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NASA NTRS1975

Fixed-range optimum trajectories for short-haul aircraft

An algorithm, based on the energy-state method, is derived for calculating optimum trajectories with a range constraint. The basis of the algorithm is the assumption that optimum trajectories consist of, at most, three segments: an increasing energy segment (climb); a constant energy segment (cruise); and a decreasing energy segment (descent). This assumption allows energy to be used as the independent variable in the increasing and decreasing energy segments, thereby eliminating the integration of a separate adjoint differential equation and simplifying the calculus of variations problem to one requiring only pointwise extremization of algebraic functions. The algorithm is used to compute minimum fuel, minimum time, and minimum direct-operating-cost trajectories, with range as a parameter, for an in-service CTOL aircraft and for an advanced STOL aircraft. For the CTOL aircraft and the minimum-fuel performance function, the optimum controls, consisting of air-speed and engine power setting, are continuous functions of the energy in both climb and descent as well as near the maximum or cruise energy. This is also true for the STOL aircraft except in the descent where at one energy level a nearly constant energy dive segment occurs, yielding a discontinuity in the airspeed at that energy. The reason for this segment appears to be the relatively high fuel flow at idle power of the engines used by this STOL aircraft. Use of a simplified trajectory which eliminates the dive increases the fuel consumption of the total descent trajectory by about 10 percent and the time to fly the descent by about 19 percent compared to the optimum.

Erzberger, H.↗
NASA NTRS1997

A Numerical Method for Calculating Stellar Occultation Light Curves from an Arbitrary Atmospheric Model

We present a method for speeding up numerical calculations of a light curve for a stellar occultation by a planetary atmosphere with an arbitrary atmospheric model that has spherical symmetry. This improved speed makes least-squares fitting for model parameters practical. Our method takes as input several sets of values for the first two radial derivatives of the refractivity at different values of model parameters, and interpolates to obtain the light curve at intermediate values of one or more model parameters. It was developed for small occulting bodies such as Pluto and Triton, but is applicable to planets of all sizes. We also present the results of a series of tests showing that our method calculates light curves that are correct to an accuracy of 10(exp -4) of the unocculted stellar flux. The test benchmarks are (i) an atmosphere with a l/r dependence of temperature, which yields an analytic solution for the light curve, (ii) an atmosphere that produces an exponential refraction angle, and (iii) a small-planet isothermal model. With our method, least-squares fits to noiseless data also converge to values of parameters with fractional errors of no more than 10(exp -4), with the largest errors occurring in small planets. These errors are well below the precision of the best stellar occultation data available. Fits to noisy data had formal errors consistent with the level of synthetic noise added to the light curve. We conclude: (i) one should interpolate refractivity derivatives and then form light curves from the interpolated values, rather than interpolating the light curves themselves; (ii) for the most accuracy, one must specify the atmospheric model for radii many scale heights above half light; and (iii) for atmospheres with smoothly varying refractivity with altitude, light curves can be sampled as coarsely as two points per scale height.

Chamberlain, D. M.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Non-Genomic Origins of Proteins and Metabolism

It is proposed that evolution of inanimate matter to cells endowed with a nucleic acid- based coding of genetic information was preceded by an evolutionary phase, in which peptides not coded by nucleic acids were able to self-organize into networks capable of evolution towards increasing metabolic complexity. Recent findings that truly different, simple peptides (Keefe and Szostak, 2001) can perform the same function (such as ATP binding) provide experimental support for this mechanism of early protobiological evolution. The central concept underlying this mechanism is that the reproduction of cellular functions alone was sufficient for self-maintenance of protocells, and that self- replication of macromolecules was not required at this stage of evolution. The precise transfer of information between successive generations of the earliest protocells was unnecessary and, possibly, undesirable. The key requirement in the initial stage of protocellular evolution was an ability to rapidly explore a large number of protein sequences in order to discover a set of molecules capable of supporting self- maintenance and growth of protocells. Undoubtedly, the essential protocellular functions were carried out by molecules not nearly as efficient or as specific as contemporary proteins. Many, potentially unrelated sequences could have performed each of these functions at an evolutionarily acceptable level. As evolution progressed, however proteins must have performed their functions with increasing efficiency and specificity. This, in turn, put additional constraints on protein sequences and the fraction of proteins capable of performing their functions at the required level decreased. At some point, the likelihood of generating a sufficiently efficient set of proteins through a non-coded synthesis was so small that further evolution was not possible without storing information about the sequences of these proteins. Beyond this point, further evolution required coupling between proteins and informational polymers that is characteristic to all known forms of life. The emergence of such coupling must be postulated in any scenario of the origin of life, no matter whether it starts with RNA or proteins. To examine the evolutionary potential of non-genomic systems, a simple, computationally tractable model, which is still capable of capturing the essential features of the real system, has been studied computationally. Both constructive and destructive processes have been introduced into the model in a stochastic manner. Instead of assuming random reaction sets, only a suite of protobiologically plausible reactions has been considered. Peptides have been explicitly considered as protoenzymes and their catalytic efficiencies have been assigned on the basis of biochemical principles and experimental estimates. Simulations have been carried out using a novel approach (The Next Reaction Method) that is appropriate even for very low concentrations of reactants. Studies have focused on global autocatalytic processes and their diversity.

Pohorille, Andrew↗
NASA NTRS2007

GIFTS SM EDU Level 1B Algorithms

The Geosynchronous Imaging Fourier Transform Spectrometer (GIFTS) SensorModule (SM) Engineering Demonstration Unit (EDU) is a high resolution spectral imager designed to measure infrared (IR) radiances using a Fourier transform spectrometer (FTS). The GIFTS instrument employs three focal plane arrays (FPAs), which gather measurements across the long-wave IR (LWIR), short/mid-wave IR (SMWIR), and visible spectral bands. The raw interferogram measurements are radiometrically and spectrally calibrated to produce radiance spectra, which are further processed to obtain atmospheric profiles via retrieval algorithms. This paper describes the GIFTS SM EDU Level 1B algorithms involved in the calibration. The GIFTS Level 1B calibration procedures can be subdivided into four blocks. In the first block, the measured raw interferograms are first corrected for the detector nonlinearity distortion, followed by the complex filtering and decimation procedure. In the second block, a phase correction algorithm is applied to the filtered and decimated complex interferograms. The resulting imaginary part of the spectrum contains only the noise component of the uncorrected spectrum. Additional random noise reduction can be accomplished by applying a spectral smoothing routine to the phase-corrected spectrum. The phase correction and spectral smoothing operations are performed on a set of interferogram scans for both ambient and hot blackbody references. To continue with the calibration, we compute the spectral responsivity based on the previous results, from which, the calibrated ambient blackbody (ABB), hot blackbody (HBB), and scene spectra can be obtained. We now can estimate the noise equivalent spectral radiance (NESR) from the calibrated ABB and HBB spectra. The correction schemes that compensate for the fore-optics offsets and off-axis effects are also implemented. In the third block, we developed an efficient method of generating pixel performance assessments. In addition, a random pixel selection scheme is designed based on the pixel performance evaluation. Finally, in the fourth block, the single pixel algorithms are applied to the entire FPA.

Tian, Jialin↗
NASA NTRS2008

Validation of High-Fidelity CFD Simulations for Rocket Injector Design

Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) has the potential to improve the historical rocket injector design process by evaluating the sensitivity of performance and injector-driven thermal environments to the details of the injector geometry and key operational parameters. Methodical verification and validation efforts on a range of coaxial injector elements have shown the current production CFD capability must be improved in order to quantitatively impact the injector design process. This paper documents the status of a focused effort to compare and understand the predictive capabilities and computational requirements of a range of CFD methodologies on a set of single element injector model problems. The steady Reynolds-Average Navier-Stokes (RANS), unsteady Reynolds-Average Navier-Stokes (URANS) and three different approaches using the Large Eddy Simulation (LES) technique were used to simulate the initial model problem, a single element coaxial injector using gaseous oxygen and gaseous hydrogen propellants. While one high-fidelity LES result matches the experimental combustion chamber wall heat flux very well, there is no monotonic convergence to the data with increasing computational tool fidelity. Systematic evaluation of key flow field regions such as the flame zone, the head end recirculation zone and the downstream near wall zone has shed significant, though as of yet incomplete, light on the complex, underlying causes for the performance level of each technique. 1 Aerospace Engineer and Combustion CFD Team Leader, MS ER42, NASA MSFC, AL 35812, Senior Member, AIAA. 2 Professor and Director, Computational Combustion Laboratory, School of Aerospace Engineering, 270 Ferst Dr., Atlanta, GA 30332, Associate Fellow, AIAA. 3 Reilly Professor of Engineering, School of Mechanical Engineering, 585 Purdue Mall, West Lafayette, IN 47907, Fellow, AIAA. 4 Principal Member of Technical Staff, Combustion Research Facility, 7011 East Avenue, MS9051, Livermore, CA 94550, Associate Fellow, AIAA. 5 J. L. and G. H. McCain Endowed Chair, Mechanical Engineering, 104 Research Building East, University Park, PA 16802, Fellow, AIAA. American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics 1

Tucker, P. Kevin↗
NASA NTRS1973

A Method of Monitoring Non-Resonant Raman Lidar Returns During Daylight Hours

A method for using non-resonant Raman lidar during daytime hours is presented. A dual (or quadruple) arrangement of electro-optical channels is set up in the lidar receiver. Each channel contains its own optical spectral response as determined by an appropriate set of interference filters. The incoming signal is split and fed into two channels, filtered (simultaneously) and then inserted into the input terminals of an operational amplifier. The difference signal is selected and amplified whereas the common portion of the signal is highly attenuated (Common Mode Re.jection Ratio = 75-80db). For the present hardware, daylight intensities 10(exp 2)-10(exp 3) times Raman signals are received simultaneously. Mean values of intensities of daylight signals which give rise to a constant differences merely shift the value of the measured variable at the ground. These mean value signals have their common part highly attenuated. The differences of the fluctuation portions of the daylight signal represents a noise signal. Identical (space-time) optical paths for each component of the daylight signal produce the same fluctuational spectra in each channel. Hence noise levels, much less than signal levels, are anticipated. First a N2-H2 ) signal pair is differenced. Then an N2-O2 pair is differenced and used for instrumental normalization purposes. Signal levels to be encountered are quite well known as a result of prior field work. Improved optical design of laser system can reduce mean value of daylight intensities by 10(exp 2). Thus the mean daylight intensity can be set equal to the expected signal levels by more advanced optical design. Performance characteristics of photomultiplier pairs are discussed in this connection.

Cooney, John↗
NASA NTRS2013

Spatial Statistical Data Fusion (SSDF)

As remote sensing for scientific purposes has transitioned from an experimental technology to an operational one, the selection of instruments has become more coordinated, so that the scientific community can exploit complementary measurements. However, tech nological and scientific heterogeneity across devices means that the statistical characteristics of the data they collect are different. The challenge addressed here is how to combine heterogeneous remote sensing data sets in a way that yields optimal statistical estimates of the underlying geophysical field, and provides rigorous uncertainty measures for those estimates. Different remote sensing data sets may have different spatial resolutions, different measurement error biases and variances, and other disparate characteristics. A state-of-the-art spatial statistical model was used to relate the true, but not directly observed, geophysical field to noisy, spatial aggregates observed by remote sensing instruments. The spatial covariances of the true field and the covariances of the true field with the observations were modeled. The observations are spatial averages of the true field values, over pixels, with different measurement noise superimposed. A kriging framework is used to infer optimal (minimum mean squared error and unbiased) estimates of the true field at point locations from pixel-level, noisy observations. A key feature of the spatial statistical model is the spatial mixed effects model that underlies it. The approach models the spatial covariance function of the underlying field using linear combinations of basis functions of fixed size. Approaches based on kriging require the inversion of very large spatial covariance matrices, and this is usually done by making simplifying assumptions about spatial covariance structure that simply do not hold for geophysical variables. In contrast, this method does not require these assumptions, and is also computationally much faster. This method is fundamentally different than other approaches to data fusion for remote sensing data because it is inferential rather than merely descriptive. All approaches combine data in a way that minimizes some specified loss function. Most of these are more or less ad hoc criteria based on what looks good to the eye, or some criteria that relate only to the data at hand.

Braverman, Amy J.↗
NASA NTRS2018

CALIPSO Lidar Level 3 Aerosol Profile Product: Version 3 Algorithm Design

The CALIPSO (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations) level 3 aerosol profile product reports globally gridded, quality-screened, monthly mean aerosol extinction profiles retrieved by CALIOP (the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization). This paper describes the quality screening and averaging methods used to generate the version 3 product. The fundamental input data are CALIOP level 2 aerosol extinction profiles and layer classification information (aerosol, cloud, and clear-air). Prior to aggregation, the extinction profiles are quality-screened by a series of filters to reduce the impact of layer detection errors, layer classification errors, extinction retrieval errors, and biases due to an intermittent signal anomaly at the surface. The relative influence of these filters are compared in terms of sample rejection frequency, mean extinction, and mean aerosol optical depth (AOD). The “extinction QC flag” filter is the most influential in preventing high-biases in level 3 mean extinction, while the “misclassified cirrus fringe” filter is most aggressive at rejecting cirrus misclassified as aerosol. The impact of quality screening on monthly mean aerosol extinction is investigated globally and regionally. After applying quality filters, the level 3 algorithm calculates monthly mean AOD by vertically integrating the monthly mean quality-screened aerosol extinction profile. Calculating monthly mean AOD by integrating the monthly mean extinction profile prevents a low bias that would result from alternately integrating the set of extinction profiles first and then averaging the resultant AOD values together. Ultimately, the quality filters reduce level 3 mean AOD by −24 and −31 % for global ocean and global land, respectively, indicating the importance of quality screening.

Tackett, Jason L.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Virtex-II Pro SEE Test Methods and Results

The Xilinx Virtex-II Pro is a platform FPGA that embeds multiple microprocessors within the fabric of an SRAM-based reprogrammable FPGA. The variety and quantity of resources provided by this family of devices make them very attractive for spaceflight applications. However, these devices will be susceptible to single event effects (SEE), which must be mitigated. To use the Virtex-II Pro reliably in space applications, these devices must first be tested to determine if they are susceptible to single event latchup (SEL), the degree to which they are susceptible to single event upsets (SEU) and single event transients (SET), and how these effects are manifested in the device. With this information, mitigations schemes can be developed and tested that address the specific susceptiblities of these devices. This initial SEE test uses a commercial off the shelf Virtex-II Pro evaluation board, with a single processor XC2VP7 FPGA. The FPGA on this board is an acid etched device, which can be partially covered with a shield. The shield covers a portion of the logic, routing, and memory resources along with some of the RocketIO transceivers. The processor, along with a large portion of logic, routing, memory, and transceivers are left exposed. This test will be performed at the Cyclotron Laboratories at Texas A&M University and Michigan State University using ions of varying energy levels and fluencies.

Petrick, David↗
NASA NTRS1993

Spacecraft signal sources portable test system

There is a frequent need to measure the frequency stability and phase noise levels of very high performance signal sources that are required for certain spacecraft missions. These measurements need to be done at different locations as the spacecraft subsystems progress through the various stages of development, assembly, test, and integration. Allan Deviation and Phase Noise of high performance sources are generally measured by comparing the unit under test to a reference standard. Five basic requirements are associated with making these kind of measurements: (1) the reference standard performance needs to be equal or better than the unit under test; (2) the measurement system needs to accommodate odd, nonstandard measurement frequencies that can range from 4 MHz to 35 GHz; (3) warm-up frequency drift and aging can corrupt a measurement and must be dealt with; (4) test equipment generated noise must be understood and prevented from limiting the measurements; (5) test equipment noise performance must be verifiable in the field as needed. A portable measurement system that was built by JPL and used in the field is described. The methods of addressing the above requirements are outlined and some measurement noise floor values are given. This test set was recently used to measure state of the art crystal oscillator frequency standards on the TOPEX and MARS OBSERVER spacecraft during several stages of acceptance tests.

Kirk, Albert↗
NASA NTRS2010

Recent Changes in Arctic Sea Ice Melt Onset, Freeze-Up, and Melt Season Length

In order to explore changes and trends in the timing of Arctic sea ice melt onset and freeze-up and therefore melt season length, we developed a method that obtains this information directly from satellite passive microwave data, creating a consistent data set from 1979 through present. We furthermore distinguish between early melt (the first day of the year when melt is detected) and the first day of continuous melt. A similar distinction is made for the freeze-up. Using this method we analyze trends in melt onset and freeze-up for 10 different Arctic regions. In all regions except for the Sea of Okhotsk, which shows a very slight and statistically insignificant positive trend (O.4 days/decade), trends in melt onset are negative, i.e. towards earlier melt. The trends range from -1.0day/decade for the Bering Sea to -7.3 days/decade for the East Greenland Sea. Except for the Sea of Okhotsk all areas also show a trend towards later autumn freeze onset. The Chukchi/Beaufort Seas and Laptev/East Siberian Seas observe the strongest trends with 7 days/decade. For the entire Arctic, the melt season length has increased by about 20 days over the last 30 years. Largest trends of over 1O days/decade are seen for Hudson Bay, the East Greenland Sea the Laptev/East Siberian Seas, and the Chukchi/Beaufort Seas. Those trends are statistically significant a1 the 99% level.

Markus, Thorsten↗
NASA NTRS1997

Predictive Modeling in Plasma Reactor and Process Design

Research continues toward the improvement and increased understanding of high-density plasma tools. Such reactor systems are lauded for their independent control of ion flux and energy enabling high etch rates with low ion damage and for their improved ion velocity anisotropy resulting from thin collisionless sheaths and low neutral pressures. Still, with the transition to 300 mm processing, achieving etch uniformity and high etch rates concurrently may be a formidable task for such large diameter wafers for which computational modeling can play an important role in successful reactor and process design. The inductively coupled plasma (ICP) reactor is the focus of the present investigation. The present work attempts to understand the fundamental physical phenomena of such systems through computational modeling. Simulations will be presented using both computational fluid dynamics (CFD) techniques and the direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) method for argon and chlorine discharges. ICP reactors generally operate at pressures on the order of 1 to 10 mTorr. At such low pressures, rarefaction can be significant to the degree that the constitutive relations used in typical CFD techniques become invalid and a particle simulation must be employed. This work will assess the extent to which CFD can be applied and evaluate the degree to which accuracy is lost in prediction of the phenomenon of interest; i.e., etch rate. If the CFD approach is found reasonably accurate and bench-marked with DSMC and experimental results, it has the potential to serve as a design tool due to the rapid time relative to DSMC. The continuum CFD simulation solves the governing equations for plasma flow using a finite difference technique with an implicit Gauss-Seidel Line Relaxation method for time marching toward a converged solution. The equation set consists of mass conservation for each species, separate energy equations for the electrons and heavy species, and momentum equations for the gas. The sheath is modeled by imposing the Bohm velocity to the ions near the walls. The DSMC method simulates each constituent of the gas as a separate species which would be analogous in CFD to employing separate species mass, momentum, and energy equations. All particles including electrons are moved and allowed to collide with one another with the stipulation that the electrons remain tied to the ions consistent with the concept of ambipolar diffusion. The velocities of the electrons are allowed to be modified during collisions and are not confined to a Maxwellian distribution. These benefits come at a price in terms of computational time and memory. The DSMC and CFD are made as consistent as possible by using similar chemistry and power deposition models. Although the comparison of CFD and DSMC is interesting, the main goal of this work is the increased understanding of high-density plasma flowfields that can then direct improvements in both techniques. This work is unique in the level of the physical models employed in both the DSMC and CFD for high-density plasma reactor applications. For example, the electrons are simulated in the present DSMC work which has not been done before for low temperature plasma processing problems. In the CFD approach, for the first time, the charged particle transport (discharge physics) has been self-consistently coupled to the gas flow and heat transfer.

Hash, D. B.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Developing Advanced Support Technologies for Planetary Exploration Missions

The United States Vision for Space Exploration calls for sending robots and humans to explore the Earth s moon, the planet Mars, and beyond. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is developing a set of design reference missions that will provide further detail to these plans. Lunar missions are expected to provide a stepping stone, through operational research and evaluation, in developing the knowledge base necessary to send crews on long duration missions to Mars and other distant destinations. The NASA Exploration Systems Directorate (ExSD), in its program of bioastronautics research, manages the development of technologies that maintain human life, health, and performance in space. Using a systems engineering process and risk management methods, ExSD s Human Support Systems (HSS) Program selects and performs research and technology development in several critical areas and transfers the results of its efforts to NASA exploration mission/systems development programs in the form of developed technologies and new knowledge about the capabilities and constraints of systems required to support human existence beyond Low Earth Orbit. HSS efforts include the areas of advanced environmental monitoring and control, extravehicular activity, food technologies, life support systems, space human factors engineering, and systems integration of all these elements. The HSS Program provides a structured set of deliverable products to meet the needs of exploration programs. these products reduce the gaps that exist in our knowledge of and capabilities for human support for long duration, remote space missions. They also reduce the performance gap between the efficiency of current space systems and the greater efficiency that must be achieved to make human planetary exploration missions economically and logistically feasible. In conducting this research and technology development program, it is necessary for HSS technologists and program managers to develop a common currency for decision making and the allocation of funding. A high level assessment is made of both the knowledge gaps and the system performance gaps across the program s technical project portfolio. This allows decision making that assures proper emphasis areas and provides a key measure of annual technological progress, as exploration mission plans continue to mature.

Berdich, Debra P.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Developing Advanced Human Support Technologies for Planetary Exploration Missions

The United States Vision for Space Exploration calls for sending robots and humans to explore the Earth's moon, the planet Mars, and beyond. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is developing a set of design reference missions that will provide further detail to these plans. Lunar missions are expected to provide a stepping stone, through operational research and evaluation, in developing the knowledge base necessary to send crews on long duration missions to Mars and other distant destinations. The NASA Exploration Systems Directorate (ExSD), in its program of bioastronautics research, manages the development of technologies that maintain human life, health, and performance in space. Using a system engineering process and risk management methods, ExSD's Human Support Systems (HSS) Program selects and performs research and technology development in several critical areas and transfers the results of its efforts to NASA exploration mission/systems development programs in the form of developed technologies and new knowledge about the capabilities and constraints of systems required to support human existence beyond Low Earth Orbit. HSS efforts include the areas of advanced environmental monitoring and control, extravehicular activity, food technologies, life support systems, space human factors engineering, and systems integration of all these elements. The HSS Program provides a structured set of deliverable products to meet the needs of exploration programs. These products reduce the gaps that exist in our knowledge of and capabilities for human support for long duration, remote space missions. They also reduce the performance gap between the efficiency of current space systems and the greater efficiency that must be achieved to make human planetary exploration missions economically and logistically feasible. In conducting this research and technology development program, it is necessary for HSS technologists and program managers to develop a common currency for decision making and the allocation of funding. A high level assessment is made of both the knowledge gaps and the system performance gaps across the program s technical project portfolio. This allows decision making that assures proper emphasis areas and provides a key measure of annual technological progress, as exploration mission plans continue to mature.

Berdich, Debra P.↗
NASA NTRS2011

The First Intervention Study in Elder Self-Neglect: A Randomized Clinical Trial to Improve Vitamin D Levels

Despite high mortality rates, elder self-neglect is characterized by refusal of medical and social interventions. To date there have been no tested clinical interventions in elders who self-neglect. Previous research from the TEAM Institute has shown significantly low vitamin D levels in this population. This study aimed to determine the feasibility of a clinical intervention. Replacement of vitamin D was chosen because of its ease of administration and favorable safety profile. Methods: A randomized clinical trial using directly observed therapy of vitamin D was conducted using 50 elders, >65 years of age, with Adult Protective Services (APS) validated self-neglect. A staggered intervention with waiting controls was used to maximize statistical power. One-third (n=17) of the group was administered 50,000 IU vitamin D2 (ergocalciferol) monthly and the remainder (n=33) were administered 400 IU monthly. Serum 25-OH vitamin D was assessed at baseline and 5-months. Results: 69% agreed to participate in the study and of those n=40 (80%) remained at 5-months. At baseline, 12% (n=7) were deficient in vitamin D (<30nmol/L) and approximately 38% (n=22) had inadequate vitamin D levels (<50nmol/L). The baseline 25-OH vitamin D level was 59 nmol/L +25 (mean SD), and increased significantly to 72nmol/L +21 nmol/L at 5-months. Conclusion: These data are the first to provide evidence that clinical interventions are feasible in elders who self-neglect. The increase in vitamin D levels confirmed that the study personnel were able to successfully intervene community-dwelling elders with self-neglect. This study sets the precedent for future intervention and prevention studies

Burnett, Jason↗
NASA NTRS2016

First Search for an X-Ray-Optical Reverberation Signal in an Ultraluminous X-Ray Source

Using simultaneous optical (VLT/FORS2) and X-ray (XMM-Newton) data of NGC 5408, we present the first ever attempt to search for a reverberation signal in an ultraluminous X-ray source (NGC 5408 X-1). The idea is similar to active galactic nucleus broad line reverberation mapping where a lag measurement between the X-ray and the optical flux combined with a Keplerian velocity estimate should enable us to weigh the central compact object. We find that although NGC 5408 X-1ʼs X-rays are variable on a timescale of a few hundred seconds (rms of 9.0 +/- 0.5%), the optical emission does not show any statistically significant variations. We set a 3σ upper limit on the rms optical variability of 3.3%. The ratio of the X-ray to the optical variability is an indicator of X-ray reprocessing efficiency. In X-ray binaries, this ratio is roughly 5. Assuming a similar ratio for NGC 5408 X-1, the expected rms optical variability is approximately equal to 2%, which is still a factor of roughly two lower than what was possible with the VLT observations in this study. We find marginal evidence (3 sigma) for optical variability on an approximately 24 hr timescale. Our results demonstrate that such measurements can be made, but photometric conditions, low sky background levels, and longer simultaneous observations will be required to reach optical variability levels similar to those of X-ray binaries.

: accretion↗
NASA NTRS2021

Exploring uncertainties in global crop yield projections in a large ensemble of crop models and CMIP5 and CMIP6 climate scenarios

Concerns over climate change are motivated in large part because of their impact on human society. Assessing the effect of that uncertainty on specific potential impacts is demanding, since it requires a systematic survey over both climate and impacts models. We provide a comprehensive evaluation of uncertainty in projected crop yields for maize, spring and winter wheat, rice, and soybean, using a suite of nine crop models and up to 45 CMIP5 and 34 CMIP6 climate projections for three different forcing scenarios. To make this task computationally tractable, we use a new set of statistical crop model emulators. We find that climate and crop models contribute about equally to overall uncertainty. While the ranges of yield uncertainties under CMIP5 and CMIP6 projections are similar, median impact in aggregate total caloric production is typically more negative for the CMIP6 projections (+1% to −19%) than for CMIP5 (+5% to −13%). In the first half of the 21st century and for individual crops is the spread across crop models typically wider than that across climate models, but we find distinct differences between crops: globally, wheat and maize uncertainties are dominated by the crop models, but soybean and rice are more sensitive to the climate projections. Climate models with very similar global mean warming can lead to very different aggregate impacts so that climate model uncertainties remain a significant contributor to agricultural impacts uncertainty. These results show the utility of large-ensemble methods that allow comprehensively evaluating factors affecting crop yields or other impacts under climate change. The crop model ensemble used here is unbalanced and pulls the assumption that all projections are equally plausible into question. Better methods for consistent model testing, also at the level of individual processes, will have to be developed and applied by the crop modeling community.

crop yield projections↗
NASA NTRS2019

initMIP-Antarctica: an Ice Sheet Model Initialization Experiment of ISMIP6

Ice sheet numerical modeling is an important tool to estimate the dynamic contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to sea level rise over the coming centuries. The influence of initial conditions on ice sheet model simulations, however, is still unclear. To better understand this influence, an initial state intercomparison exercise (initMIP) has been developed to compare, evaluate, and improve initialization procedures and estimate their impact on century-scale simulations. initMIP is the first set of experiments of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6), which is the primary Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) activity focusing on the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Following initMIP-Greenland, initMIP-Antarctica has been designed to explore uncertainties associated with model initialization and spin-up and to evaluate the impact of changes in external forcings. Starting from the state of the Antarctic ice sheet at the end of the initialization procedure, three forward experiments are each run for 100 years: a control run, a run with a surface mass balance anomaly, and a run with a basal melting anomaly beneath floating ice. This study presents the results of initMIP-Antarctica from 25 simulations performed by 16 international modeling groups. The submitted results use different initial conditions and initialization methods, as well as ice flow model parameters and reference external forcings. We find a good agreement among model responses to the surface mass balance anomaly but large variations in responses to the basal melting anomaly. These variations can be attributed to differences in the extent of ice shelves and their upstream tributaries, the numerical treatment of grounding line, and the initial ocean conditions applied, suggesting that ongoing efforts to better represent ice shelves in continental-scale models should continue.

ice sheet model↗