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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Toward Accurate Modeling of Galaxy Clustering on Small Scales: Constraining the Galaxy-halo Connection with Optimal Statistics

Applying halo models to analyze the small-scale clustering of galaxies is a proven method for characterizing the connection between galaxies and their host halos. Such works are often plagued by systematic errors or limited to clustering statistics that can be predicted analytically. In this work, we employ a numerical mock-based modeling procedure to examine the clustering of Sloan Digital Sky Survey DR7 galaxies. We apply a standard halo occupation distribution (HOD) model to dark matter only simulations with a ΛCDM cosmology. To constrain the theoreStical models, we utilize a combination of galaxy number density and selected scales of the projected correlation function, redshift-space correlation function, group multiplicity function, average group velocity dispersion, mark correlation function, and counts-in-cells statistics. We design an algorithm to choose an optimal combination of measurements that yields tight and accurate constraints on our model parameters. Compared to previous work using fewer clustering statistics, we find a significant improvement in the constraints on all parameters of our halo model for two different luminosity-threshold galaxy samples. Most interestingly, we obtain unprecedented high-precision constraints on the scatter in the relationship between galaxy luminosity and halo mass. However, our best-fit model results in significant tension (>4σ) for both samples, indicating the need to add second-order features to the standard HOD model. To guarantee the robustness of these results, we perform an extensive analysis of the systematic and statistical errors in our modeling procedure, including a first of its kind study of the sensitivity of our constraints to changes in the halo mass function due to baryonic physics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Capturing Maize Stand Heterogeneity Across Yield-Stability Zones Using Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV)

Despite the new equipment capabilities, uneven crop stands are still common occurrences in crop fields, mainly due to spatial heterogeneity in soil conditions, seedling mortality due to herbivore predation and disease, or human error. Non-uniform plant stands may reduce grain yield in crops like maize. Thus, detecting signs of variability in crop stand density early in the season provides critical information for management decisions and crop yield forecasts. Processing techniques applied on images captured by unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) has been used successfully to identify crop rows and estimate stand density and, most recently, to estimate plant-to-plant interval distance. Here, we further test and apply an image processing algorithm on UAV images collected from yield-stability zones in a commercial crop field. Our objective was to implement the algorithm to compare variation of plant-spacing intervals to test whether yield differences within these zones are related to differences in crop stand characteristics. Our analysis indicates that the algorithm can be reliably used to estimate plant counts (precision >95% and recall >97%) and plant distance interval (R2 ~0.9 and relative error <10%). Analysis of the collected data indicated that plant spacing variability differences were small among plots with large yield differences, suggesting that it was not a major cause of yield variability across zones with distinct yield history. This analysis provides an example of how plant-detection algorithms can be applied to improve the understanding of patterns of spatial and temporal yield variability.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2014

Stellar chemical abundances: in pursuit of the highest achievable precision

The achievable level of precision on photospheric abundances of stars is a major limiting factor on investigations of exoplanet host star characteristics, the chemical histories of star clusters, and the evolution of the Milky Way and other galaxies. While model-induced errors can be minimized through the differential analysis of spectrally similar stars, the maximum achievable precision of this technique has been debated. As a test, we derive differential abundances of 19 elements from high-quality asteroid-reflected solar spectra taken using a variety of instruments and conditions. We treat the solar spectra as being from unknown stars and use the resulting differential abundances, which are expected to be zero, as a diagnostic of the error in our measurements. Our results indicate that the relative resolution of the target and reference spectra is a major consideration, with use of different instruments to obtain the two spectra leading to errors up to 0.04 dex. Use of the same instrument at different epochs for the two spectra has a much smaller effect (∼0.007 dex). The asteroid used to obtain the solar standard also has a negligible effect (∼0.006 dex). Assuming that systematic errors from the stellar model atmospheres have been minimized, as in the case of solar twins, we confirm that differential chemical abundances can be obtained at sub-0.01 dex precision with due care in the observations, data reduction, and abundance analysis.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

A non-intrusive optical (NIO) approach to characterize heliostats in utility-scale power tower plants: Sensitivity study

Power towers, a type of concentrating power tower technology, use a large number of heliostats to concentrate sunlight and produce renewable energy. Optical errors of heliostats can cause drastic losses in the efficiency of power-tower plants. Accurately measuring optical errors is crucial to assessing and improving plant performance. This analysis discusses an innovate non-intrusive optical (NIO) approach to measure slope, canting, and tracking errors by detecting distortions in the reflected tower structure in heliostat images. Further in this work a sensitivity study is carefully conducted to determine the uncertainty requirements to allow the method to calculate slope errors with an accuracy of 0.25 mrad. Measurement uncertainty sources include camera resolution and position uncertainty, tower position uncertainty, and number of collected images. Each uncertainty source is investigated to determine its impact on the accuracy of the slope-error calculation. A combination of theoretical results and experimental results obtained from data collected on a heliostat at Sandia National Laboratories is used to determine and validate uncertainty requirements. The analysis shows that a measurement uncertainty of 0.25 mrad can be realized by realistically controlling uncertainty sources when implementing the NIO method. It demonstrates the superior performance of NIO in performing in-situ optical characterization.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Construction of a Code Verification Matrix for Heat Conduction With Finite Element Code Applications

When establishing the pedigree of a simulation tool, code verification is used to ensure that the implemented numerical algorithm is a faithful representation of its underlying mathematical model. During this process, numerical results on various meshes are systematically compared to a reference analytic solution. The selection of analytic solutions can be a laborious process, as it is difficult to establish adequate code confidence without performing redundant work. In this report we address this issue by applying a physics-based process that establishes a set of reference problems. In this process, code simulation options are categorized and systematically tested, which ensures that gaps in testing are easily identified and addressed. The resulting problems are primarily intended for code verification analysis but may also be useful for comparison to other simulation codes, troubleshooting activities, or training exercises. The process is used to select fifteen code verification problems relevant for the one-dimensional steady-state heat conduction equation. These problems are applicable to a wide variety of simulation tools, but, in this work, a demonstration is performed using the finite element-based nuclear fuel performance code BISON. Convergence to the analytic solution at the theoretical rate is quantified for a selection of the problems, which establishes a baseline pedigree for the code. Not only can this standard set of conduction solutions be used for verification of other codes, but also the physics-based process for selecting problems can be utilized to quantify and expand testing for any simulation tool.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Measurement Uncertainty in One-Of-A-Kind Event Data Analysis

A golden standard in science is to repeat an experiment a statistically significant number of times, recording data using the same set of detectors and the same data analysis methodology. In such case experimental error includes both the range of true values generated by repetitions of the experiment, and measurement uncertainty caused by the detector. They are independent. It is a huge and too frequently used simplification, to assume that one can measure multiple repetitions of an identical experiment, resulting in identical true experimental value. Repetitions, as similar is it is experimentally achievable, have unavoidable built-in differences resulting in a range of the true values rather than in a single value. When modern, very sensitive and well calibrated measurement systems are used, this range is not negligible, and sometimes dominates over the measurement uncertainty. Range of true values depends on built-in differences in physics of the experiment. Stochastic physical processes result typically in a broader range of true values than non-stochastic processes do. Measurement uncertainty depends on a measurement method (properties of the detector not of the experiment). Modern measurement methods, including digital ones, frequently make the measurement uncertainty very small. When data from one–of –a kind experiment are analyzed, only the measurement uncertainty is reported. It provides no information about the range of true experimental values, neither about reliability of a reported data point. Reliability of a data point is in general independent from its measurement uncertainty. However, in practice reliable measurement methods frequently have high measurement uncertainty, while low reliability methods are applied to limit measurement uncertainty. Comparison of reliable data with high measurement uncertainty to not so reliable data measured with low uncertainty is discussed – in different scenarios different data analysis methods are applicable. Methods for data analysis from an experiment repeated statistically significant number of times are very well developed. They do not require a detailed expertise in physics of an experiment, nor in the properties of the measurement system used, and meaning of the reported uncertainty is well understood in any scientific community. It all changes when data from one-of-a-kind experiment is analyzed. Analyst’s expertise is required both in the physics of the experiment and in all aspects of the measurement system, all possible malfunctions. Data users must remember that only measurement uncertainty is reported from any one-of-a-kind experiment. Theory with simulations may provide estimation of expected built-in differences in the experiment, and by this of expected range of true values for a given experiment; yet measurement uncertainty can never be used in place of the range of true experimental values.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2024

Comparison of chamber beam geometry robustness to mispointing, imbalance and target offset for direct-drive laser fusion facilities

This study focuses on the optimization of beam chamber geometry designs for future direct-drive laser facilities. It provides a review of leading target chamber geometries, with a particular emphasis on random errors. Through comprehensive solid-sphere illuminations and analysis, we identify an optimized beam geometry design, highlighting its robustness and performance under realistic experimental conditions. Three major sources of random errors are evaluated, closely linked to experimental evaluations at OMEGA. The findings underscore the importance of optimizing the irradiation system alongside beam pattern considerations to enhance the efficiency and reliability of inertial confinement fusion experiments. We conclude that for a desired illumination uniformity of 1% in the presence of system errors, the split icosahedron design is the most robust. However, for a 0.3% uniformity goal, the charged-particle, icosahedron, and t-sphere methods exhibit similar performance.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Uncertainty about the Uncertainty [Slides]

A golden standard in science is to repeat an experiment a statistically significant number of times, recording data using the same set of detectors and the same data analysis methodology. In such case experimental error includes both the range of true values generated by repetitions of the experiment, and measurement uncertainty caused by the detector. They are independent. It is a huge and too frequently used simplification, to assume that one can measure multiple repetitions of an identical experiment, resulting in identical true experimental value. Repetitions, as similar is it is experimentally achievable result in a range of the true values rather than in a single value. When modern, very sensitive and well calibrated measurement systems are used, this range is not negligible, and sometimes dominates, in comparison to the measurement uncertainty. Range of true values depends on the physics of the experiment, while measurement uncertainty depends on the measurement method (properties of the detector not of the experiment). When data from one–of–a kind experiment are analyzed, only the measurement uncertainty is reported. It gives no information about the range, in which the true values of experiment would spread if the experiment was repeated. A frequently used approximation, that if a physical quantity is measured as a function of time, only measurement of this quantity, produces uncertainty is also in some real experiments fare to strong. Example: In reaction history time measurement uncertainty propagated to alpha dominated under certain conditions over the flux measurement uncertainty propagated to alpha. Reliability of a data point is in general independent from its measurement uncertainty. However, in practice reliable measurement methods frequently have high measurement uncertainty, while low reliability methods are applied to limit measurement uncertainty. Comparison of reliable data with high measurement uncertainty to not so reliable data measured with low uncertainty is discussed – in different scenarios different data analysis methods are applicable.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2021

Dark energy survey internal consistency tests of the joint cosmological probes analysis with posterior predictive distributions

Beyond ΛCDM, physics or systematic errors may cause subsets of a cosmological data set to appear inconsistent when analysed assuming ΛCDM. Here, we present an application of internal consistency tests to measurements from the Dark Energy Survey Year 1 (DES Y1) joint probes analysis. Our analysis relies on computing the posterior predictive distribution (PPD) for these data under the assumption of ΛCDM. We find that the DES Y1 data have an acceptable goodness of fit to ΛCDM, with a probability of finding a worse fit by random chance of p = 0.046. Using numerical PPD tests, supplemented by graphical checks, we show that most of the data vector appears completely consistent with expectations, although we observe a small tension between large- and small-scale measurements. A small part (roughly 1.5 per cent) of the data vector shows an unusually large departure from expectations; excluding this part of the data has negligible impact on cosmological constraints, but does significantly improve the p-value to 0.10. The methodology developed here will be applied to test the consistency of DES Year 3 joint probes data sets.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2020

Calibration of reactive burn and Jones-Wilkins-Lee parameters for simulations of a detonation-driven flow experiment with uncertainty quantification

Here, uncertainties in the explosive-specific parameters of the Jones-Wilkins-Lee (JWL) equation of state (EOS) are carefully considered in hydrodynamic simulations of an explosive experiment to minimize the error in the flow prediction. Experimental data of the leading shock position in the transverse direction over time serves as the prediction metric for quantifying simulation prediction error. The uncertainty quantification technique, global sensitivity analysis, is utilized to determine the JWL parameters to which the transverse shock propagation is most sensitive. A polynomial response surface (PRS) is constructed in the space of the most influential JWL parameters, and the point of minimum error between the experimental data and the PRS yields calibrated JWL parameters for the experimental flow. The simulation results following the parameter calibration show good agreement with the experimental data. It was found that two significant parameters, the heat release per unit mass of reactant Q and JWL model exponent R 1 are strongly related, which makes it difficult to identify accurate values.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Processing Aleatory and Epistemic Uncertainties in Experimental Data From Sparse Replicate Tests of Stochastic Systems for Real-Space Model Validation

This paper presents a practical methodology for propagating and processing uncertainties associated with random measurement and estimation errors (that vary from test-to-test) and systematic measurement and estimation errors (uncertain but similar from test-to-test) in inputs and outputs of replicate tests to characterize response variability of stochastically varying test units. Also treated are test condition control variability from test-to-test and sampling uncertainty due to limited numbers of replicate tests. These aleatory variabilities and epistemic uncertainties result in uncertainty on computed statistics of output response quantities. The methodology was developed in the context of processing experimental data for “real-space” (RS) model validation comparisons against model-predicted statistics and uncertainty thereof. The methodology is flexible and sufficient for many types of experimental and data uncertainty, offering the most extensive data uncertainty quantification (UQ) treatment of any model validation method the authors are aware of. It handles both interval and probabilistic uncertainty descriptions and can be performed with relatively little computational cost through use of simple and effective dimension- and order-adaptive polynomial response surfaces in a Monte Carlo (MC) uncertainty propagation approach. A key feature of the progressively upgraded response surfaces is that they enable estimation of propagation error contributed by the surrogate model. Sensitivity analysis of the relative contributions of the various uncertainty sources to the total uncertainty of statistical estimates is also presented. Finally, the methodologies are demonstrated on real experimental validation data involving all the mentioned sources and types of error and uncertainty in five replicate tests of pressure vessels heated and pressurized to failure. Simple spreadsheet procedures are used for all processing operations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2018

Phase and Relaxation Transitions in Poly(tetrafluoroetylene)

Comparative analysis of phase and relaxation transitions in poly(tetrafluoroethylene) by differential scanning calorimetry and dynamic mechanical analysis has been carried out. Elimination of procedural errors in the first case has allowed us to obtain true values of thermodynamic parameters for phase transitions and reveal their nature. Quantitative analysis of heat capacity peak profile was performed on the basis of smeared first-order phase transition theory and relaxation glass transition has been characterized.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2018

Two-Step Estimation in a Heteroscedastic Linear Regression Model

We study the problem of estimating a parameter in some heteroscedastic linear regression model in the case where the regressors consist of all order statistics based on the sample of identically distributed not necessarily independent observations with finite second moment. It is assumed that the random errors depend on the parameter and distributions of the corresponding regressors. We propose a two-step procedure for finding explicit asymptotically normal estimators.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Flow condensation heat transfer performance of natural and emerging synthetic refrigerants

There is great interest in predicting flow condensation heat transfer for lower global warming potential (GWP) fluids. This paper analyzes the efficacy of common flow condensation correlations developed for particular fluids in order to identify their suitability to predict heat transfer performance of low GWP fluids. Condensation heat transfer data were extracted from the literature, including 19 papers and 1,473 data points for natural refrigerants [i.e., ammonia (R717), CO 2 (R744), propane (R290), isobutane (R600a)] and 35 papers and 5,030 data points for synthetic refrigerants [i.e., R12, R1234yf, R1234ze(E), R1234ze(Z), R22, R32, R41, R123, R125, R134a, R142b, R152a, R161, R404A, R410A, R448A, R449A, R450A, R452B, R454C, R455A, R513A] encompassing tube diameters of 0.1–11.5 mm, mass fluxes of 55–1200 kg/m2s, and saturation temperatures of -25°C–65°C. Correlations analyzed included Akers et al. (1959), Cavallini et al. (2006, 2011), Kim and Mudawar (2013), Macdonald and Garimella (2016), Shah (1979, 2009, 2013, 2016) and Traviss et al. (1973) for smooth tubes and Chamra et al. (2005) and Kedzierski and Goncalves (1999) for enhanced tubes. Since most studies did not report wall temperature, correlations which relied on wall temperature directly or indirectly were excluded from the analysis. For synthetic refrigerants, mean average error (MAE) ranged from 6%–257%, and Cavallini et al. (2011) and Kim and Mudawar (2013) were the best predictors for emerging synthetic refrigerants. Furthermore, the Kim and Mudawar (2013) correlation was found to best predict the heat transfer performance for propane and R600a data, but most correlations did not accurately predict ammonia and CO 2 flow condensation.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2018

Local and distant relationships between amyloid, tau and neurodegeneration in Alzheimer's Disease

The relationships between β-amyloid (Aβ), tau and neurodegeneration within Alzheimer's Disease pathogenesis are not fully understood. To explore these associations in vivo, we evaluated 30 Aβ PET-positive patients (mean ± sd age 62.4 ± 8.3) with mild probable AD and 12 Aβ PET-negative healthy controls (HC) (mean ± sd age 77.3 ± 6.9) as comparison. All participants underwent 3 T MRI, 11C-PiB (Aβ) PET and 18FAV1451 (tau) PET. Multimodal correlation analyses were run at both voxel- and region-of-interest levels. 11C-PiB retention in AD showed the most diffuse uptake pattern throughout association neocortex, whereas 18F-AV1451 and gray matter volume reduction (GMR) showed a progressive predilection for posterior cortices (p < 0.05 Family-Wise Error-[FWE]-corrected). Voxel-level analysis identified negative correlations between 18F-AV1451 and gray matter peaking in medial and infero-occipital regions (p < 0.01 False Discovery Rate-[FDR]-corrected). 18F-AV1451 and 11C-PiB were positively correlated in right parietal and medial/inferior occipital regions (p < 0.001 uncorrected). 11C-PiB did not correlate with GMR at the voxel-level. Regionally, 18F-AV1451 was largely associated with local/adjacent GMR whereas frontal 11C-PiB correlated with GMR in posterior regions. These findings suggest that, in mild AD, tau aggregation drives local neurodegeneration, whereas the relationships between Aβ and neurodegeneration are not region specific and may be mediated by the interaction between Aβ and tau.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Analysis of calibration data for the uranium active neutron coincidence counting collar with attention to errors in the measured neutron coincidence rate

The declared linear density of 238 U and 235 U in fresh low enriched uranium light water reactor fuel assemblies can be verified for nuclear safeguards purposes using a neutron coincidence counter collar in passive and active mode, respectively. The active mode calibration of the Uranium Neutron Collar - Light water reactor fuel (UNCL) instrument is normally performed using a non-linear fitting technique. The fitting technique relates the measured neutron coincidence rate (the predictor) to the linear density of 235 U (the response) in order to estimate model parameters of the nonlinear Parte equation, which traditionally is used to model the calibration data. Alternatively, following a simple data transformation, the fitting can also be performed using standard linear fitting methods. This article compares performance of the nonlinear technique to the linear technique, using a range of possible error variance magnitudes in the measured neutron coincidence rate. We develop the required formalism and then apply the traditional (nonlinear) and alternative approaches (linear) to the same experimental and corresponding simulated representative datasets. Here, we find that, in this context, because of the magnitude of the errors in the predictor, it is preferable not to transform to a linear model, and it is preferable not to adjust for the errors in the predictor when inferring the model parameters.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2018

A hybrid embedded discrete fracture model for simulating tight porous media with complex fracture systems

Numerical simulation considering complex fracture networks in tight oil reservoir becomes a hot issue during these years. Recently, embedded discrete fracture model (EDFM) shows great advantages over the DFM approaches in both calculation efficiency and simplicity of simulation workflow. EDFM has been widely used in tight oil/gas natural energy or enhanced oil recovery (EOR) development. If a large number of small-scale natural fractures exist in reservoir, the calculation efficiency of EDFM method may decrease. A new hybrid simulation model combining the EDFM and dual porosity (DP) model is proposed. The large-scale fractures are dealt with EDFM method while small scale fractures are dealt with DP model. Considering the low permeability of matrix, transient transfer between matrix and natural fracture is considered. The proposed hybrid model is validated compared with the local grid refinement (LGR) model and EDFM-MINC model, and the difference between transient transfer and pseudo-steady-state transfer effect on production is presented. Finally, two test cases are presented, and the sensitivity of some key parameters are investigated. Result shows that the new simulation model has higher calculation efficiency than LGR and EDFM-MINC models. Meanwhile, it honors a good accuracy. The pseudo-steady-state transfer between matrix and natural fracture leads to big error in tight oil production performance analysis both in single phase and two phases flow. Low matrix permeability and big matrix size increase the production difference between pseudo-steady-state transfer and transient transfer models. The proposed model can simulate reservoirs considering stochastic permeability distribution.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Forecasting of municipal solid waste quantity in a developing country using multivariate grey models

Highlights: • Grey model can be used to forecast MSW quantity accurately with the limited data. • Prediction interval overcomes the uncertainty of MSW forecast effectively. • A multivariate model gives accuracy associated with factors affecting MSW quantity. • Population, urbanization, employment and household size play role for MSW quantity. - Abstract: In order to plan, manage and use municipal solid waste (MSW) in a sustainable way, accurate forecasting of MSW generation and composition plays a key role. It is difficult to carry out the reliable estimates using the existing models due to the limited data available in the developing countries. This study aims to forecast MSW collected in Thailand with prediction interval in long term period by using the optimized multivariate grey model which is the mathematical approach. For multivariate models, the representative factors of residential and commercial sectors affecting waste collected are identified, classified and quantified based on statistics and mathematics of grey system theory. Results show that GMC (1, 5), the grey model with convolution integral, is the most accurate with the least error of 1.16% MAPE. MSW collected would increase 1.40% per year from 43,435–44,994 tonnes per day in 2013 to 55,177–56,735 tonnes per day in 2030. This model also illustrates that population density is the most important factor affecting MSW collected, followed by urbanization, proportion employment and household size, respectively. These mean that the representative factors of commercial sector may affect more MSW collected than that of residential sector. Results can help decision makers to develop the measures and policies of waste management in long term period.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗