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At least 829 records · Page 46

Estimation and Bias Correction of Aerosol Abundance using Data-driven Machine Learning and Remote Sensing

Air quality information is increasingly becoming a public health concern, since some of the aerosol particles pose harmful effects to peoples health. One widely available metric of aerosol abundance is the aerosol optical depth (AOD). The AOD is the integrated light extinction coefficient over a vertical atmospheric column of unit cross section, which represents the extent to which the aerosols in that vertical profile prevent the transmission of light by absorption or scattering. The comparison between the AOD measured from the ground-based Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) system and the satellite MODIS instruments at 550 nm shows that there is a bias between the two data products. We performed a comprehensive analysis exploring possible factors which may be contributing to the inter-instrumental bias between MODIS and AERONET. The analysis used several measured variables, including the MODIS AOD, as input in order to train a neural network in regression mode to predict the AERONET AOD values. This not only allowed us to obtain an estimate, but also allowed us to infer the optimal sets of variables that played an important role in the prediction. In addition, we applied machine learning to infer the global abundance of ground level PM2.5 from the AOD data and other ancillary satellite and meteorology products. This research is part of our goal to provide air quality information, which can also be useful for global epidemiology studies.

Malakar, Nabin K.↗

Effects of the Orion Launch Abort Vehicle Plumes on Aerodynamics and Controllability

Characterization of the launch abort system of the Multi-purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV) for control design and accurate simulation has provided a significant challenge to aerodynamicists and design engineers. The design space of the launch abort vehicle (LAV) includes operational altitudes from ground level to approximately 300,000 feet, Mach numbers from 0-9, and peak dynamic pressure near 1300psf during transonic flight. Further complicating the characterization of the aerodynamics and the resultant vehicle controllability is the interaction of the vehicle flowfield with the plumes of the two solid propellant motors that provide attitude control and the main propulsive impulse for the LAV. These interactions are a function of flight parameters such as Mach number, altitude, dynamic pressure, vehicle attitude, as well as parameters relating to the operation of the motors themselves - either as a function of time for the AM, or as a result of the flight control system requests for control torque from the ACM. This paper discusses the computational aerodynamic modeling of the aerodynamic interaction caused by main abort motor and the attitude control motor of the MPCV LAV, showing the effects of these interactions on vehicle controllability.

Vicker, Darby↗

Atmospheric Turbulence Estimates from a Pulsed Lidar

Estimates of the eddy dissipation rate (EDR) were obtained from measurements made by a coherent pulsed lidar and compared with estimates from mesoscale model simulations and measurements from an in situ sonic anemometer at the Denver International Airport and with EDR estimates from the last observation time of the trailing vortex pair. The estimates of EDR from the lidar were obtained using two different methodologies. The two methodologies show consistent estimates of the vertical profiles. Comparison of EDR derived from the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) mesoscale model with the in situ lidar estimates show good agreement during the daytime convective boundary layer, but the WRF simulations tend to overestimate EDR during the nighttime. The EDR estimates from a sonic anemometer located at 7.3 meters above ground level are approximately one order of magnitude greater than both the WRF and lidar estimates - which are from greater heights - during the daytime convective boundary layer and substantially greater during the nighttime stable boundary layer. The consistency of the EDR estimates from different methods suggests a reasonable ability to predict the temporal evolution of a spatially averaged vertical profile of EDR in an airport terminal area using a mesoscale model during the daytime convective boundary layer. In the stable nighttime boundary layer, there may be added value to EDR estimates provided by in situ lidar measurements.

Pruis, Matthew J.↗

No Need to Wait for the Clean Air Dividend

Controlling smog and soot is the classic win-win situation, so it's great that the world is finally waking up to the idea. WHAT if there was a way to simultaneously slow down climate change, save millions of lives, improve crop yields and contribute to sustainable development and energy security? It sounds too good to be true, but it is possible. It won't be free or easy, but with some effort and moderate investment, it can be done. The way to do it is to reduce emissions leading to two types of pollution: black carbon and ozone. These are the only pollutants that we know contribute to both global warming and poor air quality. Black carbon is essentially soot, emitted from incomplete combustion of fossil fuels and biomass. It warms the climate in two ways: by absorbing heat in the atmosphere - similar to the greenhouse effect - and by reducing Earth's albedo, or ability to reflect sunlight. Inhaled into the lungs, it leads to cancer and cardiovascular disease. Ozone in the atmosphere also acts as a greenhouse gas, while ground-level ozone is toxic to humans and plants, so leads to both premature death and reduced crop yields. Ozone is not emitted directly but is produced by the action of sunlight on other pollutants, which are known as ozone precursors. Since black carbon and ozone are important components of soot and smog, a great deal of effort has already been put into developing methods to reduce emissions. So effective technology is available, but needs wider implementation. The recommended control measures for black carbon include widespread and tight emission standards on diesel cars and trucks; improved solid fuel cooking stoves, brick kilns and coke ovens in the developing world; and a ban on the open burning of agricultural waste. Implementation of these measures would have a rapid impact on the climate and human health, and also have the added benefit of greatly reducing emissions of carbon monoxide, an important ozone precursor. A second key ozone precursor is methane, which is also a powerful greenhouse gas in its own right. Control measures include reducing leaks from natural gas pipelines and storage tanks, and capturing it from coal, gas and oil extraction, landfills and wastewater treatment plants. Aeration of rice paddies and manure management can also reduce methane releases. Captured methane can often be sold or turned into power. In Monterrey, Mexico, for example, electricity generated from methane collected from the city landfill powers the public transportation system. So such measures can be beneficial even when ignoring the health and climate effects, as they can contribute to energy security and often pay for themselves. According to calculations by me and my colleagues, phasing in all these measures over the next 20 years would reduce global warming by about 0.5 degC in 2050, half of the projected increase between now and then (Science, vol 335, p 183). Regional benefits would be even greater, as black carbon disrupts rainfall patterns and magnifies warming and melting of snow and ice in parts of the world including the Arctic and the Himalayas. On top of the climate benefits, cutting black carbon and ozone would prevent over 3 million premature deaths from air pollution, and increase yields of staple crops by roughly 50 million tonnes a year. Improved cooking stoves would also decrease the demand for firewood in the developing world, reducing deforestation and freeing up time for those who collect wood - primarily women and children - to pursue other activities such as education. Similarly, improved brick kilns now being used in parts of Latin America and Asia require half as much fuel as traditional ones and are less time-intensive for the operators. This means that in addition to their environmental benefits, these measures can contribute to sustainable and human development. Tackling black carbon and methane is clearly a great idea, so why hasn't it been done already? There are many barriers. The upfront costs of some measures can be prohibitive even when they eventually pay for themselves. But this can be overcome by mechanisms such as international financing of capital costs. For other measures, the costs are typically borne by a few while the benefits accrue to everybody. In such cases civil society and governments must get involved. Governments are starting to act. In February, the US, Canada, Sweden, Bangladesh, Ghana and Mexico launched the Climate and Clean Air Coalition to support implementation of measures like these. This coalition will hopefully expand and achieve rapid, widespread adoption of measures to cut black carbon and ozone. While the climate benefits will be substantial, it is important to note that these measures cannot substitute for cuts in carbon dioxide. Black carbon, ozone, carbon monoxide and methane stay in the atmosphere for a fairly short time - a few days for black carbon and about a decade for methane. They thus respond quickly to emissions changes and give us substantial leverage over near-term climate change. In contrast, carbon dioxide is very long-lived and so responds slowly to emissions changes. This means that cuts have little immediate impact, but it also means they must be made now to avoid disastrous changes later on. Controlling short-lived climate pollutants is thus an issue of fairness. Much as failure to reduce carbon dioxide emissions soon would condemn future generations to disastrous change, failure to reduce near-term climate change condemns those alive today to suffer worsening effects of the sort already seen. Some wonder if we really can do both. We can, and we must.

Shindell, Drew↗

The Multi-Stage History of Mt. Sharp

The Curiosity rover is exploring Gale crater and Mt. Sharp, Gale's 5‐km high central mound. We are investigating the history of alteration and erosion of Mt. Sharp using orbital imagery, spectroscopy and rover observations. Our results suggest a significant time gap between emplacement of the upper and lower sections of the mound. Crater counts show that the lower mound was formed soon after Gale itself, and that it contains distinct units ranging in altitude from approximately ‐4,500 to ‐1,800 m. Spectral data suggest that many units contain phyllosilicates. We found that these clay‐bearing rocks occur in distinct layers concentrated below ‐2,900 m. Parts of the lower mound exhibit a transition from clays to sulfates with increasing altitude. The lower mound shows evidence of flowing water, including canyons and inverted channels. Wind erosion produced km‐scale yardangs and scalloped cliffs. Our mapping shows that many yardangs in the lower mound are clay‐bearing, with a predominant orientation of around N‐S. Curiosity's ground‐level images show myriad fine‐scale, mainly horizontal layers in the lower mound. The rover has found stream beds and conglomerates, indicating that water once flowed on the crater floor. Drilling near the deepest point in Gale produced abundant clay, providing additional evidence of aqueous alteration. Upper mound units range in altitude from ‐2,100 m to +500 m, and mantle the lower mound above an angular unconformity. Most upper mound units are composed of layers. The formation age of the upper mound is unknown, since few craters are preserved. Clay‐bearing layers are detectable in several locations, mainly at altitudes near ‐2,000 m. There is no evidence of water flow, but wind erosion has scalloped the surfaces and edges of layers, and fine‐scale yardangs are common. Correlations between yardangs and clay spectra are apparent only in the lowermost units of the upper mound. Yardang orientations vary, and include N‐S, NW‐SE, and NE‐SW. Upper mound units resemble the planet‐wide Medusae Fossae formation, dated as Hesperian and argued to be composed of ignimbrites. Medusae Fossae layers are easily eroded by wind, and our mapping demonstrates their resemblance to upper mound fine‐scale yardangs. The history of Mt. Sharp started with deposition and lithification of sediments shortly after crater formation. Some lower mound layers were partially altered to clays and sulfates, and water formed streams and canyons. Wind erosion of the lower mound produced large‐scale yardangs, particularly in clay‐rich layers, oriented generally N‐S. Upper mound units were emplaced following a considerable period of wind erosion. The absence of water flow on the upper mound suggests that these units were emplaced after atmospheric loss rendered water unstable at the surface. The shift in dominant wind direction, as indicated by yardang orientations, also argues for a time gap between erosion of the lower and upper mound. These observations are consistent with upper mound units being related to the Hesperian Medusae Fossae formation. During 2014 Curiosity is expected to reach the foot of Mt. Sharp and ascend through the clay‐rich layers, into the sulfate‐rich layers, and possibly past the interface with the upper mound. This will be a unique opportunity to field check geologic models on the surface of Mars.

Allen, C.↗

Towards Probablistic Assessment of Hypobaric Decompression Sickness Treatment

INTRODUCTION: Pressure, oxygen (O2), and time are the pillars to effective treatment of decompression sickness (DCS). The NASA DCS Treatment Model links a decrease in computed bubble volume to the resolution of a symptom. The decrease in volume is realized in two stages: a) during the Boyle's Law compression and b) during subsequent dissolution of the gas phase by the O2 window. METHODS: The cumulative distribution of 154 symptoms that resolved during repressurization was described with a log-logistic density function of pressure difference (deltaP as psid) associated with symptom resolution and two other explanatory variables. The 154 symptoms originated from 119 cases of DCS during 969 exposures in 47 different altitude tests. RESULTS: The probability of symptom resolution [P(symptom resolution)] = 1 / (1+exp(- (ln(deltaP) - 1.682 + 1.089×AMB - 0.00395×SYMPTOM TIME) / 0.633)), where AMB is 1 when the subject ambulated as part of the altitude exposure or else 0 and SYMPTOM TIME is the elapsed time in min from start of the altitude exposure to recognition of a DCS symptom. The P(symptom resolution) was estimated from computed deltaP from the Tissue Bubble Dynamics Model based on the "effective" Boyle's Law change: P2 - P1 (deltaP, psid) = P1×V1/V2 - P1, where V1 is the computed volume of a spherical bubble in a unit volume of tissue at low pressure P1 and V2 is computed volume after a change to a higher pressure P2. V2 continues to decrease through time at P2, at a faster rate if 100% ground level O2 was breathed. The computed deltaP is the effective treatment pressure at any point in time as if the entire deltaP was just from Boyle's Law compression. DISCUSSION: Given the low probability of DCS during extravehicular activity and the prompt treatment of a symptom with options through the model it is likely that the symptom and gas phase will resolve with minimum resources and minimal impact on astronaut health, safety, and productivity.

Conkin, J.↗

Influence of Dust Loading on Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation on Mars

Measuring the radiation environment at the surface of Mars is the primary goal of the Radiation Assessment Detector on the NASA Mars Science Laboratory's Curiosity rover. One of the conditions that Curiosity will likely encounter is a dust storm. The objective of this paper is to compute the cosmic ray ionization in different conditions, including dust storms, as these various conditions are likely to be encountered by Curiosity at some point. In the present work, the Nowcast of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation for Aviation Safety model, recently modified for Mars, was used along with the Badhwar & O'Neill 2010 galactic cosmic ray model. In addition to galactic cosmic rays, five different solar energetic particle event spectra were considered. For all input radiation environments, radiation dose throughout the atmosphere and at the surface was investigated as a function of atmospheric dust loading. It is demonstrated that for galactic cosmic rays, the ionization depends strongly on the atmosphere profile. Moreover, it is shown that solar energetic particle events strongly increase the ionization throughout the atmosphere, including ground level, and can account for the radio blackout conditions observed by the Mars Advanced Radar for Subsurface and Ionospheric Sounding instrument on the Mars Express spacecraft. These results demonstrate that the cosmic rays' influence on the Martian surface chemistry is strongly dependent on solar and atmospheric conditions that should be taken into account for future studies.

Norman, Ryan B.↗

Origin, Transport, and Vertical Distribution of Atmospheric Polluntants over the Northern Sourth China Sea During the 7-SEAS-Dongsha Experiment

During the spring of 2010, comprehensive in situ measurements were made for the first time on a small atoll (Dongsha Island) in the northern South China Sea (SCS), a key region of the 7-SEAS (the Seven South East Asian Studies) program. This paper focuses on characterizing the source origins, transport processes, and vertical distributions of the Asian continental outflows over the region, using measurements including mass concentration, optical properties, hygroscopicity, and vertical distribution of the aerosol particles, as well as the trace gas composition. Cluster analysis of backward trajectories classified 52% of the air masses arriving at ground level of Dongsha Island as having a continental origin, mainly from northern China to the northern SCS, passing the coastal area and being confined in the marine boundary layer (0-0.5 km). Compared to aerosols of oceanic origin, the fine mode continental aerosols have a higher concentration, extinction coefficient, and single-scattering albedo at 550 nm (i.e., 19 vs. 14 microg per cubic meter in PM(sub 2.5); 77 vs. 59 M per meter in beta(sub e); and 0.94 vs. 0.90 in omega, respectively). These aerosols have a higher hygroscopicity (f at 85% RH = 2.1) than those in the upwind inland regions, suggesting that the aerosols transported to the northern SCS were modified by the marine environment. In addition to the near-surface aerosol transport, a significant upper-layer (3-4 km) transport of biomass-burning aerosols was observed. Our results suggest that emissions from both China and Southeast Asia could have a significant impact on the aerosol loading and other aerosol properties over the SCS. Furthermore, the complex vertical distribution of aerosols-coinciding-with-clouds has implications for remote-sensing observations and aerosol-cloud-radiation interactions.

pollutants↗

Uncertainty Quantification and Certification Prediction of Low-Boom Supersonic Aircraft Configurations

The primary objective of this work was to develop and demonstrate a process for accurate and efficient uncertainty quantification and certification prediction of low-boom, supersonic, transport aircraft. High-fidelity computational fluid dynamics models of multiple low-boom configurations were investigated including the Lockheed Martin SEEB-ALR body of revolution, the NASA 69 Delta Wing, and the Lockheed Martin 1021-01 configuration. A nonintrusive polynomial chaos surrogate modeling approach was used for reduced computational cost of propagating mixed, inherent (aleatory) and model-form (epistemic) uncertainty from both the computation fluid dynamics model and the near-field to ground level propagation model. A methodology has also been introduced to quantify the plausibility of a design to pass a certification under uncertainty. Results of this study include the analysis of each of the three configurations of interest under inviscid and fully turbulent flow assumptions. A comparison of the uncertainty outputs and sensitivity analyses between the configurations is also given. The results of this study illustrate the flexibility and robustness of the developed framework as a tool for uncertainty quantification and certification prediction of low-boom, supersonic aircraft.

West, Thomas K., IV↗

Probabilistic Assessment of Hypobaric Decompression Sickness Treatment Success

The Hypobaric Decompression Sickness (DCS) Treatment Model links a decrease in computed bubble volume from increased pressure (DeltaP), increased oxygen (O2) partial pressure, and passage of time during treatment to the probability of symptom resolution [P(symptom resolution)]. The decrease in offending volume is realized in 2 stages: a) during compression via Boyle's Law and b) during subsequent dissolution of the gas phase via the O2 window. We established an empirical model for the P(symptom resolution) while accounting for multiple symptoms within subjects. The data consisted of 154 cases of hypobaric DCS symptoms along with ancillary information from tests on 56 men and 18 women. Our best estimated model is P(symptom resolution) = 1 / (1+exp(-(ln(Delta P) - 1.510 + 0.795×AMB - 0.00308×Ts) / 0.478)), where (DeltaP) is pressure difference (psid), AMB = 1 if ambulation took place during part of the altitude exposure, otherwise AMB = 0; and where Ts is the elapsed time in mins from start of the altitude exposure to recognition of a DCS symptom. To apply this model in future scenarios, values of DeltaP as inputs to the model would be calculated from the Tissue Bubble Dynamics Model based on the effective treatment pressure: (DeltaP) = P2 - P1 | = P1×V1/V2 - P1, where V1 is the computed volume of a spherical bubble in a unit volume of tissue at low pressure P1 and V2 is computed volume after a change to a higher pressure P2. If 100% ground level O2 (GLO) was breathed in place of air, then V2 continues to decrease through time at P2 at a faster rate. This calculated value of (DeltaP then represents the effective treatment pressure at any point in time. Simulation of a "pain-only" symptom at 203 min into an ambulatory extravehicular activity (EVA) at 4.3 psia on Mars resulted in a P(symptom resolution) of 0.49 (0.36 to 0.62 95% confidence intervals) on immediate return to 8.2 psia in the Multi-Mission Space Exploration Vehicle. The P(symptom resolution) increased to near certainty (0.99) after 2 hrs of GLO at 8.2 psia or with less certainty on immediate pressurization to 14.7 psia [0.90 (0.83 - 0.95)]. Given the low probability of DCS during EVA and the prompt treatment of a symptom with guidance from the model, it is likely that the symptom and gas phase will resolve with minimum resources and minimal impact on astronaut health, safety, and productivity.

Conkin, Johnny↗

Photoacoustic Optical Properties at UV, VIS, and near IR Wavelengths for Laboratory Generated and Winter Time Ambient Urban Aerosols

We present the laboratory and ambient photoacoustic (PA) measurement of aerosol light absorption coefficients at ultraviolet wavelength (i.e., 355 nm) and compare with measurements at 405, 532, 870, and 1047 nm. Simultaneous measurements of aerosol light scattering coefficients were achieved by the integrating reciprocal nephelometer within the PA's acoustic resonator. Absorption and scattering measurements were carried out for various laboratory generated aerosols, including salt, incense, and kerosene soot to evaluate the instrument calibration and gain insight on the spectral dependence of aerosol light absorption and scattering. Ambient measurements were obtained in Reno, Nevada, between 18 December 2009 and 18 January 2010. The measurement period included days with and without strong ground level temperature inversions, corresponding to highly polluted (freshly emitted aerosols) and relatively clean (aged aerosols) conditions. Particulate matter (PM) concentrations were measured and analyzed with other tracers of traffic emissions. The temperature inversion episodes caused very high concentration of PM (sub 2.5) and PM( sub 10) (particulate matter with aerodynamic diameters less than 2.5 micrometers and 10 micrometers, respectively) and gaseous pollutants: carbon monoxide (CO), nitric oxide (NO), and nitrogen dioxide (NO2). The diurnal change of absorption and scattering coefficients during the polluted (inversion) days increased approximately by a factor of two for all wavelengths compared to the clean days. The spectral variation in aerosol absorption coefficients indicated a significant amount of absorbing aerosol from traffic emissions and residential wood burning. The analysis of single scattering albedo (SSA), Angstrom exponent of absorption (AEA), and Angstrom exponent of scattering (AES) for clean and polluted days provides evidences that the aerosol aging and coating process is suppressed by strong temperature inversion under cloudy conditions. In general, measured UV absorption coefficients were found to be much larger for biomass burning aerosol than for typical ambient aerosols.

absorptivity↗

Analysis on H Spectral Shape During the Early 2012 SEPs with the PAMELA Experiment

The satellite-borne PAMELA experiment has been continuously collecting data since 2006.This apparatus is designed to study charged particles in the cosmic radiation. The combination of a permanent magnet, a silicon strip tracker and a silicon-tungsten imaging calorimeter, and the redundancy of instrumentation allow very precise studies on the physics of cosmic rays in a wide energy range and with high statistics. This makes PAMELA a very suitable instrument for Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) observations. Not only does its pan the energy range between the ground-based neutron monitor data and the observations of SEPs from space,but PAMELA also carries out the first direct measurements of the composition for the highest energy SEP events, including those causing Ground Level Enhancements (GLEs).In particular, PAMELA has registered many SEP events during solar cycle 24,offering unique opportunities to address the question of high-energy SEP origin. A preliminary analysis on proton spectra behaviour during this event is presented in this work.

Protons↗

Atmospheric Photochemistry

The upper atmosphere offers a vast photochemical laboratory free from solid surfaces, so all reactions take place in the gaseous phase. At 30 km altitude the pressure has fallen to about one-hundredth of that at ground level, and we shall, rather arbitrarily, regard the upper atmosphere as beginning at that height. By a little less than 100 km the pressure has fallen to 10(exp -3) mm Hg and is decreasing by a power of ten for every 15 km increase in altitude. Essentially we are concerned then with the photochemistry of a nitrogen-oxygen mixture under low-pressure conditions in which photo-ionization, as well as photodissociation, plays an important part. Account must also be taken of the presence of rare constituents, such as water vapour and its decomposition products, including particularly hydroxyl, oxides of carbon, methane and, strangely enough, sodium, lithium and calcium. Many curious and unfamiliar reactions occur in the upper atmosphere. Some of them are luminescent, causing the atmosphere to emit a dim light called the airglow. Others, between gaseous ions and neutral molecules, are almost a complete mystery at this time. Similar interesting phenomena must occur in other planetary atmospheres, and they might be predicted if sufficient chemical information were available.

Massey, Harrie↗

X-56A MUTT: Aeroservoelastic Modeling

For the NASA X-56a Program, Armstrong Flight Research Center has been developing a set of linear states space models that integrate the flight dynamics and structural dynamics. These high order models are needed for the control design, control evaluation, and test input design. The current focus has been on developing stiff wing models to validate the current modeling approach. The extension of the modeling approach to the flexible wings requires only a change in the structural model. Individual subsystems models (actuators, inertial properties, etc.) have been validated by component level ground tests. Closed loop simulation of maneuvers designed to validate the flight dynamics of these models correlates very well flight test data. The open loop structural dynamics are also shown to correlate well to the flight test data.

Modeling↗

High-Energy Solar Particle Events in Cycle 24

The Sun is already in the declining phase of cycle 24, but the paucity of high-energy solar energetic particle (SEP) events continues with only two ground level enhancement (GLE) events as of March 31, 2015. In an attempt to understand this, we considered all the large SEP events of cycle 24 that occurred until the end of 2014. We compared the properties of the associated CMEs with those in cycle 23. We found that the CME speeds in the sky plane were similar, but almost all those cycle-24 CMEs were halos. A significant fraction of (16%) of the frontside SEP events were associated with eruptive prominence events. CMEs associated with filament eruption events accelerate slowly and attain peak speeds beyond the typical GLE release heights. When we considered only western hemispheric events that had good connectivity to the CME nose, there were only 8 events that could be considered as GLE candidates. One turned out to be the first GLE event of cycle 24 (2012 May 17). In two events, the CMEs were very fast (>2000 km/s) but they were launched into a tenuous medium (high Alfven speed). In the remaining five events, the speeds were well below the typical GLE CME speed (~2000 km/s). Furthermore, the CMEs attained their peak speeds beyond the typical heights where GLE particles are released. We conclude that several factors contribute to the low rate of high-energy SEP events in cycle 24: (i) reduced efficiency of shock acceleration (weak heliospheric magnetic field), (ii) poor latitudinal and longitudinal connectivity), and (iii) variation in local ambient conditions (e.g., high Alfven speed).

Solar Cycle 24↗

Probability Estimates of Solar Proton Doses During Periods of Low Sunspot Number for Short Duration Missions

In an earlier paper presented at ICES in 2015, we investigated solar particle event (SPE) radiation exposures (absorbed dose) to small, thinly-shielded spacecraft during a period when the monthly smoothed sunspot number (SSN) was less than 30. Although such months are generally considered "solar-quiet", SPEs observed during these months even include Ground Level Events, the most energetic type of SPE. In this paper, we add to previous study those SPEs that occurred in 1973-2015 when the SSN was greater than 30 but less than 50. Based on the observable energy range of the solar protons, we classify the event as GLEs, sub-GLEs, and sub-sub-GLEs, all of which are potential contributors to the radiation hazard. We use the spectra of these events to construct a probabilistic model of the absorbed dose due to solar protons when SSN < 50 at various confidence levels for various depths of shielding and for various mission durations. We provide plots and tables of solar proton-induced absorbed dose as functions of confidence level, shielding thickness, and mission-duration that will be useful to system designers.

Atwell, William↗

Performing a Launch Depressurization Test on an Inflatable Space Habitat

In July, 2014 JPL's Environmental Test Laboratory successfully performed a launch depressurization test on an inflatable space habitat proposed to be installed on the International Space Station. The inflatable habitat is to be launched in the SpaceX Dragon Trunk. During the launch, the unpressurized Dragon Trunk will rapidly change from ground level atmospheric pressure to the vacuum of space. Since the inflatable habitat is tightly folded during launch with multiple layers of bladder, Kevlar fabric sections, and micro-meteoroid shielding, it was not possible to analyze or simulate how the residual air pockets would behave during the launch. If the inflatable habitat does not vent adequately and expands, it could rupture the payload bay of the launch vehicle. A launch depressurization test was chosen as the best way to qualify the inflatable habitat. When stowed, the inflatable habitat measured approximately 241 cm (95 inches) in diameter by 152 cm (60 inches) high and weighed close to 1361 kg (3,000 pounds). Two vacuum chambers connected by a large vacuum line were used to perform this test. The inflatable habitat was mounted in the smaller chamber, which was 396 cm (13 feet) in diameter and 1128 cm (37 feet) high. The larger chamber, which was 823 cm (27 feet) in diameter and 2,591 cm (85 feet) high, was rough pumped and used as a vacuum reservoir. A two stage axial type compressor and ten Stokes vacuum pumps were also used during the depressurization. Opening a butterfly valve on the vacuum line, at the smaller chamber, was manually controlled so that the smaller chamber's depressurization rate matched the launch pressure profile.

ETL↗

The Effect of Future Ambient Air Pollution on Human Premature Mortality to 2100 Using Output from the ACCMIP Model Ensemble

Ambient air pollution from ground-level ozone and fine particulate matter (PM(sub 2.5)) is associated with premature mortality. Future concentrations of these air pollutants will be driven by natural and anthropogenic emissions and by climate change. Using anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions projected in the four Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCPs), the ACCMIP ensemble of chemistry climate models simulated future concentrations of ozone and PM(sub 2.5) at selected decades between 2000 and 2100. We use output from the ACCMIP ensemble, together with projections of future population and baseline mortality rates, to quantify the human premature mortality impacts of future ambient air pollution. Future air-pollution-related premature mortality in 2030, 2050 and 2100 is estimated for each scenario and for each model using a health impact function based on changes in concentrations of ozone and PM(sub 2.5) relative to 2000 and projected future population and baseline mortality rates. Additionally, the global mortality burden of ozone and PM(sub 2.5) in 2000 and each future period is estimated relative to 1850 concentrations, using present-day and future population and baseline mortality rates. The change in future ozone concentrations relative to 2000 is associated with excess global premature mortality in some scenarios/periods, particularly in RCP8.5 in 2100 (316 thousand deaths per year), likely driven by the large increase in methane emissions and by the net effect of climate change projected in this scenario, but it leads to considerable avoided premature mortality for the three other RCPs. However, the global mortality burden of ozone markedly increases from 382000 (121000 to 728000) deaths per year in 2000 to between 1.09 and 2.36 million deaths per year in 2100, across RCPs, mostly due to the effect of increases in population and baseline mortality rates. PM(sub 2.5) concentrations decrease relative to 2000 in all scenarios, due to projected reductions in emissions, and are associated with avoided premature mortality, particularly in 2100: between 2.39 and 1.31 million deaths per year for the four RCPs. The global mortality burden of PM(sub 2.5) is estimated to decrease from 1.70 (1.30 to 2.10) million deaths per year in 2000 to between 0.95 and 1.55 million deaths per year in 2100 for the four RCPs due to the combined effect of decreases in PM(sub 2.5) concentrations and changes in population and baseline mortality rates. Trends in future air-pollution-related mortality vary regionally across scenarios, reflecting assumptions for economic growth and air pollution control specific to each RCP and region. Mortality estimates differ among chemistry climate models due to differences in simulated pollutant concentrations, which is the greatest contributor to overall mortality uncertainty for most cases assessed here, supporting the use of model ensembles to characterize uncertainty. Increases in exposed population and baseline mortality rates of respiratory diseases magnify the impact on premature mortality of changes in future air pollutant concentrations and explain why the future global mortality burden of air pollution can exceed the current burden, even where air pollutant concentrations decrease.

Silva, Raquel A.↗