Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Model prediction”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 829 records · Page 46
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1982

A numerical model simulation of the regional air pollution meteorology of the greater Chesapeake Bay area - Summer day case study

The mesoscale numerical model of the University of Virginia (UVMM), has been applied to the greater Chesapeake Bay area in order to provide a detailed description of the air pollution meteorology during a typical summer day. This model provides state of the art simulations for land-sea thermally induced circulations. The model-predicted results agree favorably with available observed data. The effects of synoptic flow and sea breeze coupling on air pollution meteorological characteristics in this region, are demonstrated by a spatial and temporal presentation of various model predicted fields. A transport analysis based on predicted wind velocities indicated possible recirculation of pollutants back onto the Atlantic coast due to the sea breeze circulation.

Segal, M.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Remote Sensing Program

Field spectroradiometric and airborne multispectral scanner data were related to vineyard yield and other agronomic variables in an attempt to determine the optimum wavelengths for yield prediction modeling. Reflections between vine canopy reflectance and several management practices were also considered. Spectral analysis of test vines found that, although some correlations with vine yield were significant, they were inadequate for producing a yield prediction model. The findings also indicate that the vines examined through the field spectroradiometers were not truly representative. Geologic linears identified from aerial photographys, LANDSAT images, and maps were compared to gas well locations in three New York' counties. Correlations were found between the dominant trends in regional liners and gas field boundaries and trends. Other projects being conducted under the grant include determining vegetable acreage in mucklands, site selection for windmills, spectral effects of sulfur dioxide, and screening tomato seedlings for salt tolerance.

Philipson, W. R.↗
NASA NTRS1993

A regional simulation of marine boundary-layer clouds

A regional version of a two-layer model is used to simulate marine boundary-layer clouds over an area (20 deg - 42 deg and 117 - 145 deg W) of the eastern North Pacific. The large-scale conditions requried for the model are provided by European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts analyses and the Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set. The simulated cloud-top height and fractional cloudiness are compared with satellite data. The model predicts a realistic pattern of cloud-top height, although the heights appear to be overestimated in the southwest and underestimated along the eastern border of the domain. The overall simulated cloudiness is qualitatively comparable to the satellite derived, but the model predicts excessive cloudiness over cold ocean surfaces and insufficient cloudiness over an area centered at 30 deg N, 130 deg W. The possible causes for these discrepancies are discussed. Budget studies show that horizontal advection contributes substantially to the cloud-top height and cloud-layer moisture budgets. Thus, one may need to consider the effects of horizontal advection when validating steady-state solutions of a one-dimensional model. The simulated cloudiness is shown to be sensitive to large-scale subsidence, moisture above the clouds, and drizzle. An increase in the large-scale divergence by 2 x 10(exp -6)/sec decreases average cloudiness for the area by 30%. An increase in the moisture at 850 mb by 2 g/kg increases the cloudiness by 20%. The suppression of drizzle in the model increases the cloudiness by 34% and significantly changes its pattern.

Wang, Shouping↗
NASA NTRS1978

Effect of the reaction HO2 + O3 yields OH + 2O2 on stratospheric ozone

It is noted that recent measurements of large values of the rate coefficient for the reaction NO + HO2 yields NO2 + OH lead to model predictions of excessive amounts of stratospheric ozone. This letter shows that a recent measurement of the rate coefficient (k2) for the reaction HO2 + O3 yields OH + 2O2 largely resolves these problems of excessive stratospheric ozone in models. A two-dimensional model of stratospheric trace constituents is used to calculate the concentrations of 35 constituents; the results are compared with experimental measurements of ozone column densities. It is found that the model predictions of excess ozone abundances diminish significantly when the measured value of k2 is employed.

Whitten, R. C.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Translation of Land Surface Model Accuracy and Uncertainty into Coupled Land-Atmosphere Prediction

Land-atmosphere (L-A) Interactions playa critical role in determining the diurnal evolution of both planetary boundary layer (PBL) and land surface heat and moisture budgets, as well as controlling feedbacks with clouds and precipitation that lead to the persistence of dry and wet regimes. Recent efforts to quantify the strength of L-A coupling in prediction models have produced diagnostics that integrate across both the land and PBL components of the system. In this study, we examine the impact of improved specification of land surface states, anomalies, and fluxes on coupled WRF forecasts during the summers of extreme dry (2006) and wet (2007) land surface conditions in the U.S. Southern Great Plains. The improved land initialization and surface flux parameterizations are obtained through the use of a new optimization and uncertainty estimation module in NASA's Land Information System (US-OPT/UE), whereby parameter sets are calibrated in the Noah land surface model and classified according to a land cover and soil type mapping of the observation sites to the full model domain. The impact of calibrated parameters on the a) spinup of the land surface used as initial conditions, and b) heat and moisture states and fluxes of the coupled WRF Simulations are then assessed in terms of ambient weather and land-atmosphere coupling along with measures of uncertainty propagation into the forecasts. In addition, the sensitivity of this approach to the period of calibration (dry, wet, average) is investigated. Finally, tradeoffs of computational tractability and scientific validity, and the potential for combining this approach with satellite remote sensing data are also discussed.

Santanello, Joseph A.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Using Wind Observations from Nearby Aircraft to Update the Optimal Descent Trajectory in Real-Time

The ability to meet a controlled time of arrival during a continuous descent operation will enable environmentally friendly and fuel efficient descent operations while simultaneously maintaining airport throughput. However, if the wind forecast used to compute the initial trajectory plan is not accurate enough, the guidance system will need to correct time deviations from the plan during the execution of the descent. Previous work proposed an on-board guidance strategy based on model predictive control, which repeatedly updates the trajectory plan in real-time from the current aircraft state and for the remainder of the descent. However, the wind conditions downstream, at altitudes not explored yet, were difficult to predict due to the lack of data. This paper shows the potential benefits of using wind observations, broadcast by nearby aircraft, to reconstruct the wind profile downstream. The wind profile in the trajectory optimization problem is modeled as a spline, which control points are updated to fit the observations before re-planning the trajectory. Results from simulations using realistic wind data show that the performance of model predictive control significantly improves when including up-to-date wind observations, in terms of time and energy errors at the metering fix and fuel consumption.

Dalmau, Ramon↗
NASA NTRS2010

Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessels (COPV) Stress Rupture Test: Part 2

One of the major concerns for the aging Space Shuttle fleet is the stress rupture life of composite overwrapped pressure vessels (COPVs). Stress rupture life of a COPY has been defined as the minimum time during which the composite maintains structural integrity considering the combined effects of stress levels and time. To assist in the evaluation of the aging COPVs in the Orbiter fleet an analytical reliability model was developed. The actual data used to construct this model was from testing of COPVs constructed of similar, but not exactly same materials and pressure cycles as used on Orbiter vessels. Since no actual Orbiter COPV stress rupture data exists the Space Shuttle Program decided to run a stress rupture test to compare to model predictions. Due to availability of spares, the testing was unfortunately limited to one 40" vessel. The stress rupture test was performed at maximum operating pressure at an elevated temperature to accelerate aging. The test was performed in two phases. The first phase, 130 F, a moderately accelerated test designed to achieve the midpoint of the model predicted point reliability. A more aggressive second phase, performed at 160 F, was designed to determine if the test article will exceed the 95% confidence interval ofthe model. In phase 3, the vessel pressure was increased to above maximum operating pressure while maintaining the phase 2 temperature. After reaching enough effectives hours to reach the 99.99% confidence level of the model phase 4 testing began when the temperature was increased to greater than 170 F. The vessel was maintained at phase 4 conditions until it failed after over 3 million effect hours. This paper will discuss the results of this test, it's implications and possible follow-on testing.

Russell, Richard↗
NASA NTRS2009

Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessels (COPV) Stress Rupture Test

One of the major concerns for the aging Space Shuttle fleet is the stress rupture life of composite overwrapped pressure vessels (COPVs). Stress rupture life of a COPV has been defined as the minimum time during which the composite maintains structural integrity considering the combined effects of stress levels and time. To assist in the evaluation of the aging COPVs in the Orbiter fleet an analytical reliability model was developed. The actual data used to construct this model was from testing of COPVs constructed of similar, but not exactly same materials and pressure cycles as used on Orbiter vessels. Since no actual Orbiter COPV stress rupture data exists the Space Shuttle Program decided to run a stress rupture test to compare to model predictions. Due to availability of spares, the testing was unfortunately limited to one 40" vessel. The stress rupture test was performed at maximum operating pressure at an elevated temperature to accelerate aging. The test was performed in two phases. The first phase, 130 F, a moderately accelerated test designed to achieve the midpoint of the model predicted point reliability. The more aggressive second phase, performed at 160 F was designed to determine if the test article will exceed the 95% confidence interval of the model. This paper will discuss the results of this test, it's implications and possible follow-on testing.

Russell, Richard↗
NASA NTRS1989

Overview of the fatigue/fracture/life working group program at the Lewis Research Center

Constitutive and life prediction models are developed and verified for materials typically used in hot gas path components of reusable space propulsion systems over the range of relevant operating environments. The efforts were centered on the development of crack initiation life prediction methods, while the efforts of a counterpart group were centered on the development of cyclic crack propagation life prediction methods. The complexion of the active tasks are presented. A significant new task started this year will incorporate the various material constitutive and life prediction models developed in this program into a comprehensive creep-fatigue damage analysis and life assessment computer code. The program will function as a postprocessor to general structural analysis programs (such as finite element or boundary element codes) using the output of such analyses (stress, strain, and temperature fields as functions of time) as the input to the damage analysis and life assessment code. The code will be designed to execute on engineering/scientific workstations and will feature a windowing, mouse-driven user interface. Current plans call for the code to be finished and made available for use in mid 1991.

Mcgaw, Michael A.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Development, improvement and application of atmospheric radiative transfer models for prediction of the climatic effects of clouds and aerosols

The demands of accurate predictions of radiative transfer for climate applications are well-documented. While much effort is being devoted to evaluating the accuracy of the GCM radiative transfer schemes, the problem of developing accurate, computationally efficient schemes for climate models still remains. This paper discusses our efforts in developing accurate and fast computational methods for global and regional climate models.

Bergstrom, Robert W.↗
NASA NTRS1989

High capacity demonstration of honeycomb panel heat pipes

The feasibility of performance enhancing the sandwich panel heat pipe was investigated for moderate temperature range heat rejection radiators on future-high-power spacecraft. The hardware development program consisted of performance prediction modeling, fabrication, ground test, and data correlation. Using available sandwich panel materials, a series of subscale test panels were augumented with high-capacity sideflow and temperature control variable conductance features, and test evaluated for correlation with performance prediction codes. Using the correlated prediction model, a 50-kW full size radiator was defined using methanol working fluid and closely spaced sideflows. A new concept called the hybrid radiator individually optimizes heat pipe components. A 2.44-m long hybrid test vehicle demonstrated proof-of-principle performance.

Tanzer, H. J.↗
NASA NTRS1994

A model to predict the conditions for liquid drop breakup and the resultant mean fragment size

The potential significance of drop fragmentation in sprays and other propulsion-related multiphase flows has been noted in the literature. This has motivated recent experimental and theoretical works to: better understand the fundamentals of physics of drop breakup processes, and develop models of drop fragmentation suitable for use in multiphase flow codes. The works summarized below aim to contribute to both sides of this two-pronged attack.

Wert, K. L.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Use of Landsat data to predict the trophic state of Minnesota lakes

Near-concurrent Landsat Multispectral Scanner (MSS) and ground data were obtained for 60 lakes distributed in two Landsat scene areas. The ground data included measurement of secchi disk depth, chlorophyll-a, total phosphorous, turbidity, color, and total nitrogen, as well as Carlson Trophic State Index (TSI) values derived from the first three parameters. The Landsat data best correlated with the TSI values. Prediction models were developed to classify some 100 'test' lakes appearing in the two analysis scenes on the basis of TSI estimates. Clouds, wind, poor image data, small lake size, and shallow lake depth caused some problems in lake TSI prediction. Overall, however, the Landsat-predicted TSI estimates were judged to be very reliable for the secchi-derived TSI estimation, moderately reliable for prediction of the chlorophyll-a TSI, and unreliable for the phosphorous value. Numerous Landsat data extraction procedures were compared, and the success of the Landsat TSI prediction models was a strong function of the procedure employed.

Lillesand, T. M.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Validation of Finite Element Crash Test Dummy Models for Predicting Orion Crew Member Injuries During a Simulated Vehicle Landing

A series of crash tests were conducted with dummies during simulated Orion crew module landings at the Wright-Patterson Air Force Base. These tests consisted of several crew configurations with and without astronaut suits. Some test results were collected and are presented. In addition, finite element models of the tests were developed and are presented. The finite element models were validated using the experimental data, and the test responses were compared with the computed results. Occupant crash data, such as forces, moments, and accelerations, were collected from the simulations and compared with injury criteria to assess occupant survivability and injury. Some of the injury criteria published in the literature is summarized for completeness. These criteria were used to determine potential injury during crew impact events.

Tabiei, Al↗
NASA NTRS1988

Global distribution of seamounts from Seasat profiles

A new measurement techique based on a model of a Gaussian seamount loading a thin elastic lithosphere was developed to analyze seamounts that, until then, were not surveyed or seamounts with poor bathymetric coverage. The model predicts that the seamount diameter is equal to the peak-to-trough distance along the vertical deflection profile and that the flexural diameter of a seamount is related to the age of the lithosphere when the seamount formed. This model also suggests that these two measurements are relatively insensitive to the cross-track location from the seamount. These model predictions were confirmed using Seasat altimeter profiles crossing 14 surveyed seamounts in the Pacific. The analysis of the seamount distribution indicated considerable variations in population density and type across the oceans. Most notable among them are the absence of seamounts in the Atlantic, variations in population density across large fracture zones in the Pacific, and the prevalence of small signatures in the Indian Ocean.

Craig, Claire H.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Analysis of earth albedo effect on sun sensor measurements based on theoretical model and mission experience

Analysis of flight data from previous missions indicates that anomalous Sun sensor readings could be caused by Earth albedo interference. A previous Sun sensor study presented a detailed mathematical model of this effect. The model can be used to study the effect of both diffusive and specular reflections and to improve Sun angle determination based on perturbed Sun sensor measurements, satellite position, and an approximate knowledge of attitude. The model predicts that diffuse reflected light can cause errors of up to 10 degrees in Coarse Sun Sensor (CSS) measurements and 5 to 10 arc sec in Fine Sun Sensor (FSS) measurements, depending on spacecraft orbit and attitude. The accuracy of these sensors is affected as long as part of the illuminated Earth surface is present in the sensor field of view. Digital Sun Sensors (DSS) respond in a different manner to the Earth albedo interference. Most of the time DSS measurements are not affected, but for brief periods of time the Earth albedo can cause errors which are a multiple of the sensor least significant bit and may exceed one degree. This paper compares model predictions with Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) CSS measurements in order to validate and refine the model. Methods of reducing and mitigating the impact of Earth albedo are discussed. ne CSS sensor errors are roughly proportional to the Earth albedo coefficient. Photocells that are sensitive only to ultraviolet emissions would reduce the effective Earth albedo by up to a thousand times, virtually eliminating all errors caused by Earth albedo interference.

Brasoveanu, Dan↗
NASA NTRS2024

Evolving Particles in the 2022 Hunga-Tonga Hunga-Ha’apai Volcano Eruption Plume

The Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) aboard NASA’s Terra satellite observed the Hunga Tonga—Hunga Ha’apai (HTHH) 15 January eruption plume on eight occasions between 15 and 23 January 2022. From the MISR multi-angle, multi-spectral imagery we retrieve aerosol plume height geometrically, along with plume-level motion vectors, and derive radiometrically constraints on particle effective size, shape, and light-absorption properties. Parts of two downwind aerosol layers were observed in different places and times, one concentrated in the upper troposphere (11-18 km ASL), and a mid-stratosphere layer~23 –30+ km ASL. After the initial day (1/15), the retrievals identified only spherical, non-light-absorbing particles, typical of volcanic sulfate/water particles. The near-tropopause plume particles show constant, medium-small (several tenths of a micron) effective size over four days. The mid-stratosphere particles were consistently smaller, but retrieved effective particle size increased between 1/17 and 1/23, though they might have decreased slightly on 1/22. As a vast amount of water was also injected into the stratosphere by this eruption, models predicted relatively rapid sulfate particle growth from the modest amounts of SO2 gas injected by the eruption to high altitudes along with the water (Zhu et al, 2022). MISR observations up to ten days after the eruption are consistent with these model predictions. The possible decrease in stratospheric particle size after initial growth was likely caused by evaporation, as the plume mixed with drier, ambient air. Particles in the lower-elevation plume observed on 1/15 were larger than all the downwind aerosols and contained significant non-spherical (likely ash) particles.

aerosol plume height↗
NASA NTRS2001

A Winning Cast

Howmet Research Corporation was the first to commercialize an innovative cast metal technology developed at Auburn University, Auburn, Alabama. With funding assistance from NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center, Auburn University's Solidification Design Center (a NASA Commercial Space Center), developed accurate nickel-based superalloy data for casting molten metals. Through a contract agreement, Howmet used the data to develop computer model predictions of molten metals and molding materials in cast metal manufacturing. Howmet Metal Mold (HMM), part of Howmet Corporation Specialty Products, of Whitehall, Michigan, utilizes metal molds to manufacture net shape castings in various alloys and amorphous metal (metallic glass). By implementing the thermophysical property data from by Auburn researchers, Howmet employs its newly developed computer model predictions to offer customers high-quality, low-cost, products with significantly improved mechanical properties. Components fabricated with this new process replace components originally made from forgings or billet. Compared with products manufactured through traditional casting methods, Howmet's computer-modeled castings come out on top.

Source record↗