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At least 829 records · Page 46

Preservation of Data for Earth System Science- Towards a Content Standard

Various remote sensing agencies of the world have created a data rich environment for research and applications over the last three decades. Especially over the last decade, the volume and variety of data useful for Earth system science have increased quite rapidly. One of the key purposes of collecting these data and generating useful digital products containing derived geophysical parameters is to study the long-term trends in the Earth s behavior. Long-term observational data and derived products are essential for validating results from models that predict the future behavior of the Earth system. Given the significant resources expended in gathering the observational data and developing the derived products, it is important to preserve them for the benefit of future generations of users. Preservation involves maintaining the bits with no loss (or loss within scientifically acceptable bounds) as they move across systems as well as over time, ensuring readability over time, and providing for long-term understandability and repeatability of previously obtained results. In order to ensure long-term understandability and repeatability, it is necessary to identify all items of content that must be preserved and plan for such preservation. This paper discusses the need for a standard enumerating and describing such content items and reports on the progress made by NASA and the Federation of Earth Science Information Partners (ESIP Federation) in the U.S. towards such a standard.

Ramapriyan, Hampapuram↗

Toward a Climate OSSE Framework for Satellite Mission Design

The rich history of observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) does not yet include a well-established framework for using climate models. The need for a climate OSSE is triggered by the need to quantify the value of a particular measurement for reducing the uncertainty in climate predictions, which differ from numerical weather predictions in that they depend on future atmospheric composition rather than the current state of the weather. However, both weather and climate modeling communities share a need for motivating major observing system investments. Here, we outline a new framework for climate OSSEs that leverages the use of machine learning to calibrate climate model physics against existing satellite data. We demonstrate its application using NASA’s GISS-E3 model to objectively quantify the value of potential future improvements in spaceborne measurements of Earth’s planetary boundary layer. A mature climate OSSE framework should be able to quantitatively compare the ability of proposed observing system architectures to answer a climate-related question, thus offering added value throughout the mission design process, which is subject to increasingly rapid advances in instrument and satellite technology. Technical considerations include selection of observational benchmarks and climate projection metrics, approaches to pinpoint the sources of model physics uncertainty that dominate uncertainty in projections, and the use of instrument simulators. Community and policy-making considerations include the potential to interface with an established culture of model intercomparison projects and a growing need to economically assess the value-driven efficiency of social spending on Earth observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Southern Ocean Solar Reflection Biases in Cmip6 Models Linked to Cloud Phase and Vertical Structure Representations

Over the Southern Ocean (SO, 40˚S-70˚S), climate models have consistently underestimated solar reflection. Here we evaluate the relationship between cloud profiles, cloud phase and radiation over the SO in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models against Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) and Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO). We find that the lack of solar reflection is slightly improved in CMIP6 models compared to CMIP5’s, attributable to a better representation of cloud fraction and phase. We show that clouds have a different vertical structure and radiative effect south and north of where the 0˚C isotherm meets the surface (~55˚S). Although the models capture the greater vertical extent of clouds south of 55˚S, they fail to reproduce the observed increase in solar reflection, which we pinpoint to cloud phase biases. Increasing CMIP6 supercooled liquid cloud opacity should help reduce their persistent SW biases.

Southern Ocean↗

Skillful Multi‐Month Predictions of Ecosystem Stressors in the Surface and Subsurface Ocean

Abstract Anthropogenic carbon emissions and associated climate change are driving rapid warming, acidification, and deoxygenation in the ocean, which increasingly stress marine ecosystems. On top of long‐term trends, short term variability of marine stressors can have major implications for marine ecosystems and their management. As such, there is a growing need for predictions of marine ecosystem stressors on monthly, seasonal, and multi‐month timescales. Previous studies have demonstrated the ability to make reliable predictions of the surface ocean physical and biogeochemical state months to years in advance, but few studies have investigated forecast skill of multiple stressors simultaneously or assessed the forecast skill below the surface. Here, we use the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Seasonal to Multiyear Large Ensemble (SMYLE) along with novel observation‐based biogeochemical and physical products to quantify the predictive skill of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), dissolved oxygen, and temperature in the surface and subsurface ocean. CESM SMYLE demonstrates high physical and biogeochemical predictive skill multiple months in advance in key oceanic regions and frequently outperforms persistence forecasts. We find up to 10 months of skillful forecasts, with particularly high skill in the Northeast Pacific (Gulf of Alaska and California Current Large Marine Ecosystems) for temperature, surface DIC, and subsurface oxygen. Our findings suggest that dynamical marine ecosystem prediction could support actionable advice for decision making.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Simulating Hurricane Katrina in the Simple Cloud‐Resolving E3SM Atmosphere Model v1

Climate models are important tools for advancing understanding and prediction of tropical cyclones (TCs). Traditional global climate models, however, do not have the ability to properly simulate TC intensity due to their coarse horizontal resolution. Regional models can be run at convection‐permitting resolutions, but these models are often strongly influenced by the data used in the lateral boundary forcing, and domain choice can have a large impact on the simulation. Cloud‐resolving global climate models have demonstrated great potential for realism in TC simulations, and in this study we focus specifically on the Simple Cloud‐Resolving Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Atmosphere Model (SCREAM) v1 configuration. We evaluate SCREAMv1 against the observational record and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model run at a convection‐permitting resolution with Hurricane Katrina as our case study. We found that both models produced realistic simulations of Hurricane Katrina. SCREAMv1 demonstrated skill in simulating TC track, size, and intensity, while the model produced an excessive amount of precipitation. In comparison, WRF more accurately simulated TC precipitation and intensity, although the TC wind extent was smaller than the observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluating A Priori Ozone Profile Information Used in TEMPO Tropospheric Ozone Retrievals

Ozone (O3) is a greenhouse gas and toxic pollutant which plays a major role in air quality. Typically, monitoring of surface air quality and O3 mixing ratios is primarily conducted using in situ measurement networks. This is partially due to high-quality information related to air quality being limited from space-borne platforms due to coarse spatial resolution, limited temporal frequency, and minimal sensitivity to lower tropospheric and surface-level O3. The Tropospheric Emissions: Monitoring of Pollution (TEMPO) satellite is designed to address these limitations of current space-based platforms and to improve our ability to monitor North American air quality. TEMPO will provide hourly data of total column and vertical profiles of O3 with high spatial resolution to be used as a near-real-time air quality product. TEMPO O3 retrievals will apply the Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory profile algorithm developed based on work from GOME, GOME-2, and OMI. This algorithm uses a priori O3 profile information from a climatological data-base developed from long-term ozone-sonde measurements (tropopause-based (TB) O3 climatology). It has been shown that satellite O3 retrievals are sensitive to a priori O3 profiles and covariance matrices. During this work we investigate the climatological data to be used in TEMPO algorithms (TB O3) and simulated data from the NASA GMAO Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-5) Forward Processing (FP) near-real-time (NRT) model products. These two data products will be evaluated with ground-based lidar data from the Tropospheric Ozone Lidar Network (TOLNet) at various locations of the US. This study evaluates the TB climatology, GEOS-5 climatology, and 3-hourly GEOS-5 data compared to lower tropospheric observations to demonstrate the accuracy of a priori information to potentially be used in TEMPO O3 algorithms. Here we present our initial analysis and the theoretical impact on TEMPO retrievals in the lower troposphere.

ozone↗

Evaluating a Priori Ozone Profile Information Used in TEMPO Tropospheric Ozone Retrievals

Ozone (O3) is a greenhouse gas and toxic pollutant which plays a major role in air quality. Typically, monitoring of surface air quality and O3 mixing ratios is primarily conducted using in situ measurement networks. This is partially due to high-quality information related to air quality being limited from space-borne platforms due to coarse spatial resolution, limited temporal frequency, and minimal sensitivity to lower tropospheric and surface-level O3. The Tropospheric Emissions: Monitoring of Pollution (TEMPO) satellite is designed to address these limitations of current space-based platforms and to improve our ability to monitor North American air quality. TEMPO will provide hourly data of total column and vertical profiles of O3 with high spatial resolution to be used as a near-real-time air quality product.TEMPO O3 retrievals will apply the Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory profile algorithm developed based on work from GOME, GOME-2, and OMI. This algorithm uses a priori O3 profile information from a climatological data-base developed from long-term ozone-sonde measurements (tropopause-based (TB) O3 climatology). It has been shown that satellite O3 retrievals are sensitive to a priori O3 profiles and covariance matrices. During this work we investigate the climatological data to be used in TEMPO algorithms (TB O3) and simulated data from the NASA GMAO Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-5) Forward Processing (FP) near-real-time (NRT) model products. These two data products will be evaluated with ground-based lidar data from the Tropospheric Ozone Lidar Network (TOLNet) at various locations of the US. This study evaluates the TB climatology, GEOS-5 climatology, and 3-hourly GEOS-5 data compared to lower tropospheric observations to demonstrate the accuracy of a priori information to potentially be used in TEMPO O3 algorithms. Here we present our initial analysis and the theoretical impact on TEMPO retrievals in the lower troposphere.

TEMPO↗

Laser Pulse Bidirectional Reflectance from CALIPSO Mission

In this Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) study, we present a simple way of determining laser pulse bidirectional reflectance over snow/ice surface using the Cloud-Aerosol LIdar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) 532 nanometer polarization channels' measurements. The saturated laser pulse returns from snow and ice surfaces are recovered based on surface tail information. The method overview and initial assessment of the method performance will be presented. The retrieved snow surface bidirectional reflectance is compared with reflectance from both CALIOP cloud cover regions and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (Earth Observing System (EOS)) (MODIS) Bi-directional Reflectance Distribution Function (BRDF) / Albedo model parameters. The comparisons show that the snow surface bidirectional reflectance over Antarctica for saturation region are generally reliable with a mean value of about 0.90 plus or minus 0.10, while the mean surface reflectance from cloud cover region is about 0.84 plus or minus 0.13 and the calculated MODIS reflectance at 555 nanometers from the BRDF / Albedo model with near nadir illumination and viewing angles is about 0.96 plus or minus 0.04. The comparisons here demonstrate that the snow surface reflectance underneath the cloud with cloud optical depth of about 1 is significantly lower than that for a clear sky condition.

Lu, Xiaomei↗

Evaluation and improvement of the parameterization of aerosol hygroscopicity in global climate models using in-situ surface measurements (Final Report)

Aerosols are tiny particles suspended on the atmosphere that can interact with incoming solar radiation and affect the Earth radiative budget. They do so by scattering and absorbing solar radiation, and these properties vary depending on the aerosol size and chemical composition. Moreover, by taking up water from the surrounding air, hygroscopic aerosol particles will grow in size and change their chemical composition, thus modifying their optical properties (scattering and absorption) and their final impact on radiative forcing calculations. An accurate knowledge of aerosol hygroscopicity is crucial for estimating the net radiative impact of aerosols. We took a three-pronged approach to improve our understanding of aerosol hygroscopicity and how it is implemented in Earth system models. In the first part of our project, we developed a benchmark dataset from existing aerosol hygroscopic growth measurements made by tandem nephelometer humidogram systems. We analyzed, using a standardized methodology, observations from 26 in-situ stations around the globe. Measurement data was collected from multiple data providers, reviewed and harmonized to create a consistent dataset of the scattering enhancement factor due to aerosol water uptake. This dataset is archived in several publicly available databases for use by interested researchers. In the second part of the project, we used the benchmark hygroscopicity dataset to perform a global study on aerosol hygroscopicity and aerosol optical properties. Measurements show a global picture of scattering enhancement with larger values for Arctic and marine sites and lower for urban and desert sites. We assessed the RH dependence of aerosol radiative forcing and showed that the overall effect of aerosol hygroscopicity on DARF is an increase in the absolute forcing effect (negative sign) by a factor of up to 4 compared to dry conditions (RH<40%). Finally, we explored using aerosol single scattering albedo (SSA) and scattering Angstrom exponent (SAE) as possible proxies for aerosol hygroscopicity. SSA showed more promise as a surrogate for the scattering enhancement factor than SAE, but neither was ideal. In the third part of the project we evaluated the output of ten Earth system models (ESMs) against the benchmark hygroscopicity dataset. ESMs utilize various schemes for aerosol hygroscopicity which had not been previously tested against observations on a global scale. We found that ESMs currently overestimate scattering enhancement due to hygroscopic growth. Model parameterizations of hygroscopicity and model chemistry are two main factors driving the observed diversity in hygroscopicity simulations among the models. In addition, our study makes several suggestions for modelers, including improving the parameterizations of organic and sea salt aerosol hygroscopicity. Future hygroscopicity model evaluation experiments should include the model data related to particles size which was not available for our study.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Results from Global Land-Surface Data Assimilation Methods

Realistic representation of the land surface is crucial in global climate modeling (GCM). Recently, the Mosaic land-surface Model (LSM) has been driven off-line using GEOS DAS (Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System) atmospheric forcing, forming the Off-line Land-surface Global Assimilation (OLGA) system. This system provides a computationally efficient test bed for land surface data assimilation. Here, we validate the OLGA simulation of surface processes and the assimilation of ISCCP surface temperatures. Another component of this study as the incorporation of the Physical-space Statistical Analysis System (PSAS) into OLGA, in order to assimilate surface temperature observations from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP). To counteract the subsequent forcing of the analyzed skin temperature back to the initial state following the analysis. incremental bias correction (IBC) was included in the assimilation. The IBC scheme effectively removed the time mean bias, but did not remove him in the mean diurnal cycle. Therefore, a diurnal him correction (DBC) scheme was developed, where the time-dependent bias was modeled with a sine wave parameterization. In addition, quality control of the ISCCP data and anisotropic temperature correction were implemented in PSAS. Preliminary results showed a substantial impact from the inclusion of PSAS and DBC that was visible in the surface meteorology fields and energy budget. Also, the monthly mean diurnal cycle from the experiment closely matched the diurnal cycle from the observations.

Radakovich, Jon D.↗

Parallelization of the Physical-Space Statistical Analysis System (PSAS)

Atmospheric data assimilation is a method of combining observations with model forecasts to produce a more accurate description of the atmosphere than the observations or forecast alone can provide. Data assimilation plays an increasingly important role in the study of climate and atmospheric chemistry. The NASA Data Assimilation Office (DAO) has developed the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS DAS) to create assimilated datasets. The core computational components of the GEOS DAS include the GEOS General Circulation Model (GCM) and the Physical-space Statistical Analysis System (PSAS). The need for timely validation of scientific enhancements to the data assimilation system poses computational demands that are best met by distributed parallel software. PSAS is implemented in Fortran 90 using object-based design principles. The analysis portions of the code solve two equations. The first of these is the "innovation" equation, which is solved on the unstructured observation grid using a preconditioned conjugate gradient (CG) method. The "analysis" equation is a transformation from the observation grid back to a structured grid, and is solved by a direct matrix-vector multiplication. Use of a factored-operator formulation reduces the computational complexity of both the CG solver and the matrix-vector multiplication, rendering the matrix-vector multiplications as a successive product of operators on a vector. Sparsity is introduced to these operators by partitioning the observations using an icosahedral decomposition scheme. PSAS builds a large (approx. 128MB) run-time database of parameters used in the calculation of these operators. Implementing a message passing parallel computing paradigm into an existing yet developing computational system as complex as PSAS is nontrivial. One of the technical challenges is balancing the requirements for computational reproducibility with the need for high performance. The problem of computational reproducibility is well known in the parallel computing community. It is a requirement that the parallel code perform calculations in a fashion that will yield identical results on different configurations of processing elements on the same platform. In some cases this problem can be solved by sacrificing performance. Meeting this requirement and still achieving high performance is very difficult. Topics to be discussed include: current PSAS design and parallelization strategy; reproducibility issues; load balance vs. database memory demands, possible solutions to these problems.

Larson, J. W.↗

Earth Science System of the Future: Observing, Processing, and Delivering Data Products Directly to Users

Advancement of our predictive capabilities will require new scientific knowledge, improvement of our modeling capabilities, and new observation strategies to generate the complex data sets needed by coupled modeling networks. New observation strategies must support remote sensing from a variety of vantage points and will include "sensorwebs" of small satellites in low Earth orbit, large aperture sensors in Geostationary orbits, and sentinel satellites at L1 and L2 to provide day/night views of the entire globe. Onboard data processing and high speed computing and communications will enable near real-time tailoring and delivery of information products (i.e., predictions) directly to users.

Crisp, David↗

Bias correcting regional scale Earth system model projections: novel approach using empirical mode decomposition

Bias correction is a crucial step in using Earth system model outputs for assessments, as it adjusts systematic errors by comparing the model to observations. However, standard methods – ranging from mean-based linear scaling to distribution-based quantile mapping typically treat bias correction as a single-scale process, overlooking the fact that biases can manifest differently across daily, seasonal, and annual timescales. In this study, we propose a novel, timescale-aware bias-correction approach built on Empirical Mode Decomposition. By decomposing the meteorological signal into multiple oscillatory components and aggregating them to represent distinct timescales, we apply targeted corrections to each component, thereby preserving both short- and long-term structure in the data. Experimental illustrations show that the timescale-aware EMDBC framework matches the performance of conventional quantile-delta mapping (QDM) at the native daily scale and achieves progressively larger bias reductions at bi-weekly, seasonal, and annual scales. As a result, the proposed approach offers a more robust path to accurate and reliable Earth system projections, strengthening their utility for resilience and adaptation planning.

Ganguli, Arkaprabha [Argonne National Laboratory (↗

Modeling the growth phase of a substorm using the Tsyganenko model and multi-spacecraft observations - CDAW-9

The CDAW-9 Event C focused upon the early part of 3 May 1986 when a large substorm onset occurred at 0111 UT. By modifying the Tsyganenko 1989 magnetic field model, a model is constructed in which the near-earth current systems are enhanced with time to describe the observed development of the tail magnetic field during the growth phase. The cross-tail current intensity and the thickness of the current sheet are determined by comparison with three spacecraft in the near-earth tail. The location of the auroral bulge as recorded by the Viking imager is mapped to the equatorial current sheet. The degree of chaotization of the thermal electrons is estimated, and the consequences to the tail stability towards on tearing are discussed. It is concluded that the mapping of the brightening region in the auroral oval corresponds to the regions in the tail where the current sheet may be unstable towards ion tearing.

Pulkkinen, T. I.↗

The Use of Spire Radio Occultation Measurements in the GEOS Atmospheric Data Assimilation System

As part of the pilot segment of the NASA Commercial SmallSat Data Acquisition (CSDA) Program, the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) evaluated products acquired from Spire Global, Inc. in the context of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Atmospheric Data Assimilation System (ADAS). Specifically, the GMAO assimilated the bending angle profiles derived by Spire from Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) radio occultation (RO) measurements of the atmosphere made by their Stratos instruments onboard their constellation of Lemur small satellites. The bending angle observations were used to further constrain the thermodynamic fields in the context of the global observing system typically assimilated within GEOS.

Will Mccarty↗

MERRA-2 Input Observations: Summary and Assessment

The Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) is an atmospheric reanalysis, spanning 1980 through near-realtime, that uses state-of-the-art processing of observations from the continually evolving global observing system. The effectiveness of any reanalysis is a function not only of the input observations themselves, but also of how the observations are handled in the assimilation procedure. Relevant issues to consider include, but are not limited to, data selection, data preprocessing, quality control, bias correction procedures, and blacklisting. As the assimilation algorithm and earth system models are fundamentally fixed in a reanalysis, it is often a change in the character of the observations, and their feedbacks on the system, that cause changes in the character of the reanalysis. It is therefore important to provide documentation of the observing system so that its discontinuities and transitions can be readily linked to discontinuities seen in the gridded atmospheric fields of the reanalysis. With this in mind, this document provides an exhaustive list of the input observations, the context under which they are assimilated, and an initial assessment of selected core observations fundamental to the reanalysis.

Satellite Observations↗

Initialized Earth system prediction from subseasonal to decadal timescales

Initialized Earth system predictions are made by starting a numerical prediction model in a state as consistent as possible to observations, and running it forward in time for up to ten years. Skillful predictions at time slices from subseasonal to seasonal (S2S), seasonal to interannual (S2I) and seasonal to decadal (S2D) offer information useful for various stakeholders, from agriculture to water resource management, and human and infrastructure safety. In this Review, we examine the processes influencing predictability, and discuss estimates of skill across S2S, S2I and S2D timescales. There are encouraging signs that skillful predictions can be made: at S2S timescales, there has been some skill in predicting the Madden-Julian Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation; at S2I in predicting the El Niño-Southern Oscillation; and at S2D, in predicting variability in North Atlantic sea surface temperatures. However, challenges remain, and future work must prioritise reducing model error, more effectively communicating forecasts to users, and increasing process and mechanistic understanding that could increase predictive skill and, in turn, confidence. As numerical models progress towards Earth system models, initialized predictions are expanding to include prediction of sea-ice, air pollution, terrestrial and ocean biochemistry which can bring clear benefit to society and various stakeholders.

climate prediction↗

A Comparative Study of Cloud Properties Between Northern and Southern High Latitudes Based on ARM Observations and EAMv2 Simulations

Earth's high-latitude regions show a considerable amount of cloud coverage, which significantly affects global radiation budgets. Here, in this study, we examine ground- and ship-based remote sensing observations from two Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) field campaigns conducted in the high-latitude regions of Northern and Southern Hemispheres (NH and SH). A comparison of macrophysical properties for low, mid-level, high, and deep clouds shows that the cloud top heights and thickness values are higher in the Arctic for each cloud type compared with the Southern Ocean and Antarctic regions, possibly due to higher sea surface temperatures in the north Atlantic. The Arctic also shows lower ice phase occurrence frequencies compared with the SH high latitudes for low clouds. For high, mid-level and deep clouds, the cloud phase distributions as a function of temperature show small geographical variabilities. The observations are then compared with the Department of Energy (DOE) Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) to evaluate the representations of these cloud properties. Here, the results show that the model captures cloud base and top heights well and reproduces the differences in cloud macrophysical properties between the two hemispheres. But the model underestimates ice phase frequencies for all cloud types. Such model cloud phase bias is strongly correlated with positive relative humidity biases and negative aerosol number concentration biases, indicating an important role of relative humidity and aerosols in modulating cloud phase partitioning in the model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗