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At least 829 records · Page 46

Uncertainty Analysis for a Criticality Benchmark [Slides]

This presentation discusses how KRUSTY was analyzed with LANL’s MCNP neutron transport code, Monte Carlo N-Particle. In the Monte Carlo method, neutrons are born in fission events and fly around the geometry having events (e.g., scatter, capture, fission, escape) according to the natural probabilities. “Natural probabilities” are given as neutron cross sections , which are measured and evaluated nuclear data. One of the goals of the benchmark project is to improve the nuclear cross sections (and the codes that use them). In this work, the response of interest is called k eff , which describes the neutron multiplication in a near critical system. Like most quantities, k eff is not measured directly; it is only inferred. In summation, MCNP results for k eff matched the measurements extremely well. The evaluated uncertainties are asymmetric and smaller than 0.00100 (e.g., + 0.00080 / – 0.00062). The largest uncertainties are due to alignment.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Bayesian Optimization Framework for Imperfect Data or Models

Conventional Bayesian optimization methods implicitly assume that the data and model being optimized are “perfect.” This assumption leads to inaccurate posterior probability distribution functions (PDFs) when applied to “imperfect” data or models. The new Bayesian optimization framework presented in this report provides a way to parameterize the effect of imperfections usually encountered in a prior PDF of generalized data or a model on the posterior PDF. The effects of imperfections are parameterized by a set of constraints imposed on the posterior expectation values of deviations between the data and the model and on their covariance matrix elements. A particular set of values for these constraints conveys an evaluator’s best estimate of the effect of imperfections on the corresponding posterior expectation values. When a prior PDF of generalized data is assumed to be normal, an expression for a posterior PDF satisfying an arbitrary set of constraints is derived analytically for linear models. An analogous iterative algorithm is given for nonlinear models. The corresponding posterior PDF should be used to estimate any posterior expectation values in the presence of imperfections parameterized by that set of constraints. A posterior PDF of a conventional Bayesian optimization method is recovered analytically when all evaluator-specified constraints are set to zero (i.e., in the absence of any imperfections). The analytical expressions derived in this report for normal PDFs and linear models were verified numerically by a Metropolis–Hastings Monte Carlo method. The methods presented herein could be applied to any kind of data or models, including differential cross-section data or integral benchmark experiments.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

IER 557: Godiva IV Reproducibility/Characterization [Slides]

The primary goal of the IER 557 Godiva IV reproducibility/characterization process is to determine reproducibility for 70°C bursts. The secondary goal is to characterize the radiation field, including absolute calibration with radchem counting of fission foils.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

IER 488: MUSiC Accomplishments and Goals [Slides]

IER-488: Measurement of Uranium Subcritical and Critical (MUSiC) consists of measurements of bare, HEU systems covering a large range of reactivities. Multiple detector systems and analysis methods are being used to obtain detector-independent results. Massive amounts of data and information available. Substantial analysis has been completed for both critical and subcritical configurations. Work in progress is largely novel research and will result in several conference proceedings, journal publications, and a subcritical benchmark. There is still a large amount of data that has not been analyzed and much more to come from the analysis of the Measurements of Uranium Subcritical and Critical.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Neutron Multiplicity Counting Diagnosis of Uranium Assemblies Interrogated by Cf-252 [Poster]

Researchers concluded: First neutron multiplicity counting of tens of kilograms of 235 U with organic scintillators; leakage multiplication estimates to be improved by incorporating detector cross-talk; provides data comparison for “Multiplicity Theory Beyond the Point Model;" promotes continued use of organic scintillators for NCERC and elsewhere.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Deterministic and Monte Carlo Nuclear Data Adjustment Methods [Slides]

For the Bayesian Monte Carlo methodology, a need to understand convergence of the posterior moments as a function of the number of parameter realizations is required. In high-dimensional systems, it can be very costly to sample entire parameter space and perform functional evaluation for every realization. Bayesian Monte Carlo allows one to relax the GLLS approximations of model linearity and prior/posterior PDF shape. The Bayesian Stochastic Collocation Method is a deterministic approach to “sample” the parameter space. It allows one to relax the GLLS approximations of model linearity and posterior PDF shape. Higher-order posterior moments (i.e., skewness, kurtosis, etc.) can be studied through polynomial expansion. Tensor product quadrature scales poorly and can use sparse grid quadrature methods.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Analysis of a Bulk 237 Np Oxide Sample for Trace Actinides

A neptunium oxide sample was dissolved and trace actinide constituents were measured by isotope dilution ICP-MS (for 239–244 Pu, 233–238 U, 237 Np, 241–243 Am) and alpha spectrometry ( 238 Pu, 242 Cm, 244 Cm). This material contained significant quantities of transuranic elements, notably americium and curium. The isotopic composition of the material will continue to evolve over time due to radioactive decay; the measurements reported here include all isotopes decay corrected to a reference date of 1/1/2022. These factors may be considerations in criticality studies of the related 237 Np sphere.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

Nuclear Criticality Safety Program @ ORNL [Slides]

This presentation provides an overview of the Nuclear Criticality Safety Program (NCSP) and its activities at Oak Ridge National Lab, including the program's history, mission and vision, accomplishments, challenges, initiatives, and tasks, as well as information regarding ORNL's NCSP budget.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Overview of the NCSP Nuclear Data Program [Slides]

This presentation provides an overview of the Nuclear Criticality Safety Program (NCSP) Nuclear Data Program, including its history, mission, vision, activities, and budgetary information.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Brief Overview of the NCSP [Slides]

The mission of the NCSP is to provide sustainable expert leadership, direction, and the technical infrastructure necessary to develop, maintain, and disseminate the essential technical tools, training, and data required to support safe, efficient fissionable material operations within the Department of Energy. The vision of the NCSP is a continually improving, adaptable, and transparent program that communicates and collaborates globally to incorporate technology, practices, and programs to be responsive to the essential technical needs of those responsible for developing, implementing, and maintaining nuclear criticality safety.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Overview of the NCSP Nuclear Data Program [Slides]

The mission of the NCSP is to provide sustainable expert leadership, direction and the technical infrastructure necessary to develop, maintain and disseminate the essential technical tools, training and data required to support safe, efficient fissionable material operations within the Department of Energy. The vision of the NCSP is to create a continually improving, adaptable and transparent program that communicates and collaborates globally to incorporate technology, practices and programs to be responsive to the essential technical needs of those responsible for developing, implementing and maintaining nuclear criticality safety.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Validation of Nuclear Data Sensitivity Calculations by the MCNP PERT Card [Poster]

This work validates a method of estimating sensitivities that utilized the MCNP PERT card and tallies. The agreement of the PERT card and Brute Force results proves the validity of calculating nuclear data sensitivities by use of the MCNP PERT card, especially at higher energies. The overall agreement will be easier to understand once an uncertainty analysis is completed.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Flattop Benchmark CED-2 (IER-423)

The final design for the Flattop HEU Core Benchmark is presented in this report. Physical measurements will be performed on Flattop components using modern instruments and techniques to define uncertainties necessary to meet contemporary ICSBEP standards. A preliminary re-evaluation of ICSBEP HMF-0028 (Flattop HEU Core) led to the development of IER-423 CED-1, wherein total relative uncertainties in $k_{eff}$ were provided based on a new detailed model. The estimated uncertainty on the total uncertainty is +100%/-0%, given a lack of documented uncertainties on mass, dimensions, and densities of predominantly the natural uranium (NU) and highly enriched uranium (HEU) components.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗