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At least 829 records · Page 46

Numerical investigation of equivalence ratio effects on Flex-Fuel mixing controlled combustion enabled by prechamber ignition

There is interest in adapting renewable and low-carbon intensity fuels to heavy-duty engines to help displace criteria and greenhouse gas emissions associated with diesel combustion. Low-carbon fuels have inherently low cetane numbers and thus pose a significant challenge when considering direct substitution in diesel combustion systems. Use of an actively fueled prechamber as an ignition source to initiate mixing-controlled combustion (PC-MCC) of low-cetane fuels is becoming an attractive combustion mode to alleviate the identified reactivity deficit. This work focuses on the utilization of an active prechamber to facilitate diesel-like combustion of bioethanol-gasoline fuel blends in a heavy-duty engine. Recent results in this emerging technology suggest that ignition quality is uniquely coupled to prechamber equivalence ratio. In this numerical study, the fundamental implications of prechamber equivalence ratio on the ignition performance of direct injected fuels ranging from E10 to E100 are investigated using CONVERGE. Parametric studies of the prechamber operating strategy were assessed at diesel-like conditions to characterize the performance trends relative to a diesel baseline at the same boundary conditions. Simulation results indicate that PC-MCC is flex-fuel capable and achieves diesel-like ignition qualities and combustion processes for all fuels considered under stoichiometric and rich prechamber conditions. To characterize the equivalence ratio trends observed, a novel inflow boundary modeling technique was utilized to prescribe turbulent jets in place of the prechamber where selective speciation of the jet composition was conducted to isolate the ignition contributions of radical and reacting species in lean, stoichiometric, and rich jets. The inflow boundary modeling suggests that excess fuel and combustion intermediates present in jets produced from stratified and fuel-rich prechamber operation promotes higher jet temperatures and as such are superior ignition sources. Relative to a lean prechamber jet, the peak temperature of a reacting jet from a rich prechamber was up to 600 K hotter at fixed distances from the orifice exit. Furthermore, radicals also demonstrated an influence on the ignition process, but the combustion mode was identified to be thermally dominant.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Latent map Gaussian processes for mixed variable metamodeling

Gaussian processes (GPs) are ubiquitously used in sciences and engineering as metamodels. Standard GPs, however, can only handle numerical or quantitative variables. Here we introduce latent map Gaussian processes (LMGPs) that inherit the attractive properties of GPs and are also applicable to mixed data which have both quantitative and qualitative inputs. The core idea behind LMGPs is to learn a continuous, low-dimensional latent space or manifold which encodes all qualitative inputs. To learn this manifold, we first assign a unique prior vector representation to each combination of qualitative inputs. We then use a low-rank linear map to project these priors on a manifold that characterizes the posterior representations. As the posteriors are quantitative, they can be directly used in any standard correlation function such as the Gaussian or Matern. Hence, the optimal map and the corresponding manifold, along with other hyperparameters of the correlation function, can be systematically learned via maximum likelihood estimation. Through a wide range of analytic and real-world examples, we demonstrate the advantages of LMGPs over state-of-the-art methods in terms of accuracy and versatility. In particular, we show that LMGPs can handle variable-length inputs, have an explainable neural network interpretation, and provide insights into how qualitative inputs affect the response or interact with each other. We also employ LMGPs in Bayesian optimization and illustrate that they can discover optimal compound compositions more efficiently than conventional methods that convert compositions to qualitative variables via manual featurization.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Influence of gasoline fuel formulation on lean autoignition in a mixed-mode-combustion (deflagration/autoignition) engine

We report stoichiometric spark-ignition engines suffer efficiency penalties due to throttling losses at low loads, a low specific-heat ratio of the stoichiometric working fluid, and limits on compression ratio due to end-gas autoignition leading to undesirable knocking. Mixed-Mode Combustion (MMC) mitigates these shortcomings by using a lean working fluid where a spark-initiated pilot-stabilized deflagrative flame front is followed by controlled end-gas autoignition. This MMC study investigates the effects of initial conditions (intake air temperature, intake pressure, equivalence ratio, and intake oxygen fraction) on autoignition tendency of four gasoline-range fuels with varying properties and composition. The use of fuels with varying octane sensitivity (S) allowed exploring the importance of low-temperature heat release in triggering autoignition. Fuels with high S were less reactive for conditions that promote low-temperature chemistry (operation at high intake air pressure or without N2 dilution). Conversely, an Alkylate fuel with low S showed a greater autoignition resistance at operating conditions that were unfavorable for low-temperature chemistry. Next, the effect of residual gas composition on autoignition tendency of fuels was examined with a chemical-kinetics model. Among the various molecules in the residual gas, nitric oxide (NO) enhanced the low-temperature chemistry and increased the autoignition tendency most significantly. The fuels’ autoignition response to increasing NO amount corroborates the experimental observations. Next, the sequential autoignition of the end-gas was assessed to be less impacted by thermal stratification because of lean mixtures showing relatively less low-temperature chemistry, when compared to stoichiometric mixtures. Next, the effect of changing equivalence ratio on the autoignition was found to be similar for all fuels, regardless of their S. With changing intake air temperature, the response of fuels’ autoignition tendency depended on the dilution level used. At high dilution (i.e. low intake [O2]), fuels’ reactivity increased with increasing intake air temperature. In contrast, for operation without dilution, the autoignition tendency of the low-S Alkylate fuel decreased with increasing intake air temperature, while that of high-S High Cycloalkane fuel still increased with increasing intake air temperature. In conclusion, conventional octane metrics (RON and MON) have utility in assessing the autoignition tendency under lean MMC operation. Moreover, the fuel requirements for MMC align with that of stoichiometric operation: i.e., high RON and high S fuels are desirable for stable non-knocking operation.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

A mixed integer linear programming approach for the design of chemical process families

Tackling climate change goals requires widespread deployment of process technology variants across many decentralized sites with different geographical, environmental, and operational requirements. Conventional engineering approaches focus on unique designs for each installation (process variant), while missing opportunities for manufacturing standardization. Here, instead we seek to optimize a process platform of common unit designs while simultaneously designing an entire family of process variants that make use of that platform. This reduces engineering effort, deployment timelines, and manufacturing costs. We propose a nonlinear generalized disjunctive programming formulation and convert this to an efficient mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) formulation through discretization of the design space. We formulate our optimization in Pyomo with costing from IDAES, and we demonstrate the computational performance and solution quality on a water treatment desalination system from the PARETO framework and a carbon capture system built in Aspen Plus as part of CCSI2.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

A GPU accelerated mixed-precision Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics framework with cell-based relative coordinates

Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) is essential for modeling complex large-deformation problems across various applications, requiring significant computational power. A major portion of SPH computation time is dedicated to the Nearest Neighboring Particle Search (NNPS) process. While advanced NNPS algorithms have been developed to enhance SPH efficiency, the potential efficiency gains from modern computation hardware remain underexplored. Here, this study investigates the impact of GPU parallel architecture, low-precision computing on GPUs, and GPU memory management on NNPS efficiency. Our approach employs a GPU-accelerated mixed-precision SPH framework, utilizing low precision float-point 16 (FP16) for NNPS while maintaining high precision for other components. To ensure FP16 accuracy in NNPS, we introduce a Relative Coordinated-based Link List (RCLL) algorithm, storing FP16 relative coordinates of particles within background cells. Our testing results show three significant speedup rounds for CPU-based NNPS algorithms. The first comes from parallel GPU computations, with up to a 1000x efficiency gain. The second is achieved through low-precision GPU computing, where the proposed FP16-based RCLL algorithm offers a 1.5x efficiency improvement over the FP64-based approach on GPUs. By optimizing GPU memory bandwidth utilization, the efficiency of the FP16 RCLL algorithm can be further boosted by 2.7x, as demonstrated in an example with 1 million particles. Our code is released at https://github.com/pnnl/lpNNPS4SPH.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Mechanisms and stability of Li dynamics in amorphous Li-Ti-P-S-based mixed ionic–electronic conductors: A machine learning molecular dynamics study

Mixed ionic–electronic conductors (MIECs) exhibit both high ionic and electronic conductivity to improve the battery performance. In this work, we investigate the mechanism and stability of transport channels in our recently developed MIEC material, amorphous Ti-doped lithium phosphorus sulfide (LPS), using molecular dynamics (MD) simulations with a 99% accurate machine-learning force field (MLFF) trained on ab initio MD data. The achieved MLFF helps efficient large-scale MD simulations on LPS with three Ti concentrations (10%, 20%, and 30%) and six temperatures (25°C to 225°C) to calculate ionic conductivity, activation energy, Li-ion transport mechanism, and configurational entropy. Results show that ionic conductivities and activation energies are consistent with our recent experimental values. Moreover, Li-ion transport occurs via free-volume diffusion facilitated by the formation of disordered Li-S polyhedra. The enhanced stability of transport channels at 10% and 20% Ti doping, compared to 0% and 30%, is observed by analyzing the vibrational and configurational entropy of these disordered Li-S polyhedra. Overall, this study highlights the utility of MLFF-based large-scale MD simulations in explaining the transport mechanism and the stability of Li-ion in Ti-doped LPS electrolyte with significant computational efficiency.

And configuration entropy↗

Combustion, criteria pollutant and soot property assessment of mixing-controlled high-load engine operation with gasoline and diesel

Gasoline compression ignition (GCI) is an emerging technology that can achieve high fuel efficiency and low criteria emissions in diesel engine platforms using gasoline and gasoline-like fuels. While low- and mid-range loads are enabled with low temperature combustion (LTC) approaches, high-loads are more efficient with high temperature combustion (HTC) requiring mixing-controlled combustion (MCC). Lower soot emissions are achieved with gasoline even in high-load MCC than with diesel, but detailed soot properties from gasoline and diesel have been rarely discussed. In order to better understand how high-load operations affect soot properties, in this study gasoline and diesel were tested in a six-cylinder heavy duty engine at 14 bar brake mean effective pressure (BMEP) at similar combustion phasing. Effects of pilot mass ratio and EGR on heat release rates, cylinder temperatures, ignition delay (ID) and combustion duration (CD) were examined, relating with emissions variations with applications of the two fuels. Soot mass and particle number emissions were slightly lower with gasoline than with diesel, resulting in a more favorable NOx-soot trade-off with gasoline like other reports. Contrary to other findings in the literature, gasoline and diesel soot samples presented similar particle distribution shapes, carbon crystalline structures and primary particle sizes, regardless of fuel type and EGR rate. Consequently, the current result proposes that soot particles have undergone similar soot formation and oxidation processes despite reactivity difference and oxygen availability under the examined high-load MCC with similar combustion phases.

02 PETROLEUM↗

3D modelling of MHD mixed convection flow in a vertical duct with transverse magnetic field and volumetric or surface heating

Understanding phenomena associated with the multiple effects/interactions of the fusion nuclear environment on liquid metal flow is required to correctly design liquid metal (LM) blankets for fusion facilities. These effects are investigated in the present work by numerically simulating 3D LM MHD flow. The simulated geometry consists of a straight, vertical duct which runs perpendicular to a strong, fringing applied magnetic field. There is also a region of applied heating as the primary goal is to explore buoyancy effects in MHD duct flows. Results are presented for both buoyancy assisted (upwards) and buoyancy opposed (downwards) flows in conducting and insulating ducts for a range of Hartmann numbers (Ha) up to 100, Reynolds numbers (Re) from 10 3 to 10 4 and Grashof (Gr) numbers from 10 7 to 10 8 . While increasing Gr or decreasing Re increases buoyancy effects, increasing Ha was shown to increase maximum temperature through turbulence reduction. The extent to which the MHD mixed convection flows are quasi-2D is analyzed and buoyant effects, in competition with electromagnetic forces, are shown to bring about 3D flow features not seen in purely MHD flows. Volumetric nuclear heating with steep gradients is applied to the vertical MHD flows for comparison to flows with surface heating only. Finally, surface heating generates stronger buoyancy effects than volumetric heating of the same total power; however, many of the same phenomena occur. Therefore, surface heating, the only option for lab experiments, can provide indication of the effects of volumetric heating in MHD flows.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Quantitative assessment of eddy viscosity rans models for turbulent mixed convection in a differentially heated plane channel

Turbulent mixed convection between two vertical, infinite parallel plates at different temperatures is studied using various two-equation turbulence models. The numerical simulations are performed at a turbulent Reynolds number of Re τ = 150 and a Grashof number of Gr = 9.6 × 10 5 . Comparisons are made against the highly trusted DNS results. Consistent with the DNS approach, the current simulations are performed using constant properties and the Boussinesq approximation to predict the influence of buoyancy. Previous studies have provided assessments of two-equation turbulence models for various scenarios, but often rely on a qualitative “eye” test in order to determine the most appropriate model to predict a given flow. This study aims to provide a new form of quantitative assessment that accounts for both the physics captured by the turbulence model as well as the magnitude of the system response quantities (SRQ) using a modified symmetric mean absolute percent error (SMAPE) method. This method is designed to be approachable to researchers at any level and can be applied to system response quantities from multiple research fields. Uncertainty quantification is also performed to determine the discretization error for each turbulence model. Recommendations are made as to which turbulence models best capture the physics – hydrodynamically and thermally – using both local and global validation metrics. Lastly, a sensitivity analysis is performed on the damping functions used in the most accurate models. This underpins the potential of model developments and adjustments most worth pursuing for buoyant flows. Finally, this framework provides a more physics-based comparative analysis of the selected turbulence models.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Detailed mixing measurements from single-hole converging ECN injectors using Rayleigh scattering

Time resolved liquid and vapor fields of dodecane and oxymethylene ethers are measured from Spray A-3 and Spray D using high speed Rayleigh scattering and diffuse back illumination at the Engine Combustion Network (ECN) Spray A condition of 900 K and 22.8 kg/m 3 . Global quantities including mixture fraction, vapor and liquid penetration, as well as spreading angle are measured. The mixture fraction fields and vapor penetration profiles are well predicted by the 1-D Musculus-Kattke model. The mixture fraction field and vapor penetration from Spray A-3 are similar to those measured from Spray A in previous works. Spray D exhibits higher mixture fraction fields and vapor penetration due to its larger nozzle diameter. The quasi-steady mixture fraction fields from these injectors scale well when distance from the injector is normalized by the nozzle diameter. The turbulent dissipation structures were also analyzed based on the orientation, thickness, and magnitude of the mixing layers. Furthermore, the orientation and thickness are similar to other measurements in atmospheric gas jets, while the magnitude is lower. The thickness and magnitude are subject to uncertainties due to limitations in the imaging resolution of the system but still provide an order of magnitude as a useful reference for comparison against computational fluid dynamic simulations.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Anomalously strong viscosity behavior in mixed oxy-sulfide Na 4 P 2 S 7-x O x invert glasses

In this paper, the first observations have been made of anomalously strong viscosity behavior and correspondingly strong bulk glass formation and resistance to crystallization in a melt quenched (MQ) prepared series of invert, modifier content greater than the glass former content, mixed oxy-sulfide Na 4 P 2 S 7-x O x , 0 ≤ x ≤ 5, (NaPSO) glasses. We find that these glasses even with 67 mole % modifier, Na 2 S, and only 33 mole% glass former P 2 S 5-x O x , exhibit a calorimetric fragility index, m cal , as small as 29 compared to typical values of ~ 60 to 80 for alkali silicate glasses with > 50 mole% SiO 2 and the theoretical minimum m cal of ~ 15. The m cal values were converted to kinetic viscosity fragility, m vis , values and used with the measured glass transition temperatures, T g s, to produce viscosity curves for the glasses using the Mauro-Yue-Ellison-Gupta-Allan (MYEGA) model. The viscosity of the glass with a minimum m cal value of x = 2.5 was then shown to exhibit a viscosity that was as strong as, and for some compositions stronger than, the viscosity of alkali aluminosilicate glasses which have three dimensional network structures compared to the one dimensional chain structures observed in these MOS invert glasses. Consistent with these small values of fragility indices and therefore predicted higher viscosity above the glass transition temperature, T g , in the supercooled liquid regime, these glasses are also particularly resistant to crystallization. For example, the x = 2.5 glass composition exhibits a crystallization temperature, T C , more than 150K above its T g . We find that the calorimetric fragility of these glasses varies systematically with the extent of network forming bridging oxygens (BOs) in the glasses. The structural change caused by incrementally replacing sulfur with oxygen has been found to have consistent, large effects on the thermal properties.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Post-irradiation characterization of a high burnup mixed oxide fuel rod with minor actinides

The Advanced Fuels Campaign performed a series of irradiation tests of minor actinide-bearing mixed oxide fuel (MA-MOX), the so-called AFC-2C&D experiments, to investigate the transmutation of long-lived transuranic actinide isotopes contained in spent nuclear fuel via fast reactor technology at burnups exceeding 10 % fission of initial metallic atoms. This manuscript reports the test results derived from one of the five MA-MOX rodlets taken to higher burnup in the AFC-2D irradiation. This includes both non-destructive investigations, such as gamma and neutron spectrometry, and destructive investigations, such as fission gas release, ceramography, and chemical burnup analysis. In addition, the microstructure of the fuel was investigated using advanced electron microscopy techniques including electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD) and transmission electron microscopy (TEM). Here, it was observed with EBSD that the pellet had subdivision of the grains and the TEM observed migration of cladding material into the 5 metal precipitates in the fuel which could have been from the higher than desired oxygen/metal ratio. The TEM also showed an enrichment of Cr in fuel clad chemical interaction (FCCI) layer.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Analysis of radially resolved thermal conductivity in high burnup mixed oxide fuel and comparison to thermal conductivity correlations implemented in fuel performance codes

The thermal diffusivity and thermal conductivity of high burnup (19 % FIMA) mixed oxide (U, Pu)O 2 nuclear fuel has been measured along the radial direction using a thermoreflectance-based method. Measured thermal conductivity exhibits a notable radial variation consistent with the expectations that a large temperature gradient across the annular fuel pellet leads to a heterogeneous microstructure. A common fuel performance model of thermal conductivity, the Lucuta-Inoue model, is used to analyze the measured thermal conductivity profile. Further, this model adequately captures the radial dependence of thermal conductivity except in the periphery. The analysis suggests that the characteristic radial shape of the thermal conductivity profile follows the burnup profile within the fuel pin. In the periphery, the high burnup structure is formed and the conductivity model, not capturing this effect, likely overestimates the thermal conductivity.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Exploring thermal state in mixed immersive virtual environments

Combining immersive virtual environment (IVE) with a controlled environment is a potential solution for analyzing human thermal experience during building design. Existing studies in this field have not adequately analyzed scenarios involving stabilized comfortable and uncomfortable temperature conditions using both thermal state votes and physiological responses, or the influence of the seasons. By combining IVE with a climate chamber, called mixed IVE (MIVE) in this study, experiments were conducted to test the hypothesis that participants' virtual experience did not significantly alter their thermal experience compared to their in-situ experience. Response variables were the control temperature distribution, the thermal state vote (at temperature steps 18.3 °C, 23.8 °C, and 29.4 °C), and physiological responses (heart rate and skin temperature). The results show that the first two response variables were not significantly different between the MIVE and in-situ settings (except for one case). Due to the heat development of the head mounted display device, the mean forehead skin temperature in the MIVE experiments was significantly higher than that in the in-situ experiments in most cases. Furthermore, such difference in skin temperature did not seem to affect general thermal state votes. In addition, significant skin temperature differences at some locations were also observed between the MIVE and in-situ settings.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Mixed matrix membranes for post-combustion carbon capture: From materials design to membrane engineering

Mixed matrix materials (MMMs) containing nanofillers dispersed in continuous polymer matrices have emerged as an exciting and versatile platform to develop membranes with superior CO 2 /N 2 separation performance for post-combustion carbon capture. Both polymers and nanofillers can be vertically designed and engineered to combine the advantages of excellent processability (derived from polymers) and strong size-sieving ability or/and significant permanent porosity (originated from nanofillers). However, the MMMs face major challenges, such as interfacial incompatibility, particle agglomeration, and poor thin-film formability. This report provides a comprehensive yet critical review of various polymers and nanofillers (such as metal-organic frameworks, covalent organic frameworks, and two-dimensional materials) with promising CO 2 /N 2 separation properties. We exhaustively describe strategies to improve interfacial compatibility, such as in situ syntheses of polymers and nanofillers and functionalization of both components to improve adhesion. Moreover, we highlight various approaches to engineer the MMMs into thin-film composite (TFC) membranes. The review reveals the structure/property relationship in these MMMs and outlines the challenges and opportunities to realize their potential for practical applications.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Measurement of the Drell–Yan forward-backward asymmetry and of the effective leptonic weak mixing angle in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ 13 TeV

The forward-backward asymmetry in Drell-Yan production and the effective leptonic electroweak mixing angle are measured in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV, collected by the CMS experiment and corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb$^{-1}$. The measurement uses both dimuon and dielectron events, and is performed as a function of the dilepton mass and rapidity. The unfolded angular coefficient $A_4$ is also extracted, as a function of the dilepton mass and rapidity. Using the CT18Z set of parton distribution functions, we obtain $\sin^{2}\theta^\ell_\text{eff}$ = 0.23152 $\pm$ 0.00031, where the uncertainty includes the experimental and theoretical contributions. The measured value agrees with the standard model fit result to global experimental data. This is the most precise $\sin^{2}\theta^\ell_\text{eff}$ measurement at a hadron collider, with a precision comparable to the results obtained at LEP and SLD.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

The effect on soot and its gas precursors of doping ethylene with 2,2,4,6,6-pentamethyl-heptane in the nitrogen-fuel stream of a laminar non-premixed Planar Mixing Layer Flame (PMLF)

Synthetic Aviation Turbine Fuels (SATFs) are promising for reducing soot emissions from the aviation sector and diversifying Jet Fuel (JF) sources. Accurately predicting the combustion and emissions behavior of SATFs (and other JFs) necessitates robust experimental databases to elucidate the chemistry of long-chain iso-paraffins, which can compose up to two-thirds of SATF blends and whose behavior is considered to be well-represented by that of iso-dodecane isomers. Here, this study characterizes two laminar non-premixed Planar Mixing Layer Flames (PMLFs) with mild soot loads fueled by nitrogen-diluted ethylene, pure and doped with 2,2,4,6,6-pentamethyl-heptane, respectively. The two PMLFs have the same stoichiometric mixture fraction and total hydrocarbon mole fraction in the fuel stream (X F,F =X C2H4,F +X C12H26,F = 0.260), resulting in nearly the same maximum temperature (T max ≈1800 K) and simple identification of the effects of doping. Importantly, any horizontal PMLF cross-section has a self-similar structure that can be modeled as an equivalent One-Dimensional Counterflow Flame (1D-CF) with vanishingly small strain rate (a). The cross-section at a Height Above the Burner (HAB) of 50 mm is characterized in terms of C 0 -C 18 gas species using capillary sampling followed by GC-MS analyses. Laser-Induced Emission Spectroscopy (LIES) quantifies the soot volume fraction (ƒ v ) profiles at HAB=25 and 50 mm where Elastic Laser Light Scattering (E-LLS) is performed to determine the a of the equivalent 1D-CFs and the profile of the E-LLS equivalent diameter ( d 6,3 ) of soot. The substitution of 1500 ppm of ethylene with 2,2,4,6,6-pentamethyl-heptane causes an increase of ≈1.5 in the concentrations of several polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and fv. Concurrently, the measured d 6,3 doubles in the oxidizer stream, yet remains the same in the fuel stream, at HAB=50 mm. Instead, at HAB= 25 mm, the iso-dodecane doping does not affect the d 6,3 profile in either stream. The experimental results partially validate the chemical reactions and soot formation kinetic model developed at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and provide directions to further improve its predictions.

Iso-dodecane (2,2,4,6,6-Pentamethyl-Heptane)↗

Which “second-best” climate policies are best? Simulating cost-effective policy mixes for passenger vehicles

In the real-world of political opposition and complex market failures, carbon pricing alone will not achieve deep GHG mitigation targets. Hence, in this study, we search for the most cost-effective “second-best” policies. Focusing on the light-duty vehicle sector in the case of Canada, we compare several policies in terms of effectiveness (regarding 2030 GHG goals) and mitigation costs, namely: (i) a carbon tax; (ii) a vehicle emission standard (or VES); (iii) a zero emissions vehicle (ZEV) mandate, and (iv) combinations of all three at various stringencies. In this effort, we apply the AUtomaker-consumer Model (AUM), which endogenously simulates consumer and automaker decisions and technological change. Comparing individual policies, the regulations are about three times more expensive than the carbon tax. Among “second-best” policies, the VES is cheaper than a ZEV mandate at lower stringencies, but at higher stringencies the two are similarly efficient (both incentivize widespread ZEV deployment). In policy mixes, cost-effectiveness is improved by a carbon tax. Specifically, inclusion of a CDN$100–150/tonne tax can achieve targets while being 30–40% less costly than a regulation alone. We suggest that policymakers implement carbon pricing as stringently as politically feasible (for efficiency), complemented by regulations as needed (for efficacy) to meet GHG targets.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗