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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Basement Fault Activation before Larger Earthquakes in Oklahoma and Kansas

Oklahoma and Kansas experienced unprecedented seismic activity over the past decade due to earthquakes associated with unconventional hydrocarbon development. The modest natural seismicity and incomplete knowledge of the fault network in the region made it difficult to anticipate the locations of earthquakes with larger magnitudes (M w ≥ 4). Here, we show that monitoring of microearthquakes at regional scale using a pretrained neural phase picker and an earthquake relocation algorithm can illuminate unknown fault structures, and deliver information that can be synthesized for earthquake forecasting. We found that 80% of the larger earthquakes that occurred in the past decade could have been anticipated based on the spatial extent of the seismicity clusters that were formed before these earthquakes occurred. We also found that once a seismicity cluster with a length scale enough to host a larger earthquake was formed, there was a ~5% chance that it would host one or more larger earthquakes within a year. This probability is nearly an order of magnitude higher than one based on Gutenberg–Richter statistics and preceding seismicity. Applying our approach in practice can provide critical information on seismic hazards for risk management and regulatory decision making.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1993

Reclamation with Recovery of Radionuclides and Toxic Metals from Contaminated Materials, Soils, and Wastes

A process has been developed at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) for the removal of metals and radionuclides from contaminated materials, soils, and waste sites. In this process, citric acid, a naturally occurring organic complexing agent, is used to extract metals such as Ba, Cd, Cr, Ni, Zn, and radionuclides Co, Sr, Th, and U from solid wastes by formation of water soluble, metal-citrate complexes. Citric acid forms different types of complexes with the transition metals and actinides, and may involve formation of a bidentate, tridentate, binuclear, or polynuclear complex species. The extract containing radionuclide/metal complex is then subjected to microbiological degradation followed by photochemical degradation under aerobic conditions. Several metal citrate complexes are biodegraded, and the metals are recovered in a concentrated form with the bacterial biomass. Uranium forms binuclear complex with citric acid and is not biodegraded. The supernatant containing uranium citrate complex is separated and upon exposure to light, undergoes rapid degradation resulting in the formation of an insoluble, stable polymeric form of uranium. Uranium is recovered as a precipitate (polyuranate) in a concentrated form for recycling or for appropriate disposal. This treatment process, unlike others which use caustic reagents, does not create additional hazardous wastes for disposal and causes little damage to soil which can then be returned to normal use.

Francis, A. J.↗
NASA NTRS2019

A Comparison of Two Terminal Area Detect and Avoid Well Clear Definitions

Technical requirements are currently under development for a detect and avoid system (DAA) that would support the operation of Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) within the National Airspace System (NAS). Such a system would aid UAS operators in maintaining sufficient separation, or "well clear", from other aircraft in their vicinity. The first set of technical standards for a UAS DAA system (referred to as "Phase 1" requirements) was limited to UAS operations transiting through Class D, E, and G airspace to, or from, Class A (or special-use) airspace. Explicitly out of scope of the Phase 1 requirements was the operation of UAS within terminal airspace in the NAS. Fern, Rorie, Roberts and Monk (2018) explored the application of a Phase 1 DAA system within Class D terminal airspace in a human-in-the-loop simulation. The results of the study demonstrated a poor fit of the Phase 1 DAA well clear (DWC) definition to these terminal operations. The original DWC definition was designed for the en-route environment and could not account for the complex, tightly-choreographed nature of traffic typically found near an airport. The interaction of the en-route DWC definition and the terminal area traffic led to excessive DAA alerting against safely-separated traffic. The frequent alerting quickly degraded pilots' ability to discriminate between encounters where a maneuver was or was not necessary. This resulted in slower response times, higher rates of losses of DAA well clear, and more severe losses of DAA well clear than had been observed in previous DAA research (e.g., Rorie et al., 2017). The current paper reports on a follow-on study to Fern et al. (2018) that tested two DWC definitions designed to accommodate standard terminal area operating procedures, such as traffic in the downwind leg of a VFR traffic pattern while the UAS is on final. The two definitions utilized identical horizontal and vertical thresholds but differed in whether or not Tau (a function that takes into account the closure rate of two aircraft) was included as a part of the DWC hazard zone. The "Tau" DWC candidate definition nominally extended the DWC hazard zone by 15 seconds in the direction of the intruder aircraft, while the "No Tau" DWC candidate definition did not extend the DWC hazard zone. The results of this follow-on study indicated that both candidate definitions improved pilot and DAA system performance relative to Fern et al (2018). Pilot response times and rates of losses of DWC returned to levels comparable to earlier research in the en-route environment. Several important differences between the two DWC candidate definitions, however, are also discussed.

Terminal Area↗
NASA NTRS2011

Probabilistic Risk Assessment Procedures Guide for NASA Managers and Practitioners (Second Edition)

Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a comprehensive, structured, and logical analysis method aimed at identifying and assessing risks in complex technological systems for the purpose of cost-effectively improving their safety and performance. NASA's objective is to better understand and effectively manage risk, and thus more effectively ensure mission and programmatic success, and to achieve and maintain high safety standards at NASA. NASA intends to use risk assessment in its programs and projects to support optimal management decision making for the improvement of safety and program performance. In addition to using quantitative/probabilistic risk assessment to improve safety and enhance the safety decision process, NASA has incorporated quantitative risk assessment into its system safety assessment process, which until now has relied primarily on a qualitative representation of risk. Also, NASA has recently adopted the Risk-Informed Decision Making (RIDM) process [1-1] as a valuable addition to supplement existing deterministic and experience-based engineering methods and tools. Over the years, NASA has been a leader in most of the technologies it has employed in its programs. One would think that PRA should be no exception. In fact, it would be natural for NASA to be a leader in PRA because, as a technology pioneer, NASA uses risk assessment and management implicitly or explicitly on a daily basis. NASA has probabilistic safety requirements (thresholds and goals) for crew transportation system missions to the International Space Station (ISS) [1-2]. NASA intends to have probabilistic requirements for any new human spaceflight transportation system acquisition. Methods to perform risk and reliability assessment in the early 1960s originated in U.S. aerospace and missile programs. Fault tree analysis (FTA) is an example. It would have been a reasonable extrapolation to expect that NASA would also become the world leader in the application of PRA. That was, however, not to happen. Early in the Apollo program, estimates of the probability for a successful roundtrip human mission to the moon yielded disappointingly low (and suspect) values and NASA became discouraged from further performing quantitative risk analyses until some two decades later when the methods were more refined, rigorous, and repeatable. Instead, NASA decided to rely primarily on the Hazard Analysis (HA) and Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) methods for system safety assessment.

Stamatelatos,Michael↗
NASA NTRS2017

Protecting the Health of Astronauts: Enhancing Occupational Health Monitoring and Surveillance for Former NASA Astronauts to Understand Long-Term Outcomes of Spaceflight-Related Exposures

The astronaut community is unique, and may be disproportionately exposed to occupational hazards not commonly seen in other communities. The extent to which the demands of the astronaut occupation and exposure to spaceflight-related hazards affect the health of the astronaut population over the life course is not completely known. A better understanding of the individual, population, and mission impacts of astronaut occupational exposures is critical to providing clinical care, targeting occupational surveillance efforts, and planning for future space exploration. The ability to characterize the risk of latent health conditions is a significant component of this understanding. Provision of health screening services to active and former astronauts ensures individual, mission, and community health and safety. Currently, the NASA-Johnson Space Center (JSC) Flight Medicine Clinic (FMC) provides extensive medical monitoring to active astronauts throughout their careers. Upon retirement, astronauts may voluntarily return to the JSC FMC for an annual preventive exam. However, current retiree monitoring includes only selected screening tests, representing an opportunity for augmentation. The potential long-term health effects of spaceflight demand an expanded framework of testing for former astronauts. The need is two-fold: screening tests widely recommended for other aging populations are necessary to rule out conditions resulting from the natural aging process (e.g., colonoscopy, mammography); and expanded monitoring will increase NASA's ability to better characterize conditions resulting from astronaut occupational exposures. To meet this need, NASA has begun an extensive exploration of the overall approach, cost, and policy implications of e an Astronaut Occupational Health program to include expanded medical monitoring of former NASA astronauts. Increasing the breadth of monitoring services will ultimately enrich the existing evidence base of occupational health risks to astronauts. Such an expansion would therefore improve the understanding of the health of the astronaut population as a whole, and the ability to identify, mitigate, and manage such risks in preparation for deep space exploration missions.

Rossi, Meredith↗
NASA NTRS2016

Extreme Weather and Climate: Workshop Report

Extreme events are the aspects of climate to which human society is most sensitive. Due to both their severity and their rarity, extreme events can challenge the capacity of physical, social, economic and political infrastructures, turning natural events into human disasters. Yet, because they are low frequency events, the science of extreme events is very challenging. Among the challenges is the difficulty of connecting extreme events to longer-term, large-scale variability and trends in the climate system, including anthropogenic climate change. How can we best quantify the risks posed by extreme weather events, both in the current climate and in the warmer and different climates to come? How can we better predict them? What can we do to reduce the harm done by such events? In response to these questions, the Initiative on Extreme Weather and Climate has been created at Columbia University in New York City (extreme weather.columbia.edu). This Initiative is a University-wide activity focused on understanding the risks to human life, property, infrastructure, communities, institutions, ecosystems, and landscapes from extreme weather events, both in the present and future climates, and on developing solutions to mitigate those risks. In May 2015,the Initiative held its first science workshop, entitled Extreme Weather and Climate: Hazards, Impacts, Actions. The purpose of the workshop was to define the scope of the Initiative and tremendously broad intellectual footprint of the topic indicated by the titles of the presentations (see Table 1). The intent of the workshop was to stimulate thought across disciplinary lines by juxtaposing talks whose subjects differed dramatically. Each session concluded with question and answer panel sessions. Approximately, 150 people were in attendance throughout the day. Below is a brief synopsis of each presentation. The synopses collectively reflect the variety and richness of the emerging extreme event research agenda.

extreme weather events↗
NASA NTRS2004

The Use 0f AVIRIS Imagery To Assess Clay Mineralogy And Debris-Flow Potential In Cataract Canyon, Utah: A Preliminary Report

Worldwide debris flows destroy property and take human lives every year (Costa, 1984). As a result of extensive property damage and loss of life there is a pressing need to go beyond just describing the nature and extent of debris flows as they occur. Most of the research into debris-flow initiation has centered on rainfall, slope angle, and existing debris-flow deposits (Costa and Wieczorek, 1987). The factor of source lithology has been recently addressed by studies in the sedimentary terranes of Grand Canyon (Webb et al., 1996; Griffiths et al., 1996) and on the Colorado Plateau as a whole.3 On the Colorado Plateau shales dominated by kaolinite and illite clays are significantly more likely to be recent producers of debris-flows than are shales in which smectite clays dominate.3 Establishing the location of shales and colluvial deposits containing kaolinite and illite clays in sedimentary terranes on the Colorado Plateau is essential to predicting where debris flows are likely to occur. AVIRIS imagery can be used to distinguish between types of clay minerals (Chabrillat et al., 2001), providing the basis for surface-materials maps. The ultimate product of this study will be a model that can be used to estimate the debris-flow hazard in Cataract Canyon, Utah. This model will be based on GIS overlay analysis of debris-flow initiation factor maps, including surface-materials maps derived from AVIRIS data.

Rudd, Lawrence↗
DOE OSTI2021

Concentrating Rare Earth Elements in Coal mine drainage Using Coal Combustion Products through Abandoned Mine Land Reclamation

Rare earth elements (REEs) (including scandium, yttrium and a group of 15 lanthanides) are often considered to be critical components in the productions of renewable energy hardware, electric vehicles, health care and military equipment, and consumer electronic products. The demand of REEs has been projected to be growing at an annual rate of 5-9% in the next 25 years. In 2011, the global demand of total rare earth oxides (REOs) was estimated to be approximately 105,000 tons, which is expected to grow to 210,000 tons by 2025. China overwhelmingly dominates the current worldwide rare earth productions but has strategically restricted its exports, causing significant instability for the global market. In response to the increasing demand for REEs and the supply dominance of China, identifying alternative sources of REEs has become a critical issue for the United States and other countries. Coal, coal ash, and coal mine drainage (CMD) are considered to be the alternative sources of REEs. In the U.S., high REE concentrations have been reported to be closely associated with coal deposits, including the Appalachian Basins. When surface and/or groundwater come in contact with geologic strata containing sulfide minerals exposed by coal mining, the accelerated oxidation of sulfide minerals in the presence of ferric iron and/or oxygen can produce sulfuric acid. The process promotes the weathering of REE-bearing rocks and minerals in the host geologic strata. Compared to average river water and seawater, the concentrations of REEs can be orders of magnitude higher in CMD. In this study, we demonstrated a trap-extract-precipitate (TEP) process that can effectively recover REEs from CMD. The three-stage TEP process uses alkaline industrial by-products to capture REEs from CMD and then applies an extraction/precipitation procedure to produce a feedstock that can be economically processed to produce marketable rare earth oxides. The alkaline industrial by-products tested in this study include the residual from a water softening process (DRWP sludge) and two types of stabilized flue gas desulfurization materials (sFGDs). sFGD material is a mixture of lime (CaO) and two coal combustion by-products, calcium sulfite FGD by-product and fly ash. The objectives of this study are to (1) validate the effectiveness and feasibility; (2) determine mechanisms controlling the rare earth recovery, (3) quantify the associated economic and environmental benefits, and (4) evaluate the full-scale application. To achieve these objectives, tasks to be carried out in this proposed project are organized into three phases. In the first phase, the research team collaborated with Ohio Department of Natural Resources, American Electric Power, The Wilds (a nonprofit wildlife conservation organization), and a private landowner to carry out field investigations aimed to screen and evaluate the seasonal changes of rare earths in the CMD discharges that have high recovery potentials. Next, the recovery of REEs from CMD was tested using a series of lab-scale column and batch tests under, respectively, percolation and completely mixed conditions. Results obtained from these lab-scale studies show that all three tested solids are very effective in retaining REEs. Over 98% of the CMD REEs that contacted the solids were captured before the solids exhausted their neutralization capacities. We also determined an extraction process using a non-acid, organic ligand extraction solution that can effectively remobilize the retained REEs from the spent solids (over 90%). The REE concentrate (>7.5 wt. % of total REEs) is then formed in an aeration process. The TEP process uses environmentally benign industrial by-products and a naturally-occurring organic ligand to mitigate CMD and recover REEs. Techno-economic analysis (TEA) and life-cycle assessment (LCA) was carried out in the third phase. The engineering-economic costs and net energy, net CO2 emissions, and water and other requirements were investigated to understand the economic and environmental implications of this process. This work uses mass and energy balances from laboratory-scale experiments to estimate the economic costs and environmental impacts. The results suggest that passive treatment systems that use DRWP sludge are preferred over those that use sFGD material, because of lower economic costs ($89,300/yr with a unit cost of $86/gT-REE vs. $89,800/yr, or $278/gT-REE) and improved environmental performance across all indicators from two different impact assessment methods. These differences are largely attributable to the larger capacity of DRWP sludge in the passive treatment application. We envision this TEP process can be integrated with abandoned mine land (AML) reclamation to create an approach that can add economic incentives for AML reclamation, remediate CMD discharge, and eliminate public safety hazards and threats to local environment and ecological systems posed by AMLs. It can restore lands and communities that are adversely impacted by legacy mining.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2025

Development of the Table of Initial Isolation and Protective Action Distances for the 2024 Emergency Response Guidebook

The transportation of hazardous materials creates numerous opportunities for the release of toxic substances into the environment, whether caused by traffic accidents, train derailments, equipment failures, or human error. Such releases can pose acute hazards to the general public and to emergency response personnel who are the first to arrive at the scene. To help first responders determine whether a shipment is potentially hazardous and decide what actions should be taken if a toxic spill does occur, the Emergency Response Guidebook (ERG) is published by the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT), Transport Canada, and the Secretariat of Transport and Communications of Mexico; with contributions from Centro de Informaciòn Quìmica para Emergencias of Argentina. The most recent version is the 2024 edition of the ERG (ERG 2024), titled 2024 Emergency Response Guidebook (ERG2024). The ERG provides essential information about firefighting, spill response, and potential public health effects. For chemicals that are toxic by inhalation (TIH) and chemicals that produce TIH gases upon reaction with water (TIH by water reactivity or TIHWR), the ERG provides initial isolation distances (IIDs) and protective action distances (PADs). The IID defines the radius of the zone around the spill that should be accessed solely by people who are directly involved in emergency response. The PAD is the distance downwind of the source of the release within which persons should be either evacuated or sheltered in place, depending on the severity of the incident and the nature of the population (e.g., density, age, health).

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗
DOE OSTI2020

Examination of Solvent- Room Temperature Ionic Liquid Interactions using 2D NMR and Computational Chemistry

Rare earth metals (REMs) are the key functioning material found in microelectronics, advanced batteries, and high-efficiency electrical motors. Current methods for producing REMs require high temperatures (i.e. energy intensive) and produce an abundance of hazardous fluoride waste. Room temperature ionic liquids (RTILs) are an ideal alternative electrolyte because they allow for a low-temperature, energy-efficient electrochemical process. RTIL properties such as viscosity and conductivity determine how effective they can be in this process. Since viscosity is directly related to both intra and intermolecular forces, this study sets out to investigate two RTILs-Trihexyltetradecylphosphonium dicyanamide (Cyphos 105) and Trihexyltetradecylphosphonium bistrifimide (Cyphos 109) and their interactions. Results from 2-dimensional nuclear magnetic resonance (2D NMR) spectroscopy show that there is an interaction between the tetradecyl tail and the phosphorus atom of the Cyphos RTIL. In order to establish whether this is an intra or an inter-molecular interaction, DFT-based computational calculations were performed to determine the optimized geometry. Calculations were done both in the gas phase and with propylene carbonate as an augmenting solvent. Preliminary results show that there is minimal intramolecular interaction between the tetradecyl tail and the phosphorus atom of the RTILs, and that the interaction seen in the 2D NMR experiment is likely of an intermolecular nature instead.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS1994

Soot Formation in Hydrocarbon/Air Laminar Jet Diffusion Flames

Soot processes within hydrocarbon/air diffusion flames are important because they affect the durability and performance of propulsion systems, the hazards of unwanted fires, the pollutant and particulate emissions from combustion processes, and the potential for developing computational combustion. Motivated by these observations, this investigation involved an experimental study of the structure and soot properties of round laminar jet diffusion flames, seeking an improved understanding of soot formation (growth and nucleation) within diffusion flames. The present study extends earlier work in this laboratory concerning laminar smoke points (l) and soot formation in acetylene/air laminar jet diffusion flames (2), emphasizing soot formation in hydrocarbon/air laminar jet diffusion flames for fuels other than acetylene. In the flame system, acetylene is the dominant gas species in the soot formation region and both nucleation and growth were successfully attributed to first-order reactions of acetylene, with nucleation exhibiting an activation energy of 32 kcal/gmol while growth involved negligible activation energy and a collision efficiency of O.53%. In addition, soot growth in the acetylene diffusion flames was comparable to new soot in premixed flame (which also has been attributed to first-order acetylene reactions). In view of this status, a major issue is the nature of soot formation processes in diffusion flame involving hydrocarbon fuels other than acetylene. In particular, information is needed about th dominant gas species in the soot formation region and the impact of gas species other than acetylene on soot nucleation and growth.

Sunderland, P. B.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Self-assembly of wood-based shape memory composites triggered by solar-thermal energy

Transporting and assembling large, complex structures poses significant challenges due to their size, geometry, and cost. Additionally, the installation sites are often inaccessible or hazardous for humans, necessitating self-assembling capabilities in these structures. To mitigate these challenges, we propose using 3D printing materials with shape memory effect (SME) for both transport and construction. This approach involves developing 3D modular components into flat sheets for easier transportation, and then self-assembling into 3D structures on-site using solar energy. To gain a deeper understanding of the factors influencing material memory performance, we have chosen a composite PLA/WF, which is polylactic acid (PLA) with 20 wt% wood flour (WF) for this purpose, leveraging its high tensile modulus at 0.966 GPa, low cost, and sustainability. Printed shapes with this material can maintain a recovery ratio over 90% after 3 cycles. While traditional composites fillers (e.g. glass or carbon fiber) are added to enhance mechanical and thermal properties, the addition of bio-based fillers like WF accomplish similar goals without compromising sustainability. We conducted multiple experiments to demonstrate how environmental conditions (i.e. temperature) maximize the material’s SME. Although still at an early stage, this study provides initial insights into bridging the gap between the small-scale nature of shape memory polymers (SMPs) and their potential for large-scale additive manufacturing, addressing a critical need for efficient and sustainable construction. In the long term, we hope our study contributes to the design vision of utilizing SMPs for transportation, assembly, and deployment of complex structures, providing a new pathway for sustainable construction and transportation of large-scale structures to hard-to-access locations such as disaster-affected areas and remote deserts, etc.

4D printing↗
NASA NTRS2008

Volume Averaged Height Integrated Radar Reflectivity (VAHIRR) Cost-Benefit Analysis

Lightning Launch Commit Criteria (LLCC) are designed to prevent space launch vehicles from flight through environments conducive to natural or triggered lightning and are used for all U.S. government and commercial launches at government and civilian ranges. They are maintained by a committee known as the NASA/USAF Lightning Advisory Panel (LAP). The previous LLCC for anvil cloud, meant to avoid triggered lightning, have been shown to be overly restrictive. Some of these rules have had such high safety margins that they prohibited flight under conditions that are now thought to be safe 90% of the time, leading to costly launch delays and scrubs. The LLCC for anvil clouds was upgraded in the summer of 2005 to incorporate results from the Airborne Field Mill (ABFM) experiment at the Eastern Range (ER). Numerous combinations of parameters were considered to develop the best correlation of operational weather observations to in-cloud electric fields capable of rocket triggered lightning in anvil clouds. The Volume Averaged Height Integrated Radar Reflectivity (VAHIRR) was the best metric found. Dr. Harry Koons of Aerospace Corporation conducted a risk analysis of the VAHIRR product. The results indicated that the LLCC based on the VAHIRR product would pose a negligible risk of flying through hazardous electric fields. Based on these findings, the Kennedy Space Center Weather Office is considering seeking funding for development of an automated VAHIRR algorithm for the new ER 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) RadTec 431250 weather radar and Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) radars. Before developing an automated algorithm, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) was tasked to determine the frequency with which VAHIRR would have allowed a launch to safely proceed during weather conditions otherwise deemed "red" by the Launch Weather Officer. To do this, the AMU manually calculated VAHIRR values based on candidate cases from past launches with known anvil cloud LLCC violations. An automated algorithm may be developed if the analyses from past launches show VAHIRR would have provided a significant cost benefit by allowing a launch to proceed. The 45 WS at the ER and 30th Weather Squadron (30 WS) at the Western Range provided the AMU with launch weather summaries from past launches that were impacted by LLCC. The 45 WS provided summaries from 14 launch attempts and the 30 WS fkom 5. The launch attempts occurred between December 2001 and June 2007. These summaries helped the AMU determine when the LLCC were "red" due to anvil cloud. The AMU collected WSR-88D radar reflectivity, cloud-to-ground lightning strikes, soundings and satellite imagery. The AMU used step-by-step instructions for calculating VAHIRR manually as provided by the 45 WS. These instructions were used for all of the candidate cases when anvil cloud caused an LLCC violation identified in the launch weather summaries. The AMU evaluated several software programs capable of visualizing radar data so that VAHIRR could be calculated and chose GR2Analyst from Gibson Ridge Software, LLC. Data availability and lack of detail from some launch weather summaries permitted analysis of six launch attempts from the ER and none from the WR. The AMU did not take into account whether or not other weather LCC violations were occurring at the same time as the anvil cloud LLCC since the goal of this task was to determine how often VAHIRR provided relief to the anvil cloud LLCC at any time during several previous launch attempts. Therefore, in the statistics presented in this report, it is possible that even though VAHIRR provided relief to the anvil cloud LLCC, other weather LCC could have been violated not permitting the launch to proceed. The results of this cost-benefit analysis indicated VAHIRR provided relief from the anvil cloud LLCC between about 15% and 18% of the time for varying 5-minute time periods based on summaries fkom six launch attempts and would have allowed launch to proceed that were otherwise "NO GO" due to the anvil cloud LLCC if the T-0 time occurred during the anvil cloud LLCC violations.

Bauman, William H., III↗
NASA NTRS2017

Using Information from Rendezvous Missions For Best-Case Appraisals of Impact Damage to Planet Earth Caused By Natural Objects

The Asteroid Threat Assessment Project (ATAP), a part of NASAs Planetary Defense Coordination Office (PDCO) has the responsibility to appraise the range of surface damage by potential asteroid impacts on land or water. If a threat is realized, the project will provide appraisals to officials empowered to make decisions on potential mitigation actions. This paper describes a scenario for assessment of surface damage when characterization of an asteroid had been accomplished by a rendezvous mission that would be conducted by the international planetary defense community. It is shown that the combination of data from ground and in-situ measurements on an asteroid provides knowledge that can be used to pin-point its impact location and predict the level of devastation it would cause. The hypothetical asteroid 2017 PDC with a size of 160 to 290 m in diameter to be discussed at the PDC 2017 meeting is used as an example. In order of importance for appraising potential damage, information required is: (1) where will the surface impact occur? (2) What is the mass, shape and size of the asteroid and what is its entry state (speed and entry angle) at the 100 km atmospheric pierce point? And (3) is the asteroid a monolith or a rubble pile? If it is a rubble pile, what is its sub and interior structure? Item (1) is of first order importance to determine levels of devastation (loss of life and infrastructure damage) because it varies strongly on the impact location. Items (2) and (3) are used as input for ATAPs simulations to define the level of surface hazards: winds, overpressure, thermal exposure; all created by the deposition of energy during the objects atmospheric flight, and/or cratering. Topics presented in this paper include: (i) The devastation predicted by 2017 PDCs impact based on initial observations using ATAPs risk assessment capability, (ii) How information corresponding to items (1) to (3) could be obtained from a rendezvous mission, and (iii) How information from a rendezvous mission could be used, along with that from ground observations and data from the literature, could provide input for an new risk analysis capability that is emerging from ATAPs research. It is concluded that this approach would result in appraisal with the least uncertainty possible (herein called the best-case) using simulation capabilities that are currently available or will be in the future.

Arnold, James O.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Using Information from Rendezvous Missions For Best-Case Appraisals of Impact Damage to Planet Earth Caused By Natural Objects

The Asteroid Threat Assessment Project (ATAP), a part of NASAs Planetary Defense Coordination Office (PDCO) has the responsibility to appraise the range of surface damage by potential asteroid impacts on land or water. If a threat is realized, the project will provide appraisals to officials empowered to make decisions on potential mitigation actions. This paper describes a scenario for assessment of surface damage when characterization of an asteroid had been accomplished by a rendezvous mission that would be conducted by the international planetary defense community. It is shown that the combination of data from ground and in-situ measurements on an asteroid provides knowledge that can be used to pin-point its impact location and predict the level of devastation it would cause. The hypothetical asteroid 2017 PDC with a size of 160 to 290 m in diameter to be discussed at the PDC 2017 meeting is used as an example. In order of importance for appraising potential damage, information required is: (1) where will the surface impact occur? (2) What is the mass, shape and size of the asteroid and what is its entry state (speed and entry angle) at the 100 km atmospheric pierce point? And (3) is the asteroid a monolith or a rubble pile? If it is a rubble pile, what is its sub and interior structure? Item (1) is of first order importance to determine levels of devastation (loss of life and infrastructure damage) because it varies strongly on the impact location. Items (2) and (3) are used as input for ATAPs simulations to define the level of surface hazards: winds, overpressure, thermal exposure; all created by the deposition of energy during the objects atmospheric flight, andor cratering. Topics presented in this paper include: (i) The devastation predicted by 2017 PDCs impact based on initial observations using ATAPs risk assessment capability, (ii) How information corresponding to items (1) to (3) could be obtained from a rendezvous mission, and (iii) How information from a rendezvous mission could be used, along with that from ground observations and data from the literature, could provide input for an new risk analysis capability that is emerging from ATAPs research. It is concluded that this approach would result in appraisal with the least uncertainty possible (herein called the best-case) using simulation capabilities that are currently available or will be in the future.

Arnold, J. O.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

An Interim Set of TNT Curves for LOX/LNG Explosions

Space launch companies are actively developing, or in some cases have already developed, new vehicles that use large quantities of liquid oxygen (LOX) and liquid natural gas (LNG) propellants. This propellant mixture currently lacks sound/verified explosive safety standards for use in explosive siting and flight safety analysis. In the U.S., multiple government and commercial organizations have conducted limited testing, or are preparing to conduct tests, intended to provide a sound technical basis for LOX/LNG explosive standards applicable to space launch vehicle ground and flight operations. The limited testing and analysis conducted so far indicates the potential to produce extremely energetic explosions due to the miscibility of LOX/LNG (methane), a unique feature relative to previously used propellant mixtures such as hydrogen/oxygen or kerosene/oxygen. MOX is a homogenous mixture of methane and oxygen that is possible because of methane’s 100% miscibility in LOX. Preliminary testing by N2L, Inc. described in this paper shows that it is possible to form MOX with a variety of mixing methods, and that MOX is a sensitive high explosive capable of producing overpressures greater than comparable masses of C-4. The limited amount and quality of large-scale LOX/LNG explosive test data, and the potential formation of high-explosive MOX, create significant unknowns in the determination of hazard areas (cleared of the public) for ground operations (such as a static fire test) and flights of launch vehicles with LOX/LNG propellant. This paper will review the methods used by NASA to develop and validate the LOX/LH2 blast model using large-scale explosive test programs such as Project PYRO, the Hydrogen-Oxygen Vertical Impact (HOVI), and the Large-Scale Hydrogen-Oxygen Explosion (LSHOE) tests. This paper will describe how the same process was used to prepare an interim LOX/LNG blast model that applies to various LV failure scenarios and conservatively accounts for potential MOX formation. This paper also summarizes past and future testing and modeling efforts funded by a consortium of NASA, the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), and the US Space Force (USSF). These test programs should be concluded within the next 3 years and are intended to provide empirical data for model verification and validation.

Liquid Oxygen↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

An Interim Set of TNT Curves for LOX/LNG Explosions

Space launch companies are actively developing, or in some cases have already developed, new vehicles that use large quantities of liquid oxygen (LOX) and liquid natural gas (LNG) propellants. This propellant mixture currently lacks sound/verified LOX/LNG explosive safety standards for use in explosive siting and flight safety analysis. In the U.S., multiple government and commercial organizations have conducted limited testing, or are preparing to conduct tests, intended to provide a sound technical basis for explosive standards applicable to space launch vehicle ground and flight operations. The limited testing and analysis conducted so far indicates the potential to produce extremely energetic explosions due to the miscibility of LOX/LNG (methane), a unique feature relative to previously used propellant mixtures such as hydrogen/oxygen or kerosene/oxygen. MOX is a homogenous mixture of methane and oxygen that is possible because of methane’s 100% miscibility in LOX. Preliminary testing by N2L, Inc. described in this paper shows that it is possible to form MOX with a variety of mixing methods, and that MOX is a sensitive high explosive capable of producing overpressures greater than comparable masses of C-4. The limited amount and quality of large-scale LOX/LNG explosive test data, and the potential formation of high-explosive MOX, create significant unknowns in the determination of hazard areas (cleared of the public) for ground operations (such as a static fire test) and flights of launch vehicles with LOX/LNG propellant. This paper will review the methods used by NASA to develop and validate the LOX/LH2 blast model using large-scale explosive test programs such as Project PYRO, the Hydrogen-Oxygen Vertical Impact (HOVI), and the Large-Scale Hydrogen-Oxygen Explosion (LSHOE) tests. This paper will describe how the same process was used to prepare an interim LOX/LNG blast model that applies to various LV failure scenarios and conservatively accounts for potential MOX formation. This paper also summarizes past and future testing and modeling efforts funded by a consortium of NASA, the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), and the US Space Force (USSF). These test programs should be concluded within the next 3 years and are intended to provide empirical data for model verification and validation.

Liquid Oxygen↗
NASA NTRS2001

Accessing Martian Fluvial and Lacustrine Sediments by Landing in Holden Crater, Margaritifer Sinus

Rover missions to the surface of Mars after MER 2003, are likely to be centered around focused geologic field mapping. One objective with high priority in selecting landing sites for these missions will be to characterize the nature, spatial distribution, internal structure, composition, and depositional history of exposed sedimentary layered deposits by visiting a number of distributed outcrops identified previously (and with a high degree of certainty) from orbit. These deposits may contain prebiotic material, even fossil organisms, but their primary value will be to enable an assessment of the planet's climate at the time they were emplaced. High resolution imaging from a mobile rover will enable the detailed study of these deposits over a wide area, their internal structure and mineralogy at distributed localities, and could resolve biologically-derived structures (such as stromatolite-like textures) if they are present. With the addition of a spectrometer, it should be possible to ascertain the presence of carbonates, sulfates, organics, water (liquid, frost, and bound water), as well as a variety of silicate minerals in the context of the collected imagery. Such a mission approach is directly relevant to future exploration of Mars, because it provides the geologic context comparable to what a field geologist visiting a site for the first time would acquire. Rover missions after MER will likely have much better targeting and hazard avoidance landing systems, enabling access to planimetrically-challenged sites of high scientific interest. These vehicles will also likely have greater mobility than MER, capable of driving greater distances in a shorter amount of time. Many scientists and mission planners have realized the need to design a rover whose mobility can be comparable to the dimensions of its 3-sigma landing error ellipse.

Parker, T. J.↗