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NASA NTRS2000

GRACE Mission Design: Impact of Uncertainties in Disturbance Environment and Satellite Force Models

The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) primary mission will be performed by making measurements of the inter-satellite range change between two co-planar, low altitude, near-polar orbiting satellites. Understanding the uncertainties in the disturbance environment, particularly the aerodynamic drag and torques, is critical in several mission areas. These include an accurate estimate of the spacecraft orbital lifetime, evaluation of spacecraft attitude control requirements, and estimation of the orbital maintenance maneuver frequency necessitated by differences in the drag forces acting on both satellites. The FREEMOL simulation software has been developed and utilized to analyze and suggest design modifications to the GRACE spacecraft. Aerodynamic accommodation bounding analyses were performed and worst-case envelopes were obtained for the aerodynamic torques and the differential ballistic coefficients between the leading and trailing GRACE spacecraft. These analyses demonstrate how spacecraft aerodynamic design and analysis can benefit from a better understanding of spacecraft surface accommodation properties, and the implications for mission design constraints such as formation spacing control.

Mazanek, Daniel D.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Future directions for LDEF ionizing radiation modeling and assessments

A calculational program utilizing data from radiation dosimetry measurements aboard the Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) satellite to reduce the uncertainties in current models defining the ionizing radiation environment is in progress. Most of the effort to date has been on using LDEF radiation dose measurements to evaluate models defining the geomagnetically trapped radiation, which has provided results applicable to radiation design assessments being performed for Space Station Freedom. Plans for future data comparisons, model evaluations, and assessments using additional LDEF data sets (LET spectra, induced radioactivity, and particle spectra) are discussed.

Armstrong, T. W.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Sensitivity Analysis and Uncertainty Quantification of a Mars Ascent Vehicle Concept

The design of a conceptual Mars ascent vehicle is a challenging problem. In order to aid the vehicle and mission concept design it is important to understand the driving design parameters and the expected performance in the presence of model errors and uncertainties. An existing six degree of freedom simulation model is analyzed on a statistical basis using the methods available in the Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale Applications toolkit. The methods utilized include conventional Monte Carlo techniques, metamodeling via polynomial chaos expansions, and global variance-based sensitivity analyses. Two additional analysis methods referred to as “Monte Carlo filtering” and ”Classification trees” are used to determine which uncertain parameters are driving the performance of the vehicle. Monte Carlo filtering provides a methodology to determine which parameters cause qualitatively different behavior while the classification trees use heuristics to partition the input space and assign probabilities to each partition. These methods serve as qualitative descriptors of model sensitivity while variance-based global sensitivity analysis seeks a quantitative mapping from total output variance to the variance of individual inputs. Application of these techniques to several outputs of a Mars ascent vehicle concept simulation indicates that only a select few input factors dominate their variance.

Noyes, Connor↗
NASA NTRS1992

Measured and calculated optical property profiles in the mixed layer and free troposphere

Nearly simultaneous measurements of the physical and optical properties of mixed layer and free tropospheric aerosols near Boulder, Colorado, were made on several occasions using aircraft, balloon, and ground-based sensors. This effort (Front Range Lidar, Aircraft, and Balloon experiment (FRLAB)) was conducted with the purpose of obtaining a diverse, self-consistent data set that could be used for testing optical model calculations based on measured physical characteristics such as apparent size distribution, composition, and shape. It was found that even with the uncertainties involved, the model predictions are in good agreement with the measurements in the visible and near infrared wavelength regions. At CO2 lidar wavelengths there is considerably more uncertainty in both the calculated and measured values; however, within the estimated errors there appears to be satisfactory agreement except for the highest free tropospheric layer studied. The results also indicate that during FRLAB the aerosol in the boundary layer and free troposphere behaved as spherical particles for optical modeling purposes. The utility of the observations for determining the extinction-to-backscatter ratio relevant to aerosols in the boundary layer and free troposphere is described with typical measured values being in the 20 to 30 sr range.

Rosen, James M.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Solar Dynamics Observatory On-Orbit Jitter Testing, Analysis, and Mitigation Plans

The Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) was designed to understand the Sun and the Sun s influence on Earth. SDO was launched on February 11, 2010 carrying three scientific instruments: the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA), the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI), and the Extreme Ultraviolet Variability Experiment (EVE). Both AIA and HMI are sensitive to high frequency pointing perturbations and have sub-arcsecond level line-of-sight (LOS) jitter requirements. Extensive modeling and analysis efforts were directed in estimating the amount of jitter disturbing the science instruments. To verify the disturbance models and to validate the jitter performance prior to launch, many jitter-critical components and subassemblies were tested either by the mechanism vendors or at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). Although detailed analysis and assembly level tests were performed to obtain good jitter predictions, there were still several sources of uncertainties in the system. The structural finite element model did not have all the modes correlated to test data at high frequencies (greater than 50 Hz). The performance of the instrument stabilization system was not known exactly but was expected to be close to the analytical model. A true disturbance-to-LOS observatory level test was not available due to the tight schedule of the flight spacecraft, the cost in time and manpower, difficulties in creating gravity negation systems, and risks of damaging flight hardware. To protect the observatory jitter performance against model uncertainties, the SDO jitter team devised several on-orbit jitter reduction plans in addition to reserve margins on analysis results. Since some of these plans severely restricted the capabilities of several spacecraft components (e.g. wheels and High Gain Antennas), the SDO team performed on-orbit jitter tests to determine which jitter reduction plans, if any, were necessary to satisfy science LOS jitter requirements. The SDO on-orbit jitter tests were designed to satisfy the following four objectives: 1. Determine the acceptable reaction wheel operational speed range during Science Mode. 2. Determine HGA algorithm jitter parameters (number of stagger steps and enable/disable no-steprequests). 3. Determine acceptable EVE instrument filter wheels spin rates. 4. Determine if AIA instrument filter wheels excite the first AIA telescope structural mode. This paper provides detailed information on the SDO wheel jitter test plan, shows on-orbit jitter measurements and how ground predictions compare to those measurements, and describes the final jitter mitigation plan executed on SDO.

Liu, Kuo-Chia (Alice)↗
NASA NTRS2017

Aeroelastic Uncertainty Quantification Studies Using the S4T Wind Tunnel Model

This paper originates from the joint efforts of an aeroelastic study team in the Applied Vehicle Technology Panel from NATO Science and Technology Organization, with the Task Group number AVT-191, titled "Application of Sensitivity Analysis and Uncertainty Quantification to Military Vehicle Design." We present aeroelastic uncertainty quantification studies using the SemiSpan Supersonic Transport wind tunnel model at the NASA Langley Research Center. The aeroelastic study team decided treat both structural and aerodynamic input parameters as uncertain and represent them as samples drawn from statistical distributions, propagating them through aeroelastic analysis frameworks. Uncertainty quantification processes require many function evaluations to asses the impact of variations in numerous parameters on the vehicle characteristics, rapidly increasing the computational time requirement relative to that required to assess a system deterministically. The increased computational time is particularly prohibitive if high-fidelity analyses are employed. As a remedy, the Istanbul Technical University team employed an Euler solver in an aeroelastic analysis framework, and implemented reduced order modeling with Polynomial Chaos Expansion and Proper Orthogonal Decomposition to perform the uncertainty propagation. The NASA team chose to reduce the prohibitive computational time by employing linear solution processes. The NASA team also focused on determining input sample distributions.

Nikbay, Melike↗
NASA NTRS1986

Design of robust failure detection filters

An essential aspect of the design of control systems for large, flexible spacecraft is fault tolerance. Because it is anticipated that a large number of sensors and actuators will be required to realize good control over these assemblies, the detection and isolation of component failures cannot be based on direct comparisons among replicated components. Instead, the notion of 'analytic redundancy' must be employed for the FDI function. Unfortunately this makes the FDI function sensitive to modeling errors which are certain to exist in the large space structure problem due to model truncation and parameter uncertainty. This paper addresses the robustness to model error of one method of FDI residual generation - the failure detection filter. Initial designs were found to be extremely sensitive to modeling error. The sources of this sensitivity are analyzed and modifications to the design are suggested. The improved filter is shown to have much better visibility of the failure signatures relative to the background due to modeling error.

San Martin, A. M.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Adaptive Sampling of Spatiotemporal Phenomena with Optimization Criteria

This work was designed to find a way to optimally (or near optimally) sample spatiotemporal phenomena based on limited sensing capability, and to create a model that can be run to estimate uncertainties, as well as to estimate covariances. The goal was to maximize (or minimize) some function of the overall uncertainty. The uncertainties and covariances were modeled presuming a parametric distribution, and then the model was used to approximate the overall information gain, and consequently, the objective function from each potential sense. These candidate sensings were then crosschecked against operation costs and feasibility. Consequently, an operations plan was derived that combined both operational constraints/costs and sensing gain. Probabilistic modeling was used to perform an approximate inversion of the model, which enabled calculation of sensing gains, and subsequent combination with operational costs. This incorporation of operations models to assess cost and feasibility for specific classes of vehicles is unique.

Chien, Steve A.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Implementing Badhwar-O'Neill Galactic Cosmic Ray Model for the Analysis of Space Radiation Exposure

For the analysis of radiation risks to astronauts and planning exploratory space missions, accurate energy spectrum of galactic cosmic radiation (GCR) is necessary. Characterization of the ionizing radiation environment is challenging because the interplanetary plasma and radiation fields are modulated by solar disturbances and the radiation doses received by astronauts in interplanetary space are likewise influenced. A model of the Badhwar‐O'Neill 2011 (BO11) GCR environment, which is represented by GCR deceleration potential theta, has been derived by utilizing all of the GCR measurements from balloons, satellites, and the newer NASA Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE). In the BO11 model, the solar modulation level is derived from the mean international sunspot numbers with time‐delay, which has been calibrated with actual flight instrument measurements to produce better GCR flux data fit during solar minima. GCR fluxes provided by the BO11 model were compared with various spacecraft measurements at 1 AU, and further comparisons were made for the tissue equivalent proportional counters measurements at low Earth orbits using the high‐charge and energy transport (HZETRN) code and various GCR models. For the comparison of the absorbed dose and dose equivalent calculations with the measurements by Radiation Assessment Detector (RAD) at Gale crater on Mars, the intensities and energies of GCR entering the heliosphere were calculated by using the BO11 model, which accounts for time‐dependent attenuation of the local interstellar spectrum of each element. The BO11 model, which has emphasized for the last 24 solar minima, showed in relatively good agreement with the RAD data for the first 200 sols, but it was resulted in to be less well during near the solar maximum of solar cycle 24 due to subtleties in the changing heliospheric conditions. By performing the error analysis of the BO11 model and the optimization in reducing overall uncertainty, the resultant BO13 model corrects the fit at solar maxima as well as being accurate at solar minima. The BO13 model is implemented to the NASA Space Cancer Risk model for the assessment of radiation risks. Overall cumulative probability distribution of solar modulation parameters represents the percentile rank of the average interplanetary GCR environment, and the probabilistic radiation risks can be assessed for various levels of GCR environment to support mission design and operational planning for future manned space exploration missions.

Kim, Myung-Hee Y.↗
NASA NTRS2019

The Southern Ocean Sea Surface Temperature Response to Ozone Depletion: A Multi-Model Comparison

The effect of the Antarctic ozone hole extends downwards from the stratosphere, with clear signatures in surface weather patterns including a positive trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). Several recent studies have used coupled climate models to investigate the impact of these changes on Southern Ocean sea surface temperature (SST), notably motivated by the observed cooling from the late 1970s. Here we examine the robustness of these model results through comparison of both previously published and new simulations. We focus on the calculation of ‘climate response functions' (CRFs), transient responses to an instantaneous step-change in ozone concentrations. The CRF for most models consists of a rapid cooling of SST, followed by a slower warming trend. However, inter-model comparison reveals large uncertainties, such that even the sign of the impact of ozone depletion on historical SST, when reconstructed from the CRF, remains unconstrained. Comparison of these CRFs with SST responses to a hypothetical step-change in the SAM, inferred through lagged linear regression, shows broadly similar results. Causes of uncertainty are explored by examining relationships between model climatologies and their CRFs. The inter-model spread in CRFs can be reproduced by varying a single subgrid-scale mixing parameter within a single model. Antarctic sea-ice CRFs are also calculated: these do not generally exhibit the two-time-scale behavior of SST, suggesting a complex relationship between the two. Finally, by constraining model climatology-response relationships with observational values, we conclude that ozone depletion in unlikely to have been the primary driver of the observed SST cooling trend.

Climate response functions (CRF)↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Toward Enhancing the Use of IASI and CrIS Surface-Sensitive Radiances Over Land in the NASA GMAO GEOS Data Assimilation Framework

Assimilating surface-sensitive radiances over land is still challenging for both infrared (IR) and microwave (WV) radiances essentially because of the large uncertainties of the land physical surface emissivity model used in the Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM) and the uncertainties of land surface state properties. Currently very few IR radiances are assimilated over land. Large number of IR radiances are rejected by the surface sensitivity checks as well as the cloud detection check. In this study, we identified the appropriate Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) and Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) surface-sensitive channels to retrieve Land Surface Temperature (LST). Then, we studied the impacts of these retrieved LST and retuned cloud detection on the simulation and assimilation of IASI and CrIS in the NASA GEOS in clear sky conditions. The preliminary results are shown to enhance the rate of IASI and CrIS assimilated channels over land. The impacts on the quality of the resulting analysis and subsequent forecast will be presented at the meeting.

Niama Boukachaba↗
NASA NTRS2010

Sources of Uncertainty in Predicting Land Surface Fluxes Using Diverse Data and Models

In the domain of predicting land surface fluxes, models are used to bring data from large observation networks and satellite remote sensing together to make predictions about present and future states of the Earth. Characterizing the uncertainty about such predictions is a complex process and one that is not yet fully understood. Uncertainty exists about initialization, measurement and interpolation of input variables; model parameters; model structure; and mixed spatial and temporal supports. Multiple models or structures often exist to describe the same processes. Uncertainty about structure is currently addressed by running an ensemble of different models and examining the distribution of model outputs. To illustrate structural uncertainty, a multi-model ensemble experiment we have been conducting using the Terrestrial Observation and Prediction System (TOPS) will be discussed. TOPS uses public versions of process-based ecosystem models that use satellite-derived inputs along with surface climate data and land surface characterization to produce predictions of ecosystem fluxes including gross and net primary production and net ecosystem exchange. Using the TOPS framework, we have explored the uncertainty arising from the application of models with different assumptions, structures, parameters, and variable definitions. With a small number of models, this only begins to capture the range of possible spatial fields of ecosystem fluxes. Few attempts have been made to systematically address the components of uncertainty in such a framework. We discuss the characterization of uncertainty for this approach including both quantifiable and poorly known aspects.

Dungan, Jennifer L.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Arctic Amplification: Process Drivers and Sources of Uncertainty

Arctic amplification (AA) is a coupled atmosphere-sea ice-ocean process. This understanding has evolved from the early concept of AA, as a consequence of snow ice line progressions, through more than a century of research that has clarified the relevant processes and driving mechanisms of AA. The predictions made by early modeling studies, namely the fall/winter maximum, bottom-heavy structure, the prominence of surface albedo feedback, and the importance of stable stratification have withstood the scrutiny of multi-decadal observations and more complex models. Yet, the uncertainty in Arctic climate projections is larger than in any other region of the planet, making the assessment of high-impact, near-term regional changes difficult or impossible. Reducing this large spread in Arctic climate projections requires a quantitative process understanding. This presentation synthesizes current knowledge of AA and describes a set of recommendations to guide future research. It briefly reviews the history of AA science, summarizes observed Arctic changes, discusses modeling approaches and feedback diagnostics, and assesses the current understanding of the most relevant feedbacks to AA. These sections culminate in a conceptual model of the fundamental physical mechanisms causing AA and a collection of recommendations to accelerate progress towards reduced uncertainty in Arctic climate projections. Our conceptual model highlights the need to account for local feedback and remote process interactions within the context of the annual cycle to constrain projected AA.

Patrick C Taylor↗
NASA NTRS1979

Charge-exchange plasma environment for an ion drive spacecraft

The charge exchange plasma environment around a spacecraft that uses mercury ion thrusters for propulsion is described. The interactions between the plasma environment and the spacecraft are determined and a model which describes the propagation of the mercury charge exchange plasma is discussed. The model is extended to describe the flow of the molybdenum component of the charge exchange plasma. The uncertainties in the models for various conditions are discussed and current drain to the solar array, charge exchange plasma material deposition, and the effects of space plasma on the charge exchange plasma propagation are addressed.

Kaufman, H. R.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Discrepancies between theoretical and empirical models of the flaring solar chromosphere and their possible resolution

Possible sources of pronounced discrepancy between empirical and theoretical models of the solar chromosphere during flares are discussed. It is noted that a principal source of uncertainty in empirical models is the inhomogeneity of the spectral data on which they are based. With theoretical models, probably the most important source of error is neglect of the radiative coupling of upper and lower chromospheric regions. A new procedure for studying flare energy input is suggested wherein the required input is derived from the empirical model chromosphere. This procedure is applied to the electron-heated case, and it is found that the integral equation defining the flare energy deposition rate can be inverted analytically to yield the injected electron flux energy spectrum from knowledge of the energy balance in the empirical atmosphere. Recent empirical model results are analyzed in this manner, and the calculated injected electron flux spectrum is compared with that needed for hard X-ray bursts in moderately large flares.

Emslie, A. G.↗
NASA NTRS1973

The brightness temperature of Venus and the absolute flux-density scale at 608 MHz.

The disk temperature of Venus was measured at 608 MHz near the inferior conjunction of 1972, and a value of 498 plus or minus 33 K was obtained using a nominal CKL flux-density scale. The result is consistent with earlier measurements, but has a much smaller uncertainty. Our theoretical model prediction is larger by a factor of 1.21 plus or minus 0.09. This discrepancy has been noticed previously for frequencies below 1400 MHz, but was generally disregarded because of the large observational uncertainties. No way could be found to change the model to produce agreement without causing a conflict with well-established properties of Venus. Thus it is suggested that the flux-density scale may require an upward revision, at least near this frequency, in excess of what has previously been considered likely.

Muhleman, D. O.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Model Calculations of Solar Spectral Irradiance in the 3.7 Micron Band for Earth Remote Sensing Applications

Since the launch of the first Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) instrument aboard TIROS-N, measurements in the 3.7 micron atmospheric window have been exploited for use in cloud detection and screening, cloud thermodynamic phase and surface snow/ice discrimination, and quantitative cloud particle size retrievals. The utility of the band has led to the incorporation of similar channels on a number of existing satellite imagers and future operational imagers. Daytime observations in the band include both reflected solar and thermal emission energy. Since 3.7 micron channels are calibrated to a radiance scale (via onboard blackbodies), knowledge of the top-of-atmosphere solar irradiance in the spectral region is required to infer reflectance. Despite the ubiquity of 3.7 micron channels, absolute solar spectral irradiance data comes from either a single measurement campaign (Thekaekara et al. 1969) or synthetic spectra. In this study, we compare historical 3.7 micron band spectral irradiance data sets with the recent semi-empirical solar model of the quiet-Sun by Fontenla et al. (2006). The model has expected uncertainties of about 2 % in the 3.7 pm spectral region. We find that channel-averaged spectral irradiances using the observations reported by Thekaekara et al. are 3.2-4.1% greater than those derived from the Fontenla et al. model for MODIS and AVHRR instrument bandpasses; the Kurucz spectrum (1995) as included in the MODTRAN4 distribution, gives channel-averaged irradiances 1.2-1.5 % smaller than the Fontenla model. For the MODIS instrument, these solar irradiance uncertainties result in cloud microphysical retrievals uncertainties comparable with other fundamental reflectance error sources.

Platnick, Steven↗
NASA NTRS1985

Search for scattered X-ray halos around variable sources - The X-ray halo of Cygnus X-1

The results of a program to search for the presence of halos due to X-ray scattering by interstellar grains in the line-of-sight to variable X-ray sources are reported. As part of this program, four Einstein HRI images of Cyg X-1 were examined. The analysis technique exploits the intrinsic aperiodic variability of this source to map the point response function of the optics. Any scattered halo present will not reflect short-term central source time variability, since such variability is smoothed by differential time delays of order days. Thus, a residual, nonvariable component to the surface brightness distribution (comprising about 12 percent or more of the source flux) is interpreted as a scattered halo. The Cyg X-1 halo is consistent with those of other sources found in previous studies using different techniques. Comparison is also made with a scattering model and, despite uncertainties in source spectrum and distance, reasonable agreement with the observatons is found using a standard interstellar grain model. The potential of X-ray scattering as a probe of the properties of interstellar grains is demonstrated.

Bode, M. F.↗