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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 829 records · Page 46
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Post-Calibration Uncertainty Analysis for Travel Times at a Naval Weapons Industrial Reserve Plant

The Naval Weapons Industrial Reserve Plant (NWIRP) in McGregor, Texas began manufacturing explosives in 1980 and several hazardous chemicals were discovered in lakes and streams surrounding the site in 1998. Contaminants traveled to local lakes and streams much faster than initially predicted. This research estimated contaminant travel times and identified locations where monitoring wells should be installed to yield the greatest reductions in uncertainties in travel-time predictions. To this end, groundwater and particle-tracking models for NWIRP site were built to predict hydraulic heads and contaminant travel times. Next, parameter (hydraulic conductivities) uncertainties, parameter identifiabilities, observation (hydraulic heads) worth, and predictive (contaminant travel times) uncertainties were quantified. Parameter uncertainties were reduced by up to 92%; a total of 19 of 158 parameters were at least moderately identifiable; travel-time uncertainties were reduced up to 92%. Additionally, travel-time predictions and post-calibration parameter distributions were generated using the null-space Monte Carlo (NSMC) technique. NSMC predicted that conservative tracers exited the flow system within a year, which matches with field data. Finally, an observations-worth analysis found that additional 11 more measurements would reduce travel-time uncertainties by factors from 1.04 to 4.3 over existing data if monitoring wells were installed at the suggested locations.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2020

CheKiPEUQ Intro 2: Harnessing Uncertainties from Data Sets, Bayesian Design of Experiments in Chemical Kinetics**

When choosing experimental conditions, Bayesian statistical tools can predict the experimental choices which will yield the highest information gain. Experimental choices could be temperature, pressure, reaction time, number of measurements, reactor volume, etc.. Three example analyses are presented here, each using the software Chemical Kinetics Parameter Estimation and Uncertainty Quantification (CheKiPEUQ). Information gain is a measure of reduction of uncertainty in a model's parameters. The three chemical system examples presented each illustrate Bayesian Design of Experiments using information gain. In the first chemical example, temperature selection impacts the information gain for the free energy of reaction in a two-component equilibrium reaction. In the second example, temperature and pressure are explored for a competitive adsorption Langmuir replacement reaction system. Finally, the third example is a catalytic membrane reactor which is a culmination of the previous examples. The catalytic membrane reactor has a complex and nonlinear response in the observables which is solved by numerical evaluation. In the three examples, the experimental conditions are treated as design variables for maximizing information gain.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Assessing Uncertainty in Modeling Stress Corrosion Cracking

This report summarizes the collaboration between Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to improve the state of knowledge on chloride induced stress corrosion cracking (CISCC). The foundation of this work relied on using SNL’s CISCC computer code to assess the current state of knowledge for probabilistically modeling CISCC on stainless steel canisters. This work is presented as three tasks. The first task is exploring and independently comparing crack growth rate (CGR) models typically used in CISCC modeling by the research community. The second task is implementing two of the more conservative CGR models from the first task into SNL’s full CISCC code to understand the impact of the different CGR models on a full probabilistic analysis while studying uncertainty from three key input parameters. The combined work of the first two tasks showed that properly measuring salt deposition rates is impactful to reducing uncertainty when modeling CISCC. The work in Task 2 also showed how probabilistic CGR models can be more appropriate at capturing aleatory uncertainty when modeling SCC. Lastly, appropriate and realistic input parameters relevant for CISCC modeling were documented in the last task as a product of the simulations considered in the first two tasks.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Bayesian averaging for ground state masses of atomic nuclei in a Machine Learning approach

We present global predictions of the ground state mass of atomic nuclei based on a novel Machine Learning algorithm. We combine precision nuclear experimental measurements together with theoretical predictions of unmeasured nuclei. This hybrid data set is used to train a probabilistic neural network. In addition to training on this data, a physics-based loss function is employed to help refine the solutions. The resultant Bayesian averaged predictions have excellent performance compared to the testing set and come with well-quantified uncertainties which are critical for contemporary scientific applications. We assess extrapolations of the model’s predictions and estimate the growth of uncertainties in the region far from measurements.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluating 239 Pu(n,f) cross sections via machine learning using experimental data, covariances, and measurement features

In this paper, the neutron-induced 239 Pu fission cross section, 239 Pu(n,f), is evaluated from 1–20 MeV using experimental data and associated covariances while also considering information on the measurement, termed features here. For instance, methods to determine the background, sample backing material, or impurities in the sample, are explicitly taken into account in the evaluation process. To this end, outliers in the experimental data are identified with a modified version of the Hybrid Robust Support Vector Machine. In a second step, two machine learning methods (logistic regression with elastic net regularization and random forest regression with SHAP feature importance metric) are used to highlight measurement features that are common among many of the outlying data points. Based on this analysis, penalty uncertainties are added to the experimental covariances of outlying data points that have outlier measurement features and are put through the generalized-least-squares evaluation. The resulting evaluated mean values and covariances differ distinctly from those data evaluated without the penalty uncertainties. These results highlight that certain measurement features should be more closely examined.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Illuminating Dark Matter Admixed in Neutron Stars with Simultaneous Mass–Radius Constraints

We investigate how simultaneous mass and radius measurements of massive neutron stars can help constrain the properties of dark matter possibly admixed in them. Within a fermionic dark matter model that interacts only through gravitation, along with a well-constrained nuclear matter equation of state, we show that the simultaneous mass and radius measurement of PSRJ0740+6620 reduces the uncertainty of dark matter central energy density by more than 50% compared to the results obtained from using the two observables independently, while other dark matter parameters remain unconstrained. Additionally, we find that the dark matter fraction fD should be smaller than 2% when constrained by the observed neutron star maximum mass alone, and it could be even smaller than 0.3% with the simultaneous measurement of mass and radius, supporting the conclusion that only a small amount of dark matter exists in dark matter admixed neutron stars (DANSs).

NICER↗
DOE OSTI2025

First observations of solar halo gamma rays over a full solar cycle

We analyze 15 years of Fermi-LAT data and produce a detailed model of the Sun’s inverse-Compton scattering emission (solar halo), which is powered by interactions between ambient cosmic-ray electrons and positrons with sunlight. By developing a novel analysis method to analyze moving sources, we robustly detect the solar halo at energies between 31.6 MeV and 100 GeV, and angular extensions up to 45° from the Sun, providing new insight into spatial regions where there are no direct measurements of the Galactic cosmic-ray flux. The large statistical significance of our signal allows us to subdivide the data and provide the first 𝛾-ray probes into the time variation and azimuthal asymmetry of the solar modulation potential, finding time-dependent changes in solar modulation both parallel and perpendicular to the ecliptic plane. Our results are consistent with (but with independent uncertainties from) local cosmic-ray measurements, unlocking new probes into astrophysical processes near the solar surface.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Catalog of Quasar Properties from Sloan Digital Sky Survey Data Release 16

We present a catalog of continuum and emission-line properties for 750,414 broad-line quasars included in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Data Release 16 quasar catalog (DR16Q), measured from optical spectroscopy. These quasars cover broad ranges in redshift (0.1 ≲ z ≲ 6) and luminosity (44 ≲ log(L bol /erg s -1 ) ≲ 48), and probe lower luminosities than an earlier compilation of SDSS DR7 quasars. Derived physical quantities such as single-epoch virial black hole masses and bolometric luminosities are also included in this catalog. We present improved systemic redshifts and realistic redshift uncertainties for DR16Q quasars using the measured line peaks and correcting for velocity shifts of various lines with respect to the systemic velocity. About 1%, 1.4%, and 11% of the original DR16Q redshifts deviate from the systemic redshifts by |ΔV| > 1500 km s -1 , |ΔV| $\in$ [1000, 1500] km s -1 , and |ΔV| $\in$ [500, 1000] km s -1 , respectively; about 1900 DR16Q redshifts were catastrophically wrong (|ΔV| > 10,000 km s -1 ). We demonstrate the utility of this data product in quantifying the spectral diversity and correlations among physical properties of quasars with large statistical samples.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Measurement of multijet azimuthal correlations and determination of the strong coupling in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}=13\,\text {Te}\hspace{-.08em}\text {V} $

A measurement is presented of a ratio observable that provides a measure of the azimuthal correlations among jets with large transverse momentum $p_{\textrm{T}}$. This observable is measured in multijet events over the range of $p_{\textrm{T}} = 360$–$3170\,\text {Ge}\hspace{-.08em}\text {V} $ based on data collected by the CMS experiment in proton-proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 13$\,\text {Te}\hspace{-.08em}\text {V}$, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 134$\,\text {fb}^{-1}$. The results are compared with predictions from Monte Carlo parton-shower event generator simulations, as well as with fixed-order perturbative quantum chromodynamics (pQCD) predictions at next-to-leading-order (NLO) accuracy obtained with different parton distribution functions (PDFs) and corrected for nonperturbative and electroweak effects. Data and theory agree within uncertainties. From the comparison of the measured observable with the pQCD prediction obtained with the NNPDF3.1 NLO PDFs, the strong coupling at the Z boson mass scale is $\alpha _\textrm{S} (m_{{\textrm{Z}}}) =0.1177 \pm 0.0013\, \text {(exp)} _{-0.0073}^{+0.0116} \,\text {(theo)} = 0.1177_{-0.0074}^{+0.0117}$, where the total uncertainty is dominated by the scale dependence of the fixed-order predictions. A test of the running of $\alpha _\textrm{S}$ in the $\,\text {Te}\hspace{-.08em}\text {V}$ region shows no deviation from the expected NLO pQCD behaviour.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Measurement of K*(892) ± production in inelastic pp collisions at the LHC

The first results on K*(892) ± resonance production in inelastic pp collisions at LHC energies of √s = 5.02, 8, and 13 TeV are presented. The K*(892) ± has been reconstructed via its hadronic decay channel K*(892)→±K$^0_S$ +π ± with the ALICE detector. Measurements of transverse momentum distributions, p T -integrated yields, and mean transverse momenta for charged K*(892) are found to be consistent with previous ALICE measurements for neutral K*(892) within uncertainties. For p T >1 GeV/c the K*(892) ± transverse momentum spectra become harder with increasing centre-of-mass energy from 5.02 to 13 TeV, similar to what previously observed for charged kaons and pions. For p T < GeV/c the K*(892) ± yield does not evolve significantly and the abundance of K*(892) ± relative to K is rather independent of the collision energy. The transverse momentum spectra, measured for K*(892) ± at midrapidity in the interval 0 < p T <15 GeV/c, are not well described by predictions of different versions of PYTHIA 6, PYTHIA 8 and EPOS-LHC event generators. These generators reproduce the measured p T -integrated K *± /K ratios and describe well the momentum dependence for p T <2 GeV/c.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2020

Neutron-neutron quasifree scattering in neutron-deuteron breakup at 10 MeV

New measurements of the neutron-neutron quasifree scattering cross section in neutron-deuteron breakup at an incident neutron energy of 10.0 MeV are reported. The experiment setup was optimized to evaluate the technique for determining the integrated beam-target luminosity in neutron-neutron coincidence cross-section measurements in neutron-deuteron breakup. The measurements were carried out with a systematic uncertainty of ± 5.6%. Our data are in agreement with theoretical calculations performed using the CD-Bonn nucleon-nucleon potential in the Faddeev formalism. The measured integrated cross section over the quasifree peak is 20.5 ± 0.5(stat) ± 1.1 (sys) mb/sr 2 in comparison with the theory prediction of 20.1 mb/sr 2 . Overall, these results validate our technique for determining the beam-target luminosity in neutron-deuteron breakup measurements.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Characterizing model uncertainties in simulated coast-to-offshore wind over the northeast U.S. using multi-platform measurements from the TCAP field campaign

Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, such as the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, are widely used to provide estimates of the offshore wind energy resource owing to their large spatial coverage compared to available observations. Nevertheless, spatiotemporal distribution of model biases is highly dependent on factors including model configuration, location, and the interplay of multi-scale physical processes. Here, in this study, we focus on the characterization of model uncertainties in simulated coast-to-offshore winds over the northeast U.S., by varying sea surface temperature (SST) forcings, surface layer (SL) and planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterizations, as well as identifying biases that may be directly passed from initial and boundary conditions. Multiple measurements, including aircraft data collected during the U.S. Department of Energy's Two-Column Aerosol Project (TCAP) experiment, are used to constrain the model results and facilitate quantitative comparisons. Our analysis indicates while SST forcing has notable impacts on simulated air temperature and moisture within PBL, the modeled winds are in general more sensitive to the choices of SL and PBL physics than to SST. The model’s forcing data not only controls the vertical dependence of wind speed errors, but also alters regional variability in wind speed’s spatial correlation. Bias comparisons between ERA5 reanalysis and ensemble simulations revealed significant similarity, particularly in wind speed biases during winter, underscoring their dependency on initial and boundary conditions. Coastal and offshore near-surface wind speed biases tend to exhibit much higher similarity in winter than in summer due to the presence of much stronger and more persistent synoptic wind conditions. This study highlights the importance of accurate atmospheric forcing and parameterization choices in improving wind forecasts and suggests the potential for extrapolating coastal wind biases to offshore locations, aiding wind energy forecasting and informing the Wind Forecast Improvement Project-3 (WFIP3).

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Measurement of hybrid rocket solid fuel regression rate for a slab burner using deep learning

This study presents an imaging-based deep learning tool to measure the fuel regression rate in a 2D slab burner experiment for hybrid rocket fuels. The slab burner experiment is designed to verify mechanistic models of reacting boundary layer combustion in hybrid rockets by the measurement of fuel regression rates. A DSLR camera with a high intensity flash is used to capture images throughout the burn and the images are then used to find the fuel boundary to calculate the regression rate. A U-net convolutional neural network architecture is explored to segment the fuel from the experimental images. Here, a Monte-Carlo Dropout process is used to quantify the regression rate uncertainty produced from the network. The U-net computed regression rates are compared with values from other techniques from literature and show error less than 10%. An oxidizer flux dependency study is performed and shows the U-net predictions of regression rates are accurate and independent of the oxidizer flux, when the images in the training set are not over-saturated. Training with monochrome images is explored and is not successful at predicting the fuel regression rate from images with high noise. The network is superior at filtering out noise introduced by soot, pitting, and wax deposition on the chamber glass as well as the flame when compared to traditional image processing techniques, such as threshold binary conversion and spatial filtering. U-net consistently provides low error image segmentations to allow accurate computation of the regression rate of the fuel.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

K ∗ (892) ± resonance production in Pb−Pb collisions at $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = 5.02 TeV

The production of K *⁢(892) ± meson resonance is measured at midrapidity (| y |<0.5) in Pb-Pb collisions at $\sqrt{^sNN}$ = 5.02 TeV using the ALICE detector at the CERN Large Hadron Collider. The resonance is reconstructed via its hadronic decay channel K *⁢(892) ± → K $^0_S$⁢π ± . The transverse momentum distributions are obtained for various centrality intervals in the p T range of 0.4-16 GeV/ c . Measurements of integrated yields, mean transverse momenta, and particle yield ratios are reported and found to be consistent with previous ALICE measurements for K *⁢(892) 0 within uncertainties. The p T -integrated yield ratio 2 K *⁢(892) ± ⁢/(⁢ K + + K - ) in central Pb-Pb collisions shows a significant suppression at a level of 9.3σ⁢ relative to pp collisions. Thermal model calculations result in an overprediction of the particle yield ratio. Although both hadron resonance gas in partial chemical equilibrium (HRG-PCE) and MUSIC + SMASH simulations consider the hadronic phase, only HRG-PCE accurately represents the measurements, whereas MUSIC + SMASH simulations tend to overpredict the particle yield ratio. These observations, along with the kinetic freeze-out temperatures extracted from the yields measured for light-flavored hadrons using the HRG-PCE model, indicate a finite hadronic phase lifetime, which decreases with increasing collision centrality percentile. The p T-differential yield ratios 2 K *⁢(892) ±⁢ /(⁢ K + + K - ) and 2 K *⁢(892) ± ⁢/(⁢π + +π - ) are presented and compared with measurements in pp collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 5.02 TeV. Both particle ratios are found to be suppressed by up to a factor of five at p T <2.0 GeV/ c in central Pb-Pb collisions and are qualitatively consistent with expectations for rescattering effects in the hadronic phase. The nuclear modification factor ( R AA ) shows a smooth evolution with centrality and is found to be below unity at p T >8 GeV/ c , consistent with measurements for other light-flavored hadrons. The smallest values are observed in most central collisions, indicating larger energy loss of partons traversing the dense medium.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Improving the characterization of fusion in a MuSIC detector by spatial localization

Multi-Sampling Ionization Chambers (MuSIC) provide an efficient means of measuring nuclear reactions with low beam rates (< 10 6 pps). However, in comparison to thin-target measurements, prior measurements using MuSIC detectors all manifest fusion excitation functions with wide error bars in the energy dimension. This uncertainty limits the applicability of these devices in measuring near and sub-barrier fusion cross-sections. Key to overcoming this limitation is spatial localization of the fusion in the detector. By comparing the measured ionization in the MuSIC detector with accurate energy loss calculations the position of the fusion in the detector is determined. The analysis not only provides the desired improvement in energy resolution, but it also allows extraction of the atomic number of the evaporation residues following fusion. Furthermore, the effectiveness of this approach is demonstrated for 18 O+ 12 C measured with MuSIC@Indiana.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2025

New physics versus quenching factors in Coherent Neutrino Scattering

Recent results on the Coherent Elastic Neutrino-Nucleus Scattering (CEνNS) on germanium present significant discrepancies among experiments. We perform a combined analysis of the Dresden-II, CONUS+ and COHERENT data, quantifying the impact of quenching factor uncertainties on their CEνNS cross section measurement. No choice of quenching factor can bring these three data sets into mutual agreement, whereas the combination of COHERENT with either Dresden-II or CONUS+ agrees well albeit for very different quenching factors. We further study the quenching factor dependence on the sensitivity of these experiments to a large neutrino magnetic moment, finding that the constraints can vary by up to an order of magnitude. Our work highlights the importance of reducing this uncertainty on quenching factors in order to probe new physics from neutrinos at the low-energy frontier.

neutrino interactions↗
DOE OSTI2023

Observation of the Rare Decay of the 𝜂 Meson to Four Muons

A search for the rare η → μ + μ − μ + μ − double-Dalitz decay is performed using a sample of proton-proton collisions, collected by the CMS experiment at the CERN LHC with high-rate muon triggers in 2017-2018 and corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 101 fb −1 . A signal having a statistical significance well in excess of 5 standard deviations is observed. Using the η → μ + μ − decay as normalization, the branching fraction B(η → μ + μ − μ + μ − ) = [5.0 ± 0.8 (stat) ± 0.7 (syst) ± 0.7 (B 2μ )] × 10 −9 is measured, where the last term is the uncertainty in the normalization channel branching fraction. This work achieves an improved precision of over five orders of magnitude compared to previous results, leading to the first measurement of this branching fraction, which is found to agree with theoretical predictions.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Dark Energy Survey Year 6 Results: Cosmological Constraints from Cosmic Shear

We present legacy cosmic shear measurements and cosmological constraints using six years of Dark Energy Survey imaging data. From these data, we study ~140 million galaxies (8.29 galaxies/arcmin$^2$) that are 50% complete at i=24.0 and extend beyond z=1.2. We divide the galaxies into four redshift bins, and obtain cosmic shear measurement with a signal-to-noise of 83, a factor of 2 higher than the Year 3 analysis. We model the uncertainties due to shear and redshift calibrations, and discard measurements on small angular scales to mitigate baryon feedback and other small-scale uncertainties. We consider two fiducial models to account for the intrinsic alignment (IA) of the galaxies. We conduct a blind analysis in the context of the $Λ$CDM model and find $S_8 \equiv σ_8(Ω_m/0.3)^{0.5}=0.798^{+0.014}_{-0.015}$ (marginalized mean with 68% CL) when using the non-linear alignment model (NLA) and $S_{8} = 0.783^{+0.019}_{-0.015}$ with the tidal alignment and tidal torque model (TATT), providing 1.8% and 2.5% uncertainty on $S_8$. Compared to constraints from the cosmic microwave background from Planck 2018, ACT DR6 and SPT-3G DR1, we find consistency in the full parameter space at 1.1$σ$ (1.7$σ$) and in $S_8$ at 2.0$σ$ (2.3$σ$) for NLA (TATT). The result using the NLA model is preferred according to the Bayesian evidence. We find that the model choice for IA and baryon feedback can impact the value of our $S_8$ constraint up to $1σ$. For our fiducial model choices, the resultant uncertainties in $S_8$ are primarily degraded by the removal of scales, as well as the marginalization over the IA parameters. We demonstrate that our result is internally consistent and robust to different choices in calibrating the data, owing to methodological improvements in shear and redshift measurement, laying the foundation for next-generation cosmic shear programs.

Abbott, T. M.C. [Cerro-Tololo InterAmerican Obs.]↗