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DOE OSTI2024

A Novel Framework to Evaluate the Costs and Potential of Bioenergy in Decarbonization of the U.S. Economy

The long-term strategy of the United States targets reaching economy-wide net-zero emissions by 2050 and a carbon-neutral electricity grid by 2035 (U.S. Department of State and U.S. Executive Office of the President, 2021). Meeting these targets would require considerable changes to the energy system. Some key characteristics of illustrative net-zero energy systems include increased penetration of renewable energy and carbon sources, use of CO2 capture and storage (CCS) in hard-to-abate sectors, and a greater role for energy carriers such as electricity and hydrogen (Davis et al, 2018). Another common feature of such energy systems is the need for carbon dioxide removal (CDR) approaches (Horowitz et al, 2022). Across all these characteristics of net-zero energy systems, bioenergy and biomass feedstock is anticipated to play an important role. Biomass feedstock serves as a renewable carbon source. This can enable conversion of such feedstock into fuels and energy carriers for hard-to-abate sectors such as aviation. Indeed, the U.S. Government has a target to meet all jet fuel demand by 2050 from sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), where biofuel pathways are likely to have an important role (EERE, 2020). Bioenergy is also highly versatile with the possibility to convert feedstock into electricity, hydrogen, liquid fuels, heat or high-value products, based on biomass type, demand and technology availability (Clarke et al, 2022). Combination of bioenergy with CCS can also nominally deliver CDR (Fuhrman et al, 2023). As such, the share of bioenergy is expected to grow by at least five time across scenarios studied for the long-term strategy of the U.S. between 2020 and 2050 (Horowitz et al, 2022). Notwithstanding the role of bioenergy in the energy systems, its deployment, costs and scalability are influenced by a number of factors. Some of these factors pertain to policy interventions such as imposition of a binding decarbonization target either at an economy-wide level or the sectoral level. Resource availability and type of biomass feedstock also varies considerably across regions. From a technological perspective, the readiness of bioenergy conversion pathways is subject to high variability. This influences the costs of deployment. Moreover, the sourcing of feedstock, grid carbon intensity, and co-product handling approaches all affect the life cycle efficacy of bioenergy. The latter, in turn, is particularly important in determining the extent to which bioenergy with CCS or BECCS can effectively deliver CDR (Fajardy and Mac Dowell, 2017).

air emission↗

DOE OSTI2021

Analysis of Three Types of Collocated Disdrometer Measurements at the ARM Southern Great Plains Observatory

To better provide U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility’s disdrometer deployment strategy and support ARM precipitation-related projects, this study analyzes 18 months of drop size distribution (DSD) observations from six collocated disdrometers deployed at the ARM Southern Great Plains (SGP) site. Emphasis is placed on quantifying the uncertainties related to DSD and rainfall properties using different types of disdrometers and different pairing concepts. The instrument sampling errors are also discussed, which improves our understanding of instrument-specific impacts on rainfall measurements. The key findings are as follows: 1) All the disdrometers show consistent behaviors overall regarding accumulated precipitation, mean rainfall rate, DSD parameters, and radar reflectivity values; and 2) Strong agreement is shown between three disdrometer types in terms of their DSDs for mid-size drop range (D = 1 mm-4 mm). The two-dimensional video disdrometer performance meets expectations as the most accurate unit among all. The paired disdrometer shows a reduced statistical sampling error in terms of drop counts and other DSD properties. A concept of deploying two or more collocated disdrometers side by side is recommended for future ARM field campaigns.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Search for long-lived heavy neutral leptons in proton-proton collision events with a lepton-jet pair associated with a secondary vertex at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV

A search for long-lived heavy neutral leptons (HNLs) using proton-proton collision data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb −1 collected at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV with the CMS detector at the CERN LHC is presented. Events are selected with a charged lepton originating from the primary vertex associated with the proton-proton interaction, as well as a second charged lepton and a hadronic jet associated with a secondary vertex that corresponds to the semileptonic decay of a long-lived HNL. No excess of events above the standard model expectation is observed. Exclusion limits at 95% confidence level are evaluated for HNLs that mix with electron and/or muon neutrinos. Limits are presented in the mass range of 1–16.5 GeV, with excluded square mixing parameter values reaching as low as 2 × 10 −7 . For masses above 11 GeV, the presented limits exceed all previous results in the semileptonic decay channel, and for some of the considered scenarios are the strongest to date.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2022

The economic value of photovoltaic performance loss mitigation in electricity spot markets

Photovoltaic (PV) performance is affected by reversible and irreversible losses. These can typically be mitigated through responsive and proactive operations and maintenance (O&M) activities. However, to generate profit, the cost of O&M must be lower than the value of the recovered electricity. This value depends both on the amount of recovered energy and on the electricity prices, which can vary significantly over time in spot markets. The present work investigates the impact of the electricity price variability on the PV profitability and on the related O&M activities in Italy, Portugal, and Spain. Here, it is found that the PV revenues varied by 1.6 × to 1.8 × within the investigated countries in the last 5 years. Moreover, forecasts predict higher average prices in the current decade compared to the previous one. These will increase the future PV revenues by up to 60% by 2030 compared to their 2015–2020 mean values. These higher revenues will make more funds available for better maintenance and for higher quality components, potentially leading to even higher energy yield and profits. Linearly growing or constant price assumptions cannot fully reproduce these expected price trends. Furthermore, significant price fluctuations can lead to unexpected scenarios and alter the predictions.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Remote sensing and statistical analysis of the effects of hurricane María on the forests of Puerto Rico

Widely recognized as one of the worst natural disaster in Puerto Rico's history, hurricane María made landfall on September 20, 2017 in southeast Puerto Rico as a high-end category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale causing widespread destruction, fatalities and forest disturbance. This study focused on hurricane María's effect on Puerto Rico's forests as well as the effect of landform and forest characteristics on observed disturbance patterns. In this work, we used Google Earth Engine (GEE) to assess the severity of forest disturbance using a disturbance metric based on Landsat 8 satellite data composites with pre and post-hurricane María. Forest structure, tree phenology characteristics, and landforms were obtained from satellite data products, including digital elevation model and global forest canopy height. Our analyses showed that forest structure, and characteristics such as forest age and forest type affected patterns of forest disturbance. Among forest types, highest disturbance values were found in sierra palm, transitional, and tall cloud forests; seasonal evergreen forests with coconut palm; and mangrove forests. For landforms, greatest disturbance metrics was found at high elevations, steeper slopes, and windward surfaces. As expected, high levels of disturbance were also found close to the hurricane track, with disturbance less severe as hurricane María moved inland. Results demonstrated that forest and landform characteristics accounted for 34% of the variation in spatial forest spectral disturbance patterns. This study demonstrated an informative regional approach, combining remote sensing with statistical analyses to investigate factors that result in variability in hurricane effects on forest ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Assessment of vertical stability for negative triangularity pilot plants

Abstract Negative triangularity (NT) tokamak configurations may be more susceptible to magneto-hydrodynamic instability, posing challenges for recent reactor designs centered around their favorable properties, such as improved confinement and operation free of edge-localized modes. In this work, we assess the vertical stability of plasmas with NT shaping and develop potential reactor solutions. When coupled with a conformal wall, NT equilibria are confirmed to be less vertically stable than equivalent positive triangularity (PT) configurations. Unlike PT, their vertical stability is degraded at higher poloidal beta. Furthermore, improvements in vertical stability at low aspect ratio do not translate to the NT geometry. NT equilibria are stabilized in PT vacuum vessels due to the increased proximity of the plasma and the wall on the outboard side, but this scenario is found to be undesirable due to reduced vertical gaps which give less spatial margin for control recovery. Instead, we demonstrate that informed positioning of passively conducting plates can lead to improved vertical stability in NT configurations on par with stability metrics expected in PT scenarios. An optimal setup for passive plates in highly elongated NT devices is presented, where plates on the outboard side of the device reduce vertical instability growth rates to 16% of their baseline value. For lower target elongations, integration of passive stabilizers with divertor concepts can lead to significant improvements in vertical stability. Plates on the inboard side of the device are also uniquely enabled in NT geometries, providing opportunity for spatial separation of vertical stability coils and passive stabilizers.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Fatigue Testing and Characterization of Pre-hydrided Zircaloy-4 Cladding Tubes

The solubility of hydrogen in Zircaloy-4 (Zry-4) at the cladding operating temperature is near 100 wt. ppm. Above this solubility limit, excess hydrogen precipitates as δ-hydride platelets in the cladding material. Because of the effect of the thermal gradient across the cladding thickness on the migration and precipitation of hydrogen, hydride rims are often observed at the cladding outer surface; under excessive corrosion conditions hydride blisters are possible. It is well known that the fatigue of metal alloys, especially high cycle fatigue, is sensitive to the status of surface including the microstructure, roughness, and residual stress. Thus, the question considered herein, is whether excessive hydrogen pickup modifies the microstructure such that it has a degradation effect on the fatigue performance of cladding during operation. This report describes the evaluation of fatigue performance of a pre-hydrided Zry-4 cladding. A commercial Zry-4 was polished and pre-hydrided to 800 ppm and 1300 ppm H contents. The fatigue testing was conducted under strain control at 5 Hz with fully-reversed bending by using a cyclic integrated reversible bending fatigue tester (CIRFT). Six specimens with 1300 ppm and one specimen with 800 ppm were tested. Significant variation in test results were observed. While two of the 1300 ppm specimens failed with less than 1 ×10 5 cycles (at 0.32% and 0.41%), the four other samples did not fail over the strain amplitude range of 0.25% to 0.38%. Interestingly, the fracture initiation site of the failed samples was on the outside diameter (OD) surface rather than on the inside diameter (ID) surface as is typical for the as-polished cladding. This suggested a degrading effect of the hydriding process. Subsequently, three of the unfailed specimens were then further tested at ~0.43% to observe where failure initiation occurred. Significant variation was also observed in these three specimens. One specimen failed at ~9000 cycles while the two others failed at 43000 and 1.06 ×10 5 cycles. The performance here correlated to the location of failure initiation; failure initiated on the OD in the sample that failed after 9000 cycles while it initiated on the ID in the sample that failed after 43000 and 1.06 ×10 5 cycles. Flat features at the OD initiation sites suggest a brittle hydride feature on the surface of those samples was the cause of the degradation in fatigue performance, though the overall hydrogen levels in all samples was similar. A summary of all the observations is provided below: • The un-failed specimens with 1300 ppm H were cycled to failure with a higher amplitude near 0.43%. In addition, the fatigue-treated specimen tended to have a longer fatigue at the same induced amplitude. • Fractography revealed a mixed failure mode for the pre-hydrided specimen. Particularly, the specimen with fracture initiation site (FIS) located on the outer diameter surface of tube tended to have a shorter fatigue life than that of FIS on the inner diameter surface. • Etched cross section was shown to have hydride platelets aligned with tube longitudinal axis as expected, and the density of hydrides is at the similar level as in literature data. Meanwhile, a LECO procedure was applied for hydrogen concentration measurement, which showed the measured hydrogen contents are close to the nominal value. • With the polished cladding tube as baseline, O’Donnell-Lager (O-L) analysis showed that a decrease of about 50% in reduction-of-area (RA) would be needed for the O-L fitting to the fatigue data of 1300 ppm cladding. The suggestion for the next steps is provided.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Half‐Fused Diketopyrrolopyrrole‐Based Conjugated Donor–Acceptor Polymer for Ambipolar Field‐Effect Transistors

Abstract A novel building block, denoted as half‐fused diketopyrrolopyrrole (DPP) (9‐(3‐octadecylhenicosyl)‐8‐(thiophen‐2‐yl)‐7 H ‐pyrrolo[3,4‐ a ]thieno[3,2‐ g ]indolizine‐7,10(9 H )‐dione), in which one of the flanking thiophene units is fused to one of the DPP rings via a carbon‐carbon double bond at the N‐position is reported. The half‐fused DPP is successfully utilized as an electron acceptor to prepare the conjugated donor–acceptor polymer PTFDFT , which exhibits ambipolar semiconducting behavior in ambient air. Theoretical calculations and absorption spectral studies show that the backbone of PTFDFT is more planar compared to the reference polymer with conventional DPP units. As a result, PTFDFT shows a narrow bandgap and low lowest unoccupied molecular orbital level. The more planar backbone with fewer side chains favors the dense packing of the polymer chains of PTFDFT with a short π–π stacking distance (3.49 Å). Grazing‐incidence wide‐angle X‐ray scattering data further confirm the predominant edge‐on packing mode of the PTFDFT polymer chains on the substrate. As expected, the PTFDFT thin film shows excellent ambipolar semiconducting properties under ambient conditions, reaching 2.23 and 1.08 cm 2 V −1 s −1 for the n‐ and p‐channels, respectively. In addition, complementary‐like inverter with gain value as high as 141 is successfully constructed using the PTFDFT thin film.

Shi, Dandan↗

DOE OSTI2024

Applying a Phase-Separation Parameterization in Modeling Secondary Organic Aerosol Formation from Acid-Driven Reactive Uptake of Isoprene Epoxydiols under Humid Conditions

Secondary organic aerosol (SOA) from acid-driven reactive uptake of isoprene epoxydiols (IEPOX) contributes up to 40% of organic aerosol (OA) mass in fine particulate matter. Our previous work showed substantial conversions of particulate inorganic sulfates to surface-active organosulfates (OSs) by IEPOX decreases aerosol acidity and creates a viscous organic-rich shell that poses as a diffusion barrier, inhibiting additional reactive uptake of IEPOX. In this study, to account for this “self-limiting” effect, a phase-separation box model was developed to evaluate parameterizations of IEPOX reactive uptake against time-resolved chamber measurements of IEPOX-SOA tracers, including 2-methyltetrols (2-MT) and methyltetrol sulfates (MTS), at ~ 50% relative humidity. The phase-separation model was most sensitive to mass accommodation coefficient, IEPOX diffusivity in the organic shell, and ratio of the third-order reaction rate constants forming 2-MT and MTS (k MT /k MTS ). In particular, k MT /k MTS had to be lower than 0.1 to bring model predictions of 2-MT and MTS in closer agreement with chamber measurements, while prior studies reported values larger than 0.71. The model-derived rate constants favor more particulate MTS formation due to 2-MT likely off-gassing at ambient-relevant OA loadings. Incorporating this parametrization into chemical transport models is expected to predict lower IEPOX-SOA mass and volatility due to the predominance of OSs.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2020

Energy Storage in Long-Term System Models: A Review of Considerations, Best Practices, and Research Needs

Technological change and policy support have heightened expectations for the role of energy storage in power systems, creating a need to enhance representations of energy storage in long-term models to inform decision-making. Energy storage technologies have complex and diverse cost, value, and performance characteristics that make them challenging to model, but there is limited guidance about best practices and research gaps for energy storage analysis. This paper reviews the literature and draws upon our collective experience to provide recommendations to analysts on approaches for representing energy storage in long-term electric sector models, navigating tradeoffs in model development, and identifying research gaps for existing tools and data. The review focuses on national-scale models with technological, temporal, and regional detail given their prevalence in planning and policy, though many insights are transferable to other modeling contexts. It also offers guidance to consumers of model outputs on proper use and interpretation based on model strengths and limitations. In particular, this review demonstrates the importance of capturing how the values of energy storage and other resources change as the system composition changes (e.g. with different levels of storage, renewables deployment, and emissions outcomes). These considerations require model detail like high spatiotemporal resolutions and endogenous investments that global integrated assessment models and price-taker frameworks do not typically resolve. Research gaps include linking tools of different resolutions, developing reduced-form representations of value streams, incorporating hybrid energy storage and renewable systems, and representing longer-duration energy storage technologies.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

DOE OSTI2022

Embedding a critical point in a hadron to quark-gluon crossover equation of state

Lattice QCD simulations have shown unequivocally that the transition from hadrons to quarks and gluons is a crossover when the baryon chemical potential is zero or small. Many model calculations predict the existence of a critical point at a value of the chemical potential where current lattice simulations are unreliable. We show how to embed a critical point in a smooth background equation of state so as to yield the critical exponents and critical amplitude ratios expected of a transition in the same universality class as the liquid-gas phase transition and the three-dimensional Ising model. There are only two independent critical exponents; the relations α + 2β + γ = 2 and β(δ-1) = γ arise automatically, as does a relation between the two critical amplitudes. The resulting equation of state has parameters that may be inferred by hydrodynamic modeling of heavy-ion collisions in the Beam Energy Scan II at the BNL Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider or in experiments at other accelerators.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Determining the bubble nucleation efficiency of low-energy nuclear recoils in superheated C 3 F 8 dark matter detectors

The bubble nucleation efficiency of low-energy nuclear recoils in superheated liquids plays a crucial role in interpreting results from direct searches for weakly interacting massive particle (WIMP) dark matter. Here, the PICO collaboration presents the results of the efficiencies for bubble nucleation from carbon and fluorine recoils in superheated C 3 F 8 from calibration data taken with five distinct neutron spectra at various thermodynamic thresholds ranging from 2.1 to 3.9 keV. Instead of assuming any particular functional forms for the nuclear recoil efficiency, a generalized piecewise linear model is proposed with systematic errors included as nuisance parameters to minimize model-introduced uncertainties. A Markov chain Monte Carlo routine is applied to sample the nuclear recoil efficiency for fluorine and carbon at 2.45 and 3.29 keV thermodynamic thresholds simultaneously. The nucleation efficiency for fluorine was found to be ≥ 50% for nuclear recoils of 3.3 keV (3.7 keV) at a thermodynamic Seitz threshold of 2.45 keV (3.29 keV), and for carbon the efficiency was found to be ≥ 50% for recoils of 10.6 keV (11.1 keV) at a threshold of 2.45 keV (3.29 keV). Simulated datasets are used to calculate a p value for the fit, confirming that the model used is compatible with the data. The fit paradigm is also assessed for potential systematic biases, which although small, are corrected for. Additional steps are performed to calculate the expected interaction rates of WIMPs in the PICO-60 detector, a requirement for calculating WIMP exclusion limits.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Investigation of Reaction Pathways and Temperature Inhibition in Methane DBD Plasmas at the Princeton Collaborative Research Facility (PCRF)

The overarching goal of this research is to advance the fundamental understanding of plasma-driven chemical conversion of light hydrocarbons using dielectric barrier discharges (DBDs). Using methane (CH 4 ) as a model system, the primary focus is to elucidate the influence of DBD plasma properties and environmental temperature on CH 4 plasma chemistry by studying decomposition products of the gas effluent across a broad range of conditions using experimental instrumentation at the Princeton Collaborative Research Facility (PCRF) located at the Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory (PPPL). The insights obtained from this study are expected to form the mechanistic foundation for the design and optimization of plasma-catalytic reactions of light hydrocarbons for practical applications such as the recycling of production flare gas by transforming the uncaptured waste into value-added resources at the source of extraction, presenting a sustainable solution to a longstanding environmental challenge.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Sample of Massive Black Holes in Dwarf Galaxies Detected via [Fe x] Coronal Line Emission: Active Galactic Nuclei and/or Tidal Disruption Events

The massive black hole (BH) population in dwarf galaxies ( M BH ≲ 10 5 M ⊙ ) can provide strong constraints on the origin of BH seeds. However, traditional optical searches for active galactic nuclei (AGNs) only reliably detect high-accretion, relatively high-mass BHs in dwarf galaxies with low amounts of star formation, leaving a large portion of the overall BH population in dwarf galaxies relatively unexplored. Here, we present a sample of 81 dwarf galaxies ( M $\star$ ≤ 3 × 10 9 M ⊙ ) with detectable [Fe x]λ6374 coronal line emission indicative of accretion onto massive BHs, only two of which were previously identified as optical AGNs. Here, we analyze optical spectroscopy from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey and find [Fe x]λ6374 luminosities in the range L [Fe x] ≈ 10 36 –10 39 erg s –1 , with a median value of 1.6 × 10 38 erg s –1 . The [Fe x]λ6374 luminosities are generally much too high to be produced by stellar sources, including luminous Type IIn supernovae (SNe). Moreover, based on known SNe rates, we expect at most eight Type IIn SNe in our sample. That said, the [Fe x]λ6374 luminosities are consistent with accretion onto massive BHs from AGNs or tidal disruption events (TDEs). We find additional indicators of BH accretion in some cases using other emission line diagnostics, optical variability, and X-ray and radio emission (or some combination of these). However, many of the galaxies in our sample only have evidence for a massive BH based on their [Fe x]λ6374 luminosities. This work highlights the power of coronal line emission to find BHs in dwarf galaxies missed by other selection techniques and to probe the BH population in bluer, lower-mass dwarf galaxies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Cosmological Constant in Coherent Quantum Gravity

It is argued that quantum states of geometry, like those of particles, should be coherent on light cones of any size. An exact classical solution, the gravitational shock wave of a relativistic point particle, is used to estimate gravitational drag from coherent energy flows, and the expected gravitational effect of virtual transverse vacuum energy fluctuations on surfaces of causal diamonds. It is proposed that the appropriately spacetime-averaged gravitational effect of the Standard Model vacuum state leads to the observed small nonzero value of the cosmological constant, dominated by gravitational drag of virtual gluonic strings at the strong interaction scale.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Probabilistic Day-Ahead Forecasting Using an Analog Ensemble Approach for Wind Farm Grid Services

Wind resource assessment and wind power forecasting are used in research and industry to anticipate future power output at scales ranging from individual wind turbines to entire wind farms. Probabilistic day-ahead wind forecasting is useful for anticipating how a wind farm could potentially participate in the day-ahead market by providing upper and lower bounds for expected power generation, thus informing grid operators of its uncertainty. Understanding this uncertainty is part of a larger project focused on building a platform that combines efforts in weather forecasting, aerodynamic and economic modeling to create maximum value of a wind plant to better provide services to the grid. This effort is also known as the Atmosphere to Electrons to Grid (A2E2G) project. One method for producing a probabilistic forecast is through the analog ensemble approach (Delle Monache et al., 2011). This method leverages historical forecasts and their corresponding observations as a training data set from which future forecasts can be made. For some future forecast, the most similar historical forecasts (analogs) are identified on a regular time basis such as once per a 3-hour window. The most similar analogs, based on a metric such as root mean square error (RMSE), are recorded and their corresponding verifying observations are used as an ensemble member for this future forecast. Prior work in this area demonstrates improvements over raw Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) forecasts and shows skill similar to techniques such as logistic regression and machine learning (Delle Monache et al., 2013; Alessandrini et al., 2015). Here, we take the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model (HRRR) day-ahead forecast (0-36 hours) to create a probabilistic day-ahead forecast using an analog ensemble approach. The HRRR has an hourly temporal resolution, with a spatial resolution of 3 km. The 12 UTC HRRR model run is downloaded every day for one year from August 2019 - July 2020, with the first 11 months serving as a bank of analogs from which the forecasting algorithm can create a probabilistic forecast. Once downloaded, the original HRRR forecast is temporally interpolated to 5-minutes, aligning with both the temporal resolution of the observations as well as the timescale relevant for day-ahead power forecasts. The forecast is validated at the M2 tower at the Flatirons Campus of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) at a typical wind turbine height of 80 m. Variables such as wind speed, wind direction, and turbulence intensity are incorporated into the probabilistic forecast model and weighted according to their relative importance to the forecast. Based on metrics such as mean bias error (MBE), mean absolute error (MAE), and root mean square error, the analog ensemble forecast outperforms the raw HRRR forecast during the testing period of July 2020. Figure 1 illustrates an example day-ahead forecast compared against the verifying observations. The general variability and ramps are captured throughout the day, with potential to further improve the analog ensemble model through machine learning techniques.

numerical weather prediction↗

DOE OSTI2022

Determining the bubble nucleation efficiency of low-energy nuclear recoils in superheated C$_3$F$_8$ dark matter detectors

The bubble nucleation efficiency of low-energy nuclear recoils in superheated liquids plays a crucial role in interpreting results from direct searches for weakly interacting massive particle (WIMP) dark matter. The PICO Collaboration presents the results of the efficiencies for bubble nucleation from carbon and fluorine recoils in superheated C$_3$F$_8$ from calibration data taken with 5 distinct neutron spectra at various thermodynamic thresholds ranging from 2.1 keV to 3.9 keV. Instead of assuming any particular functional forms for the nuclear recoil efficiency, a generalized piecewise linear model is proposed with systematic errors included as nuisance parameters to minimize model-introduced uncertainties. A Markov-Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) routine is applied to sample the nuclear recoil efficiency for fluorine and carbon at 2.45 keV and 3.29 keV thermodynamic thresholds simultaneously. The nucleation efficiency for fluorine was found to be $\geq 50\, \%$ for nuclear recoils of 3.3 keV (3.7 keV) at a thermodynamic Seitz threshold of 2.45 keV (3.29 keV), and for carbon the efficiency was found to be $\geq 50\, \%$ for recoils of 10.6 keV (11.1 keV) at a threshold of 2.45 keV (3.29 keV). Simulated data sets are used to calculate a p-value for the fit, confirming that the model used is compatible with the data. The fit paradigm is also assessed for potential systematic biases, which although small, are corrected for. Additional steps are performed to calculate the expected interaction rates of WIMPs in the PICO-60 detector, a requirement for calculating WIMP exclusion limits.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2020

Characterization of Hanford LAW Phase 3 Glasses

This report provides analyses of glass compositions, wash solution compositions, and Product Consistency Test (PCT) leachate compositions for a series of simulated low-activity waste (LAW) glasses fabricated at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). These data will be used in the development of improved property/composition models for LAW glass at Hanford. Chemical analyses were performed on a representative sample of each of the quenched and sulfur saturated glasses to allow for comparisons with the targeted compositions. For some of the quenched glasses, measured concentrations of Cr₂O₃, K₂O, Na₂O, P₂O₅, and ZrO₂ were below the targeted values. For some of the sulfur saturated glasses, the measured concentrations of Al₂O₃, Cl⁻, Cr₂O₃, F⁻, K₂O, Na₂O, P₂O₅, V₂O₅, and ZrO₂ were generally low relative to the targeted values. A comparison of the measured compositions of the quenched and sulfur saturated versions of the study glasses showed that the measured concentrations of Al₂O₃, Cl⁻, and F⁻ were lower for most of the sulfur saturated glasses. The measured Cr₂O₃ and K₂O concentrations were markedly lower for the sulfur saturated versions of the glasses as compared to the quenched versions, which may indicate that these elements partitioned to the soluble sulfur salts. A set of modified glasses was received from PNNL later in this study. Chemical analysis showed that these glasses generally met their targeted compositions. The measured SO₃ concentrations were higher for most of the sulfur saturated glasses relative to those of the quenched versions, as expected. Chemical analysis of the wash solutions that resulted from preparation of the sulfur saturated melts identified Cr, K, Na, P, S, and V as the major elements in solution. With the exception of sulfur, this may explain why the measured concentrations of these components in the study glasses were generally below the targeted values. PNNL performed PCTs on quenched and canister centerline cooled (CCC) versions of the study glasses, as well as the modified glasses. The leachates were sent to SRNL for chemical analysis. Minor scatter in the measured values among the triplicate samples for each glass was noted. Several of the study glasses, both quenched and CCC, have NCi values that are greater than the immobilized LAW constraint of 4 g/L for B, Na, and Si.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗