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NASA NTRS2004

Over-Luminous Elliptical Galaxies

The first paper from our work has been completed and accepted for publication. Another paper presents a study of the ESO 30601 70 galaxy group, combining Chandra, XMM-Newton, and optical observations. We find that the system is a true fossil galaxy group - a group whose optical light is dominated by a single galaxy. The group X-ray emission is composed of a central, dense, cool core (10 kpc in radius) and an isothermal medium beyond the central 10 kpc. The region between 10 and 50 kpc (the cooling radius) has the same temperature as the gas from 50 to 400 kpc, although the gas cooling time between 10 and 50 kpc (2-6 Gyr) is shorter than the Hubble time. Thus, the ESO 3060170 group does not have a group-sized cooling core. We suggest that the group cooling core may have been heated by a central active galactic nucleus (AGN) outburst in the past and that the small, dense, cool core is the truncated relic of a previous cooling core. The Chandra observations also reveal a variety of X-ray features in the central region, including a finger, an edge-like feature, and a small tail, all aligned along a north-south axis, as are the galaxy light and group galaxy distribution. The proposed AGN outburst may cause gas to slosh around the center and produce these asymmetric features. The observed flat temperature profile to 1/3rvir is not consistent with the predicted temperature profile in recent numerical simulations. We compare the entropy profile of the ESO 3060170 group with those of three other groups and find a flatter relation than that predicted by simulations involving only shock heating, S approximately r approximately 0.85. This is direct evidence of the importance of non-gravitational processes in group centers. We derive the mass profiles within 1/3rvir and find that the ESO 3060170 group is the most massive fossil group known.

Forman, William↗
NASA NTRS2005

Instrument Drift Uncertainties and the Long-Term TOMS/SBUV Total Ozone Record

Long-term climate records from satellites are often constructed from the measurements of a sequence of instruments launched at different times. Each of these instruments is calibrated prior to launch. After launch they are subjected to potential offsets and slow drifts in calibration. We illustrate these issues in the construction of a merged total ozone record from two TOMS and three SBUV instruments. This record extends from late 1978 through the present. The question is "How good are these records?". We have examined the uncertainty in determining the relative calibration of two instruments during an overlap period in their measurements. When comparing a TOMS instrument, such as that on Nimbus 7, with an SBUV instrument, also on Nimbus 7, we find systematic differences and random differences. We have combined these findings with estimates of individual instrument drift into a monte- carlo uncertainty propagation model. We estimate an instrument drift uncertainty of a little larger than 1 percent per decade over the 25-year history of the TOMS/SBUV measurements. We make an independent estimate of the drift uncertainty in the ground-based network of total ozone measurements and find it to be of similar, but slightly smaller magnitude. The implications of these uncertainties for trend and recovery determination will be discussed.

Solarski, Richard S.↗
NASA NTRS2005

XMM-Newton Archival Study of the ULX Population in Nearby Galaxies

We have conducted an archival XMM-Newton study of the bright X-ray point sources in 32 nearby galaxies. From our list of approximately 100 point sources, we attempt to determine if there is a low-state counterpart to the Ultraluminous X-ray (ULX) population. Indeed, 16 sources in our sample match the criteria we set for a low-state ULX, namely, L(sub X) greater than 10(exp 38 ergs per second) and a spectrum best fit with an absorbed power law. Further, we find evidence for 26 high-state ULXs which are best fit by a combined blackbody and a power law. As in Galactic black hole systems, the spectral indices, GAMMA, of the low-state objects, as well a s the luminosities, tend to be lower than those of the high-state objects. The observed range of blackbody temperatures is 0.1-1 keV with the most luminous systems tending toward the lowest temperatures. We also find a class of object whose properties (luminosity, blackbody temperature, and power law slopes) are very similar to those of galactic stellar mass black holes. In addition, we find a subset of these objects that can be best fit by a Comptonized spectrum similar to that used for Galactic black holes in the very high state, when they are radiating near the Eddington limit.

Winter, Lisa M.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Influence of Nucleation Mechanisms on the Radiative Properties of Deep Convective Clouds and Subvisible Cirrus in CRYSTAL/FACE

During the past few years we have conducted work on several different topics, as reflected by our publications. As one of the Co-Project scientists for The Cirrus Regional Study of Tropical Anvils and Cirrus Layers - Florida Area Cirrus Experiment (CRYSTAL FACE) we worked to help design the mission and then conduct it in the field. Another major activity during the past two years has been to pull together various groups to formulate plans for follow on missions to CRYSTAL FACE. We organized a workshop at the University of Colorado during the summer of 2003 to assess the best locations for future missions. Working with a group of about 10 scientists from around the country we prepared a science-planning document (Tropical Composition, Cloud and Climate Coupling Experiment (TC(sup 4)) that outlined the rationale, locations, strategy to accomplish the goals, and possible payloads for a set of three tropical missions. We also prepared background materials for various NRAs being prepared at NASA Headquarters for missions in Costa Rica, Darwin and Guam. In conjunction with the group at NASA Ames we have helped build a new numerical model for deep convection and have applied that model to simulate the CRYSTAL data. Our goal in particular has been to better understand how convection distributes water vapor isotopes. CRYSTAL observations of water isotopes are very different from those suggested by previous workers who assumed the isotopes would obey Rayleigh fractionation. The water isotope study has several implications. First it is a check on the realism of the deep convection model. Second, the isotopes are a measure of the precipitation removal in the atmosphere. Hence they provide a constraint on a parameter that is difficult to otherwise measure. Finally it has been suggested that isotopes may be the key to unraveling the water transport into the stratosphere and upper troposphere. Such transport is critical both for the radiation balance and for stratospheric chemistry. Ours is the first model that is able to treat this transport. Our initial results have just been submitted to Geophys. Res. Lett (Smith et al., 2005). Essentially we are able to explain the vertical profiles of isotopes in the tropical tropopause transition layer. We are also able to account for stratospheric humidity and isotope abundances with this model. We have also been heavily involved in trying to improve our understanding of nitric acid condensation on ice. Gao et al (2004) have shown that water supersaturations above ice occur when the atmosphere is supersaturated with respect to nitric acid trihydrate. As one of the co-authors of that work, we suggested the mechanism that may explain why this is occurring. Essentially, ice does not like to grow near unit supersaturation, but does so because the water molecules can find sites on the ice surface to attach themselves to before they fly off the ice surface. This phenomena was well known in the 1960s when it was a source of debate about whether condensation and evaporation coefficients for ice would be the same. Evaporation does not require any molecular orientation, while condensation does, so it was possible that the coefficients would differ. They don't differ because the water molecules rapidly move across the surface and find places to attach. Nitric acid may be occupying these preferred sites and therefore the water molecules can't find a desirable place to attach. We anticipate that this research will be the subject of laboratory work during the coming few years. Another possibility that has been suggested is that cubic ice is forming in clouds. We have measured the vapor pressure of cubic ice, and plan to publish that result in the next few months. We have also been working on additional aspects of the condensation of nitric acid on ice. With Y. Kondo we studied the condensation of NOy on ice using the SOLVE data. Gamblin et al. have continued this work. The CRYSTAL NOy and HNO, groups have shown th their data can be fit using standard Langmuir isotherms as suggested in some, but not all, laboratory studies. We have found in the SOLVE data set that this is not the case. Moreover some laboratory studies show there are important kinetic effects that may be occurring in the atmosphere limiting the transfer of nitric acid to the ice. The SOLVE data seem consistent with these studies. We are currently re-analyzing the CRYSTAL data to look for these kinetic effects. There are a number of implications of these studies. One of the more interesting is that the nitric acid coating on ice can be used as a cloud clock to determine how long the cloud parcel has been in existence. We have also been involved with several laboratory studies. We have worked to improve the database on ice optical constants, which are critical for remote sensing. We have also studied the ways in which ice nucleates on clays. We suspect now that the standard theories used for depositional ice nucleation are completely incorrect. Further work will be needed to develop a new theory.

Toon, Owen B.↗
NASA NTRS2004

OTIS 3.2 Software Released

Trajectory, mission, and vehicle engineers concern themselves with finding the best way for an object to get from one place to another. These engineers rely upon special software to assist them in this. For a number of years, many engineers have used the OTIS program for this assistance. With OTIS, an engineer can fully optimize trajectories for airplanes, launch vehicles like the space shuttle, interplanetary spacecraft, and orbital transfer vehicles. OTIS provides four modes of operation, with each mode providing successively stronger optimization capability. The most powerful mode uses a mathematical method called implicit integration to solve what engineers and mathematicians call the optimal control problem. OTIS 3.2, which was developed at the NASA Glenn Research Center, is the latest release of this industry workhorse and features new capabilities for parameter optimization and mission design. OTIS stands for Optimal Control by Implicit Simulation, and it is implicit integration that makes OTIS so powerful at solving trajectory optimization problems. Why is this so important? The optimization process not only determines how to get from point A to point B, but it can also determine how to do this with the least amount of propellant, with the lightest starting weight, or in the fastest time possible while avoiding certain obstacles along the way. There are numerous conditions that engineers can use to define optimal, or best. OTIS provides a framework for defining the starting and ending points of the trajectory (point A and point B), the constraints on the trajectory (requirements like "avoid these regions where obstacles occur"), and what is being optimized (e.g., minimize propellant). The implicit integration method can find solutions to very complicated problems when there is not a lot of information available about what the optimal trajectory might be. The method was first developed for solving two-point boundary value problems and was adapted for use in OTIS. Implicit integration usually allows OTIS to find solutions to problems much faster than programs that use explicit integration and parametric methods. Consequently, OTIS is best suited to solving very complicated and highly constrained problems.

Riehl, John P.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Decay of Solar Active Regions

We examine the record of sunspot group areas observed over a period of 100 years to determine the rate of decay of solar active regions. We exclude observations of groups when they are more than 60deg in longitude from the central meridian and only include data when at least three days of observations are available following the date of maximum area for a spot group's disk passage. This leaves data for some 24,000 observations of active region decay. We find that the decay rate is a constant 20 microHem/day for spots smaller than about 200 microHem (about the size of a supergranule). This decay rate increases linearly to about 90 microHem/day for spots with areas of 1000 microHem. We find no evidence for significant variations in active region decay from one solar cycle to another. However, we do find that the decay rate is slower at lower latitudes. This gives a slower decay rate during the declining phase of sunspot cycles.

Hathaway, David H.↗
NASA NTRS1997

SYNTHESIS OF NOVEL ALL-DIELECTRIC GRATING FILTERS USING GENETIC ALGORITHMS

We are concerned with the design of inhomogeneous, all dielectric (lossless) periodic structures which act as filters. Dielectric filters made as stacks of inhomogeneous gratings and layers of materials are being used in optical technology, but are not common at microwave frequencies. The problem is then finding the periodic cell's geometric configuration and permittivity values which correspond to a specified reflectivity/transmittivity response as a function of frequency/illumination angle. This type of design can be thought of as an inverse-source problem, since it entails finding a distribution of sources which produce fields (or quantities derived from them) of given characteristics. Electromagnetic sources (electric and magnetic current densities) in a volume are related to the outside fields by a well known linear integral equation. Additionally, the sources are related to the fields inside the volume by a constitutive equation, involving the material properties. Then, the relationship linking the fields outside the source region to those inside is non-linear, in terms of material properties such as permittivity, permeability and conductivity. The solution of the non-linear inverse problem is cast here as a combination of two linear steps, by explicitly introducing the electromagnetic sources in the computational volume as a set of unknowns in addition to the material unknowns. This allows to solve for material parameters and related electric fields in the source volume which are consistent with Maxwell's equations. Solutions are obtained iteratively by decoupling the two steps. First, we invert for the permittivity only in the minimization of a cost function and second, given the materials, we find the corresponding electric fields through direct solution of the integral equation in the source volume. The sources thus computed are used to generate the far fields and the synthesized triter response. The cost function is obtained by calculating the deviation between the synthesized value of reflectivity/transmittivity and the desired one. Solution geometries for the periodic cell are sought as gratings (ensembles of columns of different heights and widths), or combinations of homogeneous layers of different dielectric materials and gratings. Hence the explicit unknowns of the inversion step are the material permittivities and the relative boundaries separating homogeneous parcels of the periodic cell.

Zuffada, Cinzia↗
NASA NTRS2005

Dynamic Harris current sheet thickness from Cluster current density and plasma measurements

We use the first accurate measurements of current densities in the plasma sheet to calculate the half-thickness and position of the current sheet as a function of time. Our technique assumes a Harris current sheet model, which is parameterized by lobe magnetic field B(o), current sheet half-thickness h, and current sheet position z(sub o). Cluster measurements of magnetic field, current density, and plasma pressure are used to infer the three parameters as a function of time. We find that most long timescale (6-12 hours) current sheet crossings observed by Cluster cannot be described by a static Harris current sheet with a single set of parameters B(sub o), h, and z(sub o). Noting the presence of high-frequency fluctuations that appear to be superimposed on lower frequency variations, we average over running 6-min intervals and use the smoothed data to infer the parameters h(t) and z(sub o)(t), constrained by the pressure balance lobe magnetic field B(sub o)(t). Whereas this approach has been used in previous studies, the spatial gnuhen& now provided by the Cluster magnetometers were unavailable or not well constrained in earlier studies. We place the calculated hdf&cknessa in a magnetospheric context by examining the change in thickness with substorm phase for three case study events and 21 events in a superposed epoch analysis. We find that the inferred half-thickness in many cases reflects the nominal changes experienced by the plasma sheet during substorms (i.e., thinning during growth phase, thickening following substorm onset). We conclude with an analysis of the relative contribution of (Delta)B(sub z)/(Delta)X to the cross-tail current density during substorms. We find that (Delta)B(sub z)/(Delta)X can contribute a significant portion of the cross-tail c m n t around substorm onset.

Thompson, S. M.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Aerogel Development

Aerogel is one of the most promising materials of the future. It's unique properties, including high porosity, transparency, very high thermal tolerance, and environmental friendliness give it the potential of replacing many different products used in society today. However, the market for aerogel is still very limited because of the cost of producing the material and its fragility. The principle objective of my project has been to find new ways to apply aerogel in order to increase its practicality and appeal to different aspects of society. More specifically, I have focused on finding different chemicals that will coat aerogel and increase its durability. Because aerogel is so fragile and will crumble under the pressure of most coatings this has been no easy task. However, by experimenting with many different coatings and combinations of aerogel properties, I have made several significant discoveries. Aerogel (ideally, high density and hydrophobic) can be coated with several acrylic polymers, including artist's gel and nail polish. These materials provide a protective layering around the aerogel and keep it from breaking as easily. Because fragility is one of the main reasons applications of aerogel are limited, these discoveries will hopefully aid in finding future applications for this extraordinary material.

Sahai, Rashmi K.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Spatial Correlation Function of the Chandra Selected Active Galactic Nuclei

We present the spatial correlation function analysis of non-stellar X-ray point sources in the Chandra Large Area Synoptic X-ray Survey of Lockman Hole Northwest (CLASXS). Our 9 ACIS-I fields cover a contiguous solid angle of 0.4 deg(exp 2) and reach a depth of 3 x 10(exp -15) erg/square cm/s in the 2-8 keV band. We supplement our analysis with data from the Chandra Deep Field North (CDFN). The addition of this field allows better probe of the correlation function at small scales. A total of 233 and 252 sources with spectroscopic information are used in the study of the CLASXS and CDFN fields respectively. We calculate both redshift-space and projected correlation functions in co-moving coordinates, averaged over the redshift range of 0.1 < z < 3.0, for both CLASXS and CDFN fields for a standard cosmology with Omega(sub Lambda) = 0.73,Omega(sub M) = 0.27, and h = 0.71 (H(sub 0) = 100h km/s Mpc(exp -1). The correlation function for the CLASXS field over scales of 3 Mpc< s < 200 Mpc can be modeled as a power-law of the form xi(s) = (S/SO)(exp - gamma), with gamma = 1.6(sup +0.4 sub -0.3) and S(sub o) = 8.0(sup +.14 sub -1.5) Mpc. The redshift-space correlation function for CDFN on scales of 1 Mpc< s < 100 Mpc is found to have a similar correlation length so = 8.55(sup +0.74 sub -0.74) Mpc, but a shallower slope (gamma = 1.3 +/- 0.1). The real-space correlation functions derived from the projected correlation functions, are found to be tau(sub 0 = 8.1(sup +1.2 sub -2.2) Mpc, and gamma = 2.1 +/- 0.5 for the CLASXS field, and tau(sub 0) = 5.8(sup +.1.0 sub -1.5) Mpc, gamma = 1.38(sup +0.12 sub -0.14 for the CDFN field. By comparing the real- and redshift-space correlation functions in the combined CLASXS and CDFN samples, we are able to estimate the redshift distortion parameter Beta = 0.4 +/- 0.2 at an effective redshift z = 0.94. We compare the correlation functions for hard and soft spectra sources in the CLASXS field and find no significant difference between the two groups. We have also found that the correlation between X-ray luminosity and clustering amplitude is weak, which, however, is fully consistent with the expectation using the simplest relations between X-ray luminosity, black hole mass, and dark halo mass. We study the evolution of the AGN clustering by dividing the samples into 4 redshift bins over 0.1 Mpc< z <3.0 Mpc. We find a very mild evolution in the clustering amplitude, which show the same evolution trend found in optically selected quasars in the 2dF survey. We estimate the evolution of the bias, and find that the bias increases rapidly with redshift (b(z = 0.45) = 0.95 +/- 0.15 and b(z = 2.07) = 3.03 +/- 0.83): The typical mass of the dark matter halo derived from the bias estimates show little change with redshift. The average halo mass is found to be log (M(sub halo)/M(sun))approximates 12.1. Subject headings: cosmology: observations - large-scale structure of the universe - x-rays: diffuse background - galaxies: nuclei

Yang, Y.↗
NASA NTRS2006

On the design of a science orbit about Europa

A science mission about Europa requires high-inclination low-altitude orbits. However, perturbations of Jupiter on the orbiter result in instability. Previous approaches to maximize the lifetime of the orbiter use the doubly averaged problem. We work with the unaveraged equations and find unstable periodic orbits with long lifetimes. These low-altitude repeat ground track solutions exist at all inclinations, making them suitable for mapping missions. The governing dynamics include Hill's model and a Europa gravity field based on synchronous moon theory. Inclusion of additional gravity terms is trivial to the solution method, and for the case of J3, we find a marginal impact on orbit lifetime. The science orbits are found to last on the order of 1 year when the initial conditions are achieved to 11 significant digits and 4 months when only 3 significant digits are achieved. Finally, we demonstrate that the solutions are robust in a realistic ephemeris model, finding average lifetimes of 3 to 4 months for wide range of initial conditions with peak lifetimes of up to 6 months.

unstable↗
NASA NTRS2006

Leadership Challenges in ISS Operations: Lessons Learned from Junior and Senior Mission Control Personnel

The International Space Station (ISS) is operated by a multi-national, multi-organizational team that is dispersed across multiple locations, time zones, and work schedules. At NASA, both junior and senior mission control personnel have had to find ways to address the leadership challenges inherent in such work, but neither have had systematic training in how to do so. The goals of this study were to examine the major leadership challenges faced by ISS mission control personnel and to highlight the approaches that they have found most effective to surmount them. We pay particular attention to the approaches successfully employed by the senior personnel and to the training needs identified by the junior personnel. We also evaluate the extent to which responses are consistent across the junior and senior samples. Further, we compare the issues identified by our interview survey to those identified by a standardized questionnaire survey of mission control personnel and a contrasting group of space station crewmembers. We studied a sample of 14 senior ISS flight controllers and a contrasting sample of 12 more junior ISS controllers. Data were collected using a semi-structured qualitative interview and content analyzed using an iterative process with multiple coders and consensus meetings to resolve discrepancies. To further explore the meaning of the interview findings, we also conducted new analyses of data from a previous questionnaire study of 13 American astronauts, 17 Russian cosmonauts, and 150 U.S. and 36 Russian mission control personnel supporting the ISS or Mir space stations. The interview data showed that the survey respondents had substantial consensus on several leadership challenges and on key strategies for dealing with them, and they offered a wide range of specific tactics for implementing these strategies. Interview data from the junior respondents will be presented for the first time at the meeting. The questionnaire data showed that the US mission control sample reported a level of support from their management that compared favorably to national norms. American mission control personnel and Russian crewmembers reported higher supervisor support than American crewmembers and Russian mission control personnel. We will present the specific issues underlying these findings and compare and contrast the results from the two datasets. Although specific to space station personnel, our results are consistent with recent management, cultural, and aerospace research. We aim to use our results to improve training for current and future mission control personnel.

Clement, James L.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Contrasting Perspectives Of Junior versus Senior NASA ISS Flight Controllers On Leadership And Cultural Issues

NASA flight controllers have always worked in a very demanding environment, but the International Space Station (ISS) poses even more challenges than prior missions. A recent NASA/Ames survey by Parke and Orasanu of NASA/Johnson flight controllers uncovered concerns about communications problems between American personnel and their international counterparts. To better understand these problems, we interviewed 14 senior and 12 junior ISS flight controllers at NASA/Johnson about leadership and cultural challenges they face and strategies for addressing these challenges. The qualitative interview data were coded and tabulated. Here we present quantitative analyses testing for differences between junior and senior controllers. Based on nonparametric statistical tests comparing responses across groups, the senior controllers were significantly more aware of the impact of working in dispersed teams, the context of constant change, and the upcoming multilateral challenges, while junior controllers were more aware of language and cultural issues. We consider our findings in light of other studies of controllers and other known differences between senior and junior controllers. For example, the fact that senior controllers had their formative early experience controlling pre-ISS short-duration Shuttle missions seems to have both positive and negative aspects, which are supported by our data. Our findings may also reflect gender differences, but we cannot unconfound this effect in our data because all the senior respondents were males. Many of the junior-senior differences are not only due to elapsed time on the job, but also due to a cohort effect. The findings of this study should be used for training curricula tailored differently for junior and senior controllers.

Clement, James L.↗
NASA NTRS2006

An Unusual Precursor Burst with Oscillations from SAX J1808.4-3658

We report the finding of an unusual, weak precursor to a thermonuclear X-ray burst from the accreting millisecond pulsar SAX 51808.4-3658. The burst in question was observed on Oct. 19, 2002 with the Rossi X-Ray Timing Explorer (RXTE) proportional counter array (PCA). The precursor began approx. equal to 1 s prior to the onset of a strong radius expansion burst, lasted for about 0.4 s, and exhibited strong oscillations at the 401 Hz spin frequency. Oscillations are not detected in the approx. equal to 0.5 s interval between the precursor and the main burst. The estimated peak photon flux and energy fluence of the precursor are about 1/25, and 1/500 that of the main burst, respectively. From joint spectral and temporal modeling, we find that an expanding burning region with a relatively low temperature on the spinning neutron star surface can explain the oscillations, as well as the faintness of the precursor with respect to the main part of the burst. We discuss some of the implications of our findings for the ignition and spreading of thermonuclear flames on neutron stars.

Bhattacharyya, Sudip↗
NASA NTRS2007

SWIFT Discovery of Gamma-ray Bursts without Jet Break Feature in their X-ray Afterglows

We analyze Swift gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) and X-ray afterglows for three GRBs with spectroscopic redshift determinations - GRB 050401, XRF 050416a, and GRB 050525a. We find that the relation between spectral peak energy and isotropic energy of prompt emissions (the Amati relation) is consistent with that for the bursts observed in pre-Swift era. However, we find that the X-ray afterglow lightcurves, which extend up to 10 - 70 days, show no sign of the jet break that is expected in the standard framework of collimated outflows. We do so by showing that none of the X-ray afterglow lightcurves in our sample satisfies the relation between the spectral and temporal indices that is predicted for the phase after jet break. The jet break time can be predicted by inverting the tight empirical relation between the peak energy of the spectrum and the collimation-corrected energy of the prompt emission (the Ghirlanda relation). We find that there are no temporal breaks within the predicted time intervals in X-ray band. This requires either that the Ghirlanda relation has a larger scatter than previously thought, that the temporal break in X-rays is masked by some additional source of X-ray emission, or that it does not happen because of some unknown reason.

Sato, G.↗
NASA NTRS2007

[Space Weather Impact on the Electricity Market]

Forbes & St. Cyr (2004, hereafter "FISC") have provided evidence that the electricity market can be impacted by space weather. Our analysis indicated that the estimated market impact for PJM was 3.7 % or approximately $500 million dollars over the 19 month sample period. Kappenman has taken exception to this estimate and contends that we have exaggerated the magnitude of the problem that space weather poses to PJM. There are four specific issues: (1) he claims that we have ignored relevant literature; (2) he asserts that Dst is not an appropriate proxy for GICs in PJM; (3) he charges that our findings are inconsistent with the impact of the 17 September 2000 storm; and (4) he alleges that our discussion of October 2003 storms is misleading. In our article, we have explained our methodology, multivariate regression analysis, with a particular focus on how it compares to correlation analysis. We have also explained the limitations of our analysis. We noted that "...While the Dstlprice relationship was found to be robust, the precise estimate should be treated with a relatively high degree of caution given that econometric modeling is not an exact science as well as the fact that the measure of space weather may be a poor proxy for GICs" (paragraph 96). We have also noted that additional research using local magnetometer data are needed (paragraph 97). We did not claim that that our findings for PJM are representative of the impact of space weather on other power grids. On the contrary, we noted that ... "Only analysis of other power grids will tell. " (paragraph 97). Kappenman inaccurately asserts that we have indicated that our findings . . . "imply much higher total costs are likely across the US and elsewhere in the world." He also inaccurately asserts that we have claimed that " . . . Dst is the most suited proxy for GIC in the PJM grid.. ." Moreover, he inaccurately refers to our analysis as a correlation study that uses Dst as quasi-binary indicator.

SaintCyr, O. Chris↗
NASA NTRS2007

Ares I Crew Launch Vehicle Project: Forward Plan to Preliminary Design Review

The Exploration Launch Projects Office, located at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center, conducted the Ares I Crew Launch Vehicle System Requirements Review (SRR) at the end of 2006, a mere year after the project team was assembled. In Ares' first year, extensive trade studies and evaluations were conducted to refine the design initially recommended by the Exploration Systems Architecture Study, conceptual designs were analyzed for fitness, and the contractual framework was assembled to enable a development effort unparalleled in American space flight since the Space Shuttle. Now, the project turns its focus to the Preliminary Design Review (PDR), scheduled for 2008. Taking into consideration the findings of the SRR, the design of the Ares I is being tightened and refined to meet the operability, reliability, and affordability goals outlined by the Constellation Program. As directed in NASA Procedure and Regulation (NPR) 7123, NASA Systems Engineering Procedural Requirements, the Ares I SRR examined "the functional and performance requirements defined for the system and the preliminary program or project plan and ensures that the requirements and the selected concept will satisfy the mission." The SRR was conducted to ensure the system- and element-level design and interface requirements are defined prior to proceeding into the project's design phase. The Exploration Launch Projects Control Board convened on December 19,2006, and accepted the findings of the SRR and the go-forward plan proceeding to PDR. Based upon these findings, the Ares project believes that operability must drive the vehicle's design, and that a number of design challenges, including system mass and reliability, must be addressed as part of the progress to PDR.

Dumbacher, Daniel L.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Application of p-Multigrid to Discontinuous Galerkin Formulations of the Poisson Equation

We investigate p-multigrid as a solution method for several different discontinuous Galerkin (DG) formulations of the Poisson equation. Different combinations of relaxation schemes and basis sets have been combined with the DG formulations to find the best performing combination. The damping factors of the schemes have been determined using Fourier analysis for both one and two-dimensional problems. One important finding is that when using DG formulations, the standard approach of forming the coarse p matrices separately for each level of multigrid is often unstable. To ensure stability the coarse p matrices must be constructed from the fine grid matrices using algebraic multigrid techniques. Of the relaxation schemes, we find that the combination of Jacobi relaxation with the spectral element basis is fairly effective. The results using this combination are p sensitive in both one and two dimensions, but reasonable convergence rates can still be achieved for moderate values of p and isotropic meshes. A competitive alternative is a block Gauss-Seidel relaxation. This actually out performs a more expensive line relaxation when the mesh is isotropic. When the mesh becomes highly anisotropic, the implicit line method and the Gauss-Seidel implicit line method are the only effective schemes. Adding the Gauss-Seidel terms to the implicit line method gives a significant improvement over the line relaxation method.

Helenbrook, B. T.↗