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Rain on snow (ROS) understudied in sea ice remote sensing: a multi-sensor analysis of ROS during MOSAiC (Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate)

Abstract. Arctic rain on snow (ROS) deposits liquid water onto existing snowpacks. Upon refreezing, this can form icy crusts at the surface or within the snowpack. By altering radar backscatter and microwave emissivity, ROS over sea ice can influence the accuracy of sea ice variables retrieved from satellite radar altimetry, scatterometers, and passive microwave radiometers. During the Arctic Ocean MOSAiC (Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate) expedition, there was an unprecedented opportunity to observe a ROS event using in situ active and passive microwave instruments similar to those deployed on satellite platforms. During liquid water accumulation in the snowpack from rain and increased melt, there was a 4-fold decrease in radar energy returned at Ku- and Ka-bands. After the snowpack refroze and ice layers formed, this decrease was followed by a 6-fold increase in returned energy. Besides altering the radar backscatter, analysis of the returned waveforms shows the waveform shape changed in response to rain and refreezing. Microwave emissivity at 19 and 89 GHz increased with increasing liquid water content and decreased as the snowpack refroze, yet subsequent ice layers altered the polarization difference. Corresponding analysis of the CryoSat-2 waveform shape and backscatter as well as AMSR2 brightness temperatures further shows that the rain and refreeze were significant enough to impact satellite returns. Our analysis provides the first detailed in situ analysis of the impacts of ROS and subsequent refreezing on both active and passive microwave observations, providing important baseline knowledge for detecting ROS over sea ice and assessing their impacts on satellite-derived sea ice variables.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Wind redistribution of snow impacts the Ka- and Ku-band radar signatures of Arctic sea ice

Wind-driven redistribution of snow on sea ice alters its topography and microstructure, yet the impact of these processes on radar signatures is poorly understood. Here, we examine the effects of snow redistribution over Arctic sea ice on radar waveforms and backscatter signatures obtained from a surface-based, fully polarimetric Ka- and Ku-band radar at incidence angles between 0° (nadir) and 50°. Two wind events in November 2019 during the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition are evaluated. During both events, changes in Ka- and Ku-band radar waveforms and backscatter coefficients at nadir are observed, coincident with surface topography changes measured by a terrestrial laser scanner. At both frequencies, redistribution caused snow densification at the surface and the uppermost layers, increasing the scattering at the air–snow interface at nadir and its prevalence as the dominant radar scattering surface. The waveform data also detected the presence of previous air–snow interfaces, buried beneath newly deposited snow. The additional scattering from previous air–snow interfaces could therefore affect the range retrieved from Ka- and Ku-band satellite altimeters. With increasing incidence angles, the relative scattering contribution of the air–snow interface decreases, and the snow–sea ice interface scattering increases. Relative to pre-wind event conditions, azimuthally averaged backscatter at nadir during the wind events increases by up to 8 dB (Ka-band) and 5 dB (Ku-band). Results show substantial backscatter variability within the scan area at all incidence angles and polarizations, in response to increasing wind speed and changes in wind direction. Our results show that snow redistribution and wind compaction need to be accounted for to interpret airborne and satellite radar measurements of snow-covered sea ice.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Formation and fate of freshwater on an ice floe in the Central Arctic

The melt of snow and sea ice during the Arctic summer is a significant source of relatively fresh meltwater. The fate of this freshwater, whether in surface melt ponds or thin layers underneath the ice and in leads, impacts atmosphere–ice–ocean interactions and their subsequent coupled evolution. Here, we combine analyses of datasets from the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition (June–July 2020) for a process study on the formation and fate of sea ice freshwater on ice floes in the Central Arctic. Our freshwater budget analyses suggest that a relatively high fraction (58 %) is derived from surface melt. Additionally, the contribution from stored precipitation (snowmelt) outweighs by 5 times the input from in situ summer precipitation (rain). The magnitude and rate of local meltwater production are remarkably similar to those observed on the prior Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean (SHEBA) campaign, where the cumulative summer freshwater production totaled around 1 m during both. A relatively small fraction (10 %) of freshwater from melt remains in ponds, which is higher on more deformed second-year ice (SYI) compared to first-year ice (FYI) later in the summer. Most meltwater drains laterally and vertically, with vertical drainage enabling storage of freshwater internally in the ice by freshening brine channels. In the upper ocean, freshwater can accumulate in transient meltwater layers on the order of 0.1 to 1 m thick in leads and under the ice. The presence of such layers substantially impacts the coupled system by reducing bottom melt and allowing false bottom growth; reducing heat, nutrient, and gas exchange; and influencing ecosystem productivity. Regardless, the majority fraction of freshwater from melt is inferred to be ultimately incorporated into the upper ocean (75 %) or stored internally in the ice (14 %). Terms such as the annual sea ice freshwater production and meltwater storage in ponds could be used in future work as diagnostics for global climate and process models. For example, the range of values from the CESM2 climate model roughly encapsulate the observed total freshwater production, while storage in melt ponds is underestimated by about 50 %, suggesting pond drainage terms as a key process for investigation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Force-triggered, Bio-based, Sealants for Prefabricated Building Components: Towards Improved Efficiency, Performance and Sustainability

The prefabricated building construction industry has made extensive progress in expediting the manufacture of prefabricated components at offsite plants. However, this progress has not translated to the assembly of the prefabricated components at the construction site. Case in point, sealing the joints between components to prevent air leaks requires the manual application of tape, caulk, or spray foam at the jobsite, and performance is highly dependent on the skills of the installer. To reduce assembly time and improve the airtightness and waterproofness of prefabricated components, we developed a sealant that can be installed at the plant and have its curing reaction triggered at the jobsite. Additionally, we used this opportunity to explore the use of bio-based feedstocks that are abundant and not used for food. We evaluated a series of force-triggered, bio-based, high strength, and fast curing sealants, consisting of a one-part heterogeneous system. These sealants are derived from formulations with ≥80% of bio-based components, consisting of a cardanol derived diepoxy that is microencapsulated in a polymer shell and embedded in a cardanol derived amine curing agent. The microcapsule shell allows separation of the reactive species in the one-part sealant allowing a fast-curing system to remain unreacted until the right trigger is applied. When the microcapsules are activated and broken by force, the highly reactive species mix and cure, exhibiting peel strengths up to 143 ppi. The open-air shelf stability of the sealant complexes was demonstrated by peel strength values of ~16 ppi when triggering the curing reaction even after being exposed for 8 months to open air and humidity. The successful on-demand triggering of curing reactions and the shelf stability provide efficacy of these force-triggered sealants for installation on prefabricated components, storage for months prior to delivery, and assembly at the jobsite. These force-triggered bio-based sealants for prefabricated buildings could result in lower installation time and cost as well as better performance than tapes and caulks at the jobsite.

Cortes Guzman, Karen [ORNL] (ORCID:000000028793468↗

Stations Tool for Automated Permitting (S-TAP) User Manual

The Stations Tool for Automated Permitting (S-TAP) is a spreadsheet-based plan review questionnaire designed to help automate and expedite the electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) permitting process. This manual goes into detail on the development of the tool and guidance for use cases of the tool.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations

Background: Short-term forecasts of infectious disease burden can contribute to situational awareness and aid capacity planning. Based on best practice in other fields and recent insights in infectious disease epidemiology, one can maximise the predictive performance of such forecasts if multiple models are combined into an ensemble. Here, we report on the performance of ensembles in predicting COVID-19 cases and deaths across Europe between 08 March 2021 and 07 March 2022. Methods: We used open-source tools to develop a public European COVID-19 Forecast Hub. We invited groups globally to contribute weekly forecasts for COVID-19 cases and deaths reported by a standardised source for 32 countries over the next 1–4 weeks. Teams submitted forecasts from March 2021 using standardised quantiles of the predictive distribution. Each week we created an ensemble forecast, where each predictive quantile was calculated as the equally-weighted average (initially the mean and then from 26th July the median) of all individual models’ predictive quantiles. We measured the performance of each model using the relative Weighted Interval Score (WIS), comparing models’ forecast accuracy relative to all other models. We retrospectively explored alternative methods for ensemble forecasts, including weighted averages based on models’ past predictive performance. Results: Over 52 weeks, we collected forecasts from 48 unique models. We evaluated 29 models’ forecast scores in comparison to the ensemble model. We found a weekly ensemble had a consistently strong performance across countries over time. Across all horizons and locations, the ensemble performed better on relative WIS than 83% of participating models’ forecasts of incident cases (with a total N=886 predictions from 23 unique models), and 91% of participating models’ forecasts of deaths (N=763 predictions from 20 models). Across a 1–4 week time horizon, ensemble performance declined with longer forecast periods when forecasting cases, but remained stable over 4 weeks for incident death forecasts. In every forecast across 32 countries, the ensemble outperformed most contributing models when forecasting either cases or deaths, frequently outperforming all of its individual component models. Among several choices of ensemble methods we found that the most influential and best choice was to use a median average of models instead of using the mean, regardless of methods of weighting component forecast models. Conclusions: Our results support the use of combining forecasts from individual models into an ensemble in order to improve predictive performance across epidemiological targets and populations during infectious disease epidemics. Our findings further suggest that median ensemble methods yield better predictive performance more than ones based on means. Our findings also highlight that forecast consumers should place more weight on incident death forecasts than incident case forecasts at forecast horizons greater than 2 weeks. Funding: AA, BH, BL, LWa, MMa, PP, SV funded by National Institutes of Health (NIH) Grant 1R01GM109718, NSF BIG DATA Grant IIS-1633028, NSF Grant No.: OAC-1916805, NSF Expeditions in Computing Grant CCF-1918656, CCF-1917819, NSF RAPID CNS-2028004, NSF RAPID OAC-2027541, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 75D30119C05935, a grant from Google, University of Virginia Strategic Investment Fund award number SIF160, Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) under Contract No. HDTRA1-19-D-0007, and respectively Virginia Dept of Health Grant VDH-21-501-0141, VDH-21-501-0143, VDH-21-501-0147, VDH-21-501-0145, VDH-21-501-0146, VDH-21-501-0142, VDH-21-501-0148. AF, AMa, GL funded by SMIGE - Modelli statistici inferenziali per governare l'epidemia, FISR 2020-Covid-19 I Fase, FISR2020IP-00156, Codice Progetto: PRJ-0695. AM, BK, FD, FR, JK, JN, JZ, KN, MG, MR, MS, RB funded by Ministry of Science and Higher Education of Poland with grant 28/WFSN/2021 to the University of Warsaw. BRe, CPe, JLAz funded by Ministerio de Sanidad/ISCIII. BT, PG funded by PERISCOPE European H2020 project, contract number 101016233. CP, DL, EA, MC, SA funded by European Commission - Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology through the contract LC-01485746, and Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovacion y Universidades and FEDER, with the project PGC2018-095456-B-I00. DE., MGu funded by Spanish Ministry of Health / REACT-UE (FEDER). DO, GF, IMi, LC funded by Laboratory Directed Research and Development program of Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) under project number 20200700ER. DS, ELR, GG, NGR, NW, YW funded by National Institutes of General Medical Sciences (R35GM119582; the content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of NIGMS or the National Institutes of Health). FB, FP funded by InPresa, Lombardy Region, Italy. HG, KS funded by European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. IV funded by Agencia de Qualitat i Avaluacio Sanitaries de Catalunya (AQuAS) through contract 2021-021OE. JDe, SMo, VP funded by Netzwerk Universitatsmedizin (NUM) project egePan (01KX2021). JPB, SH, TH funded by Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF; grant 05M18SIA). KH, MSc, YKh funded by Project SaxoCOV, funded by the German Free State of Saxony. Presentation of data, model results and simulations also funded by the NFDI4Health Task Force COVID-19 ( https://www.nfdi4health.de/task-force-covid-19-2 ) within the framework of a DFG-project (LO-342/17-1). LP, VE funded by Mathematical and Statistical modelling project (MUNI/A/1615/2020), Online platform for real-time monitoring, analysis and management of epidemic situations (MUNI/11/02202001/2020); VE also supported by RECETOX research infrastructure (Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of the Czech Republic: LM2018121), the CETOCOEN EXCELLENCE (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/17-043/0009632), RECETOX RI project (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/16-013/0001761). NIB funded by Health Protection Research Unit (grant code NIHR200908). SAb, SF funded by Wellcome Trust (210758/Z/18/Z).

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Prospects for manned Mars missions

Studies called "EMPIRE" (standing for Early Manned Planetary-Interplanetary Roundtrip Expeditions) were initiated early in 1962 by the Future Projects Office for the Marshall Space Flight Center. These and related studies by other NASA centers were intended to bring to light the technical problems associated with such missions. The emphasis of these studies was on single and multiple planetary fty-bys, with some consideration given to planetary orbital and landing missions. The time period considered was the early 1970's. The contractors were Aeronutronic Division (Philco-Ford Motor Company), Lockheed Missiles and Space Company and General Dynamics/Astronautics. Studies relating to the time period 1975-85 were initiated in early 1963, by contracts with General Dynamics/ Fort Worth and Douglas Aircraft Company. Follow-on EMPIRE studies were carried out by Lockheed and General Dynamics/Astronautics. In addition, studies were made of a Mars Excursion Module by Aeronutronic, a Mars Mission Module (MMM) by North American Aviation's Space and Information Division, and an Earth Return Module (ERM) by Lockheed under the direction of the Manned Spacecraft Center. Complementary to these efforts were studies initiated by the Ames Research Center early in 1963 for a Manned Mars Landing and Return Mission. These studies were conducted by North American Aviation and by the TRW Space Technology Laboratories.

MARS /PLANET/↗

Utilization of Extraterrestrial Resources

Eight state-of-the-art briefings intended to bring members of the Working Group up to date in technical areas relating to future manned expeditions to the Moon and planets were presented at the Meeting of the Working Group on Extraterrestrial Resources held in Washington, D. C., September 25-26, 1962 by recognized authorities in their respective fields. Since it was felt that the material presented at the meeting would be useful for reference purposes, most of the speakers submitted summaries of their remarks for publication. This document is a collection of the material submitted. Contents: Status of Designs of Lunar Surface Vehicles; Hydroponics or Soilless Culture; Processing of Water on the Moon; Lunar Base Construction; Lunar Rocks as a Source of Oxygen; Water in Lunar Materials; Summary of Apollo and Lunar Logistics System Plans.

Source record↗

Computer graphics data conditioning

Graphics data conditioning program expedites engineering analysis of flight data and ensures timely correction of measurement errors. By adding interactive computer graphic displays to existing data conditioning programs, computational results are immediately visible, enabling on-line intervention and control of computer processing.

Hagenau, K. H.↗

Thermal radiation shields for piping in vacuum environments

System of thermal radiation shielding reduces radiant heat transfer in vacuum installations containing piping which carries working fluids. Method employs successive layers of spacers and rolled metal shields which are easily installed or removed, expedites efficient removal of entrapped gases, and adapts easily to small pipings.

Spagnuolo, A. C.↗

Behavioral, psychiatric, and sociological problems of long-duration space missions

In an attempt to isolate behavioral, psychiatric, and sociological problems expected on long- duration space missions, a literature search was conducted at the NASA Manned Spacecraft Center, Houston, Texas. Primary sources include short - term space flights, submarine tours, Antarctic expeditions, isolation-chamber tests, space-flight simulators, and hypodynamia studies. Various stressors are discussed including weightlessness and low sensory input; circadian rhythms (including sleep); confinement, isolation, and monotony; and purely psychiatric and sociological considerations. Important aspects of crew selection are also mentioned. An attempt is made to discuss these factors with regard to a prototype mission to Mars. However, it is concluded that more experimentation under actual space conditions are necessary before such a mission should be attempted.

Nick A Kanas↗

Radar augmentation device

The radar augmentation device (RAD) serves to increase the radar response of a target body and thus expedite radar acquisition. The design and development of the RAD are discussed with particular emphasis on technical problems that were encountered and solved. Discussions of the mode of operation of the RAD and the ground test history are also included.

Riedel, J. K.↗

Functions and activities of the Arizona Regional Ecological Test Site

The Arizona Regional Ecological Test Site (ARETS) project and its efforts to coordinate and transfer satellite remote sensing techniques to solving earth resources and environmental problems in the Arizona area are discussed. Project objectives include: (1) establishing a multidiscipline resources and environment team in Arizona capable of applying satellite and supporting aircraft data to expedite remote sensing technology transfer to user agencies; (2) determine future resources and environment information needs for Arizona; (3) conduct coordinated multidiscipline experiments in the use of ERTS data; and (4) provide and recommend facilities, instruments, and training necessary to support the practical uses of remote sensing data.

Lepley, L. K.↗

Program management aid for redundancy selection and operational guidelines

Although this criterion was developed specifically for use on the shuttle program, it has application to many other multi-missions programs (i.e. aircraft or mechanisms). The methodology employed is directly applicable even if the tools (nomographs and equations) are for mission peculiar cases. The redundancy selection criterion was developed to insure that both the design and operational cost impacts (life cycle costs) were considered in the selection of the quantity of operational redundancy. These tools were developed as aids in expediting the decision process and not intended as the automatic decision maker. This approach to redundancy selection is unique in that it enables a pseudo systems analysis to be performed on an equipment basis without waiting for all designs to be hardened.

Hodge, P. W.↗

Midday auroral observations in the oval, cusp region, and polar cap.

Evaluation of combined photographic and photometric measurements made on the 1969 NASA airborne expedition, yielding a description of the midday oval, cusp region, and polar cap auroral precipitation at low magnetic activity (Kp = 0, 1+). The observations delineate three regions through the description of the type of aurora observed and the photometrically inferred change in energy of the particles: (1) the region in and equatorward of the oval where greater than 3-keV electrons are associated with 6300 A/4278 A ratios less than or equal to 1 and with a diffuse glow or structured arcs; (2) the cusp region where electrons of several hundred electron volts and spikes of more energetic electrons are associated with 6300 A/4278 A ratios between 10 and 35 in broken, fragmented, rayed features and patches; (3) the polar cap where discrete earth-sun-aligned arcs have height luminosity profiles in 5577 A, 6300 A (forbidden O I), and 4278 A (N2(+)) that suggest incoming electrons with an energy spectrum of 2-keV characteristic energy above a low-energy (few hundred electron volts) background.

Romick, G. J.↗

The NASA Advanced Transport Technology Program.

Review of an advanced technology program initiated by NASA to expedite the development and application of advanced technologies to the next generation of subsonic CTOL jet transports. The major technical elements of this program include airframe and engine system studies for identifying technology needs, technology development for providing the necessary base in those areas of the aeronautical disciplines offering significant payoffs, and exploratory flight vehicles for validating advanced concepts and demonstrating specific benefits associated with civil applications. The possible benefits and application of the NASA-developed supercritical aerodynamic technology are discussed in some detail. Early experimental aerodynamic results obtained from wind tunnel and flight investigations are included.

Ayers, T. G.↗