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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2015

Search for invisible decays of the Higgs boson produced in association with a hadronically decaying vector boson in pp collisions at √s = 8 with the ATLAS detector

A search for Higgs boson decays to invisible particles is performed using 20.3 fb⁻¹ of pp collision data at a centre-of-mass energy of 8 TeV recorded by the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider. The process considered is Higgs boson production in association with a vector boson (V = W or Z) that decays hadronically, resulting in events with two or more jets and large missing transverse momentum. No excess of candidates is observed in the data over the background expectation. The results are used to constrain V H production followed by H decaying to invisible particles for the Higgs boson mass range 115 < m H < 300 GeV. The 95 % confidence-level observed upper limit on σ VH × BR(H → inv.) varies from 1.6 pb at 115 GeV to 0.13 pb at 300 GeV. Assuming Standard Model production and including the gg → H contribution as signal, the results also lead to an observed upper limit of 78% at 95% confidence level on the branching ratio of Higgs bosons decays to invisible particles at a mass of 125 GeV.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
NASA NTRS2014

Materials International Space Station Experiment (MISSE): Overview, Accomplishments and Future Needs

Materials and devices used on the exterior of spacecraft in low Earth orbit (LEO) are subjected to environmental threats that can cause degradation in material properties, possibly threatening spacecraft mission success. These threats include: atomic oxygen (AO), ultraviolet and x-ray radiation, charged particle radiation, temperature extremes and thermal cycling, micrometeoroid and debris impacts, and contamination. Space environmental threats vary greatly based on spacecraft materials, thicknesses and stress levels, and the mission environment and duration. For more than a decade the Materials International Space Station Experiment (MISSE) has enabled the study of the long duration environmental durability of spacecraft materials in the LEO environment. The overall objective of MISSE is to test the stability and durability of materials and devices in the space environment in order to gain valuable knowledge on the performance of materials in space, as well as to enable lifetime predictions of new materials that may be used in future space flight. MISSE is a series of materials flight experiments, which are attached to the exterior of the International Space Station (ISS). Individual experiments were loaded onto suitcase-like trays, called Passive Experiment Containers (PECs). The PECs were transported to the ISS in the Space Shuttle cargo bay and attached to, and removed from, the ISS during extravehicular activities (EVAs). The PECs were retrieved after one or more years of space exposure and returned to Earth enabling post-flight experiment evaluation. MISSE is a multi-organization project with participants from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the Department of Defense (DoD), industry and academia. MISSE has provided a platform for environmental durability studies for thousands of samples and numerous devices, and it has produced many tangible impacts. Ten PECs (and one smaller tray) have been flown, representing MISSE 1 through MISSE 8, yielding long-duration space environmental performance and durability data that enable material validation, processing recertification and space qualification; improved predictions of materials and component lifetimes in space; model verification and development; and correlation factors between space-exposure and ground-facilities enabling more accurate in-space performance predictions based on ground-laboratory testing. A few of the many experiment results and observations, and their impacts, are provided. Those highlighted include examples on improved understanding of atomic oxygen scattering mechanisms, LEO coating durability results, and polymer erosion yields and their impacts on spacecraft design. The MISSE 2 Atomic Oxygen Scattering Chamber Experiment discovered that the peak flux of scattered AO was determined to be 45 deg from normal incidence, not the model predicted cosine dependence. In addition, the erosion yield (E(sub y)) of Kapton H for AO scattered off oxidized-Al is 22% of the E(sub y) of direct AO impingement. These results were used to help determine the degradation mechanism of a cesium iodide detector within the Hubble Space Telescope Cosmic Origins Spectrograph Experiment. The MISSE 6 Indium Tin Oxide (ITO) Degradation Experiment measured surface electrical resistance of ram and wake ITO coated samples. The data confirmed that ITO is a stable AO protective coating, and the results validated the durability of ITO conductive coatings for solar arrays for the Atmosphere-Space Transition 2 Explorer program. The MISSE 2, 6 and 7 Polymer Experiments have provided LEO AO Ey data on over 120 polymer and composites samples. The flight E(sub y) values were found to range from 3.05 x 10(exp -26) cu cm/atom for the AO resistant polymer CORIN to 9.14 x 10(exp -26) cu cm/atom for polyoxymethylene (POM). In addition, flying the same polymers on different missions has advanced the understanding of the AO E(sub y) dependency on solar exposure for polymers containing fluorine. The MISSE polymer results are highly requested and have impacted spacecraft design for WorldView-2 & -3, the Global Precipitation Measurement-Microwave Imager, and other spacecraft. The flight data has enabled the development of an Atomic Oxygen Erosion Predictive Tool that allows the erosion prediction of new and non-flown polymers. The data has also been used to develop a new NASA Technical Standards Handbook "Spacecraft Polymers Atomic Oxygen Durability Handbook." Many intangible benefits have also been derived from MISSE. For example, over 40 students have collaborated on Glenn's MISSE experiments, which have resulted in greater than $80K in student scholarships and awards in national and international science fairs. Students have also given presentations and won poster competition awards at international space conferences.

Flight Experiment↗
DOE OSTI2016

Search for new phenomena in final states with an energetic jet and large missing transverse momentum in p p collisions at s = 13 TeV using the ATLAS detector

We report results of a search for new phenomena in final states with an energetic jet and large missing transverse momentum. The search uses proton-proton collision data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 3.2 fb $-$1 at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV collected in 2015 with the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider. Events are required to have at least one jet with a transverse momentum above 250 GeV and no leptons. Several signal regions are considered with increasing missing-transverse-momentum requirements between E$miss\atop{T}$ > 250 GeV and E$miss\atop{T}$ > 700 GeV . Good agreement is observed between the number of events in data and Standard Model predictions. The results are translated into exclusion limits in models with large extra spatial dimensions, pair production of weakly interacting dark-matter candidates, and the production of supersymmetric particles in several compressed scenarios.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
NASA NTRS2003

Dawn Mission: A Journey in Space and Time

By successively orbiting both 4 Vesta and 1 Ceres the Dawn mission directly addresses the longstanding goals of NASA and the planetary community to understand the origin and evolution of the solar system by obtaining geophysical and geochemical data on diverse main belt asteroids. Ceres and Vesta are two complementary terrestrial protoplanets (one apparently "wet" and one "dry"), whose accretion was terminated by the formation of Jupiter. Ceres is little changed since it formed in the early solar system, while Vesta has experienced significant heating and differentiation. Both have remained intact over the age of the solar system, thereby retaining a record of events and processes from the time of planet formation. Detailed study of the geophysics and geochemistry of these two bodies provides critical benchmarks for the early solar system conditions and processes that shaped its subsequent evolution. Dawn provides the missing context for both primitive and evolved meteoritic data, thus playing a central role in understanding terrestrial planet formation and the evolution of the asteroid belt. Dawn is to be launched in May 2006 arriving at Vesta in 2010 and Ceres in 2014, stopping at each to make 11 months of orbital measurements. The spacecraft uses solar electric propulsion both in cruise and in orbit to make most efficient use of its xenon propellant. The spacecraft carries a framing camera, visible and infrared mapping spectrometer, gamma ray/neutron spectrometer, a laser altimeter, magnetometer, and radio science.

Russell, C. T.↗
NASA NTRS2006

MISSE Materials Results for Applications in the Vision for Space Exploration

Marshall Space Flight Center has a role in the development of the Crew Launch Vehicle and Crew Exploration Vehicle, as well as the Robotic Lunar Exploration Program (RLEP-2) and In-Space Propulsion. The success of these programs depends upon understanding the space environment, the requirements imposed on the spacecraft materials, and data gleaned from materials returned from space. Station Experiment (MISSE) were analyzed at the Marshall Space Flight Center. Changes in mass, optical properties, and mechanical integrity for these samples can indicate which materials may be suitable for use on exploration spacecraft, which materials need further testing, and which materials should not be recommended for long term missions. A number of materials for in-space propulsion were flown on MISSE. These include the conductive, insulative, and non-conductive tether materials selected for the ProSEDS mission. Also included were candidate solar sail materials. The solar sail materials were flown underneath a magnesium fluoride window that allowed ultraviolet radiation through to the sample but blocked any atomic oxygen. Over two hundred materials samples from the Materials on International Space

Source record↗
DOE OSTI2026

AI-Based Analytics and Energy Modeling Framework for Characterizing Urban Energy Systems

Developing location-specific district energy models is essential for understanding energy patterns and supporting efficient management and planning decisions. However, accurately characterizing these models remains challenging due to gaps in building characteristics and labor-intensive traditional modeling workflows. To address these challenges, we develop an AI-based framework that integrates top-down and bottom-up building energy data to automate urban energy model characterization. The framework trains multimodal deep learning models using heterogeneous ResStockTM datasets to infer missing building characteristics from varying levels of known information and generate simulation-ready inputs for district-scale energy modeling. It also employs a conditioning-based injection approach to generate ”what-if” scenarios, enabling users to explore retrofit, efficiency, and technology-upgrade pathways. Integrated within URBANoptTM, a bottom-up district energy modeling platform for simulating co-located buildings, the framework infers detailed building-level inputs required for bottom-up simulations. Both localized and generalized AI models are developed to learn relationships across categorical, numerical, and time-series data, enabling reconstruction of missing attributes and generation of targeted upgrade scenarios. We demonstrate this methodology on a residential neighborhood in Baltimore, MD, assessing internal consistency against ResStock reference data and URBANopt simulation, and comparing selected attributes against real-world building characteristics. Results show strong overall predictive accuracy in data completion and scenario generation, with localized and generalized models offering complementary trade-offs between precision and scalability. Overall, our automated framework streamlines energy modeling and provides a reliable framework for urban building energy characterization.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
NASA NTRS2009

Overview of Materials International Space Station Experiment 7B

Materials International Space Station Experiment 7B (MISSE 7B) is the most recent in a series of experiments flown on the exterior of International Space Station for the purpose of determining the durability of materials and components in the space environment. A collaborative effort among the Department of Defense, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, industry, and academia, MISSE 7B will be flying a number of NASA experiments designed to gain knowledge in the area of space environmental effects to mitigate risk for exploration missions. Consisting of trays called Passive Experiment Containers, the suitcase sized payload opens on hinges and allows active and passive experiments contained within to be exposed to the ram and wake or zenith and nadir directions in low Earth orbit, in essence, providing a test bed for atomic oxygen exposure, ultraviolet radiation exposure, charged particle radiation exposure, and thermal cycling. New for MISSE 7B is the ability to monitor experiments actively, with data sent back to Earth via International Space Station communications. NASA?s active and passive experiments cover a range of interest for the Agency. Materials relevant to the Constellation Program include: solar array materials, seal materials, and thermal protection system materials. Materials relevant to the Exploration Technology Development Program include: fabrics for spacesuits, materials for lunar dust mitigation, and new thermal control coatings. Sensors and components on MISSE 7B include: atomic oxygen fluence monitors, ultraviolet radiation sensors, and electro-optical components. In addition, fundamental space environmental durability science experiments are being flown to gather atomic oxygen erosion data and thin film polymer mechanical and optical property data relevant to lunar lander insulation and the James Web Space Telescope. This paper will present an overview of the NASA experiments to be flown on MISSE 7B, along with a summary of the thermal environment to be expected during the 1 yr mission scheduled for launch in 2009.

Jaworske, Donald A.↗
DOE OSTI2014

The allwise motion survey and the quest for cold subdwarfs

The AllWISE processing pipeline has measured motions for all objects detected on Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) images taken between 2010 January and 2011 February. In this paper, we discuss new capabilities made to the software pipeline in order to make motion measurements possible, and we characterize the resulting data products for use by future researchers. Using a stringent set of selection criteria, we find 22,445 objects that have significant AllWISE motions, of which 3525 have motions that can be independently confirmed from earlier Two Micron All Sky Survey (2MASS) images, yet lack any published motions in SIMBAD. Another 58 sources lack 2MASS counterparts and are presented as motion candidates only. Limited spectroscopic follow-up of this list has already revealed eight new L subdwarfs. These may provide the first hints of a 'subdwarf gap' at mid-L types that would indicate the break between the stellar and substellar populations at low metallicities (i.e., old ages). Another object in the motion list—WISEA J154045.67–510139.3—is a bright (J ≈ 9 mag) object of type M6; both the spectrophotometric distance and a crude preliminary parallax place it ∼6 pc from the Sun. We also compare our list of motion objects to the recently published list of 762 WISE motion objects from Luhman. While these first large motion studies with WISE data have been very successful in revealing previously overlooked nearby dwarfs, both studies missed objects that the other found, demonstrating that many other nearby objects likely await discovery in the AllWISE data products.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Learning Memento archive routing with Character-based Artificial Neural Networks

This white paper describes a series of tests that were performed to determine if a neural network could learn patterns from a service that maintains a cache of routing decisions for the discovery of version information for discrete web-at-large URLs. Labeled training data was derived from a log file that records the by-archive availability of Memento availability for a given URL. Training data sets were generated from this log file on a by-archive basis (thus making it a binary classification problem). Each training data set consisted of equal numbers of hit and miss URLs, selected at random. The URLs were converted to a normalized numeric representation where each integer in a URL training vector represents a character in that URL. The corresponding label indicates whether or not Mementos were available for that URL in the selected archive. The training data matrix and the label vector became input to a neural network. A number of neural network architectures and network hyperparameters were explored, however the log entries themselves were used as-is, without any feature engineering, beyond the aforementioned normalization.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1995

Measurement characteristics and Kinematics of Sea Ice Using Microwave Satellite Data

Changes in sea ice conditions have major effects on the ocean and on weather, but visual observations miss periods of cloudiness and darkness. Microwave radar satellites are the only uninterrupted source of high resolution (30 m) data. Recent developments will allow high-resolution global sea-ice tracking at intervals of a few days.

remote sensing sea ice synthetic aperture radar SA↗
DOE OSTI2016

Scalable Analysis Methods and In Situ Infrastructure for Extreme Scale Knowledge Discovery

The primary challenge motivating this team’s work is the widening gap between the ability to compute information and to store it for subsequent analysis. This gap adversely impacts science code teams, who are able to perform analysis only on a small fraction of the data they compute, resulting in the very real likelihood of lost or missed science, when results are computed but not analyzed. Our approach is to perform as much analysis or visualization processing on data while it is still resident in memory, an approach that is known as in situ processing. The idea in situ processing was not new at the time of the start of this effort in 2014, but efforts in that space were largely ad hoc, and there was no concerted effort within the research community that aimed to foster production-quality software tools suitable for use by DOE science projects. In large, our objective was produce and enable use of production-quality in situ methods and infrastructure, at scale, on DOE HPC facilities, though we expected to have impact beyond DOE due to the widespread nature of the challenges, which affect virtually all large-scale computational science efforts. To achieve that objective, we assembled a unique team of researchers consisting of representatives from DOE national laboratories, academia, and industry, and engaged in software technology R&D, as well as engaged in close partnerships with DOE science code teams, to produce software technologies that were shown to run effectively at scale on DOE HPC platforms.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Mechanistic Fission Gas Release Uncertainty Induced by Microstructure Data

Fission Gas Release (FGR) is an important engineering safety parameter for nuclear fuel. While fuel performance modeling with BISON currently relies on mechanistic models to predict it, comparison with experimental data shows both under or over prediction depending on operation mode (steady or transient).Predicting microstructure data is essential to accurately predicts the engineering scale parameters. An important source of uncertainty in mechanistic models arises from the missing captured physics. Continuous validation and refinement of these models against experimental data are also necessary to ensure their reliability and accuracy in predicting engineering parameters.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Les Houches study on inclusive jet production at NNLO+NNLL

Jet production at the LHC is a powerful probe of QCD, making it ideal for precision tests and determinations of QCD parameters such as parton distribution functions and the strong coupling constant. To make the most of the abundant jet production data collected at the LHC, precise calculations are required. While state-of-the-art calculations reach next-to-next-to-leading order (NNLO) QCD accuracy, a critical assessment of the remaining uncertainties arising from non-perturbative effects and missing higher orders remains crucial for correctly interpreting comparisons between theory and data. Scale variation is nearly always used to determine effects from missing higher orders. In this article, we reassess this method in the context of inclusive jet production by performing NNLO QCD calculations supplemented by small-jet-radius resummation through next-to-next-to-leading-logarithmic accuracy (NNLL). We find that NNLL resummation can have an appreciable impact on the scale uncertainty for inclusive jet cross sections, and, for some scale choices, can lead to sizeable shifts of the central cross section. We conclude that scale variations in fixed-order and resummed calculations can drastically underestimate the impact of higher orders for commonly used jet radius parameters, and that missing higher-order estimates obtained via scale variations should be considered unreliable. Our findings add further evidence to the importance of going beyond scale variations in jet and jet substructure calculations.

Lee, Kyle↗
DOE OSTI2023

Development of Analysis Methods that Integrate Numeric and Textual Equipment Reliability Data

Within the Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program, the Risk-Informed Systems Analysis (RISA) Pathway is performing collaborative research on the development and deployment of technologies designed to assist operating nuclear power plants (NPPs) to reduce operating costs improve plant reliability and availability. One of the RISA research areas is focusing on the development of methods and tools designed to optimize plant operations (e.g., maintenance/replacement schedules, optimal maintenance postures for plant structures, systems, and components [SSCs]) in a manner that is more cost effective than current approaches and makes better use of available SSC health data. The Risk-Informed Asset Management (RIAM) project targets this research area by creating a direct bridge between component equipment reliability (ER) data and system engineer decision making regarding maintenance activity scheduling and component aging management. In this respect, one challenge that NPP system engineers are facing is that the amount of ER data being continuously generated is not only extremely large in size, but it comes in different forms: textual (e.g., condition or maintenance reports) and numeric (e.g., generated by monitoring systems). All these data elements provide them with valuable insights and information regarding: 1) the discovery of anomalous behaviors or degradation trends, 2) the identification of the possible causes behind such behaviors/trends, and 3) the prediction of their direct consequences. However, several challenges have proved to be roadblocks to this process. While some of these challenges are technical in nature (i.e., data are often distributed over several physical servers/databases), others are conceptual in nature: data elements come in different formats (e.g., numeric or textual), and measured values have different scales (e.g., vibration spectra and oil temperature). The activities performed by the RIAM project during FY23 directly tackles the need to simultaneously integrate the analysis of ER data in all its forms, numeric and textual. Note that such task has never been performed before due to the complexity of the systems under consideration but, most importantly, because of the technical challenges behind the harmonization of ER data formats and the lack of adequate computational methods to analyze them. Our approach borrows ideas and concepts from the medical field where integration of several data sources is vital to assist medical practitioners to perform correct diagnosis and indicate optimal treatments. In our view a NPP asset is equivalent to a patient in a medical context. The main difference is the complexity of a human body is a magnitude more complex when compared to typical assets commonly present in NPPs (e.g., centrifugal pumps, or motor operated valves). This simplifies our first requirement when analyzing heterogenous ER data formats: to put data into “context”. Context is here intended as the additional piece of information that is needed by ER data analysis tools to understand what these data elements are referring to, i.e., which king of knowledge they are generating. In our context, this knowledge can be translated into models that capture the form and functional architecture of assets/systems, their dependencies, and how they interact. These models actually emulate the knowledge that that NPP system engineers possess about assets and systems; this is their key of success when analyzing ER data, their challenge is ability to handle large amount of data. Here, we employ model-based system engineering (MBSE) models of systems and assets to represent and capture their architecture and functional, i.e. cause-effect, relations. Then, ER data elements are processed by identifying first of all which elements of the developed MBSE elements they are referring to. For numeric ER data this task is fairly easy since it is possible to precisely pinpoint what MBSE elements the corresponding sensor are observing (e.g., bearing temperature of a centrifugal pump). Task is much harder for textual data since the information contained in issue or maintenance reports needs to “be understood” by a computational tool. Here we called this process as “knowledge extraction”. Once again, we borrow the experience in the medical field where methods to extract knowledge from textual data have been developed in the past decade. The missing element for us is the availability of a complete dictionary of NPP related concepts (in addition to the MBSE models presented earlier) that can put “text into context”. In FY23, such dictionary has been developed along with all the computational elements required for knowledge extraction. Lastly, once numeric and textual ER data elements have been processed and “understood”, then the last step is the discovery of possible cause-effect relations among them. This is performed by observing if a logical connection through the MBSE models exists, and if the

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Towards AI Based Data Classification for Decision Making During Testing

During the development of high-consequence items, test systems should be capable of differentiating between test failures resulting from narrowly missing requirements versus those indicating potentially catastrophic faults. In many instances, classifying the data corresponds to simply identifying whether measured waveforms have approximately the anticipated shape. Cast in this light, the problem reduces to converting raw data into a form optimal for use with neural network classifiers. This manuscript investigates different means of representing raw data for image classification. Raw data plots and Short Time Fourier Transform (STFT) spectrograms are classified by both custom built, small-scale, Convolution Neural Networks (CNN) and open-source, multi-million parameter, pre-trained deep CNNs. In the case of time varying frequency content, the STFTs provide images with greater detail and can be accurately classified with simpler networks. This requires less memory and runs faster than classifying the raw data using the more sophisticated options—making STFTs optimal for applications with memory constraints. STFTs are not a panacea. In some cases the time-domain signal contains useful information that should not be discarded. Rather than using raw data or STFTs, the images can be constructed from both by using red and green channels of an RGB image to visualize the real and imaginary components of the transform, with the raw data occupying the blue channel.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

DECOVALEX-2023: Task C Final Report

The Full-scale Emplacement (FE) heater experiment at the Mont Terri Underground Rock Laboratory (URL) was designed and conducted by Nagra to replicate an emplacement tunnel of Nagra’s reference repository design at 1:1 scale. Alongside testing the technical feasibility of constructing disposal tunnels, emplacing waste containers in the tunnels and then backfilling them, the main goals of the FE experiment are (1) to obtain a better understanding of the coupled effects of induced thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) processes that may occur and (2) to validate existing coupled THM models (Müller et al., 2017). A key aspect of ensuring safety for repositories located in low-permeability rock involves minimizing any damage to the rock itself, thereby preserving its integrity and promoting a stable environment Amongst a number of processes that could damage the rock is the increase in pore pressure due to thermal loading caused by heat emitted from the waste. To reduce the potential damage of the rock, it is important to analyse the evolution of heat over time due to the heat load of the containers and assess possible consequences by coupled THM models. The aim of Task C of DECOVALEX-2023 was to build 3D numerical models of the FE experiment, focussing in particular on the heating induced pore pressure change in the Opalinus Clay. Data from a large number of sensors were available from the FE experiment for model comparison. These sensors measured temperature and relative humidity in the bentonite around the heaters, and temperature, pressure and displacement/strain in the surrounding Opalinus clay. Data were available from the start of excavation (April 2012) up to August 2020 for most sensors (more than 5 years from the start of heating in December 2014). To fulfil the overall aim of the task, the work was broken down into a number of steps, starting with simpler models to build confidence in each team’s approach and then moving to more complex models that better represent the FE experiment. Step 0 consisted of 2D benchmark models, gradually increasing the number of processes that are represented from thermal (T) only models in Step 0a, to coupled thermal hydraulic (TH) models in Step 0b with a representation of changing porosity, to coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) models in Step 0c, where porosity changes are calculated by the mechanical model. A detailed specification of processes, parameters, initial and boundary conditions was provided for this step, with the ambition that all teams would work towards close agreement in their model results, thus building confidence in the model implementations. vi It was not straightforward to achieve agreement between the teams, so additional steps (Step 0b2, 0b3, 0c2, 0c3) were added along with derivation of some analytical solutions against which the models could be compared. The reasons for the differences between teams were investigated and found to be caused primarily by different conceptual model assumptions (including temperature dependence of the thermal expansion of water), different model formulations (including porosity evolution) and differences in modelled domain sizes, boundary conditions and grid discretisation. This demonstrates that comparisons between multiple modelling teams and/or comparison with analytical results and experimental data are highly beneficial in providing an indication of uncertainty in model predictions. At the conclusion of Step 0, almost all teams had achieved a close agreement in model results and those that had not achieved an agreement knew the reason for this. Step 1 moved from 2D models to 3D models of the FE experiment without adding technical features like shotcrete or EDZ, and only considering the heating phase. Initially the 3D model was tightly specified to continue to build confidence in the model implementations (Step 1a). The results of Step 1a were compared to the data from the FE-experiment without the teams seeing the data. The teams were then provided with a sub-set of the data from the FE-experiment and invited to consider how best to use the large dataset for model comparison (Step 1b). Teams were then asked to use the data provided to calibrate their models, only changing material property values rather than adding features or processes to their models (Step 1c). In Step 1, teams were asked to only model the heating phase of the experiment, so pressure in the Opalinus Clay was reported as change in pressure since the initial conditions were specified rather than modelled. The change from 2D to 3D models was accompanied by an increase in the dispersion of results between the teams. Some of this was resolved during the task, but some remained and is potentially due to model discretisation. Calibration of parameters was useful in improving the fit of the models to the data but the remaining differences indicated that the models were missing features or processes. In Step 2, the teams were asked to update their models with additional features and processes as well as calibrating parameters to try and improve the fit of the models to the data. Teams were encouraged to represent ventilation of the open FE tunnel prior to backfilling with heaters and bentonite and in Step 2, the absolute pressure in the Opalinus Clay was compared between the teams. Teams took different approaches, but there was consideration of adding shotcrete and an EDZ into the model, representing stress change during excavation and different approaches to modelling ventilation of the FE tunnel. Overall, the documented results showed a very good agreement for temperature. The results for porewater pressure evolution showed a significant improvement for most teams compared to Step 1c with a good agreement to the measurements for several teams whereas some teams overpredicted the pressure increase and others overpredicted the drainage effect especially for the sensors close to the heater. Step 3 was an opportunity for teams to use the models developed in Step 1 and Step 2 to make predictions about the temperature and pressure changes that will be expected at the FE experiment over the next few years in light of the planned changes in thermal output of the heaters.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2021

Mixture Model Framework for Traumatic Brain Injury Prognosis Using Heterogeneous Clinical and Outcome Data

Prognoses of Traumatic Brain Injury (TBI) outcomes are neither easily nor accurately determined from clinical indicators. This is due in part to the heterogeneity of damage inflicted to the brain, ultimately resulting in diverse and complex outcomes. Using a data-driven approach on many distinct data elements may be necessary to describe this large set of outcomes and thereby robustly depict the nuanced differences among TBI patients’ recovery. In this work, we develop a method for modeling large heterogeneous data types relevant to TBI. Our approach is geared toward the probabilistic representation of mixed continuous and discrete variables with missing values. The model is trained on a dataset encompassing a variety of data types, including demographics, blood-based biomarkers, and imaging findings. In addition, it includes a set of clinical outcome assessments at 3, 6, and 12 months post-injury. The model is used to stratify patients into distinct groups in an unsupervised learning setting. We use the model to infer outcomes using input data, and show that the collection of input data reduces uncertainty of outcomes over a baseline approach. In addition, we quantify the performance of a likelihood scoring technique that can be used to self-evaluate the extrapolation risk of prognosis on unseen patients.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2019

Search for supersymmetry in events with a photon, a lepton, and missing transverse momentum in proton-proton collisions at s = 13 TeV

Results of a search for supersymmetry are presented using events with a photon, an electron or muon, and large missing transverse momentum. The analysis is based on a data sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 35.9 fb$^{-1}$ of proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s} =$ 13 TeV, produced by the LHC and collected with the CMS detector in 2016. Theoretical models with gauge-mediated supersymmetry breaking predict events with photons in the final state, as well as electroweak gauge bosons decaying to leptons. Searches for events with a photon, a lepton, and missing transverse momentum are sensitive probes of these models. No excess of events is observed beyond expectations from standard model processes. The results of the search are interpreted in the context of simplified models inspired by gauge-mediated supersymmetry breaking. These models are used to derive upper limits on the production cross sections and set lower bounds on masses of supersymmetric particles. Gaugino masses below 930 GeV are excluded at the 95% confidence level in a simplified model with electroweak production of a neutralino and chargino. For simplified models of gluino and squark pair production, gluino masses up to 1.75 TeV and squark masses up to 1.43 TeV are excluded at the 95% confidence level.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗