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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2018

On the geometric dependence of the molecular dipole polarizability in water: A benchmark study of higher-order electron correlation, basis set incompleteness error, core electron effects, and zero-point vibrational contributions

In this work, we investigate how geometric changes influence the static dipole polarizability ($α$) of a water molecule by explicitly computing the corresponding dipole polarizability surface (DPS) across 3125 total (1625 symmetry-unique) geometries using linear response coupled cluster theory including single, double, and triple excitations (LR-CCSDT) and the doubly augmented triple-$ζ$ basis set (d-aug-cc-pVTZ). Analytical formulae based on power series expansions of this $ab initio$ surface are generated using linear least-squares analysis and provide highly accurate estimates of this quantity as a function of molecular geometry (i.e., bond and angle variations) in a computationally tractable manner. An additional database, which consists of 25 representative molecular geometries and incorporates a more thorough treatment of both basis sets and core electron effects, is provided as a current benchmark for this quantity and the corresponding leading-order $C_6$ dispersion coefficient. This database has been utilized to assess the importance of these effects as well as the relative accuracy that can be obtained using several quantum chemical methods and a library of density functional approximations. In addition to high-level electron correlation methods (like CCSD) and our analytical least-squares formulae, we find that the SCAN0, PBE0, MN15, and B97-2 hybrid functionals yield the most accurate descriptions of the molecular polarizability tensor in H 2 O. Using first-order perturbation theory, we compute the zero-point vibrational correction to $α$ at the CCSDT/d-aug-cc-pVTZ level and find that this correction contributes approximately 3% to the isotropic ($α$ iso ) and nearly 50% to the anisotropic ($α$ aniso ) polarizability values. In doing so, we find that $α$ iso = 9.8307 bohr 3 , which is in excellent agreement with the experimental value of 9.83 ± 0.02 bohr 3 provided by Russell and Spackman. The DPS reported herein provides a benchmark-quality quantum mechanical estimate of this fundamental quantity of interest and should find extensive use in the development (and assessment) of next-generation force fields and machine-learning based approaches for modeling water in complex condensed-phase environments.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Likelihood Methods for CMB Experiments

A great deal of experimental effort is currently being devoted to the precise measurements of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) sky in temperature and polarization. Satellites, balloon-borne, and ground-based experiments scrutinize the CMB sky at multiple scales, and therefore enable to investigate not only the evolution of the early Universe, but also its late-time physics with unprecedented accuracy. The pipeline leading from time ordered data as collected by the instrument to the final product is highly structured. Moreover, it has also to provide accurate estimates of statistical and systematic uncertainties connected to the specific experiment. In this paper, we review likelihood approaches targeted to the analysis of the CMB signal at different scales, and to the estimation of key cosmological parameters. We consider methods that analyze the data in the spatial (i.e., pixel-based) or harmonic domain. We highlight the most relevant aspects of each approach and compare their performance.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Simulating the dust content of galaxies: successes and failures

We present full-volume cosmological simulations, using the moving-mesh code AREPO to study the coevolution of dust and galaxies. We extend the dust model in AREPO to include thermal sputtering of grains and investigate the evolution of the dust mass function, the cosmic distribution of dust beyond the interstellar medium and the dependence of dust-to-stellar mass ratio on galactic properties. The simulated dust mass function is well described by a Schechter fit and lies closest to observations at z = 0. The radial scaling of projected dust surface density out to distances of 10 Mpc around galaxies with magnitudes 17 < i < 21 is similar to that seen in Sloan Digital Sky Survey data, albeit with a lower normalization. At z = 0, the predicted dust density of Ωdust ≈ 1.3 × 10 -6 lies in the range of Ωdust values seen in low-redshift observations. We find that the dust-to-stellar mass ratio anticorrelates with stellar mass for galaxies living along the star formation main sequence. Moreover, we estimate the 850 μm number density functions for simulated galaxies and analyse the relation between dust-to-stellar flux and mass ratios at z = 0. At high redshift, our model fails to produce enough dust-rich galaxies, and this tension is not alleviated by adopting a top-heavy initial mass function. We do not capture a decline in Ωdust from z = 2 to 0, which suggests that dust production mechanisms more strongly dependent on star formation may help to produce the observed number of dusty galaxies near the peak of cosmic star formation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2014

Cost and Performance Model for Redox Flow Batteries

A cost model was developed for all vanadium and iron-vanadium redox flow batteries. Electrochemical performance modeling was done to estimate stack performance at various power densities as a function of state of charge. This was supplemented with a shunt current model and a pumping loss model to estimate actual system efficiency. The operating parameters such as power density, flow rates and design parameters such as electrode aspect ratio, electrolyte flow channel dimensions were adjusted to maximize efficiency and minimize capital costs. Detailed cost estimates were obtained from various vendors to calculate cost estimates for present, realistic and optimistic scenarios. The main drivers for cost reduction for various chemistries were identified as a function of the energy to power ratio of the storage system. Levelized cost analysis further guided suitability of various chemistries for different applications.

efficiency↗
DOE OSTI2011

Clinical Outcomes of Intensity-Modulated Pelvic Radiation Therapy for Carcinoma of the Cervix

Purpose: To evaluate disease outcomes and toxicity in cervical cancer patients treated with pelvic intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT). Methods and Materials: We included all patients with Stage I-IVA cervical carcinoma treated with IMRT at three different institutions from 2000-2007. Patients treated with extended field or conventional techniques were excluded. Intensity-modulated radiation therapy plans were designed to deliver 45 Gy in 1.8-Gy daily fractions to the planning target volume while minimizing dose to the bowel, bladder, and rectum. Toxicity was graded according to the Radiation Therapy Oncology Group system. Overall survival and disease-free survival were estimated by use of the Kaplan-Meier method. Pelvic failure, distant failure, and late toxicity were estimated by use of cumulative incidence functions. Results: The study included 111 patients. Of these, 22 were treated with postoperative IMRT, 8 with IMRT followed by intracavitary brachytherapy and adjuvant hysterectomy, and 81 with IMRT followed by planned intracavitary brachytherapy. Of the patients, 63 had Stage I-IIA disease and 48 had Stage IIB-IVA disease. The median follow-up time was 27 months. The 3-year overall survival rate and the disease-free survival rate were 78% (95% confidence interval [CI], 68-88%) and 69% (95% CI, 59-81%), respectively. The 3-year pelvic failure rate and the distant failure rate were 14% (95% CI, 6-22%) and 17% (95% CI, 8-25%), respectively. Estimates of acute and late Grade 3 toxicity or higher were 2% (95% CI, 0-7%) and 7% (95% CI, 2-13%), respectively. Conclusions: Intensity-modulated radiation therapy is associated with low toxicity and favorable outcomes, supporting its safety and efficacy for cervical cancer. Prospective clinical trials are needed to evaluate the comparative efficacy of IMRT vs. conventional techniques.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2014

SU-E-J-49: Distal Edge Activity Fall Off Of Proton Therapy Beams

Purpose: To characterize and quantify the distal edge activity fall off, created in a phantom by a proton therapy beam Method and Materials: A 30x30x10cm polymethylmethacrylate phantom was irradiated with a proton therapy beam using different ranges and beams. The irradiation volume is approximated by a right circular cylinder of diameter 7.6cm and varying lengths. After irradiation, the phantom was scanned via a Philips Gemini Big Bore™ PET-CT for isotope activation. Varian Eclipse™ treatment planning system as well as ImageJ™ were used to analyze the resulting PET and CT scans. The region of activity within the phantom was longitudinally measured as a function of PET slice number. Dose estimations were made via Monte Carlo (GATE) simulation. Results: For both the spread out Bragg peak (SOBP) and the mono-energetic pristine Bragg peak proton beams, the proximal activation rise was steep: average slope −0.735 (average intensity/slice number) ± 0.091 (standard deviation) for the pristine beams and −1.149 ± 0.117 for the SOBP beams. In contrast, the distal fall offs were dissimilar. The distal fall off in activity for the pristine beams was fit well by a linear curve: R{sup 2} (Pierson Product) was 0.9968, 0.9955 and 0.9909 for the 13.5, 17.0 and 21.0cm range beams respectively. The good fit allows for a slope comparison between the different ranges. The slope varied as a function of range from 1.021 for the 13.5cm beam to 0.8407 (average intensity/slice number) for the 21.0cm beam. This dependence can be characterized: −0.0234(average intensity/slice number/cm range). For the SOBP beams, the slopes were significantly less and were also less linear: average slope 0.2628 ± 0.0474, average R{sup 2}=0.9236. Conclusion: The distal activation fall off edge for pristine proton beams was linear and steep. The corresponding quantities for SOBP beams were shallower and less linear. Philips has provided support for this work.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

A procedure for the estimation of the numerical uncertainty of CFD calculations based on grid refinement studies

This paper offers a procedure for the estimation of the numerical uncertainty of any integral or local flow quantity as a result of a fluid flow computation; the procedure requires solutions on systematically refined grids. The error is estimated with power series expansions as a function of the typical cell size. These expansions, of which four types are used, are fitted to the data in the least-squares sense. The selection of the best error estimate is based on the standard deviation of the fits. The error estimate is converted into an uncertainty with a safety factor that depends on the observed order of grid convergence and on the standard deviation of the fit. For well-behaved data sets, i.e. monotonic convergence with the expected observed order of grid convergence and no scatter in the data, the method reduces to the well known Grid Convergence Index. Examples of application of the procedure are included. - Highlights: • Estimation of the numerical uncertainty of any integral or local flow quantity. • Least squares fits to power series expansions to handle noisy data. • Excellent results obtained for manufactured solutions. • Consistent results obtained for practical CFD calculations. • Reduces to the well known Grid Convergence Index for well-behaved data sets.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2018

The use of atmospheric prediction models to invert infrasound for linear-equivalent time domain moment tensors: Source Physics Experiment, Phase 1

We invert far field infrasound data for the equivalent seismo-acoustic time domain moment tensor to assess the effects of variable atmospheric models as well as to quantify the relative contributions of two presumed source phenomena. The infrasound data was produced by a series of underground chemical explosions that were conducted during the Source Physics Experiment, (SPE) which was originally designed to study explosion-generated seismo-acoustic signal phenomena. The goal of the work presented herein is two-fold: the first goal is to investigate the sensitivity of the estimated time domain moment tensors to variability of the estimated atmospheric model. The second goal is to determine the relative contribution of two possible source mechanisms to the observed infrasonic wave field. Rather than using actual atmospheric observations to estimate the necessary atmospheric Green's functions, we build a series of atmospheric models that rely on publicly available, regional atmospheric observations and the assumption that the acoustic energy results from a linear combination of an underground isotropic explosion and surface spall. The atmospheric observations are summarized and interpolated onto a 3D grid to produce a model of sound speed at the time of the experiment. For each of four SPE acoustic datasets that we invert, we produced a suite of three atmospheric models, based on ten years of regional meteorological observations: an average model, which averages the atmospheric conditions for ten years prior to each SPE event, as well as two extrema models. We find that the inversion yields relatively repeatable results for the estimated spall source. Conversely, the estimated isotropic explosion source is highly variable. This suggests that the majority of the observed acoustic energy is produced by the spall source and/or our modeling of the elastic energy propagation, and it's subsequent conversion to acoustic energy via linear elastic-to-acoustic coupling at the free surface, is too simplistic.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Bioenergy harvest impacts to biodiversity and resilience vary across aspen‐dominated forest ecosystems in the Lake States region, USA

Abstract Questions Does the increase in disturbance associated with removing harvest residues negatively impact biodiversity and resilience in aspen‐dominated forest ecosystems? How do responses of functional diversity measures relate to community recovery and standing biomass? Location Aspen ( Populus tremuloides, Michx.) mixedwood forests in Minnesota and Michigan, USA. Methods Three levels for two factors, organic matter removal and compaction, were fully crossed, resulting in nine experimental treatments that spanned a range of disturbance severity. Each treatment was replicated three times at each of three sites dominated by the same tree species but having different soil textures (clay, silty loam, sandy). Community composition and taxonomic diversity (species richness, species evenness, Shannon diversity index) were quantified based on woody species abundance sampled 5, 10 and 15 yr after disturbance. Community composition response was assessed using non‐metric multidimensional scaling. Functional diversity (functional richness, evenness, dispersion and divergence) was also estimated using eight species effect and response traits. Finally, we examined community recovery as well as responses of species and functional diversity to disturbance severity over time using repeated measures ANOVA. Results Two responses indicated a potentially negative impact of whole‐tree harvest relative to conventional, stem‐only harvest: functional richness on silty loam soils and species evenness on clayey soils. Otherwise, negative impacts were restricted to forest floor removal or increased compaction. Recovery in community composition was reduced by the most severe treatments, particularly forest floor removal, across the study, but the responses of functional and taxonomic diversity varied among sites, with some measures increasing as a result of severe disturbance. Conclusions Maximization of standing biomass may mean a short‐term sacrifice in species and functional diversity. Also, examinations of forest management impacts on species and functional diversity and composition should apply multiple metrics and indices to ensure potential impacts are not obscured by the reliance on a single approach.

Curzon, Miranda T.↗
DOE OSTI2012

CPR methodology with new steady-state criterion and more accurate statistical treatment of channel bow

An overview is given of existing CPR design criteria and the methods used in BWR reload analysis to evaluate the impact of channel bow on CPR margins. Potential weaknesses in today's methodologies are discussed. Westinghouse in collaboration with KKL and Axpo - operator and owner of the Leibstadt NPP - has developed an optimized CPR methodology based on a new criterion to protect against dryout during normal operation and with a more rigorous treatment of channel bow. The new steady-state criterion is expressed in terms of an upper limit of 0.01 for the dryout failure probability per year. This is considered a meaningful and appropriate criterion that can be directly related to the probabilistic criteria set-up for the analyses of Anticipated Operation Occurrences (AOOs) and accidents. In the Monte Carlo approach a statistical modeling of channel bow and an accurate evaluation of CPR response functions allow the associated CPR penalties to be included directly in the plant SLMCPR and OLMCPR in a best-estimate manner. In this way, the treatment of channel bow is equivalent to all other uncertainties affecting CPR. Emphasis is put on quantifying the statistical distribution of channel bow throughout the core using measurement data. The optimized CPR methodology has been implemented in the Westinghouse Monte Carlo code, McSLAP. The methodology improves the quality of dryout safety assessments by supplying more valuable information and better control of conservatisms in establishing operational limits for CPR. The methodology is demonstrated with application examples from the introduction at KKL. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Estimation of micro-Hall-Petch coefficients for prismatic slip system in Mg-4Al as a function of grain boundary parameters

Grain size strengthening, referred to as the Hall-Petch effect, is a common strategy to improve the yield strength of magnesium (Mg) alloys. Several experimental studies have reported that the Hall-Petch slope strongly depends on the texture of the alloy. This effect arises from altering grain boundaries (GBs) resistance to different slip systems to transfer across adjacent grains. The grain boundary barrier strength of certain grain boundaries to basal slip, referred to as basal micro-Hall-Petch, was investigated in the previous work. Here in this study, the micro-Hall-Petch coefficient values for the prismatic slip $(k^{prismatic}_{μ})$ in Mg-4Al and their correlation with the grain boundary parameters were investigated. An experimental method was developed to initiate the prismatic slip band at low-stress levels. High-resolution electron backscatter diffraction (HR-EBSD) was used to measure the residual stress tensor, from which the resolved shear stress ahead of blocked prismatic slip bands was computed for seven different grain boundaries. $(k^{prismatic}_{μ})$ values for each individual GB were calculated by coupling the stress profile information with a continuum dislocation pile-up model. The $(k^{prismatic}_{μ})$ values vary from 0.138 MPa.m 1/2 to 0.685 MPa. m 1/2 which are almost three times larger than the calculated values for the basal micro-Hall-Petch. The $(k^{prismatic}_{μ})$ values were correlated with the GB parameters, and a functional relationship depending on the two most effective angles, the angle between the traces of the slip planes on the GB plane ($\phi$) and the angle between incoming and outgoing slip directions (κ), was proposed to estimate the Hall-Petch barrier for prismatic slip system. The work provides coefficients that can be supplied as input to crystal plasticity models to couple the effect of texture and grain size effectively.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2014

An analysis of the uncertainty and bias in DCE-MRI measurements using the spoiled gradient-recalled echo pulse sequence

Purpose: The pharmacokinetic parameters derived from dynamic contrast-enhanced (DCE) MRI have been used in more than 100 phase I trials and investigator led studies. A comparison of the absolute values of these quantities requires an estimation of their respective probability distribution function (PDF). The statistical variation of the DCE-MRI measurement is analyzed by considering the fundamental sources of error in the MR signal intensity acquired with the spoiled gradient-echo (SPGR) pulse sequence. Methods: The variance in the SPGR signal intensity arises from quadrature detection and excitation flip angle inconsistency. The noise power was measured in 11 phantoms of contrast agent concentration in the range [0–1] mM (in steps of 0.1 mM) and in onein vivo acquisition of a tumor-bearing mouse. The distribution of the flip angle was determined in a uniform 10 mM CuSO{sub 4} phantom using the spin echo double angle method. The PDF of a wide range of T1 values measured with the varying flip angle (VFA) technique was estimated through numerical simulations of the SPGR equation. The resultant uncertainty in contrast agent concentration was incorporated in the most common model of tracer exchange kinetics and the PDF of the derived pharmacokinetic parameters was studied numerically. Results: The VFA method is an unbiased technique for measuringT1 only in the absence of bias in excitation flip angle. The time-dependent concentration of the contrast agent measured in vivo is within the theoretically predicted uncertainty. The uncertainty in measuring K{sup trans} with SPGR pulse sequences is of the same order, but always higher than, the uncertainty in measuring the pre-injection longitudinal relaxation time (T1{sub 0}). The lowest achievable bias/uncertainty in estimating this parameter is approximately 20%–70% higher than the bias/uncertainty in the measurement of the pre-injection T1 map. The fractional volume parameters derived from the extended Tofts model were found to be extremely sensitive to the variance in signal intensity. The SNR of the pre-injection T1 map indicates the limiting precision with which K{sup trans} can be calculated. Conclusions: Current small-animal imaging systems and pulse sequences robust to motion artifacts have the capacity for reproducible quantitative acquisitions with DCE-MRI. In these circumstances, it is feasible to achieve a level of precision limited only by physiologic variability.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2015

Three-point galaxy-galaxy lensing as a probe of dark matter halo shapes

We propose a method to measure the ellipticities of dark matter halos using the lens-shear-shear 3-point correlation function. This method is immune to effects of galaxy-halo misalignments that can potentially limit 2-point galaxy-galaxy lensing measurements of halo anisotropy. Using a simple model for the projected mass distributions of dark matter halos, we construct an ellipticity estimator that sums over all possible triangular configurations of the 3-point function. By applying our estimator to halos from N-body simulations, we find that systematic errors in the recovered ellipticity will be at the ∼< 5% fractional level. We estimate that future imaging surveys like LSST will have sufficient statistics to detect halo ellipticities using 3-point lensing.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Fixed-node diffusion Monte Carlo description of nitrogen defects in zinc oxide

Using the fixed-node diffusion Monte Carlo (FN-DMC) method, we evaluate the formation energies and charge transition levels of substitutional nitrogen defects in the wide-band-gap semiconductor zinc oxide. The use of a direct-solution, many-body approach inherently secures a good description of electron-electron interactions, achieving high accuracy without adjustable parameters. According to FN-DMC nitrogen is a deep acceptor with a charge transition level 1.0(3) eV above the valence-band maximum when 72-atom supercells are used. This result falls on the lower end of typically reported hybrid density functional results for the same size supercells, which range from 1.0 to 1.8 eV. Further, residual finite-size effects due to charged defect image interactions in the 72-atom supercells are estimated by supercell extrapolation within hybrid density functional theory. When the finite-size correction is included, we obtain a deep acceptor at 1.6(3) eV. This result is in good agreement with recent experimental measurements. We also analyze the local compressibility of charge according to FN-DMC and common density functionals and find that the use of hybrid functionals obtains compressibilities in better agreement with the many-body theory. Our work illustrates the application of the FN-DMC method to a challenging point defect problem, demonstrating that uncertainties and approximations can be well controlled.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2016

Study of the influence of the parameters of an experiment on the simulation of pole figures of polycrystalline materials using electron microscopy

A two-dimensional mathematical model of a polycrystalline sample and an experiment on electron backscattering diffraction (EBSD) is considered. The measurement parameters are taken to be the scanning step and threshold grain-boundary angle. Discrete pole figures for materials with hexagonal symmetry have been calculated based on the results of the model experiment. Discrete and smoothed (by the kernel method) pole figures of the model sample and the samples in the model experiment are compared using homogeneity criterion χ{sup 2}, an estimate of the pole figure maximum and its coordinate, a deviation of the pole figures of the model in the experiment from the sample in the space of L{sub 1} measurable functions, and the RP-criterion for estimating the pole figure errors. Is is shown that the problem of calculating pole figures is ill-posed and their determination with respect to measurement parameters is not reliable.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2025

flat10MIP: an emissions-driven experiment to diagnose the climate response to positive, zero and negative CO2 emissions

Abstract. The proportionality between global mean temperature and cumulative emissions of CO2 predicted in Earth system models (ESMs) is the foundation of carbon budgeting frameworks. Deviations from this behavior could impact estimates of required net-zero timings and negative emissions requirements to meet the Paris Agreement climate targets. However, existing ESM diagnostic experiments do not allow for direct estimation of these deviations as a function of defined emissions pathways. Here, we perform a set of climate model diagnostic experiments for the assessment of transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions (TCRE), the Zero Emissions Commitment (ZEC), and climate reversibility metrics in an emissions-driven framework. The emissions-driven experiments provide consistent independent variables simplifying simulation, analysis and interpretation, with emissions rates more comparable to recent levels than existing protocols using model-specific compatible emissions from the CMIP DECK 1pctCO2 experiment, where emissions rates tend to increase during the experiment, such that at the time of CO2 doubling in year 70, emissions are much greater than present-day values. A base experiment, “esm-flat10”, has constant emissions of CO2 of 10 GtC per year (near-present-day values), and initial results show that the TCRE estimated in this experiment is about 0.1 K less than that obtained using 1pctCO2. A subset of ESMs exhibit land carbon sinks that saturate during this experiment. A branch experiment, esm-flat10-zec, illustrates that both positive and negative ZEC effects are less pronounced under esm-flat10 than under 1pctCO2 – the magnitude of ZEC50 in ESMs is, on average, reduced by 30 % compared with 1pctCO2 branch experiments. A final experiment, esm-flat10-cdr, assesses climate reversibility under negative emissions, where we find that peak warming may occur before or after net zero and that the asymmetry in temperature at a given level of cumulative emissions between the positive and negative emissions phases is well described by ZEC in most models. Further, we find that existing probabilistic simple climate model (SCM) ensembles tend to overestimate temperature reversibility compared with ESMs, highlighting the need for additional constraints. We propose a set of climate diagnostic indicators to quantify various aspects of climate reversibility. These experiments were suggested as potential candidates in CMIP7 and have since been adopted as “fast track” simulations.

Sanderson, Benjamin M↗
DOE OSTI2018

WIPP PA Sensitivity Studies in Support of CRA-2014 Completeness Determination and Compliance Decision - 18209

The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) has been developed by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) for the geologic (deep underground) disposal of transuranic (TRU) waste. Containment of TRU waste at the WIPP is regulated by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The DOE demonstrates compliance with the containment requirements by means of performance assessment (PA) calculations. WIPP PA calculations estimate the probability and consequence of potential radionuclide releases from the repository to the accessible environment for a regulatory period of 10,000 years after facility closure. Since TRU waste was first received at the WIPP in 1999, compliance recertification applications (CRAs) have been required by the EPA on five-year cycle. The latest CRA (CRA-2014) was submitted by the DOE to the EPA in 2014. As part of the application, a formal set of PA calculations (CRA-2014 PA) was performed and results were documented in detail. The CRA-2014 PA incorporated several parameter updates based on new data, as well as the implementation of a different model for panel closures, barriers planned for the opening of each waste panel. The results presented as part of the CRA-2014 showed via the required complementary cumulative distribution function (CCDF) release curves that the estimated releases were within compliance limits. As part of their process for reviewing the completeness of the CRA-2014 [1], the EPA formally requested that the DOE perform sensitivity studies based on EPA-requested changes to model parameters. The DOE performed and documented the results of three sensitivity studies described below: CRA14-SEN2 [2], CRA14-SEN3 [3], and CRA14-SEN4 [4]. In each case, the new analysis results were compared to CRA- 2014 PA (CRA14) results to determine the impact of the EPA-requested changes. CRA14-SEN2: the application of EPA-requested modified parameters in the operations and experimental (non-waste) areas of the repository to simulate an accelerated (instantaneous) creep closure, the inclusion of capillary pressure effects on relative permeability, and an increase in initial/residual brine saturation and residual gas saturation. The modifications to the repository model resulted in increased pressures and decreased brine saturations in waste areas and increased pressures and brine saturations in the operations and experimental areas. However, the overall effects on total high-probability mean releases from the repository were entirely insignificant. It was concluded that the modeling assumptions associated with the operations and experimental areas of the repository have an insignificant effect on the prediction of total releases from the repository and/or adequacy of the current (CRA14) model to demonstrate compliance with the regulatory limits. CRA14-SEN3: the application of EPA-requested modified parameters in the panel closure areas and operations and experimental (non-waste) areas of the repository to simulate an accelerated (instantaneous) creep closure, the inclusion of capillary pressure effects on relative permeability, and an increase in initial/residual brine saturation and residual gas saturation. The modifications to the repository model predominantly result in increased pressures and decreased brine saturations in waste areas, increased pressures and brine saturations in the operations and experimental areas, and decreased brine and gas flows across all panel closures. The pressure increases in repository waste regions yielded slightly decreased brine saturations (on average) in those areas. However, the overall effects on total high-probability mean releases from the repository are entirely insignificant. It was concluded that the modeling assumptions made for this sensitivity study which were associated with the panel closures and north end areas of the repository have only a small effect on the prediction of total releases from the repository and/or adequacy of the current (CRA14) model to demonstrate compliance with the regulatory limits. CRA14-SEN4: the application of several changes to the current WIPP PA model (CRA14), including: parameter changes, use of an updated code, and a revised computational grid for the BRAGFLO code. The modifications to the repository model resulted in increased releases in all primary release mechanisms. The impacts of each EPA-requested change to CRA14 were analyzed with respect to each release mechanism in the CRA14-SEN4 study. Overall, total high-probability predicted mean releases from the repository were increased by about 15%. Total low-probability predicted mean releases were increased by about 107%. It was concluded that the EPA-requested changes to the CRA14 result in increases to the predicted total releases from the repository. However, releases calculated in the CRA14-SEN4 analysis remained below regulatory limits, demonstrating continued compliance of the WIPP. In January 2017, the EPA determined that CRA-2014 was complete and then began a technical evaluation of CRA-2014 to determine whether the WIPP continued to comply with the radiation protection standards for disposal. During their evaluation, the EPA utilized the sensitivity study results to inform their ultimate determination in July 2017 that the WIPP continues to comply with regulatory standards. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2016

The Chandra cosmos legacy survey: clustering of X-ray-selected AGNs at 2.9 ≤ z ≤ 5.5 using photometric redshift probability distribution functions

We present the measurement of the projected and redshift-space two-point correlation function (2pcf) of the new catalog of Chandra COSMOS-Legacy active galactic nucleus (AGN) at 2.9 ≤ z ≤ 5.5 (〈L{sub bol}〉 ∼ 10{sup 46} erg s{sup −1}) using the generalized clustering estimator based on phot-z probability distribution functions in addition to any available spec-z. We model the projected 2pcf, estimated using π {sub max} = 200 h{sup −1} Mpc with the two-halo term and we derive a bias at z ∼ 3.4 equal to b = 6.6{sub −0.55}{sup +0.60}, which corresponds to a typical mass of the hosting halos of log M {sub h} = 12.83{sub −0.11}{sup +0.12} h{sup −1} M {sub ⊙}. A similar bias is derived using the redshift-space 2pcf, modeled including the typical phot-z error σ {sub z} = 0.052 of our sample at z ≥ 2.9. Once we integrate the projected 2pcf up to π {sub max} = 200 h{sup −1} Mpc, the bias of XMM and Chandra COSMOS at z = 2.8 used in Allevato et al. is consistent with our results at higher redshifts. The results suggest only a slight increase of the bias factor of COSMOS AGNs at z ≳ 3 with the typical hosting halo mass of moderate-luminosity AGNs almost constant with redshift and equal to log M {sub h} = 12.92{sub −0.18}{sup +0.13} at z = 2.8 and log M {sub h} = 12.83{sub −0.11}{sup +0.12} at z ∼ 3.4, respectively. The observed redshift evolution of the bias of COSMOS AGNs implies that moderate-luminosity AGNs still inhabit group-sized halos at z ≳ 3, but slightly less massive than observed in different independent studies using X-ray AGNs at z ≤ 2.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗