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At least 829 records · Page 46

A hierarchical gray-box dynamic modeling methodology for direct-expansion cooling systems to support control stability analysis; Méthodologie de modélisation dynamique hiérarchique de type boîte grise pour les systèmes de refroidissement à détente directe afin de soutenir l'analyse de stabilité de la commande

In this paper, a gray-box dynamic modeling approach for direct-expansion cooling systems is presented. The overall approach incorporates a multi-stage training procedure that consists of 1) identification of component sub-models from quasi-steady-state performance data, 2) system model integration with estimation of refrigerant charge and 3) fine tuning of thermal capacitances of the evaporator and condenser to capture the system dynamic responses. Compared to traditional physics-based models, the proposed modeling approach has advantages including reduced engineering efforts in the model development phase, improved computational efficiency and enhanced prediction accuracy. The modeling method was validated using a 3-ton variable-speed heat pump and proved to be capable of accurately predicting the system transient behaviors over a wide range of operating conditions. The established dynamic model was then applied for control stability analysis, with a specific goal of determining a proper control execution time step. The case study results showed that the stable control execution time step could change significantly, from 3 sec to 19 sec, as the operating conditions and control settings vary, and a proper selection of the execution time step is critical to ensure stable and reliable operations.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Wind Energy Forecasting with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model

This was a collaborative effort between Lawrence Livermore National Security, LLC as manager and operator of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) and Siemens Energy, Inc. (Siemens) to develop a wind resource forecasting tool. LLNL was to develop an independent high-resolution mesoscale modeling capability forecasting tool that could be implemented in conjunction with existing wind farm control and monitoring software to provide forecasting of wind resources using local observations of winds and temperature. Research with LLNL’s state-of-the-art large-eddy simulation meteorological prediction model, based on the community WRF model and innovative turbulence parameterizations, would improve that model’s applicability to large wind farms offshore and in complex terrain. The modeling capability would include uncertainty quantification. Finally, the application of the modeling tool and existing global climate change predictions would enable the delineation of the likely effects of climate change on wind resources. Siemens was to provide high time resolution hub-height wind speed and other meteorological data streams, including temperature profiles from wind farms, for LLNL to incorporate into the modeling system, to validate and tune this forecasting model for their locations of interest. These data streams would also be used for longer-term studies of correlations of wind resources to climate oscillations to indicate how long-term climate change trends may affect the available wind resource. Siemens would also provide information and observations of turbine wakes for incorporation into the modeling tool. By implementing state-of-the-art turbulence parameterizations into a simulation model and/or ensembles of simulation models, and by integrating real-time hub height wind speed and other meteorological datastreams from wind farms into that model or ensemble of models, LLNL would develop a forecasting tool that could be implemented by Siemens as an add-on to existing wind farm control and monitoring software to provide owners with useful resource forecasting. The desired outcome was that the accuracy level of the output would be sufficient to substantiate power output commitments. The final deliverable for this work would consist of a document outlining the algorithms and software tools that could be integrated into Siemens Wind Park Supervisor.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Holocene paleoclimate change in the western US: The importance of chronology in discerning patterns and drivers

We report sediment in lakes and meadows forms a powerful archive that can be used to reconstruct environmental change through time. Reconstructions of lake level, of chemical, biological, and hydrological conditions, and of surrounding vegetation provide detailed information about past climate conditions, both locally and regionally. Indeed, most of our current knowledge of centennial- to millennial-scale climate variability in the arid western United States, where information about past hydroclimate is particularly important, comes from such sediment-based reconstructions. The pressing need for robust, precise predictions of future conditions is a significant motivation for paleoclimate science, and current research questions frequently require Holocene reconstructions to be resolved at sub-centennial timescales. Increasingly, regional syntheses seek to identify synoptic-scale patterns similar to those defined from modern observations (seasonal, interannual, multi-decadal, etc.) or to compare with the output of climate model simulations. However, the age control on existing records, especially those more than about 20 years old, is often sufficient only for millennial-scale interpretation. Here we assess the age control for 84 published and unpublished records from lakes and meadows in the Great Basin, California, and desert southwest, and use Bayesian modeling to evaluate the 95% uncertainty ranges for the 42 best-dated records. In the Late Holocene, about half of the 42 records have <400-year mean uncertainty ranges; however, high-precision age control is especially critical for young records, used to develop an accurate understanding of a proxy’s response to known climate variations. In the Middle Holocene, records vary from 400 to >800-year mean uncertainty and records of the Early Holocene have 600- to >1400-year mean uncertainty ranges. We find that the largest control on modeled uncertainties is dating density, with at least 2 dates/kyr being optimal and suggest obtaining “range-finder” dates at the onset of a study to better predict the total number of dates needed for an adequate age model. Such a density avoids a commonly observed phenomenon of significant peaks in uncertainty arising in gaps between age control points. Analysis of the uncertainties associated with proxy shifts reveal that more than half are >400 years. Although such large uncertainties currently prevent sub-centennial interpretations in most cases, increased dating density, strategic use of limited funds (including budgeting for a 2 date/kyr minimum at the proposal stage), construction of age-depth models with Bayesian methods, and critical evaluation of chronological uncertainty will shed light on past climate variability at finer timescales, enhancing our understanding of global and regional drivers of western U.S. climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Microwave Debinding of Ceramics Produced by Additive Manufacturing

Microwave-assisted debinding offers an innovative approach to processing 3D-printed engineering ceramics. Ceramic parts produced with photopolymer-based additive manufacturing techniques require thermal debinding to remove polymers that bind ceramic particles during the printing process. Microwave-assisted debinding significantly reduces processing times and offers energy savings over conventional thermal treatments due to higher heating rates and more uniform heating. Finite-element modeling of the debinding process allows for the optimization and prediction of temperature distribution, stress development, and potential defects, leading to improved process control and material quality.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Chirality manipulation of ultrafast phase switches in a correlated CDW-Weyl semimetal

Light engineering of correlated states in topological materials provides a new avenue of achieving exotic topological phases inaccessible by conventional tuning methods. Here we demonstrate a light control of correlation gaps in a model charge-density-wave (CDW) and polaron insulator (TaSe 4 ) 2 I recently predicted to be an axion insulator. Our ultrafast terahertz photocurrent spectroscopy reveals a two-step, non-thermal melting of polarons and electronic CDW gap via the fluence dependence of a longitudinal circular photogalvanic current. This helicity-dependent photocurrent reveals continuous ultrafast phase switches from the polaronic state to the CDW (axion) phase, and finally to a hidden Weyl phase as the pump fluence increases. Additional distinctive attributes aligning with the light-induced switches include: the mode-selective coupling of coherent phonons to the polaron and CDW modulation, and the emergence of a non-thermal chiral photocurrent above the pump threshold of CDW-related phonons. The demonstrated ultrafast chirality control of correlated topological states here holds large potentials for realizing axion electrodynamics and advancing quantum-computing applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Multi-Commodity Traffic Signal Control and Routing With Connected Vehicles

We report a real-time traffic management policy that integrates traffic signal control and multi-commodity routing of connected vehicles in networks with multiple destinations is developed. The proposed policy is based on a multi-commodity formulation of the store-and-forward model and assumes all vehicles are able to exchange information with the infrastructure. Vehicles share information about their current location and final destination. Based on this information, the strategy determines both optimized signal timings at every intersection and vehicle-specific routing information at every link of the network. The control actions, i.e., signal times and routing information, are updated at every cycle and delivered by a finite horizon optimal control problem cast into a rolling horizon framework. The underlying optimization problem is convex, and thus the method is suitable for real-time operation in large networks. The method is validated via a micro-simulation study in networks with up to twenty intersections and, in all simulations, outperforms a real-time traffic-responsive signal control strategy that is based on a single-commodity store-and-forward model. The scalable computation effort for increasing network sizes and prediction horizon confirms the computational efficiency of the method.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Vector-level feedforward control of LPBF melt pool area using a physics-based thermal model

Laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) is an additive manufacturing technique that has gained popularity thanks to its ability to produce geometrically complex, fully dense metal parts. However, these parts are prone to internal defects and geometric inaccuracies, stemming in part from variations in the melt pool. Here, this paper proposes a novel vector-level feedforward control framework for regulating melt pool area in LPBF. By decoupling part-scale thermal behavior from small-scale melt pool physics, the controller provides a scale-agnostic prediction of melt pool area and efficient optimization over it. This is done by operating on two coupled lightweight models: a finite-difference thermal model that efficiently captures vector-level temperature fields and a reduced-order, analytical melt pool model. Each model is calibrated separately with minimal single-track and 2D experiments, and the framework is validated on a complex 3D geometry in both Inconel 718 and 316L stainless steel. Results showed that feedforward vector-level laser power scheduling reduced geometric inaccuracy in key dimensions by 62%, overall porosity by 16.5%, and photodiode root-mean-squared deviation by 38.5% on average. Overall, this modular, data-efficient approach demonstrates that proactively compensating for known thermal effects can significantly improve part quality while remaining computationally efficient and readily extensible to other materials and machines.

Additive manufacturing↗

(Project 18-15502) Reducing Uncertainty in Radionuclide Transport Prediction Using Multiple Environmental Tracers (Final Report)

In order to successfully site and design a nuclear waste disposal facility, DOE scientists are required to show safe containment of the radioactive waste for up to 1 million years. A significant hurdle to accurately and convincingly demonstrating disposal safety is predicting the fate of radioactive elements once they enter the groundwater system surrounding the repository. These predictions are often made with computer models, which contain accurate physics of groundwater movement and chemical reactions that occur during groundwater flow. As computer power increases, the physics and chemistry of these computer simulators can become more and more realistic and the physically based error decreases. However, the ability of these computer models to provide accurate predictions in a specific place, over long time periods, requires the scientists and engineers to know the subsurface properties of the Earth that control groundwater movement. In particular, groundwater scientists and engineers need to know the groundwater fluid velocity, which can change over time and strongly vary with location within the groundwater system. Because the Earth’s subsurface cannot be directly seen, and can only be sampled at drilling locations, the properties of the groundwater system are never known completely, and computer models of groundwater transport will always have some amount of uncertainty. This project’s principal goal was to use chemicals and isotope “tracers”, which have been introduced to the groundwater system by natural processes over long time periods, to help inform computer models of the groundwater velocity and subsurface properties. The goal was to calculate how much better predictions of groundwater transport were when these “tracers” were used to inform the computer models.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Explainable discrepancy checker and diagnosis for digital Twin-based supervisory control system

By virtually representing a physical object and process, a digital twin (DT) enables optimal autonomous operations by combining classical and novel frameworks in sensors, state predictions, and multi-input/multi-output systems. A DT’s values depend on how well models estimate quantities of interest and on how uncertainty is handled. Moreover, DTs often combine physics-based and data-driven models with mixed fidelities, where classical uncertainty quantification (UQ) struggles with many sources of uncertainty and real-time constraints. Here, this work presents a UQ-based discrepancy checking and diagnosis tool for a DT-based supervisory control system. The tool is developed using metadata from an automated DT development process to learn correlations between sources of uncertainties and outcomes. During operation, it compares predictions with measurements, attributes discrepancies to dominant sources, and recommends parameter and configuration updates. We verify the workflow on a synthetic temperature-control problem and deploy it on a virtual Thermal Energy Delivery System, reducing mismatch and improving control robustness.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Numerical framework for integrated additive manufacturing-compression molding (AM-CM) of thermoplastic composites

Additive manufacturing-compression molding (AM-CM) has emerged as a transformative technology in advanced composite manufacturing. Additive manufacturing (AM) offers high design flexibility and the ability to produce complex geometries with precisely aligned fibers in the preferred orientation. Compression molding (CM) enhances composite materials by providing excellent dimensional stability, reduced porosity, high production rates, and a smooth surface finish. Despite these advantages, extensive integrated analysis is required to optimize processing conditions for improved fiber orientation distribution (FOD) and porosity control. Here, this study develops a comprehensive numerical model to simulate the AM-CM manufacturing process. The model isolates the effects of both the AM and CM phases while also capturing their integration. Additionally, it accounts for heat transfer, temperature-dependent viscosity, and fiber orientation in the extruded fiber-filled polymer, accurately representing material behavior during processing. This approach enables the analysis of interactions between deposited beads of complex strand shapes and their interface regions after full compression. Moreover, the model predicts key parameters such as polymer flowability, fiber orientation, and temperature evolution in AM-CM parts. By optimizing processing conditions, it facilitates a controlled and predictable microstructure.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Spin-on deposition of amorphous zeolitic imidazolate framework films for lithography applications

Amorphous zeolitic imidazolate framework (aZIF) films have been recently introduced as resists for electron beam and extreme ultraviolet lithography. aZIFs are also being considered for separation applications, including thin film membranes. However, the reported methods for aZIF deposition are currently based on highly empirical trial-and-error approaches that hinder control of film composition, thickness and uniformity as well as scale-up and transferability to different coating geometries. This work presents a method for depositing aZIF films with controllable thickness using dilute precursors mixed immediately before encountering the substrate. Importantly, the method is amenable to quantitative analysis by computational fluid dynamics to extract intrinsic deposition rates and limiting reactant transport diffusivities, enabling predictive physics-based modeling of the deposition process. This allows the deposition method to be adapted for spin coating on silicon wafers to prepare high-quality aZIF films with consistently controlled thickness. Using this approach, high-resolution resist performance and wafer-scale use for beyond extreme-ultraviolet lithography of aZIF films is demonstrated.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

A Privacy Preserving Model-Free Optimization and Control Framework for Demand Response from Residential Thermal Loads

We consider the problem of optimizing the cost of procuring electricity for a large collection of homes managed by a load serving entity, by pre-cooling or pre-heating the thermal inertial loads in the homes to avoid procuring power during periods of peak electricity pricing. We would like to accomplish this objective in a completely privacy-preserving and model-free manner, that is, without direct access to the state variables (temperatures or power consumption) or the dynamical models (thermal characteristics) of individual homes, while guaranteeing personal comfort constraints of the consumers. We propose a two-stage optimization and control framework to address this problem. In the first stage, we use a long short-term memory (LSTM) network to predict hourly electricity prices, based on historical pricing data and weather forecasts. Given the hourly price forecast and thermal models of the homes, the problem of designing an optimal power consumption trajectory that minimizes the total electricity procurement cost for the collection of thermal loads can be formulated as a large-scale integer program (with millions of variables) due to the on-off cyclical dynamics of such loads. We provide a simple heuristic relaxation to make this large-scale optimization problem model-free and computationally tractable. In the second stage, we translate the results of this optimization problem into distributed open-loop control laws that can be implemented at individual homes without measuring or estimating their state variables, while simultaneously ensuring consumer comfort constraints. We demonstrate the performance of this approach on a large-scale test case comprising of 500 homes in the Houston area and benchmark its performance against a direct model-based optimization and control solution.

Sivaranjani, S.↗

Identifying Key Drivers of Wildfires in the Contiguous US Using Machine Learning and Game Theory Interpretation

Abstract Understanding the complex interrelationships between wildfire and its environmental and anthropogenic controls is crucial for wildfire modeling and management. Although machine learning (ML) models have yielded significant improvements in wildfire predictions, their limited interpretability has been an obstacle for their use in advancing understanding of wildfires. This study builds an ML model incorporating predictors of local meteorology, land‐surface characteristics, and socioeconomic variables to predict monthly burned area at grid cells of 0.25° × 0.25° resolution over the contiguous United States. Besides these predictors, we construct and include predictors representing the large‐scale circulation patterns conducive to wildfires, which largely improves the temporal correlations in several regions by 14%–44%. The Shapley additive explanation is introduced to quantify the contributions of the predictors to burned area. Results show a key role of longitude and latitude in delineating fire regimes with different temporal patterns of burned area. The model captures the physical relationship between burned area and vapor pressure deficit, relative humidity (RH), and energy release component (ERC), in agreement with the prior findings. Aggregating the contribution of predictor variables of all the grids by region, analyses show that ERC is the major contributor accounting for 14%–27% to large burned areas in the western US. In contrast, there is no leading factor contributing to large burned areas in the eastern US, although large‐scale circulation patterns featuring less active upper‐level ridge‐trough and low RH two months earlier in winter contribute relatively more to large burned areas in spring in the southeastern US.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Assembly of short amphiphilic peptoids into nanohelices with controllable supramolecular chirality

Abstract A long-standing challenge in bioinspired materials is to design and synthesize synthetic materials that mimic the sophisticated structures and functions of natural biomaterials, such as helical protein assemblies that are important in biological systems. Herein, we report the formation of a series of nanohelices from a type of well-developed protein-mimetics called peptoids. We demonstrate that nanohelix structures and supramolecular chirality can be well-controlled through the side-chain chemistry. Specifically, the ionic effects on peptoids from varying the polar side-chain groups result in the formation of either single helical fiber or hierarchically stacked helical bundles. We also demonstrate that the supramolecular chirality of assembled peptoid helices can be controlled by modifying assembling peptoids with a single chiral amino acid side chain. Computational simulations and theoretical modeling predict that minimizing exposure of hydrophobic domains within a twisted helical form presents the most thermodynamically favorable packing of these amphiphilic peptoids and suggests a key role for both polar and hydrophobic domains on nanohelix formation. Our findings establish a platform to design and synthesize chiral functional materials using sequence-defined synthetic polymers.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Genome-scale metabolic reconstruction of 7,302 human microorganisms for personalized medicine

The human microbiome influences the efficacy and safety of a wide variety of commonly prescribed drugs. Designing precision medicine approaches that incorporate microbial metabolism would require strain- and molecule-resolved, scalable computational modeling. Here, we extend our previous resource of genome-scale metabolic reconstructions of human gut microorganisms with a greatly expanded version. AGORA2 (assembly of gut organisms through reconstruction and analysis, version 2) accounts for 7,302 strains, includes strain-resolved drug degradation and biotransformation capabilities for 98 drugs, and was extensively curated based on comparative genomics and literature searches. The microbial reconstructions performed very well against three independently assembled experimental datasets with an accuracy of 0.72 to 0.84, surpassing other reconstruction resources and predicted known microbial drug transformations with an accuracy of 0.81. We demonstrate that AGORA2 enables personalized, strain-resolved modeling by predicting the drug conversion potential of the gut microbiomes from 616 patients with colorectal cancer and controls, which greatly varied between individuals and correlated with age, sex, body mass index and disease stages. AGORA2 serves as a knowledge base for the human microbiome and paves the way to personalized, predictive analysis of host–microbiome metabolic interactions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

A high spatial resolution land surface phenology dataset for AmeriFlux and NEON sites

Abstract Vegetation phenology is a key control on water, energy, and carbon fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems. Because vegetation canopies are heterogeneous, spatially explicit information related to seasonality in vegetation activity provides valuable information for studies that use eddy covariance measurements to study ecosystem function and land-atmosphere interactions. Here we present a land surface phenology (LSP) dataset derived at 3 m spatial resolution from PlanetScope imagery across a range of plant functional types and climates in North America. The dataset provides spatially explicit information related to the timing of phenophase changes such as the start, peak, and end of vegetation activity, along with vegetation index metrics and associated quality assurance flags for the growing seasons of 2017–2021 for 10 × 10 km windows centred over 104 eddy covariance towers at AmeriFlux and National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) sites. These LSP data can be used to analyse processes controlling the seasonality of ecosystem-scale carbon, water, and energy fluxes, to evaluate predictions from land surface models, and to assess satellite-based LSP products.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

The structure of dissipative dark matter halos

Dissipative dark matter self-interactions can affect halo evolution and change its structure. We perform a series of controlled N-body simulations to study impacts of the dissipative interactions on halo properties. The interplay between gravitational contraction and collisional dissipation can significantly speed up the onset of gravothermal collapse, resulting in a steep inner density profile. For reasonable choices of model parameters controlling the dissipation, the collapse timescale can be a factor of 10–100 shorter than that predicted in purely elastic self-interacting dark matter. The effect is maximized when energy loss per collision is comparable to characteristic kinetic energy of dark matter particles in the halo. Our simulations provide guidance for testing the dissipative nature of dark matter with astrophysical observations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Automated experimental design of safe rampdowns via probabilistic machine learning

Abstract Typically the rampdown phase of a shot consists of a decrease in current and injected power and optionally a change in shape, but there is considerable flexibility in the rate, sequencing, and duration of these changes. On the next generation of tokamaks it is essential that this is done safely as the device could be damaged by the stored thermal and electromagnetic energy present in the plasma. This works presents a procedure for automatically choosing experimental rampdown designs to rapidly converge to an effective rampdown trajectory. This procedure uses probabilistic machine learning methods paired with acquisition functions taken from Bayesian optimization. In a set of 2022 experiments at DIII-D, the rampdown designs produced by our method maintained plasma control down to substantially lower current and energy levels than are typically observed. The actions predicted by the model significantly improved as the model was able to explore over the course of the experimental campaign.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗