatment by perturbation theory. Most path integral computations require an analytic continuation to imaginary time. While imaginary time treatments of scattering are possible, imaginary time is not a natural framework for treating scattering problems. More importantly, quantum algorithms for calculating path integrals require real-time evolution. Purpose: Here, we test a recently introduced method for performing direct calculations of scattering observables using real-time path integrals in order to understand the challenges facing real-time path integral calculations of scattering observables. Method: The computations are based on a new interpretation of the path integral as the expectation value of a potential functional on cylinder sets of continuous paths with respect to a complex probability distribution. The method can in principle be applied to arbitrary short-range potentials. Results: The method is applied to compute matrix elements of Møller wave operators applied to narrow wave packets. These are used to calculate half-shell sharp-momentum transition matrix elements for one-dimensional potential scattering. The calculations for half-shell transition operator matrix elements converge to the numerical solution of the Lippmann-Schwinger equation. Conclusions: This work presents a proof in principle that scattering observables can be computed using real-time Feynman path integrals. While the computational method is not efficient, it can be improved. It provides a laboratory for studying quantum computational algorithms that are applicable to scattering problems.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1972

Nature of the secondary component of beta Lyrae.

Development of a hypothesis concerning the nature of the secondary component of beta Lyrae which is regarded as more plausible than the suggestion that this component is a black hole. Adopting Huang's (1962) and Woolf's (1965) basic model for beta Lyrae, it is suggested that the secondary star may be a massive 'main-sequence' star in rapid, nonuniform motion. Certain findings regarding mu Sco and V356 Sgr, which have primaries that are very cool and underluminous for their masses, are cited as evidence for such an inference, since their underluminosity is probably due to high angular momentum and they are normal enough not to be suspected of harboring a black hole.

Stothers, R.↗

NASA NTRS1974

Biological modulation of the earth's atmosphere

Review of the evidence that the earth's atmosphere is regulated by life on the surface so that the probability of growth of the entire biosphere is maximized. Acidity, gas composition including oxygen level, and ambient temperature are enormously important determinants for the distribution of life. The earth's atmosphere deviates greatly from that of the other terrestrial planets in particular with respect to acidity, composition, redox potential and temperature history as predicted from solar luminosity. These deviations from predicted steady state conditions have apparently persisted over millions of years. These anomalies may be evidence for a complex planet-wide homeostasis that is the product of natural selection. Possible homeostatic mechanisms that may be further investigated by both theoretical and experimental methods are suggested.

Margulis, L.↗

NASA NTRS1978

Variation of fan tone steadiness for several inflow conditions

An amplitude probability density function analysis technique for quantifying the degree of fan noise tone steadiness has been applied to data from a fan tested under a variety of inflow conditions. The test conditions included typical static operation, inflow control by a honeycomb/screen device and forward velocity in a wind tunnel simulating flight. The ratio of mean square sinusoidal-to-random signal content in the fundamental and second harmonic tones was found to vary by more than an order-of-magnitude. Some implications of these results concerning the nature of fan noise generation mechanisms are discussed.

Balombin, J. R.↗

NASA NTRS1978

Variation of fan tone steadiness for several inflow conditions

Balombin, J. R.↗