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At least 829 records · Page 46

Analysis of Liquids Using the Submerged Plasma for Isotopic Detection and Elemental Resolution (SPIDER)

We developed a sensor called the Submerged Plasma for Isotopic Detection and Elemental Resolution (SPIDER) probe, which uses an atmospheric pressure glow discharge below the surface of liquids to excite species in the liquid. Through emission spectroscopy of molten salts, liquid metals, and heavy water, we demonstrated the SPIDER probe’s high resolution, accuracy, and versatility. We successfully identified trace concentrations of transition and rare-earth metals in molten salts and detected the isotopic shift of the H β → D β emission line. Our analysis revealed unconventional spectral alkali line shapes, indicating two competing excitation modes: film explosion and droplet vaporization. The film explosion mode, characterized by dense plasma, exhibited self-reversal and broadband continuum emission, while the droplet vaporization mode, associated with diffusive plasma, produced narrow-line emissions. Furthermore, by analyzing circuit transients alongside individual plasma events, we observed that film explosions generate higher currents, likely due to a shorter plasma length as the current preferentially flows through the thin liquid layer. Altogether, our results highlight the SPIDER probe’s efficacy and flexibility, making it well-suited for online material quantification of liquids in extreme environments.

AES↗

Characterization of Spall in Hard Rock from Observations and Simulations of the Source Physics Experiment Phase I

In this work, spall signals from the Source Physics Experiments are presented, analyzed, and modeled for insight to the explosion source. The observed signal is similar in nature to nearby historical nuclear explosions, and the surface force-time history or velocity can be interpreted with the same model. We use the models for peak spall velocity, spalled mass, and spall depth and radius derived from historical nuclear explosions to parameterize the physical force-time history model from Stump (1985) and show that this parameterized model can be used for spall prediction. The spall signal is also investigated with a numerical continuum model that incorporates gravity. Peak velocity and dwell time are well predicted, and the multiple slap-down phases are captured if one includes a weak near-surface layer similar to the geologic observation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Rayleigh Wave Propagation in the Bighorn Mountains Region, Wyoming

Short-period Rayleigh waves, Rg , provide strong constraints on the depth of shallow seismic events and are of interest for monitoring small explosions. Characterizing the seismic sources that generate Rg requires an understanding of how shallow crustal structure affects Rayleigh wave propagation. Here, in support of these efforts, this study utilizes observed waveforms from small shallow explosions recorded on temporary seismic network deployments in the Bighorn region, Wyoming. We study regional near-surface geology by measuring changes in surface-wave amplitude and polarization during propagation through basins, foothills, and mountains. We develop additional insight by carrying out surface-wave eigenfunction analyses and numerical-wave simulations, which together reproduce many characteristics seen in the observed waveforms. Our results show how sedimentary basins in the Bighorn region allow for amplified prograde-polarized higher-mode and retrograde-polarized fundamental-mode Rayleigh waves, whereas adjacent mountains only support retrograde motion. These different modes provide distinct constraints on the Earth structure and source characteristics, potentially enabling targeted inversions in future studies. Finally, our findings provide insight into Rg propagation through complex near-surface geology, improving our understanding of shallow propagation and source effects that are relevant to explosion monitoring efforts.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Source Characterization at Low Yields from Physics Experiment One A

The detonation of a well-recorded coupled explosion at the well-characterized Nevada National Security Site, as part of Physics Experiment One, has provided us with an opportunity to compare and contrast methods and results of yield estimation and other event characterization methods. Yield estimates are made using several methods, including local/regional magnitudes, waveform envelopes, acoustic amplitudes, joint seismoacoustic yield, and moment tensors. We include in our analysis a discussion and comparison of applicability, calibrations, assumptions, and uncertainties involved in each. With the exception of magnitude-based methods, all the techniques were more or less successful in recovering the known yield. It is, however, useful to be cognizant of requirements and calibrations, such as station coverage, emplacement conditions, propagation characterization, and uncertainties, to apply the methods to other areas with less complete information. We demonstrate that we can be successful at monitoring low-yield explosions using a variety of methods assuming that the signal-to-noise ratio is adequate at recording stations, and that the material properties are taken into account. Depth estimates are also important, particularly if one allows the possibility of a surface explosion.

Pasyanos, Michael E. [Lawrence Livermore National ↗

Finite-Difference Simulation for Infrasound Generated by Finite-Extent Ground Motions

Underground explosions can produce infrasound in the atmosphere, and the wavefield characteristics are often governed by the ground surface motions. Finite-difference methods are popular for infrasound simulation as their generality and robustness allow for complex atmospheric structures and surface topography. A simple point-source approximation is often used because infrasound wavelengths tend to be large relative to the source dimensions. However, this assumption may not be able to capture the complexity of explosion-induced ground motions if the surface area is not compact, and appropriate source models must be incorporated into the finite-difference simulations for accurate infrasound prediction. In this study, we develop a point source representation of the complex ground motions for infrasound sources. Instead of a single point source, we use a series of point sources distributed over the source area. These distributed point sources can be equivalent to air volume changes produced by the ground motions in the atmosphere. Further, we apply the distributed point-source method to a series of buried chemical explosions conducted during the Source Physics Experiment Phase I. Epicentral ground-motion measurements during the experiments provide a way to calculate accurate distributed point sources. We validate and evaluate the accuracy of distributed point source approach for infrasound simulations by direct comparison with acoustic observations in the field experiment.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Seismic Event Characterization Using Full Moment Tensors on the Hypersphere

Moment tensor solutions provide insights into the deformation that has occurred in the source region of a seismic event and are therefore of great value in identifying different types of seismic sources, such as when monitoring for underground nuclear tests. Despite this utility, inversion of waveforms recorded by seismometers for their full seismic moment tensor is not yet routine, and development of robust methods to classify events based on this information is in its infancy. Here, we assemble an inventory of 1405 full moment tensor solutions that include explosive, earthquake, and collapse events, and investigate the use of anisotropic probability distribution functions on the 5D hypersphere to discriminate between these sources. Using a Bayesian classifier, we obtain optimal success rates of 98.4% across all events and demonstrate that modification of the prior probabilities provides a natural way to alter the balance between not missing desirable events (such as explosions) versus misclassifying large numbers of undesired events (such as earthquakes). The approach is specifically designed to progress from traditional, bipolar event screening metrics to more generalized event identification across multiple types of seismic sources. Despite current databases containing insufficient numbers of events to definitively demonstrate at present, we also find intriguing evidence of subgroupings within individual source populations on the hypersphere, for example, between chemical and nuclear explosions, raising the potential possibility of discriminating between these event types in the future.

Geosciences↗

Effects of Void Morphology on Detonation Initiation of PBX 9502

Accurate predictive modeling of high explosives in abnormal conditions, such as a fire, is critical to personnel safety. Modeling depends heavily on precise physical characterization of the high explosive in question. The aim of this thesis was to characterize the detonation response to shock and the microstructure at high-temperature (250°C) of PBX 9502 and use these data to attempt to model these results using a new reactive burn model called SURF (Scaled Uniform Reactive Front). In order to characterize the shock response of PBX 9502 at high-temperature a 1D gas gun experiment was designed and executed that provided shock to detonation transition data. These data were then used to do a preliminary calibration of SURF for PBX 9502 at 250°C. Small-angle neutron scattering (SANS) was employed to characterize the void morphology of PBX 9502 as a function of temperature. This was done in order to feed a modified version of SURF called physically informed - SURF (π-SURF) which uses the void size and quantity distribution data as measured by SANS along with the deflagration and detonation characteristics of a high explosive to inform the SURF model. The π-SURF model was then used to model both ambient and high-temperature PBX 9502 SDT response and the results were compared to the physically measured results. It was found that π-SURF works in ambient cases. At high-temperature, however, it was determined that not enough information is known about hot spot formation to use the π-SURF model for high-temperature scenarios.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

An Accelerated Approach for Computationally Efficient Evaluation of Deflagration Time During Abnormal Thermal Events

The challenges of modeling abnormal thermal events for explosives of interest to LLNL can be simplified by an accelerated approach to calculate Prout-Tompkins (P-T) parameters describing autocatalytic deflagration. Rather than depending on detailed modeling in multiphysics codes that include chemical reactivity (e.g. ALE3D), the accelerated approach can calculate P-T parameters based solely on experimental time of deflagration measurements for the explosive of interest. We compare deflagration time for five explosives with previously known P-T parameters at conditions typical of abnormal thermal events and demonstrate that the accelerated approach produces deflagration predictions with a maximum error of 3% and an average error of 1.7%. While the accelerated approach may not be applicable to all experimental conditions, it holds promise of rapid derivation of P-T parameters for accurate modeling of abnormal thermal events of interest to LLNL.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Inverting infrasound data for the seismoacoustic source time functions and surface spall at the Source Physics Experiments Phase II: Dry Alluvium Geology

This report presents the infrasound data recorded as part of the Source Physics Experiment - Phase 2, Dry Alluvium Geology. This experiment, also known colloquially as DAG, consisted of four underground chemical explosions at the Nevada National Security Site. We focus our analysis on only the fourth explosion (DAG-4) as we determined that this was the only event that produced clear source-generated infrasound energy as recorded by the DAG sensors. We analyze the data using two inversion methods. The first method is designed to estimate the point-source seismoacoustic source time functions, and the second inversion method is designed to estimate the first-order characteristics (e.g. horizontal dimensions and maximum amplitude) of the actual spall surface. For both analysis methods, we are able to fit the data reasonably well, with various assumptions of the source model. The estimated seismoacoustic source appears to be a combination of a buried, isotropic explosion with a maximum amplitude of ~2 x 10 9 Nm and a vertically oriented force, applied to the Earth's surface with a maximum amplitude of 4 x 10 7 N. We use the vertically oriented force to simulate surface spall. The estimated spall surface has an approximate radius of ~40 m with a maximum acceleration magnitude in the range of 0.8 to 1.5 m/s/s. These estimates are approximately similar to the measured surface acceleration at the site.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Seismic strain energy partitioning: estimating the strain energy of seismic body waves.

This report details a method to estimate the energy content of various types of seismic body waves. The method is based on the strain energy of an elastic wavefield and Hooke’s Law. We present a detailed derivation of a set of equations that explicitly partition the seismic strain energy into two parts: one for compressional (P) waves and one for shear (S) waves. We posit that the ratio of these two quantities can be used to determine the relative contribution of seismic P and S waves, possibly as a method to discriminate between earthquakes and buried explosions. We demonstrate the efficacy of our method by using it to compute the strain energy of synthetic seismograms with differing source characteristics. Specifically, we find that explosion-generated seismograms contain a preponderance of P wave strain energy when compared to earthquake-generated synthetic seismograms. Conversely, earthquake-generated synthetic seismograms contain a much greater degree of S wave strain energy when compared to explosion-generated seismograms.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Evaluation of Strain and Exhaustion Limits for Vessels

Design rules for impulsively loaded vessels (ILVs) have been incorporated in Section VIII, Division 3 of the ASME Code since 2019, based upon earlier development of ASME Code Case 2564. These rules are particularly applicable to explosive containment vessels (ECVs) used to fully or partially contain the combustion products of explosives. Uses of these ECVs include containment of suspect luggage at airports, bomb disposal, containment of experiments on explosive devices, and destruction of chemical munitions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Linear Seismic Source Equivalents in 3D Nonlinear Models: Effects of Embedded Small-Scale, Near-Source Structures

Gaining a proper understanding of how Earth structure and other near-source properties affect estimates of explosion yield is important to the nonproliferation mission. The yields of explosion sources are often based on seismic moment or waveform amplitudes. Quantifying how the seismic waveforms or estimates of the source characteristics derived from those waveforms are influenced by natural or man-made structures within the near-source region, where the wavefield behaves nonlinearly, is required to understand the full range of uncertainty in those yield estimates. We simulate tamped chemical explosions using a nonlinear, shock physics code and couple the ground motions beyond the elastic radius to a linear elastic, full waveform seismic simulation algorithm through 3D media. In order to isolate the effects of simple small-scale 3D structures on the seismic wavefield and linear seismic source estimates, we embed spheres and cylinders close to the fully- tamped source location within an otherwise homogenous half-space. The 3 m diameters spheres, given their small size compared to the predominate wavelengths investigated, not surprisingly are virtually invisible with only negligible perturbations to the far-field waveforms and resultant seismic source time functions. Similarly, the 11 m diameter basalt sphere has a larger, but still relatively minor impact on the wavefield. However, the 11 m diameter air-filled sphere has the largest impact on both waveforms and the estimated seismic moment of any of the investigated cases with a reduction of ~25% compared to the tamped moment. This significant reduction is likely due in large part to the cavity collapsing from the shock instead of being solely due to diffraction effects . Although the cylinders have the same diameters as the 3 m spheres, their length of interaction with the wavefield produces noticeable changes to the seismic waveforms and estimated source terms with reductions in the peak seismic moment on the order of 10%. Both the cylinders and 11 m diameter spheres generate strong shear waves that appear to emanate from body force sources.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Long-Term Surveillance and Maintenance Plan for the Salmon, Mississippi, Site

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Legacy Management (LM) prepared this Long-Term Surveillance and Maintenance Plan (LTS&M Plan) for the Salmon, Mississippi, Site (the Salmon site) to describe LM’s plan and policy for future site activities. The Salmon site consists of 1470 acres in Lamar County, Mississippi, approximately 10 miles west of Purvis, Mississippi, and about 21 miles southwest of Hattiesburg, Mississippi. The site is located over a large subsurface salt formation referred to as the Tatum Salt Dome. Two nuclear tests (Project Dribble) and two gas explosive tests (Project Miracle Play) were conducted in the salt dome between 1964 and 1970. Salmon, the first nuclear test, was conducted on October 22, 1964, and created a cavity approximately 2700 feet (ft) below ground surface (bgs). The second nuclear test, Sterling, was conducted on December 3, 1966. The Sterling test and the two gas explosions—Diode Tube on February 2, 1969, and Humid Water on April 19, 1970—were all conducted in the cavity created by the Salmon test. The four explosions were conducted as part of the U.S. Atomic Energy Commission’s (AEC’s) Vela Uniform program. Testing at the site ended in 1970 after the second gas detonation. The tests resulted in residual contamination and postdetonation features that require long-term oversight.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Secure Storage: Historical Documentation of TA-08-0032, TA-11-0036, TA-22-0016, TA-22-0023, TA-22-0025, TA-22-0035, TA-37-0006, TA-37-0009, and TA-37-0020

The U.S. Department of Energy, National Nuclear Security Administration, Los Alamos Field Office (NA-LA), is pursuing the decommissioning and demolition (D&D) of facilities contaminated with high-explosives residues at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (Laboratory or LANL). This effort affects nine facilities associated with high-explosives and detonator research, development, and storage: Technical Area (TA) 8 Facility 32 (TA-08-0032), TA-11-0036, TA-22-0016, TA-22-0023, TA-22-0025, TA-22-0035, TA-37-0006, TA-37-0009, and TA-37-0020. All nine facilities proposed for D&D have been evaluated for listing in the National Register of Historic Places (NRHP) and determined eligible. NA-LA previously requested the State Historic Preservation Officer (SHPO) to concur with the NRHP-eligibility determinations of these nine properties presented in four reports: (1) TA-08-0032 was determined eligible for listing in the NRHP in the report, From Ranching to Radiography: An Assessment of Historic Buildings at Anchor West Site (TA-8), Vol. 1 (McGehee et al. 2008a). The SHPO concurred with this eligibility determination on November 26, 2008. (2) TA-11-0036 was determined eligible for listing in the NRHP in the report, ESA Division’s Five-Year Plan: Consolidation and Revitalization at Technical Areas 3, 8, 11, and 16, Vol. 1) (McGehee et al. 2003). The SHPO concurred with this eligibility assessment on June 22, 2003. (3) TA-22-0016, TA-22-0023, TA-22-0025, and TA-22-0035 were determined eligible for listing in the NRHP in the report, DX Division’s Facility Strategic Plan: Consolidation and Revitalization at Technical Areas 6, 8, 9, 14, 15, 22, 36, 39, 40, 60, and 69, Vol. 1 (McGehee et al. 2005a). The SHPO concurred with these eligibility determinations on April 18, 2006. (4) TA-37-0006, TA-37-0009, and TA-37-0020 were determined eligible for listing in the NRHP in the report, High Explosives and the Nuclear Stockpile: An Assessment of Historic Buildings at Magazine Area C (TA-37), Vol. 1 (McGehee et al. 2008b). The SHPO concurred with these eligibility determinations on April 17, 2008. In a letter dated January 24, 2020, NA-LA acknowledged that the D&D of these nine NRHP-eligible facilities was an adverse effect that requires resolution through mitigation. NA-LA proposed the use of standard mitigation practices as defined in the Programmatic Agreement (PA) among the U.S. Department of Energy, National Nuclear Security Administration, Los Alamos Field Office, the New Mexico State Historic Preservation Office, and the Advisory Council on Historic Preservation Concerning Management of the Historic Properties at Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico. The PA states that adverse effects to NRHP-eligible buildings and structures will be resolved according to the standard practices defined in Part II, Section 10, of the Laboratory’s Cultural Resources Management Plan, A Plan for the Management of the Cultural Heritage at Los Alamos National Laboratory, New Mexico (Purtzer et al. 2019), and Section 2.B of Appendix D of the PA itself. The standard practice documentation package includes the following components: (1) Interior and exterior photography and production of archival-quality digital photographs; (2) Documentation and curation of historically significant equipment and artifacts; (3) A list of all known drawings for the property; (4) Reduced-scale reproductions of selected drawings for the property; (5) A location map that shows the location of the property relative to the entire Laboratory property; (6) Reproduction of historical TA maps; (7) A TA map that depicts the footprint of each eligible and non-eligible facility; and (8) An expanded historic context that uses oral-history interviews, if available. On March 3, 2020, the SHPO concurred with the adverse effect determination and the mitigation plan. The documentation package, as previously described, is provided in Volumes 1 and 2 of this report.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Collaborative Research: Unravelling the Physics Associated with the Production of Extremely Dense Plasma States of Microscale (Final Report) Nanosecond-pulsed Discharges

The aim of this project is to study and establish the physical mechanisms that contribute to the formation of anomalously dense plasmas in high-pressure nanosecond-pulsed discharges. These discharges have a broad range of applications such as plasma-assisted combustion, plasma flow actuators, biomedical sterilization and exotic materials synthesis. The structure and formation of these discharges, producing high plasma densities of ~10 14 -10 15 cm -3 , are well-studied and understood. Fast-pulsed microscale high-pressure discharges can be driven to even higher densities of > 10 19 cm -3 , approaching warm dense matter conditions. The mechanisms that generate these plasmas have not been understood. Analysis of the warm dense matter state under laboratory conditions is an expensive and non-trivial endeavor. For instance, dense plasmas can be generated by electrical explosions of metal foils and wires. Plasmas generated after the explosion have a short lifetime and often present difficult conditions for diagnostics. Generation of dense plasmas was also achieved during high-voltage nanosecond pulsed discharges when the so-called explosive electron emission is obtained. Unfortunately, this process is very difficult to control for the studies of warm dense matter. In our recent study, we have shown that additional heating of plasma by lasers can further increase the density of plasma and even lead to the fully ionized state. This method, potentially, allows better control of the plasma parameters. In this work, we studied a second stage laser-heated micro-discharge using a self-consistent one-dimensional particle-in-cell Monte Carlo-collision (1D PIC-MCC) model coupled with Maxwell’s equations. We predicted the generation of a fully ionized plasma on the picosecond time scale. However, this model considered the plasma as an ideal gas despite the high pressure and the nearly fully ionized state. The ideal plasma model assumes that the dilute gas approximation is valid, where the inter-particle interactions are negligible. For charged particles this assumption holds as long as the shielded Coulomb potential assumption is valid. For very high plasma densities, this concept breaks down since the Debye sphere surrounding each charged particle no longer contains enough electrons to statistically provide the shielding of the single particle Coulomb interaction potential. At such densities, the plasma can no longer be described as ideal and non-ideal coupling effects need to be considered. In this report, we elucidate our recent work of developing a PIC-MCC model with improvements for non-ideal plasma conditions due to Coulomb coupling at high densities. In particular, we study the interaction of green light radiation and a dense microplasma, and explore the non-ideal plasma effects in this interaction. In this computational model, we implement the two most important non-ideal effects: ionization potential depression (IPD) and enhanced collision cross sections. Our primary goal is to study the physics associated with electromagnetic (EM) wave heating, also called the second-stage wave-heating, and establish the role of plasma non-ideality in this phenomenon. Our secondary goal is to improve the chemistry mechanism of the 1D PIC-MCC model by including a more detailed excited species collision treatment. At high pressures, stepwise ionization from excited species might play an important role in the ionization process. Previously, this ionization mechanism was neglected due to the excitation collision cross section of xenon being smaller than that of ionization. However, a preliminary study showed that the excited species density in the initial microplasma was an order of magnitude higher than the electron density. Therefore, my aim is to determine the significance of this additional ionization pathway to the plasma generation.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

LANL MPCL Measurement System Analysis: AMPTEC 630ES Igniter Tester / Ohmmeter

This comprehensive analysis aimed to evaluate the measurement capability of the AMPTEC 630ES Explosive Safety Igniter Tester, a critical tool for organizations engaged in the measurement of High Explosive components and related Electro-Explosive devices. With a history of notable calibration issues involving specific model numbers, the Metrology Program and Calibration Laboratory (MPCL) initiated an extensive Measurement System Analysis. The analysis's primary focus was to thoroughly quantify the various sources of measurement variability intrinsic to the calibration process. It centered on two pivotal aspects: repeatability (the variation observed when the same operator uses the same instrument) and reproducibility (the variation seen when different operators perform measurements). A secondary objective was to determine whether equipment usage and age had any impact on the instrument's performance.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Multi-phenomenology Yield Characterization

This report serves as the first delivery of a four-year applied science effort to transform and advance the error bounds for the yield estimate of an explosion. Each year’s delivery will be in this form, culminating in the submission of this work for peer review to a scientific journal. Importantly, the yearly progress reports can then also be viewed as expanding drafts working towards a formal journal article submission. For the first tranche of funding, we collaborated with Air Force Technical Applications Center (AFTAC) scientists to identify unclassified real-world data that demonstrate and validate our advanced error propagation methods. Collaboration includes visits to AFTAC and telecons. For this development, we illustrate the fusion of seismic, acoustic, optical, and surface effect signatures from an explosion. The mathematics and code being adapted to this specific application (Williams et al., 2021) involves physics models of multiple sensor signatures. We have also identified related physics models and have integrated them into code. Current methods of underground explosion yield estimation for the Threshold Test Ban Treaty (TTBT) have served the US treaty monitoring mission well for decades. A research objective of the Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation Research and Development (DNN R&D) office of the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) has always been to provide new technical capabilities for monitoring lower thresholds. The general model and error propagation code to be developed in this project is based on significant advances in error modeling and propagation needed to analyze data at lower detection thresholds. The second tranche of funding for this project began on May 1, 2022, and planned work for the second tranche includes: i) completing the integration of physical model code into the general error model framework; this code accommodates a wide range of linear/nonlinear source models, fixed/ random effects, and frequentist/Bayesian analyses (the purpose of which is not to dictate to users how to analyze data, but instead to allow users the maximum flexibility in their work); ii) illustrative application of code to identified data, and; iii) initial planning with AFTAC researchers on delivery of code to the Common Development Environment at AFTAC, and continued writing of the planned final journal article submission (year two of this progress report), with particular emphasis on descriptions of data identified for this effort.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Air-coupled tsunamis generated from impacts and airbursts: Our understanding before Hunga-Tonga Hunga-Ha'apai

The effort to prevent or mitigate the effects of an impact on Earth is known as planetary defense. A significant component of planetary defense research involves risk assessment. Much of our understanding of the risk from near-Earth objects comes from the geologic record in the form of impact craters, but not all asteroid impacts are crater-forming events. Small asteroids explode before reaching the surface, generating an airburst, and most impacts into the ocean do not penetrate the water to form a crater in the sea floor. The risk from these non-crater-forming ocean impacts and airbursts is difficult to quantify and represents a significant uncertainty in our assessment of the overall threat. We are currently working to better understand impact scenarios that can generate dangerous tsunamis. One of the suggested mechanisms for the production of asteroid–generated tsunamis is by direct coupling of the pressure wave to the water, analogous to the means by which a moving weather front can generate a meteotsunami. To test this hypothesis, we ran a series of airburst simulations and provided time-resolved pressure and wind profiles to use as source functions for tsunami models. We used the CTH hydrocode to model the various airburst scenarios to compare to the results of other simulations and provide time dependent boundary conditions as input to shallow-water wave propagation codes. The strongest and most destructive meteotsunamis are generated by atmospheric pressure oscillations with amplitudes of only a few hPa1 (mbar), corresponding to changes in sea level of a few cm. The resulting wave is strongest when there is a resonance between the ocean and the atmospheric forcing. A Proudman resonance takes place when the atmospheric disturbance’s translational speed (U) equals the longwave phase speed $\sqrt{gh}$ of shallow water wave. Coupling is strongest when the Froude number (Fr=U/c) is unity. A weather front propagates much slower than the speed of sound, so meteotsunamis are most common and dangerous in shallow bodies of water such as the Mediterranean Sea or Lake Michigan. By contrast, the blast wave from an airburst or crater-forming impact propagates at a speed faster than a tsunami in the deepest ocean, and a Proudman resonance cannot be achieved even though the overpressures are orders of magnitude greater. However, blast wave profiles are N-waves in which a sharp shock wave leading to overpressure is followed by a more gradual rarefaction to a much longer-duration underpressure phase. Even though the blast outruns the water wave it is forcing, the tsunami should continue to be driven by the out-of-resonance gradient associated with the suction phase, which may depend strongly on the details of the airburst or impact scenario. The open question is whether there are any conditions under which such an airburst-driven tsunami can be dangerous enough to contribute to the overall impact risk. We have also identified other potential mechanisms for airburst-generated tsunamis: 1) reaction force at the surface from the plume ejected into space, which carries significant momentum, 2) expanding toroidal vortices at the surface, which travel more slowly than the shock wave and can generate a Proudman resonance in relatively shallow ocean (such as continental shelf), and 3) steam explosion from seawater ablation by a “Type II” (Libyan Desert Glass-type) airburst in which the hot vapor jet descends to the surface. On January 15, 2022, the Hunga-Tonga Hunga-Ha’apai volcano, located approximately 60 km north of Tongatapu, the main island of Tonga, violently erupted with a powerful explosion, culminating the period of volcanic activity that started in December of 2021. This event and resulting tsunamis provided an existence proof for the air pressure wave coupling mechanism we proposed. It also suggests that it can be stronger and more significant over much greater distances than we contemplated, leading to global tsunamis associated with impact events on land as well as in the water. Large atmospheric explosions generate global Lamb waves with larger amplitudes, longer periods, and slower speeds than the local and regional blast waves we modeled prior to that event. This paper reviews our analysis and modeling of airburst-driven tsunamis prior to the 2022 Hunga-Tonga Hunga-Ha’apai tsunami, which was the subject of two presentations at the 2023 Planetary Defense Conference and is the subject of another paper currently in preparation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗